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york, 11 pm in iowa where tonight caucus goers brave record low temperatures, gathered in gyms, churches, schools across the state and give us the first tangible look at where republican voters stand right now. and tonight, i will republicans delivered a resounding victory to donald trump. nothing usually surprising, there but we'll still talk about what that means. with me at the tables an all-star panel. former obama campaign manager, embassy -- and my old boss david blough. and the host of the weekend on msnbc, michael steele, simone sanders townsend, and alicia menendez. everybody is working very hard over the past couple of days. nbc news can project that on trump will exceed 50% tonight. we can also project that florida governor ron desantis will finish second, which is a bit surprising coming into tonight. we'll bring you any updated numbers it's in as we get them and stay close with our decision desk and, of, course the one and only steve kornacki. the field is also one candidate

smaller tonight. vivek ramaswamy announced he is dropping out of the race and endorsing donald trump. for, trump this is on track to be the largest victory by -- in caucus history by a lot actually. the largest margin of victory, as a reminder, currently facing 91 charges across four criminal cases. when it comes to that many crosses against many cases, most iowa caucus voters did not seem at all concerned. according to an s.e.c. news entrance polls, two thirds of them say that even if trump is convicted he is still fit to be president. of course, those who do believe that overwhelmingly voted for him tonight. we thought that in the numbers, as well. in case you are wondering, we also learned tonight, from those very same entry polls, that the big lie is very much alive and well among iowa's broken caucus goers. about two thirds of them still say that president joe biden did not legitimately when the

2020 election. he, of course, definitely did. now, with an iowa win under donald trump's belt traditionally be time to head to new hampshire. it's usually what candidates do. they wake, up go to pit stops, they go to diners, that is usually what they do. but, not for trump. instead, you will make a pit stop, a different kind of, one in a new york city courtroom for the start of a trial tomorrow that will determine how much he has to pay writer e. jean carroll for defaming her after she accused him of sexual abuse. again, that is the guy that is hovering a little over 50% of the vote in the state of iowa right now. it's we're repeating that. we have so much to talk about, but first let's get right to steve kornacki at the big board. steve, take us inside the numbers. there are surprises tonight, i would say? >> yeah. actually, one breaking surprise, we'll start with that. it's a blowout win for trump as you can see and desantis is edging haley for second place. until about 15 minutes ago that trump was going to go 99 for 99

and when everything in iowa, and then a final batch of votes came in where in johnson county, this is where the university is. we just think, not entirely sure, but we think this is all the votes in johnson county now. look at this, nikki haley, in the end, winning by one vote over donald trump. so the difference of one vote in johnson county may, it seems, will prevent donald trump from having a 19 high county sweep. literally the difference of one vote. an interesting nugget of the end of the night. johnson county, of, course actually has the highest concentration of college degrees of any county in iowa. no surprise, it's where the university of iowa's. but we talked about that being the backbone of a lease coalition, that she had built in iowa. college degrees, higher incomes, suburban, metropolitan dwellers. this is a county tailor made to her and it looks like there has been a projection it will be the only county she, winds that

a non-trump candidate wins. haley was competitive but frankly a little disappointing for her campaign -- a big suburban counties outside of des moines. i think the haley campaign thought they should get closer, even beat trump there. you look at paul, county this is the biggest county in the state by far were des moines's. a lot of suburbs there to. haley finishing, may end up finishing third place here. also a disappointment for her. but these are the areas where she ran that last. i start with her because, if anybody in the next contest in new hampshire is going to give trump around there, it's going to be the kayleigh. it's what all the polls show, certainly, and demographically the vote that she did the best in iowa tonight, independent voters. her exit poll almost got trump with him. independent voters made up 16% of this electorate in new hampshire tonight, in iowa tonight in new hampshire next week. they could make up 45% or so of the electorate. that is what could give nikki haley a chance next week. if you just look at the independents here, it's like

three times as many of them in the new hampshire electorate next week. all the polling in new hampshire has showed her leading with independent so far. for, trump it is one in 2016. these margins absolutely exploded and i think the most notable thing for trump is the counties that were the most evangelical and churchgoing in the state or the most resistant, some of the most resistant to him back in 2016, including sioux county this was trump's worst county in iowa in 2016, he got 11% of the vote here. look at that, he wins it by double digits tonight, from 11, to 45%, he jumped 34 points in this county. this county, and so many others, you know, there are 42 counties in iowa. it went from mike huckabee, who won the evangelical vote in 2000, and it went from nick santorum who won the evangelical vote in 2012, one of the state, and it went for dead cruz in 2016 over. trump cruz won the evangelical vote, won the state. 42 counties fit that criteria. trump swept all 42 of those counties. that won't he has with evangelical

