voters have been supporting the republican party. and the caucus falls on mlk day. no one turned out and they're hoping next year, maybe next election cycle, they'll be able to bring the republican forum to fruition. >> we want to thank you so very much. it's good to see you. that wraps up the hour for me. i'm jose diaz-balart. you can always reach me on social media and watch clips from our show on youtube at msnbc.com/jdb. thank you for the privilege of your time. andrea mitchell picks up with more news right now. more news right now. right now on this special election edition of "andrea mitchell reports," the iowa caucuses. it's here. the first votes of the 2024 race for the white house are just eight hours away. where the record cold temperatures could be a factor, prompting all the candidates to plead with their supporters to turn out. >> you can't sit home.

even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it. >> i know it's cold, but we need you out there. >> i know it's going to get even colder and we're in. we're showing up. >> in nbc's news partnership with the des moines register poll, donald trump has an unprecedented lead of nearly 30 points. never before seen such a big lead in this caucus. with all eyes on the battle for second place, nikki haley has moved ahead of ron desantis for the first time in the poll, but she may have peaked too soon. more on that in a moment. we'll have a full breakdown in moments and talk to the governor of new hampshire. rnor of new hampshire good day, everyone. it's here. it's the first voting day of the 2024 election. i'm andrea mitchell in

washington. this martin luther king day is also caucus day in iowa. the first of the nation presidential nominating contest of 2024. more than 1600 hall rs gearing up through iowa's 99 counties. there's no early voting, no mail-in ballots so it's all about turn out today. the brutal sub zero windchills could make this the coldest caucus night in history but the temperature might not be the only records being smashed. the poll shows former president trump in a commanding 28 point lead. if that's what we see from voters tonight, that would be an historic margin of victory. the widest gop win in iowa ever was set 36 years ago by senator bob dole and he won by just under 13 points. if mr. trump can surpass 50% threshold, he could cement his grip on the party.

nikki haley is picking up momentum late in the game, unseating ron desantis as the runner up but a poster also points to major warning signs for the former south carolina governor. >> we have a four point scale. extremely enthusiastic, very, mildly or not that enthusiastic. the majority of her supporters on the bottom half of that scale. they choose her as their first choice. they're only mildly or not that enthusiastic. i've never seen that. >> now, that's positive news for desantis because anything less than a second place finish could mean an embarrassing end of his campaign after declaring just last month he would win iowa. we'll be checking in throughout the hour with our nbc news correspondents who are fanned out across the state. we start with garrett haake outside des moines and priscilla

thompson. so, garrett, 50% would be a major victory for donald trump. will the win be as big as the polls are suggesting? >> well, it looks that way, andrea, and good afternoon from an as yet empty bar that will later today be the site of a donald trump jr. event as they try to capture the enthusiasm you see at trump events across the state and events. you're seeing a margin that would give donald trump twice the record of any other republican caucus vigtry. in and of itself, a huge achievement. i think there's an open question of whether he could hit 50%. the idea that you know, crossing to a majority threshold in a contested primary would be a huge mark. his team has been trying to lower expectations suggesting that they don't think that's possible. now, as i've been out across the state over the last week or so, especially in these sub zero temperatures, you see hundreds if not thousands of people showing up for some of these trump events. that's the enthusiasm captured

in this poll where he's candidate who has by far the most enthusiastic supporters. these folks are telling me they want to come out to just show him they're supporting him and they understand the importance of showing up tonight to caucus for him. this caucus unlike in 2016 where donald trump came in second, they have the infrastructure in place, the sort of serious campaign operation to capture that support that's always been there for him. his team believes and turn it into actual caucusgoers who will put them over the top. perhaps by that historic margin later tonight. >> and priscilla thompson is standing by. in 2016, mr. trump only carried 11% of the ultra conservative sioux county. you're there today. he's since won over evangelicals. what would it mean if trump scores big in rural iowa? >> yeah, andrea. and to put a fine point on it, former president trump performed the worst in this county in 2016, but as you noted, since then, he's really galvanized

that evangelical vote and in our latest poll, it shows 51% of evangelicals in iowa saying that donald trump is their first choice pick. that is important because when we look at the gop electorate in the last caucus, two out of three of those caucusgoers were evangelicals. we have trekking across the state talking to people and here's what we're hearing ahead of tonight's caucus. what are your top issues now? >> border and economy. >> abortion would be probably the top issue. >> our economy is insane. >> immigration is a huge issue. >> at the restaurant, my prices have just gone crazy. >> who do you think is best equipped to address those issues? >> i would probably have to say somebody other than trump just because of all the drama that he brings along with him. >> i like desantis because he has a excellent record of service.

