have got this ability to erase it and change the default. >> i don't know how they will read it, but i imagine you'd have to go pretty close to the words. barbara mcquaid, thank you so much. and that does it for me today. stay right here with msnbc to catch special coverage of the iowa caucus. rachel maddow leads analysis with steve kornacki breaking down the results. it is a big election night so of course he is there. i'll join the coverage from right here in manchester, new hampshire. that is tonight beginning at 7:00 p.m. and special election coverage with jen psaki starts right now. welcome to msnbc's special coverage of the iowa caucuses. i'm jen psaki.

it is 4:00 here in new york, 3:00 p.m. in des moines where in just a few hours, the doors will open at caucus locations across the state. and the first votes will be cast in the 2024 election. voters going to the polls today in 1600 precincts across all of iowa's 99 counties will do it in some of the most brutal conditions imaginable. tonight could be the coldest iowa caucus ever. windchills could gets a low as 45 degrees farenheit, that is freezing. that brutal cold is putting a damper on what is normally a frenzy of campaigning. trump campaign and haley campaign canceled three events, but it doesn't mean candidates aren't asking people to get out and vote. ex-president said even if you vote and then pass away, it is worth it. yes? he really said that. there is no early voting and no mail-in ballot, so all of it comes to turnout tonight. the last nbc "des moines register" poll released last

night shows trump with a commanding 28 point lead. if he wins by anything close to that amount, that would shatter a record held by gop presidential candidate bob dole who won iowa by 13 points in 1996. that brings us to one of the big questions tonight. who will come in second place. one of the most interesting questions of tonight. the next contest is of course the new hampshire primary. and who will go into that with momentum. both nikki haley and ron desantis are hoping for a better than expected second place finish. and for desantis, who has visited all the 9 coucounties, stakes are particularly high.th stakes are particularly high. whether he can justify staying in the race. but let's not lose sight of what a trump win in iowa would mean. if the polls are correct from this weekend, iowa republicans could set in motion a primary

that leads to the nomination of an ex-president who is facing 91 felony counts in four different jurisdictions. 17 of those for trying to overturn a free and fair election through any means including violence. and an ex-president who said he would be a dictator on day one who if elected would spark serious doubts about the survival of our democracy. and to kick it off with me here is my former boss david plouffe. and also co-host of the weekend here on msnbc, michael steele. always fun to hang out. and amy walter is joining us. and also claire mccaskill is joining us. and let's start out in des moines, though that is where everything is happening in a couple hours. and correspondent ali vitali has

been there braving all the temperatures. so i know that you are with the haley campaign right now. how are they feeling about everything going on tonight? >> reporter: you're right i've been following the haley campaign and also bracing the icy temperatures here. and that will be one of the key things that we're watching for tonight. because the old trope as you all know, it all comes down to turnout, which is true, but hard to predict what turnout looks like when you are at a negative 30 windchill across the state. so certainly that is one of the things that will unfold in realtime for all of us. for the haley campaign part, they sort of feel like they are in a good position tonight. it is a win/win regardless of how they place. of course they want to come in second, because they say that would be a boom moment within this caucus and within this larger primary. but if they come in third and the margin is pretty tight with ron desantis, they sort of feel like that is what the original expectation was anyway.

for haley though, second place clearly preferred because it allows them to dispense with the notion that ron desantis has a continuously viable path to the nomination and instead it allows the haley campaign to underscore a narrative that they have been driving towards the entire time, which is that they want to seem like a one-on-one race between her and donald trump by the time get on the ground in new hampshire. >> i love all these closing arguments. it is also kind of justification if what you see in the last "des moines register" poll. everybody is spinning a lot out there. and i know that you spoke with nikki haley yesterday. what is her case to voters, what did she tell you? >> reporter: for voters, she has just consistently told them she wants to poibts to the idea that there are some polls that show her more competitive in a general election against president biden than the former president trump. but that is an argument tough to make in a primary that is so driven by the cultive

personality of donald trump. and so she is regularly saying that she liked the trump policies and believes that he was the right president for that time, but she also seeks to make a generational change argument. i think that is one of the interesting pieces here. as i talk to haley voters, many are ex-trump voters if i'm talking to republicans, but if we're watching the coalition she's trying to build, there is a pretty large contingent of independents and democrats who could make up her coalition into second or third place tonight. that will be interesting to watch especially as it plays out on the ground in new hampshire where you know well that is also likely to be a big part of the group that she brings in. my big question to you yesterday is can you win the republican nomination with the backing of independents and democrats just as much as you have republicans.

she made an argument that that is exactly the kind of big tent that her party should be trying to build. but i think we all know that is sort of a pre-trump way of thinking. everything that we think about within this political sphere is changed because of trump's role in this race. i mean, in theory, we should be talking about how ron desantis is running away with the caucus because he invested in ground game, he invested in early, put all of his resources here, notched all almost all the endorsements that you can think of. doing almost double the events that someone like nikki haley has done and certainly far and away more than trump has done. and yet trump is not just winning but winning by miles and miles. i think that that is a pretty stunning rebuke of the traditional way that you are supposed to win iowa. >> no question. and this question of can she compete and win if she doesn't expand her coalition beyond independents, never trumpers and

democrats, i think we all know the answer to that question. we'll let you get back to your reporting. look forward to talking to you later. and right now we'll go to our panel. let's talk about what we just heard. i think it is interesting to me, just hearing how these candidates are pre-spinning what the outcome could be tonight, and there is a lot to watch. turnout. not necessarily who wins first. we know that. who places second. >> i think it comes down to the margin. let's say trump were to get under 50. i think that there will be some sense that he didn't match his numbers in the polls. i don't think it matters that much honestly whether haley comes in second or third because desantis is dead after tonight no matter what. he has nothing going in new hampshire. so i think at the end of the day in reality it this is a two person race after tonight.

if haley comes in second, that is a nice talking point. you spend a year basically on one state, iowa. then at break neck pace state after state. let's say haley is able to beat trump new hampshire. and then her home state looms. >> and they are much more like iowa. >> yeah, so it is basically you have never never and south carolina in february and then super tuesday is looming out there. and the question is -- let's say haley is able to do well enough tonight to help her win new hampshire next week, and then in those next six weeks can she get to the point where she can stare down trump one-on-one. and in some states where they allow democrats and independents, which is not all, get 50%. so i think at the end of the day, yeah, that is the big question, whether desantis gets out tonight or what, you will get four or five in new

hampshire. if you are haley, you'd rather have him get zero. but this is a two person race. >> let's talk about desantis for a moment. you've talked to the campaigns where it is like okay, my friend, you've gone to all 99 counties. desantis' team is we're in it to win it, we're in it to get to south carolina and new hampshire. what are the conversations behind the scenes and do you think that he will still be in after tonight? >> it is a good question. i think on paper the answer is no, he's not in it. but as david knows, there is an attitude about running particularly for the candidate that is not a decision that any of us will make or not anyone on his staff. if he still thinks he has juice to go to new hampshire or south carolina, that he can make up some back end piece after having spent no time in either of those

locations, guess what he will do? he will stay in the race. two, if he gets out of the race, what does he do? does he do like all the other men who have gotten out of the race and kept their mouth shut, or does endorse nikki haley and sort of create a wind for her sails. >> or does he endorse trump. >> or does he endorse trump. number three, does he look at south carolina and nikki haley and go, damn, she's down 30 points in horne state, so, yeah, there is juice to play there. just say okay, we'll take the hit in new hampshire and we're just going to mess up things in south carolina. four, all those scenarios, donald trump is still the man. at some point if nikki does catch fire, in what universe does donald trump play ball with nikki haley and say you know, you're beating me, i'm just going to let you beat me? >> no, in fact he kind of warned that that is exactly the opposite of what he will do. i want to bring in amy and

claire. i want to peel off of something david said which is about trump and getting more than 50%. because there is this question of like what defines success for him. even though this is not hardly the end of the race, not the end of the primary, but you wrote a piece about this. so give us a sense of what we should be watching with trump's numbers specifically. >> that's right. margin is not as interesting as whether he gets 50% plus. because the argument from the haley and desantis wing has been donald trump has a core group of right or die voters but it is not as big as it looks. maybe it is 35% on a good day and maybe in iowa 40%. but there is a bigger coalition out there of never trump and sometimes trump voters that if we get to a one-on-one contest, iowa has always been about winnowing it down, there are enough of those voters out there

to be able to beat him 51% to 45%, whatever. if he is getting over 50% in a state by the way that he lost in 2016, in a state where, yes, in some ways it is very much friendly territory for him, it is one of the few state that's improved his margin from 2016 to 2020 in the general election, but as ali pointed out in her standout, it is also a state that having the evangelical leadership behind you is supposed to be a game changer. that is what ron desantis has had. it has done very little to help him. the evangelical vote split in the last election and absolutely aligned behind donald trump this time. and so i agree with everything that has been laid out here, which is the challenge for nikki haley, i remember i was at her kickoff event in south carolina -- was that last sgleer it is all running together.

