anger, it's sadness. but there is hope, we believe that they are safe in another life with the heavenly father. and it will all be better. so, we have that hope. >> chuck and judy cox won a civil suit against the state of washington's -- claiming negligence. the jury awarded the states of charlie and braden $95.5 million to police in utah halted the search for susan, and the case remains open. >> that is all for this edition of dateline. i'm adriana canning, thanks for watching. ♪♪ this sunday, iowa decides. >> are you ready to make some history on monday night? >> this is go time. republicans are facing frostbite and dangerous

record-low temperatures as they get ready to make their choice in the first nominating contest of 2024. chaos follows him. >> you can't just terminate the constitution. >> former president donald trump lead his rivals even as he makes some of his closing arguments from outside a courtroom. >> it's a witch hunt in the truest sense of the word. >> who will emerge as trump's biggest challenger. steve kornacki has the results of our final poll, and chuck todd will offer a guide on what to watch on caucus night. plus, smoke signals. chris christie exits the gop race, warning nikki haley will get smoked, but will he consider his own independent third party run? >> i am going to make sure that in no way do i enable donald trump to ever be president of the united states again. and striking back. the u.s. launches air strikes in yemen as tensions rise in the middle east. >> these strikes were very deliberate, very focused. >> while the pentagon's top official remains hospitalized and under fire for failing to disclose his cancer diagnosis and hospitalization.

my guests this morning, republican senator jni ernst of iowa, minnesota's democratic governor tim walz. joining me for insight and analysis are nbc news senior capitol hill correspondent garrett haake. brianne phannenstiel from "the des moine register," and ross wilburn, a former iowa democratic party chair and marc short, former chief of staff to vice president mike pence. welcome to sunday and a special edition of "meet the press." ♪♪ >> announcer: from nbc news in des moines for the iowa presidential caucuses, this is a special edition of "meet the press" with kristen welker. good sunday morning from a bitterly cold, des moines, iowa, where republicans will say who they want facing off against republicans in november. will former president trump

dominating the race despite 14 of the 99 counties visiting crack 50%? what about the race for second place? can nikki haley and ron desantis make a stronger-than-expected showing and gain momentum? we begin this morning with our new nbc news "des moines register" poll, and i'm joined by steve kornacki to break it all down. here we go. >> the nbc poll with "the des moines register," they have been doing this for decades and have one of the best polls in the 6 business, and what do they find on the eve of the caucuses, donald trump continue to have an enormous lead and trump at 48%. nikki haley now in second place here at 20%, passing ron desantis who is at 16. vivek ramaswamy at 8% in terms of any change from our previous poll which was done last month. we do see trump down a tick, as we said, haley moving there into

second place, and ramaswamy into second place. and this puts trump lead in some perspective. the 48% that he's registering here, that is the highest share for a republican candidate in a final des moines register poll ever that surpasses the record of 43% from george w. bush on the eve of the 2,000 caucuses. bush won those caucuses and also the margin. trump, 48%, that's a 28-point margin. that is also the biggest margin in a final register poll, also breaking a record of george w. bush of 23 points when he won the caucuses in 2000. we've been seeing a lot in the polling this year. what about this question whether you mentioned it and is everyone talking about it and could it affect turnout, could it help someone? i don't know, but this is a measure and maybe this is a clue. we asked voters are you extremely enthusiastic about your candidate? you can see, basically half of trump supporters say extremely enthusiastic.

about a quarter of desantis's supporters. here's the worrying note for nikki haley. fewer than 10% of her supporters put themselves in that category. are those supporters who say they're going to support her going to turn out? that's the question we've been seeing all along. is your mind made up? you see a majority for all candidates now and more core, locked-in support for trump than the other two and that's the story we've been seeing throughout this process. first driving donald trump to this big lead. you see it, it's evangelical voters. back in 2016, they made up about two-thirds, two out of every two votes cast in the iowa caucuses. trump in 2016 lost to evangelicals, lost by double digits, and what a turnaround in eight years.

