plows off the road overnight. definitely we're telling people to take it safe outside, have a to go bag in your car in case you do get stuck. wear as many layers as you can. really take care of yourselves and pets because this is not the type of weather you want to be stuck out in. >> listen, i think you just shared potentially life saving information, thank you so much. we do hope everybody stays safe this week moving forward. that's going to do it for us today. we'll see you back here tomorrow, same time, same place. thanks for being here. don't forget, you can also catch our show online. i'm ana cabrera reporting from new york, josé diaz-balart picks up our coverage right now. good morning, it is 11:00 a.m. eastern, 8:00 a.m. pacific. i'm josé diaz-balart. it is caucus day in iowa, the first major test for the republican candidates. our brand new polling shows former president trump with a 30

point lead, and nikki haley and ron desantis in a battle for second place. also, subzero temperatures could make it the coldest caucus day in iowa on record. plus, our very own steve kornacki at the big board tracking the story lines to watch, and how the result tonight could impact next week's new hampshire primary. meanwhile, new accusations, texas officials blocked border agents from saving a migrant woman is and two children from drowning at the southern border. the white house calling it imhumane. another attack on american forces in the red sea, we have details on how the u.s. responded. the u.s. responded. we begin this hour with the very first contest of the 2024 race for the white house. iowa caucus goers are braving

some of the bitterest temperatures, plunging a low as minus 18 overnight. and a new media com poll giving us a closer look at the enthusiasm gap going into tonight's caucuses. nearly nine in ten trump supporters say they are very enthusiastic about their candidate. that number is 62% among desantis supporters. despite favorable polling, trump is urging his followers to get out and caucus for him even if it's the last thing they do. >> if you're sick as a dog, even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it remember. if you're sick, if you're just so sick you can't -- darn it, i don't think. get up. get up. you get up and you vote. joining us now, all live from iowa, nbc news correspondents vaughn hillyard, ali vitali, and dasha burns.

vaughn, let's start with you. is the trump campaign concerned about these frigid temperatures tonight? >> reporter: they say that they are not. they feel that they have built a bastian of support in the state and built an organization that will effectively be able to turn out the major share of folks that they have identified as supporters here in the state of iowa. this is an operation that eight years ago is a little more scatter shot in the state of iowa. they collect add bunch of cards, a bunch of names that said they supported donald trump. when it came to activating them in the last two weeks to get them out, that's where they fell short. this time it's been different. they have invested a great deal into identifying and making sure that those very people get out to the caucus tonight. one of the ways in which they're doing it is by offering rides to folks that feel they cannot otherwise. they have 1,800 precinct captains they have identified to

get ten new caucus goers out. if they're able to turn out those sorts of numbers, they are expected to have a big night tonight. i want to let you listen to two folks who i met at donald trump's final rally yesterday who came out to see him despite that negative 41 degree windchill. take a listen. >> you're going to caucus tomorrow night. >> oh, yeah, i'm going drag all my kids and all my friends there and yeah. >> how confident are you that he's going to be able to have good turnout despite this weather? >> i'm confident. i am. >> why are trump supporters going to be the ones that show up tomorrow night? >> in my mind because we saw what happened in the last election, even though there was a lot of support. i think it's just going to be huge numbers tomorrow. >> jose, i was talking to one of donald trump's caucus captains there, and he told me that he upped the number of folks he's trying to turn out himself from 10 to 20 in part because of the weather dynamic understanding

that a few folks who may say they're coming out may actually decide not to. i want to give you an idea of why i'm standing here in fort dodge. donald trump has no campaign events planned today. he has a super star cast of maga supporters, if you will, who are all going to be showing up at this brewery this early afternoon for his campaign's final event. that list includes marjorie taylor greene, matt gaetz, jim jordan, harriet hageman. the folks who are looking to close it out for him in the final hours before those caucus doors open just before 7:00 p.m. >> and ali, meanwhile, nikki haley is now in second place withins margin of error in the hawkeye state. still almost 30 points behind trump. what does the haley campaign need to get out of iowa? >> their focus at least in the short-term here in iowa is to get through ron desantis before underscoring what they have wanted this race to be the entire time, which is a one-on-one haley versus trump.

