it's been a wild cycle. after florida governor ron desantis, once the next great hope of the party not too long ago, won by 19 points in his own state. but he suspended his campaign

today and threw in his support for donald trump. here's donald trump talking about desantis's endorsement. >> i'd like to take the time to congratulate ron desantis and, of course, a really terrific person. ay as you know he left the campaign trail at 3:00 p.m. today. in doing so he was very gracious and endorsed me, so i appreciate it. >> gracious. weia don't hear that word a lot from donald trump, but he's trying to get everybody to support him. now the race is narrow, head-to-head between trump and haley. trump leads with independents. haley is 19 points behind trump overall. what b comes next? and how close are we in another head-to-head race between donald trumphe and joe biden.

joining me now are my guesti gu hanging with me. our resident floridian, former republican congressman david jolly anwho's going to welcome n desantis home with a big banner, we hear, he's back with us as well. let me start with you. you've done a fair amount of reporting on the republican primary. let me start with how this happened. what happened to governor desantis, the next hope for the republican party, raised $8 million in the first day, won by 19 points. the future, what happened? >> i mean, the future is not the future right now. that's what's really clear from this race. ron desantis entered with big, big hopes. ig, was in this very room with m not that many months ago and he was really seen as the person who could beat donald trump. what happened is he made a southeast of betting about what the republican electorate

wanted. the chief one was the soft supporters who kind of liked donald trump but weren't really sure they wanted him again, they were going to be open to ron desantis.on today we see those people went strongly back in donald trump's camp and the one group that didn't is the people who didn't want trump all along, and nikki haley is the person who took over that chunk of p the electorate. you have her and trump battling it out and desantis out altogether. >> thet alternative nikki hale. if nikki haley doesn't come close, it may be hard for her to stay in the race. what happens after this? even if she shocks everyone and wins new hampshire, what does that look like? >> going forward, february 24th, south carolina primary, you have voter block, the republican voter block in south carolina, looks an awful lot like iowa,

note new hampshire. the same thing with a lot of super tuesday days and georgia, again, reflects south carolina, the more conservative and evangelical vote. ifl she can't get close, it's hell's doom for her. >> llit's very tricky. nikki, it's very good for her to have a race. she's wanted it to be a race between her and donald trump. she's kind of having a fun endorser, judge judy. >> judge judy endorsed michael c bloomberg. then she saysha she held her no and voted for someone in the 2020 election and that if 2024 rolled around again, she would haveag ho hold her nose and probably vote for biden if you read behindou the lines. she has the same enthusiasm as

everyone who's voting for nikki haley dreads now come november. i thinkow we have a clip. let's play it. >> she believes what she says and she's focused and she's razor sharped, and neither of the n two people who this is -- this is going to be a two-person race. >> it is right now. >>is it is right now. >> i believe it's going to be a horse race between trump and joe biden, trump is going to be president, and i think that's not a good place for america. >> what happens if in 2024 you end up in the same place as 2020? you can't beat trump? >> what do you do. >> this is television. >> the holding of the nose.

the drama of it all. >> i met those voters. there she is. she's struggled with what a lot ofle voters are struggling with. they don't want to end up in the same redux of 2020, biden versus trump. >> while we've been sitting here, she has some new reporting we haven't heard yet about what's happening. >> i'm sorry if the cameras have furiously caught me typing on my laptop as i'm trying to get this finalized here. i've been working with my colleagues on a story to try to sort of unpack what's been happening between behind the scenes of the campaign because frankly a lot of us were taken a little by surprise. all of us saw the writing on the wall that the past wasn't there. this guy, i've been following him for the last many, many months here. he is a fighter. he really wanted to hang on. he wanted that battle where he

thought there was a stronger base ofgh support for him than like inpp a state of new hampshire. him calling it today sort of ay suddenly, you know, how did that happen? so what we learned from at least one close f adviser is that in that hour in new hampshire he started to have a conversation with his close advisers what happens next. he started to ask, how do we do this, basically deliberating what the path forward was, and by thursday this person put to me the information gaps were closed, they said. he had gotten all of the information he needed to get. but he decided to do one more round of going out there and talking to the voters. he stillg wanted to go to sout