selfless service. he has a record of accomplishment. >> i'm not a trump fan. nikki haley has a lot of good points. >> trump is our guy. >> why? >> promises made, promises kept. >> i hear them say we're going to secure the border. trump did that. we're going to fix the economy. well, trump did that. i'd probably vote for him if he's in jail. >> and we have certainly heard trump's name as the first choice in this county more than anyone else that we heard in talking to caucusgoers and if donald trump can win here in sioux county and wrap up the vote in some of these rural, conservative counties, it could be a sign of how the sta is going to go tonight. andrea? >> garrett, "the new york times" reporting thamp is picking up support from college educated conservatives. in michael bender's story today, he writes quote their surge toward the former president appears to stem largely from a reaction to the current political climate rather than a sudden clambering to join the

red cap citizenry of maga. they're different voters and they're going for trump this time. >> yeah. i agree with everything michael said in that piece expect rat rather than calling it a surge, i'd call it a shuffle. their preferred candidate isn't going to be it or the writing on the wall indicates that donald trump is likely the best bet for them. i look at this in the context of marco rubio endorsing donald trump yesterday. rubio was basically the mayor of where i am now in the 2016 cycle. he was the darling of the college educated class of republican voters. he couldn't get it done. i think these things are interrelated events. the idea that college educated republican voters are looking around saying maybe i didn't love donald trump but he seems like he's going to be the guy. i think the leading edge of this was in the donor class who started out looking for an alternative to trump and sort of placing bets on some of these other candidates and started pulling their money back. if they're not giving it to trump yet, they're at least not giving it to his rivals in the

same way that the kind of never trump movement had predicted. now we're seeing that shuffle of some of these other disaffected voters saying i didn't love trump and they're slowly starting to get back into the tent. >> the race for second place, there have been a lot of talk that maybe desantis wins all 99 counties in iowa would drop out if he doesn't place second or really does a bad third here, there in iowa. well, hallie jackson just talked the him about his plans on staying in the race and let's take a look at what he told her. >> we're going on. we've been built for the long haul. it's all about the accumulation of delegates. we're excited about tonight. >> so priscilla, ron desantis is in it to win it. >> yeah, in it to win it and projecting confidence as is

nikki haley today and part of that may be because he has a robust ground operation on the ground game here. nikki haley is pulling in second. the weather going to be a big factor. enthusiasm. are those caucusgoers going to turn out? and i will also say how often have we heard a candidate before the caucus saying they're going to stay in it through the long haul then a week later that changes. so we will certainly be watching to see what happens tonight and of course, he's heading to south carolina after iowa and then also planning to campaign in new hampshire. but the race is still on for now. andrea? >> priscilla and garrett, thanks so much for setting the stage there and the poll position. stay with us. in just 60 seconds, mark murray will be with us with everything you need to know about the new nbc news des moines register poll. what we expect from the first in the nation iowa republican caucuses tonight. e first in the nation iowa republican caucuses tonight ns can occur, even days after using.

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tonight's iowa caucuses could be a contest of how big dold trump's lead is. according to the latest polling, donald trump has nearly a 30 point lead over his nearest challenger. 28 points. and could end up with more than 50% of the vote. joining us now from des moines is mark murray and the founder and ed for of the bullwork, charlie sykes. mark, just 32% of republican caucusgoers say they're extremely enthusiastic. but nearly half of trump supporters say that about him. considering the blustery cold, the winds in iowa today, the snow. what could these numbers mean for haley and desantis? >> andrea, these numbers could be the entire ball game given the weather conditions that are out there and also do note that