he now has an outright majority and he's 30 points ahead of ron desantis who has gone hard with this group of voters. the rule in iowa is if you win the evangelical vote, you win the republican caucuses. trump is absolutely cleaning up in our poll with evangelicals. what has gotten haley into second place, it's independents and they'll make up 20% of the electorate. haley not winning this group, but look how close she is to trump, haley, 33, trump, 37, among independent voters. here is where it gets tricky though. she's appealing to independents, and in this poll we find that half, half of her support in this iowa poll comes from self-described independents or self-described democrats. we asked supporters of nikki haley and ron desantis what's your opinion of donald trump? look at this. more than three out of four haley voters have a negative view of donald trump. she really is consolidating the anti-trump vote that is out

there. and you wonder, is that starting to affect this? this is the basic popularity of each candidate. trump very popular, desantis still extremely popular. haley, 48-46, favorable/unfavorable. she's become polarizing. a month ago, her favorable was 60, her unfavorable, 31, soaring up for her. candidates who get associated, we've seen this with christie and we've seen this with pence with anti-trump voters and pro-trump republicans tend to turn on them. is that maybe what we're seeing happen here with haley supporters and how about this for a number two? again, among haley supporters. they don't like trump in general. we ask, who would you vote for, biden or trump in a general election. and thisis nikki haley

supporters in iowa. 43% say they'd be with biden, the democrat. more than half, 23% say they'd be with donald trump. that speaks to the coalition that hail seems to be putting together and the bottom line question was asked at the start of the campaign, candidate, all of the legal woes and the trials going on here, asking republicans in iowa, is it going to hurt him in the general election. remember, desantis got in this race sort of thinking republicans would think it would, even the caucuses, iowa republican caucusgoers say, nope, he can win the race against joe biden. only 23% say that's going to make it awfully tough for trump. the electability argument at the beginning of this campaign we wondered will it hurt trump with republicans, doesn't look like it is in iowa, kristen. >> now we have our answer, right, steve? fascinating breakdown. thank you so much. of course, as you say, the big question will caulkers goers turn out in this big chill. we'll have to see. steve, thank you. >> you got it. folks, we can't say it

enough, the temperatures are daurjs dangerously low and dropping, and tomorrow is expected to be colder than any previous caucus day on record. will iowans turn out? the candidates have spent the last 48 hours making their closing arguments. >> it will get even colder and we're in, we're showing up. donald trump has phoned it in and he'll be hanging down in mar-a-lago. i'm sure it's 75 degrees there. >> now monday is going to be cold, really cold, but what i'm asking you if you will take the time to not just go to the polls, take people with you. >> we have a huge -- a huge advantage here because -- the only thing is i just landed in an airplane and it's nasty out there. i had a poll that just came out.

in iowa i'm leading by 40 points and they can't find a bad one. >> donald trump, if he's the nominee, the whole election will be about legal issues, criminal trials, maybe criminal convictions by then, january 6th, all of that, that plays into the democrats' hands. >> chaos follows him and we can't be a country in disarray and have a world on fire and duo through four more years of chaos. we won't survive it. joining me now is iowan republican joni ernst who chairs the republican policy committee and the first female combat veteran elected to serve in the united states senate. senator ernst, welcome back to "meet the press." >> oh, good morning, kristen. it's great to be with you. >> it is great to have you. happy caucus eve. we should note you have not endorsed a candidate.

donald trump has nearly 30 points in our latest poll, but of course, the big x factor here is the weather. i have to ask you before we delve into policy issues, do you think these frigid temperatures will help or hurt donald trump on caucus night? >> well, it's hard to know. iowan are a hardy people and there are no snow days when it comes to caucus. so we'll see who turns out tomorrow night. i would say wear your insulated boots and carhartt, and go out and support your candidate of choice, but, kristen, it really is hard to tell who will drive out the most voters, but one thing i can say, iowa being the first in the nation caucus state, we do take this very seriously. >> i've been out talking to folks and everyone is saying exactly that point, senator.

