es - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message. this election is a choice between results or just rhetoric. californians deserve a senator who is going to deliver for them every day and not just talk a good game. adam schiff. he held a dangerous president accountable. he also helped lower drug costs, bring good jobs back home, and build affordable housing. now he's running for the senate. our economy, our democracy, our planet. this is why we fight. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message. right now on msnbc, reports, special coverage as the courtroom and the campaign trail collide with the republican

front-runner. donald trump not hitting the ground running in new hampshire this morning, after iowa, but instead in a new york city courtroom. is it a foreshadow of the 2024 race to come? we'll break down his sweeping victory in the iowa caucus including the coalition of voters that gave him a record-breaking win. also ahead, the race for second place. ron desantis edging out nikki haley in iowa, but now they head to new hampshire. why the map ahead looks tough for florida's governor. hello, great to have you with us. it is 10:00 eastern. i'm ana cabrera reporting from new york with my colleague jose diaz-balart with coverage of the 2024 race. >> today the winner of the iowa caucuses is not back on the trial. instead he's on trial. donald trump arrived at a courthouse in manhattan for the start of a second defamation

trial in the case brought by author e. jean carroll. >> this just hours after that iowa win, with the former president taking over 50% of the vote. and in the race for second place, ron desantis just barely edging out nikki haley. >> i can safely say tonight iowa made this republican primary a two-person race. >> in spite of all of that that they threw at us, everyone against us, we have got our ticket punched out of iowa. >> this the third time we have won. but this is the biggest win. this is the -- they said well, if you win by 12%, that's a big win. that's going to be very hard to do. i think we more than doubled that, i guess. tripled it maybe. >> joining us to kick off our coverage, vaughn hillyard in iowa, ali vitali, dasha burns in south carolina, we're all across the country in these next contests, but let's start with

steve kornacki, who i don't think has slept since last night's caucuses. what are the big takeaways from the results? >> yeah, i think a couple of things. obviously just a totalizing nature of trump's victory. he won 98 of the 99 counties in iowa and the one he lost, he literally lost by one single vote. so he came one vote away from a 99 for 99 county sweep in iowa. i think what was most notable about his supporters, where he made the biggest gains relative to 2016. remember, 2016, evangelical voters were skeptical of donald trump, especially in iowa where he lost. he won them overwhelmingly last night. this was with ron desantis who is really making a strong pitch for the evangelical vote. look at the map, the far northwest corner of iowa, that was trump's worst region in 2016. he got 11% in one of the biggest counties there in northwest iowa. he won that same county last night with 45% of the vote. so 34-point jump. i think in terms of haley and desantis, haley's support very

concentrated in urban areas, suburban areas, higher income, places with lots of college degrees. when you got outside those areas, her support fell like a rock. and desantis was basically almost drafting off of trump. he was going after the same voters trump was. he won some of them over obviously. but the vast majority of those voters clearly preferred donald trump to ron desantis. it is hard to see where desantis goes from here. he's going after a similar type of voter and that voter seems to be saying they want trump. for nikki haley, that's the making of a coalition that could compete in new hampshire. beyond new hampshire with those limitations of not being able to perform outside of metro areas and with independents and even some democrats, that's a limitation for her. >> vaughn, the morning after iowa, we're usually talking about the front-runner heading to new hampshire. we're not. he's choosing to go to court. what are we hearing from his team today? >> reporter: this is a calculation that has been made by his team and by donald trump himself.

