some folks. but it's not going to make a difference. she will be out by south carolina. >> gotta leave it there. get ready. it's going to be a wild ride. >> indeed. for everyone. that's it for us today. thank you for being with us. >> thank you for the privilege of your time. andrea mitchell picks up with more special election coverage right now. right now on "andrea mitchell reports," former president trump crushes his challengers in an iowa caucus landslide. two-thirds of the voters agreeing with his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen and willing to make him president again, even if he is convicted. mr. trump today detouring to new york city to appear voluntarily in court for jury selection at his second civil defamation case from writer e. jean carroll. a strategy that only enhanced his political strength since his

first indictment last march. this hour, reality check for ron desantis and nikki haley, after they finished far behind mr. trump in iowa. the new hampshire primary just a week from today. trouble spots overseas, that could impact the 2024 campaign. iran hits new targets inside iraq. the iran-backed houthis show no sign of backing down notice red sea, despite u.s. attacks against their facilities in yemen. ♪♪ good day, everyone. i'm andrea mitchell with the government and schools closed here in washington, but nothing compared to the weather -- or the avalanche of trump votes all but burying the former president's rivals in iowa, setting the stage for new hampshire's primary seven days from today. mr. trump is in a manhattan

courtroom at this hour showing up voluntarily for jury selection in a trial to decide damages in e. jean carroll's second defamation case. his strategy appears to be working. trump's support grew since last march. nearly two-thirds of all iowa voters said that they would support the former president returning to the oval office even if he is convicted on any of the 91 felony charges against him. that support helped mr. trump secure a historic win in iowa, where he swept nearly all 99 counts, with just one precinct vote for nikki haley preventing him from getting a clean sweep across the map. he dominated evangelicals, surpassing the goal of winning more than 50% of the electorate. in the critical race for second, ron desantis edged past nikki

haley, denying her added momentum heading into new hampshire where polls have her within striking distance of mr. trump. but by too small a margin to declare her the sole challenger. desantis declared he got his ticket punched out of iowa and is setting sights on south carolina, which has a large number of evangelical and conservative republicans if line -- in line with his positions. desantis criticized haley for having too many independent and moderate republican voters in an interview with nbc's dasha burns. >> you can't rely on non-republicans, but especially against donald trump. how are you going to compete in that situation? she cannot win south carolina because she doesn't have enough support amongst conservative voters. that's the reality of the situation. >> for her part, haley is declaring this a two-person race. with high expectations in the

more moderate new hampshire, she says she won't participate in any more primary debates unless donald trump, who ducked all debates so far, appears on the stage. we start with vaughn hillyard, who is in freezing cold des moines, and garrett haake, who made his way to a slightly warmer manchester, new hampshire. garrett, let's start with you. couldn't be more different there. what's the state of the race there? >> reporter: that's right. new hampshire, they say iowa picks core. they like to go their own way. polling in the state h swn a closer race. closer, of course, being relative here with donald trump still leading by double digits in many of the recent polls. it's clearly nikki haley in the strong second place here. it's not hard to see why. the electorate here in new hampshire i more moderate in a republican primary, especially one without a democratic contested primary on the other

side. you will have a lot of independents participating. a lot more highly educated voters. a lot fewer evangelicals as part of the electorate here in new hampshire. all of that in theory looks good for nikki haley on paper. yes, but, however, look back at 2016 when the exact same dynamics were in place and donald trump won this state by nearly 20 points. nikki haley has an opportunity here. the campaign here in new hampshire looks by all accounts like it will be more closely fought than iowa ultimately ended up being. the same dynamics are at place with an incumbent president in donald trump riding high off the big win in iowa, flying in for a rally here in proper new hampshire season. >> vaughn, let's talk about last night. the desantis campaign, they cried foul after the results were called before all the precinct halls wrapped up

