you know, there are surprises that happen. there are upsets that happen. but we would be talking about an upset we have never seen, and there really is no structure in place to create one. >> we should note, of course, it is important. voters will be voting tonight. that matters. democracy in action. 2024 campaign begins in earnest this evening in the iowa caucus. we, of course, will have complete coverage all day and all night long on msnbc. we want to thank brendan buck, political analyst, for being with us. thanks to him. thanks to you for getting up "way too early" on this monday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. >> well, i don't know what will happen now. we've got some difficult days ahead, but it really doesn't matter with me now because i've been to the mountaintop. i don't mind -- [ applause ]

like anybody, i would like to live a long life. longevity has its place, but i'm not concerned about that now. i just want to do god's will, and he has allowed me to go up to the mountain. i've looked over, and i've seen the promised land. i might not get there with ya, but i want you to know tonight that we as a people will get to the promise land! [ applause ] so i'm happy tonight. i'm not worried about anything. i'm not fearing any man. my eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the lord. >> dr. martin luther king jr. speaking in memphis on april 3rd, 1968, the night before he

was assassinated. today is martin luther king jr. day, and we will discuss dr. king's ongoing legacy, especially as important as ever, because today is also the first nominating contest of the pivotal 2024 presidential campaign. turnout for the iowa caucuses could be an issue because it'll be absolutely frigid tonight with temperatures well below zero across the state. voters must be at their caucus precincts by 7:00 central time, and weather will absolutely be a factor. with us, we have the president of the national action network and host of msnbc's "politics nation," reverend al sharpton. founder of the conservative website, the bulwark, charlie sykes is with us. the host of "way too early," white house bureau chief at "politico," jonathan lemire. and in iowa, nbc news national affairs analyst john heilemann

is with us this morning. joe? >> rev, i just wanted to talk about that remarkable, that remarkable speech in memphis before we launch into politics and all the other issues of this day. on that day, the night before martin luther king was shot, he talks about going to the mountaintop and seeing the other side. of course, using just an extraordinary reference from the old testament where god says to moses, "go up and see the land that i have prepared for the children of israel." talk about that night. talk about that legacy. talk about what it means for all of us today. >> well, i think that, clearly, it is a sermon he preached the

night before he was killed. he was in memphis, tennessee, to support striking garbage workers who were led by union afsme. he came as he was building to fight for poor people to have equal income, to have a better life, and he was under threat. people don't realize, dr. king in 1968 was very unpopular because he'd come out against the war in vietnam. even other civil rights leaders had attacked him. but he stood up on moral grounds. 55% of blacks said he was negative in the last poll they did on him before he died. he stood his ground. he stood for nonviolence. he stood for change. as you refer to in the bible, moses, who god brought up in the bible narrative, that god brought him up and let him look over to see the promise land but he didn't get there, and dr.

king said he will not get there with us, but we as a people will get to the promise land. here we are all these years later, where we are now facing some of the same battles. affirmative action being just about gutted by this supreme court. we're fighting dei. we have presidential candidates talking about the civil war should have been negotiated. i thought about, as i woke up this morning here in washington, and i'm here with martin luther king iii, his wife, his daughter, the only grand child of dr. king, doing our national action network breakfast. i thought about what dr. king would have thought, people talking about negotiating away the civil war, forgetting to mention slavery was part of the reason why the civil war was, and i think dr. king would be challenging us of all parties and races to make this beloved community a reality. don't just sit around complaining. do something about it. >>incredible, mika,

that, as the rev said, martin luther king, not popular in the final years of his life. he was seen as too radical by white america. he was seen as too passive and conservative with a small "c" by large segments of black america. he was despised by those who wanted to use violence to push civil rights. and -- who is talking in the studio there? >> i don't know. >> could you ask them to stop talking? >> okay. they heard you. >> here you have, what is remarkable, in 1965 -- 1964 and 1965, we had the second american revolution. as jon meacham says so beautifully and so eloquently, for the first time in american history, the laws of this land actually allowed black americans, the civil rights and the voting rights they had been

stripped from for so long. even three years later, people were pushing martin luther king, one of the most transformative figurescentury, to go even further and push for violence. he did not do it. he changed the world in a way very few have. just a remarkable time. important to remember martin luther king, and very important for americans, especially this year when american democracy is on the line and the rights of black americans, of all americans, rest and hang in the balance. >> absolutely. and i thank you both for those remarkable words. and the fight still today is almost as if we have fallen back. rev, you're going to be having president biden on your radio show today. give us a preview.

>> he's going to call in this afternoon at 3:00 on my syndicated radio show and talk about the legacy of dr. king as he sees it and the election, how it fits in. he was our speaker last year as president at this same break fast, and then i fly back to new york and we'll do my radio show. i think it's interesting, though, that we're having the iowa caucus on martin luther king holiday. >> yeah. >> and how race inadvertently became a part of it because of donald trump's statements and nikki haley's around slavery. so it seems like what dr. king would always say, make three steps forward and two backward. what martin luther king iii and others are trying to do is move things forward. it is a marathon, not a sprint. >> that is for sure. joe? >> let's go to john heilemann. i hope he is outside. no, he's not outside. we wanted that scene from

broadcast news where you're in the aleutian islands. >> you wanted to kill me. >> it is so cold there. i was listening to jonathan lemire and interviewing people about -- already talking about what was and what was not going to happen in south carolina, and i'm reminded of what tom brokaw said as we were all sitting around the table in 2008. all of us talking about -- saying our farewells to hillary clinton because she was going to get stomped the next day. >> right. >> going to get stomped in new hampshire. tom brokaw comes on and said, "i strongly suggest we wait until the voters have spoken." so when i look at these polls, and people are saying, well, this is dispositive. if this is how it is going to end up, it is a great poll. ann seltzer, one of the greatest

pollsters that we've had in decades, but that said, polls don't matter. what we guess doesn't matter. the voters go out and vote, and i'll tell ya what, i refuse to say before the first republican voter has voted that this race is over. but take us through iowa and what you've seen. >> well, first of all, joe, yes, you are trying to kill me. i appreciate that. i sent you a screenshot of the weather right around the time the poll came out on saturday night. the wind chill was negative 44, negative 45 or something on saturday night. i told you guys it was going to be bad, and nobody had any idea. you can't imagine, also, how much the weather here, because it killed an entire day of the campaign, everybody had to basically shut down on friday, how much it's been the dominant thing. for the people who work on the campaigns, the candidates themselves, everyone who covers

it, it's been more the story of this weekend than anything that's actually happened on the campaign trail. joe, to your point about polling, you know, ann seltzer will be the first to agree with you, you know, she'd say, "we're not predicting anything here. we're doing a snapshot in time." the one thing i will say, the poll on saturday night, the iowa poll, has been consistent with what the shape of this race has been over the course of the last nine months. that's where i start here. it's a really weird iowa caucus. it is weird in the sense that a lot of things that characterized caucuses in the past have not happened. it's had a different kind of -- the flavor of it, the machinations of it, the tenor of it, the lack of volatility, lack of surprises. i kind of spent this weekend thinking about some of those topics along with the weather, and i decided to bring you this piece. let's roll it. >> three, three.

negative 15 wind chill. >> there's one thing i know for sure. i am not in south carolina anymore. >> i'm really impressed that so many people came out given the weather. most floridians don't come north in january. >> the only thing is, i just landed an airplane, and it is nasty out there. >> reporter: from the moment des moines woke up, it was clear the final weekend before this year's iowa caucuses might look a little different than usual. >> what is going on on the ground three days out? >> as soon as i landed, they said there is a blizzard coming. foot of snow in the next 24 hours. the national weather service said life-threatening winter weather conditions in des moines. >> reporter: life-threatening or not, as the arctic blast slammed into iowa full force, the campaign trail, like iowa's roads, quickly became impassable. instead of frantically chris crisscrossing the state, nikki haley, ron desantis, and trump

closed down, bailing on all events except a couple. trump assured his iowa fans by social media he'd be back. the itinerary seemed tenuous. >> iowa, this is your favorite president. i'm leaving very shortly for your beautiful state. i'll get there sometime around saturday night or something. >> reporter: the sight of the republican field frozen in place was strange, but it's been a race politically frozen for months. on the gop side, iowa has a long and hard-earned reputation for caucus night surprises, the dark horse victories that, when the smoke cleared in 2008, 2012, and 2016, had these guys celebrating. >> tonight, i love iowa a whole lot. >> game on. >> god bless the great state of iowa. >> reporter: but this year, iowa hasn't felt much like iowa at all. there's been no volatility

whatsoever. trump has been up by roughly 30 points since last summer. among those who know iowa republican politics best, the possibility of a shock the world upset is vanishingly close to zero. >> no way trump doesn't win. >> almost impossible. iowa surprises people a lot. i don't think we have that kind of surprise in us right now. >> reporter: that was his view even before the release on saturday of the final nbc news/"des moines register," media com iowa poll conducted by the revered pollster ann seltzer, showing trump at 48% with a 28-point lead. only deepening the pervasive sense that trump has iowa in the bag. but the iowa poll also showed haley, for the first time, overtaking desantis, arguably turning their fight for second place into caucus night's main event. >> in this race, there has been no punches thrown from the contenders after the guy at the top, so here we are.

we know what's going to happen. the really only question is, who is two and three? then who stays in the race marching forward to new hampshire? it's crazy. >> reporter: you've seen seltzer poll, trump is 48 and haley is at 20. if those numbers were the real numbers, what is the story? >> she's the story. >> it's clear she'll earn the right to take on trump one-on-one. no way you win when it is trump versus the field. trump one-on-one will be a different dynamic. >> reporter: ann said haley's leap to second struck her at first, but she wonders about the strength of haley's support. >> we have a four-point scale. extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, mildly, or not that enthusiastic. the majority of her supporters are on the bottom half of the scale. they choose her as their first choice. they're only mildly or not that

enth enthusiastic. i've never seen that. >> reporter: we'll know soon if haley has the big mo, but someone who believes she does is trump. he amped up attacks on haley as her poll numbers have risen. >> i think president trump was the right president at the right time. i agree with a lot of his policies, but rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him. we can't be a country in disarray and have a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos. >> reporter: haley knows many who see trump as a menace want her to put caution aside and go after him guns blazing. the other day in indianola, she addressed that head on. >> for those who want me to hit trump more, i'm not going to do it. politics is personal enough. >> reporter: haley may need to change her tune, and fast, if she wakes up tuesday morning in a one-on-one battle with trump, an opponent whose definition of

personal enough is unlikely to be in the same galaxy as hers. >> guys, to me, a couple takeaways here, and i'll toss back to you to talk about it, one is this interesting question. if we end up in a situation where nikki haley has a big night and she ends up in a one-on-one essentially with trump, that's what people wanting to stop trump said we needed all along. they said it in 2016, 2020, and now 2024. you can't beat trump in a spread out field. you could end up after tonight with really the one-on-one dynamic that people have said is the only way for trump to ever be taken down. in that case, iowa will have winnowed the field and will have done its job. the other thing i'll say, ann seltzer's point about the lack of enthuiasm for haley, she holds out the possibility that it's a low turnout scenario, bad

weather, that ron desantis may surprise everybody and finishing second in the end. >> boy, that is troubling. if you're nikki haley and you look at this poll, and, you're right, the least inspired people, the least motivated people are your supporters. maybe at the end of the day, they all come out. maybe they're more anti-trump than pro-nikki haley, but, yeah, remarkable report. thank you so much. stay with us, john. i want to go to charlie sykes. charlie, we have been looking at a race between donald trump and ron desantis now for well over a year. that's been how this republican race has been framed. does that all change tonight if you have donald trump in the mid 40s, nikki haley in the mid 20s, and ron desantis down in the teens somewhere? is that the end for desantis? and does this become a one-on-one race, as nikki haley moves towards new hampshire where many believe she actually can win?

>> well, it ought to. i mean, if ron desantis is a reality check, he's spent all of his resources on iowa. if he finishes third, where does he have to go? he has no presence really in new hampshire. he is going to get smoked in south carolina. yeah, i think this is the end of the road for ron desantis whether or not he recognizes or not. so, yes, it does become one-on-one, but i have to say, you know, you have to pull back, though, the reality check, looking at the republican party, looking at the polls, looking at the map. over the weekend, marco rubio and mike lee refuing the idea that people fro in office, endorsing donald trump. the republican party is in the process not just in consolidating but in completely, once again, surrendering to donald trump. so we're going to play this out and pretend, maybe, that there is a glimmer of hope that

republicans will wake up sometime in march or april and say, "you know what? maybe we ought to move on from donald trump." right now, there is no indication that's going to happen. >> jonathan lemire, it does require, does it not, for donald trump to be kept in the mid 40s? we've been hearing from his campaign and others expecting to break 50, and a lot of people expecting him to have an absolute blowout. if nikki haley can keep this, you know, again, let's say mid 40s, to haley in the mid 20s, she has to overachieve here. then new hampshire, a state many people believe she can win. that's her inside strait. after winning there, she has a month before south carolina. oh, my god, as, you know, i think it was mcmillen who said, "a week in politics is a lifetime. a month, my god, that is enough for even donald trump to get in his own way."

>> that's certainly true, joe. i think we've seen a little bit of anxiety from trump folks in the last few days. because they were so boldly, confidently predicting this blowout. polls suggest he'll win by a sizable margin but maybe not by the number they had put out there. as you say, over 50%. there's a couple of reasons for that. one would be, of course, the weather. as heilemann noted, and i'm sorry to see he didn't have an andy reid, like, frozen mustache this morning from this brutal winter weather, there is concerns that people are going to stay home tonightbecause it'll be dangerous to be outside. legitimate reasons to stay home. trump, for the first time all campaign, the last 24, 36 hours, went on the attack against vivek ramaswamy of all people. ramaswamy has been supportive of trump throughout his campaign. he's never criticized him. but the trump people have really turned on him in recent days because ramaswamy is still sticking in the 7%, 8%, 9%.

his people who are for him are really for him, there's a lot of enthusiasm. trump is trying to bang those people down, trying to switch them over to him for his margins. desantis' people think they have the best ground game. what that means for a campaign that seems to be half dead, we'll see, but some think he'll have a better than expected number because his team is motivated and organized to get people to caucus sites despite the bad weather. yes, all eyes will be on the number that haley comes up with, joe and mika. if haley comes into the second place and has momentum, suddenly, next week, if she can win new hampshire, draws chris christie votes, if she can win new hampshire, then we have the binary choice in the republican party. haley and trump. trump will be favored, but you can never say never. >> we'll be watching this and talking about it a lot more. also, another anniversary to note, 30 years ago today on mlk day -- >> big day. >> it was a big day, rev. joe announced his first run for congress.