i asked him about their decisions to go to these hearings and these proceedings, including this one for e. jean carroll, and i was told by a senior adviser that donald trump is not going to let anyone have a free shot on goal, the words he intends as we saw in the civil fraud trial against him go through the closing arguments that his defense is making on his behalf, but now sitting here in the courtroom today and potentially at other points here this week, and which a jury is going to determine how much money he owes e. jean carroll for defaming her. a jury already found him for sexually abusing her in the 1990s. and donald trump is choosing to use the courtroom as a dividing point between him and his republican opponents and making the case that he is being unfairly targeted, of course. a jury already found him to have

sexually abused and defamed e. jean carroll. as for the republican electorate in iowa, a different jury, and, yesterday, a majority of them said that they want donald trump despite the criminal trials in front of him to be their nominee. i want to let you listen to donald trump's -- part of his speech last night, because as you can hear from him, he seemingly made it clear that he wants nikki haley and ron desantis to bow out, and end this political intraparty battle altogether. take a listen. >> it would be so nice if we could come together and straighten out the world and straighten out the problems and straighten out all of the death and destruction that we're witnessing. it is practically never been like this, it is just so important and i want to make that a very big part of our message. we're going to come together. it is going to happen soon too. going to happen soon. >> reporter: two hours after those remarks there, his campaign kind of went into the normal state of being that we're used to.

in which the spokesman for donald trump put on twitter, quote, you have no idea what is about to happen, and the pain your campaign/candidate will experience. put that in a tweet, directing it at ron desantis. so, we should expect a lot more of that type of energy over the next seven days. guys? >> and dasha, ron desantis finished second in iowa. but he isn't in new hampshire this morning. the next contest. instead, he's focusing on south carolina. how does his team see the map after iowa? >> kind of a bizarre caucus hangover today with all three of us kind of in different places here. normally most of the candidates would be rushing to new hampshire right now. but you got one in court, one in new hampshire, one here in south carolina. the reason being strategically really highlighted by what steve kornacki said when he was explaining the map there. look, desantis wants to highlight the disadvantages that haley has moving forward in her path to victory or lack thereof.

because she really does run into a wall here in south carolina. she does great with moderates and some democrats too in new hampshire, but south carolina has gotten much more conservative, much redder since she was governor here. and desantis thinks that, you know, coming here today will show that he might be able to do better in nikki haley's home state than she can, that he might have a path forward, that she doesn't have, given the base of voters that are supporting the two of them. of course, the governor's problem is also what kornacki pointed out in that map there in iowa, really setting the narrative for the rest of the states he's been trying to chip away at the former president's voters, which is also a difficult challenge and so what you have coming out of the first state to give us some results is this absolute dominance from former president trump, and these two other candidates still splitting the non-trump vote. this coalescing that everyone was waiting for still hasn't happened and now neither of them

have really a clear cut path that they have been articulating, been able to articulate going forward here, ana. >> speaking of nikki haley, ali, she called it a two-person race last night, despite she's in third place there. she is betting big as we were hearing on new hampshire. what are the stakes for her going forward? where does she see the path forward? >> reporter: look, we're in the live free or die state for nikki haley it is do or die. the reason she's calling it a two-person race, i wonder if we can bring the map back up of full iowa in red and one county in johnson county for nikki haley in darker red. that tells the story of how nikki haley is pitching the rest of this race. it is a fly in the soup kind of moment. if you look at that map. it is also nikki haley's reminder in a very literal sense that she wants to be the person who is standing toe to toe with trump. she is the only person who was able to take any county away from him, albeit by one vote, one vote is enough, though, to

turn that county a different color. and that is what nikki haley is betting on. it is why her campaign speech last night rang a little bit differently than it typically does. a lot of doing the same of equating donald trump and joe biden, it is also why she's running ads like this one on the air here in new hampshire. watch. >> the two most disliked politicians in america? trump and biden. both are consumed by chaos, negativity and grievances of the past. the better choice for a better america? nikki haley. >> i have a different style and approach. >> reporter: look, this ad does a few different things, of course. there is the literal thing that you're seeing on the screen, which is that you have two older white men and then nikki haley comes on the screen as a younger iteration. that underscores what she said for a long time about a new generation of leadership. but the idea that she is continuing this refrain of trump