caucuses. as you know better than anyone, when people walk into those halls, they are locked. voters can't change with a they're going to do. >> reporter: right. there was frustration last night that some precincts take longer than others. what happened last night was not onlyer answering questions at the entrance polls and media organizations were using those along with some of the early precincts and early results coming out of them to determine donald trump was well on his way to securing a iowa victory. that led to numerous organizations making the calls. we heard not only from our reporting team on the ground at several of the caucus sites but also from the desantis campaign, frustration that some folks were getting notification that donald trump had been declared the winner of iowa yet had yet to take part in their own local precinct caucus. this is part of the caucus process and part of the ever

developing technology and the frustrations that come with both of those. for donald trump, clearly though, he was well on his way to victory despite any notifications that anybody was getting on their phone here. you could say that donald trump effectively harvested much of the field here this fall and last night froze out haley and desantis. listen to him on stage. >> we want to come together, whether it's republican or democrat or liberal or conservative, it would be so nice if we could come together and straighten out the world and straighten out the problems. >> reporter: donald trump seemingly planting the seeds of the gop all coming together. clearly nikki haley and ron desantis plan otherwise and continue to campaign ahead here. of course, we should not expect donald trump to keep that tone for many hours or days ahead here. >> garrett, it's no accident that donald trump is stopping in

a manhattan courthouse, even though he doesn't need to. it's clear that his support is only grown since last march with that first indictment in the bragg case. >> reporter: yeah. look, i think if you look back far enough, there was concern in donald trump's orbit the legal cases would create weight on him in the primary, at least make it more challenging to schedule the campaign they wanted. really neither of those things have come to fruition. donald trump has so thoroughly convinced at least it appears the majority of the republican primary electorate that the cases against him are election interference, are an effort by prosecutors and the department of justice or a private citizen to do what the electorate will not, which is to defeat him in this primary. he made it core to his messaging. it hasn't had a particularly negative affect on him in this primary. what will happen in a general election is anybody's guess. even the scheduling here, his campaign leaving iowa last

night, stopping over in new york city, and then headed up to new hampshire in time for an evening rally tonight. >> vaughn hillyard, garrett haake, thanks to both of you. let's go inside the numbers. coming up, steve kornacki joining me from the big board to break down what happened last night. what it means for new hampshire. that's next. we will be right back. don't go away. don't go away. here's to getting better with age. here's to beating these two every thursday. help fuel today with boost high protein, complete nutrition you need... ...without the stuff you don't. so, here's to now. boost. my frequent heartburn had me taking antacid after antacid all day long but with prilosec otc just one pill a day blocks heartburn for a full 24 hours. for one and done heartburn relief, prilosec otc. one pill a day, 24 hours, zero heartburn. when migraine strikes are the tradeoffs of treating worth it? ubrelvy is another option, it quickly eliminates migraine pain. do not take with strong cyp3a4 inhibitors.

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with the great graphic last night. that was the turning point. >> absolutely. i think this final result here of trump winning by 30 and coming literally one vote away from a 99 for 99 county sweep in iowa can maybe be in some ways politically credited to the legal situation. show you what we mean by that. this is the national polling average since the very beginning of this 2023 race -- 2024 race here. this is the beginning of 2023. if you remember 2023 started with donald trump looking like he was in political trouble within his own party. republicans had that bad midterm in 2022. the candidates closely aligned with and in many cases directly chosen by donald trump had cost the party a chance to win the u.s. senate and other major contests. this is trump. this is desantis. this was the average. it was about ten points at one point. there were polls that showed -- had desantis ahead of trump. that's why trump attracted all

of these opponents who had big funding, big organizations, because there was a sense republican voters really were ready to move on from him. you can just see it in this line graph. look what happens. right here, trump starts going up. desantis starts going down. nobody else moved above him. what happened right here? the timing is perfectly aligned with the first indictment of donald trump, that was by district attorney in manhattan, at the end of march of last year. look how the lines diverged. it seems clear that republican voters, the majority, regard the entire legal situation around trump as a politically motivated attempt by his enemies to use the legal system to keep him from regaining the presidency. essentially, the legal actions have generated a rally around trump affect among republican voters. it left him at the end of 2023,