>> he announced on martin luther king day 30 years ago today. he had a dream. now, he is the king of morning news cable. >> ah, right. there you go. >> turned out a little differently than we expected. still ahead, we'll talk more about it on "morning joe." we'll bring you the new developments from the middle east, now 100 days since the hamas terror attack in israel. plus, new u.s. air strikes launch on houthi rebels in yemen. charlie mentioned senator rubio of florida, and senator lee of utah both endorsing donald trump for president this campaign season. here's a reminder of what they were saying in 2015. >> donald trump has been perhaps the most vulgar -- i don't think perhaps -- the most vulgar person to ever aspire to the presidency in terms of how he's carried out his candidacy. there is no way we are going to allow a con artist to take over the conservative movement, and donald trump is a con artist. >> he doesn't sweat.

he pores are clogged from the spray tan that he uses. donald is not going to make america great. he is going to make america orange. >> if anyone spoke to my wife or my daughter or my mother or any of my five sisters the way mr. trump has spoken to women, i wouldn't hire that person. i wouldn't hire that person, wouldn't want to be associated with that person, and i certainly don't think i'd feel comfortable hiring that person to be the leader of the free world.

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there are two hot wars on the world stage your husband is managing. there is the threat of another trump presidency, which we just talked about. he is a man indicted four times. he's doubling down on the conspiracy theories, flaunting the rule of law. many would say that literally everything is on the line. i think you just said that. this is a massive amount of physical and emotional stress. it would be on any person. your husband is 81. at the end of a second term, he'd be 86. as his life partner of 46 years, is there a part of you that is worried about his age and health? can he do it? >> he can do it. i see joe every day. i see him out, you know, traveling around this country. i see his vigor. i see his energy. i see his passion. every single day. >> so to those who say, "i can't

vote for joe biden. he is too old," what do you say? >> i think his age is an asset. >> he's wise. >> yes, he is wise. he has wisdom. he has experience. he knows every leader on the world stage. he's lived history. he knows history. he's thoughtful in his decisions. he is the right man or the right person for the job at this moment in history. >> first lady dr. jill biden in my exclusive interview last week on the question of president biden's age. joining us now, columnist and associate editor for "the washington post," david ignatius. david, you wrote the column that joe biden, president biden should not run again in 2024. when you look at how he is managing the world stage and you hear dr. biden's argument, that he knows everybody, he's been there, done that, any response? any update to your point of

view? >> so, as i wrote at the time in september, so many of president biden's policies i think are good. i think he's done a very good job of handling this extraordinarily difficult war in gaza. i think he has worked well with the secretary of state, antony blinken, and god bless him. the american public does seem to be concerned about his age. that's not you or me saying it. it's a feeling that's out there in the public. the polls consistently show that. the best thing he can do is demonstrate he is a strong leader, has a strong team, and is the best person not simply to beat trump but to lead the world in a very difficult period. i can't fault the leadership he is giving on these crises, but i don't -- i haven't lost my concern, nor has the public. >> joe, it is the presidency. it is the team that he has put together, as well. >> yup. >> many of the members of this

administration you and i both know well. >> yeah. >> in light of what they're facing on the world stage, which i think most americans pretty busy, you know, just getting to their jobs, putting food on the table are not as connected with, but he is addressing these two different wars very differently and with great, i think, wisdom, insight, and knowledge of history. >> well, everybody is going to have different viewpoints. i think neocons want him to do more. progressives and people on the trump right want him to do less. i think most -- i certainly know your father and most foreign policy experts would be saying he's done a remarkable job. you see the expansion of nato. you see what's happening in ukraine. right now, the ukrainians have their backs against the wall. things are going badly in the east. what is he doing? he is begging the republicans

for support. here's a republican party that won't support israel. here's a republican party that won't support ukraine. here's a republican party whose speaker came out and said, "we don't care what the republicans are doing to negotiate the toughest deal ever on the southern border. we're not doing anything. we're going to wait and use it as a political issue for the next year and let chaos abound on the southern border." that's who he is dealing with. yet, despite all of that, i believe he's done a great job on foreign policy. you look even to asia and see what's happened in asia. i do want to go, though, david ignatius, to you, and just say, you talked about the fuzzy language that was going to be needed to finesse this relationship. i get a sense, just from talking to people inside the white house, that the fuzzy language is going to end soon.

biden has had enough. he's going to say, "we strongly support israel. we do not support netanyahu." netanyahu, to paraphrase his old boss' words about assad, netanyahu must go. enough is enough. he's getting in the way of peace in israel and with the palestinians. what have you heard? >> joe, what i meant to speak about fuzzy language was more the diplomatic formulations down the road that will be part of negotiations. >> right. >> in the short run, i think biden's job and blinken's as his representative is to be as clear and tough as he can, as they can with israel, with make sure that the united states' interests, united states analysis of this war requires that we move toward much lower intensity quickly. blinken made that point. lower civilian casualties and a move toward finally beginning to

have a coherent plan for the day after. the president has to say that in a way that makes bibi netanyahu take notice. blinken came to israel with an offer from the leaders of saudi arabia, bin salman, to normalize relations with israel despite this war and, still, netanyahu hasn't yet responded. i think it is time to be tougher. for example, if the israelis, as they're doing, refuse to give tax revenues to the palestinians as they're supposed to, well, why not dock the payment that the united states owes israel under our aid agreements by that amount? don't want to give them the tax money? okay. the allotment that goes from u.s. taxpayers to israel, to you, will be reduced by that amount. that kind of toughness, i think, is going to be required. >> by the way, you talk about that toughness. not just toughness toward the extreme policies inside of israel that's hurting israel in the long run, but also, of

course, this weekend, article talking about -- i think it was in "the times" -- talking about the very people who wanted to avoid a regional war under now, because of what the houthi rebels continue to do, david, we are now in the throes of a regional war. where does that go from here? >> joe, for the moment, yes, i mean, definition al >> joe, for the moment, yes, i meandefinitionally, we are in a regional war, but there are rules. iran doesn't want to be in an all-out regional war. israel doesn't want that. we're on the brink. the houthis are still in the game despite heavy bombardment by the u.s., launched a missile at a u.s. destroyer. they're still trying to assert their power. the destroyer took that missile out. i've been struck by how

effective u.s. military power has been in dealing with these missiles. they're demonstrating the technological still we weren't sure they had. we're walking on eggshells, but i hear both from u.s. analysts and from israeli analysts, a belief that it's not in iran's or hezbollah's interest right now to take this over the lip of the waterfall into something much more dangerous. >> that's what you keep hearing. certainly, that is the word inside the white house and in the communities, the intel community. that said, of course, it's what netanyahu and so many people believed about hamas on october the 5th. we always have to remain vigilant. jonathan lemire, i find it fascinating that biden hoob has been struggling over the past two, three months in public opinion polls.

people have been pushing biden to do this, to do that, to be more active, to be more engaged. at the same time, and you know this from your reporting, because of the ongoing crisis in israel, because of the ongoing crisis in ukraine, because of the ongoing crisis in china which got amped up over the weekend with taiwan's election of a very pro-western president, joe biden is spending about 70%, 75% of his time inside the white house trying to prevent world war iii. he has to do it. any president, save donald trump, he'd be watching cable news, but any president in his position would be doing it. at the same time, it has gotten in his way of campaigning. >> there's no question. foreign policy has become such a focus for this president. now, this president was prepared for that. he, of course, spent decades on the senate foreign relations committee. he was the chairman. he was vice president for barack obama and trotted the globe on his behalf.

he is very comfortable with foreign policy. i think we've seen the biden doctrine, which is to stay the course, to not listen to the outside noise if you will. he took criticism for the afghanistan withdrawal, how it happened in the first summer of his presidency. then when he backed ukraine and stitched together a really impressive international coalition, revived nato, revived the alliances that donald trump so badly damaged, he received widespread praise, including from the other side of the aisle. but he has now had to completely focus on there. there are, as much as the president believes this is the right thing to do and his aides and others think he is not looking at domestic politics while managing these foreign issues, of course it bleeds in. the israel-hamas conflict, we've seen the polls about how so many democrats are disenchanted with how biden has backed israel, mika, and it's hurt him, at least for now, among progressive voters, voters of color and young voters.

there's time for that to change between now and november, and this administration hopes it will. they hope the middle east calms down a degree between now and then, but for now, the president has had to focus on foreign policy. yes, to the detriment of his domestic campaigning. >> absolutely. it's been a real focus. david, between israel, the taiwan elections, and ukraine, as joe mentioned, your final thoughts this morning? >> one thing we've seen over the weekend that i think should encourage everyone is the election in taiwan. china really tried hard to intimidate voters in taiwan, against voting for the democratic progressive party. it has a strong line of separate identity for taiwan. despite that intimidation, the winner of that election is the new president, lai ching te, who will follow the same policies

that the current president has followed, which really upset beijing. beijing says it is a dangerous choice and did a lot of saber rattling before the election. you know what? taiwanese voted the way theyn't wanted. democracy has its faults, but people in taiwan under threat still want it, still vote for it. that's a good thing. >> yeah. >> in a world where there are a lot of bad things. >> a lot. joe? >> it really was a great outcome. "the washington post"'s david ignatius, a national treasure, thank you so much, sir. please say hello to your father for us. >> oh, yes. >> i will. 103 and going strong. watching "morning joe." >> good morning, sir. >> pleased to hear it. >> oh, my gosh, okay. >> good morning, sir. thank you, david. john heilemann, we brought up afghanistan, which reminds us in american politics, if foreign policy goes well, if you manage

regional crises in israel and ukraine, and you expand nato, you have historic advances against the russians and one-third of the russian army is destroyed -- and i could keep going on and on -- and you pivot to asia, and suddenly japan and korea are talking, philippines, et cetera, et cetera, you know where i'm going. americans are like, yeah, that's great. >> with all that -- >> with the decision joe biden made in afghanistan, which, of course, joe biden made that decision in afghanistan not '21 or '22. he made that decision in 2009. >> right. >> when he threw down his napkin and basically said, "you're a scam artist." talk about that. not much upside.

ask george h.w. bush about being a good foreign policy president. i guess in iowa right now among republicans, foreign policy is just not on their mind, is it? >> no. i mean, the extent it is on anybody's mind, there's the part of the party in this party, the democratic party, and those that cater to it want to retreat from the world stage. they have the isolationist tendency. we see it in both parties. when it pops up in domestic politics, we see it. but you're right, it is a thankless part of being president of the united states. you basically get no political credit for all the things, as you made that list, because there is a presumption on the part of a lot of americans that that's what america's role should be in the world. creating peace through strength, keeping markets open, doing those things, it's, like, "thank you very much. what have you done for me lately

domestically?" if you have one policy that doesn't go well, you're projected as showing weakness for america abroad. joe biden has an appreciation for the fact that history will look kindly on him for the degree of difficulty of running, right now, two hot wars in two of the most important regions on earth, and doing it extremely well. but in terms of his domestic politics, in terms of his re-election in 2024, i think it will, you know, with that and about ten bucks, you could get him a nice starbucks vete latte. there's no political upside in this for joe biden. >> as richard haass said a couple weeks ago, the one thing he learned about -- from george h.w. bush's presidency when he was working with george h.w. bush, is when it came to foreign policy, doing the right thing all the time and being great at

your job wasn't enough. you actually had to still do more. john heilemann, thank you so much. absolutely loved your look, your view at iowa. greatly appreciate it. we will be talking to you tomorrow morning. >> miss you guys here. >> we miss you, too. enjoy the weather. [ laughter ] anyway, charlie sykes, you're in the middle of that weather, too. i have to say, if foreign policy doesn't matter to republicans that are voting, ann seltzer and "the des moines register" poll also shows us that donald trump's crimes, possible crimes, possible conviction, 61%, don't matter if he is convicted. one in five say it'll make him more likely to support him. there you have 80% of republicans saying, "we don't

care, and it may make us more likely to support him." shows you just the sickness, the corrupting influence donald trump has. here we have a "new york times" story talking about college-educated republicans who went for desantis. charlie, they're so shocked and stunned by the justice department's overreach, that they're now saying, "we're going to support donald trump," even though he stole nuclear documents. even though he stole secret war plans on how we're going to attack iran. even though he stole assessments that show our weakness. even though he illegally shared secret war plans with members of his campaign staff. even though we believe, if you believe those that work for him, he then tried to obstruct

justice and obstruct the fact that he had these documents. so i could go on and on and on, but, you know what? it's an excuse. everybody has an excuse in the republican party on why they want to vote for donald trump. they don't even care if he is convicted. what does it say about the party? >> well, it says that it is getting even worse than we thought it was, right? i mean, you know, that poll is, of course, a monument to the alternative silos we have, but also to the way donald trump has affected the character of his own political party. donald trump is donald trump. he has always been the same guy, but look what he has done to republicans. republicans who used to be the party of law and order and used to care about character, look what has happened to them and the judgments they're making right now. you can write-off the elected officials capitulation as

cowardice, but they're afraid of a republican electorate that doesn't care. one of the dangers of 2024 and beyond is the success that donald trump is having and will continue to have, perhaps, in delegitimizing the entire criminal justice system. to basically do to the criminal justice system what he's done to so many institutions, rob them of credibility and legitimacy. otherwise, how do you explain the fact that millions of republicans look at judges, juries, look at the evidence and say, "we don't care about this. this is not real"? this is going to have a very, very long tale, unfortunately. for all the frustrations with joe biden, 2024 is not a referendum on joe biden. it is a choice. this choice is pretty stark. >> yes, it is. the bulwark's charlie sykes, thank you so much for coming on this morning. up next, a shocker in dallas and history in detroit. espn's pablo torre will join us

to break down the nfl playoff action from over the weekend. and as we go to break, here is a bit of my interview with first lady dr. jill biden. the part from our know your value event which took place in the east wing of the white house. and a bit of fun with some rapid-fire. >> well, i am going to do a little rapid-fire. i have -- >> uh-oh. >> you think about a lot of things, so don't think. just blurt. >> blurt, okay. >> don't think, blurt. what is the one word that comes to mind when i say "aging"? >> grace. >> there. campaigning. >> tough. >> okay. 50 over 50. >> success. >> fabulous. your favorite emoji. >> oh, my gosh. the turquoise heart. >> turquoise heart. >> yeah. >> i don't have a turquoise heart on my phone. [ laughter ]. >> what does it mean? >> it's like the beach, calm.

