now today's other top story, two navy seals are missing off the coast of somalia, underground officials a report one seal fell into choppy water trying to board a vessel, and then the other jumped into attempt a rescue, that is seal team protocol. search operations are ongoing well tensions are simmering with nearby yemeni houthi militants. texas has put up new razor wire and fences along two and a half miles of the border, with mexico to deter illegal migrant crossings. part of it now blocks access to a boat ramp to the city of eagle pass, used by border patrol to cyst -- in distress. that move was highlighted in the supreme court filing whether justice department, and then look at this. this floor you're about to see, that looks like lava, right? literally, residents of

grindavik, that's in southwestern iceland. they are evacuating in the face of nearby -- this follows a series of all small earthquakes and powerful eruptions last month. donald trump going after vivek ramaswamy, not over policy, rather rhetoric. actually not rhetoric, actually it's over a t-shirt. that story in just a moment. a very good day to all of you from msnbc world headquarters in new york, welcome everyone to alex witt reports. we begin with the very latest on the iowa caucus is now just one day away. five candidates on the home stretch braving frigid temperatures today, crisscrossing nine cities to convince voters to bundle up and go out in sub-zero temperatures at caucus time tomorrow night. in the new nbc des moines register media com poll confirms donald trump's dominant league and his supporters are bearing that out,

facing down the elements to hear him speak today. in fact, nbc's vaughn hillyard has been talking to them about the determination to show up. >> it was terrible, i couldn't feel my legs, couldn't feel anything. my nose was cold, i even had icicles on my glasses. because i want to see donald trump. obviously. and support him. and i think it shows character sitting out here in waiting to support him. >> there was a boss that i waited in a little bit, that was nice. but i was definitely long, cold. you could tell people, everybody just wanted to get inside, but it was worth it again. it might be cold but the energy is high, so they just want to get in. >> we have a panel of reporters ready to go for you throughout the day's developments. let's start with nbc's aly vitaly near fort todd, she's driving all over -- so ali, what is the haley campaign say, and what is the take on these new polls? >> look, they're feeling good about the new polls, alex.

the fact that we're driving across the state is a reminder of the fact that iowa is huge, but candidates have a lot of ground to cover and of course the weather is not cooperating with them as they do that, to the point where we were all the way out on dubuque on the eastern side of the state, and the haley campaign actually had to cancel the events they say because of dangerous weather conditions. we are of course being safe and careful out here on the road, but she will still be campaigning more towards des moines, that's where we're headed right now for two more events in the des moines suburbs later today, all of this meant to capitalize on the fact that our poll, other polls in recent days, find haley to be surging into second place. that's exactly where she wants to be. just to give you a sense of what we're hearing from voters after events, they are not trump voters, at least not anymore. some of them that we've met say they voted for trump in the past but they don't want to vote for him this time around. here's a little bit more about what they're saying about nikki haley and the state of this race. watch. >> what happens if it turns out

to be trump versus biden again, what do you do? >> i'm not gonna vote for trump. >> i'm not gonna vote for trump. >> we'll either vote for biden? >> that's a bit of a problem too. >> that's kind of a problem. >> and then the problem is, you end up staying home, and that's not good. >> is there an independent? is there someone else that might be on the ballot? >> and of course that's a question that we're asking to voters to. is what happens if at the end of this primary it ends up in pretty much the place that everyone assumes it could end up, and that's also why nikki haley when she's on stage at these events she is very quick to tell people do not complain about who you get as a nominee if you don't play in this primary. if you don't come out in this caucus state. and that's how she's trying to remind people that they need to show up, especially because they don't want to have complaints when it comes down

to elect general election day. the other thing that we're watching though of course is in our poll, despite the fact that haley is polling in second and it's within the margin of error, but the enthusiasm of her supporters may be lower and it could lend to the fact they need turnout in frigid temperatures, but it requires a lot of enthusiasm to actually get that. >> 100% right. safe travels, my friend, we'll talk to you next hour. i have a bit of a question for you in a second, so don't go far. in -- donald trump speaking right now at amanda rally in simpson college, nbc's garrett haake is there for us. garrett, trump supporters all brave the sub-zero temperatures to hear their candidate, what are you hearing from them? are we hearing anything from the new from trump by the way? >> alex, trump is giving what he calls the long version of his stump speech today, he's been on quite this stem winder -- snake palm that many of us became familiar with in 2016, talking about the border, immigration, his favorite nicknames for democrats in