start of 2024, in vastly better political position than he started 2023, before there were legal issues. >> i'm going to talk to andrew weissmann about that and other things later in the program. a lot of legal experts and political experts thought that was the weakest of the cases, and it was the worst decision by prosecutors to be going first. that's the way it all lined up. steve, when you have got nikki haley coming out and saying she consolidated the vote and it's a two-person race, her against donald trump, and desantis bragging he punched his ticket -- he was on life support given the way donors were fleeing from him. yet he campaigned there by moving to iowa, went to all 99 counties. donald trump swoops in and gets better than 50%. >> yeah. going back to that map here, again, you don't see any real

weakness for trump on this map here. the reason that desantis was able to edge out haley for second place is basically more of the small rural counties, more blue collar working class, lower concentration of college degrees, those are places -- trump dominated them. give you some examples here. trump dominated in these counties. but desantis -- these are not huge numbers here. but there's a ton of counties like this around iowa. desantis was consistently getting second. haley was consistently getting third. it adds up, one county after another. dozens of counties like this. desantis built a big pad here over haley for second place. haley's support was more con concentrated in upper income, college degrees. even at that, she got disappointments here. a big one in polk county. this is es moines and the suburbs. she did well but lost out second

place to desantis. desantis beat her in all the rural areas. she did well but not well enough in the suburban areas to catch him for second place. the problem is you don't know where you go -- she goes to new hampshire and she does have a situation where she could potentially win. when you get past new hampshire, if you are not able to connect with voters in rural counties, counties without a lot of college degrees, increasingly that's the core of the republican party base in this trump era, and if they are turning on her the way they did in iowa, that's a problem, especially when you get past new hampshire. >> especially as you point out, as she moves south and gets closer to super tuesday. those voters are going to dominate, and donald trump is so well positioned for that. steve kornacki, thank you so much. get some rest. >> thank you. >> before new hampshire. what's next? is there a path to victory for haley or desantis against the

powerful trump machine? we will look at that, a deeper dive when "andrea mitchell reports" returns, only on msnbc. students... students of any age, from anywhere. students in a new kind of classroom. ♪ using our technology to power different ways of learning. ♪ harnessing ai to plant new beginnings. ♪ so when minds grow, opportunities follow.

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i think you've said enough. why don't we just switch to xfinity like everyone else? then you would know what year it was. i know what year it is. ♪♪ welcome back. the new hampshire republican primary is a week from today. things could get even uglier between donald trump and nikki haley in those days. the former south carolina governor is polling in second place in the live free or die

state and could do well with the independent voters, the non-declareds. team trump will go afterhaley's reputation and image. joining me now, formergovernor, kasich, donna edwards, and tim miller. john, you are the new hampshire veteran. how much of a threat, if at all, is nikki haley to donald trump in new hampshire or does he have the nomination nailed, barring some error? >> or some health issue or whatever. this was a tough night for nikki haley. the momentum she was hoping to get out of iowa has been dashed. she goes to new hampshire -- i

was talking to folks in new hampshire today. her support is sort of plateaued. she doesn't seem -- the trajectory stopped up there even before iowa. it's a challenge. can she get close? probably. then the issue is south carolina. she's way behind in her home state. marco rubio ran against trump in the primary. he dusted him. that was the end of rubio. he came to ohio. i beat trump by double digits in hawaii. does she want to go to south carolina? she's trailing badly. what happens if she doesn't do well? we know inevitability can go away like the snow in the spring. it can go away. right now, when you see the overwhelming type of victory he had across -- particularly among non-college educated people, but really across the board in iowa, it's pretty shocking and stunning.