and biden, biden and trump, she is starting to put that in the minds of voters. it is new, it is subtle. i know this is not a race that often functions on subtlety and i think that's a lost art in the trump era. nevertheless, it is the messaging she's coming into new hampshire with, it is the messaging she left iowa with. and this is a state where contrary to iowa where her team said, hey, look, if we come in second, it is great, because it allows us to knock ron desantis out. if we come in a close third, that's okay, it reinforces the status quo and all of our eggs weren't in the same basket anyway, that's different in new hampshire, it is clear they like the map a lot better, they're seeing polls they feel better about. and they're also willing to go all in on this idea that it is a two-person race, despite the fact that i think dasha and ron desantis reporting would bear out within the desantis campaign they have a different feeling about this being a two-person race. that's how nikki haley is rolling into the granite state. >> ali vitali, dasha burns, vaughn hillyard, steve kornacki,

it was a late night and it is cold where a lot of you are and it is just the beginning. when we're back in 60 seconds, two iowa political experts are going to join us to break down donald trump's dominance in the caucuses. >> we'll also focus more on new hampshire. how is the voting landscape in that state different from iowa? >> and we're continuing to follow what's happening in a new york courtroom this morning, trump arriving just a short time ago for the start of the second defamation trial involving e. jean carroll. >> and later, bone chilling cold affecting millions across the country. temperatures could plunge as low as minus 30. >> that is cold. stay with us. you're watching special live coverage right here on msnbc. you're watching special live coverage right here on msnbc nursing for 24 years. as you get older, your brain slows down and i had a fear that i wouldn't be able to keep up. i heard about prevagen from a friend. i read the clinical study on it and it had good reviews. i've been taking prevagen now for five years

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county day after day, donal trump sailed to victory in iowa with help from just about every identifiable voting bloc. >> some groups truly carry the weight. more than 50% of evangelicals broke for trump. nearly 70% of iowans without a college degree. around 60% of those who identify as very conservative. 60% of seniors. despite nikki haley's push for independent voters, trump had more than 40% of them in his pocket. >> let's dig deeper with joanne salzer. trump got more than 50% of support from iowa's caucusgoers. beat his next closest competitor by 30 points. what message did iowa send? >> we went into this race with this looming question hanging over the field and that was whether the republican party --

this began after the 2022 midterms when donald trump endorsed candidates that failed. it follows the january 6th riots at the u.s. capitol. there was a weakness around donald trump. iowa republicans told us they were interested in looking at some of these other candidates. but after months and months of campaigning, you know, ron desantis, nikki haley, vivek ramaswamy, they all put time in on the ground, invested money in the state and couldn't get there. i think, you know, donald trump's 30-point victory is more than double the previous record set by bob dole. his 12-point victory. so, really donald trump matched two victories last night. he won overall and his competitors remained fractured. the field has not unified. it has not coalesced behind a trump alternative. >> and entrance polling shows the economy and immigration, those two issues are top of all of the list. why is immigration one of the top issues in iowa?

>> well, iowa farms depend on a lot of immigrant labor and it is very active thing going on there. and the -- what is happening at the border, which is stalling, things on both sides in terms of the ability to get legal immigrants into the country, and then dealing with the consequences of illegal immigration, it just makes sense that that would resonate here. >> breeann, evan yell cal vot s were unmoved by the counts against trump. that was motivation for them based on what we're hearing. >> the cool thing about trump, he recognized jerusalem as the capital of israel and put supreme court justices in place that honestly saved abortion. god i think is picking trump for some great work in our day. >> trump lost the evangelical

vote to ted cruz last time. trump dominated. why? >> i think you heard it from that iowa republican right there. in his presidency, donald trump did a lot of things that freely appealed to this group. he paved the way for the overturning of roe v. wade with his appointments to the u.s. supreme court, and that goes ai long way with them for the volcks who said he's done what he said he wanted to do. we heard that over and over throughout the course of this campaign. but i think what also helped donald trump is that for the first time in a long time, the evangelical vote was not unified behind an alternative. we saw a fractured field that benefited donald trump in ted cruz's victory, rick santorum, mike huckabee, the evangelical field unified behind those candidates and helped push them over the finish line and we did not see that last night. >> desantis touted his ground game, spent millions there, his

