. >> big not, what are you watching? >> does trump get over 50? does haley expand her coalition beyond independents, never trump republicans, democrats. and is desantis still in the race. >> which jason talked about. does this become a problem for desantis depending on the actual turnout. jen and i have enjoyed spending time with you. our full team coverage led by rachel maddow starts right now. the first vote of the 2024

presidential election. the first american election with a front-runner indicted for conspiring to steal the last one. dividing his time between the campaign trail and the courtroom. >> i think he's got a lot going on. >> i think the d.c. circuit will rule against him. >> in the frigid cold. >> the coldest in modern history. >> temperatures so low, they bring new meaning to the term negative campaigning. republicans in iowa will make their choice. >> donald trump is a threat to democracy. >> tonight, special election coverage, with joy reid, chris hayes, alex wagner, ari melber, jen psaki, lawrence o'donnell, stephanie ruhle, plus campaign experts and steve kornacki with results and analysis at the big board. >> once every four years the big one. >> msnbc's special coverage of the iowa republican caucus, the start of the 2024 presidential

election, is right now. >> and here we go. ready or not. time to stop worrying about it. time to start actually doing it. good evening. i'm rachel maddow of msnbc headquarters with an all-star roster of the news business's best and brightest as the 2024 presidential election officially begins tonight. it's 7:00 p.m. on the east coast, that means it's 6:00 p.m. in iowa where the doors are now open at caucus sites around the state. caucusgoers are filing in, just one hour from now at 8:00 p.m. eastern, 7:00 p.m. local time, those caucus doors will close and the caucus will get under way with iowa republicans making their choice for president. candidates nikki haley and ron desantis spent today continuing to barnstorm the state, urging

supporters to brave the deep cold to show up to caucus tonight. in the iowa caucuses there is no absentee voting, no voting by mail, no voting by proxy of any kind. you must be there in person and at the appointed time, no exceptions. republican front-runner donald trump also traveled to iowa this weekend to campaign. i note that because it's an unusual thing for the former president. in case we needed further reminding that this is a weird election year, last week, while trump's rivals were crisscrossing the state drumming up votes, he opted not to campaign in iowa and instead to stay mostly on the east coast attending hearings in two of his legal cases even though he was not required legally to be in court. that said, if the polling turns out to be predictive, that's a big if, but if tonight's results follow along the lines of the late polling in the state of iowa, donald trump could win the iowa caucuses tonight by the widest margin of victory of any non-incumbent president ever.

the polls say it's possible. the final nbc news des moines register poll of the race shows trump with a nearly 30-point lead. that said, the final poll before the iowa caucuses has been wrong before. in 2016, trump led that final poll, but it was ted cruz who went on to win the caucuses. in 2012, the leader of that final poll was mitt romney, but it was rick santorum who won the caucuses. barely. there's also some history in the iowa caucuses of obscure, sdiflt to discern results and things going procedurally haywire. in 2012, those mitt romney, rick santorum caucuses and then eight years later, the 2020 democratic caucuses, in both of those instances, there were just infamous messes from a combination of human error and technological glitches. you could still start a bar fight in decora tonight by claiming to know who won the democratic caucuses in iowa in 2020.

was it mayor pete, was it bernie? do you want to bet? tonight in iowa, everybody is worried about the icy cold weather and what effect that might have on turnout, how to keep people safe in these conditions. happily, though, there have been no signs thus far of any technical problems, any logistical problems with the running of the caucuses themselves. now, one wild card to watch for tonight, how many democrats and independent voters will be among the caucusgoers. it is a feature of the iowa caucus system that while only registered iowa republicans can participate in the caucuses tonight, anybody who is a registered iowa voter, who is an independent or a democrat, if they want to, they can change their registration to republican tonight at their caucus site. tonight, and then cast their republican ballot. with no presidential nominating caucus on the democratic side tonight, nobody really knows if a sizable number of democrats and independents might decide to participate in the republican caucuses.

if they do that, what effect might that have on the outcome. don't know. polls do show that candidate nikki haley is drawing a significant portion of her support in iowa from voters who do not always identify as republicans, but again, that's more of a wild card than any sort of a predictive factor. there's lots to watch for tonight. lots at stake, lots of way in which tonight's iowa caucuses are like no other. so let's get to it. let's head over first to steve kornacki at the big board. steve, we know we're going to keep you busy tonight. jow been hydrating all day. where do things stand in iowa? >> let's start with the blank map. 99 counties that some time in the 8:00 eastern, 7:00 central iowa time hour will begin filling up. just to give you a sense of how the timeline usually works, when do we start getting results? 8:00 eastern, they close the doors at these caucus locations. in 2016, the last competitive

republican caucus in iowa, 8:36 p.m. is when we got our first results from behind some of those closed doors, and 9:00 to 10:00 eastern hour is when the lion's share of the vote got reported out. if that's any help, but again, some time after 8:00 eastern, 7:00 central, these counties will begin lighting up. in terms of expectations, you were starting to set them, based on our final nbc news des moines register poll. here it is. this came out saturday night, the traditional des moines register precaucus poll, the weekend before. you said trump could be in line tonight based on the polling we have seen here and many other polls to break some records. just to set those thresholds potentially for trump. that 28-point lead he has over nikki haley for second place in the poll, a 28-point margin, before tonight, in a competitive iowa caucus with no incumbent president, what is the biggest margin anyone has won by? that would be 12 points. bob dole in 1988, 37, pat robertson, 25.

that's the biggest margin. in 2000, what's the biggest share of a vote in iowa. 2000, george w. bush got 41% when he beat steve forbes by 11 points. again, trump could beat that margin record, could beat that vote share record. all of the polling has been suggesting that, and frankly, if he doesn't clear those two thresholds that's probably a disappointment for his campaign. those seem like modest thresholds given where the polling has been. other things we can show you, the race for second place. nikki haley and ron desantis, it seems like a race for second place. haley in the final poll catching desantis. she had been running in third place. core strengths, we'll show you how this translates into the map. the recipe in modern republican caucuses in iowa has been you win the evangelical vote, you win iowa. mike huckabee did it in 2008. rick santorum did it in 2012. and ted cruz did it against donald trump in 2016. why did donald trump lose iowa in 2016?

because he lost the evangelical vote. the evangelical vote in 2016 was nearly two-thirds of every vote cast. 64% of caucusgoers in 2016 were evangelical christians. trump lost them by 12 points to ted cruz. remember at the very beginning, there was a lot of skepticism, resistance toward trump among evangelicals. the story of the last eight years is how that has changed. a political bond has grown there. look in the final poll from losing evangelicals by 12 eight years ago, trump in our poll with an outright majority of them. ron desantis who has tried to cultivate the evangelical vote, getting major endorsements from evangelical leaders, campaigning aggressively, finds himself 30 points behind trump among this group. if desantis is going to have a surprisingly good night, he has to do a lot better with evangelicals and trump has to do a lot worse than this final poll has shown. in terms of nikki haley's chances for having a good night tonight, you mentioned this. independents. independents, they can come in. they can fill out those cards.

how many typically do? about 20% of iowa republican caucusgoers are typically self-identified independents. for that matter, about 2% are typically self-identified democrats. in our final poll, nikki haley had been at 23% with independents a month ago. she jumped ten points in our polling, breathing down trump's back, when it comes to independent voters here. there's some counties where that could come in particularly big tonight. we'll get to those as the night goes on. then there is that question here of weather, the turnout, will the turnout be low? will it disproportionately affect one candidate? everybody has a theory of how this is going to play out tonight, but common one is to look at this from our poll here. we asked supporters of each candidate the highest level of enthusiasm, are you extremely or very enthusiastic about your candidate. on that question, nearly 9 of 10 trump supporters, 88%, say they're in the highest category. 62% for desantis. look at this, almost 50 points below trump's number, nikki

haley at just 39%. so you look at that, that's one of the possibilities. on a freezing cold night, these haley supporters don't seem that nuts about her. haeb they shrug and say i'll stay home and she falls down a bit and maybe desantis and trump are the beneficiaries of that. another possibility here, and i think you were alluding to this, look frahm our poll what we found about haley supporters. more than three-quarters of them, 77%, have a negative view of donald trump. big reason for that. she's attracting those independents we showed you and democrats. half, half in our final poll of nikki haley's supporters identify as independents and democrats. that raises a second turnout possibility for tonight. a bit of a counterintuitive one. they're saying they're not that enth enthusiastic. maybe their interest is driven by donald trump and their opposition to him. is that the motivation that gets them out to the polls in the dead of winter on a frigid cold

record-settingly chilly night in iowa? are we asking the wrong question about being enthusiastic about haley? is it really enthusiastic about being against donald trump? if it's that, haley might have a chance at second place. >> i have a question for you about what is new about this year. we have sometimes seen an imbalance, frequently seen an imbalance where one party either has an incumbent running for re-election or otherwise just not much interest in one party's caucuses and the other has a competitive race. this time we have that sort of on steroids with the democrats having effectively abandoned the iowa caucuses. they're not having a presidential caucus tonight. they're going to use a primary by mail instead. with there being no democratic presidential contest, i know you said 20% of independents, 20% of the republican caucus turnout has been independents in the past 2% has been democrats. is there anything from the past that tells us about what the

dynamics might be of a larger proportion of these iowa republican caucusgoers being independents or democrats? how that might affect the race, how they might behave, how it might affect the overall course of the caucuses tonight? >> the best example would be 2012, barack obama was running for re-election. that was the race where it was mitt romney, rick santorum, the last time they had republican caucuses in iowa, there were democratic and republican caucuses at the same time. it was a record setting year for republicans. the biggest turnout they ever had for one of these caucuses in 2016. the democrats had a much bigger number, but the democrats had a smaller number, excuse me, the democrats' record year was 2008. go to 2012 because there was only a competitive republican caucus and the number was 121,000 in 2012. did that say something about the field being less exciting to republicans than the 2016 was?

it probably did. but in terms of the composition of democrats and independents in that electorate, it wasn't markedly different than what we saw in 2016, what we saw in 2008. we generally see about 20% there and just a handful of democrats. i would note, if you look further in the process, we can talk about this much later in the night, but if you look to the next state, new hampshire, a primary state, a much bigger turnout in general. they do allow independents to participate in either party's primary there. there's sort of the democratic primary, but not really one. and in 2012, we saw in new hampshire, where independentses were allowed to vote and there was no competitive democratic primary in new hampshire. independents made up 45% of the republican electorate back in 2012. that was the year mitt romney won the state easily. so we'll see tonight. i'm very interested as much as you are to see what the independent democratic share in

new hampshire. when you look at the history of new hampshire, deep, deep numbers you don't see in other state, participation of independent voters, that's where i'm really looking for. we'll see what happens. >> thank you very much. we're going to go now to iowa, where one of the biggest caucus sites in the state of iowa. jacob soboroff is there for us. jacob, how has your day win? how are you looking forward to this evening? and can you tell us what going to happen behind you tonight? >> reporter: oh, man. it's balmy now, like negative 1. earlier today, actual temperature around negative 12 degrees and the windchill was like negative 37. as far as how am i going? i'm feeling great because the temperature is scorching compared to earlier in the day. this is what's known as a super caucus location. they call it a super caucus location, this is a high school, everyone from this county votes at the ottumwa high school

location. i want to give you a look. even if it it doesn't look like a lot of people yet, i'm not nearly done with the tour. we have a long way to go. this is the auditorium at ottumwa high school. the people are starting to fill in. it gives you memories of doing high school musicals and all that. i'm seeing stickers for trump, pins for desantis, i see one, i pick nikki. this is where the campaigns are going to convince people to caucus for their candidate. the caucus itself doesn't happen here because there are so many precincts, 22 in fact, in this location. we're going to go downstairs. we're swimming upstream as people come into the caucus location. ottumwa high school, rachel, is really cool. if you're a fan of democracy, you have to be a fan of what's happening here tonight because, by the way, 100 years, they're celebrating bulldog pride. excuse me, guys. all the caucuses are going to

take place down in the different precincts here. on the second level of the school. and the reason is because unlike the democratic caucus, you'll remember eight years ago i was here and people were going to their different preference groups in the big gymnasium and the fieldhouse in the eastern part of the state. this is the exact opposite of how they do things. these are different classrooms and they're not only different classrooms but they're going to be different precincts in just over an hour's time after the speeches. people are going to come in here. they're going to cast their ballots inside these rooms and they're going to tabulate those ballots in these rooms, and it's a secret ballot. they drop it in the box, and they pull it out once they tabulate it and bring a form. that form is going to come down this way. as i walk you down to where the ballots are going to be tabulated, i want to say, here in this county, this is where former president trump did quite well in 2016. steve knows better than i do, but 35% or 36% of the vote. what we're looking for closely

tonight, good evening, all the way to the top floor, guys. what we're looking for closely tonight is if he hits around the 50% number, that nbc news des moines register poll shows. we're also looking at turnout because in 2016, there were 1900 people who showed up here. they said maybe 1,000 tonight, if the weather doesn't deter people. as you can see, rachel, there's a lot going on here right now. we have different preference groups. this is steven, i met him earlier. nice to see you. we're live on the air. i'll talk to you in a minute. this is steven's first caucus. he's from georgia. excited to caucus for the first time? >> this is the first one. >> excited? >> having fun. >> good. thank you. i'll see you in a minute. ultimately, they're going to bring all those tabulation forms down here and what they're going to do with them is fill out this piece of paper, i guess you could call it, you can see all of the 22 different precincts are here. they will tabulate the totals. that will then be the unofficial

results for the county. they will report them to the state party and then ultimately, those results will be released to all of us. it's going to be a long process. it's going to end around 8:00, 9:00. steve said 8:36 last time around. we'll head upstairs to watch the speeches, head to the classroom and bring it to you. >> i have one logistical question. i'm dizzy from following you through the high school, but i think i have a sense of the geography there. >> sorry. >> it's good. as people are arriving, do they have to do anything outside? i know people have to show an id in order to check in. some people may be changing their registrations or updating their registrations so they can caucus tonight. do they have to queue up outside in the cold or can they come inside as soon as they get there? i'm worried about the weather. >> actually, why don't we look together? i have been upstairs for a while. i wanted to see what's happening out there.

i don't have my big jacket on, but we're going outside just for a second. >> if you let a door close behind you without your coat on, your whole family is going to be very angry, and we will too. >> i want to give a shout out to ian the snow plow guy. it's nippy. yeeven the snow plow guy says he does it in shorts and flip-flops. holy mackerel, it's chilly out here. this is the scene outside. people are trickling in. these iowans, they're resilient. they say that this isn't going to stop them. and there's no real check-in or id check right here. but people are on their way. >> okay, back inside with you now before you get frozen to the door. >> i'm going. i'm going. >> thank you, jacob. like christmas vacation, ralphy stuck to the poll. jacob soboroff stuck to a door. we have much more to come from iowa when we return. we have reporters at caucus sites all across the state. we have steve kornacki who is going to have our first look at tonight's entrance polls which

will give us some sense of who is turning out and what they care about. a whole night of coverage coming up. so much to get to. very excited. stay with us. when i was diagnosed with h-i-v, i didn't know who i would be. but here i am... being me. keep being you... and ask your healthcare provider about the number one prescribed h-i-v treatment, biktarvy. biktarvy is a complete, one-pill, once-a-day treatment used for h-i-v in many people whether you're 18 or 80. with one small pill, biktarvy fights h-i-v to help you get to undetectable—and stay there whether you're just starting or replacing your current treatment. research shows that taking h-i-v treatment as prescribed and getting to and staying undetectable prevents transmitting h-i-v through sex. serious side effects can occur, including kidney problems and kidney failure. rare, life-threatening side effects include a buildup of lactic acid and liver problems. do not take biktarvy if you take dofetilide or rifampin.

tell your healthcare provider about all the medicines and supplements you take, if you are pregnant or breastfeeding, or if you have kidney or liver problems, including hepatitis. if you have hepatitis b do not stop taking biktarvy without talking to your healthcare provider. common side effects were diarrhea, nausea, and headache. no matter where life takes you, biktarvy can go with you. talk to your healthcare provider today. with the majority of my patients with sensitivity i see irritated gums and weak enamel. sensodyne sensitivity gum and enamel it relieves sensitivity helps restore gum health and rehardens enamel. i am a big advocate of recommending things that i know work. (♪♪) there's two things a young man wanna be - a cowboy or a gangster. and a gangster's outta style. i got back to my roots... we come from a long line of cowboys. my grandfather, my great-grandfather, my aunt even rode horses. when i see all of us out here on this ranch,

i see how far our legacy can go. (♪♪)

get over here kids. i see how far our legacy time for today's lesson. wow. -whoa. what are those? these are humans. they rely on something called the internet to survive. huh, powers out. [ gasp ] are they gonna to die? worse, they are gonna get bored. [ gasp ] wait look! they figured out a way to keep the internet on. yeah! -nature finds a way. [ grunt ] stay connected when the power goes out,

with storm ready wifi from xfinity. and see migration in theaters now. > so iowans know how to deal with cold weather. and it's not like there have not been cold iowa caucuses before. maybe not this cold.

but cold, quite cold. cold enough that in 1972, with a blizzard thrown into the mix, some polling places in the iowa caucuses that year had to postpone their caucuses by a day or two. that made it very complicated to figure out who had won and when. it was cold enough in 2008 that hillary clinton's campaign sent voters snow shovels, not sure what most people knew what to make about that one. very, very cold caucuses are a thing in iowa. it's not just this year. but it's bad enough this year that nobody quite knows what the impact is going to be. bad enough this year that here on election night in the absence of a hurricane, we must nevertheless be joined live by meteorologist bill karins. bill, thank you for being here with us on a rare election night weather emergency. what are the conditions like for caucusgoers who are getting to their caucus locations right now? >> as you said, iowans are tough. i heard a lady earlier, she said blizzard, slow me down.

cold, i'm fine. just to give you context on this. the record cold, coldest it's ever been recorded in human history is in elkhart iowa, negative 47. that's the bar. so that was 1996. it wasn't even all that long ago either. this is frigid. this is dangerously cold if you get caught outside and you're not bundled up properly. hopefully in iowa, you should. i plotted just about every major city and town on this map that we have here to give you a look. it's not just one spot, the whole entire state. the lowest i have seen is negative 33. in ames, negative 24 windchill. the warmest is in burlington at minus 12. what does this all mean for tonight? the people who were going to trudge through a blizzard to caucus, they're going to be there. the people maybe on the fence, maybe going for their first one ever. should they go, do they want to leave the kids at home? this is what they're dealing with. des moines is negative 3. the coldest ever in des moines for a caucus was 16 degrees.

that was in 2016. that's what we're comparing this to. this is much colder than before. that's why people are wondering how many people will not show up out there. you do worry about frostbite if someone gets stuck out there, the roads are still slippery. those are the concerns, rachel. by iowan standards, i bet you have a hard time finding people who said they didn't show up because of the cold. >> bill karins, thank you very much. it's been so much talk about this over the course of the day, and it's like, yes, it's going to have an impact. do we know what the impact is going to be? no, we don't. but there are a bunch of wild cards. iowa caucuses happen every four years but this does seem like there's a lot of things that are new this year, from the indicted front-runner, to the democrats giving up on caucuses and not having them. to the crazy weather that we have never had before. to the incredible prospect about lots of independent and democratic voters having a very large say in who they're going to pick.

it does -- i know everybody is saying, oh, trump's going to win, just a question of how much. where is the suspense? i feel like there's a ton of suspense tonight. >> well, i would first of all like to thank the republican party of iowa for scheduling their caucuses on mlk day so i could violate the culture and work on mlk day. but i'm thankful michael steele is violating it with me. we're holding hand and violating the black rules together. together we are marching, not toward freedom. >> i'm with her. >> yes. you know what, i think the most important thing about the iowa caucuses tonight, with all due respect to bill karins is not the weather. it is that the guy who is probably going to win faces 91 criminal counts. and when i ask regular folks, what would you like to know tonight? i asked one of my dear friends who is a normal person who thinks about politics from a normal person's point of view. i have one or two. >> i can't find them anymore.

>> she's got the last one. >> i'll introduce you so we can share. she made a really good point. the question she had, which i would like to throw to my friend michael steele, is what happens if trump gets the nomination and then, i don't know, the supreme court rules that he's not eligible to be president of the united states? or somehow one of his trials happens and he gets convicted? so i will throw it to you. i don't know if people are gaming it out that way in iowa, but they're not just going in and punching. they're having to game theory a little more. what happens? >> i don't think they're game theorying, doing too much game theory on that part of it. this is an emotional reaction for a lot of these voters. they are emotionally connected to trump. they are emotionally defending him. their vote is an expression of that defense. so you're going to see a lot of that. but let's play out your scenario. what happens in the first

instance that we should all get buckets of popcorn because it's going to be a wild thing to watch unfold, starting with the fact that the rnc at that point would presumably be in the process of setting its rules for the upcoming convention. that process is generally controlled by, guess who, the potential or least punitive nominee of the party who in this case is donald trump. he's got a lot of support on that committee. in the process of rewriting the rules to deal with the fact that this potential nominee is not in play, the fight will begin first on the rules committee that would then, two things, one, either allow access for someone else to step in, right? if he's picked a vice presidential candidate, that's easy. we'll default to that person. or if not, then you're talking about opening it back up. and two, once you do that, who

gets to play? does a chris christie get to come back in? does a ron desantis get to come back in, folks who have already dropped out? >> to compete for the nomination. >> it wouldn't be automatically the number two? that's the question. >> there is no number two unless he picks a number two. >> i mean the person who finished second. >> is that why none of them are going for him, why ron desantis and nikki haley aren't really running against him? issue after issue, they don't touch him. you think about people vote about the economy. iowa is a state filled with farmers. trump's anti-trade policies, his trade war with china was devastating for farmers in iowa. we tripled our farm aid. i haven't heard nikki haley or ron desantis say this one single time. my question is, are they holding back because they want to stay close and comfortable to be their chosen number two. >> absolutely, you don't want to cut off your nose to spite your face. >> even though he's the guy you're competing against. >> even though he's the guy you're competing with.

it literally is three levels of chess play going on between the campaigns and their efforts to try to secure the nomination. because the potential nominee is so weak in terms of the political process. like you just noted, anything can come in and it derail that. so what better position to be in than be the default once the derailing begins. so you don't want to isolate yourself from a lot of the members of the 168 members of the committee that are going to have a direct say in whether or not the rules are even going to be written to allow you to play. and then once that process happens, then you want to make sure you have friends on the floor. here's the deal, it doesn't in one sense matter because from the floor, once you get to the floor, folks start making all kinds of noise. all kinds of noise to disrupt the process from within. and we saw a little bit of that in the democratic convention where some delegates were outdone with the way the process was unfolding and on that

wednesday before hillary's speech started making some floor noises to try to prevent her eventual nomination. so as much as the rules committee and the overall convention leadership tries to contain and control the process, there are doors and rooms in which people can crawl through to disrupt it. >> you have to remember we have never chose a presidential candidate through a nominee through a primary process until 1972. democratic party was the first party to do it in 1972. no previous president was ever chosen through this process. it all happened beginning day one of the convention. >> and you have this, to joy's point here, there's sort of two levels of strange surrealality to this. >> only two? >> at least two. one is that the point you made about how desantis and haley never really go at trump. this sense in which their theory of the case and a lot of them is this we're going to run, and

then like, i don't know, maybe something happens to trump. that's not a crazy thing to think. first of all, he's 70 whatever, 77 years old, and he's facing 91 counts, and a possible constitutional challenge. like, i don't know. >> and he lives on cheeseburgers and coke. >> run for the nomination, see what happens. there's that. then there's one of the most interesting pieces of polling in the last few weeks which says the majority of americans don't think he'll be the nominee. there's some sense in the ether, is it really going to be this guy? then when you get to republicans, there's this sort of road runner effect which he always seems to get away. so inside the republican world, it's like, well, they never catch him. like, they haven't caught him yet and they're not going to catch him this time. outside in the non-internal republican world, it's like, they're not going to make him the nominee, right? >> like 2015. >> but the point being there's this huge disconnect between the way the republican voters think about it, and part of that also

has to do with faith. i heard a bunch of interviews with voters who are like, i don't think god is going to let him get convicted. >> that's an important point, to your point, because the reason the republican party doesn't catch him is because you have a lot of people within the party that are putting up the road blocks that make it more difficult to catch him. part of it is the way they go after the people who do, part is the general course of the flow of the party itself. i mean, there are a lot of little variables that wind up causing folks to stumble, and trump knows it. and so what he does is he tries to very carefully place those road blocks, which is why he uses the court system the way he does, why he uses the rhetoric the way he does, why he plays to the lesser bases inside the party. >> the final thing i'll say here, thinking of the perspective of the democratic party, if the front runner had 91 counts of indictments, all anyone would be talking about everywhere is what is wrong with you? you can't nominate the guy he's going to face criminal trial. every op-ed, i mean, it would be

endless. that would be the story. in this contest, ron desantis kind of said something in a debate of maybe it's not the best idea. other than that, totally opposite. >> by the way, the calendar, and the reason i bring it up is this is supposed to be traditionally, we would say this is the beginning and talk about it because it's a delegate build. look at the timeline. we're talking about a case that could go before the supreme court, when, by april, and then by april, maybe we get an idea. typically, the republican party that you hit the magic number of you need 1215 delegates out of 2429 to get the nomination. typically, republicans hit that number in may or june. you could be looking at a month before he hits the magic number, he gets the bad supreme court decision that says he's ineligible. then their convention is in june or july. or june.