that is not the reality in all of the polls i've seen here in iowa. certainly haley does have an upward trajectory that her campaign is feeling really good about. still, she's not mincing words when she talks about the person who is her first rival before she gets to her ultimate rival, which is donald trump. listen to what she had to say about florida governor ron desantis and the strategy that he recently unveiled he would be partaking in which is not going to new hampshire next. instead he'd go iowa to south carolina, sort of challenging her on her home turf. he doesn't have much that he can gain in new hampshire, listen to haley as she reacted to that yesterday. >> i mean, he's only played in iowa. he's invisible in new hampshire. he's invisible in south carolina. he's fourth and fifth place in both of those. i welcome him to south carolina, but we're headed to new hampshire. that's the next state that votes. somebody might want to tell him that. >> haley of course has put a lot

of her eggs in the new hampshire basket, but they are hoping for iowa to be a spring board of sorts so that they can say if it's in second place that they are the ones with the clear momentum on the trajectory to potentially challenge trump on the ground of the granite state. if they come in third, there's a sort of no harm, no foul sort of sense, that it just reinforces the original status quo that we went into iowa with. they're focused on the fact that desantis and i know dasha will talk about this said iowa was the one he had to win. now it's looking like that's a real long shot. >> let's talk about that. the desantis campaign indeed has been really focused on iowa. he's done all 99 counties, what are the campaign's expectations for tonight? >> well, those expectations have changed over the course of the last few months. you know, i'm old enough to remember just a few months ago when the governor was confidently saying that he was going to win the state. now he's out on the trail calling himself an underdog in

this race. i can tell you this race to the finish is intense right now. i will talk to you right now about some of the surrogates that he has on the campaign trail with him. i want to bring in florida lieutenant governor jeanette nunez who flew in from a place that's probably about 100 degrees warmer than we are right now. how are you feeling about this frigid cold? >> it's exciting to be here in iowa and see all the enthusiasm. obviously the governor has been making a hardcore pitch to make sure iowans can have their voices heard. we're excited about what we've got going on here. >> you've been by his side during his administration, what is the closing message you are telling voters to try and get them on the side of the governor? >> from the perspective of somebody that, like you said, has stood alongside him through the difficult times, has seen his resolve, his courage, the convictions that he has, and how he's been able to deliver for floridians. what i'd like to say to iowans,

florida and iowa, although the temperature may be different, there is a lot that unites us in terms of what we expect from our leaders and what you'll get out of governor desantis is a leader that will not only campaign. he will deliver on 100% of his promises. he understands the sacrifices it takes to wear the uniform. he's served in our military. he's a dad. he understands the importance of protecting our kids. we're excited that iowans are going to be able to have their voices heard tonight. >> you flew from florida to iowa to try to help get out the vote. what does that look like for you and your team in these closing hours? >> we've been able to knock on a bunch of doors, talk to iowans. explain to them what we've seen in florida and what it means to them here in iowa. we've been able to make phone calls. we've seen the ground swell of support from iowans at rallies last night along with governor reynolds and so many individuals. it's not just the governor who's tremendously popular, but so many legislators, faith leaders, individuals that believe in

governor desantis, and we fully expect that iowans will brave the cold. they will make sure they head out and no matter what the situation is, they are comfortable with snow. i know it's a little bit colder than usual, but i don't think that they're going to stay home. i think they're going to come out because we've seen the iowans that are committed to governor desantis are firmly, firmly committed to seeing it through. >> when you see those numbers, though, he's in third place right now, and according to our latest poll, does that worry you? >> not at all. we've been underdogs in 2018 when we were running. every single poll had us down. one poll had us down 14 points. i think that we are firmly comfortable being underestimated. the governor has been investing resources, so much time he's spent here. all 99 counties. well fully expect he'll do really well tonight. >> thank you so much. jose, there you have it. folks like the lieutenant governor, kim reynolds, bob van der plats, other surrogates and