i want to ask you about former u.n. ambassador nikki haley. in our poll she comes in second place, but if you look at the polls overall, she does best against president biden in a general election campaign. former president trump is tied effectively with president biden. if republicans want to win back the white house, is nikki haley your best bet? >> well, i think she is a great candidate. again, i'm not endorsing anyone in the iowa caucuses, but if you look at the issues that are top of mind for iowa republicans, they are the economy. they've suffered under president biden. it is the southern border and the flow of illegal migrants into the united states, but overall, if you look at national security, protecting our borders and pushing back against our adversaries worldwide, nikki haley does have the experience there, and she's really spoke to that, to the iowa voters. so that may be one of the tipping points that resonate with so many different voters. >> let me try to get at the question this way. do you plan to endorse whichever

candidate emerges as the winner after the iowa caucuses? >> well, it will depend. i have gone round and round in my mind. i do think that president trump is going to win. we see such a large margin, but it's not a foregone conclusion. so we'll see who comes out the winner here in the iowa caucuses. we'll know that tomorrow night, and then we'll know how to move forward, but one thing we know as iowa republicans is that we cannot have joe biden in the white house for a second term. >> so just to be very clear, though, if donald trump wins tomorrow night, would you endorse him, senator? >> well, again, i am not going to say that. i need to review the candidates very carefully. we'll see the margin. i guess i am assuming that president trump wins, but it could be any one of these fantastic candidates. so, again, we'll see who emerges.

i've made up my decision on who i will caucus for. it is a private ballot, and i would expect that we'll have a very good turnout, but, again, kristen, i'm not going to tip my hand to what i might be supporting. >> all right. has donald trump asked for your endorsement, senator? >> i have had a request from just about all of the candidates, so, again, i'm not endorsing, and we'll keep those discussions private. >> and you're not ruling out endorsing donald trump, though, if he wins or if he wins the nomination? you'll endorse the gop -- >> no, i'm not ruling that out at all, but certainly we want to let iowan make that decision through the weekend and tomorrow night. they'll come together at 7:00 p.m. here in iowa. they'll get out in the snow and the cold weather and then we will go from there starting tuesday morning. >> all right. i want to ask you about your recent trip. you were just in the middle east with other lawmakers looking to

secure the release of the six americans still being held hostage by hamas. do you have any reason to believe that there could be a pause in the fighting to allow for the release of more hostages in the near future, senator? what came out your trip? >> kristen, i truly hope so. we still have six americans that remain in the hands of hamas in the gaza strip. we are seeing now the negotiation for medications going into gaza strip for the hostages. that is extremely important. i led a bipartisan, bicameral litigation to the middle east and spoke with leaders that are actually dealing with hamas on this very issue, leaders in egypt, leaders in qatar and leaders in bahrain and of course, israel, but again, every second counts. we must get these hostages back

as soon as possible. their families are depending on it, their lives depend on it, and we cannot forget these are our american brothers and sisters. >> absolutely. i want to stay on this topic of hostages. donald trump has gotten a lot of attention for labeling those who are serving time for the january 6th attack as hostages. you obviously know the difference between those convicted of crimes related to january 6th and hostages. does it bother you that donald trump is using that language? >> it does in this context because we do have american hostages that are being held against their will all around the globe, and especially if you look at the innocents that were attacked and kidnapped on october 7th, we are approaching nearly 100 days. these are people that have been taken. they're held in tunnels with terrorists. they are being tortured. they have been raped and they have been denied medication.

so equating the two, there is no comparison. our americans that are being held overseas, they are innocent. they were there celebrating the high jewish holidays and were taken by these horrible terrorists, so there is no equal term. the hostages are hostages. i would certainly ask to speak to any of their families and see the anguish and the pack and not knowing if their loved ones are alive or dead, and there is a very clear difference. >> as you know, mr. trump is also talking about pardoning some of those who have been convicted. would you advise him against him doing that? are you opposed to pardoning those serving time for january 6th. >> i am not opposed to that. that is a president's prerogative. so if former president donald trump is elected as our next

president, he does have the right to do that. and i think we all need to focus on january 6th -- >> 700 of them, senator -- 700 of them have pled guilty to storming the capitol on january 6th. you would support pardoning them? >> again, i am not saying that i would support pardoning them, but that is a president's prerogative to do so. we have seen many presidents through the years that have pardoned many others, and so if donald trump chooses to do that as our next president of the united states, again, that will be his decision. >> these are people, though, who attacked the building that you were in. you called them insurrectionists at the time. would you not counsel mr. trump against pardoning them? >> i did not call them insurrectionists. i don't remember using that term. i would say that they did break the law. they did break the law, and i am not excusing any of their behavior, but, again, that's up to the president.