endorsement, he said he would win iowa, yet he barely squeezed out a very distant second. what happened for him? >> i think what -- it hadn't been as clear to me as it is now, donald trump asked iowa voters to vote for him and support him three times. first time was the caucus in 2016, the second time was for the general election in 2016, and then again in 2020. so, he had a natural head start in terms of already having people who had cast votes for him. and desantis had never campaigned in iowa. so, both he and nikki haley were starting from nothing and everything that they had to build, they had to build starting fresh. and donald trump held a natural advantage there and i give credit also to a superior organization, the campaign strategy, that really delivered those folks. >> thank you, both, so much for

your analysis. we appreciate your time. donald trump is just arriving this morning for the start of his defamation trial in new york. why e. jean carroll is asking for more money this time. >> and later, balancing trials and the trail, what he's doing to prepare for the next gop primary contest. >> you're watching special live coverage on msnbc. y contest. >> you're watching special live coverage on msnbc. so dad grabben to soothe her with ease. puffs plus lotion is gentle on sensitive skin and locks in moisture to provide soothing relief. a nose in need deserves puffs indeed. america's #1 lotion tissue.

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we're back with breaking news this morning in new york city, where another trump legal battle is just beginning. the former president arrived a short time ago for the first day in his second defamation trial, brought by writer e. jean carroll. >> this comes less than a year after a jury found trump liable. unlike the last one, this trial will focus just on damages for defamatory remarks trump made during and after his presidency. >> nbc's yasmin vossoughian joins us from the courthouse. also with us state attorney for palm beach county, dave aronberg. let's start there. at the courthouse, with yasmin. walk us through this trial and how it is different from the first one. >> reporter: guys, i want to tell you, i'm having problems hearing you, just to let you know because i think the weather. but iowa has certainly come to

new york city to say the least. the former president may have won in iowa last night, but he's already lost here. and i'll tell you why. this is a defamation trial, right? this is not about relitigating the trial that happened in 2023. this is about defaming e. jean carroll after the article came out in 2019. this is about a number. the jury has to figure out how much the former president needs to pay e. jean carroll for defaming her as he's continued to do so. i'm looking at my phone continuously because we're getting notes from inside the courtroom, adam reese and lisa rubin is inside the courtroom right now. i'm told the former president is inside the courtroom with e. jean carroll as well. e. jean carroll is two rows in front of the former president. there is a back and forth with the attorneys asking for the case to be delayed because of melania trump's passing of her mother and the funeral is being held on tuesday.

it is going to take three days or so. the former president could testify on monday if all goes according to plan. whether or not that happens, though, is really in question because, again, judge kaplan reiterated over and over again, this is not about relitigating those sexual assault claims that were made by e. jean carroll. that was already carried out in 2023 with that trial. so, as i'm taking a look at the notes here, i'm being told the jury is being brought in slowly because this is now about jury selection. and then opening statements will go on later on this morning as well. this is just a stop really for the former president after taking iowa last night, where he will go on to new hampshire later this evening after being here in this new york city courtroom, guys. >> dave, trump's attending the trial for a little bit. but will he testify this time? he didn't the first time. he did in the civil fraud trial. and he's teased he wants to in this trial, he said something like he wants the jury to find

out who the hell she is, that's what the former president said. do you see any benefit to him testifying in this trial and what would his attorneys tell him? >> well, tacopina, his previous attorney, no longer his attorney said no, don't testify. he's not there anymore. his new attorney alina habba may say go for it. it would be a big mistake. he's limited to what he could say. he can't relitigate the case that happened already. he can't attack e. jean carroll. the judge will shut him down. he may think this is going to be like it was in the new york civil fraud case where he got up and lashed out against the judge and everyone else, judge kaplan is a federal judge. he's not going to put up with any shenanigans and unlike the new york civil fraud trial, this is a jury trial. this judge, judge kaplan is going to be very careful not to let the jury hear any extraneous stuff. no, i don't think he testifies, if he does, it is a mistake. >> what we're hearing in a filing by his lawyers, he wants to testify about his state of mind when he made the comments