folks who have endorsed the governor out on the trail today trying to make that final pitch. >> one of the people did not support the governor of florida, the senator from the state of florida. as a matter of fact, marco rubio, who came in third in the iowa caucuses last time is now endorsing the former president, and vaughn, what kind of message do you think that is having? >> reporter: it's interesting. it's not just ron desantis, jose. his fellow floridian who he is slighting. he's also sleighting south carolina for governor nikki haley who ali was there eight years ago. nikki haley is the one standing on stage alongside marco rubio. she endorsed him while governor of south carolina in his presidential bid. at one point at a south carolina campaign stop while standing next to marco rubio said the republican party cannot have

somebody who acts like a kindergartner. it was a quite a striking endorsement yesterday to come from marco rubio eight years after haley decided to stand by his side. you also have utah senator mike lee endorsing donald trump over the weekend, and notably yesterday on the stage north dakota governor doug burgum. he is the first republican, former republican rival to donald trump in this presidential field to have dropped out and endorsed -- he endorsed donald trump. and so there was some conversations about some of these folks like tim scott, mike pence coalesing around somebody like ron desantis and nikki haley. the only formal rival of this field is doug burgum endorsing donald trump. the one thing looking ahead tonight is eight years ago, jose, ali and i were here and watched a record turnout. 186,000 republicans came and caucused. that was more than 65,000, the number of folks who had showed up for any other republican

caucus ever, and so this is a moment here i think that will be really defining, not only the maga support that is out there for donald trump but those folks for the likes of a marco rubio, whether they're still engaged in this republican process today or whether they stayed on the sideline. >> vaughn hillyard, ali vitali, and dasha burns, thank you so very much. as we mentioned, this year's iowa caucuses could be on track to be the coldest on record, but the brutal cold is also being felt across the entire country. nbc meteorologist bill karins is with us this morning. bill, the weather has been linked to at least three deaths already over the weekend. how dangerous are these conditions? >> if you get strand instead a -- strand instead a vehicle in a remote area, that would be the worst-case scenario. the avalanche concern in the west, those are the life-threatening portions of this. now the cold has made it down to the texas/mexico border. everywhere that's colored in here shows it's below 32

degrees. that goes down to the texas, mexico border. it's almost made its way to brownsville, texas. the southeast is the only year it's not that frigid and also the southwest. everybody else is in the midst of this cold plunge. i plotted every city on here in iowa, just to see who was the warmest. the warmest temperature in iowa currently is negative 2 degrees in shenandoah. everyone is in the negative numbers, and then when we factor in the windchill on top of that, obviously it gets even worse and the wind's howling. then the lowest windchill values, obviously the lowest the windchill value, the quicker you could get frostbite s in the northwest portion of the state. maurice is at negative 37. even areas like davenport are negative 30. you get the picture, everywhere in iowa it's brutally cold, and it's been that way. windchill warnings through tomorrow. the frigid gusts will go through the caucus time later tonight, and the cold starts in areas of canada.

it goes through texas. south texas is under a windchill warning, doesn't happen often, and the chicago area too. chicago feels like negative 24 right now. there's a lot of numbers on these maps. nashville's negative 1. there's snow on the ground. you had an inch of snow last night in the nashville area. and by the way, that means nashville had an inch of snow before washington, d.c., philly, and new york city this winter. when's it going to warm up? dallas, wednesday you warm up. same with houston. same with areas like denver. we're going to stay frigid throughout much of the northern half of the country. there is snow out there. northern mississippi, northern alabama, all the way through tennessee. finally the snow drought, it looks like d.c., philly and new york will get their first inch of snow in over two years tomorrow. >> wow, and to think that shenandoah is a toasty minus 2, and that's the warmest part of that state. unbelievable. coldest caucus ever, thank you. >> we'll have much more ahead

from iowa, including a breakdown of just how these caucuses work. texas authorities blocked them from saving a migrant woman and two children who drowned trying to cross the rio grande. we're back in 60 seconds with how the biden administration is ramping up its battle with texas officials. you're watching josé diaz-balart reports on msnbc. you're watching josé diaz-balart reports on msnbc when i wantede results fast, rinvoq delivered rapid symptom relief and helped leave bathroom urgency behind. check. when uc tried to slow me down... i got lasting, steroid-free remission with rinvoq. check. and when uc caused damage rinvoq came through by visibly repairing my colon lining. check. rapid symptom relief... lasting steroid-free remission... ...and the chance to visibly repair the colon lining. check, check, and check. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots, some fatal; cancers, including lymphoma and skin cancer; death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. people 50 and older with at least 1 heart disease