>> that term was used in an op-ed by you in "the des moines register," but let me do a quick rapidfire round if i could because we're running out of time. obviously this week the biden administration ordered attacks against houthi targets in yemen. this all happened when the defense secretary was in the hospital. he signed off on these strikes, and, of course, it came after a delay in him making the president and the american people aware of his medical condition. do you think he should still be serving as the defense secretary? >> well, i do think that there will need to be actions taken as soon as we get all of the information which hasn't been gathered together for members of congress. we have seen very little transparency coming from the department of defense, and i think it's absolutely inexcusable that our secretary of defense was hospitalized and unable to perform his duties and

yet no one seemed to know what the heck was going on. this is not a circus, folks, and he is not the director of the small business administration. he is the secretary of defense. when we see attacks against american service members overseas and we see the actions in the red sea, we see the war in israel and in ukraine, we need someone who can be at the helm and be transparent. it also goes to an issue, kristen, of does the secretary of defense actually trust president joe biden that he didn't have the courtesy to call him and let him know what was going on? is joe biden really in control as our commander in chief? this begs that question, and we, as congress demand answers. >> all right. undoubtedly you will be looking to get those answers. president biden saying he still has confidence in secretary austin. senator joni ernst, thank you for joining us. really appreciate it. and joining me now is

democratic governor from minnesota, tim walz, chair of the governors association and top surrogate for president biden. governor walz, welcome back to "meet the press." >> thanks for having me. >> thanks for being here on this caucus eve and chilly temperatures. >> i've come south to get warm. >> you are used to chilly temperatures. let's talk about some of the challenges that president biden faces. one of them is his age and you've been an outspoken defender and the first lady went so far to say it's an asset and voters aren't buying that and what does the campaign need to do to address this issue? >> first, there is something to be said about age and wisdom, and results matter. i watched infrastructure come and go, and i watched joe biden deliver on a historic infrastructure, building in

minnesota and iowa, and when the choice becomes the binary choice between donald trump and disdain for the rule of law and joe biden competency and getting things done, that overweighs that. >> but i guess the request is is the campaign taking this issue seriously enough do they need to do more? >> i think they are. they've got us out here talking about it and he's great and we're talking and chatting about it and we all get a little older and that's what happens, and you also gain that insight. i think when it comes to these issues working across the aisle to get things done, you see the president doing it with dignity, with class and getting up every day and doing the work. i think he's doing what he does and it's incumbent upon all of us and my mom is 88, still living on the farm and drives herself. folks are able to do this so this ageism that goes to this, if it's not that it would be something else. they attack all of us on something. this is part of it. >> former obama adviser david axelrod is worried democrats aren't taking the warning signs seriously enough. he said dismissing biden's challenges is deeply unhelpful and the concerns are real. do you think the campaign runs

the risk of ignoring president biden's vulnerability? >> oh, no. this will be a close election. there's no denying that. all presidential elections are close. we're focusing on the assets, and, no, they're taking it very seriously. i think the way they take it seriously, they're continuing to put out incredible policies and for example the school nutrition program that will extend into the summer is incredible. we've seen 15 governors including this state turn that down. we've got hungry children. the biden/harris administration is still working the policies. nobody thinks this is going to be easy. nobody thinks this is going to be anything, but close, but we're focusing on november, and it's a big issue here. >> i want to talk about one of the issues looming over the campaign, the issue of migrants. some states are calling to abandon biden over his handling of what we are seeing in the middle east.

illinois governor jb pritzker wrote this. unfortunately the welcome and aid illinois has been providing to these asylum seekers has not been matched with support by the federal government. the federal government's lack of intervention at the border has created an untenable situation for illinois. has the president been focused enough on these issues, do you think? >> look, the immigration system is broken and i was in congress, the gang of six in 2018. the fact of the matter is on day one of this presidency joe biden put out a comprehensive plan on immigration reform and continues to ask for the resources necessary. republicans doanlet want to fix this. former president trump wants the economy to fail on this. this is an issue they use at this time of the year, but there is no doubt. the system is broken. we need to have comprehensive immigration reform. they're experiencing trauma in their own countries and we need workers in iowa and the processing plants and those things. we need to do that.