>> i like that. >> color of the sea. >> do i type out "turquoise heart"? okay. comfort food. >> french fries. >> yeah, yeah. retirement. >> whenever. >> early bird or night owl. >> early bird, for sure. >> okay. your grandkids call you. >> nana. >> aw. what is your most strongly held belief. >> that acts of kindness really matter. >> well, this is kind of a bad turn. define fextin dp. >> >> texting with an "f." >> so -- well, you don't know, but i'll tell ya. >> i get this. i actually -- >> you have this? >> yeah. >> so when you're in the car and you're texting, you're fighting with your husband. >> she's not driving. >> there are two secret service agents in the car with you, you

know, and you can't say, you're a whatever. you're texting, you're a whatever, you know? it's fighting over text because you can't verbalize it. [ laughter ] >> fexting, fighting over text. i love it. i think i might have done that a time or two in my life. >> yes, too. >> morning coffee order. >> black. >> okay. >> it's easy. you know, i learned that during the campaign. >> extra hot, extra -- >> oh, my goodness, too much. >> i need a lot of shots. it's early. by the way, joe, willie, or mika? >> oh, mika. >> right. i know. wasn't hard at all.

there is a lot of information out there. hamas is a terrorist group oppressing the palestinian people. hamas refused a continued ceasefire, a continued pause in fighting and more aid from israelis in exchange for just freeing more hostages. instead, hamas resumed attacks.

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much more. take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify. get over here kids. time for today's lesson. wow. -whoa. what are those? these are humans. they rely on something called the internet to survive. huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die? worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look! they figured out a way to keep the internet on. yeah! -nature finds a way. [ grunt ] stay connected when the power goes out, with storm ready wifi from xfinity. and see migration in theaters now.

one time out. second and nine for jared goff. goff throws and it is caught by st. brown for a first down. all the lions have to do is take care of the ball here, and they will win a playoff game. goff. a very important place. yeah, you see a few tears in there for those folks. one more knee, and business is done. detroit, for the first time in 32 years, your lions have won a playoff game. how about it? >> yeah, baby. oh, yeah. a game-sealing first down at the two minute mark allowed the detroit lions to run out the clock and beat the los angeles rams. 24-23 breaks the losing streak,

the longest in league history for just their second playoff victory since winning the 1957 nfl title. it means so much more, though, for the people of detroit. it means so much more for this lions team. they started out 0-6 last year. i will tell you what, as i've discussed with pablo, 0-6, 1-6, you could tell they were a great team. what a game for jared goff. talk about redemption. let's bring in right now -- such a happy pablo torre finds out's pablo torre. two extraordinary games. the dallas cowboys do what they always do, collapse. like being a braves fan and watching them win the division 11, 12 years in a row, and knowing whether they've won 99 or 105 game, they're going to lose. like being a dodgers fan right now. but we'll get to dallas in a

second. >> we will. >> talk about a problem franchise. but let's talk about detroit. man, what a great story. what an exciting story. i remember last year, going on twitter, telling lions fans, you guys, maybe a bad record, but you guys are an extraordinary team. they're like, nope, this is us. we're the lions. we'll never be good. man, they deserve this. >> joe, 32 years, man. >> whoa. >> people need to appreciate what this was because this is detroit, a great american city, finally surviving past the first scene in the horror movie where they've lived, right? >> yeah. >> this has not happened in three decades, and so this team, this city, this fan base that has been crying out for help, the poetry of this game was not merely that they finally broke through and did it, now they can say, "wow, we feel like we can

hang our heads high again," it's because they did it with jared goff at quarterback against the los angeles rams. for people who don't appreciate what jared goff was feeling, it was a version of a similar bit of closure, a psychotherapy bit of closure. for him to beat the team that dumped him. >> yeah. >> remember, the rams, this team that won the super bowl after getting rid of jared goff because he was derived as a puppet for their head coach, sean mcvay, he got to prove it. like going to your high school reunion and saying, "look at me now. look what i can do." jared goff led them to a win that is historic in the literal and figurative sense. it's emotional and real. it's just one of the greatest feel-good games that we've seen literally in 30 years. >> well, it is. i'm so glad you said this because this was much more than just a football team winning a

game. first time in 32 years. we hear that a lot. this is just a great team. they were on "hard knocks." you saw campbell the beginning of last season. >> no doubt. >> you saw these players you loved. jack and i fell in love with st. brown. what a great guy. watching his dad taking him to the weight room, pushing him. hometown boy aidan hutchinson, he is there. you talked about jared goff. man, if this isn't the feel-good team of the year, i don't know what is. let's go ahead, though, and turn the page to the clunker. >> yes. >> i mean, holy cow. jerry jones, what is he going to kick this morning, man? >> everything. >> what an absolute, total collapse in dallas. you could kind of see it coming because this happens to dallas every year. >> the definition of insanity, joe, is what, doing the same thing over and over again,

expecting a different result. so these are the dallas cowboys who are the bizarre-o lions in all ways and forever it seems. their story for so long has been, they're just good enough to get to the postseason and be ritualistically hhumiliated. it's what we saw. it's amazing when you have a team, america's team, no less, that everybody but then can make fun of for the same reason every time. there is the rake lying in jerry jones' yard. there is him stomping on it with two feet. this was the worst loss, i would say, the worst loss in cowboys history, which is saying quite a bit. this is a team -- joe, to recap the season, 16 straight wins at home. dak prescott invincible. invincible playing at home. an amazing defense. jordan love, the guy who replaced aaron rodgers, and everyone said, "are you really going to cut ties with the two-time mvp aaron rodgers? really?

you're going to roll the dice with this rookie out of utah state?" yes, they rolled the dice. yes, this decision has been vindicated. it's just funny when you can get jerry jones and aaron rodgers in one -- >> look at that! the pass play right there. >> incredible. >> that's a basic madden video game pass play. >> yeah, yeah. >> nobody was within 20 yards. >> as open as anyone has ever been. it was that guy. >> the most open anybody has ever been. also, you talk about dallas' great defense, and everybody does, but the bills ran over them, through them. the packers ran over them, ran through them. then on pass plays, i mean, how many times can jordan love be falling off of his back foot and throw -- >> it's the fadeaway on the back foot, yes. >> the players he threw to, always open. >> that's right. >> crazy.

>> favre, rodgers, jordan love. this is what they are saying in green bay. no franchise has done it like this. the hardest thing in the nfl is to find a quarterback. they've gotten three of them, and this is the key part, they've sold high every time. >> every time. >> it is a ridiculously impressive run they're on right now. >> it really is. jonathan lemire, i'll let you get a question in. it's the top of the hour. again, i'll remind everybody, the nfl, 19 of the top 20 ranked primetime shows last year, nfl games. i think people will be patient about us talking about the nfl playoffs for one minute before we get to the top news stories. we have to talk about dak prescott. he looked so impressive this year in regular season. always a bad scene. last night, he was terrible. he was off. he was underthrowing. he was -- and after every bad throw, he'd look at the best receiver in the league and would, like, point at him.

he'd dpesgesture at him. they kept saying, "you know, cc la linking up." he was gesturing to him, and you don't want that from your quarterback. >> prescott was fragile. the cowboys were so fragile. lamb had one bad drop early, and they never recovered. it seemed like prescott was blaming him for the balls he threw that weren't good. he was tentative all day. the pick six was the end of the game in the first half. missed the coverage. i'll note it was on thursday on this show i predicted bill belichick to dallas because the cowboys were going to lose, which they did, and belichick would be a fit. they need help on the defensive end. >> i can verify this. >> yes. >> chiefs and dolphins, saturday

night, terrible conditions. very, very cold. andy reid, mustache froze. >> yeah. >> preview of what will happen in the iowa caucus today. the dolphins were terrible. questions about tua. also, i should say, the chiefs made a statement here. we shouldn't count out their chance yet. >> was it the fourth coldest nfl history game? yes. is it a fact that tua tagovailoa can't win under 40 degrees? yes. sometimes, who has the best player? patrick mahomes, for the mvp talk, and someone else besides him will win it this year, you just want that guy. sometimes sports validates your most basic, simplistic analyses. yeah, who has patrick mahomes? i'd like him. the dolphins, meanwhile, are watching this and realizing, is our guy, is tua going to be enough going forward? this is one of those games that may have derailed his future in miami.

they need him to overcome weather-related obstacles in the afc. >> mahomes' helmet even broke. joe, the houston texans, impressive. c.j. stroud, the quarterback, was spectacular. the joe flacco dream scenario came crashing down with a pair of pick sixes on saturday, as well. two games today. steelers/bills postponed because of weather, that's at 4:30 in buffal >> going to be a great game. >> weather still not great but they'll play. then eagles at bucs. >> baker mayfield. >> how can he not be the comeback player of the year? pablo, i know i have to go, but, yeah, tua didn't do well. those miami dolphins players, though, the defense, they literally turned sideways. i'm serious, so they didn't have to make contact with oncoming chiefs. it was a rough ride. who do you like tonight? >> i l baker mayfield and the

bucs. the bills at home in the weather against the steelers team that got outscored on this season. they were outscored, the steelers were impressive but outscored in totality. give me the bills and the bucs, please. >> all right. i also, by the way, always have a soft spot for the browns. they shall return. you can listen to more of pablo through his podcast, "pablo torre finds out" on meadowlark media. thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. hope you come tomorrow morning. we can talk for way too long about the games tonight. >> absolutely. sorry to mika. it is voting time. the iowa caucuses are taking place tonight. the first nominating contest of the 2024 presidential campaign. >> yes. and because it is pablo, i let you go seven minutes over. >> thank you. >> but turnout could be an issue with temperatures well below zero across the state. it is something the candidates referenced in their closing

arguments yesterday. >> you're going to be first in the nation, so brave the weather and go out and save america. that's what you're doing. >> you're never going to have an opportunity where your voice and your vote is going to pack as much of a punch as it will tomorrow night. >> i know it is going to be cold tomorrow. i get it. i know it is going to be cold, but think about this, you get to set the direction for the country. >> you can't sit home. if you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, i have to make it. even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it. remember, if you're sick, just so sick you can't -- darling, i don't think -- get up. you get up, and you vote. >> that was -- okay. joining the conversation, we have former chief of staff to the dccc and senior aide to hillary clinton and biden

campaigns, adrienne elrod. and msnbc former host chris matthews. and reverend al sharpton is still with us. joe, it seems tonight if nikki haley comes in second, the question will be, does she take on trump? she seems like she just won't, maybe because she wants to be his running mate, but she will not make that definition between her and him, or will she? >> well, i mean, also, the one thing that people forget is she is running for the republican nomination. as i always say, you know what? we're in the conversion business here. we're in the conversion business. get people to vote for you for you. say what you will about donald trump. obviously, you want to be able to pull some of those trump people over. again, you're not going to pull the hard core people over, but the people on the fringes that have concerns, that's what nikki haley has to do. chris matthews, she has to do it

tonight in iowa to a lesser degree than the next week in new hampshire, but it is so fascinating. i'm hearing everybody saying this race is over, and, you know, probably, maybe, could be over. nobody has voted yet. not one person has voted yet. we don't know what will happen tonight. we're always shocked by iowa. then we're always shocked by new hampshire. then we're always shocked that things don't play out exactly the way we think they're supposed to play out. let the people vote, right? >> right. can i just say, joe and mika, that it is martin luther king day. for him, honoring him. i was talking to the reverend beforehand. the two greatest speeches i think in american history were given by lincoln in the second inaugural, talking about what happens taken back by the whip, then by the sword, losing americans in the civil war because of slavery. old testament look at things. then a new testament speech by martin luther king in august of

'63 when he talked about the whole geography of america and our country, what we all shared together, and how he talked about the mountains, the hills of mississippi, and he made fun of the south in a sense, and it was really these two remarkable speeches, both given on the eve of their deaths. lincoln right after that -- being re-elected and inaugurated, he was killed. both killed by single people it looked like. great bill of health, apparently. but it's the inspiration that came out of it. from down in the dirt, they brought up this sense of america. i said no speechwriter can do this for a living. nobody can give a speech like either of those gentlemen did because they were inspiring about who we are in the depths of this country. i wanted to say that because it is a big day for us all. >> it is. >> you know, i think, joe, you're dead right about it. i think trying to figure out the nuances of the nikki haley vote, whether it is as the pollsters

said, it's very thin and may not be pushy enough to go out there in this snow. you have to put the clothes on. you have to go out there and wait. then you have to express yourself in public. this is a strange caucus. it is a caucus. you have to go out there and tell people where you stand. one thing i noticed about the trump vote over the last three elections, and it's still glowing, it puddles. that's my new word for this election. it puddles like during a rainfall, and it goes into different puddles which grow. they grow as a puddle. people feel societiable about their votes. they're with their friends. as my brother says, i'm for trump and all my friends are. this thing about this community, when you're in iowa, you're talking to a community every time you vote. they'll see how you vote. you're going to nikki? i saw you went to nikki last week. they'll hold that in their hearts for days and months. they'll remember that. you were with nikki, i noticed. you weren't with us, with trump. >> yup. >> i think this is a weird situation. >> it is. >> the caucus state, i think

trump will do well. i've never met a trump person that's changed, really. >> yeah. >> they're baked in. i'm sorry. >> it's true. >> i'm sorry. >> i've got to say, and i understand, chris, and it's always, i think, been very helpful that you're around trump people in your own family. i'm always trump people in my own family. i can tell you, it's been a bit of a shock, rev. i talk about conversions, but they have changed. now, they're not going to be voting, rev, for joe biden. they're not going to be voting for democrats, but they're not going to be voting for donald trump. and i think it was january 6th. i think it was the attacks against ron desantis. i think it was the attacks against the other republicans. it was the sheer exhaustion that was setting in. so there is around the corner a conversion. here's a guy who was president of the united states for four years, an incumbent, sitting at 48%.