caucus contests are always about enthusiasm in the first place. there's not any early voting. there's not vote by mail. you have to show up at caucus time to participate and so enthusiasm means so much. so, yes, our poll shows that donald trump supporters have the most enthusiasm. 49% are extremely enthusiastic about him. then behind that, that is ron desantis with 23% of his supporters then well below that is nikki haley at just 9%. so when we're talking about the race for second place between nikki haley and desantis with haley slightly ahead of desantis, those numbers could make that race for second place even closer than our poll shows. >> charlie, what explains the gap between those saying haley is their first choice candidate but when you dig down in the

numbers. >> mark is absolutely right. to stand around and caucus. my guess is that a lot of this haley support comes from people who are not necessarily pro haley, but they're anti trump. they may be independents or democrat who are supporting her because they think she has the best chance of derailing trump. so they're not enthusiastically pro haley, but they're turning out to block donald trump. that's always a disadvantage in a campaign like this. particularly in a night like this where it really is all about motivation, enthusiasm and organization. >> and mark, when it comes to support for the eventual nominee, when you look back in history in republican iowa caucuses, the iowa winner doesn't usually determine who the winner is, but in this case, if trump is over 50%, that sends such a strong message to the

anti trump republicans. as to where they might go. so where would haley and desantis supporters go in new hampshire? in south carolina? in nevada? >> yeah. our poll is actually very indicative of that next contest in new hampshire. in iowa, half of nikki haley supporters according to the nbc news des moines register poll are either independents or crossover democrats and that kind of voters composition is very, that seems tailor made to new hampshire where the polls show nikki haley much closer versus donald trump than they are in iowa. but the challenge for nikki haley is that once you get beyond new hampshire that all of a sudden, those voter compositions, it's much more registered republicans, conservative republicans. so it becomes tougher for her as she goes into places like south carolina, her home state, as well as those super tuesday contests. and charlie was mentioning also

the antitrump vote that seems to be very important part of nikki hailey's coalition. our poll found 43% of her support rs saying they're going to vote for joe biden in the general election, making her candidacy and coalition a lot different than the other republicans that are running here. >> and donald trump has seized on that factor to say he's not a true conservative. charlie, how much will the result of iowa really affect the primaries to come in the early states? does that depend entirely on how well trump does? >> it's not always predictive otherwise ted cruz would have been president or mike huckabee or rick santorum. new hampshire voters are notoriously independent. but as mark just mentioned, donald trump has one fire wall after another coming up after new hampshire. whatever happens in new hampshire, you roll into south carolina, places like nevada where donald trump continues to have a huge margin and the reality is that nikki haley cannot put together a republican

primary majority simply on the basis of democratic and independent votes in those states. so it might, she might come out with some momentum to new hampshire but where do you go after new hampshire? what is the scenario? it's very difficult to see that. >> well, mark murray, charlie sykes, thanks to both of you. and speaking of new hampshire, the caucus spotlight next return to the nation first primary in new hampshire and nikki haley's top surrogate governor and how will the vote in iowa affect the make or break new hampshire primary, next. make or break new hampshire primary, next. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports." watching "andrea mitcl reports. >> the voices of americans who say we want a better day, we're going to make it happen. god bless america, let's do this. this

with just hours to go before iowa republicans begin to caucus tonight, former president trump holds a commanding lead in our new nbc news des moines register poll. it shows nikki haley in second place for the first time, but still 28 points behind trump. and some soft spots in her support. ali vitali joins us now from des moines, iowa. ali, you spoke with haley yesterday. what challenges is she facing

and what is she saying about her second place challenger? >> they're brushing off concern, andrea, about low enthusiasm even though that could be one of the soft spots in her support. it's probably going to be essential to have supporters with enthusiasm to even get out in these elements, but while the campaign is brushing that off, they're also brushing off the focus of ron desantis in north carolina, new hampshire and nevada. haley being clear when i asked her about his strategy about going to south carolina next. this is what she said. watch. >> i mean, he's only played in iowa, he's invisible in new hampshire. in south carolina. he's fourth and fifth place in both of those. i welcome him to south carolina but we're headed to new hampshire. that's the next state to vote. somebody might want to tell him that. >> and of course, nikki haley herself heavily focused on new hampshire because there are some polls that show her there within

striking distance of former president trump. her hope here in iowa, andrea, is to be able to notch a strong second place finish so she can knock desantis effectively out of the contest and underscore the narrative that she's been trying to establish this entire time, which is that it's haley versus trump heading into new hampshire. >> ali, thanks so much for setting it up. joining us now is the governor of new hampshire who is a major supporter of nikki haley. governor, welcome. good to see you. >> thank you. good to see you. >> in our new nbc news poll as we've just been saying, nikki hail will has moved into second place. that's the good news. the bad news is when you dig deeper into that poll, only 9% of her supporters are extremely enthusiastic about her. ann -- >> there's only two people who set expectations for iowa.