july. so this is all a shorter timeline than you think. >> what it means to the forest among these trees is there's a rational process that is happening and the other thing that is looming behind everybody making rational decisions is there might be a meteor. everybody has plans for both of those. tonight, the meteor is still floating around, and we do not know if it will leave orbit and destroy us. so up next, we will go back to a caucus site, and hear from a voter who tells us that they changed their mind about which candidate to support recently. this is a thing that happens. we have steve kornacki back at the big board just ahead. stay with us. us if you have chronic kidney disease you can reduce the risk of kidney failure with farxiga.

because there are places you'd rather be. farxiga can cause serious side effects, including ketoacidosis that may be fatal, dehydration, urinary tract, or genital yeast infections, and low blood sugar. a rare, life-threatening bacterial infection in the skin of the perineum could occur. stop taking farxiga and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this infection, an allergic reaction, or ketoacidosis. ♪ far-xi-ga ♪

welcome back to our special coverage of the iowa caucuses. joining us now from a caucus site in west des moines is nbc news correspondent ali vitali. this suburb of des moines is in dallas county, one of nikki haley's target counties. the caucus site also happens to be in the same building as her planned victory party. what are you seeing? >> reporter: rachel, you have to love when a plan comes together and you're at the candidate's event and also able to visit a caucus site next door. sometimes that happens out here, and we're thankful given the

temperatures. if you look around, people are starting to file in here. this is the period where they go, they give their id, they check in. and then they're able to take a seat in this area behind us where you're seeing this one room fits about 100 people, and most of these seats are full here. this is of course next door to where nikki haley is going to be having her party, so not everyone in this room of course is a nikki haley voter, and in fact, we have managed to talk to several different folks including dawson. can you stand up for me. we can talk about that after. you're here with ron desantis, but you worked for the trump campaign before. talk to me about the evolution of what got you here. >> i think there's one candidate who has stood his ground and followed through on 100% of his promises. unfortunately, that's nat donald trump. we him for four years. we saw what he is. honestly, he didn't fulfill just about any of his promises. we don't have a border wall. our debt was raised by almost $8 trillion. i'm looking for somebody who is

a true conservative and going to deliver those results that we desperately need here in this country. >> it's not like you're thinking about trump through the lens of 2016 to 2020. this is a decision you made after 2020 in part because of the election results and maybe the reaction he had to them? >> yeah, it's always tough when you're running around telling everybody that an election was stolen while begging them to vote for you. we saw in 2022 how trump's endorsements really hurt the republican party. we were supposed to have this red wave. that happened in two places, florida and iowa. kim reynolds goes around the state, she says if you love what we're doing in iowa, you're going to love what ron desantis is going to do. >> you're a younger voter here. typically on caucus night, we look to the older crowd to show up. you're sitting here and you're not alone in this room. i mean, what are you sensing among your colleagues? >> yeah, i would say there's a lot of young folks who are also ready for change. the last thing we want is a rematch between joe biden and donald trump. that's one we'll lose. we're looking for that change. we're looking at folks like ron

desantis, several other young republican colleagues have kind of signaled to me they're also planning on supporting ron desantis tonight. >> thank you for talking to us. as you were sitting here, you were talking with a vivek ramaswamy supporter. this is one of those moments where you see iowans coming in. even with competing allegiances to candidates, but it's a very community based event. the voting process is secret, just before he talked to us, he was in the corner writing on a piece of paper where he was voting for. of course, no surprise there. he just told us it was ron desantis. but this is a pretty good sense of what it looks like. i have to tell you, if we're thinking about the cold, a lot of folks are having an easy time getting in. we're seeing a lot of jackets and puffers, but all of that is par for the course this time of year in iowa as caucus night starts to heat up. >> ali vitali for us tonight. thanks in dallas county, outside des moines. appreciate that. we'll be back with you as things get under way. remind you of the way these things go is the caucus doors will close in about 14 minutes.

everybody inside will be checked in. as an eligible iowa resident and as a registered republican, even if you're only registered as a republican as of tonight, they will then all hear speeches, and then they cast a ballot. it is an anonymous ballot, a secret ballot. not like in the democratic caucuses where everyone in the room can see where you're siding with. that might have also been an important factor. lots of anecdotally we have been having lot of reports that some people are uncomfortable. they feel threatened about talking about their preferences, particularly related to donald trump, as voters in iowa and other places. the fact this is a secret ballot tonight in the iowa caucuses may again be one of those factors where it has a hard to predict impact. joining us now is nbc news correspondent priscilla thompson in sioux county. where donald trump had a not

great showing in 2016. but is hoping things will turn around for him this time. priscilla, what are you seeing? >> reporter: yeah, things may very well be turning around for him because just take a look at this line. it is almost out the door here with just 13 minutes to go until folks need to be in the room, ready to caucus, and the line just keeps going. folks here trying to get checked in so that they can get inside this room to make those presidential preferences known. and i want to introduce you all to michael, because michael, you are one of those folks who backed ted cruz in 2016, helped him win this county. mind you, the county where donald trump performed the worst. who are you backing tonight? >> i'm going trump. he's my guy. so i feel like we have to stand with trump and go in the direction he wants to go. >> tell me why. what do you like about him? >> i like that he stands for something. i feel like the guy can't be bought. i look at trump and the cool thing is he recognized jerusalem as the capital of israel. he also put supreme court

justices in place that honestly, like, saved abortion. so he did a lot of great things for our nation, and i feel like he has a record of winning. >> i think you said earlier you felt like he was bringing the country back to godly principles. >> i do, the least likely candidate. i'm a believer myself, and it's like i have a past as well. he has a past as well. i believe that god is using him for a purpose and reason. and you know, god picks unusual people to do great works. and i think he's picking trump for a great work in our day. >> do you think he's going to win tonight? >> i do. >> and there you have it, rachel. we talked to a lot of folks here tonight that do believe that. as you mentioned, heavily evangelical community here. there's worship music playing inside the caucus room, and a lot of folks saying they're backing donald trump this time around. rachel. >> fascinating. priscilla thompson for us in sioux county. good to hear that perspective

from an individual voter here. something we have been talking about among ourselves on set and i know a lot of reporters have been covering it in iowa, talking about the profound transformation in iowa specifically, that northwest corner of iowa, heavily evangelical, quite resistant to trump in 2016. a big part of the reason that trump lost in 2016, even though he had been ahead in the polls there. and evangelical voters swallowing whatever concerns they had about trump and deciding he's their candidate. and doing so for faith related reasons despite his own sort of lack of personal journey along those lines. fascinating stuff. steve kornacki is with us now. in iowa, we get him on their way in, and -- we had folks out there surveying caucus attendees as they make their way in. they are still in the process of doing that. they will continue that for the next ten minutes.

what we're getting here -- wave of exit poll data. there's still gonna be some more data that comes into these numbers. there's subject to a bit of flex, but i think we're getting a good idea here of some of the composition of these caucus goers as they hadn't. so let's show you a couple different categories where we've got numbers. the first one we see here is education. a 52% of the attendees so far with no college degree, 48% with a college degree. that's negligible different than 2016. there's no surprise on that one. if we take a look at party i.d., this is a little interesting. again, we were talking about this. you can show up, if you're not a republican, you can fill out a card, you can participate in the caucuses. how many non-republicans are gonna do that? and i first wave, we see 16% identifying as independents. in 2016, the last competitive republican caucus, that number was 20. it's coming in a little under that. we see in 2016, self-identified democrats in the republican caucuses or 2%. they've ticked up to three.

and the republicans, seeing their 81%, it was 79% back in 2016. about what we expect, then that initial wave there, a little lighter in independents than we would typically see. a couple other categories we can show you here, ideology. here, you've seen, at least in this initial wave, a couple significant shifts from 2016. the biggest is this. people calling themselves not just conservative, but very conservative. the combined number of somewhat and very conservative is about the same as 2016. it's three points higher. but this number in 2016 of the most conservative, very conservative, was 40% in 2016. now, 54% of caucus goers describing themselves that way. moderates in 2016, the self described moderates for 14% of the electorate, right, now 9% entering these polls. there is, again, we talked about, democrats coming just here to cast some kind of vote against trump, it was one person self liberal in 2016.

40% tonight. that could be justice statistical blip, or maybe there's a small sliver there who really are just democrats coming out to sign some kind of message to trump. most important issue, we didn't ask this question exactly the same way the last time around, but you can see here, immigration actually topping the economy here. certainly, on the republican side, there's been a lot of passion around this issue, and, i thought we had it here. we asked an interesting question here about candidate quality. what matters most to you in making up your mind here. and again, it's a little different than 16, but one question was the same. it had to do with electability. in 2016, 21% of republican caucus goers and iowa said that electability, the ability to win the general election, was their top issue. and in 2016, they want to guests trump by -- tonight, remember, the theory of rubio's campaign, and hail, east and everyone who ran against trump for that matter, is that republicans would deem him unelectable, that would cause this cascade away from

trump. -- the ability to beat joe biden is the top concern here. candidate quality is just 10%, so less than half of what it was back in 2016. >> wow. all right, we have a lot to talk about in a moment. we have to take our last quick break before we come back for the start of the caucuses. obviously, bottom line there is these are nightmare results from the entrance polls for a candidate like nikki haley. but we'll see. minutes away from starting the iowa caucuses, big night on msnbc. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ get all-day and all-night heartburn acid prevention with just one pill a day. choose acid prevention. choose nexium. this is a live look at a

congregation in davenport, iowa. we're just about five minutes away, four minutes away, from the doors closing on the yuck iowa caucuses beginning. when the doors closed at the

top of the hour, these caucuses will get underway. they'll all proceed at their own pace, but we expect things over the next two hours to proceed to having results from all over the state of iowa. guys, we just heard from steve kornacki about the first entrance poll results. if you're the nikki haley campaign, i feel like that's the worst possible news towards the end of the campaign. the number of, go ahead, steve. >> all the indicators you're looking at for trump's strength are indicated in those entrance polls. people surprised us, but again, people identifying themselves as very conservative, that where it, again, there's a bunch of words in the trump era whose meetings -- even evangelical means something different. conservative probably means something different than it did years ago. it means i really like donald trump a lot, and i'm a trump era. and the other thing that just stuck out to me from steve's

point is that a very low percentage of people are talking about electability. they go back to the sort of differences between the kind of makeup of the two coalitions in our country. the level of, like, in security neuroses of the democratic coalition, we're out of touch with the country. we're out of touch with the country. we need someone electable. there's that old apocryphal -- nixon, how could he win? nobody i know voted for him. she didn't actually say that. but there's always the sense among the center left that liberals are out of touch with the country. you see this reflected in the press, the reporting, you saw it after 2016, particularly after trump won. there's nothing like that in the center right. zero. despite losing in 2020. >> they never have that feeling -- >> does not the sense of, like, we're out of touch with the country. why do we not get biden's appeal. nobody asked that question. when you have instead is this sense in the conservative media, biden's joke, everyone in the country hit some, all anyone in the country cares about is the border, and everyone agrees with us.

and there is no, like, there's nothing to worry about from the other coalition, because donald trump won the first time. the only thing to worry about is the deep state. >> and the thing is, we were laughing about the fact that they're talking about electability when he's literally lost everything he's touched for the last four years. but i feel like the important sort of data point, and you know, steve talks about it a lot, he's gonna talk about it a little more tonight, is that these are white christians. this is a state that is overrepresented by white christians that are gonna participate in the caucuses, especially tonight. i, earlier today, reached out to robert. robby jones from the public religion research institute, knowing we were gonna talk about iowa. and this is a hyper evangelical, white state. he said the following to me. iowa is about 61% white christian. the country as a whole is approximately 41% white christian. and in iowa, we're talking about evangelical questions. he said the following.

-- he keeps delivering losses, losses, losses. and he said the following. they see themselves as the rightful inheritors of this country, and trump has promised to give it back to them. all the things that we think about, about electability, but people -- none of that matters when you believe that god has given you this country, that it is yours, and that everyone who is not a white, conservative christian is a fraudulent american. is a less real american. then you don't care about electability. you care about what god has given you. >> this election a late is because voting begins with the iowa caucus doors closed in nine seconds, eight seconds, and so on. again, at eight pm, eastern time, seven pm local time, those stores will close. they are closed, officially, as of now. and, right now, immediately upon towards closing, based on the entrance poll results, nbc

news can project that the results in iowa are too early to call, but that former president donald trump leads in iowa. again, that is the official nbc news projection as of the caucuses closing their doors and beginning their work. again, this is based on entrance poll data, which we've been sharing with you since we started to receive it. what's happening inside these caucus sites, we can't have cameras inside these caucus sites, they're all doing the same thing now. they'll be a pledge of allegiance, their will in some cases be a prayer, that will then be the election of a caucus secretary, the election of a caucus chair, then the people who are brought together in these caucus sites will listen to speeches. they'll be one representative from each campaign. and then, upon listening to the speeches, they will write down their choice. it is a secret ballot. you don't have to put your name on the ballot. nobody needs to know who you are voting for. that might be an important dynamic. the slip of paper on which you

write your vote will then be tabulated at your site. the site will then convey that tabulated result to des moines, iowa republican party headquarters. they will release the unofficial results at the end of the night. results will become official once they have paper copies of all those tabulations from all of the more than 1600 caucus sites around the state. and then, we will get the official result. but again, the projection as of right now, from nbc news, is that while the results are too early to call in iowa, obviously, the projection is that donald trump leads. joining us now from clinton county, iowa, is nbc news correspondent -- clint county is one of those iowa counties that barack obama won as a candidate, but it's one heavily to donald trump in 2016. what are you seeing there? >> well, rachel, this is actually a caucus site for three different precincts. if you take a look, the way the

auditorium is set up works out perfectly for the way they need to do it here. there's three different sections. you see it's getting pretty full pretty fast. they need three separate precincts. this do it, the more -- do it to. and you'll see behind me, as people are still filing in, it's negative 22 degrees outside, and they're waiting in line here to sign in. i actually was just talking with j. and caffey here, and they're actually going to be waiting to listen to the caucus captains before they make their decision. this isn't the first time that they showed up to a republican caucus. tell me, what's on the top of your mind right now? why was it so important for you to come and share your voice tonight? >> well, we are conservative. we have family values. we believe in family values. so, for that reason, you know, we generally support the republican party. and we're concerned about getting the proper candidates in their that meet our values

and also -- make sure a candidate can ultimately win the election. the presidential election. so that's our -- >> and kathy, you said you're looking forward to listening to the different speeches, making your choice based on what you hear. are there any candidates you're more excited about? which are the ones really thinking about? >> i think i probably am leaning more towards nikki haley at this point. but i'm willing to listen and hear what people have to say before making a final decision. again, like the conservative values, and you know, things that are important to our family. we really want to make sure that whoever we vote for, like my husband said, has a real chance of being the candidate and has a chance of supporting the things that we care about once they get into office, and listening to the people. >> you're considering nikki haley. former president trump -- last time there was a republican caucus. have you considered him at all? >> i've gotta be honest. i'm not in favor of former

president trump. one, i don't think he can win the presidential election again. i just don't think he'll get enough overall support within the country. and, you know, there's just been some things that have happened that i can't favor him. i can't support him. >> i would really like to see our country come together more, and it seems like some of the things that he has said are a little more divisive, and, so i would love to see a candidate that can really bring our country together. >> well, thank you guys both for sharing your thoughts. i let you go sign in now since we're at the front of the line. you guys, go ahead. but yeah, this is a county that if we are going to see president trump do well, it's going to happen here, and the campaigns for nikki haley, ron desantis, i really counting on people like the folks we just talked to you to consider -- once something different than what they've seen before. so that something that we're watching here in rural

southeastern iowa, guys. >> dewitt, iowa, which isn't -- it was great to hear from them on their own terms. joining us from -- jacobs or off. the skate he's at right now is appellate county, this 22 different precincts, 22 different caucuses going on. jacob, who are you with, and what have you seen? >> rachel, this is truly. seize the chair of the county republican party. and you're running the caucus tonight, did i get that right? >> that's right. >> so treaty, you told me that in 2016, there were -- maybe as many as 19. what are we looking at tonight and how do you read this? you haven't gone up to welcome everybody, but you're about to do it. >> the auditorium will hold about 1200. we're probably looking at around 1000. >> so what does that tell you about, first of all, you've got the weather, but about the enthusiasm? i'm just looking out over this crowd. i'm seeing a lot of trump shirts, hats, et cetera. is that what you're seeing to?

>> i am seeing, yeah, a lot of trump. and again, he had a good ground game this time. 2016, he didn't have a good ground game. he has a good ground game. >> rachel maddow's was asking me earlier about the registration process, and i didn't see it happening outside. i assumed it was happening at the tables downstairs in the cafeteria. that's why everyone has those red wristbands. so, rachel, everyone's got these red wristbands. that means, what trudy? you can go inside the precinct to participate? >> you get about. >> okay. >> these are people that are registered republican. either they have been registered and they just signed in on the sheets, or they registered tonight and became republicans. >> do you have any idea about how many people, perhaps independents, even democrats, have decided to switch over to that when they came? >> they have been told me that. it looked like probably were running about 100 people. >> about 100 people who decided to switch? >> decided to switch, yes. >> what does that mean to you? >> well, that just means that when you're an independent, you think no one calls you.

what happens is everybody calls you. but that's, to be in the republican caucus, or in our primary, you have to be a registered republican. so they want to participate as what it means. >> i want to take too much of your time, because i know you have to go out there. i'm gonna let you go up there and do that. we're gonna check in with you over the course of the night, trudy. we'll go out, welcome everyone, and will catch up with you later. >> i'll do that. >> -- she's gonna welcome the crowd, the campaigns, as i said, are gonna give their speeches, and everyone's gonna break into those precincts level groups. it's a healthy turnout here, despite all this weather, as we're talking about earlier. >> jacob, can i ask you about one thing you spoke to us about earlier? you mentioned you met a voter and talk to him and two different times, and it was his first iowa caucus, and he was from georgia, and we all thought, he can't be from georgia and be taking part in the iowa caucus. do you mean that he's just moved to iowa and is now and iowa president, and this is his first opportunity to caucus?

>> no, no, i didn't. he's right here. he's right behind me. he moved from georgia to be here with his family, and so his son, i mentioned him earlier, briefly, his grandson, he's a snowplow driver, he's local, legit situation. >> gotcha. i know they're starting, i don't want you to be rude. we'll check back in with you, jacob. appreciate it. this is great. that's -- trudy, who's the county chair, we just met, is now welcoming everybody. they're gonna elect a caucus chair, a caucus secretary, they're gonna have speeches from the candidates, and we're gonna vote. that's how it's gonna go. we'll head over to steve kornacki at the big board. he's got more from the entrance polls for us. steve, we have this projection from nbc news. the first second that we could, that based on the entrance polls, it is too early to call, but trump leads. obviously, that's the biggest bottom line. most important thing we can get from those entrance polls.

what else are we seeing, or what is it that we're seeing within those that led to that call? >> yeah. we can show you. we've been talking in the run up to this about some of the key groups and iowa. it will be decisive, and we're getting some readouts from the exit poll about how they're telling our pollsters on the way they intend to vote here. first of all, we talked about this a lot. the gap between those with college degrees, those without college degrees. it's a big part of the gap between democrats and republicans these days in general elections. but it exists within the republican party. and take a look at the gap that's developing tonight and iowa. these are republican caucus goers with college degrees. look at how they're breaking donald trump barely in this exit poll, leading nikki haley, just a two-point gap between them. desantis back on 23%, vivek ramaswamy at nine. , vive -- >> this is a little clunky, but let me get you to the other side of this. no college degree. again, we showed you the split. this is about a 50/50 split. check this out.

donald trump, 65%. two thirds of the no college vote so far. and again, we're still getting incoming entrance poll data. so there can be some flux in these numbers. but the gap is obvious. the gap is clear. the gap is stark among voters without college degrees, trump gobbling up 65% in our entrance poll, desantis 17, we showed you halle, two points behind trump among college grads, 57 currently behind him among those without college degrees. so again, we were seeing that in polls running up to these caucuses. nikki haley was getting appealed to higher income, college exit -- suburban-ites, city dwellers. is she gonna expand outside of that base? this is a troubling number for her. but we haven't seen any reports from counties yet. one other that i can show you, we talked about, evangelical christians. and by the way, white evangelical christians made-up 62% of the republican caucus electorate in 2016. overall, with non white evangelical christians, it was 54% of the electorate.

that's why i'm saying 64. but here, white, born-again evangelical christians. tonight, our exit poll is showing just over half identify that way. is that how they're breaking in our entrance poll. -- haley 12, and again, the critical point of comparison here is that in 2016, when donald trump lost the state, he got 22% of the evangelical boat. -- 34% of it. so, again that eight year story of donald trump forging and deepening a political bond with evangelicals that would be crucial in iowa and elsewhere. you're seeing it, certainly, and the entrance poll. so you mentioned the characterization of trump leading a race that is too early to call. that is because not a single return from any of these caucus sites has yet to come in. so we want to make sure when these returns start coming in, we want to see, are they lining up with those numbers i just showed you? and just looking at the clock here, 8:12 pm, if 2016 as a gauge here, we've got our first readout in 2016, what would be

24 minutes from now. 8:36 pm. so when those numbers start coming in, if they are looking like an exit poll, which looks like the final poll we've been showing you from the des moines register, then i think you could see where this might be headed. >> steve, i think we just found out, we just heard that nikki haley is speaking right now at a des moines caucus site. is there any way we can take the audio of this? >> -- unemployment down to 4%. the toughest illegal -- we passed pension reform. we did voter i.d.. we made sure that we were taking care of paying down -- filling up our coffers. but more than that, we were named the most patriotic state in the country when we were done. we were an economic powerhouse. we started -- more bmw than any place in the world. we brought in mercedes-benz. --

five international tire companies. you are known as the beast of the southeast. but the main thing is, when south carolina was in crisis, and could've fallen apart, whether it was the white supremacists that came in and killed nine amazing souls in a church, whether it was a school shooting, or an african american man that was shot seven times in the back by a cop, we didn't have protests. we had a prayer. we didn't have riots, we had vigils. and we healed. then, i went to the united nations, and i made a point to be sure that we told countries what america was for. what america was against. i didn't care if they didn't like me. but i wanted them to respect america. and i got to work. and we showed the world what strong america could look like. but the biggest thing we did was we took the kick me sign off of our backs, and america was respected again.

now, i'm running for president, and you don't have to turn on -- are you gonna give me another one? >> all right, nikki haley fighting with some technical difficulties, but there she is, live, addressing a caucus site in des moines. it's just a reminder, actually, that these are not events that are organized by the state. these are not -- i mean, the count, but these are events that are organized, run by volunteers, and by the state parties. i mean, in a real election, there's restrictions on electioneering -- [laughter] you've got the candidate inside what is effectively the voting place. the caucus site. and you'll see that all over. every campaign can have a representative, nobody says the representative can't be the campaign or him or herself. >> that's an interesting point. the entry polls, well steve was explaining -- there is this one thing that happens after the entry poll,

right? and there at the speeches. and a close race, the cycle that trump lost in 2016, he lost by 6000 votes. can you move 1000 or 2000 over the whole speech with -- sometimes, if it's a larger margin, it matters less. there's an old saying, why is this night different than all other nights? >> very, very old. >> something like that. but that's what's different about a caucus. and there are many valid criticisms of how iowa works, and -- but a caucus, which you can have in any state, nevada and other places have done them, allows for this last grassroots thing. and i wonder, if you are against trump and against this lead, what are those closing arguments are making right now? >> in terms of the closing argument, it's really striking. nikki haley, i think, understands the portion that she's going for. that speech was not a speech to get the matta people. that was -- we had vigils, we got pension reform done. i think, to go back to what

steve just showed us in those to college degree without college degree, what a massive strategic failure from ron desantis out of the gate, who completely misunderstood where his natural coalition was. the first low hanging fruit for him to get were college educated republicans. or romney voters who are not that into trump. instead, what he did was, i'm going to veer as hired into sort of maga-ism as possible so as to start getting some of trump's vote. i think in retrospect -- >> without criticizing trump. >> without criticizing trump. in retrospect, you've got to start with something, and there was something for him to build on that he completely fumbled the ball on, which is why nikki haley is where she's at. >> joining us now from the studio as our colleague, i likes wagner. we promised it's nothing personal. we have not banished alex, she's not been bad. it's just that alex had a covid exposure, and so out of an abundance of caution, you're in an air locked studio all on your own. which we know you're a professor, so --

