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welcome to msnbc's special coverage in tonight's iowa caucus. i am ari melber here with jen psaki for the next hour. >> great to be here. as we count on to the caucus results coming later tonight with candidates making their final push is. here's what they had to say. >> today is the day we make history because we do -- >> do you guys know anybody who has gonna vote for haley or desantis? >> yes, i do. and i'm gonna try to persuade -- >> you can't sit home, even if you vote and then passed away, it's worth it. >> you can be the most worthless republican in america, but if you kiss the ring, he will say you are wonderful. >> it's just because he has an excellent record of service. >> what do you think about when people say, well, iowa is still trump country? >> i think that is wrong. some iowans, you just heard,

pushing back on efforts for tonight's story before voters weigh in. it should happen in the next few hours. while trump does have a lead in the final poll, with haley rising, and that is larger than trump's polling lead in 2016 which did not help him avoid sparred starting that year was a loss. first, a joint special report that we've ever done. that's true. and then the other factor, freezing temperatures. i was down negative 35 degrees that is very cold. accounting the windchill. it seems like what you see on your screen, water turning into snow in midair. >> i would say, it's cold here. >> we are warm here. >> we are also saying people facing the cold as the lines begin going into the caucus sites tonight. we're watching all of that. joining us now is someone who knows a thing or two about the iowa caucus, howard dean, former democratic presidential candidate who come who competed and served as among governor in the dnc. thanks for joining us. what is the most important

thing to understand in your view about the iowa caucus going in this night? >> it does set the stage but it doesn't eliminate people, with the exception of desantis, and desantis finishes after nikki haley. and that's gonna happen, and i think it's pretty clear that it's gonna happen in new hampshire. that's the problem once desantis. other than that, the other question is how big will trump's margin the? and if he gets below 50, then i think he's got a problem. and if he gets a lot below 50, then he has an enormous problem. >> governor, you have made a name for yourself, in many ways, one of them is running a 50 state strategy for the democratic party. one of the things i'm interested in watching is where candidates surprise people in the state, if they surprise people. where will you be watching to see if, say, nikki haley's coalition is expanded beyond democrats, never trump republicans and independents, what will you be looking at? >> well, that's a hard one. i certainly, iowa is one.

trump has a huge advantage there. people haven't campaigned. nikki haley hasn't campaign until recently there. new hampshire, probably, it's more like the american electorate then iowa is. it is, theoretically, it's a purple state, although it hasn't been voting that way as the republican party moved to the far right. because most republicans in new hampshire are not far right. it's very hard to say where the first real contest will be because it totally depends on what happens tonight and the next week in new hampshire. >> if you say, governor, the sort of reaction and the narrative and the money which is what candidates need to be going can't react to all of those perception pieces, the republican party in iowa has been seen basically finding an evangelical base for trump, which is not what they, evangelicals, would have said they wanted in 2015, 14,

anytime before the maga -ification of the party. take a look at some reporting on that point. >> 2016, this county went for ted cruz. what has changed? >> what's changed is that the evangelical christians have bought in, and by the way, i consider myself one, have come to the point where they believe that donald trump is speaking they are kind of issues that they think they need somebody that can take on the quote, libs. >> -- [inaudible]

-- his willingness to say whatever he wants, whether it's true or not. i mean, it's hardly what most christians will call christian values. in many ways, the danger here is that the evangelical christians have abandoned any pretense of being ethical. and they are just doing this because trump is their vehicle to their vision of what they would like to impose on the rest of the united states. so, i don't know what to make of all of this. iowa is not a typical state but it does have an influence because it's the first, and it does reflect how well you can organize in the state. >> governor, one of the things that's been striking to me, you spent a lot of time in iowa yourself -- >> all 99 counties. >> very well aware, quite a lot of stops. some of the polls have shown that some of the things that trump have said about echoing hitler, talking about vermin, they are supported by iowa

caucus goers, according to the polls. did that surprise you? and what does it tell you about the electorate? >> really, iowa has changed a lot. i have been somewhat shocked. iowa used to have, and maybe it still does, one of the highest collective board scores on the sats, very high educational attainment. a lot a very good small universities there in addition to the state universities which are very good. i don't know what has happened to iowa. i'm shocked. it was always a swing state and it isn't anymore. so, there is some baroness, some anger, maybe the evangelicals have made progress. but something that happened in iowa, i frankly hate to say this because i am incredibly fond of iowa, because it's reminiscent of in some ways, but they really shouldn't be the first, for the democrats. they don't reflect what the rest of america looks like at all. and they certainly don't reflect what the democratic party looks like. i think it was a wise decision