congress, especially the republicans, chaos caucus is doing nothing about it. >> i should clarify, i combined the middle east and migrants because we are going to get to the middle east in just one moment, but look, governor pritzker is saying this is effectively an urgent situation. >> it is. >> he is pleading for help and that it's not getting there quickly enough. why hasn't there been more action? >> the executive branch does not appropriate. we saw congress can do this. we saw it in '18 when we got close, and they didn't want to do it because it would be an election issue, and we saw the migrant caravan. they're not serious people. two things are true here. the system is broken and we need the help. secondly, congress is responsible. >> do you think it's a crisis, what's happening at the border? i think it could be fixed. i think crisis is we certainly have these -- i don't want people living outside minnesota right now. i think there's the humanity piece of this, and then there's the right that every sovereign inauguration has the right to control their borders, which they should. congress is doing nothing.

more could be done, but they're doing nothing and the president is asking for more aid for border patrol and not getting it. >> do you think the border is secure? >> i think the border with the folks who do the work down there are doing a great job. could we do better? absolutely. and, again, if the executive branch had their way, it would have wanted on day one and i encourage folks and the senator get something done, send the resources over and we in the executive branch follow the laws written by the congress and there is a broken system. >> i do want to ask you about the middle east because polling is showing that president biden is losing voters due to his support of israel's war against hamas. and, again, muslim leaders in your state are calling for democratic voters to, quote, abandon biden at the white house. we saw protesters gathering outside the white house gates calling for a cease-fire. do you think that president biden needs to change strategies

in calling for a cease-fire? >> since october 7th, it's a horrific situation and many of us have dealt with this issue traveling to israel, but the president has to hand them as commander and chief. he doesn't get to sit back and second-guess on this. he's making sure israel is an ally and he's showing incredible concern for the palestinian people showing that hamas is not a good actor and the palestinian authority has to figure that out. as far as folks expressing their opinions, i understand their frustration. they have family members there. but the question i would ask, abandoning president biden means a muslim ban. if you think it's clear, whether it's president trump or the other folks, it's the different flavor of the same maga kool-aid, they're going to do nothing for this two-state solution, and they will do nothing to provide humanitarian aid, and their battle cry is not one penny for anything else.

>> they are abandoning ukraine, and they will abandon everything else. the president has great and a lot of experience in foreign affairs. he is doing the best he can to bring this thing to a conclusion. >> you don't think he needs to start calling for a ceasefire. >> he's calling for a reasonable end to this that has to be in a place where israel can defend itself as well as making sure that we can protect palestinian people and hamas has done nothing to do that. >> thank you for being here. >> stay warm. >> we really appreciate it. you too. thank you. when we come back, chuck todd is with us in iowa with what he will be watching for on caucus night. stay with us. he will be watchi caucus night stay with us the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free

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>> thank you. my favorite off-site location that we ever had. these folks here are fantastic. >> they are fantastic, and you make it complete, and chuck, the big x factor is the weather. we want to show folks, we actually did a little experiment. we threw a cup of coffee outside into the air. look at what happens, chuck? >> i love it. my daughter who is majoring in meteorology will have fun with this. i love it. >> it speaks to how frigid and dangerously cold temperatures. so the question is always about turnout. >> right. >> and that adds a new element and what will you be watching in addition to the weather? >> that's the point. it almost is the entire turnout. rick santorum didn't win in a large turnout and those sorts of things and donald trump has benefitted from big turnouts. he really, when we've had the higher the turnout it's been in the general election, the better, the more trump voters have come, and is there a complacency issue about that

trump has to worry about? this is a question where weather has suddenly become the entire ball game and it should be a real advantage to ron desantis. here is a guy that has been building an organization longer than any other campaign. he's got the governor on his side who's got a built-in organization. this is why you build an organization is when the weather drops unexpectedly, are you going to get your people out? in theory, i think this is setting up really well right now for ron desantis. >> let's talk about that race for second place. explain to people because we've been talking about it for days. second place is important. but for ron desantis, it really is important, and nikki haley has edged him out in the polls, and if you look at enthusiasm, only 9% of voters are enthusiastic to support her. >> the only good news in the poll for nikki haley and every other part of this, when you look at the internals of this and this is not a candidacy

that's on the rice and this is one that peaked too soon. everything fell into place for her and all of a sudden it imploded and fell into place on the same day. chris christie gets out but sort of steps on her candidacy. she gets in a one-on-one with desantis, and desantis seems to have the better edge here. second place only matters if donald trump's under 50-50. >> why? >> this is the most republican electorate you're going to have and if you can hold the front-runner and former president under 50 in this electorate, which is as friendly an electorate as he's going to have, you can do it here, then you can make the case, hey, half the party would like to see this go on, but if he's over 50, i don't know how well second place is anymore. second place only looks as good as how many percentage points under 50 trump is. >> if he's over 50 -- i don't want to overstate this -- is that close to a game-over when you think about it?