ron desantis and donald trump. they said they were going to win iowa. nikki has never had expectations. she's connecting with voters. at the end of the day, it's all about getting out the vote. you want to get as many folks to those polls. if you're sitting at home waiting for donald trump to be defeated in iowa, go out, caucus for nikki haley. republican, democrat, anyone can go caucus for nikki haley. we just want everybody to get out there and vote. that's the opportunity. trump doesn't lose any other way than at the ballot box. he's again leading in iowa. that shouldn't be a surprise to anybody, but ron has faded. it's really a two-person race between nikki and trump and that's what we were going for pm coming out of iowa. >> in the same poll, nikki haley had only 12% from evangelicals compared to 51% for donald trump. 22% for desantis. that has helped him, trump, to paint her as not a true

conservative. and she's got more support from people who say that if she were in the race, they might vote for biden. so what does that say about nikki haley? is she a true conservative going into new hampshire? >> well, of course, she's a true conservative and the fact donald trump is attacking her says a lot. he's afraid of her. he knows this a two-person race which is why he's attacking her so strongly. her polls are just going up. they're not going down. she's the only candidate with momentum over the last month both in new hampshire and in iowa and even some of the polls in south carolina where she just keeps rising in the polls. they've all stalled. so the fact this has turned from a campaign and a candidate into a real movement, right. it's something that gets people excited. something where people say i don't care how cold it is in iowa. we're going to go caucus for nikki haley. not just to galvanize the republican party, but you bring healing to the country.

you can't complain about what happens in the general election if you don't play in the caucuses in iowa and the primary here in new hampshire. and those are the two stops. ron's not even going to come back to new hampshire is our understanding. he's kind of ignoring it. going off to south carolina. kind of a strange strategy. completely given up on the state indicating it's just that two-person race. if you can get it down to two people before super tuesday, clearly that's going to be the opportunity. now it becomes a 50-50 proposition. right? can trump really hold at 47, 46, 47%, is that enough to get him over the hump to win super tuesday states if there's only two people in the race. the math says it isn't but the fact we've even gotten here when no one said we could has defied expectations. >> the haley campaign has launched a new ad in new hampshire. let's take a look. >> the two most disliked politicians in america. trump and biden. both are consumed by chaos.

negativity and grievances of the past. the better choice for a better america? nikki haley. >> she doesn't even mention desantis. >> why should she? again, andrea, it's a two-person race. no one's thinking about ron. he's not playing in new hampshire. he's going to get crushed in south carolina and this win he promised in iowa is not coming to fruition and he's falling way behind. when you see that ad, you see donald trump holding up a bible. looks like the guy has never held the good book before. when you look at what nikki has brought to the table from conservative values, what she's done for south carolina, her understanding of international issues and most importantly, she gets it done. we can all agree on policy, but nikki has a record of always getting things done. working with congress to secure the border. working on health reform. this is where voters finally

have a say and say we're going to move forward, future looking. she brings all of that to the table which is why her numbers will surging. everyone else is in the backseat. everyone else is getting attacked. she's resilient and the numbers show that. >> this is a tougher ad on donald trump than anything she's shown previously so there is one of the criticisms of her is that she's not been consistent. she says one thing in one state and another in another. you said in the general election, if it came down to president biden or donald trump, you would support trump. the former president is posting about you today writing his name is chris snunu and he is now the unpopular governor of new hampshire who endorsed nikki bird brain haley and will never beat the democrat party, instead of democratic, he's chris christie without the weight. he does lots of television and

just spews out false fact after false fact. just came out on twitter. i wanted to give you a chance to respond. are you still going to vote for trump? >> who cares. i'm pretty proud i am one of the more popular governors in the country. it's new hampshire. we do things a little differently. it's about connectivity. not just coming in, flying in, doing a big rally and flying out. it's connecting with voters and that's what nikki's doing. again, donald trump is scared. he wouldn't be writing any of that if he wasn't scared to death about the fact he's look at his own internal numbers. he was told by the whole world and press he was going to run away with iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina. and especially here in new hampshire, we're challenging that. we always wanted to get a strong second and i feel confident we're going to be there, but now to defy what everyone said was possible and potentially beat him, it's a long shot to be sure, but she's doing it.