2020. he keeps coming back to attacking nikki haley, i think the ali vitali's point he has a new target here, a new person in second place that he's trying to handicap. he's all over her polls, describing her as a globalist, really making sure that there's some overlap between the folks who are gonna show up at the caucus for her and his supporters in the room. and let me tell you, those supporters are committed, no matter how cold it gets on monday. listen to this. >> is there any amount of cold that will keep people from caucusing from trump monday night? >> alaska cold might slow us down, but not i'll occult. >> an astronomical probably 80 below. >> you feel the same? >> yeah. >> it does not get this cold in california, i know that for a fact. how committed are you to come out tomorrow night if it's negative 30 degrees? >> still committed. >> no matter what? >> yeah. >> what about you? >> same. >> alex, don't take the word

for it, that sentiment is backed up by the data in the new poll with the des moines register, which finds trump supporters are b far the most enthusiastic about their candidatand least likely to change who the candidate is at this late hour. -- that's what they expect to see, that's demonstrated by the people who came out this room, here. to hear the long speech today, all of them expect to show up tomorrow night. >> and lucky you -- long speech underway. you're gonna see it for you, i've got another question for you in just a moment. let's go down to dasha burns in cedar rapids, following the desantis campaign, which is downplaying the results of this final iowa poll placing him in third. dasha, what is the mood on team desantis today? >> well, look, alex, knives out for nikki haley on all fronts. from donald trump and from florida governor ron desantis, who is a far cry from where he was months ago when he was saying with confidence that he was going to win the iowa caucuses. now he is saying that maybe second place, maybe they're not the deciding factor at all.

he's really been walking back and lowering those expectations over recent months. he certainly did not expect to be fighting for second place at this point in time, and earlier today he went after haley not just on policy, not just on their differences, but also on what we saw in that poll, who her voter vic bass really is. take a listen. >> i have the best path forward for the party, to both unite the party, and you have to have somebody who can energize the base. i think the trump obviously has done that in the past. i've done that in florida are, i can do it naturally. haley cannot do that. she is not getting support from conservatives, she's relying on democratic-leaning independents for her support in the primary, and that's not the way that you can win and galvanize support from the party faithful. >> he does not have the enthusiasm of former president trump, but his enthusiasm is greater than that of nikki haley. the other thing that the team hopes they have going for them

is the ground game that they have had in iowa since early last year they've really built out a massive infrastructure, port allot of money and resources, staff, volunteers, hey door knocker's that have been really trying to get those caucus goers rallied to their caucus locations tomorrow night. they feel like that could be the make or break between second and third place, which could be the make or break between whether or not he gets frozen out of this race, alex. >> and whether or not there is a continuing ability, there. let's bring in right now national politics reporter axios sofia guy, sophia you wrote about how some i would democrats, some independents, are planning to crash that states republican caucus -- republicans for today. they're going to try to vote for nikki haley, mostly they're voting against former president trump. how do you think that could impact monday night's results? >> yeah, look, this could be huge. i spoke to one iowa strategist who said that as few as 5 to

7000 democrats or independents who register as republicans and te for hailie could be the difference between a second and third place finish for her. and of course we don't know exactly how many voters will do this, but there is precedent for this. there were 57,000 republicans who came into the democratic party in 2008, so that this has happened. it is legal. and it is an x-factor that could really boost nikki haley tomorrow. >> okay, that is interesting. all of you -- back, dasha i forgot you didn't i didn't ask you to stay there. i'm glad you didn't leave. i have a couple questions, and this is going to be quick. first to you, ali. take a look at this headline in washington post, i reveals the -- running forecond place to talk trump. any hit nikki haley -- grim indignity since her own voters are not so enthusiastic according to this new poll?