>> do you see -- there were smoke signals the no labels people -- i know you know people in that world -- might be thinking about reaching out to nikki haley. could she drop out before south carolina to avoid a humiliating defeat in her home state? >> she's not -- i don't see that happening with no labels. the democrats are very worried about no labels. part of the problem they have, to be honest with you, is biden's vice president is not sending out signals to anybody that they are excited about her or happy about her or think if something happens to biden that she could be in a position or take over. she needs to elevate her game quickly. much of the focus is on, what do we do about no labels? you know what david axelrod said about joe bidn and his age.

it's going to be one of the ugliest presidential campaigns in american history. >> tim miller, the economy is as good as it has been in a long time. joe biden doesn't get any credit for it. donald trump keeps hammering away at the economy and somehow joe biden is not selling the message that unemployment is down, black unemployment is down, wages are up, inflation is down. barring some tragic escalation in the red sea, which is having an impact on oil prices, this may be a very good economic climate for an incumbent president. >> that's true. sometimes there are delayed reactions. the best case for joe biden is that there's a lag with people just getting used to the fact inflation has come down. maybe in the summer their feelings are different. the other lag is voters accepting the reality that donald trump is going to be the republican nominee. i think the big silver lining

for joe biden out of last night's caucus is the turnout in the iowa caucus was down huge. it was cold, granted. still, it was way down from 2016. it was down at 2000 levels. 56,000 less voters came out. even of those who came out, if you look at the nikki haley support, a lot of those voters said that they are looking around in the general election. a big portion of nikki haley's support came from people like john kasich and myself, anti-trumpers. the biden campaign could say maybe the energy for trump isn't the same as in 2016. maybe there's a group of republican suburban voters greater than 2020 that we can add to the fold. they will have to run an aggressive campaign against donald trump to do that. on a dark night for our democracy, donald trump winning in such a landslide, i thought that was a silver lining to look

at. >> donna edwards, speaking of a dark night for democracy. 66% of the caucus goers did not think joe biden is the president, that he legitimately won in 2020. according to the entrance polls, also, similar number, 65%, 66% said they would vote for him and think he should be this the oval office even if he is convicted in one of the four cases. what kind of challenge does that pose to president biden in the general election? >> look, i think the general election electorate is very different than the republican party. this is donald trump's republican party. they bought on to this idea. i think that joe biden is going to challenge that with the broader electorate where we actually see in a general election that voters actually do believe that he was legitimately elected in 2020. i also think that the biden campaign and harris campaign is

being very smart about where to deploy the president, where to deploy the vice president. young people seize on the issue abortion and democracy. those are going to be selling points, i think, for democrats going into the general election. i don't think democrats are going to be worried about a republican party that's pretty locked in to donald trump's mantra. they just have to turn out their vote. that's why i think you are going to see a very robust write-in campaign for joe biden in new hampshire, even though there's not really a democratic primary. >> the biden campaign has not blessed that at all. i think they probably, you know, are hoping that doesn't happen, that that's a distraction. john kasich, undeclared voters can vote in the new hampshire primary. does that mean that nikki haley absolutely -- this is the best

landscape she's going to have. she has to win something. second place isn't going to count. >> i think that's true. again, i talked to somebody this morning, as soon as iowa was over, and i said what's going on on the ground? he knows what's going on on the ground. he said, in the last week or so, she's kind of plateaued. maybe going up a little bit, but not at the trajectory she had. there's some misgivings up there, which he tells me that he does not believe that she will win. she could get within striking distance. but then, you have to go to south carolina. you have to go to super tuesday. it's a real challenge for her. she's going to fight it out until she feels as though she doesn't see any kind of an opening. just one other thing, andrea, that you mentioned. that is, i understand -- i read an interesting article. it's the way people feel when they go to the grocery store and

the price of eggs and milk. it's what's happening in the basket in the grocery basket more than what somebody on television says about how the economy is going. that's the challenge for him. it's got to get better for biden if he is going to win. >> john kasich, tim miller, donna edwards, thanks. why donald trump is showing up in a new york courtroom today on his way to new hampshire. that's next on "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc. i know e to perform through pain. if you're like me, one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help. it's the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and prevent, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt.