>> if you're donald trump and you're over 50, then ron desantis is in second. it takes the wind out of the sails of haley. it means it won't be a consolidation and both move on to new hampshire. they seem to be flirting with stepping new hampshire we'll go to south carolina first and in that advisory, they're not sure what they're going to do, and that in itself is a victory for trump. >> speaking about victories for trump, you have a new column out talking about how candidates can best challenge them, and you write in 50 years when historians look back at this campaign, they will no doubt examine it through the prism of whether the gop wanted trump or a new direction, but that's not the campaign that's actually taking place. what is the best way to confront trump? because they haven't found it. >> they haven't. they've tried to do just a character campaign, making a character case, but trying to separate trump from trumpism and

that's proven not to be. if you look at the last couple of times there has been internal disputes inside the party about which direction to go, there is a robust debate on each sid in '64, in '76, and even in '16. there really isn't a debate about whether trumpism is the best part for the party and the debate is trump and that's probably the mistake that haley and desantis. they haven't made the case that trump's first term is a failure. you may have liked the issues he's focused on and his inability to solve these problems is why we have the problems we have today and they seem to be afraid of making that argument. >> just very quickly, chuck, you and i at the start of the race wondered what his legal challenges would need. it's only made him stronger and that was the big x factor if you remind to last year. >> there is. there's going to be so many what-ifs. what if alvin bragg had not gone

first, and what if jack smith has gone last. >> ron desantis has already said his excuse if he ends up getting out of this race, he's already diagnosed why he didn't make it, and he has said he blames allen bragg. i talked to folks inside the white house and they didn't believe the indictments were of benefit to him in fairness. we continue to watch this extraordinary moment in our pol six, chuck. >> thanks for having me. >> great to have you here. when we come back, ron desantis is headed to south carolina after iowa, as we just said. what does that mean about the future of his campaign? the panel is next. after iowa, a. what does that mean about the futre ♪3, 4♪ ♪ ♪hey♪ ♪ ♪are you ready for me♪ ♪are you ready♪ ♪are you ready♪

welcome back. the panel is here. nbc news senior capitol hill correspondent garrett haake. brianne pfannenstiel, chief politics director for "the des moines register," ross wilburn, former chair of the iowa democratic party, and marc

short, former chief of staff to vice president mike pence. happy caucus eve to all of you. thank you for being here. >> good to be here. >> garrett, you've been on the ground for days and covering this race from the beginning and obviously, trump has solidified his lead heading into caucus night. >> it's not the ground frozen solid and it's been that way for a long time. it's been like that from the start. trump has had the lead for a very long time. the combination of the durability of the lead and the weather have stalled out the final sprint to the finish here. you don't see candidates pouring money into the caucuses right now, you don't see people adding to the campaign events, and it's not practical, and it will not make a difference. the story about the second place fight is interesting, but if donald trump doubles up the record here in this state after having been impeached and criminally charged in four different jurisdictions from the last time he was on the ballot and the durability that he has in the primary and we will talk about what happens with that

down the line is something that i think the republican party is starting to grapple with that this is where we are in this race. >> brianne, do you think we will see a historic night? he is concerned about that, and the people think he'll win anyway and i don't need to go out in these cold temperatures. >> to the point of his durability is not only he maintaining the lead and he's going stronger over the months he's been campaigning here, despite all of the things that garrett mentioned, so, you know, there may be some complacency, historically cold on monday, but, you know, donald trump has been fighting this. he's been going to his commit to caucus rallies, and he's been telling people, i need you to show up. the biggest threat to my win is if you guys stay home. >> marc, we got the news that governor desantis is heading to