for the democrats not to go to iowa first. >> a huge surge for the republicans since over the last couple of years there. no question. governor dean, thank you for joining us with your amazing book collection behind you. joining us now from iowa, asa hutchinson running for president and on the gop ballot tonight, former arkansas governor has been an outspoken trump critic throughout the campaign. >> he has redefined the republican party and not in a good way. and whenever you look at what i'm trying to do, draw attention to the fact that donald trump is a weak candidate for us. long term, fear, fearmongering, and grievances only take you so far. >> governor hutchinson, you have been a strong critic of trump, never held back on that front. what is a good night looking like for you tonight? >> well, you have to beat expectations here in iowa. and, of course, i have taken a tough route here in the

campaign. it's clear that we need to move in a different direction than donald trump. in fact, i am the only candidate campaigning in iowa for president that is not promising a pardon to donald trump if elected. and that's a fundamental distinction. now, that cost me some votes, that points out that i think for myself, and that i'm looking out for the judicial system in america. but i want to exceed expectations. i'm not going to define that for you. but as howard said, you have to get some bump out of here to make sure you can raise money for the next contest in new hampshire. and i really believe we can do that because this campaign is gonna go on, not just iowa, new hampshire, but the storm clouds will gather around donald trump as we move into spring, and the snow melts, and the court cases accumulate. and that's gonna take a second look at who is going to be our nominee. and so, we don't want to be saddled with somebody that is,

as i said, a failed candidate that's going to be distracted with everything, and maybe even disqualified from the ballot. and so, i am raising that voice. it helps me somewhere than others. it hurts me. >> thank, you governor, for joining us. i'm ari melber. you bring up the promises of pardons which suggests it's an open secret that the former president cannot only be trite, but convicted, because that will be the situation. while his lawyers argue the opposite, as you know. and you bring up that future. do you think there is a possibility that there could be buyers or more, if he's convicted, double convicted, trickle convicted before election day for your part? >> well, i think actually the polls show that that if there is an actual conviction, then that changes the dynamics within the republican base. many just say we can't do that. it ought to be a nominee that can't win in november. and so, yes,, there is going to

be regrets about that. and donald trump is trying to tie this up very quickly. sometimes, i think the media buys into the idea that we gotta narrow the field so quickly. he would love to narrow the field just to have one person that he's running against. i think that plays into his hand. he wants to wrap it up quickly because the further it goes, the more truth that is revealed, the more annexed that's gonna raise concerns for the electorate. i think the dynamic is change next year. we have to keep moving. we have to keep candidates in there as we fight the battle in the spring. >> governor, you mention a couple of times, it's absolutely accurate. this is an ongoing primary. this is the beginning, the caucus tonight. where do you expect donald trump to get his biggest challenge, new hampshire is one? are there other states that you have your eye on where you don't think the electorate is going to line up behind him? >> you know, actually, wherever you look at new hampshire,

obviously, that's a state that i think would be very close for donald trump. and i think there is a chance that his star will diminish at that time. you look further into the south, actually, i think whenever you look at california, which is that state, i see that as an opportunity that we can have an alternative, we can have some success in a state like california and colorado. and, you know, it's the challenge within the republican party because some of them, they see donald trump threatened, and they want to move to a caucus. but in the primary system, i think there is some real opportunities whenever you get to the midwestern states. >> understood. and governor hutchinson, i appreciate you making time for us on a busy night for you, the iowa caucus. we are gonna wait and count the votes. we're not gonna do any counting until then. appreciate you joining us. i will tell everyone, coming up, jen and i have a special report -- >> our first,! >> we are working on it together and we will deal with

everything from history to what to watch for tonight, and yes, this weather. but first, coming up, heather mcgee on the threat of democracy, as we also mark an important day in america, martin luther king junior holiday. we are back in just one minute. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