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donald trump is back in court in downtown manhattan today for jury selection in the damages phase of his civil defamation trial brought by writer e. jean carroll. mr. trump was found civilly responsible for sexually abusing carroll. this could result in donald trump having to pay tens of millions of dollars in damages. yasmin is at the courthouse. donald trump have to show up. but polling shows that he becomes more popular every time he makes a court appearance. this is actually a campaign stop. >> that's what it feels like, isn't it? from iowa, the win last night, to today here in new york city and then on to new hampshire after this. he did win iowa last night.

the truth is, he lost here already. he said he wants to win here, but he can't do that, because this is not about relitigating the trial that took place back in 2023. this is about defamation from 2019, an article in which e. jean car revealed the allegations she made against former president donald trump. she's asking for $10 million plus in punitive daniels. they are in a break. all morning it's beenbout jury selection. have you worked for donald trump? do you know who donald trump is? did you vote in 2016? did you vote in 2020? are you affiliated with a political party? what political party? one of the notes we got from adam reese in the courtroom talked about how the former president turned around a lot. he turned around a lot when questions were asked as to whether or not they believe the 2020 election was stolen. two jurors said yes. the former president turned around. do you follow donald trump on

social media? two said yes. donald trump turned around. will he, in fact, testify? a time line here, possibly monday for the former president to testify. >> thank you. joining us now is andrew weissmann, senior member of the mueller investigation. andrew, he is on the witness list -- the defense witness list they submitted today. is it smart for him to take the stand in this case? it's a jury case, as you know, not just the judge. how do you think that plays out with the manhattan jury? >> judge kaplan, at the request of e. jean carroll, has issued an order with respect to what donald trump could and could not say if he were to take the stand. as yasmin said, this is not about liability. this is a damages phase. he is not allowed to take the

stand and say, i didn't doit, i didn't either sexually assault or defame the plaintiff. why? because donald trump has already lost that. he had an opportunity to tigate that. a jury found that, in fact, he sexually assaulted e. jean carroll and defamed her. that is decided. it's unclear if donald trump wants to testify what he could say. for those people thinking that donald trump will ignore what judge kaplan had ruled, that really comes at his peril. judge kaplan is a very different federal judge than any of the judges who donald trump has faced so far. he is a no nonsense judge. that will really come at donald trump's peril here.

donald trump, even today, has been continuing to issue what i suspect e. jean carroll will say are continued defamatory tweets or truth socials. those will be a part of the case that e. jean carroll presents as to why she's entitled to punitive damages, very much like rudy giuliani making those out-of-court statements. those kinds of out-of-court statements and lies don't play well in court. it remains to be seen. but i think within the week, we will have the jury's determination here about the amount of damages. >> i was going to ask you that, whether what he said this morning, what he wrote this morning on truth social, could become part of the case. >> yep. >> as you pointed out, it can. i'm not going to ask you a political question. but in politics, we have seen just the trajectory of how his

popularity just grew and the widening of the gap. desantis went down. just last march, coinciding with the start of the bragg case, that first indictment. just asking you about the sequence of these cases. was it a mistake for bragg to go first? did that case and his ability to make light of it compared to the jack smith case and other cases that were more serious, was that a big mistake legally? it certainly was politically. >> you know, i don't know, andrea, whether we would be in the same position if it were the orgia case that went first or the jack s case that went first. i think all of those fed into two things, donald trump being very much the center of attention as the first former president to be indicted. that was going to happen no

matter which case went first. and regardless of which case went first, donald trump gets to play sort of this victimization card. if there is an irony that needs to be pointed out here, which is that he is playing the victim card. but in the case that we are watching today, that is starting today, a jury has determined that it is e. jean carroll who is the victim here, not just of defamation but of sexual assault. so there has been a finding of who is the victim here. >> really very interesting, a legal finding. it's just the damages, as you point out. andrew weissmann, as always, it's good to see you. thank you. . >> good to see you. a firefight. strikes inside iraq. you are watching "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc. type 2 diabetes? discover the ozempic® tri-zone.