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after three migrants including two children died in the rio grande near eagle pass. the white house says texas officials blocked the border patrol from attempting to provide emergency assistance. morgan chesky joins us from dallas. good morning. what do we know about what happened? these migrants drowning including two children. >> reporter: yeah, jose, an unfortunate tragedy happening at the border that is becoming more common as these illegal crossings continue, but what we're looking at here is a disputed time line between what federal officials are saying and what texas officials are saying that involve those drowning deaths that you mentioned. we do know that according to federal officials, they were contacted by mexican authorities alerting them to a mother and two children crossing the rio grande near shelby park in eagle pass. this is near the area where so many of those crossings have

been taken place. it was at that point officials were dispatched to these location, and we hear from the federal government saying that were unable to reach that woman and the two children. meanwhile, i want to share with you what the state officials are ying in response essentially accused of barring them from beg able to rescue these individuals. we have a statementthe texas military department say that the claims that they prevented border patrol from saving the lives of drowning migrants are wholly inaccurate. at the time the border patrol requested access, the drownings had occurred. mexican authorities were recovering the bodies and border patrol expressed these facts to military personnel on site. we do know that an investigation has also been launched into this very event in hopes of finding out more, but jose, these three recent deaths adding to hundreds of others that have taken place along the entire u.s. mexico border. in fact, volunteers in eagle

pass have been erecting crossing going to pay tribute to each of those migrant lives lost. jose. >> morgan chesky, thank you very much. up next, we're going to go back to iowa to a super caucus location that could see more than a thousand people turn out tonight. plus, steve kornacki is here with what you need to watch for tonight as the candidates make their final push before the doors open. steve, always a pleasure to see you my friend, we're chatting in just a minute. you're watching "josé diaz-balart reports" on msnbc. diaz-balart reports" on msnbc. s, red patches are all people see. otezla is the #1 prescribed pill to treat plaque psoriasis. [ned?] it can help you get clearer skin and reduce itching and flaking. with no routine blood tests required. doctors have been prescribing it for nearly a decade. otezla is also approved to treat psoriatic arthritis. don't use otezla if you're allergic to it. serious allergic reactions can happen.

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24 past the hour. roughly eight and a half hours from right now iowans will gather at schools, churches, libraries and other places across the state to decide who should be the republican nominee for president this fall. the big question is whether bone chilling cold will keep people away from the caucuses, which are held in person. with us now to look ahead to tonight's caucuses nbc news's national political correspondent steve kornacki, and jacob soboroff in iowa. steve, what are you looking for in this evening? >> yeah, a couple of different kinds of counties. look, iowa's got 99 of them here. two in particular, two types of counties here. number one, evangelical,s, loom so large. the modern formula, win the

evangelical vote, win the iowa republican caucuses. mike huckabee in 2008, rick san tor up in 2012. 42 of the 99 counties in iowa were huckabee, santorum, cruz counties. donald trump lost iowa in 2016, lost to ted cruz. one of the big reasons was evangelicals were not yet really on board with donald trump. so places that were looking that fit that mold, a pretty big one in northwest iowa is sioux county. this was actually in 2016. i'll show you the results. a win for ted cruz, it was donald trump's worst county in iowa in 2012. he only got 11% of the vote right here. so in counties like this we want to see two things we're looking for tonight, number one, has trump improved, the polls certainly suggest he has. maybe the question is how much has trump improved with evangelical voters since 2016. polls indicate this is now a core part of his base. the county like sioux and these other 41 huckabee, santorum cruz counties are going to tell that

story. the second story they're going to tell is does ron desantis have a chance of pulling any kind of a surprise here tonight? those counties, those heavily evangelical counties, he's gone after the evangelical vote hard. he's gotten endorsement from the sort of leader of the evangelical movement, political movement in iowa. he has got to be making inroads in those conditions if he's going to make any kind of a surprise tonight. the other kind of county, jose, we're looking at tonight is different. it's more suburban, urban, higher income, a big concentration of college degrees. that profile i'm describing, that also was a rough one for donald trump in 2015. story county, this is where ames is, iowa state university, the cyclones. this was also one of donald trump's worst counties in 2016. look, 15% here. but look who won it in 2016, it was marco rubio. marco rubio was attracting those voters i was just describing there, higher income college