biden's four years are over. i think we're gonna need to move on from him. i think that anybody would be better than that. >> we are just hours away from the iowa caucuses, the 2024 election cycle officially kicking off on martin luther king day. joining us now, really, it's heather mcgee, board chair at color of change, and author of the some of us. heather, thank you so much for taking the time this evening. i mean, it is a little jarring that this is happening on martin luther king day, which is why it is important to discuss. i just want to ask you about some of the polls that have been a little jarring to me in

iowa about some of the positions that have been defended. i mean, first of all, a recent iowa poll said, in terms of how strongly the republican caucus goers identify with maga, it's a huge percentage. 18%, ultra maga. 22%, regular maga. i mean, that's not necessarily surprising, but still, a little jarring. they have also been echoing and supporting some of the, i would say, racist terminology that donald trump has used. what do you make of that? >> you know, thanks so much for having me on this very important day in our history. this is the 39th, and at a time that this country has celebrated martin luther king's birthday, and he would have been 95 today. he was killed before he turned 40. and so much of what he fought for is really still an ongoing struggle in our journey, to really have this country be a place where we experience the brotherhood of man, and the beloved community that he spoke

to. and i think it is really the kind of polling that you are saying that shows that the ideas, the rhetoric, the zero-sum narrative that is so a core part of the maga vision, that is a core part of trump's, sort of, brand. the fact that that is as popular as it is today means that we are still in a contest. it means that his message is very clear. it is a message, and primarily, white americans saying, fear and distrust your neighbor, you know, progress for people of color, or even in the presence of people of color, it's a direct threat to you. and it's a narrative that gets 24/7, you know, wall-to-wall coverage from conservative talk radio, to cable news. it's clear, and it's promoted very widely. at the same time, we search that we have done has shown that in fact most americans can hold really competing ideas and visions of the country in the same sort of breath. and what really matters is who

is speaking to them the loudest, who is sort of calling them to their better angels, and we have the same kind of polling that shows, for example, nearly 70% of iowa voters don't support book bans, right? something that has been so important to the republican agenda, you know, from nikki haley denying slavery was a cause of the civil war, you know, revealing that she was a part of a segregation academy, and wanting to have that kind of book bans across the country. obviously, desantis and trump as well. i think we need to recognize that we need to be out there fighting for the hearts and minds of americans every single day. >> and, heather, we wanted to have you on today to turn to the wider context, and obviously the special election coverage. i'm curious if you can talk to us a little bit about the story we tell ourselves. it's martin luther king day, so we can think about both the darkness and the light, if i may. and the story we tell ourselves sometimes is we are better than this. and that can be a bridge because dr. king talk that way sometimes, but only enforced by

action. and then, the other part of the story, the darkness is, this is who we have always been. right now, we are dealing with the popularity of autocratic leadership and violence, violence in place of politics. that's not new to our history. it's not new to martin luther king day. we mark in assassination. it is not new to the civil rights black struggle in america where the threat and use of violence was a constant feature. i'm curious if you can speak to us, educate us a bit about that because there is hope. i don't think it has to be all of us forever. but there is also reality of violence against peaceful or civic action, which hangs over, of course, the coup trial in the future. that is very, very relevant to many of america's communities for a long time. >> that's right. and what happens when we ignore our history, when we banned books, when we deny the basic facts of how we have never truly been, a truly

representative multi racial democracy? we've always had the struggle for that. it's always been a contest between the many and the few to have a seat at the table. when we deny that truth, we fail to give ordinary americans a chance to be the heroes in the story, right? because if everything that was important and every struggle for justice either happen in doctor king's day, and it's finished and complete, and now we have to be a color blind society. what does the everyday american need to do in the face of inequality today, widespread poverty, of mass incarceration, of police violence, right? you are not called to be a part of a movement if you pretend that it all happened in the past. but, of course, if you deny that it ever happened at all, then use fail to see that the everyday heroes, white, black, and brown who helped make this country truly pull forward into

the future throughout our history. so, i think today, which is oftentimes talked about as a day of service, i think it's more important for us to think about what we are going to do with our time on this earth, to recommit to the ideals that actually tonight americans. there's a new annual call called the heart of america poll for help and equity that shows that eight in ten americans believe that we should have diversity in the workplace and that we should educate children about the history of racism in america, including three in four republicans. and i know that sounds, well, how could that possibly be the same republican party that supports donald trump? it's because fundamentally, just as we have always been a somewhat divided nation, we hear every day narratives that want to push us apart, from politicians, from paid bullies in the corporate media. and we also hear in our communities, in our places of worship, narratives that want to pull us together. we have to keep contending and