carolina, he wanted to go to new hampshire just to have that experience again. so they were all sort of waiting with bated breath to see what he would come back with. and he came back from the event from south carolinath on saturd night, came back to tallahassee, instead of staying in south carolina, instead of staying in new hampshire, went home, called some of his close inner circle -- >> this is just last night. >> this is just last night. we've been on set for 24 hours. he called folks early this morning toea the mansion for a final round of discussions, then he and the first lady went upstairs, had a conversation and came townd with their final decision. they had made some notes that eventually went into the video we all saw today making that announcement, and there was, according to three sources familiar withto the thinking, pretty widespread agreement about the trump endorsement. >> that he should drop out. >> if he was going to do it, he

should make clear he's endorsing former president trump. >> so it sounds like a lot happened over the last 24 hours. he had to do his own reporting. it's so interesting to hear how this happened. we also know he canceled an appearance on "meet the press." he was supposed to have a rally in new hampshire tonight, so this answers a lot. >> hewe likes to look at data, absorb as much information as he possibly could. i think once he started to get that feeling after iowa did not turn out the way he thought it would, he started to information source and in the end came out with this decision. >> dasha, you've been reporting 24 hours day as has ali. ron, let me ask you. the fact that there was this deliberation, that he wanted to go back to south carolina, that

he decidedou with his wife last night, does any of that surprise you or does it sound in line with how he makes decisions? >> i'm so close to this, i'm going to talk on hunches, not actual reported material like ali andep dasha. i woke up this morning and thought today's the day desantis strategists talk to trump strategisttes and probably will drop out. probably wanted to avoid the embarrassment. he was going to suffer raw humiliation. but here's the hunch and a little bit of tell. as the campaign wasn't going so well about six months ago, ron desantis brought on a fairly florida republican establishment strategist that was formerly one of my strategists. when i left the party, he stayed. he's a career strategist, but one of the topar in the game, a

desantis brought him on to see whatnt he could do to fix this. here's the hunch. this strategist was the one in n '15 and '16 whelp i was a sitting member running for senateme opposing donald trump d never came around to support donald trump, we shared a ticket together, he said to s me, look you've got a short leash here because you're not only going to lose this race, but if you queen upholding donald trump, you're not going to be viable two years from now. i believe the strategist had this conversation with the florida governor and said, you're not ohm at risk at losing '24, you'll lose it at '28, and you have to look at that if you and casey plan to run again. >> one of the many questions, what happens now? ron desantis has to repair some of his relationships in florida. maybe he runs for senate. does he go out and campaign with donald trump? does he help him? it seems he was a little under

duress in that video. what do you hear from that reporting? >> he actually diagnosed the situation pretty clearly himself last week. he said, if you say negative about donald trump, he's going to trash you. if you say good things about donald trump, he's going to say nice things about you. he said, look, i'm not using a nickname anymore. if he's going to say nice things about me, i'm going to say nice things up up him. that said, trump was pretty clear. he felt he was disloyal this year. if that's the relationship, it's going to takee a longer time t repair. if you'reim ron desantis, you s the first step. make nice with the former president, potential future president. look, if he wants to run any time in the future, he's going to be aligned with the trump wing of the trump party.

>> shane, thanks so much for stopping by. i really appreciate it. we have much more to get to in this hour. just how slim is nikki haley's path to the nomination? will he show up tomorrow? our live coverage continues in new hampshire right after a quick break. e continues in new hampshire right after a quick break. using golo was truly transformative. it was easy, and inexpensive.

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and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. nikki haley got a rousing round of applause from her supporters minutes after news of ron desantis dropping from the races. >> we just learned that ron desantis has dropped out of the race. [ cheers and applause ] >> and i want to say to ron he ran a great race, he's been a good governor, and we wish him well.

having said that, it's now one fellow and one lady yet. >> even with desantis out of the race, haley knows she still faces a tough path to the nomination, a very tough path, even if she were to pull off a win in new hampshire. that's a big if because donald trump is leading haley by 19 points in the latest new hampshire tracking poll. keep in mind, this is the state that's supposed to be the friendliest terrain for an alternative. she would have to pull off a big surprise in her home state of south carolina after that, which could be even better terrain for donald trump. it would be hard to stay in a race that she once led. my guests are all back with me. let me start with you. you went to the haley event tonight. there seemed like there was a little pep in her step there. she's got to try to get some of these desantis supporters.