you look at past presidents. let's say barack obama were running in the iowa caucus today. he'd have 98%. he would. so we look at the 48%, we're shocked and stunned and deeply saddened. how could they do that when donald trump, you know, stole nuclear secrets? he wants to terminate the constitution. he wants to execution generals. he wants to take tv networks off the air that are insufficiently loyal. he wants to do all these other things that are just shocking. he does, but -- and chris is so right, they do huddle. it's like especially in rural areas, rural voters, the more rural the voter, the stronger they seem to be in their support for donald trump. we go to new hampshire, we go to south carolina, you know, we still are a month and a week away from south carolina and two elections. a lot can happen between now and then. >> i think a lot can happen. i think that with all of the

high numbers we see in the polling of donald trump, i think that, ultimately, donald trump loses. i really believe that this country will not have someone that is an indicted charlatan and who we know has served this country already four years, and what happened? a man that denied a pandemic was coming. fought science. when the pandemic got here, he told us to take bleach. i really don't think most americans are going to go there. i think a lot of his cult followers will always affirm their cult status, but i think that at the end, good reasoning will take place. i think when chris talks about lincoln and king, there's always going to be struggles. there's going to be forward movement and backward, but as we look at iowa on this martin luther king day, you know, the bad side is we're still fighting around voting fights and

affirmative action and dei. the good thing is, since king, we've had a black president elected and re-elected. >> this is true. >> and a black woman is sitting as vice president today. >> and this is true. >> and i believe if you keep going forward, you can win. >> rev, you're exactly right. a black president, a black vice president, and right now, a president -- and i know you're going to be talking to joe biden about this today -- who has fought like hell, fought like hell for voting rights for black americans. fought like hell for the john lewis voting rights act that republicans killed. fought like hell for other voting rights acts that republicans have killed. time and again, every time, he has tried to lift the barriers for black americans, for hispanic americans, for young voters to go out and vote. he's been pushing hard. he's got it passed through the

senate. what happens? republicans kill it. it's always dead on arrival because they want to put uppair barriers and always have. >> absolutely. when i was a kid and watched on the news, george wallace stand in the door at the university of alabama, then i looked to see that one of the people that first integrated that school was mar may mary maied to the first black attorney general eric holder years later, i think now that we don't have the right to complain. we need to go to work. we have a lot more to work with against our adversaries than they had. i think joe biden -- >> no doubt. >> -- fought this. i think all of us have fought this. we have to fight it. >> joe. >> no doubt about it. i'm waiting for your interview

with the president of the united states later today. of course, commemorating martin luther king jr. day. >> on your radio show. >> on your radio show. yes, we have come such, such a long way since the passing of martin luther king. at the same time, i think all good americans know that we still have quite a distance to go toward that more perfect union. that's what makes america great. we're never satisfied. we keep pushing toward that prize. we don't need to be ashamed of it. we sure as hell don't want to look back. republicans want to look back, "oh, i liked how things were in the 1950s." well, we're not there! you know, there are a lot of people who have passed that i wish were still here. they're gone. the 1950s are gone. but what an extraordinary world we live in today.

how great that we actually have somebody that wants to make it better instead of looking backwards to 2020, instead of looking backwards toward the 1950s. please, please. he can go back to the 1950s. we can make things better here. adrienne, front page of "the new york times" today talking about complaints, worries, fears, concerns, bedwetting, democrats have about the biden white house not doing enough. they need to push some of their people out of the white house to get out on the campaign trail. i know you know this. i certainly know it. my sources inside the white house say that's exactly what they're going to do. they're going to let republicans beat themselves up for a little bit. they're going to move forward. when the time is right, coming soon, they're going to move some of their most talented political people out of the white house and let them go. have the glory of going to

wilmington, delaware. >> yay. >> i mean, sheesh, joe, we democrats love to bed wet every time we're in this moment of the campaign cycle. this white house is filled with campaign veterans. there is a separation between campaigns and governing, through there's a lot these folks can do. dylan ran the campaign in 2020, saved democracy along with joe biden. there's a lot these folks can do from the white house. we love to bed wet here. i feel very confident with the biden campaign team, biden/harris campaign team. i feel very confident with the folks in the biden/harris administration. they're all working together. look, you know, joe, you know this very well, when you're running for president like president biden was as the democratic nominee in 2020, you don't have the white house. you have the dnc that is a supportive apparatus, but you don't have the white house. biden is running with the full white house behind him.

he has an extra boost there. you need smart tacticians in the administration to make sure that he's using the bully pulpit from the white house to talk about his accomplishments, to get the message out about all the great things this administration has been doing. feel very confident. >> adrienne, such a good point. people, again, because they're stressing out, catastrophizing, is donald trump the incumbent? he is not. joe biden is the incumbent. he has the power of the incumbency. again, i love what james carville said. if all these people complaining want a seat at the table, that's great. but they need to sit down and shut up. that was carville saying that, not me. the governor of pennsylvania was on, and he said, "instead of complaining. roll up your sleeves. get to work. let's save democracy." >> yeah, quit tweeting, quit giving blind quotes to "the new

york times." get out there, get on the phone, start volunteering for the campaign. start talking to your friends and neighbors. get people activated and involved in the election. it is never too early to get involved. there's so much volunteers can do, but the complaining is not helpful. this happens every time i've been on presidential campaigns, down ballot campaigns. the complainers, it gives more fuel to us supporting the campaign. it certainly gives more fuel to the campaign itself. it makes them want to try harder. we democrats, this is what we do. >> jonathan lemire. >> we talked earlier in the show about how the biden white house stays the course with its foreign policy. the same can be said about hiss approach to the campaigns. they're going to tune out the noise. they're not going to listen to what is on twitter/x. some is the president's stubbornness. some is what worked before, and they believe it'll work again. with voters starting to vote

tonight, finally voters voting, and if donald trump puts up the win we think, then a trump nomination becomes that much more of a reality. we take one step closer to that binary choice, trump/biden, and that's when the biden team has always believed that people will come home. they'll vote for him because they don't want to go down the donald trump way. we should also mention a little news this morning. the biden campaign team's strategy has always been to start ramping up events this year because they spent last year raising money. they put out news this morning that they raised more than $97 million. the re-election team and the dnc raised more than $97 million in the final three months of last year, which includes $235 million from its launch in april. they finish the year with $117 million in cash on hand, which is the most any democrat has ever had at this point in an election cycle. this is going to be extraordinarily expenive campaign. democratic aides say to me that they think it is going to be about $2 billion. they're going to need a lot more than this, but this is a

positive number, they say, and they believe another sign that their strategy, though criticized by some of their fellow democrats, is going to work. >> let's go back to iowa. joining us now from des moines, iowa, senior writer for "the dispatch," david drucker. in your latest newsletter, david, you focused on nikki haley's potential second place win and what it would mean. what are you hearing out there? >> well, it's really interesting, guys, because we know who the winner is going to be, at least we all think we do. this is really in the final days before caucus night, this evening, been a race for second place. this final, not quite final, but one of the final opportunities to try to emerge as an consensus alternative to donald trump with new hampshire and other early states coming next. it's really been a battle here between the ron desantis ground game and nikki haley's momentum. i will say, you know, looking at the two campaigns, the desantis

campaign has plenty of volunteers and paid staff working the phones and knocking on doors. the people on that end of things with the super pac tell me they probably feel a little bit better than they might have a right to based on the polling they're looking at. the campaign at times looks as though it's worried it is going to end up finishing third. the haley campaign, look, it may not turn out as well as they want, but the haley campaign looks legitimately bbuoyed, confident, and feeling they'll head into new hampshire where the polling shows they're within striking distance of donald trump. the haley team is cognisant of managing expectations, though. i interviewed nikki haley yesterday at a final event. when i asked her, "do you think you can finish second? what is a strong finish," here's what she told me. "we won't know what strong is until we see the numbers." choose your own adventure here.

but you have ground game versus momentum. we're going to see, especially with this weather, whether haley's momentum converting some democrats and independents into polls and voters i've talked to, can see desantis and the conservative caucus we used to think of as the base of the republican party, a base that is now dominated by the conservative populists that are supporting donald trump. >> all right. david drucker, thank you so much. >> thank you, david. >> i love the way you framed that. i'm going to go to chris about it, but it is ground game versus momentum. i mean, chris, he just puts it perfectly. you and i both know, adrienne certainly knows it, anybody that has been in politics knows, there's nothing like what george h.w. bush called big mo, you know, big momentum. you know, people just sense when

the wind is at your back, and it is certainly the political winds are at nikki haley's back. you look and think, oh, man, she's going to end up in second place. then you look at the weather conditions. you look at ron desantis' ground game. he buried so much money into the ground game which i think is actually always the right political move. so we have these two forces come together. with the weather conditions as badly as they are, you need that ground game. you need those phone calls. you need those knock on doors. you need those drives to the caucus sites to get there. we really have no idea what's going to happen, but david drucker said it perfectly, haley's momentum versus desantis' ground game, and second place is at stake and possibly much, much more. >> yeah, it's like the pollster telling you this morning, early in the program, about not having the really strong pushiness behind her, the real urge to vote that the other candidates

had. she said she'd never seen that before in a candidate with so much momentum, if you will, but not enough underpinning of strength. i think it is going to be very close tonight. i want to say something, i don't know if you watched "meet the press" yesterday, but kristen welker kept pushing joni ernst, the long-time senator. i thought she'd be a short-term senator but she's a survivor. she pushed her on the question, which i love that she did, "are you going to support donald trump even if he pardoned all the people of january 6th?" that includes the 200 who pled guilty to felonies. you know, trying to kill cops. these people were cop killers. what are we talking about here? she said, "it's up to the president." i mean, if she's afraid, being entrenched as a senator, afraid to take on the simple question, "i certainly wouldn't let the felons out," she's going along with him. >> crazy. >> what is this? this puddling. >> mike lee, marco rubio, the endorsements, are you kidding

me? >> it is fearing trump. no matter what the guy says, he is like henry viii, no matter what he says, they're afraid of him. >> joe. >> well, you know, it is so distressing that people say this, senators will say this when they have five years until their next election or four years until their next election. they are still so afraid of donald trump's followers that they won't even say, "no, i will not support somebody that pardons a felon that beat the hell out of cops and was part of a riot that ended up resulting in the death of four police officers according to their families. no, i won't be a part of that." by the way, that's just the simplest question to answer. they can't answer it. mike lee over the weekend going, oh, this has become a binary choice between trump and biden. no, it's not actually that. you could vote for nikki haley. you can still vote for desantis.

there hasn't been a single vote cast, but they're cowards. they're jumping on board as quickly as they can for whatever reason. here is an interesting number also, mika, that we haven't talked about yet. ann seltzer talking about how nikki haley supporters seem to be the least intense. also, look at this, if the general election choice was donald trump or joe biden, 43% of nikki haley's supporters say, i guess, they just can't bear the fact of donald trump being president. 43% would vote for joe biden instead of donald trump. mika? >> that is sort of the balance that she's striking, i guess, in her candidacy. but iowa tonight appears to be donald trump's. then we move on. still ahead on -- >> we'll see. let them vote. what's that? >> i said, we shall see. let them vote. >> let them vote. >> we'll report who voted for

whom tomorrow morning. >> yes, i only said it appears to be. still ahead on "morning joe," we'll have much more coverage ahead of tonight's first in the nation caucuses. it wouldn't be an election day, though, without steve kornacki joining us from the big board. plus, the biden campaign is on the ground in iowa. we'll be joined by a co-chair for the president's re-election effort. also ahead, former president trump is set to return to court this week after a judge refused his request to delay a second defamation trial involving writer e. jean carroll. we'll talk about what to expect and whether or not trump might testify. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back.

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great, late gangster, al capone, scarface, he killed people. al capone was indicted one time. i've been indicted four times because i said the election was rigged. i was right. >> donald trump over the weekend comparing himself to the infamous mob boss, al capone. this comes just days after trump reposted a video from former mob boss, sammy the bull, thanking him for his support. i mean, i just -- anyhow -- a judge has denied trump's request for a week-long delay to the second defamation trial brought by e. jean carroll to he can travel to his mother-in-law's funeral in florida. the judge criticized judge kaplan on social media, calling him a, quote, bad person, for

not pushing back the trial, slated to begin tomorrow. trump's appearance at the trial is voluntary. he doesn't have to go. judge kaplan offered condolences but denied the request, saying trump has more than enough time and resources to be in court in new york on tuesday and then travel to florida by thursday for the funeral set for friday. trump's request raised some questions since he has a campaign rally in new hampshire scheduled for thursday. when he claims to be traveling for the funeral. the judge and carroll's attorney pointed out this fact when addressing trump's request for a delay. it is unclear if that campaign event is still on or has been postponed or canceled. by the way, he wouldn't have this court issue if he didn't defame e. jean carroll again after being found liable of defamation. so he brought this on himself. joining us now, former litigator and msnbc legal analyst, lisa

rubin. lisa, what do we expect to happen in that trial of significance? again, he doesn't have to be there, does he? >> he certainly doesn't have to be there, mika. the campaign event that you just noted is scheduled for wednesday, not thursday. former president trump said in a letter through his lawyer, alina habba, he needed to be with his family on wednesday and thursday in preparation for the funeral for melania's mother. the problem, of course, is not only does he have a campaign event scheduled, but they scheduled the campaign event after the court rejected the request. it really undermines their explanation. in terms of what we expect this week, this is going to be a much shorter trial. the reason is, most of the issues in dispute really have already been decided by a jury last may. it's not up for discussion whether donald trump sexually assaulted e. jean carroll.

it's not up for discussion whether donald trump defamed e. jean carroll and did so with malice. that, too, was decided by a jury. all that is left to decide is a measure of damages with respect to the former president's defamation of e. jean carroll at two different points in time. one was while he was president in 2019, and that's because donald trump insisted that he was immune from any civil damages because he was president. it took a longer time to litigate that issue than it did to just try him last may for statements he made after he was no longer president. of course, we know after that verdict, donald trump has continued to defame e. jean carroll, denying the sexual assault, calling her essentially a crazy person on multiple occasions, starting last may in a cnn town hall and continuing on through last week. he went on a social media cam rampage about her.