fighting for the story that will help america survive as it becomes more and more racially diverse. >> heather mcgee, on a big night for more than one reason, thank you for joining us. i want to tell our viewers what's still ahead. i was surprises from obama to cruz. remember, trump lost in the 2016 cycle. as mentioned, our first's report that jen and i have done. and how a conviction for defendant trump could stake his whole campaign. and that is based on new republican polling. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ nexium 24hr prevents heartburn acid for twice as long as pepcid. get all-day and all-night heartburn acid prevention with just one pill a day. choose acid prevention. choose nexium. why choose between a longer life or quality of life? you deserve both. and with kisqali, a treatment for people with metastatic breast cancer, you can have both. kisqali is a pill that when taken

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for all the talk, bluster, and debates, tonight, it's the first time we hear from voters in this 2024 campaign. it's the first time republicans are assessing trump since his indictment. and there's been a lot of speculation about dog fans looking past trump's legal problems, however bad th. trump fans often dismiss controversies, reiterating support. we've seen that in recent polling. and the final iowa poll does find a sizeable trump lead. but beyond the race, the nbc registered poll also ask hard-core republican activists if a future trump conviction could change their vote. and even though these are the most active, most partisan republicans in iowa, and most do say they will stand by trump regardless, there is also tonight perilous news here for trump, and good news for biden, depending on the trials.

because while most republicans and iowa say it doesn't matter to them if trump is convicted of a crime, fully, one out of five brand new say a conviction makes them less likely to support trump. and this new finding that you see right here actually undercuts the trump maga narrative, a hope that he can with withstand even a conviction this year. one fifth of republican voters is at fifth of the base that he cannot afford to lose. if trump gets a nomination, he does start and a whole, remember. he lost to biden before. he has to hold the base not lose them. these colliding timelines of trump's trials and the campaign schedule do pose problems. trump's trial schedule has all four criminal trial starting before election day, as you see here, as they are scheduled. even if some of that schedule holds, then we can get verdicts in several of these trials. and that builds on trump's

previous problems, even according to republicans, as the classic 21 savage line goes, how many problems you got? a lot. how many lawyers you've got? a lot. and now, how many trials you've got? a lot. and of course, that is a throwback as true 21 fans might know. but on the brand new album, he also says, watch from my shoulder, way down to my wrist, every story got a twist. well, this story's twist could be a trump conviction that even has maga republicans bailing on him on the way to losing another race. now, as i told you, jen psaki and i are here for the full hour. and our special report, which we promised, is next. stay with us. ay with us

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please give now. our coverage of tonight's

iowa caucuses. >> now, we return to a special report. >> it's here! >> it's finally here. this is gonna draw on some reporting, your experiences, which starts with a presidential campaign every four years. i'm gonna get us started and then i know you have some thoughts as well. tonight's, the iowa vote follows a long tradition with candidates going all school with a grassroots campaigning from diners to form, two candidates even did all 99 counties. and jen has more to say on that in a moment. but the political class is also

fixated on this idea of two tickets out of iowa. polls show trump in the league. haley possibly picking up steam. so, that part follows the past years, the traditions we know. other things though are different this year. one candidate is indicted and awaiting trial for his attempted coup. the weather will be the coldest ever. take a new york times re which knows this unpredictable and quirky process now features dangerously cold weather and an unusually uncompetitive contest. that's a reference to the early polling and the pundits broke the habit of treating polls as if they were results. the truth is we don't know how uncompetitive tonight or this year's gonna be until people vote this year. but the largest difference of all is the most obvious, an ex president is now running. that's never happened in iowa's history for either party. if you imagine a former president running, say, in a democratic primary after previously consolidating the

party and proving they can win at the white house, you expect them to dominate any primary and pull a large majority of their party. and trump may ultimately do exactly that. but it's worth noting that the ballet political and media crowd, which largely got 2016 wrong, got the last midterm election wrong, if you followed that, and routinely is wrong in overestimating early polls, especially those very early national polls. well, that's part of the crowd, some conservatives, hyping another trump polling bonanza right now. >> trump is in dominant position in iowa. >> that polling has never historically had any candidate so far had. >> trump is doing a whole lot better in consolidating the party. >> it is really hard to imagine in the next week how trump's gonna do anything except sweep iowa. >> sweep, and that may be what happens tonight. and there are also signs that a whole lot of republican voters