what did you hear in that rally and what did you hear from the campaign. >> they were looking for a new jolt. there was a pep in her step. i was there when desantis dropped out of the race. there was a huge crowd of enthusiastic supporters there. but there's a big question whether desantis supporters will be given to her. there's a big question. not only did he endorse donald trump, but he's more aligned, more mainstream, more middle of the road conservatives and even some democrats who are backing nikki haley could also be a double-edged sword for her. of course, we heard donald trump say she's being backed by democrats and other fake republicans, and that could be used down the road against her. >> donald trump is ahead by 19 points. crazy things happen.

believe me. i worked for barack obama. crazy things happen. if she loses to donald trump or let's say she loses by more than 15 points, what does that look like? what are the discussions like within the haley campaign right now? >> let's play the david jolly game of hupp. s and tells. a moment ago you had christopher say she was going to do really well. i said what does that look like going past here? she said, my goal was to do well in iowa, do better in new hampshire, and do better than that in south carolina. that's fine, but better is not first as we talked about earlier today, and i don't know how you get the nomination without winning a state. frankly i'm having a little redux to 2020 when i would ask elizabeth warren, a, what happens if you lose your home state because there's such

sensitivity around that. i sense that with my haley sources all the time. also, how do you stay in on just a delicate strategy alone? i've had these conversations before. >> winner take all. >> i don't have hunches and tells here, but i do have reportings from a trip i went on in south carolina with my colleagues. >> we love reportings too. we like both. >> we like them all. we drove all around the state and talked to voters in all of the different areas of south carolina and i have to tell you it is trump country. nikki haley's home turf is trump country. since she left the office of the governor there, it's become redder, more conservative, and trump has prout out so many more voters that weren't even engaged when nikki haley was in office. as soon as i spent time there, i was like, my goodness, she's going to have a very, very hard time in south carolina. it's a look of the calendar.

the fact that it is so soon and next on the docket here, it's her home state, and the numbers there are just -- that's not her base. >> not at all. it's more like the iowa electric than the new hampshire electorate. nikki haley, let's say she doesn't do well in high pressure or she makes it farther. at some point you do think she endorses donald trump or does she with hold that? >> i would think she does. look, here's the interesting thing. the numbers just aren't there for her. i think as ali alluded to, do you go to your home state of south carolina and lose that? northeast posh tishians don't do that. mar marco rubio did that.

he emted up dropping out there after. remarkably it was nikki haley who was his chief delegate on the trail taking shots at donald trump when it was rubio's last stand in florida and other states so maybe nikki haley does have the mettle to stay in. look, this notion -- look, the earlier conversation about sexism, racism, and xenophoxeno that is the current thinking among the republican party. but whether you're male, female, or otherwise, i'm not buying nikki haley's shtick that she's the strong candidate. she equivocates on questions of roe and date of birth. she equivocates on e. jean carroll. she hasn't shown she has the mettle to push through. i think the labels group might try to send her an olive branch.

i suspect she'll shut it down and fall in line with donald trump and other republicans simply because she's a conformist and never challenged republicans when it really matters. >> ali, you were just jonesing there. >> i think i have both. i hear what you're saying, david jolly. it makes sense that nikki haley would fall in line because she's a political animal with a finely tuned political barometer, but how do you go from being the person who represented american small democracy at the united nations and then endorse a man and says he'll be a dictator even only for one day. >> that's a good point to be made. on that point, ali vitali, dasha burns and my other guests, thanks so much for hanging with me. coming up on the eve of the new hampshire primary, donald trump might not be in new hampshire. he might be in a courtroom in

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during my time in politics i did work on three presidential campaigns and normally the day before the new hampshire pry may is a lot of campaign events, babies, shaking hands, rope lines, but, of course, these are not normal times we're living through. tomorrow the trial with. jean carroll continues tomorrow. this trial is just about how much he has to pay her, and he just can't stop talking about her. he's kind of obsessed with it. at a rally tonight he once again called her story totally fabricated. joining our conversation, national conversationalist for the msnbc news and our analyst.