about croll and also he plans to discuss, i'm quoting here, quote, miss carroll's continuous parade of interviews when she first went public. what do you think about that plan? >> i think we have to draw a distinction between what is legal strategy here and what is political strategy here. if you look at his civil case in new york, what he was looking for there by standing up, i think he was playing to a different jury. he was not concerned about what was happening in the court and he was concerned about the public reporting, i think his parallel strategy. i think here the reason why he may attempt to testify or attempt to stand up in court and have something is because of the reporting that comes after it. not because it makes legal sense here. it doesn't make legal sense here. practically, like the way he had in his other civil case, he's lost already. we're talking about numbers here. if you're the former president, i think as a lawyer, you don't testify. but he may be deciding that any kind of punitive damages or

damages for the defamation, that might be worth it for his other end goal here, which is political. >> or maybe he thinks what do i have to lose. >> but -- if you look a little bit at what he said, immediately after the ruling, in 2023, carroll amended her case to include comments the former president made abouthe first verdict and tn hall at cnn he said he doesn't know her, called her fake and her a whack job. he's still talking about her online with the "new york times" reporting he recently attacked carroll more than 40 times in a single day on truth social. just this morning he called the case fake and said he never met her on truth social. so, what is his strategy, if you look at what he has said, and it seems like there is a, you know, different opinion depending on the day. >> i think, you know, i can't get into his mind, but if i have to guess, i'm questioning whether he wants a large number against him. some large damages that if he's going to put himself as the

victim, what that looks like is for him to be persecuted. because there is no way, if you were in his position, you with looking to avoid liability or limit civil exposure you would be doing what he's doing. i just saw that his truth social account is currently attacking her. so i think what he's looking for is a response, the same way in his civil case, there was one fact finder, the judge, and he was attacking the judge, attacking the judge's wife, attacking the judge's law clerk. and that only makes sense if you're trying to invoke a response here as opposed to limit your liability. >> there is a jury in this case. it is not just a judge deciding his fate here, but, remember, last time around there was a jury in the first defamation trial, they awarded him $5 million in damages, e. jean carroll's asking for more in this particular trial. she's going for at least $10 million, explaining that she feels that she was hurt more for the comments he made as president, versus after president. but how strong do you think the case is for her, dave?

do you think it warrants more money? >> yes. it is one thing to attack her when you're a private citizen, it is another thing while you are the president of the united states, and the more he keeps attacking her, even just now on his social media site, the higher the punitive damages i think will be. because it shows his mindset, he's not repentant, still angry and still doing it even though a jury told him not to anymore. and the only way he's going to stop this conduct is if he gets hit by a huge amount of punitive damages or it hits him at the ballot box. so far, neither has happened. >> yasmin vossoughian, thank you so very much for being with us this morning. meanwhile, a washington state court will soon hear another case involving donald trump's political future. and this year's election. today, the superior court will consider a motion to remove trump from that state's 2024 ballot for his role in the january 6th attacks on the cap

itol. today's hearing is just the latest. so far two states, colorado and maine removed him from the ballot. but the decisions are on hold, awaiting appeals. >> next, all eyes on new hampshire, the mad scramble as the remaining gop candidates race to the next primary battle. >> is it donald trump's race to lose? is a second place finish for nikki haley a win? is there a candidate writing off his chances there? we'll dig into the questions. you're watching special coverage on msnbc. questions you're watching special coverage on msnbc from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help. it's the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and prevent, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. [ tense music ] one aleve works all day so i can keep working my magic.