>> a long campaign cycle. >> it was like the spring i think of last year. the hit on her from especially the republican leaning conservative media was she sounds like a throwback candidate, a pre-trump candidate. and that is kind of what this race at least to this point assuming the polls are correct, assuming she's the one that moves on, not desantis, but it feels like it is the last gasp of the kind of candidate that republicans used to nominate. you look at the general election polling and there is no doubt she's the strongest candidate to face joe biden. but remember, these republican primary voters, they don't believe that to be the case. they still think that donald trump is the strongest. and so many of them, they picked donald trump in 2016 because they had been told by the leadership, by the elites that john mccain 2008, he was our strongest candidate. even though they didn't really

love him. same with mitt romney in 2012. they weren't big fans of mitt romney, but he is the most electable today. and so they were disappointed and now they are going with their heart and donald trump still has their heart. >> maybe nikki haley was born in the wrong era or decade. claire, there is a lot to watch tonight even with trump being so far ahead in the polls. to amy's point, one of the interesting things to me, nikki haley has kind of a marco rubio support base a little bit. polk county, scott county, eastern part of the state. those are places where it is more he had indicated voters who might be more inclined to support her. what are you kind of watching tonight to see if haley has a good night? >> first of all, you have to understand that margins matter as david said, but you know what else matters coming out of iowa and tumbling into this break neck speed that david talked about is money.

if you look at the money here, it is astounding how much money desantis and nikki haley have spent, around $35 million all in. so $70 million. and trump has spent $11 million. and they have not really moved the needle. and i think that the he have vote is another thing to look at carefully. he put out a video last week that really offended a lot of evangelical leaders because it was a video that basically said that trump is god-like. and there were some leaders in the state that said that made them uncomfortable. but those he have leaders may have the same problem that union leaders have sometimes. that is, they may feel one way, but the flock may vote another. >> it is such an important point. the whole question of whether endorsements even matter is going to probably be one we're discussing later given ron desantis has had a lot of them. let's bring in vaughn hillyard

who is driving it sounds like. well, glad you are not drive egg but in the passenger seat in between trump campaign events. you're going from fort dodge to des moines. so tell us, claire was talking about the evangelical vote, definitely been a big change since 2016 certainly for trump. tell us what feels different to you this time around. >> reporter: it is telling. if we're talking about the evangelical vote, if you listen to some of the prayers that the pastors deliver during the invocation at trump's rallies, they sound so trumpian in the way that it would have been unfathomable coming out of the mouth of a preacher eight years ago. orwellian tyranny that is taking over the united states. this idea that, you know, that evil has come on to the united states and it is donald trump. one pastor referring to him as

the second coming and a forehad doeg of what is to come if gets back in the white house. there was 22% of evangelicals here, and looking at our poll , 51%. and look at the stars of the republican party out here on the road. we just left fort dodge, and it was the, if i may, the maga superstar shuttle that came to town about two hours north of des moines. it was marjorie taylor greene, matt gaetz, kari lake, jim jordan, byron donalds, billy long, a cast of trump loyalists who are frankly the most popular figures in the republican party today. and they were the ones delivering the closing message. so that is what is compelling and what has changed these last eight years. >> such a change from the presidential campaigns i worked on, last ones were against

romney and mccain. seems quaint. and campaigns have canceled events because of the weather. what is the expectation of how weather could play and who could it hurt most here? >> reporter: we have sunny skies here today, but it has remained so deadly cold. negative windchill expected this evening of negative 35 that the snow itself is largely not melted. here on the main highways, snowplows have all but cleared the roads, but a lot of the side roads and through the smaller towns even medium size towns, there is still a layer of ice over most of the streets. and so that is really going to be the concern of just especially for older folks of being able to get in the car, make it to the caucus sites and back over black ice. donald trump has often said that his supporters will walk over broken glass. but will they walk over black

ice, that is what we'll have to see. the campaign is offering rides to their supporters if they call up. they believe that they have built up an operation unlike that of eight years ago when it is haphazard. this time around they believe they have identified a share of the republican electorate that will be able to give them a consequential win. >> the organizing aspect is important. and we'll take a quick break. vaughn hillyard, safe travels. and when we come back, this weekend's closing arguments from the republican candidates, ranging from please don't forget about me to just stay alive and vote, and that you can die, pretty dark. we'll talk more with our guests about that with just a few short hours go. plus donald trump will be trying to fit a campaign stop in this week, not new hampshire, not in pennsylvania, not on fox news, but in a new york courtroom. the strategy behind that decision, just ahead. and still to come, president biden marking this martin luther

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we're going to do well. and i think, look, i -- i appreciate being the underdog. i like how people try to say -- i do better in those situations and i think i have a record of doing well as the underdog. but we'll do well. >> we feel it, we know that this is moving in the right

direction. and to me, the only numbers that matter are the ones that we're going up and everybody else went down. that shows we're doing the right thing. i think iowa will decide tomorrow. >> you will be first in the nation. so brave the weather and go out and save america. because that is what you are doing. >> three candidates, three closing messages in the waning hours of caucusing in iowa. a lot of spinning too. ron desantis appears to be embracing the underdog narrative. because how else can he spin it when polls have him firmly in third place. and nikki haley's closing statement is all about momentum. presented with concerns about a lack of enthusiasm among her support, haley suggested tonight will prove she's the clear alternative to donald trump. as for the disgraced ex-president himself, you heard his closing message. weirdest and creepiest and darkest of them all, even if you vote, then die, it will be worth

it. and then there is trump's most targeting messaging. listen to what he said about nikki haley this weekend. >> i'm working for you and she's working for a lot of other people, people that don't necessarily love our country so much. you will find out a lot about her in the next short period of time. but she's starting to fade as people find out. >> very mysterious there. claire, i know trump says a lot of crazy things every day, but i do think we have to start with what he said there. you could say it is sort of a little threatening, but basically to me i hear it as i'm going to come get you if you come close to me. how did you hear it? >> the irony of this guy saying that she's assumed by people who don't love america and he is besties with putin and kim jung-un and erdogan and all of the folks that are autocrats and

freedom haters and despots and frankly murderous thugs. he has a rogue of horrible people behind him. even china. he wants to talk about nikki haley and china. he loves xi. just loves him. so i really think that haley's best argument is that she's a new face. people always like change. you know, we keep talking about a rematch. it has only happened about seven or eight times in our country that the same two candidates have run against each other again. but in this instance, they both have been president. and this is really old faces, old folks. and haley will try to be the next generation, the new face, and at the same time making fun of desantis for being the minute any me of trump. she's running an ad saying to

desantis with who is your daddy referring to trump.she's runnin desantis with who is your daddy referring to trump. so she's doing some interesting things that are negative in regards to trump more so than she ever has before. she may be getting serious about actually running against him. >> and some of that interestingly enough is helping biden in new hampshire. but back to trump. amy, another thing that he likes do, we've seen over the past several cycles, is kind of claim fraud whink things get too close for comfort. i want to play something he recently said and get your thoughts. >> so important that you get out and vote. so important that you watch other communities. because we don't want this election stolen from us. we don't want this election stolen. i hear these horror shows, and we have to make sure that this election is not stolen from us and is not taken away from us. everybody knows what i'm talking about. >> the only way we're going to

lose this election is ifs the election is rigged. remember that. >> so that was actually past times's claimed fraud. but he did post this morning nikki just said on "fox & friends" that she's up in the polls but i'm beating her by 57%. not exactly. but what's up? one thing is that she's up to something, but how did you hear it and do you think that this is something like he could have up his sleeve if anyone gets too close for comfort for him? >> yeah, you know, remember in 2016, he never claimin fact he ted cruz that cheated. so this is sort of par for the course. but at the same time, you know,