we don't have confirmation that trump will go tomorrow. if he goes, what do you expect, what should we be watching for, and what should he expect? >> what i'm watching for is what prior testimony from prior depositions that trump has given gets introduced as evidence? normally sbeecing you don't get to play prior clips from depositions. one exception is when you're one of the parties in the case. it's called a party admission. you'll remember that donald trump has given lots of depositions recently. in fact, last friday we all got the deposition from the attorney general's case. in that deposition donald trump makes a bunch of really damning statements, although he considered them great statements, about how much he's

worth, how much his family is worth. but it's a high question to the question of punitive damages. how much money will it take to punish donald trump? that's a question you answer differently if somebody has $10 in their bank account, for example, versus hundreds of millions of dollars in their bank account. so even before donald trump has the opportunity to open his own mouth, he might be in the very uncomfortable position of watching himself on tape, in court, hearing himself speak even though he's silent >> that's quite uncomfortable. i don't know if he'll be uncomfortable, i guess we'll have to see. you're a legal eagle, not necessarily an analyst. we have seen him in the courtroom. we expect that tomorrow if he shows up. how do judges weigh that? we're quite close to the official nomination of the republican party. >> the decision here belongs to a nine-person jury of seven men and two women, not at the judge.

on the other hand, the judge is the gatekeeper of his courtroom. he not only decides what evidence comes in but what behavior is tolerable. and when donald trump was seen in his courtroom last week both mouthing very visibly "that's not true" to thinks e. jean carroll had said or making audible statements, he called her a disgrace in court, the judge made clear that's not tolerable. while he has a right to a trial, he doesn't have the right to be disruptive. i think he's wanting that confrontation with kaplan. one of the ways kaplan is keeping him in line is by not talking about any specific punishment. the fact that trump doesn't know how the hammer is going to fall, whether it's cash damages, a

fine, or contempt of court is keeping him on the right side of the line. we'll see what happens tomorrow. >> john heilemann, let's talk about the overlapping legal calendar, political calendar. it's starting to feel quite close to a general election. what does that look like? will trump's campaign change in the courtroom. >> who knows. i think there's enough we can predict on the basis of what we know about donald trump, which is he has -- the kinds of behavior -- the confrontational tactics, the other tacts, what he has in his mind works for him. he's gotten tons of feedback.

every time he gets indicted, every time he has a courtroom controversy, it strengthens him. you know really well there are two elections. you have to win the nominating election and then you go on to the general election. so people talk a lot -- >> and the electorate is different. and it's not the stuff you say in the nomination fight can't come back to haunt you in the general election, but if you don't get nominated, you can't fight it. whether it's the democrat or barack obama or clinton or others, they're focused in that first phase with what do i need to do to get that nomination? for trump, in terms of strengthening him, making him apparently unassailable is behaving in this outrageous, outlandish way in a court of law. what that will do in a general

election when we move to that phase, when people start to focus, there will have been a number of these cases, whether in georgia or washington, it will be a totally different place at that point, i have no idea what happens then, but until the nomination is locked up for donald trump, he's going to keep behaving like this because in a narrow sense it's working for him. >> to heilemann's point here, it's different. to win back the presidency, you have to win back the electorate. you obviously talked to tons of voters in georgia, but also in new hampshire and other places in the country. what do they say? we're obsessively following all of these legal cases, most of them are not. what do they say about how donald trump is behaving in the courtroom? >> we used to say there's a blurred line between trump's campaign and legal strategy. now there's no line at all. and republicans in georgia will say the turned point for donald trump might have been august 8 when he was arrested, when he

took that famous mugshot in fulton county inside the fulton county jail. but when i talk to voters, the small number of swing voters in places like georgia, they're still really split, still really worried, but poll after poll after poll including the atlanta constitution's latest poll feel like the public prosecutions are politicized and they're using it as a rallying cry to unite behind donald trump. >> it may be a tough thing to watch. thanks so much for joining us. lisa rubin, love, ruby. i'll be watching you tomorrow. john is, of course, stibing around with us. coming up, looming large in new hampshire, what you might not expect. we'll be right back. t you might not expect we'll be right back. rsv is out there. for those 60 years and older