mika, this is about money and how much of it e. jean carroll is going to walk away with. both to compensate her for the loss of her reputation, but even perhaps more importantly, to former president trump, to punish former president trump for continuing to say those same things about her. >> there's so much going on. we have a judge ordering former president trump to pay "the new york times" and a couple of journalists' legal fees. also, fulton county d.a. fani willis over the weekend defended her choice to pick special prosecutor nathan wade to be part of the election interference case against donald trump and others. last week, one of former trump's co-defendants filed a motion alleging an improper relationship between the district attorney anwade. speaking in atlanta yesterday, willis never mentioned the allegations directly and questioned the racial motivation aimed at her in the attacks. >> i appointed three special counsel, as is my right to do,

paid them all the same hourly rate. they only attacked one. i hired one white woman, a good personal friend, a superstar, i'll tell you. i hired one white man, brilliant, my friend, and a great friend. i hired another superstar, a great friend and lawyer. lord, they'll be mad when i call them out on this nonsense. first thing they say, oh, she going to play the race card now. but isn't it them who is playing the race card when they only question one? >> the judge in the case said he would give d.a. willis a chance to respond to the allegations in a filing and would schedule a hearing on the matter. lisa, what is going on here? >> you know, mika, i'm a lot

less troubled by the allegation that there is an improper relationship between nathan wade and fannie wills than i am about something untoward in the file. there are a lot of exhibits that include invoices and total bills. fani willis might be right to say, all three of these special counsels bill the same hourly rate. only one took up more than 30% of the spending in each of two years that fulton county d.a.'s office spent on outside vendors, and that's nathan wade. only one seems to have lacked the requisite experience to be of particular aid to the district attorney. wade, as "the washington post" describes, was a municipal judge, meaning he primarily adjudicated things like traffic ticket disputes. he also has been in private practice for a long time, handling family law and contract

disputes. what mike roman's lawyer says in the motion that troubles me is wade doesn't have prosecutorial experience and doesn't have much rico experience. that leaves me scratching my head, why has nathan wade been paid over $600,000 in taxpayer money to assist in this prosecution? that's a lot more troubling to me than whether he and fani willis are having a consensual relationship that is existing, you know, after nathan wade filed for divorce. >> former litigator and legal analyst lisa rubin, thank you once again for your insight this morning. adrienne elrod, from a campaign point of view, is it fair game and smart strategy to talk about the kind of man donald trump is, to talk about the things that are proven, that he's been found liable for defamation? that he has been found liable for sexual abuse? known violations or even crimes. he says the documents were his. he admits to the crime and says

they're wrong. these are my documents. i took them, and you can see the boxes. i mean, the chaos that he has created, is that a smart play? >> look, i think, mika, it continues to -- he continues to deliver red meat to his base every time he does this. it is me against them. it is me against the system. the system is rigged against me, against you, so i'm the right person for you. it might work for the primary. it does not work for the general. it does not work to pull in independents. it doesn't work to pull in moderate republicans. you know, you just showed that poll from the "des moines register" that shows that a lot of nikki haley supporters in iowa would support joe biden. >> so interesting. >> right? a lot of that has to do with the fact that a lot of republican voters are turned off by donald trump. they would actually vote for joe biden, or independents are saying that who are caucusing in iowa. the bottom line is, it doesn't work for the general. i think that's the mistake he's making here. >> the real common sense -- you look at a lot of these cases and

they seem complicated. when you think about it as a regular person, you go, i think i know what happened here. anybody who doesn't think e. jean carroll is not telling the truth is crazy. >> the judge in the case called it rape. >> technical differences in new york state and things. >> right. >> i'm telling you, she's telling the truth. she's sticking to it. it's the women. it's been cassidy hutchinson, liz cheney, look at the list. all the women stood up against the guy. what he said in the "access hollywood" tape is true. >> right. >> he says, "i can do what i want. see what i did with e. jean carroll? i say what i do, and i do what i say." it's him. it is absolutely donald trump. >> we've learned to believe him. >> you know, he says what he means, and he does it. what concerns me, and i don't want us to get lost in this, you know, i just a couple years ago got my first grandchild. i look at how he will grow up in a world where you now have a former president running for president that compares his

amount of indictments with al capone. >> right. >> and that his character witness is sammy the bull. >> right. >> i mean, we're acting like this is normal. >> right. >> he is a man running for president, who was president, saying sammy the bull is my character witness. >> right. >> and i got more indictments than al capone. that ought to scare all of us. >> you know, if you saw the latest town hall he did on the other side of the republican debate, because he didn't show up for the republican debate, you would have thought he was a normal candidate. >> absolutely. >> correct. coming up, israel's prime minister marks 100 days since the hamas terrorist attacks with a vow to keep fighting in gaza. we'll have the latest in that war next on "morning joe."

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being in-home hospice for several months. the honeymooners aired episodes since 1955 and 1956. later dubbed the classic 59. they were hard to syndicate because of their shorter run time and eventually packaged as the lost episodes. randolph who largely retired from show business in the early 1960s to become a homemaker said she received no additional pay from the classic 39 syndications. but did collect royalties from the last programs. she was the last survivor of the cast of four that dominated saturday night television in the golden age of the 1950s. randolph was 99 years old. and nbc news has obtained new video from inside that

alaska airlines flight where a door plug blew off the plane midflight. the terrifying video, oh, my god -- look at that -- was recorded by a passenger who was in the row right behind the gaping hole that opened up as a result. no one was sitting in the row beside the hole, but some passengers are suing boeing over injuries they say they sustained during the incident. the faa has grounded all boeing 737 max 9s in further notice, causing united and alaska airlines to cancel over 100 flights per day. i could not do that. the agency also opened an investigation into boeing's oversight of production on max 9 door panels. the ntsb has opened a separate investigation, saying they will examine the plug and connected door frame to determine whether bolts were properly installed. or not installed at all.

how's that possible? we'll follow it. also, top house republicans are saying that a carefully brokered bipartisan senate border deal would be dead on arrival in the house. that's how house majority w.h.i.p. steve scalise described it during a conference call yesterday, according to jake sherman of punchbowl news. in that same call, sherman reports house speaker mike johnson said the border issue can't be solved in trump or another republican is back in the white house. like, chris, they're saying the quiet part out loud. that they don't actually want to have a solution now to a problem that they are saying is dire, because they don't want to help biden? >> yeah, that's what they want. maybe the hottest issue, i mean there are crime issues and the usual arguments but the border is a problem. >> then deal with it. there's a deal. >> idea of closing the border,

limiting the number of people coming in. figuring out what asylum really means and when it should be executed and not executed. stop the flow. and the flow's going to grow between now and election day that they're going to like to see. every day they see a picture of the border open, they got 0 vote. >> house republicans get nothing done. they don't want do do anything on this, and also the putrid vile way that they behaved in that oversight committee hearing last week. >> this guy, johnson -- just read liz cheney's book. >> yeah. >> he's behind the menace behind it, i know he sweet talks and all that stuff. he's the problem. he's the problem produce, he's going to break through the election try to get trump elected. >> chris matthews, adrienne elrod, thank you both for being on. we'll see a lot more of you in the days to come. jonathan lemire. let's turn to sports but a

different football. nbc sports soccer co-host of "men in blazers" our friend roger bennett. roger, pretty light schedule over the weekend. one to be sure, man city/new castle and the liverpool fans there's a fear of growing dread of inevitability, here comes city. >> it could be experience, jonathan, how you and other fans are learning, yes, the 2024 schedule kicked avenue with only half the teams playing. and half given a much-needed break. but half is all we need. a game long remembered in tapestries and epic greek poems from new castle, and in town, way north of the wall, proud passionate team taken over by the saudi arabia sovereign wealth. and they welcomed the defending champion manchester city going for the four-peat. a chance to promote city.

leashing a flick of picket pocketry. it's like a swedish luke skywalker launching a torpedo. and then astonishing finish. this moment, as surprising as what mike lendl on fox. rolled the ball with awe new ground new fringe. he looks like prince harry. he's belgium, and actually good at something. but what came with that, incredible, inevitable. 91st minute. unleashing them and to not casting, saudi arabia, 2, abu dhabi, 3, manchester will be in this game for generations second

now behind your liverpool, jon. still lead the league. >> debruin has returned so huge. feels like so much has gone wrong for city yet two points out. roger bennett. >> it's wonderful to be with you, meaningful martin luther king jr. day to you all. >> roger bennett, thank you so much. still ahead, a deep freeze across the hawkeye state could threaten turnout from the iowa caucuses. we'll have a report from des moines and hear from the top three gop candidates. that is just ahead on "morning joe." ♪♪ eal food. it's an idea whose time has come.

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i don't know what will happen now. we've got some difficult days ahead. but it doesn't really matter with me now. because i've been to the mountaintop. [ cheers and applause ] i don't mind -- like anybody, i would like to live a long life, longevity has its place. but i'm not concerned about that now. i just want to do god's will. and he's allowed me to go up to the mountain. i've looked over and i've seen the promised land.

i may not get there with you. but i want you to know tonight that we as a people will get to the promised land. so, on behalf of tonight, i'm not worried about anything! i'm not fearing anything. my eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the lord! >> dr. martin luther king jr. speaking in memphis on april 3rd, 1968. the night before he was assassinated. today is martin luther king jr. day. and we will discuss dr. king's ongoing legacy, especially as important as ever. because today is also the first nominating contest of the pivotal 2024 presidential campaign. turnout for the iowa caucuses could be an issue because it will be absolutely frigid

tonight, with temperatures well below zero across the state. voters must be at their caucus precincts by 7:00 central time. and weather will absolutely be a factor. with us, we have the president of national action network and host of msnbc's "politics nation" reverend al sharpton. founder of the conservative web the bulwark, charlie sykes is with us. and host of "way too early" and co-host of pretty cole, jonathan lemire and national news analyst john heilemann is with us this morning. joe. >> well, i just wanted to talk about that remarkable, that remarkable speech, in memphis, before we launch into politics. and all of the other issues of this day. on that day, the night before martin luther king was shot, he talks about going to the

mountaintop and seeing the other side. of course, using an extraordinary reference from the old testament, where god says to moses, "go up and see the land that i have prepared for the children of israel." talk about that night. talk about that legacy. talk about what it means for all of us today. >> well, i think that, clearly, it is a sermon he preached the night before he was killed. he was in memphis, tennessee, to support striking garbage workers who were led by union afsme. and he was coming as he was fighting for poor people to have better income, better life. and he was under threat. people don't realize, dr. king

in 1968 was very unpopular because he had come out against the war in vietnam. and other civil rights leaders had attacked him, but he stood up on moral grounds. 55% of blacks said he was negative in the last poll they did on him before he died. he stood his ground. he stood for nonviolence. he stood for change. and you referred to in the bible, moses, who god brought up in the bible narrative, that god brought up and look him over to see the promised land. but he didn't get there. and dr. king said he will not get there with us, as we as a people will get to the promised land. and here we are, all these years later, where we are now facing the same battles, affirmative action being just about gutted by the supreme court. we're fighting ddi. we have presidential candidates talk about the civil war should have been negotiated. so, i thought about it, as i

woke up this morning in washington, i'm here on martin luther king jr., and my daughter and only grandchild to breakfast, i thought about what dr. king would have thought about, negotiating the civil war and forgetting to mention slavery is part of why the civil war was. and i think that is challenging us of all parties and races to make this beloved community a reality. don't just sit around complaining, do something about it. >> and how incredible, mika, that is, as rev said, martin luther king, not popular in the final years of his life. he was seen as too radical by white america. he was seen as too passive and conservative with a small "c," by large segments of black america that he was despised by those who wanted to use violence for civil rights. what's remarkable, in 1965 --

1964 and 1965, we had a second american revolution. as jon meacham said so beautifully and so eloquently, for the first time in american history, the laws of this land actually allowed black americans civil rights and the voting rights that they'd been stripped from for so long. and even three years later, people were pushing martin luther king, one of the most transformative figures in american history, certainly, the 20th century, to go even further. and push for violence. he did not do it. and he changed the world in a way very few have. just a remarkable time, important to remember martin luther king and very important for americans, especially this year, when american democracy is on the line. and the rights of black

americans, of all americans, rest and hang in the balance. >> absolutely. and thank you both for those remarkable words and to fight still today is almost as if we have fallen back. and, rev, you're going to be having president biden on your radio show today. give us a preview. >> he's going to call in this afternoon at 3:00 on my syndicated radio show and talk about the legacy of dr. king as he see its and how the election fits in. he was our speaker last year as president at this same breakfast. and then i flew back to new york to do my radio show. i think it's interesting we're having the iowa caucus on martin luther king holiday. and how race became a part of it because of donald trump's statements and nikki haley without slavery.

dr. king would say two steps forward and three backward, and denying what dr. king and all of us are trying to do and keep moving forward. it's a marathon, not a sprint. >> that is for sure. >> john heilemann. let's go to john heilemann -- i hope he's outside -- no, he's not outside. we wanted that scene from broadcast news, aleutian islands. it is so cold there. and i just want to -- i was listening to jonathan lemire interviewing people about -- already talking about what was and what was not going to happen in south carolina. and i am reminded of what tom brokaw said when we were all sitting around the table in 2008, all of us talking about, saying our farewells to hillary clinton. because she was going to get stomped the next day.

>> right. >> and going to get stomped in new hampshire. and tom brokaw comes on and said, i strongly suggest we wait in the voters have spoken. and so, when i look at these polls and people are saying well this is just positive. this is how it's going to end up, it is a great poll. and ann seltzer, one of the greatest pollsters that we -- decades. that said, polls don't matter. what we gue doesn't matter. theoters go out and vote. and i'll tell you what, i don't -- i refuse to say, before the first republican voter has voted that this race is over. but take us through iowa. and what you've seen. >> well, first of all, joe, you're actually trying to kill me, i appreciate that. i sent you a screen shot of the weather right at the time the poll came out saturday night where the windchill was negative