trump campaign itself is running a pretty traditional campaign i would say. you know, for the folks sitting in -- on this panel, all of whom have been through campaigns, they know that if you are the frontrunner and you see somebody coming up close to you, of course you will unload everything -- every piece of opo you have on that candidate going forward to make sure they don't get much traction. and so they have already started running ads up in new hampshire, making that link i think as claire mccaskill said with china, trying to argue that she's part of that globalist insider elite class, that she won't look out for regular folks. so i think the advertising itself. this is always the challenge for the trump campaign, which is the campaign itself is actually running a very smart strategic playbook. the candidate himself does not

ever stick to script. so that is where you can do all the great ground work, but at the end of the day, what people remember is what the candidate said, not how the campaign actually performed and what their ideal message would have been. >> sometimes people do remember their local organizer in fort dodge or something, but we were just talking about this during the break. trump's campaign to amy's point is better run by all accounts than last time. it is a little better organized. what kind of a factor do you think that is here? >> it makes a difference on the margins. i will say if the trump campaign is providing rides to caucus locations, i'm sure they are one-way rides. >> grandma, you find your way back. >> yeah, no question about that. so it matters. and i think that it will matter more kind of post new hampshire. if trump loses new hampshire, no doubt his core message will be it was stolen from me. nikki is in league with the

democrats. so i think we have to prepare for that. what is interesting, desantis' closing message is terrible as his whole campaign has been. it is all about polls and underdog. >> awkward. >> and haley talking momentum i guess is okay. but she is starting to differentiate more. that is where she has to get. her speech tonight will be a big moment. and only way america doesn't have a biden/trump rematch is if i'm the nominee. trump can't win. and so i think we have to watch how crisp that gets. >> and the other night in the debate, she basically said i wish i was on the stage with trump because that is who i'm running against. she's been trying to set up the race against her. so if you were talking to them, what would you tell them they should be saying tonight? >> i think that i would pivot off of what david just said and make it clear that not only do i have the momentum, but i'm the only person and you all know it,

you all know it, that can beat joe biden. and this is sort of a double-edged sword for democrats. because the reality of it is, yeah, she will beat joe biden. if she becomes the republican nominee, i don't see her losing the presidential race. for a lot of reasons that democrats don't like joe biden. all right? so this idea that, you know, the age suddenly goes away with nikki haley as the nominee and not trump. so she has a way to really do some nice cutting coming off of tonight to set herself up both for the remainder of this primary, but also beginning to position tactfully for the general election. as david noted there, are prirms down the road where independents and democrats can play. and so she can pivot off of this

and make a very nice case for fall election that i think democrats could actually rue. >> it is more like iowa than new hampshire for a lot of these states. i'm surprised you didn't say this -- >> they are the only ones talking about his age. >> that is what i thought you were going to say. if biden and trump are running against each other, hard to make the argument given they are three years apart. but nikki haley could run on the next gen argument. okay. no one is going anywhere. coming up tomorrow, donald trump once again becomes defendant donald trump. the ex-president's next big trial, that is coming up next. e trial, that is coming up next.

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i know we're focused on the iowa caucus tonight, but tomorrow a trial will begin to decide how much the ex-president must pay e. jean carroll for defaming her. the ex-president has said he plans to attend and testify at the trial. not something that he is required to do. it is something of a campaign tactic at this point for the republican frontrunner. though the judge in new york has barred him from offering any testimony or evidence that he did not sexually assault carroll. remember he doesn't exactly take that kind guidance to heart. he wrote to the judge that he could not attend on wednesday in

order to go to the funeral of melania trump's mother, his mother-in-law. but the request was denied after carroll's lawyers called him out for having a campaign event scheduled in new hampshire the very same day. very awkward and weird perhaps a discussion for a therapist couch. we're back with our panel. so i just want to start, michael, there with just this strategy. right? because he has spent more time in the courtroom the last couple of weeks making his campaign case than he has in iowa. it hasn't hurt him at all. so maybe that is the lesson he's learned. but what do you make of that strategy and -- >> brilliant. > but does it work in a general election? >> it probably will knowing trump. every platform is a platform to produce whatever he wants produced. so if it is a campaign production, we'll do a campaign. if i need a pity party, i'll create a pity party. if i need to blow somebody up

like a prosecutor or judge, guess what, i'll walk out of courtroom and blow them up. >> he is like thanks for the guidance. >> not even so much thanks for the guidance. thanks for the platform. because for donald trump, this is a set, this is a scene in an ongoing drama that he is writing at every turn. and unfortunately get sucked into it and help tell that narrative because, yeah, there is history involved here, there is law involved here, there is constitution and all these other pieces. so we're trying to, you know, be smart about it, but he knows we're all in the same trap and he is setting it every time. so he will show up in that courtroom tomorrow and he will say i'm here to tell my side of it, and he will start. and i guarantee you he will violate the requirements of the court. >> is he like i don't listen to that kind of thing. >> and he will walk out and say they tried to silence me, this judge, that judge. and this is the process. >> so as we all know, he could

be on the verge of locking in the nomination and the broader electorate is much bigger. if you are the biden team, do you hope he keeps doing this courtroom thing? >> let's talk about the primary first. so if trump wins the new hampshire primary next tuesday, i think the election has started. trump is the nominee. let's say haley should win. she shouldn't say it tonight, but i'd say next tuesday you have to take it head-on. do we want to nominate someone who is on trial for paying off porn stars, for being accused of rape, for mounting an insurrection, do you think that person could win? do i think that will get her the nomination? trump is still the huge favorite. in the general election i think that you have to look at it two sets of voters. for swing voters, i think it just reminds enough of them in wisconsin and georgia and arrest

it will help him win. but i think the biden campaign can take advantage of this with swing voters.will help him win. but i think the biden campaign can take advantage of this with swing voters. if haley doesn't take a swing on this, she might as well just get out of the race. the path is narrow as it is, but to me there is something there in terms of setting it up i'm a lot one thacan prevent the rematch you don't want. we all think joe biden is feeble, he was in the basement, and this guy lost to him. so i think there is an argument that she can mount. a narrow path, but it exists. >> what is hard for these candidates i'd say is that they are kind of damned if they do, damned if they don't. so amy, one thing that struck me about the des moines register poll back in december specifically is the large

percentage of people in iowa who seem to hear trump saying i'll be a dictator and be like that is smi guy. so if you are haley, how do you calculate that in terms of needing to differentiaentiate yourself? >> anybody who has run a campaign know this is, you can tell voters what you want to them or you can meet voters where they are. and bottom line is republican voters think that, and this is national polls and also in the iowa register poll, that donald trump is the strongest candidate to beat joe biden. that all the legal cases are bunk. do not believe that he will be treated fairly. so whether he is found guilty or not, they see this is all just a sham. so you can make that case until you are blue in the face, but it won't help. convince voters who already

don't believe that to be the case. and the other thing i would say, and i think this has been the real conundrum, last 2 1/2 years the entire republican establishment from the leadership in the house and senate, all the way through elected officials throughout the country, have said that everything that trump has done or said is okay. january 6. impeachment. all of those opportunities that republicans had two plus years ago to say this isn't okay, we're setting the ground rules, they didn't do. so now you are asking someone like nikki haley to come in after 2 1/2 years of an ecosystem that has not just supported donald trump but has basically written off all of these other liabilities and she's going to single handedly make that case? i don't think that is possible. >> seems like a lot to put on

her shoulders given she should have been born in another decade. claire, you have been in courtrooms and you are a political expert. sort of a fascinating overlap of talents. i think a lot of people are betting, okay, one of these things will get trump. either the politics or the courtroom. and he seems to have no consequences. are there consequences for him ignoring the judges in these courtrooms, do you think it is more likely in the courtroom for there to be consequences or i guess in the political field? >> i have sad news for everybody. i think we need to get it through our thick skulls that if you look at donald trump's polling, and i looked at it over time, do you know when he got the bump, when he began pulling away from the crowd? when he got indicted in new york for paying a porn star. you know when he got stronger? when he got indicted again. and again. and again. this is his campaign.