voters, it has really form after the 2016 i will caucuses. you really see what it's turned into eight years later in these results. and as you mentioned, this is two records, the previous best margin of the republican caucus was 12 points, 1988, bob dole, that walmarts. and the 51% that is fully ten points higher than the previous higher voter on the republican side and i, what it was george w. bush back in 2000. busch of course did go on to win the nomination. >> if anybody thinks the road doesn't count, johnson county, i want to have a word with you. steve kornacki, one question i have before i let you go, i mean, ron desantis, he's been losing in the polls over the last couple of polls by the des moines register. he's been losing steam, i should say. where in the state did he do better than expected, that really stood out to you? >> i don't know if it was doing better than expected, or if it was nikki haley doing more. i can see another couple of examples here -- i'll show you, let's just go back to dallas county. haley was supposed to be beating him by a bigger margin here. this is an

under-performance by nikki haley in this county. might be an over performance for desantis. this is a place where haley was supposed to do better. and there's a lot of votes. that's not mean that it may look like a lot of votes, but that's a lot of votes in these caucuses. that's not a good showing for nikki haley right there. we mentioned polk county, it's a really bad score for haley, finishing behind, she used to be in second place here, ideally, her campaign would have wanted to win that, maybe even having a fantastic night, having a win in polk county. like underperformance for her here in these suburban areas. and the problem was, the bottom just fell out for her in rural areas. there is more than 20 counties in the state where she finished in single digits tonight. there are only four counties where ron desantis is gonna finish in single digits. >> really did not show the expansion of a coalition for nikki haley tonight in iowa. steve kornacki, i know these are long nights for you, thank you, again, for sticking up

with all of us. i want to bring in nbc news correspondent dasha burns, who was at governor ron desantis's headquarters in west des moines, iowa. dasha, tell us what's happening on the ground right now and how does the team feel? >> reporter: well, look, as the party is winding down here, no doubt, the entire team is breathing a sigh of relief. he did edge out nikki haley for second place. and this was do or die for that desantis campaign. they poured so many resources, so much energy into the state. look, if you had created rubric for how to run a campaign in iowa, they really checked all the boxes. i was in the state back in june when they were trading door knocker's, knocking on nearly 1 million doors here, they got all the right endorsements. governor kim reynolds, evangelical leader, he spent four times here than any other candidate, and you said vivek ramaswamy, of course, who dropped out tonight. but the end of the day, that was kind of the big factor here. if he did all of that, and he did not come in second place, that was gonna be a huge problem for him. the fact that he made it to second place, is that tonight, you punch my card. i

can now come out of iowa and go on with a campaign here. but he's not having to go to new hampshire to more. is actually heading to south carolina to stop on nikki haley's home turf. the two of them are gonna be going at it. here's the thing, iowa sets the narrative, right? that's why the state is so important. and the narrative that we got tonight is donald trump is absolutely dominant, and the non-trump vote is still very much split. it's not, like, desantis came out of this with a resounding second place win. it is very close, as far as we see it right now. i know we don't have the final margins yet, but it's very close. nikki haley it's going to dominate in new hampshire. but then, she's gonna struggle in south carolina. as we look at that map going forward, with a non-trump vote, it's gonna be really tough for anyone to catch the former president. but his rivals do live to fight another day. >> ron desantis, living to fight another day. there we go, and we see that robert, thank you so much for joining us,

early a&m. i want to bring out and d. c. correspondent vaughn hillyard who is in des moines tonight, donald trump's iowa headquarters. what are you hearing there from the trump team? >> reporter: donald trump is not in new hampshire. this was the dominant wind that he was looking for. frankly, one notable figure that was up on that spade stage, perhaps not very notable too much of the country, but the north dakota governor, doug burgum, he's the one republican presidential candidate who took on donald trump, who appeared on the debate stage with him, dropped out, and then, just this weekend, endorsed him. donald trump, welcome to the state. we did not see tim scott, mike pence up there. it was doug bergen, so far, as the one who started the coalescing around trump. and frankly, it is notable because we have lived through this before. eight years ago, i was here in the state of iowa. and it was ron desantis, or i should say, ted cruz who was making many of the