>> i think it's left the enthusiasm, but when i see that headline a point to something else that we saw in this new poll that we had overnight, which is the general idea that -- has gone up. of course that's what happens when volker start taking a look at candidates that might not have looked known anything about. but it's different what happens when you look at a republican primary and you watch the former president, who is still effectively the standard bearer of this party, at least until someone proves that he isn't. when he senses iran continues to attack nikki haley, then you add on top of that what dasha was talking about which is not just ron desantis, but also vivek ramaswamy, and then maybe inadvertently chris christie on that hot mic. people have their arrows drawn towards her right now. she's facing a lot of attacks in a lot of scrutiny, and that might explain why we're seeing consistently high unfavorability ratings. that is a trend in the negative direction. haley campaign choosing to focus on the trends that they prefer to see, which is that polls show her with upper

momentum in a horse race setting, but at the same time unfavorability is something we're looking at here to, and i think that's one of the things that i see burying up the headline that you talk about. >> garrett, we also have is new cbs poll, and that shows haley doing the best in a hypothetical with biden. has the trump camp reacted to that this poll yet? as you called it a phony poll yet? even though he is leading biden t, but we have to know, just by two points. >> yeah, there's very little donald trump likes to talk about -- perhaps what he calls fake polls. i think that falls into that category, he talked often about polls that show haley outperforming him against joe biden. this is something where it's the trump campaign, and i think even the biden campaign would largely agree, that it so deep theoretical with haley's second place -- early nominating states. someone who hasn't even been through the wringer that it takes to be nominated, is -- someone who has. i think the trump campaign looks at that as a theoretical

exercise and a talking point for nikki haley, but not something they're particularly concerned about right now, which is winning the primaries and caucuses that it takes to actually get to be the person who takes on joe biden in november. >> point well taken there. dasha, desantis is planning to skip the traditional post iowa trip to new hampshire. he's going to head straight for south carolina. if he loses monday night, could we see him endorsing donald trump by the end of the week? >> it's a great question. without the benefit of a crystal ball, here is what i can tell you. the operatives that i've spoken to have really complemented desantis's ground game here, they said his operation in iowa is probably the closest that a republican has come to rivaling obama's legendary 2008 iowa operation. they've written books about that, right, which is a huge compliment. but because he's had this basically textbook operation here, he's gotten the right endorsements, governor kim reynolds, bob vander plaats, an evangelical leader here, he's

put all the money and resources here. because of all that, if he comes up short, if he does not pull off strong second, if he comes in third place after all of this, it is going to be very very difficult for him to argue viability going forward. if you've done all the right things and you're not making it, then people are going to have to say what's the problem here, if not the candidate? if the product is just not selling, even if you have all the right pieces in place, the problem has to be the candidate and moving forward is just not going to be viable. as for endorsing donald trump after all their back and forth, i don't know. but listen, it's going to be really make-or-break for him monday night. iowa is the place for him. if he can't do it here, i don't know where he can. >> okay, sophia lastly to you, because you noted on x how trump is now criticizing vivek ramaswamy publicly for the first time, and it's all

because of t-shirts? apparently team ramaswamy is handing out this t-shirt you can see here which says save trump, vote vivek. can you explain this? is it fair to say that vivek needs trump more than trump needs vivek? why would he bite the hand that feeds him, in the sense? >> i think you're absolutely right. he is trying to use trump in many ways to win some votes, and say that look, the biden administration is so against him they are not going to allow trump back into the white house, and so you should vote for me to vote that guy. that matches with what he's been doing for the last couple months, campaigning to the right of even trump. trump on the other hand has been fairly friendly, as recently as 23 weeks ago he was on ex commanding vivek saying that he still has time in the race, and that he expects his endorsement. yesterday we saw his entire campaign team going against vivek, and that's largely because they are seeing vivek is cutting into their vote,

even if it's by a couple percentage points. >> ali, garrett, dasha, sophia, thank you all so much. appreciate you. tomorrow, rachel maddow leads analysis of the iowa caucuses -- of the big board, special coverage begins tomorrow at seven eastern, here on msnbc. now to donald trump's legal problems, my next guest was in court during his outburst last week. how the antics may have been perceived by the judge, when we're back in 60 seconds. n 60 seconds

a new court battle today for donald trump and here is how it's playing out. he's attacking judge lewis kaplan who is here in the eugene carroll trial on tuesday, which will determine damages after trump was found guilty a second time for defaming carroll. he claims the judge is refusing to -- mother-in-law thursday funeral in florida. >> and the judge says,