south carolina right after iowa. what do you make of that? what do you make of this fight for second place as someone who has been in this battle? >> think this race has been frozen in place for quite some time. i think trump a lead has been for quite some time. i think the reality is he has to have a strong showing here because he doesn't have the same operation in new hampshire or south carolina, but i think the conundrum for nikki haley is she really does finish second, desantis has a better ground game, and if she did and if desantis dropped out most of his support goes to trump so it doesn't help her in the long term. whether desantis goes to south carolina or new hampshire, kristen, i still feel like this is not going to be a protracted nomination battle. i think by the time we get through south carolina, we're going to pretty much know who the nominee is. >> we'll know more tomorrow night, ross, including historic results, and i just want to show folks what that looks like. the person who got the highest number of votes here in the iowa caucus is bob dole all of the

way back in 1988 followed by george w. bush, mike huckabee, ted cruz. set the scene. >> you know, it -- we have to put history aside. this is now -- it's a different time, and the margins really aren't going to provide much insight. donald trump and all of the republicans are running on the same extreme maga agenda. so they're really racing to the bottom and wrapping their arms around the most extreme fringes of the party, and we should all be concerned about this. >> garrett, it's interesting because we weren't just focused on the action on the campaign trail and we were focused on what was happening outside of the courtroom and inside of the courtroom. >> that's right. >> donald trump in his civil trial in new york turned into this into another campaign opportunity. >> it's interesting. if i go back far enough in my notebook i can find trump advisers that the legal problems that he had would become campaign trail problems later even if it's for scheduling purposes, the trump campaign has

basically weaponized donald trump's legal problems and turned them into campaign opportunities, and he gives the exact same message in courtrooms as he's doing on the stump. and this idea that he's being unfairly targeted by the justice department and by das or what have you comes out of the mouth of his supporters, and they've tried to do it into an asset, and the primary versus the generation, a whole different conversation. >> is anyone's talking about the president's issues in a iowa? what's the reality on the ground? >> only to the extent that

they're ready to move past them. they feel that he's being unfairly persecuted. you go to these campaign events, and i talked to a woman yesterday who described herself as a donald trump groupie. she's been to see him six or seven times and she's going today to see him speak and these are people who believe that, you know, he is the only one who can pick the problems that they see on the ground and nothing in the courtroom is changing for them 37. >> you saw from extraordinary moment unfold in the legal battles and his lawyers respond to the hypothetical question that former president trump's legal team that he could direct the military to kill a political opponent and still be barred as long as he's not convicted in the senate. do you think the democrats will start to use these issues against him because so far president biden has been hands off. >> this is shameful and frightening and we all should be concerned. >> but do you think democrats are going to start talking about this? should they? >> look, this election is about choices, and people are looking at whether we're going to unify behind the accomplishments of president biden and vice president harris. you know, it's just -- this is anti-american. we need to be focused about table issues and protecting medicare and protecting social security, ensuring, securing abortion rights. those table -- meat and potato

issues that affect iowan and americans. this is the playbook for america, this election. >> marc? >> there's an irony in the former president saying the executive privilege protects him from any prosecution and he also says on day one he'll prosecute joe biden. there's an enormous inconsistency there, but the problem for the table issues that he faces is the inflation, border crisis and the war in the middle east and war in eastern europe and those table issues drive people back to donald trump despite the legal challenges. >> all right. we will see what happens tomorrow night. stay with us. we have more of our panel. but first when we come back, why miracles can come true here in iowa. our "meet the press" minute is next. our "meet the press" minute is next

welcome back. florida governor ron desantis has declared he will win iowa. former president donald trump says he'll win the state with his advisers promising at least a 12-point victory. nikki haley has been tough to pin down, staying vague. the expectations game is central to the first in the nation contest. back in 2007 here's how former governor mike huckabee talked about his odds. >> in october you told me you were going to win the iowa caucuses. are you? >> i hope so, tim. i really do. >> no, you said you were. >> thursday night i'll know and i'll tell you this. we're being outspent 20 to 1. if we do you'll have a political story. >> would it be a miracle? >> my definition.

yes, it would. i'm on record. yes, it would. >> well, huckabee, of course, won the caucuses. the party's eventual nominee senator john mccain finished fourth. when we come back, what chris christie said on a hot mik after dropping out of a gop race, but is this really the end of his presidential ambitions? more with the panel next. presi? more with the panel next used to prevent shingles in adults 50 years and older. shingrix does not protect everyone and is not for those with severe allergic reactions to its ingredients or to a previous dose. an increased risk of guillain-barré syndrome was observed after getting shingrix. fainting can also happen. the most common side effects are pain, redness and swelling at the injection site, muscle pain, tiredness, headache, shivering, fever, and upset stomach. ask your doctor or pharmacist about shingrix today.