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this just in. nbc news is learning from two defense officials that the u.s. military conducted another strike against the houthis targeting anti-ship missiles today. this as three armed drones were shot down today over an airport in northern iraq where u.s. and other forces are stationed, hours after iran filed ballistic missiles from iran, triggering explosions near the u.s. consulate and the u.s. military

facility in erbil. iran's revolutionary guard said it was fired in response to what it called terrorist crimes and it hit a major spy headquarters. no confirmation on that. joining us now, richard engel, who is in jerusalem, and retired lieutenant general twitty. welcome to both of you. richard -- first, let me ask the general about the military action. the strike the u.s. conducted against the houthis. so far, they don't seem to be getting the message, if this is meant to deter further actions. >> yeah, good to be with you. you are correct, they are not getting the message. when we conducted the first strike, when we had the coalition that conducted the strike with us, one or two

things could have happened. they could have received the message and put down their weapons. but this is what happened. they became emboldened. now what you see is an emboldened houthi force going after not just the commercial lanes, but trying to stand up to america and coalition partners such as the uk and others. we saw several chants in support of the houthis. i think they just emboldened, and they are going to continue to do this regardless of what we do. we just need to be prepared to go after the houthis in a pre-emptive manner. that's what you saw in these strikes here that occurred today with the u.s. striking these launchers. >> richard, there's so much going on in your region. take it away. i was going to ask you about the iranian missile attack.

the u.s. and israeli intelligence have been -- have concluded iran itself, the regime is not ordering the attacks and not looking for a bigger fight with the u.s. or israel, but is that still the case? the u.s. at least thinks that this strike came from the iranian revolutionary guard. >> reporter: so there's a coalition that calls itself the axis of resistance. i think it's a term that people should start being familiar with in the united states. it is a group of militant groups all backed by iran. they operate with a degree of autonomy. the united states is at war right now with this axis of resistance. most obviously, in gaza, because hamas is part of that. the u.s. is trying to deter hezbollah, which is also part of that. the houthis are part of that same axis, as are militant

groups in iraq and syria. you have a network of groups that sometimes coordinate, all backed by iran, all armed by iran, but have their degree of autonomy. i think the general is right, the houthis have made it clear, they have no intention of backing down, because we are now talking about them. they believe that they are on the side of justice. they believe that the united states, some european countries, others that are backing israel are wrong, that they have the moral cause on their side, defending the people of gaza, the palestinians, because they say that these attacks are in the name of the palestinians. we are now just coming to terms with the fact that the united states is going -- is at war with adversaries who are in a number of countries. it's immensely complex. when you combine all of these

groups together -- hezbollah, which so far has kept mostly quiet carrying out relatively low-level attacks against northern israel, is by far the strongest party. when we see this -- the houthis have the most strategic location, threatening shipping, sending cargo shipping rates skyrocketing around the world. but hezbollah is a different game. it's the best armed, non-governmental force in the world. we have not seen that part of this axis of resistance enter into the conflict yet. part of this access of resistance enter into the conflict yet. >> and, general, how concerning is it that this time, at least this one missile attack in erbil, came from iran proper, not a proxy? >> well, it is concerning, but let me just play on something

that richard said to answer your question. people think this is still a local war. i will tell you this has moved into a regional conflict now. if you think about the countries that are involved, you have iran involved, you iraq involved, you have syria involved, you have lebanon involved, and, of course, you have israel involved. and you have the united states and coalition partners involved. and so when we first started this journey, it was local, between hamas and israel and we are, in fact, in a regional conflict now. and how you deal with that as the u.s. and others to make sure that there is still space for israel to do what they need to do to destroy hamas, capture the hostages, and stop the missiles from raining down, that's going

to take some time. and so how much this expanse into total regional conflict, we have to watch out because we're no doubt in a regional conflict, how it expands is what we need to be concerned about. >> richard engel, thank you, appreciate it. the path to the white house, could the iowa results provide a road map for the trump campaign going forward? you're watching "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc. ard? you're watching "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc.