he is this these courtrooms not because he has to be, because he wants to be. he is talking to that judge in that final argument in his case recently, he wasn't talking because he was trying to get something from the judge. he knew it would hurt him from the judge. he was campaigning. this is his campaign. that the government has overreached and if they do it to him, they can do it to you. and i'm standing in front of them and protecting you. for those of us who has been in a courtroom and understand it is about facts and evidence, this is disgusting. is it disappointing that college educated voters have come back to trump after these indictments? and they have. many college educated voters have decided the government is now going too far. i don't know what happens if he is convicted before november. i do think that he will be the nominee. i don't think haley is going to be able to talk republican voters off the ledge that somehow the facts and evidence support these indictments. i don't think that she'll be

able to. so the question is, will what happen in the courtroom make a difference and will in the long run the independent voters have enough enthusiasm that don't want trump to show up in november and can we keep our coalition together with enthusiasm. >> thank you for some real talk as always from claire mccaskill, amy walter, david plouffe, michael steele. thank you all for spending a bunch of time with me this afternoon. coming up next, historic fundraising call for president biden, as democrats prepare to face a republican challenger. we'll head back out to iowa right after this. this

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as iowa republican caucusgoers prepare to make their choice about the future of their party and possibly this country, not to be too dramatic, president biden spoke to our colleague reverend a sharpton about his decisio to seek the presidency back in 2020. >> i didn't want to get involved down in charlottesville.happened those -- you know, the ku klux klan carrying nazi flag ugly, ugly, ugl people. they t then president who's seeking to be president again what he thought. he said i thought there very good people on both sides. very good people on both sides for god's sake. and that's when i decided i had to run. >> today is martin luther king day and this is all a sharp reminder of the character of the front-runner in the iowa

caucuses and the stakes of the 2024 election. let's bring in democratic senator tina smith of minnesota. i'm assured you're warm out there. you're minnesotan too, so i'm assured you're fine out there. but senator, i wanted to ask you, i spent some time with the biden campaign last week, but take us inside the campaign on a day like today. what are they doing? how are they watching it? how are they consuming all of it? >> well, so yes, i'm here in des moines, and i came south from minnesota to be here. so it's a little chilly, but we'll be fine. i'm really glad to be here. i think that what today is about, first of all, for the biden campaign is to announce the really incredible fund-raising numbers that they announced this morning showing how much enthusiasm there is for the campaign, including i would add huge huge grassroots support for the campaign. so i think that's very much on our minds. but the second thing, which is i think even more important, is today is the first day that republicans will be casting their votes in the primary

election. but overall the choice and the contrast is so clear. donald trump drove the united states economy into the ditch. he left the economy a shambles. and joe biden has created incredible job growth and economic growth. donald trump has said that -- you know, claimed credit for overturning roe vs. wade. and joe biden is committed to protecting women's rights, they decide for themselves about their own reproductive lives. on taxes the contrast could not be more clear. so i think today is a day for those of us who strongly support president biden to be making that contrast and explaining what this election is all about for regular americans who are just beginning to think about the choices ahead. >> and you're definitely doing your part out on the road. you mentioned the fund-raising numbers. today "the new york times" reported those, and others have reported about the fund-raising number but they said, quote, president biden's rtionampaign said on monday that along wh two allied committees itad pulled in $97 million during the

most recen fund-raising . together they entered 2024 with more than $117 million in cash on hand. and jeffrey katzenberg, who just joined you at a press conference earlier today, noted the president has received donations from more than a million people. so what should that tell people about what's in the coffers, the strength of that, and kind of where they are in terms of the ability to invest in states across the country? >> well, i think it really demonstrates that the biden campaign, the biden-harris campaign is so poised to make the argument and define the choice between president biden and whoever the inevitable republican nominee will be. and what that means is to be going state by state, voter by voter, communicating in all the ways that the campaign can to connect with people and to remind them that their voices are powerful and they have an opportunity to use their voices and their votes this coming november. i mean, that's what elections

are all about. while everyone is talking about, you know, polls and so on and so forth, really this is just getting going. and i think the campaign is so well positioned to lead us forward. >> senator smith, you're in iowa of course, which has not been exactly a swing state for some time. there's a lot more registered republicans now even than there were back in 2016. but you've been having conversations with people there. what have you been hearing about the president's message, what excites people, what they want to see more of? >> yeah. what i hear from people, first of all, i think it's just important to realize that regular americans are just coming off of the holidays. in minnesota they are thinking about when is the ice going to be thick enough for them to get out and go ice fishing. i mean, they're living their lives and they are thinking about what's going on in their lives. and so -- but what i hear people talking about is how they want somebody who's going to be looking out for regular people when it comes to the economy. and then that's an opportunity to talk about joe biden's plan

to lower costs. lower prescription drug costs. the work we're doing to crack down on junk fees and go after corporate greed that is driving up consumer prices at the grocery stores. when you get down to it and have a chance to talk to people about them and what's going on in their lives, which joe biden is so good at, i think that is how the connection gets made between voters and this candidate and what is going to be a critically important election. >> and the seconds we have left, how are you feeling about -- how bullish are you feeling about the minnesota campaign and race going on there right now? >> you know, i feel really good about the minnesota campaign. my colleague amy klobuchar will be running for re-election. she will do great. she will be the only statewide election with president biden and vice president harris. we are going to be doing a lot of work. we don't take anything for granted in minnesota. we don't do that anywhere. we work really hard for every single vote. >> senator tina smith, thank you for joining us, for being toeflty and for, you know, being

bold because you're a minnesotan. you came south, as you just said. really appreciate you taking the time. msnbc's special coverage of the iowa caucuses continues after this. doors open throughout the state in just about an hour. we're here for all of it. much more after this quick break. r this quick break. gwen: hi, we've both got a big birthday coming up. so we have a lot of questions about medicare plans. anne: we've got a lot of answers. how can i help? fran: well for starters, do you include hearing benefits? anne: how about a plan with dental, vision and hearing benefits? gwen: i sure like the sound of that! anne: then how does a zero dollar monthly plan premium sound? gwen & fran: ooooooooh! [laughs] avo: if you're new to medicare, call 1-888-65-aetna. we'll walk you through all your coverage and benefit options to help find the right plan for you. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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welcome back to msnbc's special coverage of the iowa caucuses. i'm jen psaki. we're now one hour away from doors opening to the first nominating contest of the 2024 presidential election. tonight republicans in the hawkeye state will gather in local schools, churches, public

libraries, and more to make their choice as to who will face president joe biden in the general election. if the latest polling is any indication, it probably won't be a close race for first plac don't bet on that. the finalbc news/des moines registeroll before tonight's action shows the twice impeached, four times indicted ex-president donald trump with the support of nearly 1/2 of likely republican caucusgoers. a slight dip from polling last month, but still far and above the rest of his republican opponents. trump's former u.n. ambassador nikki haley has 20%. she moved into second for the first time in this last poll. and she's followed by florida governor ron desantis at 16% and entrepreneur vivek ramaswamy with 8%. what is striking and could be a huge indication of what we'll see tonight is voter enthusiasm. because it all boils down to who actually shows up. i mean, the pool of people who vote in the iowa caucus is small. the highest turnout ever was back in 2016, when just under 187,000 people showed up to

caucus. that's a pretty small number of people in relative terms. so even small swings of who shows up could have a big impact on the tcome tonight. cordg to the latest polling, of trump supporters are extremely enthusiastic about voting for him. a stark difference from the 9% of haley voters who say the same about voting for her. and they need enthusiasm because they're going to be battling mother nature as they go out to vote. temperatures in iowa are subzero right now as you've seen from every reporter that's outside. wind chills could get as low as minus 45 degrees fahrenheit. all of the candidates made their own versions of appeals to come out despite the frigid weather. there's a little bit of a diversity of appeals. >> all right. it's caucus time. i know it's cold but we need you out there. wear some layers, bring your i.d. and bring your friends. >> you're never going to have an opportunity where your voice and your vote is going to pack as much of a punch as it will tomorrow night. >> you can't sit home.

if you're sick as a dog you say darling -- even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it. remember. >> even if you vote and then pass away. let's just sit with that for a second. that aside, there are actually big questions tonight about what the outcome may say about the coalition of each candidate. does trump sweep the evangelical vote? he had trouble with them just a couple years ago. can haley expand beyond her base of support among independents, democrats and never trumpers? and can desantis, who put all of his eggs in the iowa basket, do well enough to justify staying in the race? what if anything does it mean for the race for the white house? this is just the beginning. we're going to dig into all of that and more tonight. we're just getting started with special coverage. this hour we are joined by a terrific panel. in a minute former campaign manager for barack obama's 2012 re-election campaign, jim messina will join us. also with us msnbc political analyst democratic strategist and president of brilliant corners research cornell belcher. plus with me at the table msnbc political analyst former obama

white house communications director and co-host of msnbc's "how to win 2024" podcast jennifer palmieri. we just had your co-host on in the last hour. and writer at large for the bulwark and msnbc political analyst tim miller. so let me start with both of you. there's a lot to watch. i know trump is leading by quite a bit. but tim, what are you actually watching for tonight as we look at the results? >> i think how dominant trump is tonight is the number one thing. >> what do you feel good about if you're his team? >> i think if trump's over 50 -- look, i think in the biggest possible picture it is extremely alarming that somebody that attempted a coup in this position is going to be the nominee. that's just stated. right now we're getting into republican strategist brain mode. and if they get over 50, it's like what is even the point of continuing past here? donald trump only had 24 last time in iowa. he'd be more than doubling what he did in 2016 when he won pretty easy. it's not like ted cruz was that close. he went on to win the nomination quite easily.