same arguments that we've been hearing ron desantis over the last couple of days that donald trump is going to get careened in a general election, that fox news is not being fair. these are the types of arguments that we heard from ted cruz eight years ago. and yet, what did we see already? we see marco rubio this weekend, just eight years after he was endorsed by nikki haley, not return the favor here in 2024, but instead endorsed donald trump here. and that is where it was back, on the day of that miami nbc debate, and i ask a campaign senior adviser, what is your message to republicans have not gotten on board with trump here on this point in the middle of his retribution? and a senior adviser told me, tiktok. right now, what we are finding, went like this tonight is just how long the rest of this republican party will wait to coalesce not around an anti trump candidate like haley or on desantis, but coalesce around trump who could very well be on his way to this nomination. >> you can hear that and the beginning part of his speech tonight, he went a little off

the rails later. vaughn hillyard, thank you so much for joining us. you've been working hard there in the freezing cold temperatures. thanks for being with us tonight. i'm gonna go to my panel. i want to get your thoughts. a lot to dig into. i want to start, we've heard from a lot of these candidates tonight since we've seen the result. i just mentioned trump, he started out sort of full restraint trump, i call it, about everybody coalescing, coming together. what did you make of his comments tonight, or his speech? >> it was typical trump in many respects. but i think trump also recognizes a window in which he can put a lot more pressure on nikki haley going to new hampshire then she may realize because the idea among the rank and file of the party is, okay, everybody needs to get on board behind trump. vivek comes out, gets out, endorses. trump burgum endorses trump. >> berger, is really having a

moment -- >> he is having a moment. but you have others inside the party itself, officials inside the party making that move towards trump. so, it's gonna put a lot of pressure on new hampshire. new hampshire has always been certainly republican primary circles that outlier state because democrats and independents get to play and have a say in who the nominee is. in any other election cycle, that's good for john mccain, that is good for, you know, a george bush. in this election cycle, it doesn't play the same way. if you are not on board going to new hampshire, you are not going to be the person that's going to pull that party away from trump on to you when you get to south carolina, your home state, and elsewhere. so, it creates, i think, an interesting pressure point for nikki in how she plays to that democrat independent base that she's

gonna need to push her numbers up to overtake trump. and at the same time, not lose that trump base. >> i mean, new hampshire, it's such a different electorate from iowa, different than a lot of the other states. we also saw nikki haley speak. it gave us a bit of a sense of how she's gonna maybe play the next couple of days. what did you make of her remarks? >> i think she wants to fight. she made a compelling case, at least, to the new hampshire voter. and also against trump, both on character grounds and electability grounds. it is going after both trump and biden, but making that generational case. i think the question is if she can't win in new hampshire, tuesday, january 23rd, republican primary, it's over. general election -- if i were trump, i would declare it over. i will not go to any of the primary states. and i will start the general election immediately. if nikki haley wins, then you probably go through march. her challenge is to figure out, and i think it's that steep challenge, how can

you deep in some of those traditional republican voters. and maybe that takes really bad polls, where she beats biden by ten. and i don't think that's enough. but i think that's what we are down to, and i think desantis had a shot. he didn't take advantage of it. we heard all the money all the time. he's not gonna have that anywhere else. i'm sure he will and -- >> if he got in third, it would have been harder. >> but there is no way to go. i grew up in campaigns, you gotta win. if you can't win, and it's a blue state that this guy can win. but hailie, i was impressed that she made a case. it was probably the stronger case -- and i agree with you, trump is gonna be wiped out there. this is a brutal week in american politics. and we will

see how she can handle the spotlight. but if she is able to win, her bat >> republican voters may still like his policies, but you have to get them something to vote for. and what nikki haley said, you can turn on the television and see something better right now. i think that she has to turn the page from being a pundit and get a bit more inspirational. and the debate will go for the opportunity to do that. it's gonna be the biggest stage -- >> this is her and desantis. >> if he is still standing there. i do think he would be standing there because there is no, i mean, had he come in the third, i think i would be on desantis drop out watch. he came in second and it's an opportunity -- and i think at the end of the day, you won a primary by delegates. and donald trump is the one that came out of iowa with the most delegates. there are delegates