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not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives

of banks, big pharma, even top administration officials. katie porter. never taken corporate pac money - never will. leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks” that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message. this election is a choice between results or just rhetoric. californians deserve a senator who is going to deliver for them every day and not just talk a good game. adam schiff. he held a dangerous president accountable. he also helped lower drug costs, bring good jobs back home, and build affordable housing. now he's running for the senate. our economy, our democracy, our planet. this is why we fight. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message.

welcome back. as the snow settles in iowa, the center of gravity in gop primary politics is shifting to new hampshire, where that primary's just one week away. >> while donald trump looks to build on his record-setting victory in iowa, nikki haley has her eyes on the granite state, promising new leadership and hoping to make inroads with voters. ron desantis who is in south carolina, slamming haley, his closest competition, on her own turf. take a listen. >> about half the voters wanted someone other than donald trump. we know that. and i obviously, of course, nick nicky's own campaign, she really was relying on nonrepublicans for her vote support. you can't rely on nonrepublicans to win a republican nomination,

but especially against donald trump. how are you going to be able to compete in that situation? >> joining us now, from a chilly manchester, new hampshire, is nbc's shaquille brewster. shaq, desantis came in a distant second in iowa. he went straight to south carolina, which may indicate his thinking for the new hampshire primary. which candidates have more to win or to lose where you are and how are voters in new hampshire different from iowa? >> reporter: hi there, well, yes, when the candidates arrive here in new hampshire, they're going to be facing a different electorate, a different group of voters here in new hampshire. and we're talking about a group of voters that is less conservative. you have fewer evangelical voters here and you have the presence of the large population of those undeclared or independent voters here in new hampshire. all that makes for more fertile ground for nikki haley. you asked who has more to gain or lose, i think you look at the candidates of the remaining candidates, the person who has been here the most, who had most

events here, you look at nikki haley. she is investing heavily in this state. and based on some of the conversations i've been having with voters this morning, it shows that for some of them, that investment at this point is working. listen here. >> who are you leaning toward? >> i'm leaning toward nikki haley. >> why nikki haley? >> i think she's our best candidate right now. i think she has momentum. and i think she could win the state here. >> you're not going to support donald trump here in new hampshire. what do you think about the fact that he won iowa so convincingly? >> i still don't think that's a big surprise. he was leading going in. he maintained that. >> any chance you support the former president? >> no. >> why not? >> i don't like him. i don't like the way he conducted his presidency. and i just don't think he's a good viable candidate. >> reporter: now, you hear even one of the voters mention this idea of momentum. and that's what this early

primary process is all about. trump's dominance in iowa now means that the question is can anyone beat him? can anyone take him down? he still has the lead in polling here in new hampshir but this is one of those states where he has looked the most vulnerable out of those early primary and caucus states. d that's why you have these candidates focused on new hampshire, former president trump is taking this state seriously. he has five events between today and this weekend. nikki haley has events starting this afternoon. ron desantis after going to south carolina will be making his way here to new hampshire. so all of these candidates say new hampshire is important, but if you look at the polling, it looks as if it anyone is to challenge, truly challenge donald trump, and tap into that era of inevitability he has after last night, it would be nikki haley. so she has something to prove over the next week. >> i'm wondering, because when you look at the pattern of how they are campaigning, and clearly, you know, you had ron

desantis, went to all 99 counties in iowa, and didn't do as well as maybe he expected, in new hampshire, and we just saw a graphic of that, trump only had seven events so far. haley had 46. you know, desantis 43. it seems like that hasn't really had an impact in iowa. do you think there is anything that in new hampshire could lead to a further waning of the field going forward? >> reporter: i think if nikki haley doesn't have a strong performance here. she has been very clear that this is where she believes she can have the most success. you heard her last night call this a two-person race. she's trying to ignore ron desantis who got second place last night in iowa. few things to watch in the next coming days. we have those debates coming up. ron desantis agreed to be on the debate stage. wmur debate, a traditional new hampshire debate.