if he wins with 50 this time, this thing is basically cooked. i think that's the number one thing to watch. obviously then the turnout numbers as we get to all these various caucuses, different parts of the state. you know, maybe nikki haley benefits from the fact she's on the champagne track and her fans -- >> as opposed to the beer track? >> yeah, her fans' cars have remote start. it makes it easier for them to get out there. i think that she only has 9% excited support but she does have support from people that have seat heaters in their car. >> you could be like only 9% enthusiastic but still show up. i think a lot of people aren't enthusiastic because they're democrats. it doesn't mean they won't show up. they're not necessarily enthusiastic about her at a fundamental level. >> it's true. but they still have to kind of get out of their door in freezing cold temperatures. to be a democrat and think this is worth my time doing that. >> i've also heard from people in iowa that they're pent up and anxious to get out of their house. >> this is a big social outing at the church. the 50% thing is interesting because the last, if i'm correct here, the last person who came close to that, it was like 41%.

i mean, nobody's ever come to 50%. >> 41 is the high with w. and he only won by 10. steve forbes had 31. trump's going to swamp that. >> it would be significant. >> steve forbes. wow. >> i know. it's a throwback machine. we were just talking, and you and i, all of us have the communications brain. you just can't unwrangle. it's all about expectations and how you manage this. what's the biggest thing you're watching for post results? >> the really hard thing for the campaigns to manage is how and when do you declare victory? because as you all know -- >> that doesn't mean winning, by the way. that means victory in how you're defining it. >> i've had candidates declare victory in third place before. so you never know. >> in 2016 -- what people may not understand, i think people understand the caucuses are very complicated and results don't come rolling in at a uniform clip. and you kind of have to sort of figure out based on what kind of vote is outstanding and where it's outstanding how your

candidate's actually doing. and it is a race to declare victory. i'm sure trump, who loves to declare victory, will do it. and he may even say i've won with 50% of the vote and we don't know what it actually is. haley i think has the most on the line to try to be able to credibly declare second place and at what point can she do that. and then the transition from iowa to new hampshire, you are just so focused on iowa for months and months and months, a year if you're ron desantis. and then all of a sudden boom, you've got to show up in new hampshire and you've got to look like the winner. and if you don't do that transition right in the next 24 to 48 hours you sink. >> you fly overnight. you don't sleep and you wake up and you're getting coffee at a diner at 5:00 a.m. it's very confusing. >> and then the press is in your face about how are you going to win new hampshire? and new hampshire voters, you've got like 36 hours to turn it around. and it sneaks up. even if you're really, you know, highly professional campaign that part sneaks up on you. >> it's such an important thing. jim messina i think has joined

us. and he of course has had many senior jobs on presidential campaigns that were actually winning. i actually was looking it up, jim. that was a sick burn to somebody. i was looking up this morning. i forgot how large the turnout was for barack obama. it was 250,000 people, if i'm correct. that is a huge enormous number. what we're talking about now, i mean, record numbers for the republicans was just under 187,000 in 2016. it's not seeming like it's going to be that. but talk to me a little about -- you can't unravel the field organizer from your brain. how turnout could impact the outcome here. >> yeah. it's the most interesting question, right? because lots of geeks like me are sitting in what we call boiler rooms, jen, where they're running all the numbers right now trying to figure out who's going to vote tonight. and to tim's earlier point, is it the cities that are moving? how big is the rural turnout? if it's really big rural you've got to figure that helps donald trump. if it's a really massive turnout

that probably also helps donald trump. so turnout is one of the biggest things. i remember in 2008 general election i ran the boiler-room on election day and they came and said huge problem, we have a mile-long line in virginia with voters at 5:00 a.m. ready to vote. i'm like that's not a problem. that's called winning. and these are the first things you see that are starting to tell you how big the turnout is going to be tonight. >> we're going to see it soon because these doors do open soon. cornell, i'm going to come back to you, but we're first goinging too to nbc's jacob soboroff. talk to us about where you are, how this is going to work, what are you going to be watching. >> reporter: it would be my pleasure to give you a tour, jen. i think if you want to know what's going to happen tonight, you want to know about turnout numbers, this is one of the places to look. this is ottumwa high school and we're in wapelo county. take a look at this auditorium.

the way it's going to go down, jen, is everybody in this county, that's why they call it a supercaucus site, there are 22 precincts here, they're going to show up in this auditorium. everybody's starting to gather downstairs i'll take you through the whole building in a minute. but they're going to um can up here listen to the campaigns make a pitch and head outside of the auditorium and go to the caucus locations. let me show you all of that. this place is pretty impressive. it's about three, four stories tall. it's a building that dates to 1923. and everyone in this county no matter where you're from you're going to show up here tonight. 100-year anniversary of the bulldogs. go bulldogs. they're all going to show up here tonight. and they're all going to make their way from the auditorium, believe it or not, down to the classrooms here on the second floor of this school. and let me show you where the caucuses themselves all take place. because there are so many different precincts in the county. when i said they're getting ready, they really are getting ready. you're getting ready for the caucus, right? >> yes, i am. >> what's your name? >> vicky. >> vicky. and what do you do? >> i'm a custodian. >> give me a hug. thank you so much for getting

ready for the caucus. we appreciate you. >> not a problem. >> keep it coming, jen. i'll show you the rest of this. >> we're following you. >> 121, 120. this one's a spanish classroom right here. vicky, i just saw her here a few minutes ago, she was unlocking all the classrooms. people are going to bring their ballots into this room, put their ballot like a normal election with a secret ballot inside a box and they're going to actually count the ballots in these rooms. but this is not where the grand total is announced. i'm going to show you that too. the thing i want to point out, by the way, about wapelo county is former president trump back in 2016 did quite well here. i think he had something like -- see you in a minute. don't worry. you can keep doing what you're doing. what's that? >> you do the same. >> okay. we will. i promise. back in 2016 he had about 36% of the vote here. the question is is it going to look more like the polls do? is he going to get 58% of the vote here? where there could be as many as 1,000 people? they said there was 1900 people here in 2016.

the weather of course by the way outside, it's about negative 11 degrees actually. here's the volunteers. they're starting to gather. let's go down the stairs this way. ultimately once the votes are tabulated they're going to be brought down here -- are you guys all caucus volunteers? >> just here to vote. >> so you're here real early. >> i got up at 5:30 and i was ready to be here at 6:00. >> they don't start at 7:00. they start at 7:00. once it's all done it starts at 7:00 upstairs, it's 8:00 eastern time, they're going to bring everything down, they're going to tabulate the votes in those caucus locations. they're going to announce them on a big white board here and we'll know what's up hopefully around 9:00. it will be i look into how former president trump does here, whether he increases the margin, stays around the same or decreases. we'll see. but the excitement is building slowly but surely.