in new hampshire. there are some delegates and nevada. haley will not be able to gather any of those delegates because she's not participating there. i do think he would be standing there because there is no, i mean, had he come in the third, i think i would be on desantis drop out watch. he came in second and it's an opportunity -- and i think at the end of the day, you won a primary by delegates. and donald trump is the one that came out of iowa with the most delegates. there are delegates in new hampshire. there are some delegates and nevada. haley will not be able to gather any of those delegates because she's not participating around the caucus. she's only participating in the primary, although there will be no delegates there. she is not poised to win her home state. there has not been a republican nominee and only two presidents in our modern day history have lost their home state and gone on to win the presidency, five total. the math is not -- >> it's certainly a hard speech if you lose your state. one of the things that's challenging, alicia, with haley, how she runs against trump. first of

all, he's already tried to birther her. and he's gonna come after her with already, all the things he's got. let us play if we have this her and her caucus mates where she talks about trump. she's made the same argument again and again about how she supported him in the past. and then we will talk about. do we have it? okay, so, we will get it up -- >> what it underscores to me is that just how unusual this moment is. i think sometimes, you hear the campaign election music swell, and you see the head shots pop up, and you see steve kornacki at the big board. and it's really easy to forget what it is that you're talking about here. we are talking about the fact that republicans are prepared to put forward as their nominee, four times indicted, twice impeached former president who has no real winning record, right? he has lost the popular vote

twice. he lost the electoral college won. he lost the iowa caucuses, despite the fact that tonight on stage, he tried to claim having one. he endorses -- >> ted cruz's argument years ago. >> basically, to me, the biggest tell is, we always say why, how, how is it possible? why would all of these folks be coming out in sub-zero temperatures to support someone whether or not certain can win in a general election. and the fact that you had in these entrance polls, two thirds of these caucus goers say that they do not believe that joe biden and the current president of the united states is a legitimately elected president, it helps explain why they don't think donald trump is a loser because they have bought his lie that he did not lose. >> hold your thought because i know -- >> actually, to be clear, i was trying to be ironic -- >> i love it. don't back up -- >> i'm gonna back up and say -- >> okay. well, you do have a good point. we do have to sneak in a break. clearly, michael steele is jumping. he is ready to say something. we'll be

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the new festive family meal. starting at $24. now celebrating at el pollo loco. the iowa caucus is tonight. ron desantis, he got a second place finish tonight over nikki haley, giving him a rationale for staying in this race. and yet, nikki haley said tonight that iowa turned this into a two person race. >> tonight, iowa made this republican primary a two person race. [applause] tonight, tonight, i will be back in the great state of new hampshire. and the question before americans is now very clear. do you want more of the same?

>> no! [crowd chanting] >> or do you want a new generation of conservative leadership? [applause] [applause] we are back with our panel. okay, people in the room, they would be liked her speech. i'm not sure how she squares that two person race argument. i, mean ron desantis, we may all agree, he doesn't have a path forward. but he did beat her. >> he beat her in new hampshire, so it's still a three person race. matt is. matt >> is asa hutchinson still in the race as well. >> so, it's a four person race. >> to simone's point about the speech writer who did not do last-minute edits. that was a speech that was written as though intended to be given -- >> or she is hoping people are not really following the steve

kornacki big board and she just wants to tell people how she did, and look, i have all of the momentum going to new hampshire. >> i think the fact that remains, and this is trump's stance, he paid for the orchestra. he paid for the balloons and the confetti. he paid for the dance hall. i mean, it's his dance. so, you can come in and you think you can, you know, whirl around the room and take out this. is that how's gonna work? >> i don't know. he likely did not poke pick any of them -- >> i agree with the point. >> please, let me finish the point really quick. the point, i understand a lot of, there's a lot of momentum and energy that want to push nikki over the line in new hampshire, regardless of whatever happened in iowa at the end of the day. i just don't see those numbers, and i don't see that energy in that base for that. and independent and democratic voters are not gonna be enough