[laughter] congratulations. >> rachel, it's like the tv equivalent of one of those plastic dog cohen's. it sure keeps me safe, but it looks kind of awkward. >> well, from your no hot spot, no scratch, no further damage to yourself spot, what are you watching for tonight, alex? and what do you think about the information that we've got so far from these polls? >> steve was pointing at the evangelical about, which i've been fascinated by -- esteemed reporters have been talking about the way in which the trump coalition, the maga coalition, as just absolutely the devoured the evangelical coalition. iowa is kind of a case study in that. michelle goldberg talks about that, david french has talked about this phenomenon, and if you look at this and she pulls, you know, as steve points out, 55% of white born again or evangelicals are going from trump. that is an exponential increase from 2016. do you consider yourself part of the maga movement, 78% going

for trump? that's not hugely surprising. but the overlap there, i think, is what is so remarkable about this moment in american politics, right? bob vander plaats, who is a kingmaker in iowa, a mouthpiece for the evangelical vote in iowa, endorses ron desantis. it clearly does not matter evangelical america is behind donald trump. and that gets to the root of what trumpism is now. we were told in 2016 that evangelicals made their beds with trump because they wanted to have a supreme court that was modeled and evangelical conservative model. they got that. but it seems like their affiliation with trump and maga-ism runs deeper than that. and you know, david french has articulated this point beautifully. the trumpism has become -- especially for evangelicals. it's not about the virtue anymore. it's a bit of ice that trump

expresses. and i think you see that playing out in iowa where the evangelical vote is key. it's essential to what is going to unfold tonight. and it is very much a group of people that find that trump is, in some ways, a second coming. it's why trump is taking out ads like the one that came out, i think, a week ago, called god made trump. there is a distinctly religious undertone to his campaigning nationally. and i think you see that playing out in iowa, right? the numbers do not lie, rachel, and i find it really spectacularly an interesting thing, if not a downright curious thing. >> yeah. and we'll have to see -- entrance polls are polls. they are not election results. we'll have to see if they match what we're expecting in terms of the overall results, if they're as predictive as we're all expecting them to be. you never know. right now, you've been watching live caucuses underway in places like sioux city, storm

lake, davenport, and we just saw nikki haley herself speaking on behalf of her own campaign. we're gonna take a quick break. when we come back, we'll have some of those live speeches as caucus goers right now are being persuaded one way or the other toward cast ending their ballots. stay with us. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ard too. so, i use my freedom unlimited card. earning on my favorite soup. aaaaaah. got it. earning on that éclair. don't touch it, don't touch it yet. let me get the big one. nope. -this one? -nope. -this one? -yes. no. what? the big one. they're all the same size. wait! lemme get 'em all. i'm gonna get 'em all! earn big with chase freedom unlimited. how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours. somedays, i cover up because of my moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. now i feel free to bare my skin, thanks to skyrizi. ♪(uplifting music)♪

♪nothing is everything♪ i'm celebrating my clearer skin... my way. with skyrizi, 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months. in another study, most people had 90% clearer skin, even at 5 years. and skyrizi is just 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine, or plan to. thanks to clearer skin with skyrizi - this is my moment. there's nothing on my skin and that means everything! ♪nothing is everything♪ now's the time. ask your doctor about skyrizi, the #1 dermatologist-prescribed biologic in psoriasis. learn how abbvie could help you save. you always got your mind on the green. not you. you! your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪)

that's how you business differently. intuit quickbooks. use kayak to compare hundreds of travel sites at once? that's how you business differently. i like to do things myself. no machine is better than me. kayak. search one and done. ♪ on your period, sudden gushes happen. say goodbye gush fears! thanks to always ultra thins... with rapiddry technology... that absorbs two times faster.

hellooo clean and comfortable. always. fear no gush. we need republicans to --

not apologize who we are. you know it deep down. there's no doubt about. -- [inaudible] chuck schumer. to support a republican candidate that will stay that tonight -- voting for donald trump. thank you. [applause] >> let's live coverage from where we've just had the trump surrogate. each campaign has a representative who gives these speeches, and people cast their ballots thereafter. that was the trump surrogate speaking in waukee, iowa. while this is happening, -- we've got some first results, steve. is that right? >> we do. we are basically individual precincts -- is therefore very significant counties that i think touched on themes as these votes come

in tonight we're gonna be getting to. let me just start going through them. we have a 51 right now. we'll start in lion county. far northwest iowa, deeply, deeply religious. this, of all the 99 counties in iowa, this was donald trump's second worst county in 2016. the first time he ran. look, you can even see him on our list in the top three right here. this county speaks to the heart of what we were talking about in 2016. evangelical christians, especially churchgoing evangelicals christians in iowa, was skeptical of trump, mosque dialed toward trump. -- this is not all the county, this is a fraction of the county. but donald trump is at 72% here. a county he got absolutely blown out in in 2016, deeply evangelical, deeply religious. again, we'll see more vote coming in. but this is hinting at what that exit poll showed. the more than doubling of support with trump among evangelicals, and it's the

opposite of what we saw when this county reported its result in 2016. take a look at hancock county. we've got about 8%. it's just a scattering, but the significance of this county. this was ted cruz's best county in iowa in 2016, and donald trump, again, in the early vote, running near 70%. this is also, hancock county is one of 42 counties. lion's as well. there are 42 counties on this map. i don't know if you see it there, but there are 42 counties. we say winning the evangelical vote wins a caucus -- who could be await, santorum 12, cruz 16. the question was, how many of those could trump win tonight? could you went big? and from desantis's standpoint, could desantis when any of them? that's where he's gonna need votes if he needs to make a statement. look again. this was cruz's best. here, you see the early return. this was trump's second worst in line. we showed you the early return there. we also have -- significance of this county, we talk about the difference between college and non-college -educated voters. this of all 99 counties has the

lowest share of college educated adults. the adult population, the lowest chair of degree attainment, and again, speaks to a strength and trump we just saw on that exit poll. certainly in the early returns from caulk -- take a look over here, the mississippi river. this is one of those counties. i had more counties than any other country in the united states -- obama 2012, trump 2016, trump 2020. this is one of them. this was an obama county twice. trump moved this county dramatically in the general election. you saw him do that all throughout the mississippi river region of the state, and, again you see in the caucus, early, big, huge support for trump there. the final place we have a vote is, this is the mother lode of it. certainly not right now, but just a preview here, because this is where you saw, a minute ago, nikki haley speaking. she was in des moines, which means she is in polk county. the biggest county in the

state. it's gonna -- from this one county. this county is different than a lot of what we've been talking about here. this has the fourth highest rate of college degree attainment of any county in iowa. this gets to that hayley bass or talking about. college educated, wealthy, urban, suburban, look how polk voted in 2016. it was a rubio county, cruises up there, trump finished here in 2016. very early going, 13 votes, you see on the screen in front of you. this is like one precinct coming in. but this is the county. as votes come in, keep an eye on it. because if nikki haley it's gonna be doing anything tonight, she's gonna be doing it in places like polk, she's gonna be doing it right next door, dallas county, big suburban county, right outside des moines. rubio, marco rubio with a similar coalition won this in 2016. she'd have to do it in story county, this is where ames is, iowa state university, home of the cyclones, johnson county, university of iowa, iowa city, these are all marco rubio

counties in 2016. lynn county, this is where cedar rapids as. these are the kind of places where haley has got to be performing well tonight if she's gonna get second, if she's gonna do anything impressive. but these early returns, there's a very small number, but i point them all out because these counties, in some ways, symbolically or in terms of just raw number of votes, are very significant as the returns come in tonight in terms of what that's gonna mean for trump and what it's gonna mean for either of those other two trying to make some kind of a statement. >> steve, we'll keep coming back to you as we get more results in. -- this is the time of the evening when at caucus sites all over iowa, there are more than 1600 caucus sites all over the state. -- representatives from campaigns make those cases. let's pop back into autumn while, iowa, where some surrogates are making their case right now. let's listen in. >> promises not kept. what donald j trump, we saw, for four years, what he did for

our country. and i don't have to list the whole agenda, because you lived it. and you know it. so i have to ask you tonight to look in your heart and to remember what those four years were like, and to know that we can get that back, and we can save america. [applause] millions of americans are counting on the people of iowa tonight. it's time to finish what we started, and make america great again. [applause] >> trump, trump, trump. [crowd chanting] >> trump! trump! trump! trump! >> either candidate representatives standing by ready to make their case as well. let's just wait to hear this

one. we don't know which campaign this representative is speaking on behalf of. [inaudible] >> i'm here on behalf of -- the person that the media says no one in iowa is going to vote for. and i'm here to ask you to prove them wrong. i realize i've got a bit of an uphill battle, but that's my reason for being here. >> this is a representative for someone named ryan binkley, who did pull, actually, did manage to get on the board in the final des moines register poll this weekend. that poll was trump at 48%, haley 20, down the line, asa hunch and son at one, and ryan brinkley also at one. but at this moment, i'm gonna interrupt myself, because nbc news can now project that at this hour, at 8:33 pm, 7:33 central time, 7:33 central time,

that former president donald j trump will be the projected winner in the iowa caucuses f the 2024 presidential election. again, about 53 minutes after the doors closed in the iowa caucuses, with very few actual results in, but based on the results that we do have and the entrance polling that we do have, nbc news now projects that donald trump will be, at the end of the night, the winner of the iowa caucuses. >> well, ryan brinkley, i'm glad that we know his name, and that he got a chance to make a little bit of fame, having been mentioned by the great rachel maddow. but the previous woman, who the trump surrogate -- i wish she had not just loved it. i wish she had listed it. i wanted to hear what she had to say. -- i'm curious when people say he did so much for us, what policies they mean. because the one dot policy that donald trump obviously past was that massive enormous tax cut. he didn't build the wall, he

didn't do -- i'm always curious as to what they actually mean by that. but i do think the evangelical thing that alex was talking about, i think that is the story for the night. the fact that in 2016, these were ted cruz voters, you know, he kind of had the evangelical lane. in this particular race, it was ron desantis who originally went hard for evangelicals. remember the god made a fighter and? he did the god ad first before trump did. he really was attempting to appeal directly to the souls of evangelicals. his whole strategy is iowa. to be clear, michael and i were talking about this. his strategy is built around the idea that he would pull an obama in iowa, that he would pivot there, and even if he didn't win in new hampshire, which is a state that's more built for nikki haley, he would then slingshot to south carolina, where there is a similar percentage of evangelical voters. so he is the one who really has to win. to be honest with you, nikki haley doesn't need to win iowa. it would be a nice thing for her, to not win, or to come in

reasonably decent sort of respectable second. it's really ron desantis for whom this is do or die. and he gets mopped tonight, he has to sling come to florida having done nothing. he put all of his eggs in this basket. but you heard, and we were talking about this off line a little bit, you heard -- i don't remember who it was that was saying that donald trump has a better ground game this time than he did in 2016, when he lost -- >> trudy was saying -- >> ted cruz. for donald trump, -- doesn't matter for their political future is really nikki haley, it's ron desantis. >> if i could get two points for that. one on the ground game, i think not enough attention has been paid to the fact that donald trump came into iowa with a very different mindset than the one he had in 2016. from what i understand, he had not just a good ground game, but a very good ground game. so what steve started putting up those numbers, you saw that

ground game. you saw the turnout effort that his people were able to get in place. when you look at the weight of the percentage of participants in this caucus. so i take note of the fact that nikki haley is running fared in terms of those entrance polls. in most of those categories. as a chairman, as a party guy, i'm sitting there, i'm doing the math, going, this tells me two things. both trump and desantis focused on the ground game that nikki could not get in place. that's gonna hurt her tonight if these numbers hold up, based on the entrance. she very well could slide into third place because of that turnout model. the other side of that comes south carolina to the last point that you made, joy, about evangelicals. unlike iowa, there's a greater percentage of evangelical voters in south carolina, where almost 75% of every republican

who will vote is the evangelical voter. so that sets up an interesting challenge and dynamic for harry swinging out of iowa, we are the numbers hold, runs into a third place wall. right? with these votes. >> to joy's point though, big picture, what we've got here, we've got donald trump as the projected winner, the question is what's gonna happen between nikki haley and ron desantis. ron desantis moved his national headquarters to iowa, is super pac, which is effective running this campaign -- everything in the wrong desantis campaign has been geared but toward him winning in iowa. -- desantis's ground game in iowa is the best of all the candidates. we've heard that over and over again. nikki haley didn't really start doing anything on the ground in iowa until late november. she was never expected to be competitive in iowa at all because it is such a heavily evangelical electorate.

the place where she's really expected to compete is a new hampshire. but even if haley comes in third tonight to desantis, i'd still rather it be nikki haley coming out of iowa, because ron desantis is in single digits and every other state in the country where he hasn't had his era. and nikki haley is within single digits of donald trump in new hampshire. and then she goes home to south carolina, where she is way down, but at least people know where she's got a ground game. so, you'd rather be heard than him. because if he does beat here in iowa -- >> nikki haley seems to be facing two big roadblocks tonight. and by the way, from this point forward, i'm happy to see the balance of my time, as they say in the senate, to iowa voters, because everything we've heard from the individuals that we've listened to that, it's been really fascinating. you heard that young republican saying that donald trump did not build the wall, he knows that. it's nice to hear that there are republicans who know that. he's a desantis guy. but we heard the trump supporter, the one trump supporter we heard, say donald

trump was chosen by god to be the person that he votes for it tonight in iowa. now, if you want to talk about an insurmountable roadblock for other candidates, that could not be more clearly defined. and what was interesting to hear was the way he put it, which was that line about, you know, god sometimes makes strange choices. when i was a kid, the way they taught that in our catholic theology, the phrase -- god moves in mysterious ways. and that is there, all the time, for that kind of deeply religious person to use any way they want. whether donald trump made them do this, or whether they wanted to find their way to before donald trump, they have arrived at the spot where they believe god has decided he should not just win the iowa caucus, he should be president again, that

he is god's chosen candidate. nikki haley is not gonna be able to beat that anywhere. >> one more i think just layer to add -- evangelical vote is that the times did a piece about this a week and a half ago -- that category itself is pretty capacious. particularly within republican party party -- politics, you have people who are regular church attendees, right, they're connected to a church, it might go to bible study, they are in meshed and the life world of worship. and then there are people who call themselves evangelicals who are basically unchecked. they don't go to sunday services, they're not connected to a church. that portion has been one of the biggest growths for trump. there's a whole great times p's talking -- there are people who identify as evangelical both spiritually and politically as a hybrid identity. and that's been a part of the trump growth as well. >> let's go to this live event we just saw. we don't have audio from davenport, but this is a haley

representative. >> let's make america strong impact again. i want to be a proud republican supporter. i don't want to be a silent majority, like they said back in 2016. i want to see new, young, conservatives standing up and starting to lead our country. so, thank you guys for listening to me tonight. i appreciate it. [applause] >> anybody else for nikki haley? so, the next on my list i have for trump. >> this is live right now in council bluffs, iowa. we're going around looking at these different precincts and caucuses as people are hearing the speeches from various campaigns. steve kornacki is watching

results as they're coming in. steve, as we're starting to get more information from these individual counties, what are you able to see about what's taking shape with this apparent trump victory in iowa? >> again, it's basically just individual or a couple precincts for county. in council bluffs, though, i can show you their -- pottawatomie county. this was one of trump's best counties in the state in 2016. council bluffs, right across from omaha -- over 70%. we're seeing him in these early returns coming in and all these counties. well over what he was in that final poll. we'll see as more precincts come in if it holds. this one again, i said earlier, we've got lyon county, the results we have been lyon counties so far, this is not just deeply religious. this is a deeply churchgoing county. trump got 16% here in 2016. 72% with the first batch. you see there is one can -- not collide in that trump's

shade of red. it's a darker shade of red. that's the nikki haley color. we have a little bit in from johnson county. what's johnson county? it's the home of iowa city. it's the home of the university of iowa. go hawkeyes. it's also the home of the highest concentration of college degrees of any one of iowa's 99 counties. and remember we were talking earlier how marco rubio came pretty close in 2016, and he did it with a coalition that looks like haley's has looked on our exit poll and in the polling leading up to this. so this is a county that marco rubio won. this is a county that nikki haley, with that support she has among those with college degrees, with higher incomes, those who don't like donald trump in the general election, johnson county is gonna be the most democratic county in iowa. all the ingredients are there for nikki haley. so she has, again, it's just a scattering that's coming in again. but this is exactly the kind of place where she needs to be doing this, to have it hold tonight. and, again very curious. it's not just the scale of the turnaround in a place like lion county. the scale of a turnaround in a place like hancock county.

it was ted cruz's best county and iowa in 2016. -- it also becomes a story for ron desantis here. clearly, it's a race for second place here between desantis and haley. the exact significance of that, how far behind first place they'll end up, is to be determined. but these are counties where even if desantis is not winning tonight, he's got to be doing better than this. he certainly wanted to be doing a lot better than this. and a county like this right here, 12%, this is a place he wanted to be over 30%, certainly, at a minimum, and probably more. you want to be winning some of these. we've seen now some little of these counties, we said the 42 -- huckabee, santorum, cruz counties. you when the evangelical vote, you win iowa, and desantis pulled out all stops trying to get that evangelical vote. we've seen reports now from a bunch of those. none of them is desantis, even in the ball game of any of the precincts that have come in. so again, it's still a scattering here, but again, you see the lead donald trump has statewide now, you do see nikki

haley is starting us off in johnson county. that's what she's gotta do. places like polk, places like johnson. dallas county, as it starts to come in later. again, these are two church choir trump counties here -- where sioux city is, pottawatomie, or council bluffs says. but it leaves you in this situation, just a benchmark for donald trump. i think we mentioned at the very top of the broadcast, the record, the all-time record in iowa republican caucus for vote share is 41%. i don't know if you can see that. 41%. okay, that was a very low threshold for trump to clear. i think the question now is if he's gonna clear 50% statewide when all is said and done. and again, the biggest margin -- 12 points, as bob dole be -- 30 7:25 in 1928. and again, he's gonna be exceeding that. the question is just how much is gonna be exceeding it by? and the more he exceeds that record by, more uf to wonder in this battle for second place. does it even matter? >> can i just put an asterisk on the framing of this?

donald trump, whatever gets tonight, it's gonna be the lowest margin in the history of iowa caucuses by someone who is already been president. because every other person who's already been president wins the iowa caucus by default, because they don't even bother to have it. right? so they're not having won because the democrats don't need one tonight in iowa. but if you want to go broader and say, okay, what is the actual biggest margin? it was tom hart come in 1992. 76%. the next one down was paul -- bill clinton at 3%. tom harkin was of course the senator from iowa, so everyone gave up on the stand. but trump is not gonna snap any kind of meaningful statistical record. this is, in fact, a written incumbent republican president who finds himself in an iowa caucus. so, why can't he hit harken

like numbers? >> lawrence is making such an important point. because there's so much perception games that comes out of this. and if you had full control over the party, there wouldn't be one. right? if a popular, non-indicted former -- >> joe biden's doing a lot better in the iowa caucuses. that's my point. [laughter] >> former president obama had lost and was running, i don't think we'd be talking about it all. i think he would come in with a 90, 95. what examples you just gave. so we're seeing two things tonight. the one hand, we can report, and we see projects trump winning iowa. so we start this cycle very differently then we started 16. and 16, tonight, trump was oh and one. >> after having been favored in the polls. >> exactly. -- members of congress wouldn't publicly go near him.

this time, he has scared or willed or beating them into it, as dry, chris, and others have talked about, and the looming violence that some republicans even admit. the other big difference, of course, last time he was an indicted, a lot of civil cases, unindicted -- now is quadruple indicted and hanging over all of this is whether he's convicted before election day. so i think there's a lot of differences. he starts, on the one hand, stronger than 16, but as lawrence just said, so much weaker. and remember, in 16, 55% to republican voters, when all was said and done, picked someone other than trump. and tonight in iowa and other places, there are maybe 30, 40% plus, at least open minded to, it even if he's just won iowa. >> i have a little bit of an update from the decision dusk. as you know -- as of right now, based on the entrance polls, based on the results that we do have, nbc news projects that donald trump will be the winner of the iowa

caucuses. but we have an additional projection from the decision desk which is interesting. based on the entrance polls, based on what has been observed tonight at caucus sites in iowa, the decision but dusk is projecting lower than expected turnout tonight in iowa. we don't know how much is due to the weather, political factors, or anything else. record turnout in the iowa republican caucuses was in 2016. that was 186,000. the decision desk tonight is expecting turn it to be about 130,000. so, we shall see. again, that is a projected turnout, but that is significantly, significantly lower than the last time voters were considering trump in iowa in 2016. >> and by the way, i think that the problem for nikki haley, as you said, is that you need passion to caucus. it requires passion. but whatever happens with her tonight, i think we must remark upon the absolute tragedy of ron desantis.

as a human being, and as a politician. and i say this is somebody who spent 14 years in the great state of florida. this man torched the state of florida's education system by turning it into a grand apologist for slavery. he passed a six-week abortion ban that he signed at midnight so that no one could see him do it to match kim reynolds, the governor of iowa, it essentially condemning rape victims and incest victims to give birth at ten years old if that's what it takes an order to get evangelicals to like him. all the things he did, he completely took the republican tallahassee entire senate and house delegations, put them in his service, they had to essentially work for him, and they passed everything he asked him for for one reason only. because he was going to win iowa. he put it all on iowa. his whole ground game is iowa. this whole strategy is iowa. and he destroyed his political career in his home state. but collected his home state

during two hurricanes. he humiliated himself when he finally ran home to pretend that he was going to help his state. and neglected it. the highest insurance rates, it's impossible to get insurance in the state. workers are leaving, as latino workers, hispanic workers are leaving because of draconian immigration law that has republicans passed for him. it's hurting the agriculture industry, the construction industry. he's ruined the state and made it and anathema for business. he sue disney, put himself at war with mickey mouse and lost and got cumulated by them. what is he not done that was stupid politically? offer one purpose. he did not want to add, god created a fighter, to get evangelicals to like him, and he's going to finish maybe in the 15's an iowa. he's finished as a politician in florida as a result. >> when rachael said, of course he has moved his whole operation to iowa. it's, like all right, the dude is still governor. [laughter] >> that's the case.