>> i know jacob you're going to give us lots of updates through the evening there. and that's actually as you said one of the bigger caucuses. this really shows people -- people are gathering literally as you are at a local school, at churches. this is what is happening across iowa every four years. i did want to ask you, i know that you spoke with a bunch of iowans ahead of tonight. everybody's kind of obsessed including us with the cold weather and how it's going to impact people. did you get a sense it was going to deter anyone? >> reporter: not really. the thing about iowa is this is iowa. i don't know that it's always this cold, negative 37 degrees with the windchill, but people are dedicated. and actually to be perfectly honest with you in this county people are very passionate about donald trump irrespective of sort of the controversies around all of his policies in the last administration. i talked details about immigration, about the economy, about how people's lives are here. and people are still steadfast supporters of the former president, about his legal troubles they say they're going to come out anyways. and i think for many of them that's part of the reason they

want to make this extra effort to come out. they're not kidding around. i have the feeling we're going to see a pretty good crowd here. these guys are early. and they're what, like -- we have hours to go before this thing begins. >> you're telling me that we're a little wimpy here on the east coast in our tolerance for weather and people just put their boots on, their coats and they get out to caucus. jacob soboroff, thank you so much for starting us off this hour. please stay warm. >> reporter: you got it, jen. >> cornel, let me go to you. you are as we like to say an actual pollster. so maybe you're going to bring us down to earth on some of these numbers. jacob touched on this. just kind of how in recent polls trump says crazy things, he echoes hitler, he says he's going to be a dictator, more than 6 in 10 likely republican caucusgoers, 61% say it't matter to their suppo if former president trump is convicted. that was in the recent des moines register poll. when you hear those numbers, you think what is happening? is this the country we live in? but what does that tell us about

i guess the republican electorate? but how do you think about that as it relates to the electorate writ large in november? >> well, a couple of things. one is he clearly has a locked in base of support, right? and he said it himself. he could shoot someone and not lose any support. and it's true, right? it only energizes his base of support. what i will say is when the horse race number is wrong it's usually because the pollster has predicted the wrong universe and it all depends on what universe turns out. and as you pointed out there, you're talking about such a narrow swath of voters anyway, a high point for republicans i think was 187,000 votes. so you're talking about such a narrow swath, a narrow universe of voters to start with. and you've got -- and you've got sort of terrible conditions there. so it's about who turns out. and this is where polling gets tricky and where polling can be off. these are horse race numbers, which i think we spend too much

time talking about anyway. it is when the universe is wrong. and i've got to tell you, it's hard to predict that caucus universe in iowa and it's hard to predict that universe in new hampshire too because you have independents who can come and go in and out of that universe. so it's hard to predict. i won't lean too much on that horse race number. but that said, even if the universe is off, it's usually not off 20 or 30 points. so it's hard to see -- right? i think trump is the front-runner there. but what i'm really looking at here is look, no one has spent more resources, burnt through more cash, and set -- you know, put more into iowa than desantis. and the truth of the matter is if trump -- i hope trump doesn't get to 50% because then it becomes inevitable. i think he has this feeling of inevitability which trickles down to other states. but i think if trump does get close to 50 given all the time and effort and the resources that desantis has spent in

this -- in iowa, i think it's hard to justify sort of from a resource standpoint, from a campaign standpoint how he moves forward. so i think iowa's actually going to probably slim down the field realistically here in the next couple of days. >> no one's going anywhere. all of you are staying put. thank you for that. and when we return, the all-important evangelical vote in iowa, which by the way to cornell's point ron desantis has been betting on and still isn't winning. but why unlike eight years ago they're much more likely to support donald trump. plus we'll be joined by the one and only steve kornacki. what he's watching for tonight. he'll bring us his viewer's guide to tonight's caucuses live as always from the big board. and later more developments in the many legal troubles facing the disgraced ex-president in & iowa caucus's favorite. what we're learning about how jack smith plans to prosecute trump for his mishandling of classified documents at mar-a-lago. that's also still happening. our special coverage of the iowa caucuses continues after a short break. stay with us. nues after a short break. stay with us

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i've noticed in the past few years that like almost every person i've met like supports him. and there are so many people that support him. and i see his -- his name, his signs more often than i've ever seen any other candidate's. >> that was nbc's priscilla thompson talking to a first-time iowa caucusgoer in sioux county about the growth in support he's seen for donald trump compared to 2016. when trump lost the iowa caucuses to senator ted cruz. in that county, an evangelical stronghold, can tell us a lot

about why trump's polling in iowa overall is much stronger now. because back in 2016 it was trump's worst performing county in the state. he came in fourth, losing every precinct. largely due to his weak support with evangelical voters. a lot has changed since then, though. i mean, not for the good for trump necessarily. trump has been -- well, he's been married three times. that was before then. but he's been indicted four. owned casinos promoted gambling, had an affair with a porn star. been credibly accused of sexual assault by more than 25 women and bragged about it on tape. some of that happened before that but that's all part of trump's record. and he's noweading the gop field by nearl 30 points with evangelical caucgos according to a new poll from nbc news. and is it because trump has ned his own values with the evangelical community, he hasn't be become more evangelical. it's because more people in the evangelical community seem to have aligned their values to his. so let's bring in nbc news correspondent priscilla thompson in sioux center, iowa.

priscilla, you've been talking to voters there. we just had a great clip we played of one you spoke with. talk to us a little about president trump's support there which seems to be such a shift from 2016. >> reporter: yeah, jen, certainly. and we've been crisscrossing this county talking to caucusgoers trying to get a sense of what's happened here. and what i'll say is of the folks i've talked to a lot of them have told me that they were undecided but leaning toward trump. and so it's perhaps not that super firm support we're seeing in some other areas but it's a number of issues that is driving it. some folks for them it is abortion and the fact that he sort of paved the way for overturning roe v. wade. but i've also heard about immigration. certainly about the economy. and also about holding government agencies accountable. but the one thing i've heard from folks across the board is they feel like they know donald trump, they know what they're getting with him, they know he's going to follow through and do what it is he said i was going

to do. ron desantis has also spent a lot of time in this county trying to drum up that evangelical vote. but what i've heard from caucusgoers is they're not sure that they know him. they're not sure they know what they're getting with him but with trump they have seen it over the past four years, they have seen how he has delivered for them and for that reason a lot of folks are looking toward supporting him at tonight's caucus. >> you mentioned a number of issues which it's interesting for people to pay attention to and focus on. it seems like they're kind of i go ignoring with what's going on in his personal life and how that doesn't align with traditional evangelical beliefs as well as these legal cases against him which are of course different. but is that sort of a sentiment you're hearing, that none of that matters to him? >> reporter: yeah. it is not something that has come up in my conversations with those folks here. some folks say i'm on the fence because of the legal issues and some of the baggage he brings but that is not outweighing their support. and it's important to note in

2016 it was a completely different story. as you mentioned this was the county where donald trump performed the worst. ted cruz won this county. he went on to win the state. and i asked a caucusgoer who says he's going to support nikki haley tonight about that. i said what has changed in this community. and i want to play what he told me. >> what's changed? >> what's changed is that the evangelical christians have bought in -- by the way, i consider myself one. have come to the point where they believe that donald trump is speaking their kind of issues, they think they need somebody that can take on the, quote, libs. so they've sold out. >> priscilla -- >> reporter: and i will say that is a sentiment -- >> go ahead, priscilla. you were explaining.

>> reporter: yes, that is a sentiment that i've heard from folks here in the evangelicals. they want a fighter. he's a fighter. they're tired of being run over. whereas you heard that caucusgoer who also identifies as evangelical and he told me no, my religion is about inclusivity, it's about supporting the immigrant and helping those who need that assistance. there's definitely a misalignment i think in how some people are viewing their religion right now. and so he's going to be caucusing for nikki haley hoping to give her a boost. but he says trump is likely going to win here by a mile, and that's a quote. jen? >> priscilla thompson. such an important -- you're in a very important county paying attention to this. it's definitely one to watch tonight. about such an important issue, which is the evangelical community and where they go. thank you for your excellent reporting and for joining us as well this afternoon. so we're back with jim, cornell, jen and tim. tim, you promised me during the break you had a lot of thoughts on the evangelical community. >> i do have a little bit. then i was jarred by hearing a senior citizen talk about owning

the libs. you know, and that is like to put me in a very dark place about the state of affairs among the republican electorate. that was such an important report from priscilla because that area, sioux county, sioux center, if desantis was going to have a good night -- >> it would be there. >> that needs to be it. and i remember in '08 working for mccain that was like hostile territory for us. right? that was mike huckabee land. it was just mccain just didn't offer that true religious values, christian conservatism, pat buchanan's -- excuse me, pat robertson style policies that these voters like. so that should be desantis's room. like they went huckabee up there. they went santorum. they went ted cruz. and now desantis is nowhere. i just think that speaks to the weakness of his candidate skills and his grassroots skills. i think the fact is that they spent 100 million and they spent like thousands of dollars per voter in iowa and he can't -- he can't just rustle up a thousand voters in a county like that.

but they can't find them because they've decided they like donald trump better. that's just the reality. >> or that he's not going to win. one of the things we may be talking about this evening is endorsements and whether they matter. ron desantis -- they've never really mattered in my view just to put my cards on the view. >> not for the past 20 years. >> but bob van der platts is one of the most evangelical leaders in iowa. he endorsed desantis pretty early. >> governor reynolds. >> governor reynolds endorsed desantis. she's still saying he's going to win as of a few days ago. there's that. but talk to me a little about that. >> it matters when -- it could matter when you have an untested candidate that people don't know well and they need somebody else to vouch for them. donald trump doesn't need anybody to vouch for him. the caucuses were devised decades ago to be a way for the republican party and the democratic party to ferret out the best person to win across the country. right? donald trump blew up that whole system eight years ago.