in a republican primary to overcome trump in another primary with a different republican. i just think they are changing that trump turnout machine. >> i mean, look, to be clear, she did not have a good night tonight. she had a poll that showed her for the first time in second place just a few days ago. it's not that our numbers are so off from their. obviously, you need to make a bet about that in the electorate. but desantis beat her. he was pretending he was barely in the race as of couple of days ago. >> i have no problem when she said. in reality, it's a two person race. she did not meet the expectations the last couple of weeks, right? but she just needed to do what she did because desantis has nothing after this. he put all of his chips in to iowa. it's what we did in 2008. it's what candidates have done historically. and if you put all your chips there, to when

and you don't, you are out. and when desantis just have any realistic, but it might not have been polite for her to say that, but that's the reality, and the entire world is gonna be focused on new hampshire in the next eight days. it's gonna be a trump haley discussion. desantis won't even be part of. it the only way that it's, that desantis is in the picture, would be, let's say haley loses by ten or 15 next week, i don't think she would. but she decides, i'm out. and then ron desantis is left standing to love 70 30, if not 80 20. so, it is a two person race in that. by the way, she is got like a 2% chance. but those are the only two people i think you can credibly say have a chance. and for her, like, it's gotta be an amazing black swan event, starting with a win next week. >> a black swan event. i love that -- >> that's what trump had in 2016. they happen in politics, but very rarely. his numbers are so strong. and if you look at illinois, california, and maryland, trump is a dominant, dominant front-runner even if haley wins. >> california matters. that's their biggest get four delegates on super tuesday.

they made a point during the break that i think that people should hear. and the question is we are due chris christie's voters go? and if you look back at the speech that the former governor of new jersey gave when he suspended his campaign, he very clearly, bolded and underlined, endorsing and it was former opponents in this race. he noted that anyone who is unwilling to say that donald trump is unfit to be president is unfit to be president themselves. all of the people left in this race have been unwilling to say that, and by chris christie's own standard, he was telling his voters that none of these people deserve your votes. i think he was making general election argument. but he was speaking to those people that were with them, with him in that room. yes, there were some democrats in that room. there were a lot of independents and republicans in that room, and it was full. i just do not think that nikki haley is up to the task because if you want to win, you have to

compete. and this, honey, has not been a competition. to that point we do have the sound of haley talking about trump, and how she formally worked for him. this is such a tricky little word cell that she has going on but let's -- >> i have spoken so much to america, here is another truth. i voted for donald trump twice, i was proud to serve in his administration. but when i see more of the same, you know what i am talking about, it is both donald trump and joe biden. trump and biden both lack a vision for our country's future, because both are consumed by the past. by investigations, by vendettas, by grievances, america deserves better. [applause] we >> reporter: so i do think one she's a good speaker she's a good speaker that contrast in

terms of next generation is very good and effective i think what feels tricky to me is a becomes a two person race. she says she worked for him, i voted for him twice, he was the right president than, but not the right president now. it feels a little -- >> it's a type of world salad only very expensive polling him by -- the things that her consultants have told her. i think, that what she is trying to do if i can dissect. that is to create, what we often talk about which is a permission structure for trump voters to say not this time. >> i'm young i'm next-gen. >> but not even just that i too saw the appeal we think a lot about these folks but who do not want to admit that they were duped and they don't know how to come back from that and focus that maybe they still like him but they are not sure if he can still be elected. she says i am one of you, i too voted for him, i'm ready to make -- a are you ready to? i think what we saw in iowa tonight is not necessarily for

republican voters, who are ruling in a primary to make that -- >> she saw what you just said because that is better. >> that is better. >> they are not available for a speech writer. it's a new show, otherwise you're giving free advice on msnbc. -- thank you for staying up with us tonight, you aren't going anywhere you've got a good start tonight. we have so much more to get to, as well as the race in new hampshire we will be back after a very quick break.

>> reporter: results from iowa and republican candidates are on the move to their next destinations for nikki haley, it is straight to new hampshire she, better nail some sort of rally when she arrives. donald trump is headed to new york tonight, obviously, where he'll be attending the start of a new civil trial brought to him by e. jean carroll. before attending a rally later in the evening. for ron desantis, it's south carolina he's bucking usual political tradition to attend a state that will not be holding its primary for another month. now, after donald trump's victory tonight, it'll be one blast view last best