essentially you can't go to the funeral because we're not going to give you the time. so if i go to the funeral, i can't be of the trial, they're not gonna hold up to trial. think of it, this is a radical left judge, caplan. this is a radical left judge appointed by clinton. >> but carroll's lawyer says in a new court filing that trump actually has a campaign event scheduled in new hampshire on one of the days he was asking for a postponement. joining me now, msnbc legal analyst our good friend lisa rubin, she was in judge arthur engoron's courtroom during trump's outburst last week. welcome, lisa. so is trump, is he testing how much this new judge is going to tolerate his public attacks? what do you make of trump's conflicting counter with the court? >> let's start first by the characteristic -- new judge. because he's really anything but that to donald trump. blue caplan is the same judge who presided over eugene carroll's first trial last spring, and although trump never set foot in his courtroom,

he's well familiar with judge kaplan's rulings. in fact, judge caplan ruled that because a jury found last spring that donald trump had sexually assaulted and defamed e. jean carroll, those issues are not up for debate at this trial, much like rudy giuliani's defamation filed with respect to those two georgia election workers that recently included the only issue here is about damages. is he testing this judge? he is absolutely testing this judge, but i think he'll find that lou kaplan is far less patient with him then arthur engoron. that's both because of the differences between federal and state court, but also because of he picked the wrong guy to mess with. lou kaplan is the same judge who also presided over sam bankman-fried's reason federal trial. he is known for being smart, no nonsense, and particularly protective of the people in his courtroom and in the courthouse. i think you'll see if trump tries more shenanigans it's not going to work with lou kaplan.

>> let me just tell you, i want to read you something that was literally just handed to me. the judge has made an accommodation, lisa, for trump to testify in the e. jean carroll case, while denying former trump's -- delay this trial which is what we've been talking about, so that he can attend his mother-in-law's funeral this coming week. luis kaplan's -- e. jean carroll case, should he decide to do so. it is still, again, unclear if he's going to show up on tuesday when the court case is supposed to get underway. what are your thoughts on that? >> my bet, alex, is that he doesn't show up this week at all. that's in part because the case is going to start obviously with e. jean carroll's own presentation of the evidence. the order that we saw from luke kaplan points out the divergence that you noted earlier, that trump said he wanted to go to his mother-in-law's funeral and yet after making that represent nation to the court also scheduled a campaign event on

january 17th in new hampshire. today's order points that out, but says if trump has put on a defense as of thursday, january 18th, and is done with his defense but for his own testimony, usually the judge would say if your witness isn't here counsel you are out of luck. your cases over. and with the judges saying, if you reach that point on thursday, i will let the court go early and we can wait until monday for trump to come back. there is no court this coming friday, in that trial, alex. >> let's make a point again that that is the date of his mother-in-law scheduled funeral, it's thursday. so no sense on that front. what about, you are there thursday when trump spoke in court in the new york fraud trial. he said this is a fraud on me, peon in the room right now hates trump. regeneron then said please mister case, control your clients. what was it like to sit in that room? what sense did you get from judge or him go on, and how did other people react? >> i think that the judge knew

that he had been played. obviously we saw that email exchange between judge engoron and the lawyers at the attorney generals office, and the lawyers representing trump. in that penultimate email he said to trump lawyer chris skies, take it or leave it. and yet, you saw a much more subdued judge engoron on thursday. he was almost exasperated. chris case stood up at the end of three attorneys presentations and he was at a time, and that's when he said your honor former president trump would like an opportunity to address the court. i think at that point, and gordon was exhausted. but i will also note alex, for you and our viewers, and go on had faced a bomb threat at this home that morning. not to say that former president trump was responsible for that, but i wonder how much a person can be attacked and threatens before they are just tired, and they give in. i think that's the most dangerous part of all of it, because trump got away with

saying a lot of the things that he wanted to say that engoron wanted him to commit to not saying. he got everything he wanted, even though he only got five minutes. just as a spectator, i felt yanked around. i wonder how judge engoron felt. >> let me quickly ask you fore you go, lisa, we take a look at -- include least one more trial in new york. whh of these, if any, do you think is most likely to wrap up with a verdict before the november election? >> my money is still d.c. election subversion trial. i don't think it will go to trial on march 4th, because of the delays occasion by trump's appeal. that having been said, it is the most likely of the federal trials to go to court, and i think there's an understanding on the half of both the state d.a.s when prosecuting former president trump, but the federal trials might need to come first. we can tenuously see -- showing that she doesn't intend

to try this case expeditiously, if it all before the election. my money is still on judge tanya chutkan, i'll stick to that. >> you are echoing the sentiments of tim heavy, to bury mines. i'm echoing that sentiments. -- his legal expertise to dissect the various cases against former president donald trump and the implications they might have on his presidential candidacy. watch defendant trump, candidateump. nine pm eastern on msnbc. meantime, breaking out -- steve kornacki later this hour. and feeding their dogs dog food that's actually well, food. developed with vets. made from real meat and veggies. portioned for your dog. and delivered right to your door. it's smarter, healthier pet food. get 50% off your first box