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there's one issue on the mind of a voters in new hampshire that might surprise you. more than a third of caucusgoers said immigration is the most important issue to them. that's iowa which is a thousand miles away from the mexico border. >> why donald trump? >> donald trump, because i want a closed border. i want to feel safe again, and i want to enforce law and order of the land. >> the illegals are just, you know, invading our country, and this government is giving them housing and free cellphones and

everything else, free food, and it's not fair to us. >> a major thing with me is our border. i mean we've let in over 2 million since may, in this country. how long does it take before it ruins the entire country? >> so that's what voters in new hampshire are saying and it's worth pointing out that right now donald trump is trying to tank a bipartisan border package that's being worked on in congress. john heilemann is back with me. and joining the conversation is msnbc correspondent john shactman. let's start with you. how often is this issue coming up and did it surprise you how often it came up? >> oh, no. when you ask what's most important, that's the conversation that comes up. when i'm doing reporting in wisconsin and michigan, despite the distance from the border,

that's the top issue that comes up. it's not just that. you heard one gentleman. in new hampshire there's something more unique, and it's connected to the drug issue. new hampshire has been hit hard hardest by the opioid epidemic. >> they mention fentanyl a lot. >> yes. when they see neighbors who die of overdose, they see the open borders and combine that with the rhetoric from the political issues, and that issue that seems so far away becomes so personal and animating for them. >> even though it comes through legal crossings. >> from china. >> not all of this is completely rational. john heilemann, let me ask you this. there's a border deal on capitol hill. a number of conservatives support this deep. donald trump does not want the deal to happen. he's given his guidance to mike

johnson, yes, sir, the deal must not happen, my summary. basically he doesn't want it to happen, fair to say? >> yes. >> how is he going to run in the general election? it's fearmongering, fear of the other. do you think this is a continuing issue he tries to run on october through november? >> look, the immigration issue and the saliency of that, it's hard to say how important it was in 2016 when 350e78 went back and looked at the numbers and how important it was to beating hillary clinton. it's an issue he's worked on, an issue he cares about. he's talking about the cultural changes going on in america and the race freighted issue. there are a lot of democrats, a lot of the reason it cuts, this is a nationalized race. people in new hampshire watch the same stuff on television and

internet that people see in wisconsin or if you happen to be in texas where you see it in a much more up-close way. democrats are acknowledging there's a border crisis and the administration is blamed for it, and its urgency in trying to get this done is an admission it's a politically damaging issue and substantively that there is a problem at the border that the biden administration and democrats are acknowledging. there's no doubt donald trump is playing politics with it, he wants it to be an issue to run on, it's not made up. we're not doing as good a job as we should be doing. >> a really important point. if you're sitting in the biden campaign or white house, you want this deal to happen for basically a version of why the trump team wants it to happen. >> doesn't want it to happen. >> doesn't want it to happen because you know politically -- they know politically this is a problem. it is a problem for them. they need to figure out a way to do something on it.

let me ask you. what are they saying since we're getting closer to a general election here about a trump/biden rematch? >> yesterday i spent a day at what's called a fun spot. it's an arcade, bowling. >> who knew there was a fun spot. if i knew about that, i would have gone. >> he has plans for tomorrow now, that's right. >> people were trying to enjoy their saturday afternoon, saturday morning with the kids. i would go up and thank you to voters. whenever i mentioned what do you think when you see polls that suggest that it's going to be a biden and donald trump rematch, their faces would turn into smiles. you heard words like "disgusting," "i'm upset." the vast majority of people said they're not going out to vote. it's not deciding which candidate. they're like, i'm not going to participate in the process because i'm so angry about my options.

one lady talked about how much she despised donald trump, about classified documents. she said if working people did what he did, they would be in jail. i asked the obvious question, if it's donald trump or joe biden, who do you support? she said, donald trump. she said, i can't support joe biden because he's too old. very funky things can happen in an election. >> here's what i would say. in polling, you see 75% of the country doesn't want this race. >> nikki haley says it a lot. >> there's a lot of data that says it's true. i will say no one at this table has not had the experience in the last six months of people coming up to them, people who are liberal, people who are conservative, who come up and say something to the effect of, is this the best we can do? i really have to choose?