chances to build any sort of momentum, and challenge the heavy republican favorite. whether there is any reality to that is a big question, or any question? but the best place to do it, is haley. she's been endorsed by governor new new, and over the past we close the polling gap between her and donald trump. david plouffe, and michael steele are still here with me and joining the conversation, some fresh blood bush's 2016 campaign -- former communications director for barack obama, jennifer palmieri, she is also the host of an msnbc podcast how to win 2024. okay, fresh blood here. tim miller i know you have some thoughts, some rounds, about what will happen in new hampshire. what does it look like for new here for nikki haley. does it have any impact? >> it was a profoundly

depressing night, i would like to start with that donald trump attempted a coup three years ago and he is on a glide path to the biggest blow out, in any presidential contest, in any of our adult lives including jeremy steele. [laughter] that is what is happening right now. nikki haley, it feels like it is a show campaign going on, we have to go through the motions, i said to jan is like belarus like lukashenko puts up to other candidates to have on the ballot at this point. nikki lost by 32 points tonight. the biggest blow out before this in history, was 12 points. what is going to happen in new hampshire? democrats are going to savor? >> she won in johnson county, one county, by one vote, which is like the brooklyn or boulder of iowa. to name what it is [laughter] it's where iowa city, is the university of iowa, she did not make up any ground among any coalition that is beyond democrats, never trumpers, independents.

>> white suburban republican -- >> in fact lost ground. >> because jeremy steele predicted that she would come in third and she would not -- but we were talking about this. she is like a television character presidential candidate, but does not actually go for the gusto. i don't feel -- if she really had the fire in her she would be going directly act trump not have a metaphor of trump and biden are the same. still, she may win in new hampshire because new hampshire really does not like trump. if you look at the general election polling, biden is doing really well there, a lot of anti trump messaging. they really don't like him. democrats and

independents maybe chic they can save her in new hampshire, for their own status they have to prove they are relevant. so, maybe they want to do. it michael is right, i have been to trump rallies in new hampshire. there are a lot of bodies that show up. it is possible that it is not really reflected in the polling. but, i think, new hampshire is going to want this to be a fight, they will want to do something different than iowa. >> that's what they always do is not right david blough? >> historically, yes she is holding a weak hand no question about that, but she is the only one with cards at the table other than trump. so -- >> does she have cards after new hampshire? though >> no, if she doesn't wear next week it's over though donald trump is the nominee. >> even if she wins new hampshire? >> even then, it is perilous territory because there is no state like new hampshire the rest of the way. i think that is probably the highlight. then she gets drilled in her home state, and then loses down on super tuesday, but at least she lives to fight another day. let's see how heat trump deals with the loss he will not deal with it well. let's deal with

the math. for her to win new hampshire, maybe you still get -- 60% of the other candidates, desantis still gets on. could she get 40 to 46% of the vote? maybe. but she can't get 50. this week matters to, it's an hour to hour thing in new hampshire, having been through it before. it is also how she performs, the spotlight has always been her friend. trump will land mines for her no question about that. it's a gift if she wins new hampshire, and get clobbered everywhere else. if she does not win new hampshire, if i were donald trump next week he's clearly eager for the primary to be over, and it will be over. if i were him i would not go to another primary state, just say i'm running against biden, i'll be in wisconsin, arizona the day after that, and it is on, whatever desantis and haley do. they'll be special figures running around the country no i cares. >> you have a special energy tonight. it is flying around of pennsylvania.

>> it was like the fox news of town hall last week, energy maybe it was strategic. >> maybe i don't. now >> maybe he is just getting tired. >> each has caught up with him. the reality though, to david's point what is the point? this is a presidential -- >> you are now at the -- nikki haley when a new hampshire. i think donald trump gets 50% of the vote in new hampshire, and i think people need to be realistic about whose party this is. you people want to run a race that does not exist. you just need to stop it, and recognize the facts. what do i know, i was a county chairman, a state chairman, international chairman, i think i know how the party works internally. >> and the party is changed a lot since then. >> it has changed a lot, i watched it change on my watch. i have been a part of it i've been in that room, i know these folks, i know them well. they are committed, and they are committed to the guy who is

right now sitting here, with over 50% coming out of iowa, going into new hampshire. how much steam do you think he loses, when he gets to new hampshire? how much steam do you think he loses when he gets to south carolina and nevada? >> and if he thinks he is losing he will -- more so i think we should all prepare ourselves more. >> we should be realistic about what we are talking about here, i get everybody wants to put this in the traditional presidential race box, and this has not been a traditional presidential race since 2016, and we need to stop looking at it that way. we need to understand that the guy who represents the existential threat to this country, to your point is about to become the nominee of my party. that concerns me, and i don't see nikki haley, i don't see anybody else stopping that from

happening. >> we are going to dig into all the -- whole joe thought we are going to come back after the break. everybody is sticking around, we're going to keep digging through the numbers including the anti reports, which to display a lot of what you are talking about, so everyone stay with us till we come back. come back.