44. negative 45 or something on saturday night. i told you guys it was going to be bad. and nobody here had any idea. you can't imagine also how much the weather here, because it killed an entire day of the campaign. everybody had to basically shut down on friday. how much it's a dominant thing from people who work on the campaigns, the candidates themselves, everyone who covers it. it's really been more the story of this weekend than anything that's actually happened on the campaign trail. joe, to your point about polling, anne seltzer would be the first person to agree we're not predicting anything here, just a snapshot in time. one thing i will say, the poll that came out on saturday night, the iowa poll, it's been very consistent with what the shape of this race has been over the course of the last nine months. that is where i sort of start here. it's a really weird iowa caucus. and it's weird in the sense that a lot of things that have characterized caucuses in the past have not happened. it's been a different flavor of

it. the machinations of it, the tenor of it. the lack of surprises. anyway, i kind of spent this weekend thinking about some of those topics. one, with the letter, and decided to bring you this piece. so let's roll it. >> reporter: three. three. negative 15 windchill. >> there's one thing i know for sure, i am not in south carolina anymore. >> i'm really impressed that so many people came out given the weather. most floridians don't come north in january. >> one other thing, it's nasty out there. >> in des moines woke up last friday morning it was clear that the weekend for this year's iowa caucuses might look different than usual. >> john, what's going on the ground three days out? >> there's a blizzard coming, a foot of snow in the next 24

hours. and the national weather service said life-threatening winter weather conditions in des moines. life-threatening or not as the arctic blast slammed, the roads quickly became impassible. instead of frantically crisscrossing the state, nikki haley, ron desantis and donald trump shut down appearances saturday. with trump one of two events by social media assured his iowa fans he'll be back. but his grasp of itinerary seem a tad tenuous. >> this is your former president, i'm leaving very shortly your beautiful state. i'll get there sometime around saturday night or something. >> reporter: the site of the republican field literally frozen in place was strange for sure but also a strangely apt end for a race that's been politically frozen for months. especially on the gop side iowa has a reputation long and hard

earned for volatility. and the kind of that when the smoke cleared in 2008, 2012, 2016, had these guys celebrating. >> tonight, i love iowa a whole lot. >> game on. >> god bless the great state of iowa. >> reporter: but this year, iowa hasn't felt much like iowa at all. there's been no volatility whatsoever. trump's been up by roughly 30 points since last summer. among those who know iowa republican politics the best, the possibility of a shock the world upset is basically close to zero. >> trump doesn't win here monday night. >> yeah, it looks almost impossible. and iowa surprises people a lot. >> reporter: yeah. >> i don't think we have that kind of surprise in us right now. >> reporter: that was the view even before the release on saturday of the final nbc news des moines register media iowa poll conducted by the revered

iowa pollster ann seltzer showing trump a 28-point lead. but the iowa poll also showed haley for the first time overtaking desantis. arguably, turning their fight for second place into caucus night's main event. >> in this race, there's been no punches thrown from the contenders after the guy at the top, so here we are. we know what's going to happen. the question, the real only question who is two and three. then who stays in the race marching forward to new hampshire. it's crazy. >> reporter: you've seen seltzer's poll. trump's 48, haley at 20. what's the story? >> she's the story. >> she comes in second. >> it's pretty clear she's the one who is going to earn the right to take on trump one-on-one. there's no way you win when it's trump versus the field. >> reporter: ann seltzer tells me that haley's leap into second place struck her as a big deal,

too, at first. but then argued looking deeply at numbers. >> a four-point scale, extreme with enthusiastic, extremely enthusiastic, mildly enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic. the supporters are on the bottom of the scale. they choose her agency the first choice. they're only mildly or enthusiastic. i've never seen that. >> reporter: one person to believe she does is trump. in recent days attacks on haley, the poll numbers have risen. and couches trump in vaguet of realities. >> i think president trump was the right president at the right time. i agree with a lot of his policies, but rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him and we can't be a country in disarray and have a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos. >> reporter: haley knows many

who see trump as a mess desperately want her to put caution aside and go after him. in independent noelia, she addressed those concerns head-on. >> for those who want me to hit trump more, i'm just not going to do it. i do think politics is personal enough. >> reporter: but haley may need to change her tune fast if she wakes up tuesday morning in a one-on-one with trump and personal enough is likely to be in the same galaxy as hers. so, guys, i think, you know, to me, a couple of the takeaways, i'll toss back to you guys to talk about it, one of them is this interesting question. if we end up in a situation where haley has a big night tonight, iowa will -- and she ends up in it with trump, that's where they've said it all along, 2016, 20, and now 2024, you can't beat trump in a spread-out field. you could end up, after tonight, with really the one-on-one

dynamic that people have said the only way for trump to ever be taken down. in that case, iowa will have narrowed the field if it does that and have done its job. other thing to ann seltzer's point, the lack of enthusiasm for haley she continues to hold out the possibility as a lot of people do here, in a low turnout scenario, bad weather and everything else, ron desantis may end up surprising everybody and actually finish second in the end. >> boy, that really is troubling. if you're nikki haley. and you look at this poll, you're right, the least inspired people, the least motivated people are your supporters. maybe at the end of the day, they all come out. maybe it's because they're more anti-trump than pro-nikki haley. but, yeah, remarkable report. thank you so much. stay with us, john. i do want to go to charlie sykes. charlie, we've been looking at a race between donald trump and ron desantis now for well over a

year. and that's been how this republican race has been framed. does that all change tonight if you have donald trump in the mid-40s. nikki haley in the mid-20s and ron desantis down in the teens somewhere? is that the end for desantis? and does this become a one-on-one race as nikki haley moves towards new hampshire and may win? >> well, if ron desantis has a reality check, he's spent all of his resources on iowa. and then, you know, comes in third, where does he have to go? he has no presence really in new hampshire. he's going to get smoked in south carolina. so, yeah, i think this is the end of the road for ron desantis whether or not he recognizes it or not. so, yes, it does become one-on-one. but i have to say, you know, you have to pull back, though, the reality check. looking at the republican party. looking at the polls. looking at the map. over the weekend, marco rubio and mike lee were feeding the

idea that people grow in political office and endorsing donald trump. the republican party is in the process not just of consolidating but in completely, once again, surrendering to donald trump. so, we're going to play this out. and pretend maybe that there's a glimmer of hope that republicans will wake up some time in march or april and say, you know what, maybe we ought to move on from donald trump. but right now, there's no indication that's going to happen. >> jonathan lemire it does require, does it not, for donald trump to be kept in the mid-40s. because we've been hearing from his campaign and others they expect him to break 50. and a lot of people expecting him to have an absolute blowout. nikki haley can keep this, you know, again, let's say, mid-40s to haley in the mid-20s. she's going to have to -- i think, overachieve here. then if she goes to new hampshire a state many people

believe she can win, that that's really -- i mean, that's her inside straight. after winning there. she's got a month before south carolina. and, oh, my god, as -- you know, i think it was mcmillan who said a week in politics is a lifetime. a month, my god, that is -- that is enough for even donald trump to get in his own way. >> that's certainly true, joe. and i do think we've seen a little bit of anxiety from trump folks in the last few days because they were so boldly predicting, confidently predicting this huge blowout. and polls suggest he's going to win by a sizable margin. but maybe not by the number they have put out there, as you say, over 50%. there's a couple reasons for that. one will be, of course, the weather, as heilemann noted, i'm sorry he didn't have like an andy reid frozen mustache look this morning from this brutal winter weather, there are concerns that people are going to stay home tonight because

it's going to be dangerous to be outside. legitimate reasons to stay home tonight. secondly, we see trump for the first time, all campaign, the last 24, 36 hours, with an attack against vivek ramaswamy of all people. vivek has been supportive of trump throughout his campaign but the trump people have really turned on him in recent days. vivek ramaswamy is sticking in 7 or 8 or 9%. people who are for him are really for him. there's a lot of enthusiasm there. and trying to bang it down to maybe get trump voters to switch to him. but desantis people do think they have the best ground game out what that really means for a campaign that seems to be half dead, we'll see. but there are some who think he'll pull out a better number than expected because his people are organized to get people to caucus sites despite the bad weather. yes, all eyes on nikki haley, mika. if haley can come in and win new

hampshire, draws the chris christie votes, if they can win new hampshire then we have that biari choice in the republican party. coming up, secretary of state antony blinken will be in davos this week along with leaders of ukraine and israel. nbc's keir simmons is there and brings us a preview of this year's world economic forum. that's straight ahead on "morning joe." ."

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♪♪ ♪♪ wars in the world stage that your husband is managing there's the thread of another trump presidency which we just talked about. he's a man indicted four times. he's doubling down on conspiracy theories, flouting the rule of law. many would say everything is on the line. i think you just said that. this is a massive amount of

physical and emotional stress that would be on any person. your husband is 81. at the end of the second term, he'd be 86. as his life partner of 46 years, is there a part of you that is worried about his age and health? can he do it? >> he can do it. and i see joe every day. i see him out, you know, traveling around this country. i see this vigor. i see his energy. i see his passion. every single day. >> so, to those who say i can't vote for joe biden, he's too old. what do you say? >> i say his age is an asset. >> he's wise? >> yes, he's wise. he has wisdom. he has experience. he knows every leader on the world stage. he's lived history. he knows history. he's thoughtful in his decisions, he is the right man, or the right person, for the job at this motel in history.

>> first lady dr. jill biden in my exclusive interview last week on the question of president biden's age. joining us now columnist and associate editor for "the washington post" david ignatius. david, you wrote the column that joe biden, president biden should not run again in 2024. when you look at how he's managing the world stage and you hear dr. biden's argument that he knows everybody, he's been there, done that, and any response, any update to your point of view? >> as i wrote it at the time in september, so many of president biden's policies i think are good. i think he's done a very good job of handling this extraordinarily difficult war in gaza. i think he's worked well with the secretary of state antony blinken and god bless him. the american public does seem to be concerned about his age. that's not you or me saying it. it's a feeling that's out there

in the public, the polls consistently show that. and the best thing we can do is demonstrate that he's a strong leader and has a strong team. and is the best not simply to beat trump but to lead the world in a very difficult period. i can't fault the leadership he's givingcrises. but i haven't lost my concern, neither has the public. coming up, it's decision day in iowa. we'll go live to des moines as voters pick their candidate tonight for president. nbc's ali vitali joins the conversation straight ahead on "morning joe." hey you, with the small business... ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy.

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well, i am going to do a little rapid fire. i have -- danielle -- >> uh-oh. >> don't think, just blurt. >> okay. >> what's the one word that comes to mind when i say ageing? >> grace. >> campaigning? >> tough. >> okay. >> over 50? >> success, fabulous. >> your favorite emoji? >> oh, my gosh. the turquoise heart. >> turquoise heart? >> yeah. >> i don't have that one on my phone. [ laughter ] what does that mean? >> it's like the beach. it's calm. >> oh, i like that. >> color of the sea. >> do i type out turquoise heart? [ laughter ] comfort food. >> oh, french fries. >> yeah.

>> yeah. >> retirement. >> hmm, whenever. >> early bird or night owl? >> early bird for sure. >> your grandkids call you? >> nana. >> what is your most strongly held belief? >> that acts of kindness really matter. >> well, this is kind of a bad term, define fexing -- >> oh, fexting, it's texting with an "f." >> yeah. i actually had this. >> yeah. so when you're in the car and you're texting and you're fighting with your husband and there are ten secret service agents in the car with you. you can't say you're a -- whatever. so like you're texting -- you're a whatever! you know. it's fighting over text because you can't verbalize it. [ laughter ] >> fexting.

>> fexting. >> fighting over text. i love it. i think i might have done that a time or two in my life. >> a time or two. >> what's your morning coffee order? >> black. >> okay. >> it's easy. i've learned that during the campaign. >> extra hot, extra -- >> oh, goodness. >> joe, willie or mika? >> oh, mika, right. >> okay, no -- part of my conversation with first lady dr. jill biden last week at the white house. coming up a breakdown of where things stand in iowa, as the caucus kicks off just hours from now, steve kornacki is at the big board and joins us live on "morning joe" when we come right back.

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i think he's having a midlife crisis i'm not.ith 30 grams of protein. you got us t-mobile home internet lite. after a week of streaming they knocked us down... ...to dial up speeds. like from the 90s. great times. all i can do say is that my life is pre-- i like watching the puddles gather rain. -hey, your mom and i procreated to that song. oh, ew! i think you've said enough. why don't we just switch to xfinity like everyone else? then you would know what year it was. i know what year it is.

one time, second and nine for jared goff. goff's going to throw. and thrown for the first down! all the lions have to do is take care of the ball here and they will win a playoff game. goff to a knee. and to a very important place for him. >> yeah, you see a few tears in there for those folks. one more knee, and business is done. and detroit, for the first time in 32 years, your lions have won a playoff game. how about it. >> yeah, baby. oh, yeah. a game-sealing first down at the 2:00 mark, ran out the clock. the lions victory, breaking a

losing streak, the longest in history. just the second playoff victory since winning the 1957 nfl title. it means so much more for the people of detroit. it means so much more for this lions team. they started 0-6 last year. and i will tell you what, even with running six, you could tell they were a great team. but what a game, what a game for jared goff. talk about redemption. it's such a happy time. and from espn pablo, two extraordinary games, one, the dallas cowboys, do what the dallas cowboys always do, they collapse. it's like being an atlanta braves fan and watching them in the division 12 years in a row and wondering whether they won 99 or 105 games, they're going to lose. and we'll get to dallas in a second. but you talk about a problem

franchise. but let's talk about detroit. man. what a great story. what an exciting story. i remember last year, going on twitter telling lions fans, you guys, maybe a bad record right now, but you guys are an extraordinary team. now, this is us, we're the lions, we'll never be good. man, they deserve this. >> joe, 32 years, man. >> whoa! >> people need to appreciate what are this was. because this is detroit, a great american city, finally -- finally surviving past the first scene in the horror movie, where they live, right? >> yeah. >> this has not happened in three decades. so this team and this city, this fan base that has just been crying out for help. the poetry of this game is not merely that they finally broke through and they did it. now they can say, wow, we feel

like we can hold our heads high again, it's because they did it with jared goff against the los angeles rams. if people don't appreciate what jared goff was feeling. it was a bit of closure. psychotherapy closure, for him to beat the team that dumped him, remember. >> yes. >> rams, getting rid of jared goff as derived as mostly a puppet for head coach sean mcvay. he got to prove, i don't know, it's like going to your high school reunion and saying look at me now, look at what i can do. and jared goff led them to a win that is historic in the literally and figurative sense, emotional and real. it's just one of the greatest feel-good games that we've seen literally in 30 years. >> well, it is. i'm so glad you said that because this is much more than just a football team winning a game. and first time in 32 years. we hear that a lot.

this is just a great team. they were on "hard knocks." you saw dan campbell at the beginning of last season. >> yeah. >> you saw the players that you love. jack and i fell in love with st. brown. what a great guy. watching his dad taking him to the weight room, pushing him. hometown boy aidan hutchinson, he's there. you talked about jared goff. man, if this isn't the feel-good team of the year, i don't know what is. let's go ahead, though, and turn the page, to the clunker. >> yes. >> holy cow, jerry jones. what's he going to kick this morning, man? >> everything. >> what an absolute total collapse in dallas. and you can kind of see it coming because this happens in dallas every year. >> well, the definition of insanity, joe is what, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different

result. so these are the dallas cowboys who are the bizarre lions in all of these ways this weekend because their story for so long has been they're just good enough to get to the postseason and be ritualistically humiliated. this is what we saw. it's amazing when you have a team, america's team, no less, that everybody can make fun of for the same reason every time. and there is that lying on jerry jones yard and stomping on it with two feet. this is the worst loss, i would say, the worst loss in cowboys history which is saying quite a bit. >> yeah. >> joe, again, to recap the season, 16 straight wins at home, dak prescott invincible, invincible playing at home. an amazing defense. and jordan love, the guy who replaced aaron rodgers and everyone said are you really going to cut tie with a two of had time mvp aaron rodgers, really, you're going to roll the

dice with this rookie out of utah state. yes, they rolled the dice. yes, this decision had been vindicated. it's just funny when you get jerry jones and aaron rodgers -- >> look at this, look at this, that patch play right there. that's a basic madden pass. >> yeah. >> nobody was within 20 feet -- 20 yards -- >> where anybody's ever been. >> and you talk about dallas' great defense, everybody does. but the bills ran over them. the packers ran through them, over them. and then on pass plays. i mean, how many times can jordan love be throwing off his back foot? >> that's right, the back foot fadeaway, man. yes. >> and yet, the players he threw to, always open. >> that's right. that's right. it's crazy. >> favre. >> rodgers, jordan love.