there's this basic malaise across the spectrum, and that creates a really weird environment when normally we have polarization, democrats love democrats, republicans love the republicans, the candidates, and now we have a lot of people in the country who are like, i don't want it. >> we vo to take a quick break. thank you so much for joining me this evening. coming up, someone who knows politics more than most, annie custer. she's standing by and joins me next. we'll be right back. and joins me next we'll be right back.

the big story in new hampshire will be be the two-person race between donald trump and nikki haley for the republican nomination. on the democratic side, joe biden isn't even on t ballot. according the dnc he's prohibited due to his own party rules. what the party is calling it is a meaningless party, the new hampshire one. citizens will have to write in his name. that's not always easy to do. joining me now is congressman annie custer. thanks for staying up with us this evening. i know everybody is working hard on this. we had congressman ro khanna on earlier. what does the success look like for the biden team on tuesday? >> we want to win. i think that's the first goal.

we want to make sure democratic voters and independent voters who choose the democratic ballot knows that joe biden is not on the ballot and how easy it is to drop to the end of the ballot and write in his name. luckily it's easy to spell. and fill in the circle so he counts. we're very enthusiastic about it. i'm looking forward to a decisive win. >> a 50-plus 1 win is what it sounds like you're saying. there's also the matter that your other colleague democratic congressman dean phillips is challenging joe biden in new hampshire. he's on the ballot. he was greeting trump supporters ahead of his rally in rochester, a little strange. but he also says he was treated

there than he has by the state party of new hampshire. what is that all about? i mean he has positions that are certainly aligned with, i think, many viewers, with the presidents, but what is that all about? why would he have been at a trump rally? why is he so concerned there? >> i can't even imagine. i know dean well. we talked about it when he decided to run. i told him i thought it was ill-advised. and, frankly, i think it's been pretty an unimpressive campaign. i've been in new hampshire on political campaigns for president for almost 50 years when i was 16 years old was the first one. he's been very unorthodox techniques, i think, to get in with the voters. i don't think he's taken the time. new hampshire voters are asking

what are your values, what position is the country going in, and how are you going to make a difference, and i haven't really heard that articulated with his campaign. >> i know, congressman, you're a proud democrat, but there's a big primary going on. ron desantis dropped out early this aechb, which means it's a two-person race. you know the electorate quite whel. what is your read? >> i've been reading and the assessment is the desantis votes will go to trump. i disagree with that. we'll find out on tuesday. the desantis votes could have gone to trump at any point in time. desantis has not made a serious effort here in new hampshire, hasn't caught on with the voters. i think they sort of see through him a bit, if you will. i suspect they're never trump voters and i would suspect they gravitate to nikki haley as she comes on strong in the final

days. she's got a surge going on right now. obviously our governor, chris sanuny, a very popular governor, he pulls for her, making the case. donald trump is a threat to our country. he's unfit to be president. and i hope both sides of the ballot, both the democrat write-in biden effort and nikki haley effort will send a strong message to the rest of the country, he cannot have another term. >> we have about a minute left, congressman. i do want to ask. do you hope this is all cleared up on tuesday so the biden campaign can move forward with the general election and make it clear it's between biden and trump? >> i do. i think it will be, certainly on our side. i heap nikki haley gives donald trump a run for the money, but,

look, here's where we are. this is such an important election. i'm wearing my planned parenthood pink because we're celebrating what would have been the 51 isset anniversary of roe this week, and i know here in new hampshire people care so much about their autonomy, their reproductive rights, we care about building our economy that president biden has been doing across the country, bringing down costs, saving the planet, and using his leadership around the globe in fighting for democracy in ukraine, taking care of the israel and gaza situation, and fighting for democracy right here at home. so i hope people will get out to vote, make their choice, and i look forward to a successful day on tuesday. >> congresswoman annie kuster. lots to talk about, lots to celebrate. i wish we were celebrating the 51st anniversary of wade v row.

thanks for joining us this evening. that does it for me tonight. i'll be back here at the desk tomorrow night in new hampshire at 8:30 p.m. eastern. that does it for us for right now. there's more news coming up on msnbc. news coming up on msnbc. i wish we were celebrating the msnbc. i wish we were celebrating the msnbc. shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless

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