numbers are rising every single day. trump is scared and he should be. he's not strong. he's scared to be called on his record. he won't get on a debate stage with her. he won't do any of the things you need to do to connect with voters. the sign of the times for donald trump. the beginning of the end. >> so yes or no if he turns out to have the nomination against joe biden, would you still vote for him? >> sure. i'm going to support the republican nominee. guys, look at what biden has done. this bidenomics is crushing middle american families here in new hampshire. everything from fuel prices to supply chain issues. the border is a serious issue. you have democrats turning on joe biden now because of his complete dereliction of duty on the southern border. so, no, of course we're going to support the republican nominee. that's how bad joe biden is. he's actually made it so donald trump can actually challenge him because he's done such a bad job. but the strength is nikki haley. she would beat biden by ten, 15 points. bring all these other opportunities for america.

she can actually get stuff done and work with folks. yeah, look. at the end of the day, i think my job is just to give nikki a strong of a shot, open as many doors as we can here in new hampshire, but she's earning it. she's earning this stuff herself. she's doing a tremendous job in iowa beating expectations, in new hampshire, so that lead to a lot of opportunity in the coming months for this election. >> thank you very much, governor. >> you bet. >> and iowa strong. hawk eye state voters preparing to brave the elements tonight as the first republican votes of 2024 are being cast. this is "andrea mitchell reports." you're watching msnbc. s "andreal reports. you're watching msnbc. >> how could would it have to be for you to not go caucus on monday night? >> an astronomical probably 80 below. >> 80 below? >> yeah. >> all right. that about settles it. yeah. >> all right that about settles it. running this kitchen. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon.

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bring good jobs back home, and build affordable housing. now he's running for the senate. our economy, our democracy, our planet. this is why we fight. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message. the iowa caucuses, the caucusgoers are getting their first say in the election as the nation finds itself in a deep political and cultural divide. so what can the caucuses tell us about the mood of the country? joining us now, vaughn hillyard who is in fort dodge, iowa. peter baker and "new york times" national political correspondent, lisa, who's in des moines. so, vaughn, first to you. no one knows iowa better than

you. your first trip was there in 2014. how are the campaigns adapting to the blast of extreme winter weather? is there concern it might keep some voters at home? >> because of you, andrea, i can say that i have since chosen to spend a healthy amount of my life the last decade here in iowa and i can also tell you this morning was the for the i got my car stuck in snow and had no place to go and somehow we were able to make it to fort dodge here. we are going to be hearing from a cast of maga figures, if you will. marjorie taylor greene, matt gaetz, jim jordan, are having one final campaign event this afternoon for donald trump. when we're driving through the streets, we're continuing to see the plows out there. ice is still very much a concern. before this campaign, you're looking at 1600 precincts across the state of iowa. you're looking at negative 35

degree windchills. the trump campaign is confident they have that even if there's a dropoff, they believe they have supporters largely premised on the fact that donald trump has made the case to them for years they need to win big because they believe elections are stolen from them. i want to let you listen to ashley and norm. two folks i talked to outside of trump's rally here yesterday. >> why in these conditions? >> why not? >> it's just cold. >> how likely it is you think donald trump wins tomorrow? >> 100%. >> yeah, it's 100%. second place is what we all wonder about. >> some folks that are not here in iowa, they question will trump supporters turn out on caucus day. >> absolutely. >> i live three blocks from my caucus location. i can walk to it if i want to. >> it's two miles. i'll be there. >> andrea, just a few minutes ago in a local radio interview here in iowa, donald trump predicted he will have an

historic victory. the largest percentage margin more a republican here in the iowa caucus is bob dole back in 1988 when he won by 12 percentage points. >> and lisa, you report that across iowa, voters are in a really grim mood. they talk casually about the prospect of world war 3, civil unrest. the nation coming apart at the seams. that seems to be echoing trump's rhetoric. >> right. i mean, look. this isn't my first iowa caucus. like everyone on this panel. and normally what this is about is issues like healthcare or taxes or education. things, foreign policy maybe where the country's at war. things that are sort of in the realm of what we consider ordinary political issues. this has felt really different. people are talking to me about how divided the country is. a feeling that democracy is teetering in some way.