this is what they're saying in green bay. and no one, no franchise has done it like this, the hardest thing in the nfl is quarterback. they've gotten three of them and they've sold high every time. it's a ridiculously impressive run that they're on right now. coming up now, producing hit movies, the next guest is buding support for president biden. jeffrey catsenberg, a campaign co-chair joining the conversation, straight ahead on "morning joe." ♪♪ he hits his mark —center stage—and is crushed by a baby grand piano. you're replacing me? customize and save with liberty bibberty. he doesn't even have a mustache. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

potentially another four years in the white ñiçóhouse. does anything give you pauseñi r the health and well-being of both of you, the division of this country, the cruelty of your çwi family? does anything make you think, ñayrñ that'

through yet another campaign. i think our frees and democracy are what's on the line. so americans have a choice. they can have strong, steady leadership, someone fighting for democracy, or they can choose chaos and division. >> that's first lady jill biden telling mika last week in the white house why she thinks a second term for her husband is soñi vital forñi america and american democracy. asñi republicans face off in io tonight, the biden/harris campaign is announcing añi masse cash haul in its latest filing. it's record breaking for democrats. it raised $97 million in the fourth quarter with a total of $117 it is thehand highest total amo amassed by any democraticñi candidate to this point in an election cycle. let's bring in one of the cochairs for the biden campaign,

oscar nominated and producer jeffrey katzenberg. he for some reason has chosen to be freezing in iowa. i will say what i really want to talk about here is the fact that i've heard a lot of people around the white house, in politics and in hollywood talking about your division almost likeñi a lightning bolt decision to put things to the side and to focusñi on what you consider to be a battle for the heartñr and soul notñi only ofñ american ñipolitics, but for democracy. talk about your division to put this front and center in your life. >> thank you, joe. thanksçó for having me. çó downtown des moines, where it's a toasty minus ten degreesñi headed to a frigid minus 40. i don't know whether you've ever experienced that before.

not sure you need to,ñi but tru me, it's special. i think this isñi an existentia moment for us, for our country. the choice could not be clearer. i have known president biden for 40 years. i think he is one of the most remarkable andçó decent and passionate and empathetic peopli i have ever met. i believe in him and i believe in the cause here, which is we are here not just to reelect a great president, but to defend democracy. >> talk aboutñrñr age as a supe

power. people have said, it's good that he was p vice president, he has grown into a position where his age joe biden says is a super power. while maga extremists are trying to paint him as too old, the fact isñi he's actually on top his game. you talk about foreign policy. he's light yearsñr ahead of jus about anybody in washington, d.c. >>ñi i couldn't agree with you more. his knowledge andñi his experiee hasñi served this country incredibly well, particularly when you see the world affairs ofçóñi the last month,ñi last y ofçóñi the last month,ñi last y even.qáher it is dealing withek middle east, dealing with ukraine, bringing nato together,

standing strong for us in our dealings with china. these come from decades of experience, incredible relationships he has built, credibility he has built with world leaders. and let's not forget in his first two years he has gotten more accomplished than any other president in modern ñitimes. and so to me this ãa privilege to be here working in support or himçó and his campaignñrñiñiçó. >>ñrñr we just wentñr throughñ there have been someçó in your party who have worried about thr enthusiasm in theñr base for th

president. should these numbersçó alleviat some of these concerns? is this showing enthusiasm for joe biden? >> the answer is 100%. it's fascinating to me, because when youñi think to the pundits andñr theñi polls and thenñi yo see theñi resu fundraising, it could not be

so that is a level of enthusiasm and commitment and grassroots support, which was essential in his 2020 campaign which i just don't think is being reflected in the beltway ñrñrñrgossip. >> we always here that bernie sanders is great with small donors. you're saying ragsá now that small donors are actually the 4 record-setting haul. >> i'm saying quiteñrñi clearly this momentñi inñr thisñiçó tim fundraising side, joe biden is kicking butt. you could not ask for a better r outcome. you couldn't ask forñi mo+mñi

momentum.ñr to the other thing that you raised, which is sort of the chatter that goes on,ñr remembe i come from hollywood. in the movie makingñi world,ñr everybody has an opinion. everybody knows better than you. everybody second guesses. so i take all of that honestly with a grainçó of salt. so maybe what that does, which i see the positive in it is it creates urgency. i think that urgencyçó is a ver effective and important tool that actually works for our benefit. >> you çóknow,ñi speaking of hollywood, you know it takes

it really was and i think for his supporters. he's continued it. he'll do it again today in philadelphia. >> one of the pivotal moments in the campaign when people look back on that valley forge speech. jeffrey katzenberg, thank you so much. >> thanks for having me. >> let's bring in steve kornacki at the big board. steve, talk about the numbers. what are you seeing? >> quite a few things.

obviously this overall is where our final nbc news des moines register poll lands. trump is way ahead, 48%. "the des moines register" has been doing this poll for decades. this is the highest vote share somebody has come into the caucuses with off a final des moines register poll. the previous record was george w. bush in 2000. this margin trip has over nikki haley, 28 points, also the most in a final register pre-gop caucus poll. the suspense is more team nikki haley and ron desantis. haley has jumped over desantis to get the lead. let's look at where trump's lead

comes from. evangelicals. in 2016, two out of every three caucus votes in iowa were from evangelical christians. in 2016 donald trump lost the evangelicals by double digits to ted cruz. what a difference four years makes. ron desantis has run hard after the evangelical vote. yet, he finds himself in our poll nearly 30 points behind trump among evangelicals. if desantis is going to have a good night, that number is going to have to be a lot higher and come down for donald trump. haley in second place, independent voters are powering her. they make up about 20% of the gop caucus electorate. independents are a big part of

nikki haley's appeal here. the problemhaley has though, the last time we checked this she was at 60% favorable and 30% unfavorable. her numbers have dramatically moved in the wrong direction. haley, we talk about that support she has from independents and a little bit from democrats. 77% of haley's supporters in iowa say they have a negative view of donald trump. she really is coalescing the independents to the extent there is some independent and anti-trump forces. chris christie, mike pence, candidates who get identified with anti-trump forces, with anti-trump voters, pro-trump

republican voters tend to turn on them. seeing that spike in nikki haley's unfavorable, i wonder if she's getting that support from voters who don't like donald trump. tonight's record low temperatures and windchills, will it slow turnout or cause any kind of surprise here? we ask in the poll, are you extremely or very excited about the candidate you're supporting? 88% of trump supporters put themselves in that category, 62% for desantis, just 39% for haley. this where haley's second-place lead over desantis could be

tenuous. could that give him a shot? >> steve, as the results come in tonight, what are some certain areas you might be looking for? some telltale regions that could give us clues where the night might be heading and would be showing us if the bad weather is playing a role? >> in 2016, remember donald trump losing, ted cruz winning the state. marco rubio ran surprisingly well. for trump and for ron desantis, there are a lot of counties like this, but this is the most significant. it's sioux county in northwest iowa. this is a deeply, deeply religious county.

in 2016 there was skepticism for trump among evangelicals. there are 99 counties in iowa. this, sioux county, heavily religious, trump got 11% of the vote here in 2016. is it enough for trump to be winning in sioux county tonight? if desantis is going to have any chance at any kind of a surprise tonight, this is the kind of county where he's got to perform very strong. again, he's gone so hard after evangelical voters. we have the evangelical leader endorsing him. the pink color here, these are

the counties that went for marco rubio in 2016. these are high population counties. polk county, where des moines is. dallas county, just to the west of it, big suburban county. trump not doing well there. rubio's coalition in 2016 in a lot of ways resembles nikki haley's right now, college degrees, higher income, more independent. rubio was able to take that and win these five counties and come close statewide. how is nikki haley doing? is she winning it? how is she doing in polk county? how about johnson county? this is the most democratic county in the state. it's where the university of iowa is.

again, trump didn't do well here. this was a gold mine for marco rubio in 2016. when you get to small, rural areas where you don't have a lot of college degrees, where you have lower incomes, she's been struggling in the polls. that is what cost marco rubio a chance to win the caucuses in 2016. let's go near the missouri border here. look at this. marco rubio didn't even register here in 2016. it was ben carson in all of these counties. these small, rural counties, there's a lot of them in southern iowa. rubio got buried there in 2016. if nikki haley is going to have a surprising good night, she needs to show signs of strength

in places like southern iowa here. that would get her to second and would show she's expanding on the base we're seeing in polls. >> boy, those maps show it so clearly. of course, steve, when you go to the general election, it's even more dramatic. those trump maga supporters are in rural america. nbc's steve kornacki, thank you so much. it's going to be a fascinaing night. let's go to des moines to ali vitali. you talked to nikki haley over the weekend. what did she tell you? >> reporter: we covered a range of topics. i think steve is right when he says we should look to the

counties that went well for marco rubio in 2016, because that's where haley's campaign is looking to run up the margins. if we see it going well for haley, we are looking at those stories that make a donut around des moines and around any of the other population centers. i can tell you where we've been on the east and west sides of the state, hanging around places like iowa city and davenport, haley's campaign trying to run up the margins in those areas. it's clear nikki haley's goals here have nothing to do with donald trump. she feels she needs to underscore what she's been saying all along, which is which is a one-on-one race between haley and trump. it's an extra challenge and a

tacit omission that he does not have a path forward in a state like new hampshire. haley was not holding back in her criticism of him for that move. but she had more to say in regards to donald trump and january 6th. let me play you that. >> he's only played in iowa. he's invisible in new hampshire and south carolina. he's in fourth and fifth place in both of those. i welcome him to south carolina, but we're headed to new hampshire. >> reporter: on the debate stage, you said trump will have to answer for january 6th. what did you mean by that? >> i think he's got court cases to deal with. he's going to have to answer for it in his own time. it was a terrible day. i hope we never relive that again. i'll let him answer for that himself. >> reporter: do you think he

should have to answer for it? >> i'm not a lawyer. he has multiple cases. some are political, some are not political. i'm glad i don't have to deal with that. >> reporter: i think it's important to note when we say attacks on trump, it's with an asterisk on it. they would like to pull in trump supporters, but democrats and independents make up a huge part of the coalition she's trying to build not just here in iowa, but especially in new hampshire. i asked her also during that is that the way you win the republican nomination, especially in the era of trump, by pulling in independents and democrats? haley said electability is key and they should want to make the tent as big as possible.

i don't see how you become the republican nominee with republicans behind you not winning the majority of republicans. haley has to prove she can win a state anywhere. but if we zoom out, this is trump's nomination to lose. >> thank you so much. let's bring in white house correspondent for politico eugene daniels and historian jon meacham. what is the white house thinking about tonight's iowa caucuses? >> both the white house and the campaign, they see it has trump's to lose.

but they will caveat that just in case there are some surprises, saying that the entire republican party has this cancer of magaism, that donald trump has completely changed the party. if it is nikki haley or desantis at the end of the day, they will still be in a good place to take those folks on. when you look at the polls and talk to folks, trump and joe biden's matchup gives joe biden the best chance and the best argument about democracy and freedom, which is at the heart of his reelection campaign. tonight what they're watching for is, is nikki haley going to come in second? if so, what does that look like in new hampshire and south carolina?

they have to think about how much they're going to attack donald trump. six months ago there wasn't so much contrasting with donald trump specifically. they were trying to make sure they didn't get too far ahead of themselves and making clear the voting is still happening. >> jon meacham, tonight is the first of many nights that the republican party will define who they are and how far they've moved away from lincoln and reagan's party. we don't know yet what tonight is going to look like. we talk about the soul of america. the soul of this republican party is at stake. >> i'd say even they've moved so far away from the party of mitt

romney or john mccain or george w. bush. it's been a significant shift. this is a fascinating day, because iowa has played an important role in american politics since 1976. without iowa, jimmy carter would not have been president. without iowa in 1980, we would not have had either bush as president. it put him on the ticket and set up an entire era. so what do both those stories have in common? voters matter. and will folks in iowa and new hampshire or south carolina really realize the enormous

weight that's on them. the potential reelection of donald trump could be fatal to the american experiment and democracy. it might not be. but do you really want to run that risk at all? i would argue what's on the ballot here is our capacity as a country to treat politics as an arena of disagreement and problem solving as opposed to an arena of absolute warfare every day. that's on the ballot. >> and by warfare every day, we're looking at a man who has said he would execute generals if they were not sufficiently loyal. he would ban networks if they were not sufficiently loyal. he would terminate the constitution if that's what it took to stay in office.