he's moved. and he's making jokes about. it it's like a setup for a sitcom. florida family moved to iowa in the middle of the cold snap, and it's like, you are still -- it's one thing, i think, to be a senator and do that. where you fly back to d.c. whenever. but florida is a big state. managing the state is some work. and it's pretty wild that he's also just taking leave of this incredibly important job by and large four months. >> while the florida republican party has just had to forcibly oust its state republican party chairman for the worst possible reasons. google it. i have to tell you, we did just get that additional updated projection from the decision to ask about the expected turnout. lower than expected turnout projected by the decision desk, expected to be around 130,000. that is fix the 6000 fewer people than turned it in 2016. steve, do you have any insight into that call, what it means for the turnout projection? >> yeah. it's a question. the race was very different,

obviously, this time around than it was in 2016. -- more candidates, more dynamic nature, three candidates separated by about -- is it that? how much of it is the weather tonight? but just to put it in perspective, yes. it was a huge number in terms of turnout in 2016. but 2016 stands by itself in iowa republican caucus history. i could show you, this is the turnout for every republican presidential -- the halting really began with reagan losing to george bush senior. so, yes get 186,000 in 2016. the last comparable atmosphere, we had a democrat incumbent -- caucus in 2012. this is romney, this was santorum, newt gingrich, perry. he had 121,000 turn it in 2008. it was the year that mike huckabee won it. you think back to 2000, and i think this one might be worth pointing out as well. look at the turnout in 2000. that was the lowest ever. the race in 2000, the dynamic of the republican race in 2000 more closely resembled this one

than any other republican race. meaning, the george w. bush in 2000, donald trump is the first republican candidate -- win national polling lead this big. an excess of 30 points. donald trump is the first republican since george w. bush -- des moines register poll showing anything like that kind of lead donald trump walked into this with. so it was expected, and it was assumed in 2000 that george w. bush was gonna win iowa. and the question was, what would the margin be between him and steve forbes? and it created an atmosphere where there was pretty low interest overall on the republican side. bush got the win, forbes got second place, he said he had momentum, he went absolutely nowhere. we moved back to new hampshire, it got interesting. but the dynamics in 2000 when you had the lowest hour of the most similar to 2016. in terms of drawing a correlation, you, know one thing to keep in mind here, in 2000, lowest ever, that was

george w. bush who went on to win the nomination and did go on to win in contested fashion the presidency. >> right, now it's just coming up on nine pm eastern, which is eight pm in iowa. most caucuses, if not all caucuses, i still underway in iowa. at this point, nbc news is projecting that donald trump will be the winner of the iowa caucuses tonight. but we are watching closely as nikki haley and ron desantis vie for second place. we've been talking a lot about what the implications might be for each of these candidates of a second place finish. we'll have more on that as these results continue to come in. right after this. i think i changed my mind about these glasses. yeah, it happens. that's why visionworks gives you 100 days to change your mind. it's simple. anything else i can help you with? like what? visionworks. see the difference. hello, brent. hi?

if you had to choose, would you watch paint dry or compare benefits plans? compare benefits every time. come on, you know how complicated benefits can be. well, i run payroll with gusto. they make it easier to find benefits like medical, dental, and vision for my whole team. man, i think i'm going to need new glasses. don't worry. i've got you covered. yes! choose benefits without the mess. that's working with gusto.

this election is a choice between results or just rhetoric. californians deserve a senator who is going to deliver for them every day and not just talk a good game. adam schiff. he held a dangerous president accountable. he also helped lower drug costs, bring good jobs back home, and build affordable housing. now he's running for the senate. our economy, our democracy, our planet. this is why we fight. welcome back to our special i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message. coverage of the iowa caucuses. the republican iowa caucus, tonight, here on msnbc. steve, we obviously have the overall projection from the --

decision desk that donald trump will be the overall winner. but in terms of the total amount of, we're pretty light. we've got 2% in total statewide. as you're watching, counties coming in, are you learning more about the contours of this? >> yeah. we're seeing the patterns of marriage that we were talking about before in terms of trump's strong pretty much everywhere right now. it's just a question of how strong. but where he leads strengths are and where desantis's strengths are -- and you do see there are two counties now that are haley's -- we have partial returns on here. so you've got johnson county, again, university of iowa, iowa city, this is a rubio county from 2016, and we have some precincts and, and look at that. haley and here, this is exactly the kind of county she needs to be winning. she needs to try to get a margin here. so let's see if that continues for her. the other one was the other big college county in iowa, story county, iowa state university. we're gonna say hello to the cyclones who are watching out there. and again, this is highly, and look at that. ramaswamy. this is only a small number of

votes, but again, haley doing extremely well there. you see also one county with the desantis color. and this is interesting, because we've showed you some returns from line county. lyon county, and then there's suit county. and suit county is, in terms of a republican caucuses, it punches way above its weight. it is heavily, heavily religious. turns out huge numbers. ninth biggest foot producing county in 2016 despite being a relatively small county population wise. and you see desantis in the early returns there is actually leading trump. remember, this was donald trump's worst county in 2016 and the entire state of iowa. donald trump got 11% here. you can't even see him on the green he did so poorly ensued county. donald trump with these early returns has tripled that, but there is but there's desantis actually ahead of him in the early returns. so, it's interesting. this is exactly what desantis wants to see there. he's not seeing it so far in lyon county, which is very, very similar. but sioux county is one of those

42 that is huckabee, santorum, and cruz. and desantis wants to see that color popping up in a lot more of those counties. and he wants to keep it in sioux. this is only 10%. but keep an eye on sioux. hugely evangelical, church going. this is as bad as it got for donald trump in 2016. haley doing well in the college degree, high education, high income level counties so far. and there you go, in evangelical iowa. there's one that right now desantis is getting votes out of. >> steve, can i ask you a question about the entrance polls. there's two questions that were asked in the entrance polls. and i just wanted to see if we could pull up. that first one there on the left, did biden legitimately win in 2020. >> yeah. so, yes, 30% here, no, 66%. since i can give you the actual breakdown -- >> this is state-wide in iowa. >> this is among all republican caucus goers we got into our entrance poll here.

among the yeses, the breakdown in vote is nikki haley, 53%. ron desantis, 26%. and donald trump getting 10%, not surprisingly. and among the nos on this question here, who said joe biden did not win it, it is 68% for trump. it is 16% for ron desantis. and just double checking my math here, it is 6% for nikki haley. just a stark divide here. in the smaller group here, little bit less than 1 in 3 who say biden legitimately won it. more than 50 points ahead of desantis. >> can we just pause for a second? >> i want to say something about that. >> two-thirds of iowa republican caucus goers believe that the president of the united states right now is a fake? >> illegitimate. >> is not actually the president and is running some sort of scam wherein donald trump really is the president and joe biden is

pretending to be? two-thirds of republican iowa caucus goers. >> i would say that legitimately there's some wiggle room around. to lawrence's point about trump being a quasi incumbent here, which he is. he was the president of the united states before. the thing that makes it weird is usually when you lose, you get turfed out. george h.w. bush didn't run again after he lost in '92. they do want to hear from donald trump. why? well, that answer goes a long way, right? the big lie is, i didn't lose. i'm not a loser. they stole it from me. >> i secretly -- >> so, when you look at that, why is this different than what we've had in the past. but the other thing i'm curious about, steve, if you don't mind, is that other question about the possibility of conviction, which we talked about the meteor that may land at any moment, which, you know, people who are there know that that's possible. take us through that one. >> to ask the question if donald

trump is convicted, do you consider him fit to be president? again, this is our entrance poll of republican caucus goers. yes, similar -- very similar spread here. yes is 63%. i can just show you the breakdown, those who say 71% say they're going to vote for him tonight. 13% for desantis. it is 6% for haley. among those who say, no, trump would not be fit to serve, the number is haley. haley seems to be gobbling up the lion's share of the anti-trump vote. desantis is getting 30%. trump is getting 9%. and trump is barely edging out ramaswamy, who's getting 8% with this group. but, yeah, this is about a one-third/two-third divide about the legitimacy of the 2020 election, about trump's legal problems. >> the big picture is the big picture here. this means of people turning out to caucus in iowa, a third of

them think that if donald trump is convicted he is not fit to be president. in this incredibly conservative electorate, where trump is going to run away with the iowa caucuses by a mile and then some, still a third of that electorate says if he's convicted -- they're going to nominate him nationwide? even a third of iowa caucus goers say no, he can't be president if he's convicted. i'm sorry, but he's going to be convicted. >> rachel, there's overwhelming evidence in several of these cases. i cannot say what's going to happen. >> i can. >> so, we all know the limits of polling. and i think the audience and the citizenry knows the limits because we've seen polls. if you poll chris and i and say are we going to follow our new year's resolution all year. yeah. i've been running this month. but we might not. in other words, our -- our answer to the pollster about certain things may not hold true. so, let's say that the 32% is

high because some of it involves motivated reasoning by people who oppose trump and other people who don't like the idea of admitting they would stomach this. even if it's triple -- let's say it's triple. >> it's 10%. >> it's 10 or 8 or even 5% -- and jen psaki is here. i can't wait to hear what you think. 5% minus the 7 million that trump came up short last time doesn't get you to another electoral college or national victory. independents and republicans outside of the caucus-going universe are at a higher percentage of this according to polls. i know you to be frequently right. >> you're not the only one. >> if you're right that there's a conviction, then there's overwhelming data, new data tonight among republican activists and a bunch of other indies, normmys, and otherwise, who say, no, i don't want a felon running the government. i don't say that -- anything other than observation, that would be bad news for trump in a general. >> right. look, i think we're going to see tomorrow and we saw last week

that trump is basically running a campaign in the courtroom. he was there more than he was in iowa over the last week. is that going to work for the republican electorate? seems pretty clearly from these entrance polls, yes. but to your point, the whole electorate is an entirely different population of people. and trump loves his own strategy. so, it's very possible he may keep doubling down on that, right? >> the worst thing we've learned about the republican primary electorate is not yet in these entrance polls questions tonight. cbs poll, their final poll before the iowa caucus, a national poll, shows that 81% of republican primary voters and caucus participants, 81% of those people, agree with donald trump that immigrants are poisoning the blood of this country. that means that 81% of the republican primary electorate

believe nikki haley has poisoned blood and is poisoning the blood of the united states. so, that, as a road block for nikki haley, is impossible. but it also shows you what you're up against in any kind of campaign against voters like that, the convertibility of voters like that to anything other than the trump view of the world is impossible. there's no campaign ad, there's no speech you can make, there's no, you know, republican who -- chris christie might be able to convince some of them. not them. not any of the 81%. not one of them can be converted. >> and the bottom line is as much as we want to respect -- it's been interesting listening to these voters. you must understand that the republican base is overwhelmingly those people. it's white evangelicals for whom supporting trump is a matter of faith. it is a matter of their religion. it is a religion.

and therefore nikki haley is one of the people poisoning the blood of the country. vivek ramaswamy's wife went into iowa to try to get people to vote for her husband. what she got was, you know, where were you from again? is your husband born in the united states? what religion are you? you're hindu? i don't know if that's acceptable to me. and saying that to her face. he discovered at the end he went sideways with trump somehow and trump started attacking him. he went birther on him. at any moment, those voters could do the same thing. the answer to your question, chris, is are they still going to nominate him despite his 91 criminal -- yes! yes, they're going to nominate him. >> another thing we should keep in mind, i always look at these numbers coming from a son of new york city, from the bronx, population of, like, 1.4 million or something. we're talking about 140,000 people here. the people are going to vote in a presidential election in iowa

even for trump are going to be far in excess of this number, right? this is the, sort of, most distilled essence in some ways, people coming out, negative 7 degrees to caucus on a caucus night. >> motivated activists. >> the most motivated people. there are lots of people that are going to vote for donald trump. in that poll, that cbs poll, it was the general electorate was 46% agreeing with the -- >> 47% disagree with trump. among american voters, 53 -- this is only 53% -- >> it's a very narrow thing. >> -- of american voters disagree with trump that immigrants poison the blood of the country. which is to say you have a electorate in the united states that is 53% sane. and that's all you got. >> that's not a good number. >> not to be too dark here but i think it's important to remember that trump is the one moving the goal post. and people follow him, right? so, consistent with that, back in december, "the des moines

register" tested a number of the comments he had made consistent with this, right? so, they asked them to deal with immigration, trump would authorize, quote, sweeping raids, giant camps, and mass deportation. does that make you more likely/less likely to support him. 50%, more likely. that's great. that's our guy. the radical left thugs that live like vermin in the u.s. need to be routed out. 43% more likely. meaning they might not think on its own that's an okay thing. but when he says it, they follow it. >> i think, again, the big picture take away from that -- and i don't mean to be, again, too dark, as you said, on this. but, it is not -- if we are worried about the rise of authoritarianism in this country, rise of potential rise of fascism in this country, worried about our democracy falling an authoritarian and potentially fascist form of government, the leader who is trying to do that is part of that equation. but people wanting that is a

much bigger part of that equation. and the american electorate is made up of two major parties. one of those parties has been flirting with extremism on the ultra right for a very long time. they've brought them in in a way that they haven't been central to republican electoral politics ever before. once you have radicalized one major party so that those are the preferences of the people who adhere to your party, the leader's interchangeable. trump is a miss sometimes, what we call it, maga movement is probably a better way to do it. but there isn't a authoritarian movement inside republican politics that isn't being bamboozled by trump. they are pushing trump to get more and more extreme because the more extreme things he says, the more they adhere. and that is coming from a very large proportion of the american right that appears to the republican party. that's why this is a republican party problem more than it is the problem of one man. >> the two points you were raising, you talk about

religion, religious zeal without religion, right? it's a religious level zeal, and it is for those people replacing or supplanting something. >> really what you want is strong man government. >> that goes to the second point, which is what you were saying earlier and several people were speaking on. there's no reassessment about winning anyone back over, even though you got viewer votes in '16. you lost big time in the '18 midterms. you got shellacked in '20. you had a fizzle in '22 that underperformed. and '23, your great idea of overturning roe v. wade, which you and the judges promised you wouldn't do, has also been rejected in states red, blue, and purple. i think it goes to what rachel is saying and what you've documented and what you've written about, when that many people don't believe in the tenets of democracy, they don't adjust. >> you don't need to be popular. you just need power. >> it's not religion without religion. it is religion.

and i think what we have to actually confront -- and this is what the democrats are going to face -- is this is now what white evangelicalism is. it is christian nationalism. these are people, to robert jones again from pri, who does these numbers, they believe that god has promised them specifically white evangelical christians of a certain mindset that they own this country, that immigrants, that brown people, that hindus like vivek ramaswamy and his wife are illegitimate americans. they are less legitimate americans than they are. they're not trying to convince people and win people over through politics. what they're saying is, we own this country, and everyone will bow down to us. and donald trump -- ben carson was on right wing tv earlier tonight comparing donald trump to king david. >> that's the big one. >> and saying that his vulgarity itself is not something that makes him unsuitable to be the leader of the christian movement. it makes him a legend of the

christian movement because, like david, his flaws are simply more evidence that god is using him. there's nothing he can do, no vulgarity, no cruelty, saying, you should vote anyway even if you die. and i will -- i've said it before and i'll say it again. religion is when your savior dies for you. a cult is when your savior says you need to die for him. >> in authoritarian movements, the whole point is that the leader is beyond reason, right? the leader is the source of the truth. there can be no reasoning with it. there is no rationality behind it. there is no way to factually argue with it. if you want to put a religious argument behind it, you can. it boils down to whether you're religious or not. it boils down to you're putting my faith in one person and thereby insisting that my country get rid of democracy because my faith is in that person who should rule by any means. it can be religious, doesn't have to be religious. but it's the authoritarian playbook the world over and for

centuries. and luckily we have garrett haake at trump victory party headquarters in des moines to talk to us about being there in king david's camp. garrett, i know you have some reporting for us tonight on trump's next moves, what he's planning after having been projected tonight's winner. >> reporter: yeah. that's right. rachel, we talked for months about the ways in which donald trump's political and legal calendars are sometimes at odds and there's no better example of what we're going to see tomorrow when donald trump is expected on route to new hampshire to stop in new york city to appear for the first day of the second e. jean carroll defamation case against him. i don't expect it to be a long visit in new york, and donald trump will end the day tomorrow with the kind of triumphant next day in new hampshire rally that we've come to expect from iowa caucus winners here. but it is another example, like we saw last week, when he took two days off the trail here in

iowa, to go appear in two different courtrooms on two separate cases of the way in which his legal and political entanglements are sometimes at odds with each other. i just say sometimes because in the time i've spent covering this campaign, especially the last eight or nine days or so on the ground in iowa, i have to tell you that especially among his supporters that even among republicans i've talked to in iowa who were planning to caucus for donald trump, it is baked in now that all of these cases against him are part of an effort to stop him outside the normal bounds of how elections are supposed to work. the idea of election interference or democratic prosecutors or joe biden's doj, whatever it may be going after donald trump has been an article of faith, especially among the maga foughtful who are caucusing for him tonight. but not just among that group. and i expect you'll see that dynamic continue to play out after tomorrow's stop over for court in new york on the way to new hampshire.

>> alex wagner is trying -- the reason we are paused is alex wagner i think is trying to jump in there. do we have alex's mic? >> can i talk? >> i think you can talk. >> i live in a dog cone. garrett, it's alex wagner. my question is at the big kid's table on the main set, they were talking about this interesting breakdown of iowa caucus goers. again, these are entry polls. but if donald trump were to be convicted of a crime, would you consider him fit to be president. 63% of respondents said yes, but 32% said no. you're talking about the responses you've got frn iowa caucus goers from federal trials and state trials, and these trump supporters seem to be dismissing out of hand the notion these are legitimate exercises in justice. what crimes do you think 32% of iowa caucus goers are thinking

are legit enough that they might disqualify donald trump from being president? do you think that they're -- in other words, what is the, sort of, awareness level of the, sort of, ins and outs of these trials? do you have a sense of whether that's -- or specifically these trials we're talking about as being disqualifying? >> i think it's a great question because when i talk to caucus goer ls about this, particular the trump faithful who you find at these rallies, there's not a level of familiarity with the ins and outs of the specifics of any of these cases. i think it's hard for me to say which one of them would be potentially most damaging to them. i don't think anything having to do with election interference of january 6 would be there, in part because again that narrative is so baked in that january 6th isn't what you and i witnessed it to be. so many of these people truly believe. the classified documents case is a little bit different because people are less familiar with that evidence.

but this is part of a bigger phenomenon that i've noticed covering this campaign compared to 2020 and certainly compared to 2016. i cannot emphasize enough how different of a media environment the really committed trump supporters operate in than do viewers of this broadcast. i mean, it is -- fox news is far downstream even from some of the other conservative outlets that these people are watching and consuming. they are operating in a totally different media ecosystem. and it's just a very different set of coverage, set of facts, that are presented to a lot of these folks. it is a completely different universe. so, determining what that information would be that could actually be disqualifying and how it would get to these voters i think are very, very useful questions, as we continue to go forward and these trials get underway. it won't be portended in the same way on a broadcast like this. >> perhaps there are crimes that have not been committed or tried. thank you for doing the hard work down in iowa. back to you, rachel. >> alex, wait.

alex, while i've got you here, we were having this very spirited debate on set here about what it means that two-thirds of the iowa caucus-going -- iowa republican caucus goers say that joe biden legitimately is not the president and then those numbers that you were just saying. given that a third of iowa republican caucus goers say that trump effectively can't serve as president if he's convicted. how do you end up getting those -- how do you get those -- how do you get those two things, put them together, and end up with a national republican party that is going to pick donald trump as their nominee? >> well, i mean, i think one of the things garrett was saying is really important. i mean, the question, if donald trump were to be convicted of a crime, would you consider him fit to be president? it makes me think, given the, sort of, divide in the media ecosystem, that garrett told us about anecdotally that i'm not sure those iowa caucus goers are

thinking about the crimes we're thinking of. i think generally, as potentially a litmus test of a presidential candidate if he were convicted of a crime should and could he be president, on its face, perhaps they're saying no. but if you drill down deeper, i would be very curious to know if you specify, if donald trump were convicted in the special counsel's federal election interference trial in washington, d.c., would he still be fit to be president? i'm not sure the answer would be the same. i mean, i think that we are dealing with such a polarized, partisan landscape here in terms of information and basic facts that they're -- i would imagine a lot of these caucus goers have dismissed out of hand the notion that any of these trials would be fair, in the same way that two-thirds of them believe that joe biden is not the legitimate president of the united states. >> i guess what i would say, alex, i think that's possible. i also think -- i think the two-thirds/one-third partition is interesting and a useful rule

of thumb here honestly. i think those two questions are pretty revealing about a big divide in that electorate. we'll see what it ends up being. let's say he got 66% tonight. let's say donald trump got 66%. he's going to get less than that, right? but, like, they're -- we talk so much about his dominance over the party, how he controls the party, how everyone bends the knee to him. tonight nbc news called it for him as a projected winner nine and a half seconds into the hour. >> approximately. >> but when you're thinking about, like, persuasion, thinking about democracy, thinking about the election, i'm interested in that third. that's an -- that's stuff to work with in the same way that ron desantis misunderstood what material he had to work with. for the popular pro democracy majority in the country, which remains a democracy and remains a majority, that is something to work with in there. who are those folks in the one-third? that's where a lot of the --

that's where a lot of the work's going to be done. who are those people? >> we've been so focused as a country with every step of the legal accountability for trump on what republicans and what trump supporters will think. again, if you step back and you look at the big picture, when the first thing happened, which was the mar-a-lago search warrant, a majority of the public said that that was legitimate and that they supported it. and then there were the indictments. a majority of the country said the indictments were legitimate and they supported them. now you've got donald trump potentially facing disqualification from one or multiple ballots under the 14th amendment. again, a majority of the country, 56% of the country, says that they believe that donald trump -- >> out of colorado. >> -- should be disqualified on one or -- being on the ballot in one or more states. we have been worried about how it breaks down amongst his supporters and what he'll do and

what will happen among republicans. but in the country broadly people believe he's committed crimes. they want him prosecuted for them. and they want him locked up. >> can i say something superobvious? this is not as deep as some of the points to be made. there's a reason why republicans have spent decades doing the politics of law and investigations. they did it first. they did it to clinton. there were some legitimate things and questions. but what they did, the country ultimately rejected because they didn't think the president should be removed over the trumped up perjury. the hunter biden story obsesses them. that's not even about the president of the united states. about a family member with a situation. maybe he'll be convicted. he's still an ancillary figure to people's daily lives. i'm not saying everything republicans do is politically shrewd. i'm just saying it's debatable whether it's an open question over investigation, probe, legal process hurts you. i think it's hurt people for decades. >> and that's why that's all they think about.

>> and you have to remember, too, is that before he was indicted, had 91 counts, he couldn't beat joe biden. i'd still rather be biden in this because he beat him when trump was un-indicted. he couldn't mount an electoral college or a popular vote majority against joe biden before. and it's hard to imagine he's gaining voters by becoming indicted and by having e. jean carroll case and all the rest of it. i think that republicans -- again, it goes to the point i think that ari was making earlier. they have a band in the idea of growing their part. he has lost -- everything he has touched has turned to poop. for the last four years, he hasn't actually endorsed winning candidates. he hasn't produced winning candidates. he's been a loser for them over and over again. all you're left with is the faith of his voters that he's the better candidate and that he can beat joe biden because they don't believe he lost. >> joe, as you said, the election deniers lost in 2022.

they lost. many of them lost in the primaries m. of them lost in november. and leading up to it, it was still like, will people turn out and care about democracy? >> we didn't know. not knowing. >> right. and they did. meaning the democracy -- the good white hats turned out. it's offensive democracy. it's not a question that has been proven over and over again, including in polls but also when people vote. >> we need one more exit poll question for new hampshire, and it's a conviction question for republican voters. if hunter biden is convicted of tax evasion, can joe biden be elected president? would that be -- >> would you still vote? >> would that bar joe biden from being president? i want to see the people who answer -- the two-thirds who say you can convict trump of any crime and he should still be president. and then i want to know how many

of them believe that if hunter biden is convicted of tax evasion, joe biden -- >> can't do it. you're done. you're done, kid. >> they'd say, who cares. >> let's go back to iowa, where jacob soboroff has been at a high school watching all these different caucuses rolling out over the course of the night. he was able to talk to the local county republican chair. we saw some of the speeches from candidates there. how has this been rolling out over the last couple of hours? >> you know i heard what we said about the projection that turnout was lower than in previous years. while it does look like a lot of people are here, about 1,000 showed up, it's far less than nearly double that in 2016. rachel, the final tabulations are happening right now. and i'm going to try to sneak through here and see if we can get an up-close look at this while everybody's -- sorry to -- excuse me. pardon us. excuse us. so, what they're doing here,

these orange pieces of paper -- excuse me for one second. i just want to get a closeup look at that board. come on in, guys. yeah. just looking at this quickly, it looks like trump has really cleaned up at this location. these are different precincts. if you look vertically. horizontally are the results. and then just take a look. it's not hard to see here. trump, 16, trump, 17. 2 for desantis. 26 in this precinct. 5 for haley. i just want to stress these are unofficial results until they're reported by the gop. but this is what it's looking like on the precinct level. 39. 3 for ramaswamy. 6 for haley. 28, 31, 38 compared to 12 for desantis. so, second place here looks like desantis. i haven't added them all up. but you get the idea, guys. it looks like trump cleaned up here. turn around here so they can see everybody's walking to get the results here. >> and jacob, have things run

smoothly? >> reporter: things have gone relatively smoothly. in fact, to make them run even more smoothly, i'll move out of the way slightly. go ahead, go ahead. the whole process is doing exactly what she's doing, rachel, taking the precinct level results with those orange pieces of paper and then reporting the results out on this white board. but, yeah, i mean, it's 8:29 p.m. local time. 9:30 where you are. and this is exactly what trudy, our friend from earlier, was telling me she thought was going to happen in the time frame she thought it was going to happen. and trump looks to have a significant advantage here, guys. >> and if nothing else, iowa is a testament to the importance and beauty of excellent handwriting. so, please pass on to those posting on that board that they're doing -- their arabic numerals there are very impressive. thank you, jacob. much appreciated, my friend. with trump now the projected winner in iowa, we are watching

nikki haley and ron desantis slugging it out for second place, which could be a very consequential thing. we've been talking all night about how ron desantis essentially moved his entire campaign to iowa. he is not above single digits in the polling in any other state besides iowa. nikki haley is. she does have that advantage. this could be a do or die night for ron desantis, as he battles it out for second place with nikki haley. we're expecting a lot of votes to start coming in in the next few minutes. we're going to take a quick break and come back and talk about that battle for second place and what else we're seeing roll in with iowa results. stay with us. iowa results. stay with us ♪hey♪ ♪ ♪are you ready for me♪ ♪are you ready♪ ♪are you ready♪ ♪ upbeat music ♪ asthma. it can make you miss out on those epic hikes with friends. step back out there, with fasenra. fasenra is an add-on treatment for eosinophilic asthma

that is taken once every 8 weeks. fasenra helps prevent asthma attacks. most patients did not have an attack in the first year. fasenra is proven to help you breathe better so you can get back to doing day-to-day activities. and fasenra helps lower the use of oral steroids. fasenra is not for sudden breathing problems or other eosinophilic conditions. allergic reactions may occur. don't stop your asthma treatments without talking with your doctor. tell your doctor if your asthma worsens. headache and sore throat may occur. tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. get back to better breathing. get back to what you've missed. ask your doctor about fasenra, the only asthma treatment taken once every 8 weeks. if you can't afford your medication astrazeneca may be able to help. are you still struggling with your bra? it's time for you to try knix. makers of the world's comfiest wireless bras. for revolutionary support without underwires, and sizes up to a g-cup,

find your new favorite bra today at knix.com

not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives of banks, big pharma, even top administration officials. katie porter. never taken corporate pac money - never will. leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks” that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message.