we could be pulling apart. they're worried about unrest after the election. that's something i hear a lot. and part of that is coming from the candidates. as you point out, these are issues that donald trump talks about a lot. he mentions world war 3. he sort of raises the stakes of all of this. he is of course under indictment. 91 counts. so there are these unusual things happening but it's also the stakes that biden has set for this election. he has said this is a referendum on democracy and whether that remains a sacred value. so you hear that coming through from these voters. i think 2020 was a race really marked by anxiety. anxiety about the pandemic. the uncertain economy. this one feels to be much more based in fear or dread. people are not excited about this presidential contest. >> which echoes a lot of things peter that we've been hearing and seeing in the polling that people are just not happy with either of the candidates, but certainly in iowa, it seems as

though donald trump has found his base and expanded it to evangelicals and to college educated republicans. groups that did not vote for him last time. >> yeah, iowa is actually ground central for trumpism right now. he in fact does have a particular stronghold on the base there. that's a place where he has demonstrated a connection with you know, poor republican voters. the question really isn't going to be iowa. the question is where he wins after this. can he translate a big win into unstoppable momentum heading into new hampshire or start feeling pressure from nikki haley. iowa and new hampshire are not the same. a lot of people win iowa and lose new hampshire. it may not be over just because it looks like it's going to be a blowout. but obviously the blowout helps him move forward with a contests to come with steam behind him.

>> thank you all so much. and the expectations game. coming up, top performer campaign strategist coming in to talk about how republican candidates are preparing for their next stop on the campaign trial. this is "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc. l. this is "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc complete nutrition you need... ...without the stuff you don't. so, here's to now. boost. - i got the cabin for three days. it's gonna be sweet! what? i'm 12 hours short. - have a fun weekend. - ♪ unnecessary action hero! unnecessary. ♪ - was that necessary? - no. neither is a blown weekend. with paycom, employees do their own payroll so you can fix problems before they become problems. - hmm! get paycom and make the unnecessary, unnecessary. - see you down the line. (man) mm, hey, honey.

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week's big new hampshire primary and after that, nevada, south carolina. the big question is what comes next for ron desantis and nikki hailey? is there a path forward for an anti trump candidate? with us now, susan and communications director for hillary clinton's 2016 campaign, jennifer palmeri. and former chief of staff to mike pence, mark short. mark, let's talk about what happens tonight. depending on what happens tonight, what are the paths forward for haley and desantis if haley does come in second but not as strong a second and desantis is a strong third or how do you see this all playing? >> well, i think there's probably more at stake for desantis tonight. he has put a lot more into iowa. i still think despite the latest des moines nbc poll, i think desantis is second because of a stronger ground operation there than haley.

haley probably finishes a close second or maybe first in new hampshire. ultimately, there's still a fire wall in south carolina. trump's winning by 25 points. super tuesday states all line for up trump. i would imagine after we get through south carolina, we'll know who our nominee is for the republican party. >> and the ground game in iowa where desantis went to all 99 counties. he's been so strong. what's the strategy after iowa? the governor said he's not going to come to new hampshire, but he hasn't said that. desantis has not said he's not going there. >> let's not forget, chris christie said he was running all the way to the end until he dropped out the next day. an interesting thing about desantis, i actually think he may pull out a win tonight, not just because of his ground game.

we haven't talked about it much. governor kim reynolds. she has an operation. she endorsed him. she's in a position if he doesn't come in second of looking really, really bad. my guess is he goes silent for a few days and we hear from him in florida saying he's suspending his campaign. >> and jan, iowa has -- chosen the gop nominee in more than two decades. i guess the last person to win iowa republican caucus winner to go on and get the nomination was george a lot of losing candidates in the past. why is this different at all given that donald trump was previously president? how important is it tonight for the race ahead and what if he goes over 50%? does that lock it up? >> i think if he goes over 50%, that's a big sign of strength. what i think about is look at the next eight weeks, andrea.