he would like retirees' retirement accounts to be destroyed because he wants the economy to be wrecked this year because he wants to be reelected. he wants joe biden to be the next herbert hoover. i can't remember a time when a party was so gripped by an irrational fever they continue to follow a leader who is responsible for the party losing in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. and yet the madness, the

madness -- and this is what many party members in my old party think, that donald trump has the best chance of winning the election this fall. you talk to anybody in the white house, that's not what they think. that's not what democrats think. they think donald trump is the weakest republican out there. >> yeah. i think that's right. historically, the republicans could very well be the wigs, the 19th century party that fell apart not least because they could not find a coherent answer to the central question of the age. that's why parties implode and change fundamentally. i think it was slavery in the 19th century, civil rights and the liberation movements of the mid 20th century which changed the democratic party and the republican party so fundamentally. it's arguable that what is at

the heart of this reset of american politics is the failure of the republican party in this case to have a coherent response that appeals to the majority of americans to the implications of globalization. if you think about it, that's at the heart of all this. the country looks less like a country dominated by people who look like me and you. so in many ways this is a reaction to that, not entirely, but it's a part of it. so the failure to have a coherent response to the shrinking of the world -- the pace of change is so remarkable. somebody the other day was talking about covering bush and kerry. i'm teaching students who were

born that year. it's moving pretty fast. the world is shifting. a lot of people are very uncomfortable. i would argue this is a lot like a hundred years ago almost exactly in the 1920s when radio was coming along. the 1920 census was the first time more americans lived in cities than on farms. you had anti-immigrant sentiment. you had a trial in tennessee because the state legislature wanted to get into curriculum matters and ban the teaching of evolution, which in many ways showed that darwin might have been wrong. you have a lot of cultural things unfolding and so do we. that's why the voters matter so much. >> so do we. populism is a great starter, not a really good finisher. here we have all these issues. you look at, for instance, moms

for freedom, the books, you know, trying to decide what books can be in libraries and what books librarians can decide to let students read. you have republicans bragging to me about how they send out 20 mailers in the 2020 election about trans athletes. all of these issues they have focused on, guns, abortion, all of these red hot social issues that used to work for republicans may fuel them in these early primary states but undermine their prospects in general elections when voters actually decide who's going to be in office and who's going to go home. >> what jon just said about the shrinking for some folks in america is an expansion for

others. when you talk to people that are more likely to vote for democrats, black, brown people, younger people, people that are queer in some way, they will tell you this is the first time in their entire lives that they feel like they belong in this country and they can walk down the street and hold hands. that is happening at the same time. when you talk about the republican party and iowa, evangelicals are having to figure out how to look past their own values to vote for someone. that is not something that voters typically like to do. but donald trump has been able to over the years convince

voters that he is the only person that can stop that expansion of america. when you talk to voters in iowa, and around the country, frankly, they talk about wanting to go back to the '50s. i don't know about y'all, but i'm not looking to go back to the '50s. that is the way he has tried to convince voters that when things were good for you, that's when things were good for the country. there were millions of people who were left out of this conversation and left out purposely of that conversation at that time. so this push and pull of the culture of america is key to understanding politics now. it always confuses me when you talk to reporters or people in politics who don't think about

race and these red hot issues, abortion, cultural issues, because it is core to understanding politics and why voters feel the way they do now. >> we have to go to break. jon, if you could just quickly for us -- i know you can't. but if you could very quickly on martin luther king, jr. day, can you talk once again about the extraordinary historic dominos that fell in 1963 with the march on washington, 1964 with the civil rights act, 1965 with the voting rights act, and talk about how that was the first time that america really got to a point where the promises of

the declaration of independence, the promises of the constitution of the united states, the promises of the emancipation proclamation and, yes, the 14th amendment, those promises actually took legislative form. >> sure. it absolutely connects to what we're talking about. there's a big debate in 1619. i would argue that the america in which we live was founded in 1965 as the culmination of the civil rights act, the voting rights act, the immigration act in many ways created the country we live in.

taylor branch, the great biographer of king, referred to king rightly, i believe, as a second founding father, as a modern founding father of a country. king grounded his claims for the country not on something radical and un-american, but on something radical and very american, which was to actually realize the meaning of the words that folks who look like you and me decided to put at the center of the american experiment, that all were created equal. the claim was live up to what you say. that's king's continuing legacy. he was a much more radical figure toward the end of his life. we live in a better country because that man gave his life for the rest of us. >> and how extraordinary that

martin luther king, jr. used the words of a slave holder, thomas jefferson, and the declaration of independence to connect the constitution to the declaration of independence to the freeing of black men and women. and he did it again in 1963. jon meacham, thank you so much. eugene, stay with us. today in davos, switzerland is pitching its peace plan. let's go live to keir simmons. we come at a time where right now you have the ukrainian leader pitching a peace plan at the time where putin is quietly telling people around him he too would not mind moving toward

peace. while he's not announcing it publicly, he too is ready for this war of attrition to come to an end. >> reporter: i think president putin is ready to talk. i think the issue is he's not ready to compromise. it's cold here in davos, joe. we're in a u.s. presidential election year. it is focusing minds here and steering some of the geopolitical conversations, except apparently for the ukrainians. there is a congressional delegation here, at least some of whom come with a message to ukraine, you will get the money, but we also need to talk about how we get to the end of this. that is not a message the ukrainians want to hear.

there was a meeting on sunday of 80 national security advisors from around the world. the swiss were hosting that and trying to say we need to talk and probably need to talk to the russians. that isn't something ukrainians wanted to hear. at the end of the day, we heard from a group of ukrainian leaders, not president zelenskyy, who will speak tomorrow here in davos. this is how the ukrainian presidential office describes what he sees as the current position. >> you know, the partners already know us. they know that president zelenskyy and the people who have participated in negotiations know our positions, respect our positions. believe me, i participated

practically in all meetings in the high level, including the leaders. i never listened that somebody from our partners, our friends to discuss any compromise, which they exactly know that's not acceptable for us, including the questions of crimea. >> reporter: i do think, though, that many people think it's coming to crunch time. what you just heard is the message you'll hear from president zelenskyy tomorrow,but there are many people talking about how you move things forward. it's a war. we don't know how it will play out on the ground. >> obviously the russian invasion of ukraine has dominated davos for a couple of years now. talk to us about how the world's other hot war, the one right now in gaza, how is that playing there? what are the conversations like there about the present and

future of that conflict? >> reporter: i think it has people deeply worried because it is so destabilizing to a stable world and a stable economy. the situation in the red sea for example and the impact that might have on one aspect that is fascinating, the saudis are waiting to see if they can get through this very difficult period and get back to what they wanted, which was some kind of a partnership deal with the israelis and some kind of strategic deal with the u.s. now, we don't know how this is going to go, but i wouldn't dismiss the idea that some of

the major players in the region are still hoping despite everything that some kind of stability can be restored. ultimately right now, though, it is up to the israelis right now. >> thank you so much. coming up, we're going to be going to iowa as republicans prepare to face the frigid weather and gather to vote. to fd weather and gather to vote plus, a look at how college educated republicans are learning to love donald trump again. learning to love donald trump again.

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people look at donald trump and they think what? >> you look at the average person. it seems like he's the guy that's already done it for four years. >> is this your participation? >> at the end of the day -- [indiscernible] >> that was jacob soboroff speaking with an iowa plow operator, who could be critical to tonight's caucuses, because residents there are still digging out of a blizzard over the weekend. jacob soboroff is in iowa. when we hear caucus super site,

i sort of shudder because i'm reminds of the chaos of 2020. are we going to avoid that chaos? it's been two elections now where things just didn't work right. do they think they've got the buzz out of it? >> reporter: i certainly hope so, joe. i think they hope so too here in the county where basically everyone in this county is going to come to the high school tonight to participate in this super caucus event. i want to walk you through the process a little bit. you're going to see the whole thing play out tonight on msnbc. as many as a thousand people are going to show up in this auditorium tonight and hear speeches from the campaigns up on that stage. once they hear the speeches, they're going to break out into

groups. the high school is an incredible building. it dates back to 1923. they just celebrated their 100-year anniversary. it's a multilevel school. it's going to get complicated. they're going to come down the stairs. once they walk out of that auditorium and they're going to come here to the classroom level. when they say a super caucus location, it means there are multiple precincts here inside the high school. i think the exact number is 22. from upstairs, they find their way down to the precinct location. this is classroom 120. you're going to find your ballot and put it in the ballot box here. once you do that, you're going to come out here and head to where ultimately the votes are

counted. the reason it's particularly important to be here is that in 2016, donald trump got about 36% of the vote here in the county. they're saying that potentially if polls are right that that number could be far higher, maybe up to 50%. if it's lower, that might be also interesting or concerning to the trump campaign. they're all going to come here with all the vote totals. they're going to come down these stairs into the cafeteria. there's going to be a massive white board where they're going to tabulate all of the votes. the results of the county are going to be announced here. i want you to see how complicated the process here and how much room for error it is. you show up between the hours of

7:00 and 9:00. if you don't get here, you don't get to participate. we'll just have to wait and see what happens. >> jacob soboroff, thank you. thank you so much. with us now in des moines is political correspondent for the "new york times" michael c. bender. his latest piece "how college educated republicans learn to love trump again." thank you so much for being with us. i'm amused, i guess, in a way, deeply disturbed in another way, though. so many of these people will bitch and moan about how horrible the economy is and talk about how joe biden is a socialist. then they i'm get out of their maserati and go into their golf club and look at their stocks where they're seeing record high profits for them and their

businesses. but somehow, some way they have found a way back to donald trump. talk about it. >> reporter: first, i want to say did anyone else have the urge to shove jacob in one of those high school lockers? >> that was just you. >> it's kind of hard to remember less than a year ago trump was trailing in some polls to ron desantis in a republican primary. now, he has a booming lead. i went back to figure out where the surge was coming from. to be sure, he has rallied all corners of the party. but college educated republicans were right at the top to explain trump's surge.

the reasons are various about why. i talked to a couple dozen republican voters across the early state primaries about why this has happened. there's not a sense that they want to don the red caps and get to a trump rally. instead, it's a reaction to biden and an increasing isolationist streak in the party. a lot of these folks were for desantis early on. when he stumbled, they sort of figured it's now trump's party and we're going to support him. it doesn't feel like cemented support from this group of republicans. right now inside the party it's these folks who have been most skeptical of trump over the last seven or eight years who are now behind him. that's how we get to trump at

60% in some of these national polls. >> how do these college educated republicans who have now come to trump reconcile january 6th or his handling of the pandemic? there are certain things that would seem to break away from him, but yet they're willing to ignore it, it seems. tell us what you found. >> that's a very good question. i think it's something important to watch moving forward. a lot of these folks, they kind of talk about january 6th in terms of the four criminal cases that trump is being targeted, the 91 felonies. they view a lot of those felonies, a lot of those investigations as unfair, as politically motivated. that makes them want to rally behind their party and coalesce

and be united to say that these are not fair. i talked to a lot of people who say some of these specific charges were what pushed them to trump, starting from the stormy daniels indictment in new york all the way to the colorado supreme court ruling. i talked to a woman who said the colorado supreme court ruling within the last month or so tipped the balance for her. i think as this moves forward, again, that will be interesting to see as cases play out, as trials begin if folks are saying the same something. frankly, probably after trump has the nomination, which obviously will be too late in the current context of the primary. >> thank you so much. still ahead, the story of

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not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives of banks, big pharma, even top administration officials. katie porter. never taken corporate pac money - never will. leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks” that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change.

shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message. so you want me to lead 5,000 negroes into los angeles and disrupt the democratic convention. i'm sorry. i'm not your man. >> who told you you were not our man? were you not our man when you took command of the montgomery bus boycott or spoke with such eloquence the name your home was bombed. >> when c.l. first heard you speak, he rang me and said there's magic going on around here. when that star starts to shine brighter than any other,

including the most powerful negro leaders that came before, they will do everything in power to extinguish your life and put you in your place. >> ms. bank, i received a number of calls from prominent members of the movement who see no wisdom in these protests. men with whom i share a strong kinship. >> not once you leave the room. >> scenes from the film "rustin." planning and organized the historic 1963 march on washington. for most of buy yard rustin's life and work, it was done behind the scenes because he was an openly gay man, making him a target of the fbi and conservative members of the civil rights movement. the new film "rustin" is the first narrative feature from barack and michelle obama's production company. with us now, two stars of the

film, aml amin who plays martin luther king jr. and grammy, tony and emmy award winner audrey mcdonald who plays civil rights activist ella baker. aml, first i want to talk to you about bringing martin luther king to life. for those of us who came after him, trying to put a giant like that on a personal level and seeing him as a human being, you might as well try to do the same with like george washington or abraham lincoln. they are just these huge figures. you do that successfully in the film. how do you do it? >> well, thank you, joe, that's very, very kind of you. i appreciate that. i would say it also starts with george c. wolf, the director of "rustin" had a particular design of how he wanted king to be. he readily informed me that king at this stage of his life was

very influenced by rustin. he had not yet done the march on washington. he was a star, like it was said in the clip, but he was rising to that. so it was a lot of dedication, a lot of focus on the voice. i'm british, so it's kind of navigating those waters. definitely -- watching a lot of his interviews actually, less his speeches, but his interviews to find out who he was in his more intimate moments. >> i was really lucky and got to see this at a d.c. premier with a group of black gay men, so crying, ugly crying with a lot of people who understood it and got it. audra, in this time and in this country where you see people not wanting us to have the fulsome conversation about race and culture and what's happened in the past, how important it is to find and excavate the stories of people like rustin as we move

forward. >> i think it's incredibly important because we see how relevant byard's story is. we're still fighting the same battles. it's necessary to inspire the younger generation to say the work is not done, and the world needs more voices and loud voices, and many roads to the same destination, many ways for fighting for these rights and these justices. so i love that people today, young people especially, are able to see themselves in some of these characters, special someone like byard. >> tell us about ella baker, what drew you to that role and what we can all learn today from her? >> the wonderful thing about ella baker and being able to play her is she is also someone who is a hidden figure of the civil rights movement. for those of us who know, she was considered the mother of the civil rights movement, but she was also sort of in the background.

she didn't sort of buy into being in the forefront, but she liked to consult and mentor people. she was not only a part of dr. king's organization, the southern christian leadership conference, but she also helped to get these young kids to organize and create smik. she was mentoring people like john lewis, dianne nash, encouraging them and encouraging them to empower themselves, empower their voices and to i'm power the people they're going out to support. it was very much a part of making sure that the people that they were going out to support realize that those people, the grassroots, they're the ones that know what they need, listen to them to help them. don't go out to lead them. help empower them. >> you know, aml, byard rustin, we're talking about how difficult it was for him to be an openly gay black man during

the lead-up to the march in '63. it still is a challenge. it still is a challenge to be a gay black man, let's say, in a black church. i go back to 2008 when barack obama won in california, and yet black voters and hispanic voters voted against marriage equality on that date. i bring that up to say, my god, it's tough for a black gay man in 2024. it shows just how extraordinary this was in 1963! this guy was a half a century ahead of his time. >> yeah, and he was bold and he was honest. i think that's what's so important about this story, especially told from colman domingo who has that same brash, bold honesty. everybody can relate to him

regardless of his sexuality, regardless of his race. byard was a leader that helped shape this country and helped influence one of the country's most celebrated leaders, martin luther king. i think this story is directly inspirational to people. just being able to really facilitate the fact that it took more than just one person, more than just this one individual, martin luther king, to actually get to this march on washington, to kind of give these unsung heroes a light, i think is imperative because it influences you in a direct way where you feel like, oh, i can do it, too. king is such an icon, such a figure that's up there that i think sometimes we the people today feel like it's a height we can't reach. perhaps we can't, but we can do our bit. we can do our bit. that's what i love about the story of rustin and byard rustin specifically. >> it's an extraordinary story about an