all of these sort of niceties of endorsements and managing expectations in iowa it's kind of -- these people are playing an old game. but what i think people don't understand about evangelicals, when i've been in iowa and talked to them, donald trump delivered for them in such a big way. he did -- i mean, priscilla said that he did what he said he was going to do. and they do not expect -- evangelicals do not expect politicians to be saints. there's a lot of sin in the world. they expect people to -- they don't expect great behavior from politicians. so it is not necessarily at odds for them to get behind someone like trump, an earthly figure like trump who delivered -- >> earthly is a very pragmatic way of saying it. >> can i give one small silver lining to this? is it the worst thing in the world that the evangelical grifter complex is now dead in iowa. that was it in '04 and '08 -- >> you mean leaders don't get the influence. >> yeah, you get bob van der

plats and steve scheffler -- >> you get those people on board -- >> now it doesn't work. >> people aren't even listening within the community. jim, i just wanted to kind of jump ahead. we have iowa to cover tonight. but evangelicals in the republican primary are important, right? they're not really a big presence in new hampshire. but if you're the desantis team and you can't do well with them, what argument do you make and how much could this support be because he delivered, as palmieri just said, helped trump in kind of states between now and leading up to super tuesday? >> oh, look, if desantis can't move tonight, i mean, he's bet his entire campaign on this. this was supposed to be good ground for him. and if he can't finish a strong second, his goose is cooked and he won't make it to south carolina or other places where evangelical voters are very, very important including super tuesday. i mean, he finishes third tonight and it's over for him. but a reminder to what tim said, iowa republicans have been in the past 15 years really poor predictors of who's going to be

a good general election candidate. and the guy you interviewed talked about, well, these voters trust him, they know him, they feel comfortable with him. that's exactly the opposite, jen, of what voters in the battleground states say in focus groups. they are so sick of the trump bandwagon. they're so sick of what he says every day. they don't feel comfortable with him. so the iowa republicans have got to be really careful what they're doing tonight because they're probably going to put this guy on the road to the nomination. and i still believe he's not going to win the general election. >> so let's talk about that. first of all, his goose is cooked is quite a turn of phrase. we may reuse this evening. we'll see. cornell, you again are an actual pollster who's sat in these focus groups, you've run them, you've looked at data. talk to us a little about how these trump arguments impact people in focus groups. are they sick of it? i'm talking about -- not hardcore democrats. independents and others who are going to be important in the larger electorate as we move forward. >> yeah. well, one thing i want us to understand, you can't take -- and i know we do it all the

time. but you can't take too much out of what happens in primaries or caucuses and project them at large around the general electorate -- general election. because as you just talked about it's such a narrow swath of voters in the first place. look, in this country we're lucky if we get 50% of voters turning out. so you're talking about what, maybe 10, 8, 9% of voters determining who wins a primary or caucus. so it's a narrow swath. what i will say is it is a target-rich environment with donald trump and part of the problem is it's flooding the box, is how do you pick the best arguments against him? because there are some good arguments against him that move independent voters. look, when i think about this general election, i think it's going to come down to -- in large part it's going to come down to turnout and the president's ability to coalesce that obama continuum around him.

again, like we saw deteriorate in 2016 to third-party voting and not turning out. but it coalesced around him in 2020 with this young diverse group of voters and younger voters sort of coalescing around him and taking him across the finish line. but i think it comes down to what are these younger more diverse voters going to do. but also from an argument standpoint i agree with jim, i think donald trump has a ceiling of 46, 47%. we've seen this in several elections. it's hard for him to get above that ceiling given what you just said about him, given he's been indicted, he's got civil assault lawsuit against him, he's paid off porn stars. so there's a lot of arguments for -- against him. and look, when you talk to that swing voter, that mom in suburban philadelphia or that mom in the suburbs outside of atlanta who will largely determine this election, it's

hard for us to put on the argument, you know, how does trump move that woman voter, that college educated white woman voter back toward him and the republicans? we've seen the deterioration of the suburbs over the last couple of years. how does that mom who's thinking about her daughter and her daughter's ability to have a better life and decide what happens to her body, and college debt, you know, how does trump and republicans pull those voters back? so i agree with jim. i think it's tough to see him get over that 46%, 47%. but i think the call and the rally of the biden campaign is how to pull back this younger, more diverse electorate and coalesce it around him. one quick thing i've got to say about evangelicals. i want to level set a little bit here. i know we spend a lot of time talking about evangelicals. but what you're largely talking about here is white evangelicals. and religiosity takes people of color in a very different direction than it does take

whites. you show me someone who's in church frequently, you know, two or three times a week, i'm probably going to show you a republican -- a trump supporter. however, if you show me someone who's african american in church two or three times a week, i'm probably going to show you someone who's voting in a democratic primary. so religiosity takes people to very different places and it's a complicated conversation. >> that's such an important point. and iowa as we all know, this is why it's not first for the democrats anymore, is 85% white and the republican electorate, maybe in general. that is a very important point i'm sure one we'll be talking more about. everyone is sticking around. when we return it's not an election night without steve kornacki. at least that's what everyone on my friends' text chain tell me. he'll be looking at what he's watching for tonight. our coverage of the iowa caucuses continues right after this. caucuses continues right after this

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we are now just about a half hour away from when doors open at caucus sites around iowa. the first actual votes of the 2024 presidential race coming a bit later this evening, and the man who will be taking us through all of it tonight for many hours to come and all year long is nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki, who joins us now from the big board with a look at what he's watching for tonight. steve, what are we watching for tonight? >> we'll take you to the map that we'll begin filling up sometime after 8:00 eastern. by the way, the first report votes from the iowa republican

caucuses the last time around in 2016 just to give you a little sense, 8:36 esche eastern time. 7:36 iowa time. we got our first report. this man may be filling in. but in terms of 99 counties here what are we going to be looking for in them? let me give you a few different ideas. i think we'll use 2016 here sort of as a guide post in splitting up the state. remember, first, trump lost iowa in 2016. ted cruz beat him by three points. and marco rubio was only a point behind trump. he almost beat trump for second place. why did ted cruz win iowa and donald trump didn't in 2016? one word, you were just talking about it. evangelicals. they made up 64% of the iowa republican electorate in 2016. the formula here in modern iowa caucuses, you win the evangelical vote, you win the caucuses. that's how mike huckabee did it in 2008, rick santorum in 2012. ted cruz over donald trump in 2016. with that in mind there are 42 counties of these 99 that voted

for all three of the candidates i just mentioned. the evangelical candidates. huckabee santorum and cruz. we're going to be keying in on all of those early. almost all the dark red you see on the map these are all the cruz counties. the very dark red. most of them fit that criteria. he won some counties that weren't huckabee and santorum as well. but most of these fit the huckabee santorum cruz. none more dramatically than sioux county in the western part of the state. deeply religious here. and you see cruz won it but the thing you don't see is donald trump's name here. donald trump got 11% of the vote in sioux county. this is the ninth largest in terms of votes produced on caucus night. donald trump was 11%. this was his worst county in the state. remember in 2016 there was a lot of skepticism, resistance to him among evangelicals. the story of the last eight years. that seems to have changed. sioux county will tell us a lot about that story tonight. is trump winning here? how much is he winning by? is it a runaway?