graduate, suburban urban voters. well, the polls suggest coming into tonight that the candidate who's making inroads there, nikki haley. so if nikki haley is going to make any noise tonight, you've got to look at it, there's not that many in the state. you look at polk county, this is the granddaddy of them all. 17% of the vote is going to come out of polk county tonight. this was a rubio county in 2018. how is haley doing in the big bedroom county of dallas county, western suburbs of des moines. we showed you story county. how about another one here? johnson county. this is where the university of iowa is. iowa city heavily democratic but there's a lot of population there. if haley, she wants to beat desantis for second, she wants to make a statement. those are the core counties to look at for haley tonight, and again, the other question to them too is has donald trump improved at all since 2016. >> yeah, and you know, jacob covering iowa caucuses over the years, it's been such a fascinating process to watch.

it's not like you just show up and you vote for the candidate you want and then head home if you have to be there, but it's so -- the process is lengthy, and it's really fascinating. you're at a high school that will serve as a caucus site for the entire county. how exactly will tonight's caucuses work there? >> yeah, it is incredible, jose. this is very different from the democratic caucus process where everyone gathers in one room and just on what steve was talking about, this is one of those counties wappalo county, and we're going to see what margin trump wins compared to last year. this is ottumwa high school. it's an incredible high school. everyone is going to gather from wappalo county in this auditorium and listen to pitches from the campaigns before they actually go out and caucus. where they caucus is not actually in this room. come with me, hear at ottumwa high school, and you can see some of the teachers and faculty and staff are still here getting ready, it has been around since

1923. it is a beautiful building. come down these stairs. the caucus itself doesn't take place in that auditorium. it takes place down in the classrooms. they just celebrated their 100 year anniversary, shoutout to the bulldogs when they come down these stairs, they're going to be looking for their precinct, jose, and the precincts are in individual different classrooms. so you might be from all corners of wappalo county, but everybody's going to meet here today, it might be as many as a thousand people. in 2016 they had something like 1,900 people show up here for the super caucus. for instance, you're going to go in a classroom 120, which is a spanish classroom on a normal day, but on this night, it will be between the hours of 7:00 and around 9:00, a place where you're going to bring your ballot, if you are in this precinct, you're going to put it in the ballot box, and they're going to tabulate the votes in the precinct. come with me, i was mentioning that this is a trump county in 2016. trump won, i think, and steve can tell you better than i can.

35, 36% of the vote here and came out on top. what they're going to be looking for this time around, if that number goes up or down, is he going to win 50% of the vote or might he win less? it will be indicative of how he's performing in these trump stronghold counties. once they have all of that data from the different precinct level caucuses inside this building, they're going to bring it all down in here into the cafeteria where there's going to be a giant white board. they're going to take the results from the different classrooms and put them up on the white board, tabulate the results for wappalo county and transmit those back to the state republican party where it will ultimately come into the bigger picture of who won the iowa caucuses overall. it isn't a simple process. it is definitely unique to iowa, and it's unique to our ununited states of americas when it comes to the ways and days we vote, jose. >> yeah, it's just the

fascinating aspects of democracy how it's represented in different ways in different states, and so jacob, when does it start, and when does it end tonight? >> so local time people will start showing up here when the doors open i think around 5:00, 5:30, and then at 6:00, 6:30, people are starting to gather upstairs in that auditorium, 8:00 on the east coast, 5:00 out west, the actual speeches will start. once those speeches start people come down to the classroom as i mentioned, and by 9:00 they hope to have results here at this location. i'm not going to get ahead of myself. we've seen what happened in years past. that's the hope, whether or not it's the reality are two different things. >> steve, what are your thoughts on that? it's such a -- it's so wonderful to see, and thank you, jacob, for showing us physically what that process is going to look like, but steve, it's just the unique aspect of our democracy, you know. >> it is. i also -- you know, one thing