♪♪ looking at live images there of frigid iowa tonight. nbc news is projecting that donald trump will be the winner of the iowa caucuses. as we continue to see the vote trickle in, very small amount of the actual vote in thus far, what we're watching is both the margin by which trump will win, by which he will beat the second place finisher, but also who's the second place finisher. between ron desantis and nikki haley, it's more than just bragging rights to see who can be runner up, who can be the silver medal way behind trump. it's also a question of whether or not the of two or either of them have a reason to live proverbially speaking, whether

they have a justification for keeping their campaign going. nikki haley probably heading into tonight had the better case to make for that just because she's polling very well in new hampshire. the new hampshire electorate looks very much like a nikki haley style electorate. and then the next state after that is her home state of south carolina. ron desantis really put everything into iowa. so, his result in iowa is not going to be what he predicted at one point during the campaign, which was a win. but the strength of his finish and whether or not he is a second place finisher to trump or a third place finisher to trump, and haley may be an existential question for ron desantis. for more on that important distinction between the second and third place candidates, whoever they may be, we go back to steve kornacki to look, sort of, inside some of these results that we're getting. steve, when you're looking at these results, focusing not so much on trump but on desantis haley, are either of them overperforming or

underperforming what you would have expected from the polling? >> again, it's a little tough to say. in so many of these counties, we're looking at 1, 2, 3, very small number of presipgts. there could be more variability that comes in. the thing with haley, the higher the degrees, the urban areas, the better she's expected to do. we talked about that. nothing has changed here. this is a county she would want to be winning. this is where iowa state university is, where ames is. we've got a little more in here. and haley continuing to lead there. these are the kinds of counties she wants to do well in. this is blackhawk county. the city of waterloo is here. this is interesting because we have a fair amount of vote in from blackhawk county. compare it to 2016. cruz and rubio -- it's a tightly bunched race here.

i think it is interesting haley has a little distance from desantis here. this is the kind of county, between haley and desantis i think this could be a potential barometer because of the mix of the population here. there are -- it's not a hunl number of college degrees, even though northern iowa is there. there's also the city of waterloo. there's cedar falls. there's a lot in this county. this is one where, show me who comes in second at the end of the night here. i think that could be very telling. another place to look is the obvious place to look. we are starting to get a little bit more in now from polk county than we had earlier. it was just a precinct. in the past, like, 17% of all the caucus vote has come out of polk county. and, again, you're talking about a high concentration of college degrees here. obviously the city of des moines is here, a lot of suburbs in polk as well. look at how this one went in 2016. trump lagged here a bit. if he'd done better in poke, he could have potentially had a win

state-wide. rubio and cruz -- this was a rubio county. cruz ran about 500 behind him. this is a point and a half basically between them. this is the kind of place i think, pay close attention in polk to the haley and desantis mark. if haley is getting some distance on desantis, that means potentially a lot of raw votes and could help her getting second place state-wide. if desantis is able to keep it close with haley in this county -- and you see in the early going he's ahead of her. if desantis is able to get second place or keep it close with haley, he's doing himself a world of good. we've got a little bit more in now. sioux county, again, this was trump's deeply religious, deeply evangelical, looking in the northwest corner of the state. how many of these is desantis going to be? this is a good result for him so far in sioux county. lyon county hasn't changed, as we showed you. this is 11 votes. these are the kinds of counties

where desantis doesn't want to be at 18. he wants to be in the 30s, i think, as a target. so, we'll see, as more precincts come in. but in the northwest, if he wins them, that's great for him. if he's in the 30s, i think that's probably hitting a target for him in those kinds of counties tonight. we just don't have enough vote in to tell right now. obviously i think a good bellwether could be blackhawk county. pay attention to polk county. warren county south of polk county. this is another one of those counties -- huckabee, santorum, and cruz. this is one of those counties that went with the evangelical candidate. and, again, trump now is winning here overwhelmingly. desantis probably wants to be in the 30s here. now we've got 10% of the vote in state-wide. and as you can see, desantis has jumped over haley. we check a second to see what just came in here. it was what? okay. i can't quite here. but anyway, we got -- oh, mississippi river county just came in. yeah, clinton county. so, yeah, trump continuing over

50% here. expect -- these numbers, i think, are going to back and forth. when you get more numbers in, this number is going to go up. when you get more rural counties in, this number is going to go up. and more to the point, this number is going to come down because haley doesn't seem to be doing well in the rural areas right now. >> thinking about what happens after this and how many tickets out of iowa there are, as they say, i feel like i can't imagine what happens next for nikki haley because i don't think she needs iowa. it would be great and it would give her a lot of big momentum. let's say nikki haley comes in third, ron desantis comes in second. let's say it's 20% and 18%. what does ron desantis do next? because ron desantis is at single digits in new hampshire, hasn't had any campaign anywhere other than iowa. what happens to him next if he comes in second? >> i mean, one of the most interesting things to watch tonight is going to be how these candidates handle it when they go out and speak, right? because historically, candidates

will go out and they'll claim victory even when they got second or third. people stood for me. i had momentum. you're like, wait, you didn't win. hold on a second. that's happened long before this caucus f. you're ron desantis, think a second place is great for him. and he, dare i say -- because the expectations a little bit are that haley was going to beat him in iowa. and trump even thinks that haley is going to beat him because trump yesterday said about haley, you're going to find out a lot about her in the next short period of time. which is very moby. but it also means he's threatened by her. and don jr. went to a caucus site where she was tonight to attack her. >> he physically went to the same caucus? >> same one. the reporting suggests they didn't interact, but they clearly -- she's the one who makes them nervous. if desantis beats her, she still has her pathway in new hampshire. if you're desantis, you're going to claim victory. >> those are also very different voters. with immigration being the top

issue for iowa voters, nikki haley doesn't represent what they're looking for. she's going to take a turn here. and think about all the classic republicans, the business set. you know where they are tonight? in da voe, switzerland. when they hear the people who overwhelming support donald trump are anti-immigrant -- they're not. we have a huge labor shortage in this country. there's a big portion of classic republicans that are scratching their heads -- >> but they're not the majority of the electorate though. >> correct. >> that's the thing. of the republican electorate. maybe the majority of the overall electorate. >> the other thing that helps in new hampshire obviously is it is an open primary. the caucuses are technically open. you can come and register that night. but new hampshire is fully open for independents to come and vote. and we've seen that vote carry people that might perform differently than iowa. nikki haley has that obviously going for her. a huge part of the issue here -- we talk about trump's dominance in the republican party. one of the things i think we

don't talk about enough is he's just chased a lot of people out. there's a bunch of romney voters and we see all day now and vote like democrats. there's ton high, everyone. there's tons of those people. so, those voters are not in there in the caucus. >> it's not like the republican party isn't competitive in the national polling right now. and nbc's national polling right now, trump is beating biden. >> i'm not saying anything about the competitors. i just mean the kind of person who considers himself a republican has been changed by trump enough that some of the votes that would be needed for a nikki haley, for instance, are not there because they're not republicans. so, that makes the math harder. >> if you're the campaign -- if you're running the campaigns for nikki haley and ron desantis, you each have to do one specific thing. if you're ron desantis and you do come in second, you have to make a choice. you either need to move your entire operation to south carolina -- >> correct. >> -- and try to pull a barack obama where they split -- >> and go there first, before new hampshire. >> right.

you have to remember, it's the other evangelical state. since he's built his strategy on getting white evangelical voters to come to him, he has to go immediately there. you can't lose florida to donald trump without being humiliated and going down in flames. so, you have to make a decision how much of your resources go to south carolina versus florida. if you're nikki haley, you go immediately to south carolina, right? you have to obviously win new hampshire. not win but -- i'm saying win when i say come in second. she'll do decently in new hampshire, but she absolutely has to perform well in south carolina. it's the other evangelical. >> she has a chance to win in new hampshire. she is within single digits of donald trump in new hampshire. it is not going to help her if she comes in third tonight. she has to go all the way. >> in new hampshire she is. she can't lose her home state. >> this whole thing about how many tickets out of iowa just depends who you ask. the political professionals, the press, which is interested in this, everyone who loves to

follow politics, let's follow as long as it goes. if we return to the fact there is an anti-trump wing of this party, it might be more embattled than last time. last time it was over 50% if you pooled all the other votes. that wing and the donor class would like to find the alternative now. trump just won iowa, which means pressuring the -- trump's saying that if he's in a one on one. >> right. >> but the trump campaign and status quo maga would love for this to just play out over a couple of states. >> if desantis comes in second in iowa, i think we have a relatively long republican primary. and if desantis gets shellacked, i think we have a relatively short republican primary, at least in terms of it being reduced to two. >> the problem for haley, if she does well tonight or even if she does really well in new hampshire, she has to have a path after that. and the electorate in the states after new hampshire is much more

like iowa than new hampshire. new hampshire is a unique unicorn in some ways in the early primary states. it's much more independent. it's much more of the people's stuff talking about. she could have money, but it's like how are you going to -- >> if she wins to new hampshire, she gets to super tuesday. >> yes. but she still has to have a path to winning in those states that are more like iowa than new hampshire. >> and i think to the point you made, steph, it's the elephant in the room. she's still a brown lady that's got to try to win in a party that is deeply anti-immigrant and which accepts the notion you can say immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country. she's getting birthered by donald trump. which will ramp up a lot the better she does in new hampshire. it's still a challenge. i don't see how she becomes the nominee of that party with donald trump still around. i can't picture it happening. maybe it could happen. ron desantis' only argument for

staying in it is he's the white guy, that he can still make the appeal to white evangelicals. >> if you look in the lower left hand corner of your screen, you'll see a big chunk of the vote has come in. now we are up to 34%. steve, can you tell us what's come in and what this big chunk of votes indicates? >> a whole lot of it here. we went from 7 to 34 in the span of ten minutes, and i expect it to jump significantly very shortly. a couple places now where we've gone from a scattering to the majority, nearly all the vote in some places. i think the most notable return we got is from the suburbs just west of des moines. this is dallas county. again, a broken record with this, but this is one of those high-income, high college degree. this was a marco rubio county in 2016. you can see this. rubio got 34% of the vote. this was a double digit win. this is the classic republican bedroom suburban community right

outside the state's biggest city of des moines. and you can see how much of the vote we do have in here. three quarters about. donald trump, who finished third here in 2016, comfortably ahead. now, nikki haley is in second place, but look at that. it's haley, 25.8. it's desantis 25.8. that's a dichbs of two votes at this point between haley and desantis. it seems clear trump's going to get the win in dallas county. i think that's significant given there's the college/non-college divide we've been talking about. for trump, if he gets a win in a county like this, this is hostile territory for him relatively speaking. haley coming in second here, that's got to be her goal. it's got to be second with some space. if she wants second place state-wide, it's got to be a second. it's not two votes ahead of ron desantis. for her right now, the story is forget about the trump number. in a county like this, it's haley versus desantis. she's got to beat him. and the margin between haley and desantis -- she's got to pad some vote here. other places we're starting to

get a lot of the vote in t a lotn from where he ran in 2016. these are the kind of political bridges he's built in the last eight years in these kinds of counties. these are rural, small population, low college degree attainment. and look at where trump is performing here right now. again, haley, second place here. it's just a question of a few votes. this is better than rubio did in 2016. she's only seven votes ahead of desantis with what you've got. we were tracking johnson county earlier. this is, in general elections, the most democratic county in iowa. this is where iowa city is here. haley was leading in the early count here. she's now been passed by donald trump. again, that would be somewhat significant if trump were able to win a county like this. this is one of the most ill-suited to him in a republican caucus, certainly a general election. trump now is ahead a little bit.

haley does have a bit of a pad here over desantis. you could see it's about 400 votes. take a look in 2016, rubio was able to get 800 more than the state-wide winner, ted cruz, who he was chasing. about 900 more than donald trump. so, again, haley wants to have as big a pad as she can in a county like this. forget trump at this point for her. she'd love to see it colored in her shade of red, but she wants to get a pad here over desantis. still remaining to be seen, we're sitting at 29% in sioux county. i think this is a little bit more, just a sliver more than the last time we checked in. this is the kind of county that desantis wants to be getting a pad over nikki haley. again, this is a good number out of sioux for ron desantis. we're waiting -- we only got a sliver more out of lyon county. this is the kind of county -- he's coming in second. if the margin stays like this, 12-9 for second place, that's not what desantis needs at all. we need to wait for more vote to

come in right there. as we check in, 37% state-wide right now. there's a difference there of 629 votes between haley and desantis that equate to 1.3%. so, again, population centers, haley wants to build up a gap between herself and desantis. and desantis, especially in the north western part of the state, but really throughout the state. all of these counties that went huckabee, santorum, cruz, he'll take any wins he can get. but he needs a pad in all these counties over haley. this is a close race for second place. i think you've been talking a little bit about this. we're also settling into a pattern here maybe where if this is just a difference ultimately between ali getting 20 and desantis getting 19, desantis getting 20, haley getting 19, and meanwhile donald trump is sitting there 32 points ahead of them, what does that second place do? you're talking about haley is set up in new hampshire almost regardless of what happens here tonight to take her shot at donald trump there. that's a state he's always

looked the most vulnerable. if desantis gets second place here and it's a couple points ahead of haley. it's a little more of an update here. and it's 32 points behind donald trump, what does that position him for? >> steve, can i ask you while we're looking at the iowa state-wide numbers. lower left-hand side there, there's a tiny down arrow with the yellow shade. can you hit that? >> i've been neglecting to show you the rest of the field. >> show me what's happening with vivek. >> vivek ramaswamy -- we saw him, i believe, at 7% in our final poll. he's at 7.78. hutchinson, the former governor of arkansas. i think he made one debate stage way back, .2% for him. chris christie, name still on this ballot, sitting there with 20 votes. but there are other candidates down there. >> mr. ramaswamy below 8%. that puts him on track with the latest polls. >> this is very similar. again, our final poll, haley at 20, desantis at 16. the question to mark about

turnout, we had trump at 48 in that final poll. so, again, that final poll, the exit poll, and the results so far all pretty much in line. and it really does look like it's going to be a close fight here for second place. we need to see more vote obviously. i told you the basic dinam ibs that we're following. but a very tight race for second. trump showing the improvements he had whether it's in the rural counties where he's running 40 points better, whether it's johnson county for for the moment he's taken the lead over nikki haley. johnson county should be one of the worst on the map for donald trump, outside of sioux, northwest, iowa. the inroads he's made here, roads to 2016. it's hard to remember but at this time last year in 2023, the whole reason desantis got in, the whole reason haley got in was there was polling at the start of 2023 that had donald trump losing to desantis. the average poll had him under 40% for a while, a single point national race. from that point to where he is

finishing tonight, the turning point obviously being the first indictment in march of 2023. these are some gigantic gains he's made. >> the previous record, the biggest margin ever was 12 points and here we are looking at 32. we're going to take a quick break. we'll be right back on the other side of this, as our coverage of the iowa republican caucuses continues. hi, i'm greg. i live in bloomington, illinois. i'm not an actor. i'm just a regular person. some people say, "why should i take prevagen? i don't have a problem with my memory." memory loss is, is not something that occurs overnight. i started noticing subtle lapses in memory. i want people to know that prevagen has worked for me. it's helped my memory. it's helped my cognitive qualities.

give it a try. i want it to help you just like it has helped me. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. shingles. the rash can feel like pulsing, electric shocks and last for weeks. a pain so intense, you could miss out on family time. the virus that causes shingles is likely already inside of you. 50 years or older? ask your doctor about shingles. it ain't my dad's razor, dad. ay watch it! it's from gillettelabs. this green bar releases trapped hairs from my face... gamechanga! ...while the flexdisc contours to it. so the five blades can get virtually every hair in one stroke. for the ultimate gillette shaving experience. the best a man can get is gillettelabs. in order for small businesses to thrive, for they need to belette smart, efficient, savvy. making the most of every opportunity. that's why comcast business is introducing the small business bonus. for a limited time you can get up to $1000 prepaid card with qualifying internet. yup, $1000. so switch to business internet from the company with the largest fastest reliable network.

give your business a head start in 2024 with this great offer. plus, ask how to get up to $1000 prepaid card with qualifying internet. ♪♪ welcome back to our special coverage of the iowa republican

caucuses. the big news of the night of course is the news you probably already heard. very early on after the caucuses opened, nbc news projected that the winner tonight of the iowa caucuses will be former president donald trump. now, that was very much expected by polling heading into tonight. the question for trump's campaign essentially is whether or not he will end up at 50% or above, which would be a historic proportion of the vote, whether he will, as it appears he will, have a margin over his closest competitor that breaks or potentially even doubles, maybe triples, every previous winning margin by every republican caucus winner in iowa. those are the very happy questions that the trump campaign is mulling tonight. the more tense questions are further down. among the remaining candidates, specifically nikki haley and ron desantis, as to which of them will get second place, what the

margin will be between the two of them, and how badly each of them will be shellacked by donald trump. in terms of the funding for the campaigns, the expectations of the campaigns -- nikki haley is looking to a much easier go of it in new hampshire, which is the next contest next week, than ron desantis is. that said f nikki haley can't compete with evangelical voters, the next race after new hampshire is in her home state of south carolina, where even though she's the former governor of south carolina, she's got a very pro-trump, very strongly evan yell cal electorate to contend with there. and as my colleague, jen psaki, was electorates that are somewhat similar to that which have been challenging to her. so, both ron desantis and nikki haley have tough logs ahead of them. the question is whether or not

either of them is gonna be able to claim any sort of momentum tonight with a second place finish, some stronger than expected finish, that might cause donors or indeed voters to give them a second look. now, chris hayes, one of the things that you were just talking about was the issue of abortion and how that is motivating voters tonight in iowa. we have a little bit of information on that, i believe, from the entrance polls. >> here's what's curious, i think there is a question of a national abortion ban. and -- we have half of it. we asked folks in this entrance poll, do you favor law banning abortions nationwide. here we go, here's how those favoring it broke down. and you can see, donald trump getting just over half, 53%. ron desantis made it a big part of his campaign, 27%. nikki haley just at 11, and ramaswamy at nine. i don't believe we have the second part of this poll, unfortunately. gonna try one more time.

but the point of this is that nikki haley is doing much better than she is with that group, although she has been insisting on the campaign trail, you know, she says she is all for abortion as anybody else's. but it backs that divide here. i'm sorry, it's just not -- >> i'm interested in that for a few reasons, one is in terms of taking the temperature of the use of this segment of the electorate, which is sort of the most, and that's not that surprising, although it's actually pretty interesting that 36% oppose, amongst this crowd, right? i mean, i think probably before dobbs, that number would be lower, right? we for the sort of dobbs overturning of roe, i think that some people who have had some second thoughts about that. and i also think it shows, and this is one of the things that i think it's important to keep in mind throughout the rest of this is that abortion politics have not proven to be much of a wedge or very sticky in the primary. again, this keeps being a theme. what's coming up in the primary? what people -- it's gonna be a

big one in the national election and there's gonna be huge support among the institutions in the republican party, the conservative movement, evangelicals that are giving trump support for a national abortion ban. and there's gonna be a push for that. there's gonna be a lot of dissembling from the republican nominee, whoever it is, about whether they intend that. but keep that number in mind. >> okay but then that's the question for jen, how does the biden white house look at tonight, right? you have an overwhelming amount of evangelicals in a white state, white influential state backing trump who delivered them a supreme court that overturned roe v. wade. and on the other side, when we get to a general election, there are millions of americans who are not enthused about politics or not even so enthused about joe biden, who have shown that they have come out in droves to vote for the exact opposite of the one issue that motivates evangelical voters. >> look, i think they are looking at this and they're gonna continue to shove donald trump's three judges on the supreme court down his throat

because they have made a decision, and we have seen this, and the president has talked, and in some of the advertising they've done, that joe biden running as the person who is going to protect abortion rights against donald trump who said sort of to his credit, because it is reality that the politics of the republican party is back on abortion rights, she was statement by donald trump. but they will paint him as for the abortion ban. that is exactly what they will do. i think if they are sitting here watching all of this, it's a little counterintuitive, because normally, if you are on the other side, especially an income, you want the party to go on as long as possible so they can fight each other out and kind of spent a lot of money, and joe biden is actually being helped a lot a little bit by this because in new hampshire, where people thought, many people, myself included, that joe biden would lose support in new hampshire because he wasn't on the ballot, he's actually doing better there because he's benefiting from all the attacks on donald trump. but overall, they want this to be a clear race between biden and trump for the electric.