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visit coventrydirect.com. victory in iowa tonight was thanks in large part to key demographic parts that make up the maga base, including white

evangelical quest christians who did not exactly love them back in 2016 but. they represent half of the total electorate. he won 53% of that group. likewise more than half of all caucus goers can serve themselves as very conservative, among them 61% voted for trump. it is not surprising that trump won by such a wide margin what is more surprising, trump also edged out his republican rivals with those with the college degree, and identified as independents. as nikki haley emphasized her electability as a big selling point turned out in these exit polls, to be a low priority issue for caucus goers. 41% said a candidate that quote, shares their values, was the most important quality in deciding who they would

support. while 14% said i candidates event ability to win a november mattered the most to them. these are important, pause are generally imperfect but some of the stuff is pretty interesting including statistics i mentioned earlier for entering poll numbers. about two thirds of caucus goers, do not think joe biden was the elected president, the duly elected president. two thirds of the time would be fine if trump was a convicted felon. those were the ones that stuck out to me as well. what have you learned, did we learn anything about demographics in iowa, anything surprise you with those numbers? >> well the folks not believing biden's not legitimate i'm surprised it is that low, i thought it would be higher. who >> who is the other third? maybe there are other people. >> yeah, i'm surprised it wasn't easy. his support is

deep, it is geographic, demographic, it's education, its income, its ideology, so new hampshire is the one place where that might get upset a little bit, just because of the nature of the electorate there. then you will have, specifically because there is no democratic -- as you go deeper into the calendar it just shows, he is almost unassailable. it is hard to see a weakness there. so, you would think that in most states trump's favor to do what he did in iowa tonight. >> one of the questions, first of all, what it means to be an evangelical is another question i have someone writes another big story about. evangelicals did not, trump did not change to shape himself to them, they change to shape themselves to hit him. >> the path to beating trump back in 2016 in one of the most devout evangelicals, and the man you want on top of that are some of my people all the moderates, the urban suburban types. but, that has only gotten a lot worse since then. and the evangelicals, clearly, as we saw in iowa, when trump wins -- outside the deep south overwhelmingly, with no competition. so that coalition within the republican party is

gone now. you cannot win a republican primary, with just the latter half, suburban republicans. even in that coalition trump whence. look at the data he's when in college educated, but even if we don't trans the entrance falls, you can trust the raw data. he won des moines, he whined dallas county which is the suburbs of des moines, where democrats have done better recently. where there recently >> was a shooting by the way, and trump said let's move forward. people support him there. >> the fundamental truth, this whole primary, is that republicans are not looking for an alternative to donald trump. they, in other -- it's very unusual for someone in office to run again, he is basically an incumbent running. it has always been the case, since ron desantis had that window early on in 22, it's been the case that trump has had the majority of the party, and you cannot win without his supporters. no one has been able to articulate a reason to have people come their way without losing.

>> they didn't really try. >> the art, this is not like a stellar group of like -- wow what a really great -- >> not just super strong set of candidates, it's very cultural which is my other takeaway. we're going to sneak in a very quick break, we're stupid we have another full hour of special coverage. predictions in iowa and beyond, lot of caffeine stay with us we'll be back. testing, kickstart healthy weight loss. i feel amazing. i lost 35 pounds. i lost 50 pounds. with no. it delicious every day and lose weight with this new medication. take advantage of our offer. get $40 off with this promo code. order now. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ it's one a. m. here in new york, midnight in iowa, and a very first test of the 2024 republican primary season is

not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives of banks, big pharma, even top administration officials. katie porter. never taken corporate pac money - never will.

leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks” that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message. this election is a choice between results or just rhetoric. californians deserve a senator who is going to deliver for them every day and not just talk a good game. adam schiff. he held a dangerous president accountable. he also helped lower drug costs, bring good jobs back home, and build affordable housing. now he's running for the senate. our economy, our democracy, our planet. this is why we fight. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message. onday. only at sleep number.