that's worth pointing out here too is the iowa democratic caucuses, and they're not happening tonight, the whole dispute with the dnc, it's a big thing. traditionally if you think of the iowa democratic caucuses and the iowa republican caucuses, these are different. the republican caucuses are different. it's the democratic caucuses. you line up in one corner of the room for one candidate. if you don't get 15% in the first vote, they have another round. it's much more complicated on the democratic side. when it comes to the actual voting in the caucus, it's a ballot, you check off a name, you put it in the box. it really is an election at that point. so it's simpler from that standpoint. >> indeed, but you have to be there, and you have to show up to that high school, and you have to sit it out, and it's a fascinating real process that is wonderful to see, thank you, jacob, and thank you, steve, for bringing us those details.

breaking news from israel, where police say one is dead, more than a dozen injured after a car rammed into a group of pedestrians outside tel aviv. plus, an update on the search for survivors after a deadly landslide in colombia. you're watching "josé diaz-balart reports" on msnbc. rg this kitchen. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. ♪ students... students of any age, from anywhere. students in a new kind of classroom. ♪ using our technology to power different ways of learning. ♪ harnessing ai to plant new beginnings. ♪ so when minds grow, opportunities follow. with nurtec odt i can treat and prevent my migraine attacks all in one.

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38 past the hour. now to breaking news on the health of defense secretary

lloyd austin, joining us now, nbc news senior white house correspondent gabe gutierrez. good morning, what do we know? >> good morning, we just received word that defense secretary lloyd austin has been released from the hospital. we're just getting this statement just a few moments ago from the secretary of defense and as well from his doctors. and the secretary says i'm grateful for the excellent care that i received at walter reed national military medical center. i want to thank the outstanding doctors as i continue to recuperate and perform my duties from home, i'm eager to fully recover. now, his doctors say that he was released, that his prostate cancer was treated early and effectively, and that his prognosis is excellent. he has no planned further treatment for his cancer other than some surveillance. so, jose, of course this comes after the defense secretary was hospitalized for about two weeks. he was diagnosed with prostate cancer in early december but has

received a lot of criticism for not only not notifying the white house but notifying the public. late last week president biden said it was a lapse in judgment for the defense secretary not to alert the white house with the diagnosis but he still has full confidence in the defense secretary and lloyd austin of course oversaw those strikes in yemen from his hospital bed. again, the breaking news is just a short time ago we received a statement from lloyd austin saying that he has been released from the hospital and plans to continue working from home. jose. >> and gabe, meanwhile a 911 caller falsely claimed this morning that there was a fire at the white house? >> yes, we're also just getting some word about that. it was an incident this morning where just after 7:00 a.m. a 911 caller called that d.c. fire and ems and reported a fire at the white house. it was a false call, fake emergency call. the caller also saying someone

was trapped inside, but shortly after that call even though multiple units responded, d.c. fire and ems in conjunction with the secret service was able to determine this was a false call. it is in the spirit of recent swatting incidents that have increasingly targeted public officials. again, this was a false call just after 7:00 a.m. this morning, a call that alleged a fire at the white house was not true, jose. >> gabe gutierrez at the white house, thank you so very much. this morning a u.s. owned vessel with marshal island flags was hit by a missile off the coast of yemen, according to british maritime trade operations. the attack comes one day after the u.s. shot down an antiship missile. there were no injuries or damages reported there. now separately two u.s. navy s.e.a.l.s are missing while trying to board a ship off the coast of somalia according to to

two defense officials. with the war in gaza on day 101, the death toll has surpassed 24,000 according to the hamas-run ministry of health. joining us now is raf sanchez in tel aviv. you're following new details about a car ramming attack in central israel. what do we know about that? >> this attack happening in an affluent city just north of tel aviv. israeli police saying two palestinians hijacked at least three -- in a series of ramming attacks. one of those ramming attacks aimed at a bus stop. people were lined up there waiting for the bus. they were hit by this car careening into them according to israeli police. one woman in her 70s killed, 13 people taken to hospital, and israeli police spokesman telling me all of the people injured killed in this incident were civilians. there were no police, no soldiers caught up in it. hamas is taking responsibility