and there's a surprising number, i think you mentioned this earlier, chris, people who don't think that that is what the race is going to be. and until it's crystallized, it's hard for them to run the race against donald trump. >> in fact, there is that polling showed a lot of people, i think even a majority didn't think that he would be the nominee. in that respect, there is a little bit of a jiu-jitsu moment here for them, which is donald trump is obviously, he likes to win stuff so he's gonna be very, very excited. he'll be like, i want. look how big i won. he's gonna read all those poll numbers, all the counties he won. also, it can be a crystallizing moment for the biden campaign to say, like, he is gonna be the nominee, against this guy, the guy that got kicked off social media, and you are not reading him on truth social, and you're not seeing the utterly sane and vile things he sang every day, and he has receded to the background of it, and you've got some gauzy recollections of him because you don't want to think about him. it's gonna be him, that guy, the one that you don't want to think about, it's gonna be that guy. >> and they are doing that. it's just not working yet, right? i mean, they don't utter the name nikki haley or ron

desantis. it doesn't come out of their mouth or anybody who works their typically. they're trying to run against trump. but people still don't think that is gonna be the nominee. is it because they think he's gonna be convicted? their view is that actually, people are not tuned in -- >> can i ask you a question? i am struck by, say a little bit -- it is still 48, 49% of the electorate in a heavily white evangelical state who said not true, said something other than trump is what we want. sure, it's gonna brag about getting 52%, but 52% ain't 100%, not 80%. he is a former president who is sort of playing the role of an incumbent, who is at 52, which means that there is room for something else. now, this is something else is the other guy who passed a six-week abortion ban, ron desantis, and the guy who sued disney. or nikki haley who said she is also willing to sign a national abortion ban, slight degrees of

difference between the other alternatives. but how does the white house look at the fact that there is apparently an opening, even in a state like iowa for something other than trump? >> i don't think they think there's an opening in iowa, just to be clear. it's like 100,000 more registered republicans there than was in 2016. i don't think they're gonna invest resources there. but it's a very interesting question to watch moving forward, right? especially if it becomes a longer republican primary race. does trump, i mean, 49%, it's not great for him actually in electric and a lot of these future states. does that happen? we don't know yet. but for the biden team, once you start to get to states that are actually swing states, it will become a really interesting question. >> this point about the biden campaign and how democrats are feeling about these results and how the general election is shaping up, we actually have somebody to talk to who may know something about this from the inside. the national democratic party, of course, last year decided to drop the iowa caucuses as the

first in the nation contests for the democrat's presidential nomination, ending 50 years of the iowa caucuses being first for the democrats. in iowa this year, democrats will choose their nominee in a primary that's gonna be conducted by mail in ballots. there results have been released on march 5th, on super tuesday. that means the democrats are not contesting the democratic presidential nomination in iowa tonight. the democrats are not really contesting the democratic presidential nomination this year in any significant way. and that means that democrats right now are essentially very interested spectators watching what is happening with donald trump and the rest of the republican field in iowa and ahead in the next states that are going to decide this nomination. joining us now from des moines is jp pritzker. he's the governor of illinois. he's an adviser of the biden harris campaign and he is in that capsule tonight for the biden harris campaign, watching what's happening in iowa. governor, it's great to see you, thank you very much for being here tonight. >> >> great to be with you,

rachel. >> so, we had a quick call tonight, a quick projection from our network, and indeed from other networks, that trump was gonna be the winner. it looks like he's gonna be the overwhelming winner tonight in the iowa republican caucuses. as an adviser to the biden harris campaign and as a democratic governor of illinois, what is your reaction to that news? >> well, i think joy had it right. almost half of the base of the republican party showing up for this caucus tonight voted against donald trump. think about that. i mean, this is the most famous republican. he's the guy who, you know, basically built the modern republican party, the maga republican party that the democrats are running against. and half of the people in that party did not vote for donald trump. so, i think that is telling. it tells you the weakness of donald trump. and also, the opportunity for democrats. because in the end, look, if the base doesn't turn out for donald trump in the general

election, enthusiastically, and democrats turn out its base, this is all about, you know, independents. and independents don't like donald trump. so, i think we are in a pretty good place tonight to see what's happening on the republican side if donald trump in fact is the winner tonight, and able to win in new hampshire and in south carolina, probably the race is over. but the truth is that all of these candidates are running as sort of mini me trump republicans. they all have exactly the position that you mentioned earlier, six-week ban on abortion. they want a national abortion ban. the republican party is standing against working families. and donald trump is representative of this, everything that is wrong with the current environment in politics. >> governor, we are used to, in the news business, as political observers, we are used now to donald trump saying that the

2020 election was stolen, and that he really was reelected by a gigantic margin in this sort of parallel universe in which he is secretly still president or something. we are used to hearing those claims from former president trump, and a lot of that lead into the efforts to overturn the 2020 election which has become a criminal matter in federal and state court, in the state of georgia. what we are used to watching that and seeing, but tonight, we are seeing entrust poll results filed in iowa showing that two thirds of iowa republican caucus goers tonight do not believe that joe biden was legitimately elected president in 2020. it's not just trump. that's two thirds, it's a larger number than donald trump will win tonight among iowa republican caucus goers. what do you make of that poll finding? and what does the biden harris campaign have to do to contend with that fantasy among republican voters at large? >> well, there is no doubt the

republican party, especially donald trump, have been pushing out falsehoods for years now. i do think that republicans, many of them, especially the base of the base, and that's really who shows up at the caucus, right? they believe the craziness that in fact joe biden, that he wasn't elected in 2020. and donald trump feeds into that falsehood. he does it every time on virtually every issue. and i do think that it's gonna be incumbent upon us, on democrats, on joe biden, to make sure we are telling the truth and we are making sure people understand what is really going on in this race, and what each candidate truly stands for. once again, someone, i think in your whole panel, actually, believes that abortion is going to be a major issue in this campaign. i think that's one that's gonna be very hard for them to prevaricate about. the truth is that it's been joe biden and kamala harris, they are standing up for a woman's right to choose, reproductive rights in general, for

protecting peoples freedoms. and i think that will come through in the general election once the republicans have settled in on their nominee. >> governor pritzker, it's alex wagner. to the degree that the biden campaign understands that this is going to be a very close general election in november, how worried is the campaign about third party candidates? there have been some marginal support for robert f. kennedy junior, cornell west, jill stein. we're gonna see a test of that in south carolina, which was very good to president biden in 2020, but where there has been some increasingly, sort of, distance between him and black voters in the state. and i wonder if you can talk a little bit about how the biden campaign sees the third-party challenges. >> well, those of us who are old enough to remember that bush gore race in 2000, you know, we know that the third party candidates can really make a difference in a negative way. but the truth is if you look at,

for example, robert kennedy junior's numbers, he is roughly polling half and half from each side. i don't think that he will have a big effect. maybe one or 2% with the other candidates. but, again, we haven't even run the race yet. if you look at what's happening, people are just now beginning to pay some attention. but they don't know who the republican nominee is gonna be, even though we are all saying that trump is running ahead. so, i don't think that they've had a chance yet to truly measure what it will mean, the two visions, one against another. so, i think once joe biden is out there, actually running against donald trump directly, we're gonna see a significantly development for the present. >> governor pritzker, there is been inter democratic consternation reporting, which i know is that most frustrating thing for a campaign to hear about, and to have reported on, and to have respond to. but i'm gonna ask you to respond to it.

is there a reason to worry? have you had any worry about whether or not the biden campaign is being nimble enough, aggressive enough, acting early enough, well funded enough, well organized enough to stand up against what looks like an early de facto nomination by the republican party? and a trump campaign that seems to be, if nothing else, more professional, and a better ground game in iowa than they did when they had to run the last time around. what do you make about the strength of the harris biden campaign, of the biden harris campaign right now, and how they responded to some of that internal democratic criticism? >> well, they are building the infrastructure for delivering in november. and so, i don't think you have, you know, seen what they can do. what i know is that, yeah, there was some bed-wetting for sure in the fall, when people started to see some polls that they didn't like, your just

overall concern. i think the reality is that things are much better now. there is real confidence that's developing among supporters. and it's partly because new polling data in the swing states, partly because the significant haul of resources it's been brought into the biden harris campaign, so a lot of faith shown there. and partly because the economic numbers are getting better. people are earning more money. inflation has gone down. the price of gas has gone down. mortgage rates are coming down. and that's all to the benefit of democrats and joe biden. so, over the next four, five, six months, i think as you see things improving economically, and people starting to really feel it because it would have been almost a full year in which things are getting better, i believe you're gonna start to see some real confidence developed all across the country. and in every state, and also for democrats. >> hi, governor. this is joy reid. i have a question, is it bed-wetting, though? i think there is some

significant anecdotal evidence that president biden does have some issues in terms of parts of the younger electorate that are not in a good place with him on things like gaza, on the, you know, bombing of yemen. they were just protest outside of the white house this past week. there's some energy that's building, particularly among arab american voters, muslim american voters, who say they will not vote for him because of his stance on gaza. is it bed-wetting? or is the white house maybe not paying enough attention to real passionate objections to its policies by younger voters that they need to turn out? and i mean, young voters, including younger african american voters. >> well, when you are irresponsible leader, when you are an office you have to make tough decisions, no doubt about it. and every time you have to make a tough decision, someone doesn't like it. the truth is that we've seen joe biden underestimated all

along in his entire career, and especially in 2020. in 2024, i think what we're gonna see is a real focus on the things that really matter to peoples individual lives, to their families, to their communities. and that is, you know, the economy. it means the freedoms. we talked about choice. a lot of places in the country, people are deeply concerned about gun violence, and we know that joe biden has stood up for a ban on assault weapons, and he has stood up for violence prevention programs in a way that republicans just want to let go, and frankly, let people shoot each other, wherever they may be, with as many guns as they want to have. so, i do think that focus on the issues that really matter to working families across the united states is gonna matter for joe biden in a positive way. now, there are always detractors. people who believe in the vote for trump, who don't like

things about donald trump. but in the end, when people are going to see the two visions for the future of america, that young people and people of color across the united states, not to mention the vast majority of american workers, know that it's joe biden that's fighting for them, and joe biden that will be better for them. donald trump would be a disaster for those groups. >> you don't think that the white house needs to adjust, to the biden reelection campaign needs to adjust in any way it's messaging on issues of these, because these are issues, we are on mlk day, and we do know that one of the things that dr. king did later in his life was to oppose the vietnam war. and this was an important issue to him, as important in the end of his life, as fighting for living wages and for racial justice. you know, issues of war and peace are passionate issues. they are voting issues. and for a lot of younger americans, not even just younger americans, but a lot of progressives, and a lot of people, who have a humanist view of the world. the gaza issue is a voting

issue. you are saying that people will ignore that? you don't think that the white house needs to in any way adjust its messaging on that? >> well, look there is what the white house has been doing. they're fighting, you know, what has become a mortal enemy of the united states, and that is vladimir putin. they are standing up for democracy in ukraine. they are fighting against terrorism in the middle east. those are the things that i think, the messages that the biden administration needs to make sure they're getting out to people. look, nobody likes war. i mean, we would like to have all of this ratcheted down, and go away. and i know the president once that, right? but you have to have a careful foreign policy expert in the white house who understands how to manage all that in a very difficult environment. you think donald trump has shown that he can do that? do you think donald trump would handle this better than joe biden? the answer is clearly no. >> illinois governor j.b. pritzker, an adviser to the biden harris campaign, really

appreciate your time tonight, sir, joining us from des moines. thanks very much. >> thank you, rachel. we're gonna take a quick break. as we go to break, take a look at these latest numbers. we are now at 38% of the vote in statewide iowa. i got, big news tonight, the projected winner is donald trump. right now, he stands above 52% of the vote, which is a historic margin. the big contest, the tight race here is for second place between ron desantis and nikki haley. again, with just 38% of the vote in, desantis just barely ahead of haley. look at the raw vote there, in terms of the total number of votes that we're talking about here. still a lot more to learn tonight about how this is gonna go. stay with us. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ [deep exhale] [trumpet music plays]

579 breaths to show 'em your stuff. every breath matters. don't let rsv take your breath away. protect yourself from rsv... ...with abrysvo, pfizer's rsv vaccine. abrysvo is a vaccine for the prevention of lower respiratory disease from rsv in people 60 years and older. rsv can be serious if you are 60 or older. having asthma, copd, diabetes, or heart disease puts you at even higher risk. abrysvo is not for everyone and may not protect all who receive the vaccine. don't get abrysvo if you've had a severe allergic reaction to its ingredients. people with a weakened immune system may have a decreased response to abrysvo. the most common side effects are tiredness, headache, pain at the injection site, and muscle pain. ask your pharmacist or doctor about pfizer's rsv vaccine, abrysvo. visit these retailers or find other retailers near you at abrysvo.com. [deep breath] i'm adding downy unstopables to my wash. now i'll be smelling fresh all day long. [sniff] still fresh. ♪♪

get 6x longer-lasting freshness, plus odor protection. try for under $5! choosing a treatment for your chronic migraine - plus odor protection. 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting 4 hours or more - can be overwhelming. so, ask your doctor about botox®. botox® prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine before they even start. it's the #1 prescribed branded chronic migraine treatment. so far, more than 5 million botox® treatments have been given to over eight hundred and fifty thousand chronic migraine patients. effects of botox® may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. alert your doctor right away, as difficulty swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue, and headache. don't receive botox® if there's a skin infection. tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions and medications, including botulinum toxins, as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. in a survey, 92% of current users said they wish they'd talked to their doctor and started botox® sooner.

so, ask your doctor if botox® is right for you. learn how abbvie could help you save on botox®. can neuriva support your brain health? mary, janet, hey!! (thinking: eddie, no frasier, frank... frank?) fred! how are you?! fred... fuel up to 7 brain health indicators, including your memory. join the neuriva brain health challenge. are you still struggling with your bra? it's time for you to try knix. makers of the world's comfiest wireless bras. for revolutionary support without underwires, and sizes up to a g-cup, find your new favorite bra today at knix.com ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back to our special coverage of the iowa caucuses, that republican iowa caucuses, where nbc news has projected that donald trump would be the winner at the end of the night. right now, he stands at 52.6%, which of course would be a historic margin. fighting out for second place are ron desantis and nikki haley who are quite close to one another. let's bring in former obama campaign manager david blough, and jennifer palmieri, former

white house communications director and senior adviser to hillary clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. jen is now co-host of the msnbc podcast, how to win in 2024. david and jen, really happy to have both of you here. we're gonna ask you to do something slightly weird, which is that we would like to hear advice from both of you for ron desantis and nikki haley, battling it out for second place tonight in iowa, looking ahead at a bleak but potentially feasible future. what should each of those campaigns be looking to do after iowa? >> starting with mayor david -- jen, let's start with you. >> okay, i think that, you know, i think that haley has the most on the line here because she is the one has the most potential. david and i have been together all night, talking about this all night. desantis doesn't have a lot to go. i think she is in a tough fight right now for second place. she should get out very soon to

a public event in iowa right now, and say amazing night, iowa. we came from behind. we did so well. it's so great. and then, get herself on the plane to new hampshire, and be poised to make the most of that momentum and, you know, you need that footage. you need that footage tonight of her being enthusiastic with a lot of supporters. we have seen that footage first, even if she doesn't say i came in second, it kind of marks you, like it gets cemented in people's brains. and then, she needs to figure out how between monday night and wednesday morning, she has built on that momentum and has, like, a really great runway in new hampshire. because if you don't figure out in the first 36 hours after iowa, how do you make it seem like you have a lot of momentum in new hampshire, you're gonna die there. >> wow, david plouffe, any thoughts for either nikki haley or desantis in terms of how they move ahead after what will be either a distant second place finish or a distant third

place finish? >> rachel, you can always be surprised in politics. but i think desantis has real surprise us tonight. i mean, this was his only hope that he was gonna end up being beat by 30 points. if you look down, he's got nothing going on in new hampshire, partly if you can do any better than south carolina. he may stay in. he's kind of a ghost roaming in the country. i think for haley, i agree with jen. she has to win new hampshire or her path is over. if she wins new hampshire, then they need to think through, and they're probably gonna lose her home state of south carolina which will not be a lot of fun to donald trump. but then, you get into super tuesday, and there's gonna be some states where trump is gonna be a huge favor. but there's also gonna be states where haley could potentially get 50%. i agree with jen, tactically, she needs to get to new hampshire asap, and close it really well over the last eight days. she also has to refresh her message a bit. i think i would say, listen, donald trump won, congratulations to the former president. but half of the voters in a very conservative state like

iowa one different amani. why is that? because this is a guy that lost to joe biden, feeble, make, horrible joe biden. and you think is gonna be able to beat him again? i think she needs to tap into that. and go for it here because her candidacy basically either is on, you know, small, but at least existing paths to somehow be the nominee, or it's gonna be over. i think that's where we are. my guess is that desantis will stay and say i came in second, i'm gonna stay in, and i can be the alternative. i just don't see there's any opening. at the end of the day, this comes down to the acquisition of votes. you have to have a theory with how you're gonna eventually get over 50% of the vote against donald trump. and i think that desantis's plan was to win tonight. i look back to us in 2008, barack obama, had he lost iowa, he would have been just a mere footnote in american political history. we put all of our chips on that as desantis campaign. that doesn't work out, you bust. but for haley, it's to win new hampshire and then figure out

what's my super tuesday strategy so that i can withstand a likely loss in my home state of south carolina to donald trump. >> david, it's chris hayes. can i ask you another question, and jen i love to hear your way on this too. i don't want to be overly premature here but you said, your mind, desantis is effectively now a walking ghost after tonight's performance. if there is one thing that he did wrong, i mean, there was a period, a point when he was bowling head to head or even up. there was a ton of money, a ton of enthusiasm, practically after the midterms when the republican party disappointed across the nation, with trump backed candidates doing poorly, and desantis doing very well, cruising the reelection. what did they screw up? >> well, you know, chris, to become the nominee of a party, you actually have to be a decent candidate. so, what they screwed up, he was a terrible candidate. i mean, what we have learned historically is that, you know, he is the governor of florida. you think that's a big state. the political graveyard is

littered with people who look like on paper, they would be strong presidential candidates, but having gone through this, i mean, this is basically like a searing exam of every home. and very few people come out on the other side. and he was diminished by this. and so, i think at the end of the day, yes, he started off strong. clearly, trump's indictments helped him. but desantis never could basically occupy that stage. and he was just not a strong performer. and at the end of the day, nikki haley, if she wins new hampshire, which is a big if, but if she does, trump -- just gonna be under a really, really brutal spotlight. and that will be her test. but i think, strategically, chris, i think it was the right decision to go all in iowa. i don't think there was another strategy out there. you know, historically, that has worked for a few candidates. it has worked for most. >> jen, can i ask the timing question? i agree with david, right? ultimately, you have to be a

good candidate, and if you are not a good candidate, this is what you get. and he was not a good candidate. maybe it's another iteration of this. but there was a question of, like, striking while the iron is hot. there's been these three moments in trump's political life since, you know, 2015. there was after the access hollywood tape. it did not look like he was teetering for the -- there was after january 6th and there was right after the midterms. there's that basically one month. and at no point did anyone do they think necessary in the moment to kind of end his political career. >> here's what you could have done in iowa, you know, ron desantis could have gone there and say, look, iowa in 2016, you had questions about donald trump. you didn't select him. and you know what? maybe in the end, he was the right person for 2016. but you are right tough questions. this job in this state is to fair it out, who the best person to lead this country is. and you are all gonna do that this time. we are gonna do that together. we're gonna figure that out

together. but, like, you have always have known that he was not the right person, not the right leader. and if you could have built -- it would take the courage of convictions to say, hey, understand that 40% of the party does not support donald trump, right? even today, the polling shows that 60% to, 40% don't. and i do think, you know, there's a chance that trump is still vulnerable here because 50% of iowans aren't gonna vote for him, 40% of republicans in the country don't support him. it is built on the house of cards and his strategy is built on lies. and, you know, if nikki haley is willing to speak really frankly in the next eight days in new hampshire, and she wins over there, and she doesn't get scared, but feels empowered, and then continues to make that argument that, you know, call him out on his lies, and republicans are reacting to that, trump may still end up as the nominee. but he's gonna get, you know, he's gonna be weaker nominee. you know, for republicans, i

think it's so valuable when republicans call him out on lies, that makes a big difference. -- >> i was just gonna jump in, real quick. it is ari here. a comment and a question. the comment, it almost sounds like you are suggesting that the haley campaign should find another website, trump lies, in addition to the desantis lies. and i don't know what that you are all will be -- >> maybe act like he is the front runner. >> and that is the question, which i think both of you are saying, to do this effectively, you have to make a strong broad case against the former president and apparent front-runner who, of course, is one in iowa. and that seems also straightforward because in 16, a relatively unpopular candidate, i'm referring to how desantis looked on paper, ted cruz was beloved by republicans, independents, democrats, or humans. but ted cruz powered his way to stop mcdonald trump's momentum,

one over ten states, and it was very harshly critical. i'm curious why that precedent or lessen, jennifer, has not resonated more. or do you think it's more complex than that because now that he's the former president, there's a dance to be done with a soft supporters? >> i think you can't get over 50 without some trump supporters, right? so, i think people, i don't think these people are stupid. ron desantis's team is not stupid. nikki haley's team is not stupid. there is smart people running their teams. i think they're banking on trump collapsing in some ways because of convictions, or something else. but both nikki haley and ron desantis, more so desantis than her have fed into the notion that if the convictions do happen, they're not gonna be legitimate because they don't accept the indictments as legitimate. so, they are just in the circular, you know, ecosystem where they can bust out, you know, not willing to bust out of it to try to really take him on. but one person who did, of

course, chris christie, he comes out of this race, you know, probably more respected in the country, but lower rating in the republican party than he's ever had. >> jenna palmieri, senior adviser for the hillary clinton 2016 presidential campaign, david plouffe, campaign manager for president obama, really, really good to have you both here. we will forward all of your advice to the haley and desantis campaigns. i'm sure they will definitely take it. we're gonna take a quick break right now. we're gonna come back and put some numbers and some of the things that we have been talking about, namely, what's happening in terms of the race for second place. we have just had a big new chunk of vote come in, 50% of the vote is in in iowa right now. we will talk about what that means in terms of that type choice between ron desantis and nikki haley. we will also talk about that next step, that path, and what it looks like in new hampshire, both of our campaign experts, they're talking about how it may be a necessary for nikki haley to win or get close to winning in new hampshire. is that possible?

is that possible? we will talk about, when we come back. stay with us. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ we're still going for that nice catch. we're still going for that sweet shot. and with higher stroke risk from afib not caused by a heart valve problem, we're going for a better treatment than warfarin. eliquis. eliquis reduces stroke risk. and has less major bleeding. over 97% of eliquis patients did not experience a stroke. don't stop taking eliquis without talking to your doctor as this may increase your risk of stroke. eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. don't take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. while taking, you may bruise more easily or take longer for bleeding to stop. get help right away for unexpected bleeding, or unusual bruising. it may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. the number one cardiologist-prescribed blood thinner. we're going for it.

ask your doctor about eliquis. you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? did we peak your interest? you can get two unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. there has been a projection

this evening for the winner of the iowa republican caucuses, the question of who has got to second is a matter of ongoing observation, speculation, and worry for the two campaigns. ron desantis and nikki haley battling it out. steve kornacki over at the big board for us. we've now got more than 60% of the vote in state one. are we getting close to a clear picture of these couldn't get second? >> you see desantis now is almost two full points, and about 1400 votes ahead of nikki haley. our decision desk gives the actual characterization of one leading or the other and they've done that yet, but i could show you a couple of the counties where we've got a bit more clarity here. starting in dallas county, almost all the vote is in now. again, big suburban county

right outside des moines here. this was, easy hailie has got a very similar coalition to marco rubio for eight years ago. marco rubio won this county for eight years ago, you can see there is all right here. nikki haley had a bit of a disappointment to her. not only that she's not a little bit closer to trump here, these are counties that she would ideally like to have a shot to, win but also the margin she's getting over ron desantis here, this becomes really important to her in terms of that question. if you're trying to get to second place of this demographically is a county where she should be able to get to second place over desantis and she is, but the margin there is 88 votes at the moment. there aren't too many votes less, she probably wanted bigger pattern than that. this is a big county in terms of population here and certainly in terms of her demographic. we've got more than two thirds now in the biggest county in the state. again, this is a mark of rubio county from 2016. this is poll county where des moines, is the city itself, but a lot of suburban areas in the county. more vote to come, in but

hailie is not even running in second here. it is close, a difference of 22 votes, but again this is a county where she wants some had over desantis. meanwhile, if you start looking at through -- worth county was about one to pick. there eastside with desantis, there but you see smaller counties, this is a good example here haley is not even registering. this is a small number of votes, but this was ted cruz's county, in 2016. we're seeing a lot of these rural areas here where desantis is outpacing -- we getting more clarity in the northwest part of the state which we've been talking about. we've been stuck on level totals in the key part of the county. we've got a lot now in sue county, remember, desantis had actually taken the lead here. trump has now gotten the lead into county with nearly 60% of the vote and the significance is deeply, deeply evangelical. trump's worth county in all of iowa in 2016. at this point this is a gain of about 40 points for him relative to his 2016 showing. we're still sitting at the same

number in line county, demographically a very similar county tissue county. you add it all together, it is certainly a race here for second place. , now you can see that it is a 1332 votes separating desantis and haley. it certainly is a race for second place, we get love it more without favor and desantis. but desantis has now consistently been running about a point, appointed, have two points ahead of haley. and you see, i think in that des moines area, in particular, he probably would've liked design a bit better there. >> steve, in the real politics of this, as you have, i, think rightfully pointed out, the distance between the first place projected winner and the people who are fighting it out for second place is a vast. so, in terms of what this means going ahead, really, it is an overwhelming win by donald trump. that said, if ron desantis and nikki haley are looking at the existential questions of their campaigns and whether or not there is a reason for them to carry on, the next question is it going to be new hampshire. i know that we have not results

from new hampshire, new hampshire hasn't happened yet, but if you look at the polls in new hampshire, it is nikki haley actually have a chance of winning their, of not just competing for second but potentially be competing for first? >> yes. it is the state donald trump is in the most danger of losing. i'm going to make a really dated reference, here but we talked about it earlier if you're watching and i think it's relevant to this discussion of what comes next. i said the dynamics of this republican race in iowa most closely resembled the george w. bush and john mccain race from back in 2000. and it starts here in iowa because, in 2000, if you remember john mccain only did a halfhearted effort in iowa. he spent some time in the state, but he was really camped out in new hampshire. as he is running far behind george w. bush in iowa was no expectation of beating him he was spending money and time in new hampshire and pulling even before iowa, close to bush in new hampshire. meanwhile, in iowa, the dissenters of 2000 was steve

forbes. he camped out in the state, he made a do or die effort in iowa, he got second placed bush in his campaign was done. so, it was bush coming out winning iowa and then it was a candidate who is pulling strong in new hampshire who is not much of a factor in iowa. john mccain, who went to new hampshire. john mccain upset, famously, by a crushing margin, george w. bush in new hampshire. if you take a look this is the polling, the average polling in new hampshire right now. look at that, trump 40, three halle 30. now, why does haley have a trump -- chance to win here late john mccain did? it's the exact same model. john mccain appealed to independent voters in new hampshire. he won then by a crushing majority over george w. bush in 2000. every one of the new polls that come out in new hampshire, they don't have haley ahead of trump overall, yet but they have haley winning within dependent voters. and we just showed in iowa how strong she has with independent voters. the key is independent voters play a much bigger role in the

new hampshire primary than they do in virtually any other state. we can fill some of this and right now from what we have learned from iowa. the comparison of the demographics with easter three states. iowa now 54% evangelical tonight, 16% independent, 10% moderate. that is the electorate that has haley running 30 points behind donald trump. this is what the electorate looked like in 2016. 25% evangelical, a much more secular republican electorate. look at the number of independents who took republican ballots, 42% of the republican electorate. 27% moderate. so these are the ingredients, these are the perfect ingredients for nikki haley here compared to iowa. so, that is why she is close in the state by the wild card is those independents. there is a writing effort for joe, biden but i expect most independents are going to choose to participate in the republican primary. so that 42% number,, remember there was a big race in 2016 on the democratic side. i suspect that 42% number may go up.