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could escape. a sixth grader was killed, the gunman turned the gun on himself and died. all flags in iowa now flying at half staff in marburger's honor. >> today marks 100 days since the start of the israel-hamas war, and right now -- grim milestone of the hamas october 7th terrorist attack with rallies calling for the release of all remaining hostages. they are joined by other protests around the world this weekend demanding a cease-fire in gaza. nbc's josh lederman joining us once again from tel aviv, israel. josh, welcome. what are the protests like there? >> this war has now become the longest and the deadliest between israelis and palestinians since israel's founding in 1948. he had many of these rallies here in israel we are hearing from israel's who fear that the world has moved on, lost focused on the more than 100 hostages still captured in the gaza strip. in the plaza here in tel aviv that's become known as hostage square, they have set up a

reenactment of a hamas tunnel where so many of those hostages are believed to be held. i spoke today at hostage square with norm perry, who is the daughter of 79 year ohio mary, one of the hostages. she told me what she's going through right now, take a listen. >> after 100 days, do you still feel hopeful that your father's coming home? >> i don't have an option. i have to be hopeful, i have to be here and fight for him every day, and i have to keep -- and safely each and every one of the world that no one should sit silent. >> alex, in the gaza strip they are reeling from one of the most intense bombing campaigns in recent history. nearly 24,000 people in gaza have been killed so far, according to the palestinian health ministry there. that is about 1% of the population. our nbc news team in gaza has been speaking to residents there who say look, we understand that israel is

fighting hamas, but we are not hamas. they do not understand why so many women and children have been killed in this conflict. the u.n. says the majority of those killed have been women and children. they say they fear the world does not understand their suffering, as many of them are waiting days for food, not able to get any clean water, medicine, or food for their children. they are pleading with the international community to stop this war, alex. >> it's very unimaginable, frankly. thank you very much, we appreciate you josh. coming up next, we're unpacking a remarkable article in the new york times. why worried voters are talking about the prospect of world war iii, and the possibilities of political violence. i will speak with minnesota governor tim walz about it. plus, whether more states should try to keep donald trump off the ballot.

today, iowa caucus goers are standing in line, they're braving sub-zero temperatures to support the candidate they

think should be president. right now donald trump is on stage in indianola, and last night trump sent his supporters would walk on glass to vote for him. but for one first time caucus goer, she broke out her semi. >> if trump is in my town, that is fabulous. i will knock snow down to get here. >> did you caucus eight years ago? >> no, i didn't start voting until 2020. >> for donald trump? >> are you involved because of donald trump? >> yeah. >> so you can be a first time caucus goer? >> yeah. i couldn't stand politics, at all. but when i saw them all attacking trump and really i would just like, why are they attacking trump? >> nbc's vaughn hillyard is in indianola, iowa for us. what is the vibe there, vaughn? are all their supporters as enthusiastic as when we just heard from? >> absolutely. the question we've been asking about is whether folks are

gonna turnout tomorrow night when it's negative 35 windchill -- and i think it's evidence of what we can expect here. every person i talked to here, much like betsy who you just heard from, said that nothing is going to stop them. they are passionate about donald trump, and that is why they are going to turn out. do you notice that she said she's a first time caucus goer? she didn't register to vote until 2020. i think that is an important -- des moines register poll, 56% of first-time caucus goers say they support donald trump. you've got to look at his past baseline of support, and his he is only building on that. one other important note in the last few minutes is the fact that north dakota governor doug -- former presidential candidate himself here in this gop field, he just took the stage with donald trump and announced that he is endorsing trump for the gop nomination, and they've had many conversations over the month -- coalescing around nikki haley