and a cable television debate later this weekend. nikki haley said i'm only going on a debate stage if i see joe biden or donald trump. she is trying to look ahead and set this as a two-person race, but you have ron desantis saying not so fast, he believes he can do something to stop any momentum that she believes she got out of iowa, and really stop any success that she believes she can have here in new hampshire. >> we will watch to see if there is a debate at all. shaquille brewster, thank you so much. >> i want to bring in robert gibbs, former white house press secretary for president obama, who served on his campaign and republican strategist for tyler who served on ted cruz's 2016 campaign. your candidate won iowa last time around. what did you see going in last night and how what happened last night in 2024 different than when you were there in 2016? >> well, i think that the trump campaign was far more organized than they were. ron desantis i think beat some

expectations. he was -- he had the cruz organizational team and that allowed him to place in second. i think nikki haley suffered a setback. and anybody who doesn't support trump suffers a huge setback because she's not able to say it is a two-person race. if she had come in second, she could say that. now she has to outperform in new hampshire to have any case of going forward. i don't think desantis has any theory of getting the nomination. i think nikki has a slim theory of getting the nomination. >> robert, i wonder if you agree and from a campaign insider perspective, talk about the shift from iowa to new hampshire. the winner from iowa hasn't always gone on to win the nomination. they also never have won 30 points over the other contenders. >> yeah. look, i do agree with rick. and i agree with what shaq was reporting. you got an electorate that is

less conservative. this far less evangelical, that is made up of independent undeclared voters. look i the challenge for nikki haley is if she can't win in new hampshire, where can she win? you cannot win the nomination to the republican party or the democratic party, finishing second and third. or third and second. it just doesn't -- the math, delegate math doesn't add up. the reality for nikki haley or ron desantis or anybody else in the republican race is the states after new hampshire, starting with nevada and south carolina, and super tuesday, look a whole lot more like iowa than they will like new hampshire. so if nikki haley can't win in a week in new hampshire, then we're really forestalling just the inevitable of donald trump being the runaway nominee here. i think nikki haley had as bad a night as you could have finishing in third. no evidence in the entrance polls, no evidence in those entrance polls that there was any sort of nikki haley surge.

and ron desantis blunted some of that momentum coming out of here. i think a real challenge for her with a week to go in new hampshire. >> so, rick, if that's the prevailing thought, is it pretty much a done deal? what needs to happen, what could happen for something to change that trajectory, which seems to be donald trump is pretty much the candidate for the republicans. what needs to change and what could change? >> she has to turn around this week and that's going to be a really high task, because she refused, as ron desantis has, to challenge -- to run against trump. she continues to support trump. robert mentioned far less evangelical, almost not at all, but it is an economic conservative state and she can talk about donald trump presided over the largest government to history to that date. it has grown since. but it was still the largest

government. he implemented huge tax increases in the form of tariffs, you may not want to say tariffs, but he presided over tax increases and he lost 5 million jobs. and gave over the country to fauci who ran the government, managing covid for a year, which caused many companies to lose their businesses, potentially small business, and she can hammer him on that, but let's see if she does. >> robert, you worked with then vp joe biden in the obama administration. and more than 60% of iowa gop caucusgoers said they didn't believe biden was legitimately elected in 2020. what is your reaction to that? what does that tell you about this electorate? >> you know, i saw that last night. and i try to tell myself not to be surprised because we have seen some of that before. but it still does sort of stun you. look, i -- you know, i'm not surprised and it gives you a sense in some ways of how strong

donald trump is inside of the republican party. how much he's recast the entire party in his image. he's told them for four years, joe biden didn't win, and two-thirds of them believe it, again, that shows you the base. if you're joe biden, you take heart, another entrance polling number which shows that 32%, a third of republican voters, don't think donald trump can be president if he's convicted of a crime. so, there is your swing voters that joe biden has to and needs to talk to, but the numbers are, again, are fairly stunning, even if we have seen similar numbers in the past. >> and, robert, for the voters, that went to the -- to caucus yesterday, the republicans, immigration was the number one issue. and the entrance polling, it was tied with the economy. but immigration and it seems as though every voter, every state, every place has a different definition of what immigration is. is it migration? is it the border crisis?