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she's going to get smoked, and you and i both know it. she's not up to this. >> she's still 20 points behind trump in new hampshire. he's -- you know, i talked to desantis called me, petrified that i would -- >> he's probably getting after iowa. >> welcome back. that, of course, was former

governor chris christie of new jersey caught on a hot mic minutes before he was announcing he was dropping out of the presidential race and the panel is here with me. marc, take it away. those moments are revealing and could he potentially be eyeing a third-party run. >> i think it's hard to see governor christie would run as a third party and how third part candidates will impact this race. i think donald trump has a low ceiling. he was roughly 46% in 2016, 46% in 2020. if you take the anti-trump vote and divide it among multiple candidates it really hurts biden and helps donald trump. he must hope there are multiple third-party candidates in this race, and in a head-to-head, you'd probably think biden has the advantage. if it's a multi-candidate race, it's anyone's game. >> weigh in on that because senator manchin got attention this week and he was in new

hampshire at the politics and eggs breakfast. he said he'll make a decision in the next several months and how concerned are democrats about what marc was talking about a third-party candidate. >> this election is about choices and democrats behind president biden and vice president harris and providing billions in infrastructure, clean energy, and those meat and potatoes-issues at the table, that's what people will have to decide, and this is about disarray in the republican party, and the caucus is pushing them. >> do you think the third-party candidate as marc is saying take away from president biden's support? >> it really hasn't been significant and they are laying the blueprint for how things proceed forward and time will tell, but it didn't work for ross perot. it's not going to work this time. >> third-party candidates, garrett, don't historically have any luck in general. >> well, that's true, right? they can help you lose. >> that's right. that's right. >> so let's talk about president biden. i mean, he is facing a real commander-in-chief moment.

here this week he ordered the strikes against iranian-backed houthi targets in yemen. we're talking about the scrutiny over his handling of the middle east. there's the war in ukraine. this is a commander in chief-moment while he's in the fight of his political life, garrett. >> this is a double-edged sword of incumbency. no one gets to imagine what they want you to do as leader of the free world, and he's been in this moment since october 7th. you've seen support for president biden go up among jewish-americans and they appreciate the way he's handled that war and he's been extremely outspoken about the death in gaza and whether or not he and americans are somehow more responsible for that, and the biden campaign believes they can bring those people back into the tent with choosing between the almighty and alternative. donald trump is not going to treat gazans any better than joe biden might, but he's very much in the spotlight on this issue and if you gave joe biden truth serum he said being in the pot light with foreign affair is something that he's perfectly comfortable and it's something that only the commander in chief

faces. >> how much focus is on president biden with the commander-in-chief moment he's having right now, particularly as we wait to see if there is a third-party candidate. >> right. i think iowan are absolutely paying attention. we saw the conversation shift toward foreign affairs as all of this is happening and you watch what joe biden is doing right now while they're campaigning and donald trump is in the courtroom. he's in new hampshire and going back to his original campaign message, which is this is about the sake of democracy, and so you really see him kind of calling back to those original messages that helped him win over donald trump. >> okay. marc, final point? >> i think the problem with joe biden's campaign so far is he hasn't been talking about the table issues. he's been talking about january

6th, and if there are multiple candidates, it will benefit donald trump a lot. >> you have about five seconds. >> joe biden is the president. he is leading. they're all trying to be president. this is a moment for our president to show leadership and bringing the world together. >> all right. thank you all for being here on the eve of the caucuses. we really appreciate it. great conversation. before we go, don't miss our special coverage of the caucuses tomorrow night beginning at 7:00 p.m. eastern on nbc news now and peacock. that's all for today. thank you so much for watching, and we'll be back next week because if it's sunday, it's "meet the press." ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ you're going to be first in the nation, so brave the weather and go out and save america because that's what you're doing. >> you're never going to have an opportunity where your voice and your vote is going to pack as much of a punch as it will tomorrow night. >> i know it's going to be cold rr