around the santas, but you have not seen an endorsement from tim scott, or my pants of any of those candidates. instead, the first former republican presidential candidate to drop out and endorse is doug burgum, and he is endorsing donald trump. it's interesting to note if you go back to the summer, one conversation the burden had with our own -- he was asked by chuck would you do business with donald trump, he's a businessman himself. and he said no, he didn't think so, because it's important to look at the company that one keeps. well, the one company that doug burgum is keeping today's donald trump, just about 36 hours before folks go to caucus in the midwest. >> i will let you stay in muted tones as former president trump is speaking there. thank you so much, ron, for that. joining me right now from des moines iowa -- tim walz, he is chair of the democratic governors association as well as being a top surrogate for president biden. governor, welcome sir, it's good to have you here.

you are there in iowa, you are promoting president biden despite -- gop nominee in monday. tell me what you're hearing from iowans, and are the prospects good for the president this year? >> well, first of all thank you for having me, alex. it's great to be down here, i said come south to warm up in this, but we're down here to make the case that it's going to be a pretty stark choice. the former president's made it clear that he does not believe in democracy, rule of law, he's made it clear that he wants to suspend pre-existing conditions from the aca. he doesn't trust women to make their health care decisions, and he promotes political violence. those are not values that are -- on the other hand you've got joe biden delivering on infrastructure bills, you've got him making sure that we have in formidable insulin, and making sure that he's doing the job focused on american people. building the academy from the middle out of the bottom up, and that's a big difference. we'll make our case, we are not here to look at polls in

january. we're here to get prepared to win across this country in november. >> what i also might say, sir, you might have wanted to go somewhere a little further south if you wanted to warm up. my goodness, the weather has been absolutely something, i had to laugh at laugh. >> we can ice fish now. >> i guess. let's take a look together at the new cbs poll today, which shows in a head to head matchup all three -- they all's serve a slight lead at least in a national position there over president biden among likely voters. is the biden campaign taking souls polls seriously? do you think they should at least look at this one seriously? >> oh, no. look, it's not the polls. we know this race is going to be close. every modern presidential race is close. that's the way it works. as far as the polling goes, we're not delivering a message for the short term goal, we're delivering the message that the by a narrow choice between defending democracy, supporting voting rights, making sure that equity isn't everything that we do, and making sure that we're addressing some of our biggest

problems whether that be climate change or the cost of health care. those are things that will start to come out. there's a lot of time to make that case. no, i think we're taking very seriously. these races are always close, and we know that states like minnesota, like michigan, like wisconsin, like virginia, we need to make sure we play. there is folks in iowa that don't need to be driving to minnesota to get their health care, because they've demonized women and taken away reproductive rights. we're looking to go in every state, but we also know the steak that we are gonna win this thing. where -- after the white house is there, the president one last time, and donald trump has only gotten worse in that time. president biden has only added to his accomplishments. >> let me ask you about the new york times, which as you know has described a grim existential dread that americans are experiencing ahead of this election. they are saying voters on both sides are casually throwing around the prospect of world war iii, of civil unrest, they're anxious of divisions they fear are tearing the country apart. how can the president address

this conflict in the american psyche? does his campaign need to offer something more optimistic, kind of a mourning in america approach? >> i think his speech at valley ford in charleston started to lay this out. the reason people are feeling this way is because donald trump spent eight years talking about american dystopia. i said on that inauguration stage in the first trump inauguration, -- a picture of american that wasn't true. a picture of things that did not happen, and continue to tell people this. that only he can save them, and everything is bad. you look at our economy compared to other nations around the world, no one's doing better. the president, the federal reserve, the policies that have been there, and this is all without congress that won't do a dang thing. whether it's to fund the immigration policies that the president has asked for it from day one, or actually get things going to -- in ukraine. it's their job to make people feel bad. what we're saying, and joe biden has said this, look, we're better than this. we can rebuild this country, we

can tackle climate change, we can support women's reproductive rights, at the same time are able to help our allies to make sure democracy is strong. you'll hear that message, you've got ten months. be very clear, donald trump is made sure -- very uncomfortable. joe biden has spent time improving our lives. >> i have one last question, this aonstitutionally based one, it remains uncertain if donald p will actually even remain ballot in many states february 8th -- oral arguments on the lodo supreme court's decision to remove him from the state ballot, because he engaged in insurrection. what do you expect will happen? >> i'll tell you, not being a constitutional scholar there's little doubt in my mind, i trust my eyes, addressed what was out there, i trust the hundreds of people who pled guilty to insurrection. donald trump did do this. i have to be honest with you, i just assumed meet him at the ballot box. he's not going to win the election. we need to make sure he's there, he cries foul when we won the election, they continue to undermine our electoral system. the folks who are in charge --