is it asylum? how do you see that playing out? >> yeah, it is a great question. and, look, you know, even -- new hampshire is in a southern border state, but it is a northern border state. so it is going to be something that will be top of mind. i have a feeling that it is much more the republican primary about closing the border than it is about a sensible migration policy. even if some of that may seem like it overlaps. but one thing i would say about new hampshire broadly is, you know, it is going to take the measure of candidates. it sets itself apart from iowa by a week. in order for those candidates to come in and really talk to those voters. look, i remember two days out in 2008, we got a poll that said -- that obama was ten points up, we lost new hampshire. so new hampshire has a way of turning conventional wisdom and turning what happened in iowa on its head.

the challenge for nikki haley will be figuring out if she can accomplish that. >> i think the other thing we all learned at least during the trump years was to always expect the unexpected. thank you, gentlemen. i appreciate you joining us today. great to have you with us. >> update from the courtroom. plus, snow and a deep freeze affecting close to 100 million americans. we'll have the forecast on where the brutal cold is heading next. stay with us. where the brutal cold is heading next. stay with us we actually have reinvented ocean voyages, designing all-inclusive experiences for the thinking person. viking - voted world's best by both travel + leisure and condé nast traveler. learn more at viking.com. ♪ jitterbug! ♪ [ giggles loudly ] ♪ jitterbug! ♪ [ giggles loudly ]

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time, but it's warm in the courtroom. when it comes to notes, some motions were filed here by the former president's attorneys here. he says the court has no jurisdiction in the case, and it was overruled and should be held until that is determined while the findings of the previous case go forward. that was overruled. habba arguing the ruling in the last 72 hours stripped the defense, and overload. let me read you this detail here, guys, because i thought it was interesting. perspective jurors are coming in and filling the rows of the gallery, and they do not know who the defendant is, even as they pass the defense table. they are in for quite a surprise. they don't know the case they could be chosen for is for the president of the united states versus e. jean carroll, for

upwards of $10 million in damages. the defense said it would take about two days, and we are looking at three to five days total. if judge kaplan allows him to testify, we are looking at monday for that testimony. >> thank you so much from new york city. we are staying on top of more breaking news this morning. a bombardment of bitter winter weather. >> a deadly arctic blast bringing chilling cold to millions across the country. >> angie is tracking the weather for us. >> people are in for a bit of a mess, a wintry mess, something we have not had to deal with so far this season, and we have the snow in the east, in new england and the wintry mix that moved into portions of the mid-atlantic. we picked up an inch in a

calendar day in new york city, and you can see 1.4 inches of snow so far, and philadelphia also breaking that snow drought in baltimore and d.c., and not quite for folks in richmond. that drought will continue for folks there. it was in 2022 when we saw the same occurrence, and in new york it took us over 700 days. we will see the snow wrap up across the northeast, but look what happens across parts of the lakes, the snow bands will stick with us, not just today but into thursday we will be blustery and bitter cold. 133 million people right now under these winter alerts with temperatures bottoming out below zero and feeling colder in a lot of spots.

st. louis, 16 degrees. 3 degrees for chicago. minneapolis tops out at 6 degrees. those are actual temperatures, and when you add in the windchill it's sub zero temperatures for your feels like. we see minor improvements across the midwest and northeast, and we are stuck in the freezer for the extended period. it stretches as far south as nashville and memphis. those temperatures running 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. >> thank you so much. much more in our next hour of coverage, including the collision between the campaign trail and courtrooms for donald trump, how the primary calendar and legal battles stack up. plus, we will have more updates from the courtroom from e. jean carroll's defamation trial. we're back with msnbc's special coverage. l coverage

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good morning. it's 11:00 a.m. eastern, 8:00 a.m. pacific. i am josé diaz-balart along with my dear colleague, ana, for a second hour of the election coverage. >> the next battle is new hampshire that has its primary one week from today. ron desantis, nikki haley heading there today, and things are about to heat up. first, donald trump is