those are the sorts of things we're going to be looking for. those 42 counties, huckabee, santorum and cruz, how many of them is trump flipping over? and conversely, if desantis is going to make any noise tonight, going to surprise anyone, look as well to those 42 counties. is he winning any of them? is he winning a bub ch of them? is he close to trump in a bunch of them? those are core counties for him because he's going after the evangelical vote so hard in this campaign. we'll look closely at those. another type of county the other big type of county to keep an eye on, far, far fewer of these but everything you see -- the way you want to call this color, is it pink, is it cream, is it salmon? i'm almost color blind. i can't quite tell. but anyway, whar you want to call this color here and there were five counties all won by marc o. rubio. the thing these five counties have in common they've got big populations at least within iowa. polk county where des moines is is the biggest, about 17% of the caucus vote is going to come out of there. what did marco rubio have in 2016? let me go back to the full state

result. marco rubio's voters tended to be college educated. they tended to be higher income. they tended to live in urban areas or suburban areas. that is what defines these five counties here. this is a big bedroom community suburb of des moines. dallas county rubio won it. trump was far behind. how about story county? this is one of trump's worst in the state, only 15%. rubio in a runaway. this is where iowa state university is. this is where ames is. so again, nikki haley, like rubio, attracting higher income college-educated urban, suburban voters. so if nikki haley is going to make noise tonight, get second, get the kind of momentum out of iowa she's looking for, look for it in polk. look for it in dallas county. whoa, i didn't mean to move the map there. look for it in dallas county, story county. right here johnson county. this is the biggest democratic county in the state in general elections. but it's where iowa city is. the university of iowa. it still produces a good number of votes on the republican side. this was rubio territory in '16.

is it haley territory tonight? so those are some keys we're going to be looking at. evangelical counties that resisted trump in 2016 and went for ted cruz is trump turned it completely around there or is desantis giving him a run for his money in some of those? in those suburban and urban counties, college degrees, higher incomes is nikki haley running up big margins there that might get her to second place that might get a surprise showing for her? and again, trump did poorly in those counties as well. has he improved at all? >> one of the questions, steve, and you talked about this, i have, is about what will show nikki haley has expanded her coalition? and you mentioned some of these very big counties. polk where des moines is. story countcounty. lynn county where college campuses are. johnson county. where are the places you may be watching to see even though the population is small if she does better than expected there it might be an indication she might be having a good night? >> yeah. and this is the challenge for haley i think even just from a message standpoint because we just found it in our last poll

more than 3/4 of her voters say they have a negative view of donald trump. half of her voters in our poll identify as either independents or democrats. and i think not coincidentally in our poll her unfavorable rating spiked pretty dramatically. this is something we've seeb in republican politics in the trump era. think of chris christie. think of mike pence. the more you get sort of seen as the candidate of the anti-trump vote, the anti-trump forces, the more that republicans who like donald trump, and that is the vast majority of republicans, will turn on you. that may be happening to nikki haley. if she wants to put that to bed tonight it's not just doing well in places i talked about, some places you might look. southern iowa here along the missouri border. because i just used marco rubio in 2016. take a look at how rubio did in these counties in 2016. start right here. again, you don't see his name. ben carson got third here. rubio, these are rural areas. lower income, lower college

degree concentration and rubio just wasn't even registering. ben carson in third, no rubio. ben kars non-third, no rubio. ben carson in third, no rubio. this is what tripped rubio up in 2016. if he'd shown a pulse in these rural counties i'm showing you some examples of, he could have passed trump and gotten second place. he might even have been able to beat ted cruz in 2016. but he absolutely fell flat in those places. the polling we're seeing that nikki haley is not going to do that much better. if she does, that would be a surprise. that would indicate an expansion of her base away from just non-republicans, away from trump-skeptical voters to more of the core trump-era republican base. and that would be an interesting development, certainly one her campaign i think would welcome and would make a lot of noise about if they could get it. >> and steve, are you able -- in your polling you track if people voted for trump in '16, if they voted for trump in 2020 in the general election. are we going to be able to discern, or how quickly will we able to discern if trump is

expanding his universe of voters, people who are voting for him this time that didn't vote for him last time? particularly in suburban counties. >> every county as we get results i'll just show you right now what we're going to do. go back out to the statewide level. we'll go to the biggest county. let's just say we got results out of polk county to start the night here. what we'll do -- actually, i'm going to go over to tonight's. that might make this all easier. go to the 2024 screen is blank now. let's say we get results from polk county, every county we get them we're going to compare. how did it look in 2016. here's polk's number for trump. he was at 22%. he was in third place. if he's doing massively better than that tonight, that will be a story. if he's only doing incrementally better that will be its own story. we're going to start looking for trends that way. certainly we expect trump to be improving pretty much across the board on his 2016 showing. the question is how much. the polls are indicating it's going to be massive improvement, basically a little more than doubling his support based on our final poll in any given

county. is he actually doing that? is he coming in short of that? is he exceeding that? but we'll have those numbers as they come and that's going to be a major point of comparison for us. >> polk county always important to watch. steve kornacki, wouldn't be an election night without you. i think that's fair to say. jen palmieri, tim miller, jim messina and cornell belcher, thank you for spending some time with us this afternoon. when we return we're keepgs our eye on iowa of course for the rest of the night. but there's a lot to get into in the prosecutions of donald trump. new developments in both the mar-a-lago case and fulton county. we'll have those right after a short break. we'll have those ria short break.

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in what is just another reflection of this wild and crazy ride we are all on this year that includes a historic presidential race overlapping sometimes within days, with trump's many legal cases. brand new court filing late friday night laid out for the first time that specific witnesses that special counsel jack smith plans to have testify in the classified documents case against him. six fbi employees who were described in these new documents filed by the special counsel as experts in digital forensics, cellular or computer analytics, are expected to testify about extracted data, you waste from devices and accounts belonging to trump's codefendants. his body man, walt nauta, still his body man remarkably. and mar-a-lago property manager carlos de oliveira. as well as data related to the unnamed trump employee number two.

joining our conversation former acting assistant attorney general for national security at the doj and co-host of msnbc 's accident podcast, prosecuting donald trump, mary court is here. and with me at the table, david ehrenberg. let me start with you. there's so many filings that are happening but this one it seems pretty interesting and important because it tells us a bit about the strategy. what should we take away from that? >> obstruction because donald trump apparently instructed his men, walt nauta and karla still viera to delete an important recording. and there is some evidence. people lie but the recordings don't. >> there are tapes which is an evergreen statement. >> that is gonna be trump's undoing in this case. it's a shame though, it's the strongest case, which is this one, it's gonna be the one least likely to occur before the election because judge cannon's slow walking it. >> you don't think it's gonna start in may? >> no way. judge cannon has given trump's team all the time in the world.

she has pushed back all the deadlines. normally -- and in so doing, the case that would be heard that trump's most worried about would be in washington, d.c., the election interference case. but this is the strongest case and this one is not happening. >> it's a little dark. i mean there's always so much going on in the legal front. it's true every time we talk. but i wanted to ask you about what we've seen over the last couple of days with the reporting around fani willis because of course, there was some reports in the atlanta journal-constitution that started about a filing with the trump team against her. she came out this weekend, and i spoke to her for the first time. she called out what she calls racially motivated attacks against her by trump allies about her choice to pick nathan lead as one of the three lead prosecutors. let's listen to that. >> -- attacking. i never want to be a marjorie taylor greene who has never met me. i appointed three special

counsel as i have the right to do. oh, she's gonna play the race card now. isn't it them who are playing the race card when they only question -- >> she didn't, of course, i should not speak to the specific accusations filed by the trump team in which he said. but what do you make of the story, of her response, of how it could impact or not impact what's happening in georgia? >> well, first, just to be clear, this was filed by mike roman, not the former president. >> important clarification. thank, you mary. yes. >> and i hardly mention that because even trump's own attorneys have not yet decided yet whether you're gonna join in this request by mike roman, or the case would be completely dismissed because in part, they want to make a determination for themselves whether there is any merit to it. and that's pretty the amazing thing to think about because trump is out there speaking about it. his attorneys are saying, hold on, we don't know if you want

to join this. it's really about trying to make an argument that because fani willis is exercising authority that she has contracted with the special counsel, and then the allegations are that they have a personal relationship and that the special counsel using money, i don't know what money was used for what, since money is fungible, but using money as part of the proceeds of his contract with the d.a.'s office, funded vacations that the two of them went on to take. this is the basis for seeking disqualification. i will say number one, none of that has anything to do with sort of the merits of the criminal cases against mr. roman or any of the other 19, you know, defendants in that r.i.c.o. case, who have been guilty already. and we have to wait until we see fani willis's actual response in court because she didn't get into the merits of this just so that she would be responding in order to really assess if there is any problems

here ethically under the georgia a lot of professional responsibility. but regardless of what, if there are any ethical issues, then again, there are so many facts unknown. regardless of that, it certainly doesn't undermine the merits of the criminal case. >> mary mccord, she is one of many people who's been sweating calls as well. a lot happening in these legal cases. thank you both for spending some time with us this afternoon. doors are open, or about to open, i should say, minutes from now in caucus sites around iowa. those caucus is getting underway in about two hours from now. our special coverage will continue right after a short break. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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