they'll make the decision based on law, and i think there's a strong argument that he has filed the insurrection clause, and that he should probably not be able to run. but as far as i'm concerned, i'm just gonna get out here and beat him again at the ballot box, and that's what i think we'll do across the country. >> all right, minnesota governor, tim walz. i can see why you're a top surrogate for the biden campaign, thank you so much for your time. >> well you've probably heard it this week and thought it was unusual, donald trump's comments about pandora's box. who is his audience? what does he mean? former fbi counterintelligence peter strzok joins me next. e next

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then we'll see how brave the rest them are. either swalwell or nadler has to die before the election. we need to get the message. i'm just not putting up with this anymore. >> stone denies ever making the remarks, calling it tot nonsense, adding i've never said anything of the kind. more a i manipulation. you should note nbc news has not authenticated or obtain that audio. joining me now is peter strzok, former fbi counterintelligence agent, and author of compromise, counterintelligence and the threat of donald j trump. welcome peter, it's good to have you on the broadcast. i'm curious what you are hearing about this? could this be a.i. from four years ago? is this something the fbi might be looking to verify? >> i'm certainly concerned that a.i. is going to play a role potentially in the upcoming election, but in this case with roger stone, there's almost no doubt in my mind that these are bona fide recordings. roger stone is no stranger to

the judicial system, and if these are in fact fake, and media is reporting them as true, i'm sure there's -- defamation case or legal route to correct it. taken -- roger stone's past behavior, listeners and viewers need to remember that he was sentenced to 40 months in prison for lying for president trump, for obstructing investigations toward president trump. only to have that sentence commuted. part of what created that long sentence is that roger stone -- social media post with cross hairs next or her image. so roger stone hasn't demonstrated past behavior of engaging in threats and intimidation. again, i hear his protest stations, i don't think they carry much weight, and i think that these recordings are very likely the real deal. >> donald trump and his immunity appeal hearing appeared to implied that violence will -- keep him from winning the election. here's what he said, and then the response of the white house.

take a listen, peter. >> i think if they feel this is the way they're gonna try to win, and it's not the way it goes, it will be bedlam in the country. it's a very bad thing, it's a very bad precedent as we said. it's the opening of a pandora's box. >> president biden has always been absolutely clear when it comes to this political violence has no place whatsoever in america. >> what signal is donald trump sending their, peter? what does law enforcement even do with that kind of messaging? >> it's wildly irresponsible for any candidate, let alone a former president of the united states running for the presidency again, make some sort of statement like this, which does encourage violence. i think he's doing it for two primary reasons. one is, it gets the base mobilized. it gets all those iowa caucus-er's out to caucus for him. it gets into fundraising, emails, this part of playing the victim and whining about how he's being oppressed by his opponent that appeals to potential donors. but at the end of the day what is concerning is that there are

small portions of his followers ship who aren't necessarily fully competent, who are inclined potentially towards violence. and whether that's the sort of thing that we've seen threats towards judges, threats towards voting officials, threats towards investigators, there is the real reaction that there is the potential for violence out there. and again, the majority of trump supporters are not going to engage in violence. but it doesn't take all but a few thousand of a percent who might, and that is creating problems. >> the fbi says the number of threat cases that's on the rise, former fbi director james comey wrote an op-ed about implied threats of violence, saying the donald trump not coming for us, the rule of law is coming for him. adding that the people acting on tru's behalf are not looking to dive for him or even go to jail for him, they weren't there when he was arigned, or georgia, or florida, or d.c.. they aren't coming. >> do you agree with that,

peter? is it all a lot more bark than bite? >> i appreciate the points that director comey made and i think he's absolutely right for two reasons, one that it is important that we've charged over 20 1200 people -- to turn to effect that that creates, preventing others from potentially engaging in violence. i think that i do disagree a little bit that there is just only a threat of violent rather than actual violence. unfortunately, we have seen instances of actual violence, whether that's the attack on paul pelosi. whether that's somebody trying to track down obama's residents in washington, d.c.. again, i'm not concerned that the overwhelming majority of the of trump supporters are going to engage in violence, i'm extraordinarily concerned that a tiny percentage, given the size of his following, represents tens if not hundreds of people who despite all this deterrence may yet decide to engage in violence. will it be organized?