are still mulling, at least a tential alternative to trump. consider even if the current iowa polls are in the ballpark, if youook at it holistically, about 46% of these republican activists who know trump well by now are mulling other candidates even after trump being president. same with new hampshire primary voting poll which does lean independent. and that is just in republican primaries right now. in the general election, a whopping 58% say that they will be dissatisfied if trump is the nominee. that's bad. a major hurdle, even apart from those trials we mention. now, that same poll found a very similar 56% equally dissatisfied of biden as a nominee. but it's hard to square the beltway top of trump's supposed resilience or dominance than the actual use of voters. and indeed, it's kind of funny if you think about the trump and biden examples we, her a lot more sometimes about it, the disaffected, uninterested view of biden won him and trump

have similar numbers on that same question i just showed you. trump is benefiting from a splinter opposition which he also benefited from in 2016. remember, he got the nomination after a long fight in a large field. in the end, he pulled less than half of all republicans who voted in those primaries. it was about 45% total or as you see there about 14 million votes. he also lost 13 states, even to someone, and i say this, respectfully and diplomatically, a politician who is not known for his popularity, senator ted cruz. >> ted cruz is your projected winner of the iowa first in the nation caucuses. >> trump underperformed and data polls and expectations. >> we finished second and i want to tell you something, i'm just honored. >> former vice president joe biden will win pelts the mania and about. according to the votes he needs, he becomes the 46th president of the u.s.. >> now, these results show that

limits at least of some polls. they are part of the picture because it is part of the process. now, jen, you are of course working in the iowa caucuses 20 years ago this month. >> hard to believe! >> it is at fact. and from there, of course, to your white house work, and now to your work. we are gonna turn to you. >> right, look, as ari says, as you just said, both can be important. the latest nbc news des moines register poll shows trump at 48%, compared to nikki haley at 20%, which is of course a jump for her. she is now advancing desantis which is a contrast in december. desantis it's at 16%. and while these numbers do show haley in second place, for the first time, as i said, they also show what looks to be a big enthusiasm gap among her supporters. the massive 40 point enthusiasm gap actually in terms of excitement trump supporters have, very enthusiastic for him, 49% have for him. and haley supporters have for her, more like 9% according to

this poll. and while desantis is close behind in the overall number, actually has a higher enthusiasm number, his numbers show he's been moving in the wrong direction. it's not what you want in terms of momentum. and in a state that he basically staked his campaign on. but as any political person knows, who did caucuses 20 years ago, again, for obama back in 2008, there's a range of factors that go to determine the outcome. and we're watching all of it, especially when the pool of voters in the iowa caucuses and the pool of likely voters is so small. and the temperature is below freezing. it's not really a matter of whether or not trump wins. i mean, a trump loss here would be shocking. but for the other candidates, a second place finish is kind of a win for any of them. at a minimum, it gives them rationale for keeping their campaign going, going on to new hampshire, south carolina, nevada, super tuesday even. it also gives them a rationale for coalescing support from the candidates who dropped out. they will at least make a pitch to them that they are the one

to take on trump. it's also important to remember that we are technically just at the beginning here. both are happening in the caucus tonight. iowa is the final decider for who the nominee will be. on three presidents since 1972 won their iowa caucuses. jimmy carter in 1976, barack obama in 2008, i was there for that one. and george w. bush in 2000. and there are a few iowa losers who went on to win, ronald reagan in 1980, george h. w. bush in 1988, and of course donald trump in 2006. specifically on the republican side, it may be losing importance because the last three eventual gop nominees all lost the iowa caucuses. and trump hasn't exactly spent a lot of time and energy himself in the state, even if it's organization has improved from the last time. but there are also a few factors that don't always fully show up in the polls that are important to talk about and really pay attention to. according to an nbc news tally, since may 23rd of last year,