for this. they're calling it operation ra na na. they say it is a natural response to the massive loss of life we've seen in gaza over the last 100 plus days. israeli police are saying these two attackers are from the city of hebron in the occupied west bank, that they snuck illegally into israel and, jose, a little unusually, they weren't killed during the attack. they were captured alive by israeli police. they're now in the custody of israel's domestic security agency, and they're being interrogated. this all comes amid broader security concerns about the situation in the west bank. over the weekend, according to the israeli military, a group of palestinians tried to infiltrate into an israeli settlement there. those three palestinians were all killed. more than 300 palestinians have been killed in the west bank since october 7th. that's mostly in clashes with

israeli forces u but some of them also killed by israeli settlers. there is a lot of concern that the collapsing economic situation in the west bank could be a spark for more violence. jose. >> raf sanchez in tel aviv, thank you so very much. this morning, rescuers in colombia are trying to find any survivors after a landslide that killed at least 34 people. it happened in the western colombian areas of the cities between in the state of cho coe. the mud slide covered on a busy highway after heavy rains. families say they lost everything. colombia's president visited the site on sunday and met with first responders on the scene. up next, we'll talk about one specific group of voters critical to republicans for tonight's iowa caucuses and the rest of the country as well. you're watching "josé diaz-balart reports" on msnbc. a.

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and 38 past the hour. we have these live pictures coming in fl philadelphia where president biden is at a volunteer center there. today remembering martin luther king jr. day and honoring that. there you see the president of the united states in philadelphia live at this hour. let's head on back to iowa and the countdown to tonight's first in the nation caucuses. moments ago, florida governor ron desantis talked with nbc's hallie jackson and said he's still in the race in matter what happens tonight? >> you are not dropping out of this race tonight or tomorrow no matter what, fair? >> we're going on. we've been built for the long haul. it's all about the accumulation of delegates. you know, we're excited about tonight. i think that we put in the work, and i think you're going to see that. >> and now to talk more about this, victoria defrancesco soto, dean of the clinton school of public service at the university

of arkansas and matthew dowd, chief strategist for the 2004 bush cheney campaign, both victoria and matthew are msnbc contributors. what are you looking out for tonight? >> i'm looking at how far the distance between haley and desantis is. so desantis came in thinking that he could really make a mark in iowa and we saw that ridiculous lead that president trump took, but he still wanted to be second. we saw haley creep up. i think whether or not he hangs in, even though he said differently in the clip you just showed, i think tonight is really going to be the decisive factor for desantis going on or dropping out. >> matthew, what are you going to be looking for? >> well, i'm looking at donald trump's margin. i mean, just keep in mind a couple of things. the largest margin of ever a nonincumbent republican in iowa was 13 points. donald trump looks like he's going to double that probably in that. that's an amazing figure. the other thing also to keep in mind, if donald trump wins iowa

and goes on, which is likely in the margin he is and then wins the nomination, there's only been three presidential candidates in the history of the united states of america to win their nomination three times. franklin delano roosevelt, richard nixon, and donald trump in this, so to me, the most important thing to me is how big that margin is because if that margin is bigger than 20 points, it's very hard for anybody to catch up at that point going forward. >> what does ron desantis have to look forward to after iowa? i mean, he has put a lot of work and a lot of resources into iowa. he's been to the 99 counties. what is his way forward, matthew? >> a vacation in florida, but it's probably what it looks like to me. i mean, ron desantis has spent about $200 million and has only drifted down in the polls since the time he got in until the

time today, and that is especially true. he has put all his chips on the table and tried. right now he initially wanted to fight for first place. now he's fighting for second place. and i agree if he finishes in third place, i don't care what he told hallie jackson, the race is over for him, all but over. so to me right now, if he doesn't do what he's supposed to do in iowa and at least finish second in the course of this, he's looking for warm time in the sun in florida. >> and you know, victoria, evangelical voters make up two-thirds of republican caucus goers in 2016. according to the new nbc news des moines register media poll, trump is leading among evangelical voters with 51%. desantis, 22. haley is at 12. evangelicals are really a powerful force in that state. what would this show and what would this mean if trump does indeed get that kind of support