likely not. does that matter at the end of the day to the targets of the violence? not at all. so i don't think this is the kind of thing that we can simply step back and say these are the threats and nothing more, because at the end of the day long force meant has to treat every one of these threats as if they might be real. so whether or not it's all bluster, state, local, and federal officials are having to respond to each and every one of these threats, regardless of whether or not they're bona fide. >> look, to your point, in some instances, it only takes one anyway. peter strzok, thank you so much. good to see you, my friend. your days are about to get better, why? because he is back. mr. steve kornacki is back on that brand-new iowa wall.

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oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. we are just hours away from it's not just possible, it's happening. the first republican caucuses of the election season. right now, all of the candidates are on the ground in iowa making a final pitch to voters across the state. nbc's steve kornacki is at the big board with a close look at

where each candidate stands ahead of monday's vote. the caucus tomorrow in iowa. today we get the final call. it is a good one. nbc news with the des moines register, they have been pulling the state for decades, an extremely accurate poll. let's get right to it, what did they find in the republican race. they find what we have seen for a long time now. donald trump is far far ahead in the republican race, 40% for trump. nikki haley is in second place here with 20. ron desantis, 16. vivek ramaswamy, eight. what's the change since our last fall taken back in december? trump down a tick. haley is up, surpassing desantis there for a second. a bit of arise for ramaswamy. a couple of notes, it's 48% for trump. this is the highest number ever in a final des moines registered poll for the iowa caucuses on the republican side. 48% is the highest a candidate has ever got into the caucuses with. the previous record was 43, george w. bush, the year 2000, he won the caucuses.

the margin, 28 points, trump over haley, also the largest in a final republican poll in iowa. the previous record, 23, george w. bush, 2000, again, he won the caucuses, won the nomination. let's dive deeper. where is the source of trump's strength and i? what we've been seeing this for a long time right now. this is a big change from 2016 when trump lost iowa. evangelical voters, 2016, they made up nearly two thirds of the entire republican electorate in iowa. donald trump with an outright majority in our polls, support from evangelicals. in 2016, when he lost iowa, he lost evangelicals by double digits. it was true in iowa for a while now. if you win the evangelical vote in the caucuses. you win the state. trump is nearly 30 points ahead of desantis among evangelicals. how is nikki haley gotten into second in this race? short answer, independents. she trails trump. look at that, she's only four points behind him on independents, 33% of the vote

there for haley. she will probably make about 20% of the iowa caucus electorate tomorrow. so, you see haley strength there. here's the problem for nikki haley and here's the cautionary note about her taking second place and the full. we asked these republican caucus goers, do you have a favorable, in favor view of the candidates? look who checks in the lower 48, 46, a polarizing number four haley. and what a change. in our last poll, again, last month, haley was nearly 60% favorable. she is down 11 points since then. she is 31 unfavorable. she's gone up 15 points since then. nikki haley has become a polarizing and much less popular figure with the iowa republican caucus goers. maybe, it has something to do with history, as supporters of each candidate, ron desantis and nikki haley, what their feelings are toward donald trump. look at this, more than three out of four haley supporters have a negative view of trump. and half of all of haley

supporters in iowa, either described themselves as independents or democrats. we have seen this with other candidates. we saw it with chris christie. we saw it with mike pence. when you get associated with anti trump voters, anti trump forces, pro trump republican voters, and there are a lot of, them tend to turn on you. is that what's happening with nikki haley in iowa? and then, there is the question of whether is this gonna help anybody, is this gonna hurt anybody? what's it gonna do to the turnout? we don't know. but maybe, this is one way to measure it. we ask folks, are you extremely, or very enthusiastic about your candidate? among trump supporters, nearly 90%. desantis supporters, 62%. nikki haley, under 40%, extremely or very enthusiastic. well, that effect, find out tomorrow. >> >> and steve's gonna be around tomorrow as rachel maddow leads analysis of the iowa caucuses. special coverage begins tomorrow seven pm eastern on msnbc. in moments, that huge storm hitting