trump held 38 events in 15 counties. that's by far the fewest, as i just noted. but according to experts on the ground, he has also put in place for more professional campaign operation that he had back in 2016. and at least when it comes to the republican primary electorate, his strategy is using his court appearances, as he did last week, basically campaign rallies, and it has essentially worked with the republican electorate. even though he has to spend as much time in the state. desantis has sailed 174 events in all of 99 counties. meaning, as awkward as he can be as a candidate, and he can't be super awkward, he has put in the work. he's put in the work in the state. and for people in iowa, that often matters. and desantis appears to be using much of the playbook that senator ted cruz used in winning the iowa caucuses in 2016. we will see if it actually works when he is using some things from that playbook. now, for haley, for her part, she's done 64 events in 30 counties, which is also benefiting from the support of what is called crossover democrats, who reregister to

vote for her as well as independents. that's a good percentage. she's doing the best among those groups. as unappealing as he can be, in the most diplomatic of ways, vivek ramaswamy is truly barred from the state. he's done a whopping 303 events an all 99 counties. of course, there is ad spending which nikki haley is outspending everyone else. she's been reporting about $3 million a week into tv ads. but one factor of course that none of them control is mother nature. she's making it very cold air right now. >> and shout out to mother nature, weather is one -- >> she's been making her presence known. >> not only her presence, but she is reminding us all that we are just human beings. and candidates can't control the weather, not even a president. tonight's turn up, as you probably heard, it's become a question of enthusiasm and weather preparation. >> these are icicles that just got cooked -- >> look what we did. >> 35 minutes in negative 60-degree weather here in iowa.

>> maybe, that's how they roll here in iowa. >> i think it may be an issue, especially since a lot of us are driving into the locations. >> is there any amount of coal that would keep people from coming here and vote tonight? >> alaska cold might slow us down but not iowa cold. >> if you have ever lived in a cold state, and spent some time in iowa and michigan, and you probably know about that kind of cold, competition. take it all together, though, tonight, and the one tradition that can still redeem this iowa experiment from the cold to some of the other absurdities is that a small state that host grassroots campaigning like all those county visits that jen was just walking us through, can still empower people to try to break the stranglehold, big money, big polling which you heard me criticize tonight, and big predictions which are so often wrong. you wonder why they get paid for that. that means, take it all together, and you can still sometimes on the ground get an upset.

>> i thought they will come in first or second. i was hoping to come in first. but to come into to one, against this candidate, it was a gratifying thing. >> game on! thank you so much, iowa. [applause] >> iowa, i love you! [applause] i love you! >> god bless the great state of iowa. [applause] >> in this election, we are ready to leave again. thank you, iowa. [applause] >> thank you, iowa. a lot of those people counted out. i think you know the last one. >> i worked for that guy for about ten years. i mean, it's a 250,000 people who turned out to caucus for the year that barack obama won the caucuses, which is a huge number. even as we talk about the numbers tonight, it's important to put things in perspective. >> and that goes to the grassroots, that camping which you are part of, also that turnout. and also talking about the

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people are predicting that it will be a smaller turnout then has been maybe in 2016 for example. and if that is true, our folks

are motivated to come out. i mean, they're gonna come out, you know, whether it's negative 20, whether it's a negative ten. >> joining us now is jason johnson, professor of politics and journalism at morgan state university, host of the podcast, a word on slate.com. jason, we've heard a lot of predictions from candidates about what the impact will be for a variety of things, mother nature, that excitement of supporters. what are you watching tonight in terms of things that can have an impact? and what is a pretty small electorate? >> the first thing i'm looking for is who is gonna call and say -- because there's been this narrative, jen, of people saying, well, there's one or two tickets out of iowa. look, i first? there's been this narrative, jen, of people saying, well, there's one or two tickets out of iowa. i understand the logic behind that, but there's only one ticket out of iowa. nobody's getting fluid out of iowa, no one is getting a consolation prize.