the higher it goes up, the better elites chances are in new hampshire. as you say, that would then go down to south carolina, that would be her home state. you see the demographics in south carolina,, again they look very different. a very evangelical. far fewer independents taking part, fewer moderates in the race. again, if you think back to 2000 and john mccain, what tripped up john mccain? it was that he won new hampshire and he became a political sensation, it was the story in american politics for three weeks. bush versus mccain, because mccain pulled it off. what stopped mccain was the fact, it was the way he won new hampshire. he won new hampshire on the strength of an independent voters. the exit polls show that bush actually won registered republicans, mccain won independents. so they went down to south carolina and bush made it a loyalty test to republicans and said my opponent is winning the votes of non republicans. he made -- -leaning independents, democrats, winning the votes of people who want to cause mischief in our primary. the media, the liberal media,

our enemy, is cheering him on. are you with them or are you with me, a good republican? and south carolina went for bush by double digits and then it became a pattern. mccain stated it for another week or two and in state after state, where independents and democrats were allowed to devote, mccain one huge among the group. but among republicans, bush started when i 40, 50, 60 points over mccain. and then bush shut down again. it's a long way of saying that if halle wins new hampshire, a trump's position to make the same loyalty argument that george w. bush made all those years ago. it wouldn't be so much loyalty to the republican party as loyalty to trump, but trump is extremely well liked among republican voters. we have seen this time and time again. who are the least popular republicans to run the cycle? they were chris christie, mike pence, and isa hutchinson. when you are defined as the candidate of trump's critics, trump's opponents, when you yourself issue criticisms of donald trump, republican voters who like donald trump, that is

the vast majority of republican voters, turn on. you that is the picture from nikki haley. i think she could win new hampshire, the demographic mix is perfect for her but if she does so it would be with independent voters. they would be the ones making the difference. i think republican voters, history tells, us would be very suspicious of a candidate like that. if you get beyond south carolina, again, if she loses her home state is a tough one to explain. but when you get beyond that, the playing field shifts and you get states that are not officially winner-take-all staked in terms of delegates but there were states where the winner could take all of the delegates, or the vast majority of them. i'll give you some examples. march 5th on super tuesday, the biggest date devote is going to be california. 169 delegates in california. the republicans, at behest of the trump campaign, it changed the rules. they said if you get 50% plus one in california get all 169 delegates. new poll, today, cal berkeley, donald trump in california, 66% of the vote in california.

he would sweep all 169 if you got anything approaching that. on march 5th year look at some of the other states, alabama, 50 delegates. there would be an opportunity for trump to sweep all 50 of those delegates. you've got tennessee voting that day, 58 delegates. you've got oklahoma, 43. trump could take the lion's share of those states, along with north carolina. 70, for texas, 161. they have provisions in the law of the states where, if you are winning congressional districts and getting 50% of the congressional you get all the delegates in the congressional district. if you get 50% statewide you get all the statewide delegates. the opportunity for trump on march 5th if he's putting up numbers and registering support with republicans the way he is tonight and the way is in these polls, the opportunity is there for him to take a gigantic delegate lead in this race. the delegates rule on the republican side are not at all like the democratic side where you just get 15% and you get a big chunk of every states delegates. it is hard to pull away in a democratic primary.

in a republican primary, it is easy. >> by the way, what steve is saying is so important in that the each vangelis you cannot over emphasize it enough. i was googling from pr are the numbers. evangelical numbers are 14.5% of the united states and they are 28% of all voters. but, of white evangelical voters, i should say, 76% voted for donald trump in 2020. mainline protestant attended split and then black evangelicals tend to go very heavily for democrats. the challenge for the kaleigh is that, even if she does well and wins a miraculous race in new hampshire, everywhere else that she has to win is full of white evangelical voters. they are overrepresented. >> with that independent voter in new hampshire there is no crossover with that voter and evangelical voter who just voted in iowa saying i am anti-immigrant and donald trump is the chosen one.

they are never going to pick nikki haley. i'm not even saying that to be sassy, we're hearing it over and over. >> or they're overrepresented north carolina, georgia, arizona, wisconsin. that's not to say the entire south. the challenge of nikki haley is that she could be a one hit wonder in new hampshire and she will get a lot of media attention, but in the end, we've literally been writing certainly knows to each other, the problem she is going to have, how are much her donors may dream of her being the new george w. bush and somehow recreating the george w. bush electorate, the actual electorate, the real electorate in the republican party, is heavily made up of white evangelical voters for whom it is a religious test that they support donald trump. i don't know how to get past that even if she wins. >> -- >> very interesting about those voters tonight, i don't think we could have learned this without the dobbs decision because during the roe v. wade years the abortion politics were locked in place. so, there were -- most republican candidates were

running on no exceptions, banning all abortions. john mccain when you ran for president didn't understand the language of that saw when he was asked the first time he ran for president what about if your daughter was pregnant, would you absolutely forbidden abortion? he said, well, we would have a family meeting about that. he had to reverse himself within 24 hours because the answer had to be absolutely no abortion. it was all theoretical, though. because abortion was legal throughout the country because of roe v. wade. now we have tonight these voters who are as conservative on abortion as you get in the united states of america, they rank for us the importance of these issues in their voting. abortion, 12%. tied with foreign policy. immigration is a triple that. then, what they did with their vote, was vote for the guy who, in republican terms, is very

weak on abortion. mike pence thought that he had donald trump cornered when donald trump opposed desantis's six-week ban in florida. desantis thought he had him cornered, to. trump said, to these voters accepted, a lot of people don't, know most people don't know they're pregnant within six weeks. trump says that is no good. then, what is trump's position? he says that i will negotiate a period of time that everyone will agree on. well, the supreme court negotiated a period of time cold roe v. wade. he pretends that he will come in and negotiate there's a magic period. he is saying that to voters who want the period to be zero and they still vote for him. so, what those voters said tonight is, we don't mean it. we, the voters of iowa, we don't really mean, in our voting, what we say publicly about the absolutism of our

abortion position. we could never have known that without this collapse of the roe v. wade decision. >> because it does a political faction. there is a name on it that sounds theological, but what it is, what it has evolved to in the trump era, it's a political faction that is anti-democratic, pro trump as a strongman leader, and calls it christian nationalism regardless of any length and a theological tradition whatsoever, and regardless as to whether they have any link to any church. i am not a catholic, i am not a jew, and i am right and willing to get rid of democracy. it is what evangelical means in real political fight right now. >> on a personal note, working in the senate in the roe v. wade years, i did not believe a single one of the republican senators working in that building with me actually believed what they said about abortion. i have a reason to not believe that a single one meant it, but i did have reason to believe that evangelical christians in

iowa meant it. it turns out, they didn't. >> let me interject, i just have to get to business just for a second. at this point in the evening the projected winner of the iowa caucuses has just started giving his victory speech. we will keep an eye on that as it happens, we will let you know if there is any news made in that speech, anything noteworthy, substances of and important. the reason why i am saying this is, of course, there is a reason that we and other news organizations have generally stopped giving an unfiltered, live platform by former president trump. it's not out of spite, not a decision that we relish, it is a decision that we regularly revisit and, honestly, honestly, it is not an easy decision. but there is a cost to us, as a news organization, of knowingly broadcasting untrue thing. it is a fundamental truth of our business and who we are. his remarks, tonight, will not air here live.

we will monitor them and let you know about any news that he makes. >> i believe that is why j.b. -- is not afraid or answering choice got questions. as much was that the problem for the white house and young voters, what they have on the other side? abortion. and an overwhelming amount of young people are going to get up and go and vote and care about women's right to choose. so, as evangelicals have become super powers on the right, on the left, or the center of the country, millions of people will vote in support of a woman's right to choose and the white house is calculating that is going to be a bigger issue to help them. so they are tangled in this gaza issue that they don't want to dig deep in and they're not as afraid of it as they think they should be. >> i think they're not as afraid of it, i think they're completely ignoring it. -- >> it's thorny. >> it's thorny, it's difficult. but you know what, michigan is the state you need. and you kind of need the arab

american vote there, so they're taking a lot of risks. >> the biggest thing with the biden campaign is waiting for on that issue is what is the trump position? and he is not said a word about it because he doesn't have to, because he's not president. when you get to september there will be a very clear distinction between donald trump and joe biden on those issues and it should be cleared most people that, by that time, that there is nothing donald trump would not do to flatten gaza as much as any one in the israeli government, the most extreme factions of the israeli government might want to flatten it. and there wouldn't be a moment when donald trump ever says to netanyahu or anyone else in the israeli government that they should use -- strength. and once that contrast is there the biden policy, which i hate, versus the trump policy which is worse, that is the kind of vote that people have had in this country many times. >> to that point, i think it

opens up into a larger, one which is that the degree to which this sort of lack of an actual campaign here. because it really hasn't, he's been hanging out in the courtroom. and then you get desantis and haley going at each other, but no one's going out of trump. to your point, what -- the u.s. right now is backing a war in the middle east, right? with our ally israel, which is enormously controversial in the world. it splits the democratic coalition, it's an incredibly important piece of american foreign policy. what's leading contender for the republican party think about it? no one knows. that is true of 1 million different things. i know it feels quite to talk about the issues and all of this stuff, and we jettison that in the trump era because he is this bizarre creature in this way, but it least ron desantis and nikki haley did answer some questions about substances of stuff the other night in the debate. and the degree to which a lot of the conventions of campaigns

and campaign reporting a do not like and have been a critic of for a long time, but the degree to which he has luz del faro from the shackles of that entirely means that there is no moment on the trail where some reporter or a person gets up in a town hall and literally says what would you be doing in gaza? >> it's because the basis of his candidacy is that he is running against politics. he's running against politicians. he's running against policy. he's running against the whole idea that a congress does a thing in a country that has a strongman leader. he is running for a situation which he is the leader, there is no government, there is not a policy process because it is just what he feels like on a day. and that is the form of government that he's offering and i think what is most enthusiastic supporters like about him. this is special coverage of tonight's iowa republican caucuses. right now it is 11 pm on the east coast, it is a ten pm in iowa. here's where things stand right now. and d.c. news is projecting

that donald trump will be the winner of the iowa caucuses. it's called a decision desk was able to make pretty early in the night based on entrance polls and early results. as we continue to get results in from precincts across iowa, the only question now is how big trump's margin of victory will ultimately be. a secondary question is who is going to take second place? nbc news is not yet projecting whether ron desantis or nikki haley will be the second place finisher, how that race shakes out could have major implications for each of their campaigns and, therefore, for how the rest of the republican contest will unfold. nbc news is also rejected, interestingly, that turnout was lower than expected. lower than expected for tonight's caucuses. now, that may have, in large part, been due to the frigid temperatures in iowa. the coldest iowa caucus day ever. it may be because the political factors, it may be some combination, we don't know. but the projected turnout tonight it's about 130,000. that is down from more than

185,000 in 2016, in the republican caucuses. now we assume that nikki haley will head straight for new hampshire where the nukes votes will be cast next week. that is the state in which she is polling, strongest polls show her definitely within striking distance of donald trump. ron desantis has said that he plans to head not to new hampshire next, even though that is the next contest, he is planning to head straight to south carolina. before, then heading back to new hampshire to go to a debate later on this week. donald trump is headed in a day after as, well but first the plans to make his own very trumpian stop. he has to stop, lay doesn't have to, he's choosing to stop in new york to attend one of his many trials. this, won a trial beginning tomorrow to determine how much money he has to pay it to writer e. jean carroll for sexually assaulting and defaming her. this is a trial as to -- not as to whether or not a sexual assault happened, but how much he has to pay her in

damages because of it. and that's what he's going to do. he doesn't have to do that, but it's what he's going to do before he heads on to new hampshire because that is where he thinks the political punch is for him. in case you needed any further reminder that this is an election year like no other. >> the thing about it is, we are talking about these heavily religious voters. it is a kind of one of the stunning facts of donald trump's political career that no amount of electrocution of the sexual assault has impacted negatively is spread for office in any way. after the access hollywood tape will never forget being in ohio and seeing women where that t-shirt that said trump can grab my -- seeing women at the convention by and put on that shirt. you, know these were women who consider themselves to be good christians who embraced donald

trump. they did not reject at all the idea that he would start by saying i didn't do that and then, i might have done, that and then locker room talk, and then so what, i did it, what's wrong with it? the fact that he is now facing not the question of whether or not he sexually abused e. jean carroll, but just how much money he has to pay her because he lied about it. this will have no impact whatsoever, anymore than him stealing classified documents or trying to overturn an election and stage two, none of it matters. >> with his base. >> with his voters. >> but not necessarily the whole country. >> and with republicans writ large. sorry, does it matter that mitch mcconnell? apparently not. does the magic and youth republicans who think behind the scenes this despise him? we saw doug burgum, who said he wouldn't do business with donald, trump turned around and endorse him ahead of the iowa caucuses. they have all fallen in line, they've all capitulated, they are all taking a knee. >> everything you said is right about that proportion and then there is the future we don't know, right? we don't know, as we discussed earlier, independents in the

general election. even if one untenable can voters -- i've been very restrained tonight, i've gone as far as i can, but most -- most deft did say -- >> here we go. yes? >> the straw that broke the camel's back was the secret, 1 million other straws underneath it. we just don't know if and when the back will break. there are all these straws, there are so many convicted trump aides i don't believe, check me if i'm wrong, rachel, we have mentioned any of them tonight? he is going into this campaign, yes, he won iowa tonight, leaving a trail of convicted aides, lawyers, indicted aides, and a bunch of convicted trump fans. so, there is a part of the country that wants to lie about that were called a false flag or fox news got in no trouble to platform those lies repeatedly and they have confused a lot of people about that. then there is all the

-- one of the big questions whether his offense in prison. now, i can tell you if that's gonna happen or not but that's a lot of straws that we have not yet seen weighed by november. >> -- >> more hip-hop? >> what used to be the politics these two parties. one thing that is consistent in republicanism through tonight, when we're talking about here, is republicans do not behaviors absolutists. they will go with the nominee who represents most of what they think, or is closest to what they think, and they don't complain about that. you cannot look back at any republican presidential campaign and find something comparable to the democratic nominee being complained about because he is not strong enough on climate or she is not strong enough on international trade,

the way we want her to be. this is a constant in democratic presidential politics. biden's big challenge right now is gaza, as joyce pointed out, he has challenges with people who say is not doing enough on climate, he has challenges -- there are some people who have had all of their student loans forgiven who think he is great and they know that he did it, and those others who don't have all those student loans forgiven and they're going what about money -- that doesn't exist on the republican side of politics. it doesn't matter how you vary off of an absolutist position so long as you are close enough to it. they are all for tax cuts, all for supporting guns, and they are all anti-abortion. what trump has just identified, is it turns out, there's flexibility there, too. so this is a unique challenge on the democratic side. it is only the democratic nominee who is challenged and it is always the democratic nominee. it's not just joe biden, it is every one of them.

hillary clinton had real problems because she said the trans-pacific partnership, which actually was the best negotiated trade agreement in american history, she said it was the gold standard of trade agreements and she had back off and become opposed to it in order to hold that coalition together. nothing like that ever happens on the republican side. >> that is because, jamal bowie was on my show this week making this a similar point about, there is policy trading happening in the democratic coalition. there it are concrete things that you want from government, concrete policies. voting no on tpp, or student loan forgiveness, or an end to the war in gaza. these -- and the republican party has increasingly operated outside of actual, tangible policy trading. there were a few funny moments where haley, i saw her in, iowa trying to go at trump on like ethanol and fuel standards. i'm thinking that, 12 years ago,

maybe works. but they don't care. you think you're going to win on fuel stuff? what is happening here is operating at such a level detached from the worst trading. >> so is saying you're welcome to the farmers that he delivered billions of dollars to in aid from a trade war that he is created, but the challenge that you're talking about, that joe biden is it going to face, when it comes to policy he will be able to rise to. it he is not even started campaigning yet and we do have an improving economy. there's a very good chance that rates are going to get cut. he passed a massive infrastructure law. he did something on student loans. and he is deeply involved in two wars. so, when you talk about the challenge, he will be able to say, on a policy front, i just delivered. what will no labels say then while they're out there going, he's so far to the left and trump is so far to the, right we need something in the middle? joe biden has got his report card to show. >> bernie sanders actually

personifies this challenge in democratic presidential politics. april 4th of pfizer to integrate way because there is no one to the left of bernie sanders historically in the senate and the house, on virtually every subject. certainly there is no one on his left as a presidential candidate. but, in the, and whether that is the endorsement of democratic nominee, bernie sanders is always there. in the united states senate egos in wanting a green new deal, he wants all of, this but in the end here is the thing. it is the thing we can get joe manchin, on this is the best we can do. bernie sanders a vote for it every single time. which is to say that is the rational compromise process that the democratic party requires in order to progress on anything. and bernie sanders is also old enough to know and remember, to have lived through the lessons that we were living with right now on this gaza issue is that

it is indescribable how alienated the potential democratic electorate was from hubert humphrey, the democratic nominee in 1968, presumed to continue lyndon johnson's policy, which was already a policy aimed at trying to find peace. running against richard nixon, and there was a massive a section of the electorate that bernie sanders, he certainly knew everyone who was, who said there's no difference. there is no difference between hubert humphrey and richard nixon. i heard that from -- i was in high school, i kept hearing that. i believe that. there is no difference. it turns out there was a massive difference. one of them was a criminal and one of them was an honorable person who is dragged into a policy that he didn't like i was trying to work his way out of. so, bernie sanders knows that lesson of the voters who did not show up for hubert humphrey, by the, way nixon won by less than 1% of the vote, the voters

who didn't show up for hubert humphrey because of vietnam gave it to richard nixon. >> here's the challenge of the biden white house has, it's just that. is he lbj in 1968? to the point that everyone here is making, the democrats are the polyglot party. >> lbj in 1968 was a wild bad man who is in the white house, personally picking bombing targets in vietnam. a stark, raving mad man. >> however, for these young voters, joe biden is the guy in the white house bypassing congress to continue descend bombs that are being used on gaza. i'm telling you anecdotal evidence from the young people in my life. >> but there is nothing going on in the biden white house that is anything -- >> i totally agree, but the issue that the biden white house has is that the republican party is a somewhat moderate, not completely model

racial, but there are ideologically flexible enough to say that all we want is our guy to win. that's all we really care about is that we want power and will elect anyone. it will substitute a different god for donald trump if another one came along. the used warship george w. bush, and they worshipped ronald reagan, it doesn't matter. the democrats have just hear the ship that has got to so many different -- in it. and they are trying to meet what you're talking about, which is the point. autocracy with politics. and the big question that we're going to have answered in november is whether politics and cobbling together political -- that are just brits and have different ailing voices that are demographically converse, if you can cobble together those politics and pleasing of those people with real demands and real economic, real voters of economic anxiety are young voters who can't afford their lives. can you cobbled gather that coalition against a party that will vote in lock step, even

for the guy who tells them they should die in order to vote? >> standing up for democracy, showing what democracy can do in all of its complications. we actually need to go back to steve for a second here because we have got some new numbers here. we do need to talk about what's happening in iowa. steve? >> we're almost all the way in and you can see that race for second place, the margin here is closing in on 2400 votes for desantis over haley. again, desantis in strong position here when it comes to second place. not in a strong position relative to donald trump. one thing we are keeping an eye on too, you can see a common color as you look across these 99 counties. there is one county, jefferson county, but the other 98 counties, donald trump leads 98 of the 98 counties right now. there appears to be only two that he may end up falling short in. he is leading in both counties, i'll show you them. johnson county, here, iowa city, university of iowa.

nikki haley, you can see, 55 votes behind him with a little bit more to come from johnson county. she could theoretically pass him here as probably the best opportunity for a candidate to beat trump in a county that's left on the board. the other one would be story county, again, another college county, iowa state university here. but a little bit more distance here between trump and haley. desantis didn't do too poorly here, relatively speaking. those are really the only two counties where trump appears to be in nature. we talked about northwest iowa where desantis was leading in su county earlier. trump was taking control there, you look up at that county, almost all the voters, these are just atrocious counties for donald trump in 2016 and he's just powering through them tonight. ultimately, the reason why desantis seems to be ahead of haley here, again, we have talked about places like dallas county, haley is finishing second here, but she beat desantis only by 80 votes. she needed a bigger had than that there, you know, a place

like story county, she needed to be ahead of desantis buy more because when you expand to look at all 99 counties, there are a lot of small rural counties in iowa that individually are gonna get you a lot of votes, but collectively add up. and in the small rural counties, haley is really falling short. there are 23 counties on this board. i can show you 23 counties where nikki haley is running in the single digits tonight. and they are predominantly small rural counties. i just give you an example here. look at this, van buren county, trump dominating, haley getting 6% of the vote right here, 23 when she is in single digits. how many four desantis in single digits? there are four of 99, where he's in single digits. he's got better and those rural counties. and she needs those places where she is stronger. and here we are, nebraska, beautiful state -- here we are back in iowa with a