from evangelicals? >> we're seeing that numerical distance in the support, but also the enthusiasm of evangelical voters. i think this really entrenches, jose, trump's mantle as the evangelical candidate, which is a head scratcher given his background and thinking about other candidates. mike pence, that was part of his core self-identity throughout his political tenure. but i think that what the trump campaign has been very able to do very savvy is position david and goliath match up between trump and his legal troubles. between trump and his opposition. and that's the narrative that has been able to connect with that evangelical base that we know is a base that is especially powerful in iowa. so if he locks it in here, he can really build on that momentum in states that have

other sizable evangelical contingencies such as in the south. >> iowa's a major agricultural state. i remember the '80s covering the increase of the lay ocean community. according to the nbc news des moines register media com poll november, 80% of republican caucusgoers said immigration and border security was an issue extremely important to them. how do immigration issues play if iowa? >> in two ways. i think when you see it in the media, when you hear the different candidates talk about immigration and villainize it, latinos coming into iowa and states across the midwest. in particular, your rural areas that are dying. that are literally declining in population. latinos, young latinos, are providing a, an energy boost. both in terms of filling much

needed agricultural position. filling needs such as nursing aides, caring for the elderly, the children. they recognize that there is trouble and they need literally new blood, new energy and they welcome that that rhetoric, that red meat of the antiimmigrant still dominates. >> and matthew, so the new hampshire primaries are one week from tomorrow. how do you think what happens tonight will have an impact on new hampshire? >> well, i think two things. first, i'll say about immigration for me, republicans use immigration issue as a place holder for their anger over the changing nature of america. i mean, that's what it's fundamentally about. it's about their anger at a multiculture, multidiverse, multiethnic democracy, which immigration and the border is a place they can hold those views in. on new hampshire, i think the only determinate factor that

iowa can have at this point is whether or not ron desantis survives going forward and does nikki haley get any lift at all to sort of get her in within single digit or beat donald trump in this, but the thing about new hampshire you have to keep in mind. new hampshire is as different from the states that follow as iowa is from new hampshire. so new hampshire, you then go to south carolina. very different. this is still a race of donald trump's to lose. >> thank you so very much. up next, republicans say they want to bring in more voters of color, but they're skipping the nation's oldest minority focus presidential forum in iowa right before a caucus on this martin luther king jr. day. you're watching jose diaz-balart reports on msnbc. diaz-balart reports on msnbc

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oh, ew! i think you've said enough. why don't we just switch to xfinity like everyone else? then you would know what year it was. i know what year it is. any minute now, vice president harris is set to deliver remarks in south carolina. appearing at the king of the dome program on this martin luther king jr. day. meanwhile on the republican side as iowans prepare to head to the caucuses, nearly every gop candidate rejected an offer to participate in the nation's oldest minority focused forum. joining us now, you sat down with organizers of the forum. what did you learn?

>> well, jose, organizers say they feel republicans blew a golden opportunity to engage with the black and latino voters not just in iowa but nationwide by attending this forum. it's been happening since 1984. they've had a ton of democratic candidates but have never been able to get enough republicans to commit to make it happen. this year was no different. they had to cancel again due to a low number of participants. here's what organizers had to say about again canceling the forum. >> it just throws us off. yeah, we're past being disappointed. we give them opportunity. when they come to iowa, i don't care if we got one black and two hispanic, we are valuable people here. our opinions and questions just as important as white people. i didn't care for republican or democrat or independent. if you're independent, we ask the same questions. >> exit polls since 2016 have

shown that more black and latino voters have been supporting the republican party. and the caucus falls on mlk day. no one turned out and they're hoping next year, maybe next election cycle, they'll be able to bring the republican forum to fruition. >> we want to thank you so very much. it's good to see you. that wraps up the hour for me. i'm jose diaz-balart. you can always reach me on social media and watch clips from our show on youtube at msnbc.com/jdb. thank you for the privilege of your time. andrea mitchell picks up with more news right now. more news right now. right now on this special election edition of "andrea mitchell reports," the iowa caucuses. it's here. the first votes of the 2024 race for the white house are just eight hours away. where the record cold temperatures could be a factor, prompting all the candidates to plead with their supporters to turn out.