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for "usa today." thank you for being here. susan, what does donald trump's shift in tone last night, trying to move past the name calling but already on truth social he's going after nikki haley. what are we expecting from him going forward and let's say at the rally in new hampshire tonight? >> last night it was -- he was the candidate who already thought the republican party was coalescing behind him and he was the nominee. offering -- welcoming people, republicans in congress and elsewhere to endorse him now. that's not quite true yet. but he's pretty close to being the presumptive nominee. that doesn't mean he's going to be a different donald trump if, for instance, nikki haley doesn't endorse him, doesn't do well, doesn't endorse him, he still expects fealty from other republicans. but i thought it was an interesting turn in his general

manner last night. >> jonathan, ron desantis has both in florida and on the campaign trail focused on iowa, really styled himself as going to the right of donald trump on a lot of issues and certainly going after the evangelical vote, which could help him in south carolina and the rest of the south. but, you know, what else does he have to do to try to prove that he is an effective challenger if he could knock haley out and if she fell behind in new hampshire? >> i mean, time is certainly running out for governor desantis. he pretty much put all his chips on the table when it came to iowa. he visited all 99 counties. after each visit, he became less popular in each individual county. and, yes, he got second place last night and billed it as his ticket out of iowa, but it is a 30-point defeat. that's a -- there is no way to sugar coat that. that's a devastating defeat for governor desantis who poured so much into iowa.

he's barely playing in new hampshire. he'll spend a little time there this next week or so. he is going to try to make his final stand in south carolina. but if haley now emerges with a strong showing in that -- in new hampshire, i think she's got a win, a close defeat will do it, it becomes a two-person race. we're seeing from haley, she tried to frame it as a two-person race, saying she will not debate desantis, she'll only debate trump. trump, of course, rejects that. so, the race is not quite over. but the only way that can change and i don't think it is for desantis would be if haley can win new hampshire. what is clear right now is that it is donald trump's nomination to lose. >> and, but what if she were to win new hampshire, where she is well positioned with, you know, voters who can cross over, more moderate voters, she could get slammed in south carolina and have the humiliation of losing her home state, a much more conservative electorate, more

closely similar to iowa. >> if she wins new hampshire, that's huge. and it shakes things up. it makes people say, oh, somebody defeated donald trump who seems to have such a stranglehold on the republican party? but you're right. she has to win somewhere else and it will be especially embarrassing if he ends up shellac her in south carolina, her home state. that's not to diminish what a new hampshire victory would be like for her and we have seen in the past that a victory in new hampshire can give candidates momentum that carries them some distance to super tuesday on march 5th. >> and, jonathan, just quickly, did she peak too soon in iowa? >> she may have. and she was running a pretty flawless campaign up until the end, then a couple of significant stumbles, most notably about the cause of the civil war. she made a joke at iowa's expense that didn't land well. the path for haley is she would have to win and she gets a break

in the calendar, it is nearly a month on the republican side between new hampshire and south carolina and she would go as the underdog. could she have momentum? would desantis drop out? would it be a two-person race and would trump start to self-destruct after a loss? perhaps he would start committing errors and maybe they would be held against him. that's still a narrow path, but it is a path, a semblance of a path for haley, where it is hard to see desantis having one at all. >> thanks so much. susan page and jonathan lemire. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." remember, follow the show on social media at mitchell reports and you can rewatch the best parts of our show anytime on youtube now. go to msnbc.com/andrea. "chris jansing reports" starts right now. good day. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. well, it has become all but