90% in. and again, desantis well positioned there for second place. trump, again, has set the record for the highest vote share in a republican caucus in iowa, 41% george w. bush in 2000, he's blown past that. he looks like he's gonna be finishing about 50% here very likely, an outright majority. we have never seen that in a republican race before. and then, in terms of the margin here, again, it was 12 points, 1988, the previous record. it looks like it will be something like 30 here tonight for trump. >> go ahead, chris. >> you know, there is 99 counties in iowa, and the full grassley, right? all the 99 counties, ron desantis did the full grassley, and tonight i think we have to coin the full desantis, which when you do a full grassley and you lose, every single count, i don't think anyone has ever done that. >> not only that. nobody spent more time in iowa then rhonda santas. and nobody spent less time than donald trump. because the famous story, about, you know, one of the biggest upsets in iowa republican

caucus history in iowa caucus history, in 1980 when reagan had a 30-point lead in december. and then lost the caucuses two george bush senior. it's really the birth of the bush dynasty, it was in those iowa caucuses 1980. and the reason why bush ended up catching reagan and winning by two points, it was just days before the caucuses. they had, a novelty of the times, a televised debate. and ronald reagan, the front-runner was crushing everyone in the polls said i'm skipping the debate. and all the candidates on stage said, he is insulting you, iowans, he's taking you for granted. and the iowan said, yes he is. and george w. bush, he launched the bush boom, made him vice president, his son's career, and everything. but reagan paid a price in 1984 skipping the debate. trump has skipped every single debate and we've only seen his support go up. >> i have something to add here. as you said, chris, ron desantis did do the full grassley of all 99 counties and apparently lose all 99

counties. another candidate did the full grassley twice, vivek ramaswamy went to all 99 counties -- [laughter] >> a double grassley? >> he did a double grassley in the campaign. and this is news, nbc news has just confirmed that vivek ramaswamy will be dropping out of the race likely this evening. >> wow! >> what! >> seriously, just to campaign for frame, it wasn't about winning anything. he can afford to keep hanging around and go to states -- >> i think he is locked up the podcast. i think his game is done. you can always invite him on to your show, whenever you feel like it. >> that is a tough one. >> you can set him to be your ring tone, wake you up in the morning -- joining us now from the trump victory party in des moines, where donald trump has finished his victory speech is nbc news correspondent vaughn hillyard. vaughn, how did it go? >> reporter: rachel, he spoke for about 20 minutes from this stage. and i will just read you a quote from one of his lines, quote, this is our third win,

but this is our biggest, talking about the big iowa caucuses. of course, donald trump lost the 2016 iowa caucuses to ted cruz. but in reality, donald trump has not tethered to that. and frankly, the first person he shouted out, if i may, from the stage in the first 60 seconds was kari lake, the senate candidate out of arizona. he then gave vivek ramaswamy a shout out, saying that, he congratulated him from going from zero to 8%. and then perhaps notably, without mentioning them, he referred to nikki haley and ron desantis, calling them very smart people, capable people. this is a campaign operation around donald trump that has been eager to wrap up this nomination. they have been vocal in that they believe they can get to the delegate threshold, meet that threshold come march 19th, in order to become of the presumptive nominee. and frankly, if i may, guys, this is donald trump -- i was listening to him in my left ear, and i was listening to you guys and my right ear. i heard the name but berman mention. it was up on stage. the only republican have

dropped out from this republican race, you know that presidential stage was doug burgum, and he endorsed trump. guess who gets on that stage tonight? doug burgum. tim scott, mike pence, they stayed on the sidelines. when we've had conversations about coalescing, and it's hard. i was here in iowa eight years ago, and i took an overnight flight to new hampshire. and it is hard to not feel like so much of what we lived through eight years ago is exactly what we are about to go through here in these days and weeks ahead. >> can i just ask you, you mentioned right off the bat that the first person who trump shouted out from the stage was kari lake, who is a failed republican senate candidate from arizona. did he shout her out because she's there? or what was going on there? >> reporter: yes, she's actually been a surrogate for him for a couple of days. i think everyone is having the contest, the superstars of the republican party today, perhaps

the most influential folks you can have by your side, people like kari lake, you know, i go back to one rally that i went to in south dakota, i believe, about two months ago. and i was asked, who do you want to be the vice presidential pick? and person after person, they named caralee. but marjorie taylor greene is also here. matt gaetz is here. ronny jackson is here. byron donalds, laurel bloom are, they're here. these are folks that in the modern day republican party, they are those folks that donald trump turned to in the closing days. i was about two hours north of des moines earlier today for a rally in which all of them were appearing together, and this is the cast that trump has had. i was just talking to kari lake onstage right before donald trump took the stage. and i asked for the question, to those who say that it's folks like trump and kari lake that have cost, you know, the republicans a general election, what would you tell them? she told me, they're all rigged elections. we all would have won. this is a message that they're gonna take with them to the

ballot box this upcoming november, guys. >> vaughn hillyard for us at the trump campaign headquarters, making it clear as it could possibly be that the trump movement, which now appears to be as ascendant as it's ever been in republican politics is 100% in on election denialism. i believe it's the brightest way to put it. at a democratic movement. ♪ ♪ ♪ there is an election alert on your screen right now because nbc news decision desk is now projecting that in addition to donald trump as the projected winner of iowa, the projected second place finisher in iowa's desantis. ron desantis projected to be the second place finisher in the iowa republican caucuses. nikki haley is projected to be the third place finisher in the iowa republican caucuses. you can see this, about 91% of the vote is in. you see it's a tight difference between desantis and haley. but a decision desk believes they have seen enough now to

project that that will be the numerical order of the finishers in iowa tonight. steve kornacki, looking at that call from the decision desk, and you give us a sense of what's behind it? obviously, looking at that map right now, it's not that helpful. every single county in the state appears to have been won by donald trump, but in the fight for second and third, it looks like ron desantis has prevail. >> again, for those reasons we've been talking about, i think what it essentially came down to, the smaller rural counties that desantis got more, relative to haley out of those then haley got relative to desantis in the suburban and urban counties. certainly, it was close. it was the most suspenseful race within the race that we've been watching tonight. but again, you just look at those suburban areas, haley did well. she wanted to do better, and she just, you know, we certainly -- the problem with a coalition she has, and i think this can be a problem for her,

if this campaign goes forward. it was certainly a new hampshire, and we will talk about what might await beyond. but the problem for her in these results when you get past new hampshire where independents are gonna be such a disproportionately large part of the electorate, you know, looking at the core of the republican party demographics and these days, in so many states that they're gonna vote, you are talking about rural areas, you are talking about ex urban areas, you are talking about voters on the lower end of the economic spectrum, you are talking about voters without college degrees, without postgraduate degrees. nikki haley in those areas of the state didn't just do that. she did awful. as i said, she is in the single digits in almost a quarter of the counties in the state. and when you have that kind of imbalance, you know, tonight, you fall just short of second place to desantis. again, when this race gets cooking, if it gets cooking past new hampshire, what will you do in a coalition like that in texas? what will you do with a coalition like that in tennessee, in north carolina,

in arkansas, and alabama, in states that are coming up on super tuesday that are potentially winner take all states. this is just a coalition. i talked earlier about the example, john mccain in 2000. he pushed that coalition as far in 2000 as it absolutely could get. but it broke for lack of support from court republicans. and frankly, for antagonism of core republicans for going and getting your support from sort of outside the party and from a very specific faction within the party. so, that's the challenge for haley coming out of here. the challenge for desantis, while he gets second place, who's gonna bounce back from a second place finish in iowa and go on to win a republican presidential nomination? in the past, ronald reagan, 1980. only lost iowa by two points and he was the overwhelming national front runner when he did. it bush senior, 1988, third place in iowa, but he got the nomination. but he was the national front-runner into polls when he lost iowa. the combination of losing, losing this big in, and already

being buried in the national polls, those finishing in iowa, coming from there to winning republican nomination, or even come close. >> two pieces of news to update you on. we mentioned that nbc news has confirmed that vivek ramaswamy will be dropping out of the race tonight. he has dropped out of the race tonight and he has endorsed donald trump for president. no surprise there. we also now have a new projection from the decision desk. it was very early on in the evening one of the decision desk projected that donald trump would be the winner in iowa. their decision desk is now projecting, nbc news now projects that donald trump's proportion of the vote in iowa will exceed 50%, which was a benchmark that his campaign was looking for. i think a lot of people thought he would do well, thought he wouldn't do so on that he would hit that benchmark. but he has done so. right now, we're gonna go live to iowa where we are hearing from the second place winner, florida governor ron desantis, who basically staked his entire

campaign on doing well in iowa. this is his chance to react to his second place showing here tonight. let's listen. >> -- you give this country a new birth of freedom. that's what they're gonna do. [applause] so, we have our marching orders. our marching orders are gonna preserve what george washington called the safety of liberty. the same fire that burned in philadelphia in 1776 when our founding fathers signed the declaration of independence, the same fire that burned the cemetery in our first republican presidency, abraham lincoln -- the same sacred fire of liberty that was on the beaches of normandy in 1944, where our brothers stormed the shores to free the world. the same sacred fire of liberty that was at the berlin wall in

1987, when ronald reagan stood there and said, this is an important job, tear down this wall. this is our responsibility to carry on this and preserve the sacred fire of liberty. don't run away from this responsibility. we welcome this responsibility. [applause] we thank you for your efforts. we thank you for your support. you helped us get a ticket, punch out of the hawkeye state. we have a lot of work to do. as the next president of the united states, i'm gonna get a job done for this country. i am not gonna -- [applause] i'm not gonna make any excuses and i guarantee you this. i will not let you down. thank you all! [applause] appreciate you! [applause] florida governor ron

desantis giving his remarks tonight in iowa after a second place finish, a distant second place finish, nearly 30 points behind the first place finish of donald trump. donald trump, again, nbc news decision desk was projecting that his proportion of the vote will exceed 50% at the end of the night. now, i believe that, control room, tell me if i'm wrong about this, i believe we are still expecting remarks sometimes soon from nikki haley. we are expecting her to speak in iowa as well. we will get you the nikki haley remarks when she gets those as well. but we have had the field shrink yet again tonight. vivek ramaswamy, he will never again grace our television screens as a presidential candidate. david plouffe, are you shocked with this endorsement, apparently, he went along with trump? >> yeah, we will see. his total number of votes must have been, 1000, 10,000. think about that, all that time,

going to all the counties twice, all the money, remarkable. >> yeah, but the podcast, the podcast -- oh, he does have a podcast. there is a podcast -- >> it aired in 2025 -- >> i mean, only better pirro has a more annoying voice. i guess if ben can do it, he can do it. >> i'll say that about him. i sometimes feel like i've totally lost my mind covering american politics and trump makes you feel that way all the time. there was one little thing i was holding on to, and it was a polling consistent, the more republicans saw. and i was like, okay, i'm lie -- [inaudible] [laughter] that's just me being crazy here. my impression of this, it's the same as the media and republican voters thank you. >> which was amazing, and i think i will miss about vivek ramaswamy, it's the way and the special, special way that nikki haley despised him. i feel like her red hot hatred of him, it was its own thing.

it was fun to watch. it was entertaining -- >> but this idea, you know, donald trump didn't even try. he didn't even show up for the debates. that's not true. he might not have been in iowa. he had a huge, well organized machine in the state of iowa. and he might not have participated in those debates, but in those, in 2024, with political tv, broadcast tv, streaming tv, every social media outlet, he almost doesn't need to. i feel like the trump campaign is gonna flex here, everyone just came to us no matter what. they were working hard. and while he goes to all these trials, why is he going there? because all our tv cameras are there. and while we're not as his rallies, we are, is using them -- he takes every media opportunity he can and there's a lot of them. >> it will be interesting to see what happens this week. there is at republican debate. i think we can assume that trump will not participate in it. we know that vivek ramaswamy will not be in it. it would presumably just be haley and desantis again if

both choose to participate. is they are the same percentage for each of them in participating heading to new hampshire? >> i think they are both beginning, if they haven't already, the presidential campaign of four years from now. i think they both know they are not getting this nomination. and that question is, how do i exit this campaign? how do i build up capital with these voters who will never again in their lives get a chance to vote for donald trump? this is their last time. there won't be another trump candidacy -- >> so much to say about that. [laughter] you can just stop it with another vote -- >> -- part of the game they have been playing with these voters because these are gonna be the voters who decide the next republican nomination years from now. >> but, i mean, the challenge for ron desantis, i could see nikki haley having a second life. she has been u.n. ambassador to the u.n.. she can say she's for trump, against trump, her position. but ron desantis torched his state for this. he blew up his state.

he put a six-week abortion ban in place. he ran republicans around tallahassee like his pets. and they are unhappy with him. you can't go back to florida. there is no goodwill in tallahassee for him because he forced republicans to take some really ugly votes and went to war against disney, against the cruise industry, and ruin the agriculture industry, and chase workers away. you could go on and on about the ways in which he's dismantled education through anti-lgbtq mania, which is not great for tourism, anti-blackness. like, all of the enemies that he has created, i'm not sure what he does between now and 2028 that could actually get him back on a path to run for president again, because what does he have to show for? he's gonna go back -- there are already people in tallahassee trying to undo some of the laws that he passed. and they realize -- >> in 2024, do you think there's gonna be a -- [inaudible] [laughter] >> it might be the last one.

>> raise your hand -- >> there is also just, you know, timing and -- you know this better than anyone, right? timing is everything in politics, particularly in presidential politics. this was the great question of barack obama, freshman senator, you know, sworn in 2005, convention speech in 2004. obviously, he can't turn around and run for president, like a year and a half or two years later in 2007. and he did. it turned up to be the right call. chris christie, you know, i think kind of missed the moment that he had. i think ron desantis was too late to get in the race. timing does matter. >> the one where you run in 2000, you come in second, you get the nomination the next time. that's a play that they've done many, many times. i >> think it's really interesting for haley, though. let's say she wins the new hampshire primary, a big if. but if she does, she has to decide, is that it? i am i gonna go into the night and try to win this thing? and if she tries to win this thing, she is actually gonna

turn off even more trump voters than today. that's gonna be fascinating to watch. >> speaking of timing, speaking of haley, former south carolina governor nikki haley has just started speaking in new hampshire. she's coming third in iowa. let's check out what she's got to say. >> i want to say to reena, josh, and mail-in, and so proud of you. [applause] the best job i will always have is being your mom. [applause] i want to thank my parents who were at home every day, reminded us how blessed we were to live in america. i want to thank my sweet brother who came out here and was caucusing for me. desert storm a veteran. and i want to thank my other siblings there. i want to thank michael's parents, who have been fantastic along the way as well. you can't do this without the strength of your family. i want to congratulate

president trump on his win tonight. we have had an amazing 11 months here at the hawkeye state. [applause] i came to iowa early and often. and i kept coming back. even though the cold weather is brutal -- [laughter] -- but the kindness of iowans will never be lost to me. you are faithful, patriotic, and hardworking americans. and i will forever be grateful for the time that we had. [applause] at one point in this campaign, there were 14 of us running. i was at 2% in the polls. but tonight, iowa did what iowa

always does so well. the pundits will analyze the results from every angle. we get that. but when you look at how we are doing, in new hampshire, in south carolina -- [applause] -- and beyond -- [applause] i can safely say tonight, iowa made this republican primary a two person race. [applause] tonight, tonight, i will be back in a great state of new hampshire. and the question before americans is now a very clear. do you want more of the same?

>> no! >> or do you want a new generation of conservative leadership? [applause] [crowd chanting] haley! haley, haley, haley! [crowd chanting] [applause] >> i have spoken a lot of hard truths to america. and here's another one. i voted for donald trump twice. i was proud to serve in his administration. but when i say more of the same, you know what i'm talking about. >> yes! >> it's both donald trump and joe biden. >> yeah!

>> they have more in common than you think. 70% of americans don't want another trump biden rematch! [applause] a majority disapprove of both of them. trump and biden are both about 80 years old. trump and biden both put our country trillions of dollars deeper in debt, and our kids will never forgive them for it. [applause] trump and biden both back a vision for our country's future because both are consumed by the past, by investigations, by vendettas, by grievances. america deserves better. [applause]

[applause] >> haley, haley, haley, haley, haley! [crowd chanting] >> we deserve a new direction under new conservative leadership. we deserve a president who will focus on the needs of our people, not on themselves. >> yeah! >> a president who will rebuild our economy, close our border, and stand up to our enemies. [applause] most importantly, we deserve a president who will stop our self loathing and division and fear, and make america strong and proud.

[applause] our campaign is the last best hope of stopping the trump biden nightmare. [applause] but it's more than that. republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections. that's nothing to be proud of. we should want to earn the support of a majority of americans. [applause] all the evidence says that if it's a trump biden rematch, it's gonna be another toss-up election. it could go either way. we could have more disputes over election interference. and joe biden could win again. >> no!

>> with kamala harris waiting in the wings. >> boo! >> lord help us if that happens. and then, look at what happens when i go ahead to head against biden! [applause] we went not in a landslide, it's not even close. that means no recounts, no lawsuits, and no doubts. [applause] it means no more chuck schumer leading the senate. [applause] no more endless votes for house huge house majority.ilha

[applause] that term do nothing washington politicians -- we will rebuild our economy and secure our border, no more excuses. [applause] and make no mistake, we will restore our national pride. we are blessed to live in america. and it's a time that we remember that. and as we head to new hampshire -- i have one more thing to say. >> you gotta win! [crowd chanting] [applause] >> underestimate me because that's always fun. [applause] i love you, iowa, but we are on

to new hampshire! [applause] >> haley, haley, haley, haley, haley, haley, haley! [crowd chanting] haley, haley, haley, haley -- [crowd chanting] >> thank you. you know, i have some people i need to thank. right here in iowa, we have so many great supporters. and i only have time to mention a few. but it's important. marvelous -- many of you knew and loved him, it's been a conservative -- >> a fired up nikki haley in new hampshire thanking a room of her fired-up supporters. she came in close third place in iowa, just after ron desantis. but she declared tonight that iowa has made this two person race. she said i will go to new

hampshire tonight. all eyes in fact are turned to new hampshire where haley does have a real shot of potentially winning next week's primary. joining us now from manchester, new hampshire, specifically the yankee lanes bowling alley -- [laughter] >> and the senior reporter ali, go on. >> reporter: i've been waiting all night for this, rachel. hold on. >> let's see. come on, come on -- >> reporter: this is as nikki haley is hoping she is not in the role -- >> they got up with the bumpers there. >> hold on, hold on -- let's give it another shot. >> you can do it! >> come on, come on. >> you've got this! [applause] >> reporter: that was much better, much better. now as for nikki haley, does

not want to roll a gutter ball here in new hampshire. i've been talking to a lot of voters here, and i keep hearing over and over and over again that they wanted to see her prove that she has a chance tonight in iowa. that was a second place win. there were some who said if she comes in a close third, okay. but here's the thing, voters in the state, republican voters tell me they want another option. and they say nikki haley has the best shot at another option. but it's not just republican voters. it's democratic voters as well who say they don't entirely like biden, and they are looking for someone else as well. listen to a conversation i had with a lovely lady named maria, a little bit later at the bowling alley. here's how she described it. >> i am heavily left. >> yeah. >> and, yeah, i think that both sides could do better. >> do you think democracy is in danger? >> oh, yeah.

>> do you think new hampshire is gonna go for donald trump or nikki haley? >> i hope haley. i hope haley. >> would you consider haley? >> yes. >> you would? >> yes. >> even though you are heavily liberal? >> yes. >> why? >> because i think both sides have had their field of men, and it's time for younger people to come in that have a broader scope, and are willing to work with the other side, governors screaming over their choice and wanting to go home, wanting to win. >> so, maybe a woman -- >> if it is haley versus biden, who would you vote for? >> haley. >> really? wow! >> mostly over the politics with israel right now. >> would her politics be much different? >> i think she is more willing to listen and in a gosia. and negotiate than president

biden. >> so, biden might have some trouble in new hampshire? >> yes. >> among democrats? >> yes. >> wow! >> reporter: so, i heard that over and over again, not just from mariah there, but other voters who said they have been voting democrat their whole life. they switched their party affiliation, voted republican. they are going to the primary next week and they tell me that it's not just about next week. they do want somebody other than biden on the ticket. that state is also pretty offended that joe biden took away their first vote status here, and moved into south carolina. they are super angry about that here in this state. and they want a change. they want to see something else. that being said, nikki haley out of south carolina, you've been talking about it all night, doesn't have the clearest path. they described it more as a deer trail. but she is hoping she could be more like john mccain in 2008, finding some momentum in this fiercely independent state, and independent minded voters are

voters who just don't love trump as much as we think they do in south carolina and beyond, that you can do it. the problem is that we just saw in iowa that he is still so intensely popular with the core of the republican party, the maga core of the party has just taken over so completely that it's hard to see what her path is. by the way, the name that i did not hear, not even once in this state while i was here, ron desantis. >> he hasn't been there. they don't know who he is. they can't even spell it. not likely to be a factor, they're not even heading straight to new hampshire out of his second place finish in iowa tonight. katy tur at that yankee bowling alley in manchester, new hampshire, getting better at the sport with every take, thank you, my friend. yes, do it. go on! come on. look at that, come on, come on -- oh, that is well done, katie. appreciate it. >> wonderful. >> i can't wait, you know,

talking to that voter about what she's got, i can't wait until mariah google's nikki haley's position on gaza -- >> like she was interviewed. people are pressured and they're not necessarily at this point paying a ton of attention, and they have feelings, like, for instance, i don't want more white men. or i'm angry at joe biden and his administration. that's real. >> the single issue, treatment of the palestinian, and then you say, and therefore, my candidate is nikki haley, that is a very fast run on a very short street. >> what's interesting, that voter, laid to me what's happening with my household. the young people i know that are around me, they had three beefs with joe biden. beef number one was his age, which seemed completely unfair. i remember having huge arguments with my godmother, fighting, it's like, you cannot help that and trump is the same age. but he reads older than trump

to young people. so they are meant that they feel they only have a choice of two elderly men and they see biden as reading so much older and more people. that is the first before. second, student loans. a lot of the messaging has been there so that they understand that biden actually -- >> hold. >> and that's getting better. >> and ron desantis as articulated the position as if you want student loans forgiven, the clear nkosi. declare bankruptcy. >> and so, they are cross pressured, but these are things that are causing them to look at someone like nikki haley because her hair was black, she seems younger. they're looking for an alternative that isn't biden. but the problem is that the alternative to biden is much more further to the right on gaza. >> david plouffe, watching nikki haley give that speech, obviously, she is good at delivering a speech. she is fired up. she is speaking to a fired up room. she was polished. she got a much better response

and that room than ron desantis has. what did you make of the content of what she was saying? >> well, first ron desantis looked like he was coming out of a root canal. there was no energy. i think this is that speaking, at least he understands internally that the road is over for him. i thought it was a very compelling message. i don't think it's gonna be out of the republican nomination, but in terms of the messaging for new hampshire voters, and if she is able to win new hampshire after that, she had a case. and i think that's what we're gonna talk about, and we talked about this earlier, if she actually wants to try and win the nomination this year, she is gonna have to lay more wood on trump. even if that can cause her trouble down the road. and what that suggests is that she's probably gonna be willing to do that. >> what i found was interesting about it in terms of the way she put it, because i think steve kornacki has been correct that it can be very dangerous to go after him, right? if you go after him, separate yourself in ways that looks like you are playing into their liberal media, according to the enemy, and you hurt yourself. this sort of general generation,

let's move on, let's move to the forward, not the past. it wasn't, like, do you know he's going to civil trial, where he is found liable for sexual abuse? it wasn't that. and it wasn't threat to american democracy. it was, let's move on. do we want to be mired in this? do we want to do this again? and i think if there is a way to thread the needle, that's probably -- >> she said i'm the answer, i have the answer to the trump biden nightmare. i thought she was declaring a no labels or third-party candidacy. >> it was the strongest anti trump speech on this side of chris christie's speeches as a candidate, and chris christie has really great final speeches as a candidate. it seems to answer this question before she spoke about basically, is she running for nomination this year or not? that's the speech you gave if you are running this year. >> but, i mean, there is the potential for a third party candidacy. that is not, there is this no labels group that has been try to get ballot position all over the country.

>> they had some in key states. >> if nikki haley wins new hampshire, or she does well in new hampshire, but then she gets slapped in the rest of the primary, and trump is gonna be the republican nominee, if nikki haley rand, as she said tonight, to be the answer to the trump biden nightmare, the solution to that, if she ran against trump and biden, against trump and biden, against trump and biden, neither candidate who's either of those things -- >> i would love to see that poll. >> who was chances that she spoke? that she take voters away from trump more than she does from biden? >> i mean, that will be my sense because it gives republicans who would never vote for biden a place to go. i think that's highly unlikely. but the third party just deserves a lot more attention i think that it's getting, because even if no labels doesn't field anybody, and we know historically, third parties, if they are polling a ten, they get to. but if this collection of existing third-party candidates, not to mention no labels, were to get five, six, seven, donald

trump winning the presidency, like he did it in 2016, with 47% of the vote, it's a much different challenge than 50%. >> we have much more of our special coverage of the iowa caucuses, still ahead. reminder, we will be here on thursday night this week, 11 pm eastern, for coverage of this week's new hampshire debate. i wonder who's gonna be in it. stay with us. ♪ ♪ ♪ a force to be reckon with. no, not you saquon. hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently. having triplets is... -amazing -expensive. so, we switched to the bargain detergent, but we ended up using three times as much and the clothes still weren't as clean as with tide. so we're back with tide, and the clothes are clean again.

do 3x the laundry and get a tide clean. my money should work itas hard as i do.e.

that's why i used my freedom unlimited card every time i get gas. [laughing] get a little slack on pump three! earn big with chase freedom unlimited.

how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours. ♪♪ new double pollo fit bowls. only at el pollo loco. it is midnight here in new

(♪♪) (♪♪) the new festive family meal. starting at $24. now celebrating at el pollo loco. york, 11 pm in iowa, where tonight, caucus goers braved record temperatures, gathered in gyms and schools acss