either you beat donald trump or you're the first loser. there are no moral victories against an amoral candidate. everyone who is running right now isn't even in the race to beat donald trump. that's not going to happen. they're in a race to keep their donors happy. if you get blown out by 20, 30, some ridiculous amount of points, you're going to have your big spenders say hey, ron, why are we doing this? hey, vivek, why don't you start that podcast, nikki, maybe it's not going to happen. the people who spent $30 million, more than a million on this race, i gotta see how they're going to be able to keep their funders behind them after they lose to donald trump. when you look at what i mentioned earlier, the overemphasize of polling and predictions, stacked against what you're talking about, which there is a republican elite financial support for something other than trump, and there's anywhere from as i mentioned 35 to 50 plus percent looking at alternatives depending on the sighal, how much does that

affect the spread? you think that the trump people are going around saying if they get above 13, that's the biggest margin ever. there's never been a former president running. what do you think the spread is for those people, the political people? >> i think for the political people, they're looking for a spread that's under 20. like, because there have been some polls that show trump at 70 something, 57%. if trump gets 40 and nikki haley gets 23, i think she can keep people surrounding her saying, you know what, we can push this. maybe we can push this through all the way to south carolina. but for ron desantis, i mean, he's not in that position. if he ends up being a distant third or even four, five points behind nikki haley, it's arproblem. and we talked about this all the time. we're beyond the prediction game. this isn't like guessing, prithing, throwing numbers down. these are the raw numbers that have stayed solid for a long time. here's the other part that's key. the haley campaign and her super pacs have spent about $30

million. desantis has spent nearly $30 million. tim scott spent $14 million. you're looking at a situation where donald trump may have spent less than nikki haley and ron desantis and he's still going to beat them by 15 points. no one is going to see a return on investment if that ends up happening. people are looking for a spread of less than 13, very likely, to stay funding these campaigns. that's what i think the haley campaign should be focus on now, and ron desantis, this might be his final night. >> let's talk about ron desantis for a moment. does he have to get, if he's in third, close to haley, can he make a pitch to his supporters that he's going to stay in? what does he need to do to feel viable, at least to the people who are going to fund his flights to new hampshire and other states? >> jen, i hate to overuse this lyric, but there's 99 counties and he may not win one. >> wow. >> ari loves that. he wrote it down. >> that's sean carter. got it. >> he's going to use it later

tonight. bet on it. >> he has to at least get like marco rubio numbers. there's got to be a few yellow counties here and there that ron desantis can go back to his donors and say, hey, there's a reason to stick with me. if he can't show he can pull in counties, there's no enthusiasm for him anymore and no money. at this point, money might be more important than enthusiasm. >> yeah, jason, i don't know if you heard this expression. sometimes you see it on signs. slippery when wet. i never understood that. wet means slippery. wet, it's a synonym. what about slippery when icy? because it is another part that's hanging over all this. we love to talk about numbers and history because that's the kind of people we maybe are, but the weather matters. take a look at what candidates are saying. if we have it.

>> we could summarize it. >> no? >> i'm asking you to brave the elements. >> just don't go by the polls. the polls show we're leading by so much, but we have to get out there, every one of us has to get out there. >> it's going to be negative 15, but i'm going to be out there. and i want you to go out there. >> could weather matter more than the spending and the ads you just referenced? >> it could, ari, especially when you're talking about some of these smaller rural counties. again, this is a matter of where you are. there may be some places like they have cleaned the roads, it's only one vote, but again, i said this before. when you're talking about tremendously cold weather, if i don't think my candidate has a chance, then why am i going to brave the weather? i don't think ron desantis is going to win, even though he's my guy, i don't think nikki is going to win, even though she's my candidate. the only way this could flip the other way is if trump supporters say he's got it in the bag and

they don't show up and we get an upset. >> jason johnson, on more than one topic with more than one reference. we thank you. we're here and we want to remind everyone, we're five minutes away from rachel taking over special coverage. steve kornacki at the big board. we'll also be around. that's coming after this break. we'll be right back. -really? -get a quote at progresivecommercial.com. i'm orlando and i'm living with hiv. i don't have to worry about daily hiv pills because i switched to every-other-month cabenuva. for adults who are undetectable, cabenuva is the only complete long-acting hiv treatment you can get every other month. it's two injections from a healthcare provider. now when i have people over, hiv pills aren't on my mind. don't receive cabenuva if you're allergic to its ingredients, or if you're taking certain medicines, which may interact with cabenuva. serious side effects include allergic reactions, post-injection reactions, liver problems, and depression. if you have a rash and other allergic reaction symptoms,

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. >> big not, what are you watching? >> does trump get over 50? does haley expand her coalition beyond independents, never trump republicans, democrats. and is desantis still in the race. >> which jason talked about. does this become a problem for desantis depending on the actual turnout. jen and i have enjoyed spending time with you. our full team coverage led by rachel maddow starts right now. thest