you have four primary contests, iowa, new hampshire, nevada and south carolina. alongside of that we have a lot of court appearances from trump, decisions on colorado before the supreme court, the decision on his immunity plea, his trial may actually start on march 4th, the jan 6th trial in d.c. super tuesday is march 5th. if he looks weaker in ohio and new hampshire than expected, all of a sudden, his strategy about making the courthouse the centerpiece of his communications strategy, that might look like a bad idea. he might appear to be weaker in other ways. then i'm looking at what is his turnout like? what's the enthusiasm like for him? haley's support, a lot of democrats voting for haley. i'm also thinking about is trump taking a lot of lumps from

haley, chris christie. his message was so powerful the other day, anti-trump message. the messages people are hearing may not prevent donald trump from becoming the republican nominee, but they could hurt him in the general election. joe biden is doing great versus donald trump in new hampshire. i think that may be because new hampshire have heard a lot of anti-trump messaging. i'm looking more about how does the next eight weeks shape the general election. >> at an event in iowa, let's listen to what desantis had to say about nikki haley as part of his final pitch to the voters. >> the fact of the matter is, i'm the only one that could possibly compete with donald trump in a republican primary. she cannot win conservative or core voters, republicans. she's wining support from the other party which is fine in a general. >> marc, do you agree with that assessment? >> not entirely.

the reality is our party has not left donald trump. in a general election, everybody looks at these what-if scenarios. i think the polling has indicated that nikki haley is stronger. as jen said, i think those are protest votes for democrats and independents looking for a different nominee than trump. they're not going to go with nikki haley in a general election. i think some of the polling is skewed at this point. >> to susan del percio, when you look at the republican field, is there n a appetite for an anti-trump candidate? we've seen with a new ad today that nikki haley is tougher against trump in a new hampshire ad. she hasn't been that tough. she's evolved in the iowa campaign. the base support seems to be so solidly behind trump. >> it is behind trump because neither desantis or haley has shown a real contrast between them and donald trump and, in fact, has not gone after donald

trump the way you would in any other situation or the way desantis and haley are going after each other now. this is right now donald trump's party. he is the nominee unless he does something to take himself out of it. at the end of the day, i think we look maybe nikki haley does well in new hampshire and there's a lot of energy behind her. again, super tuesday with rule changes of winner-take-all in several states, it ends there on march 5th. >> jen palmieri, didn't chris christie prove there's no appetite among republican voters for an anti-trump candidate? >> yeah, but there is among general election voters, right? i think that is what -- if haley sitting -- coming out of iowa, going into new hampshire, people are going to be going after him. that is -- and presumably for

the next eight weeks. i don't know that that's going to hurt him. that could soften him up for the general election. it also shows you what kind of messages are working with people. 60% of the republican party is solidly behind donald trump right now. presumably that means 40% is not. republicans are loyal voters. most of those people will go home and vote for him. some measure of them will not. i think the biden campaign is looking at that tranche of voters to see over the next eight weeks in particular how can they bring some of those to his side. >> marc, basically, are you surprised that mike pence whom you worked with so closely had this sprawling evangelical base that trump is getting the evangelical vote in iowa? >> i think that is surprising. even in 2016 that vote went to ted cruz. i don't think there's any doubt through the four years of his presidency, donald trump solidified that vote behind him.

whether or not it's the supreme court nominees or the dobbs decision or other matters. i will tell you i think in many of those cases many of those decisions are being pushed by more conservative people. i think that support is locked in for him. i think it's going to be hard for another candidate to break that apart right now. >> we'll see you because the voters have a say in this. so does the weather. marc short, thank you, susan and jen. that does it for this caucus day edition of "andrea mitchell reports." thanks for being with us. remember to follow the show on social media @ your stuff. @ "chris jansing reports" starts after this quick break. "chris jansing reports" starts after this quick break don't let rsv take your breath away. protect yourself from rsv... ...with abrysvo, pfizer's rsv vaccine.

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