chris christie, gone. they all spent time here and they're all gone because she's creating a connection with voters here that no one else could do. >> if she does surprise everyone and wins, and goes on to the nomination, you could hang out with her for four years if you ran with her and she won. just saying. >> i'll give her any advice she wants as president. >> no matter what you think of washington, washington likes you. thank you, andrea. good to see you. a quick programming note, new hampshire secretary of state david scanlan will join chris jansing live at 2:00 p.m. eastern here on msnbc. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports" on election day in new hampshire. remember, follow the show on social media at mitchell reports, rewatch the best parts of our show anytime on youtube, go to msnbc.com/andrea. "chris jansing reports" starts right now. good afternoon.

i'm chris jansing live from msnbc headquarters in new york city. intensity and turnout are high in new hampshire right now. and where else could a few hundred thousand voters wield so much influence over the future of 332 million americans? we're in the final hours of 2024's first primary. the head to head competition between the former president and his u.n. ambassador, nikki haley, now in full swing. we have all angles covered in the next two hours including a conversation with new hampshire secretary of state. i'll ask him about that turnout and the investigation into the fake robocall mimicking joe biden's voice. and with the real president biden and vice president harris heading to a campaign event hundreds of miles from new hampshire, we dig into the push for a write-in campaign that even the strongest supporters are calling weird. but we begin on the ground in new hampshire which brings to mind that old political saying, i iowa picks corn and new

hampshire picks presidents. this is the first in the nation primary which could be the last one of any consequence. maybe tonight former u.n. ambassador nikki haley will get a sense of be careful what you wish for going head to head against her old boss and political juggernaut donald trump or maybe the state that is notoriously tough to poll will prove again that voters who show up are the ones who write tomorrow's headlines, not the pollsters or pundits. and so far at least those voters have been showing up and waiting in line in this critical battle for the nomination and the future of the republican party. >> i don't do what he tells me to do. i've never done what he tells me to do. >> we are really going to rock in new hampshire. >> we're going to south carolina. we have put in the ad buy. we're there. this is always been a marathon. it never has been a sprint. >> we're going to win new hampshire and then we're going to defeat crooked joe biden and we're going to make america

great again. >> our team of reporters is spread out across the granite state, talking to voters. we have two hours worth of reporters. let me bring in nbc's dasha burns from goffstown. shaquille brewster in lacona and vaughn hillyard in milford for us. dasha, in the past, goffstown has been an important bellwether for that state. tell us what you're seeing and what voters were telling you. >> reporter: yeah, chris, the reason it is a bellwether is because it really pretty much exactly mirrored the state wide results back in 2016. this isn't maga country, right. trump won by 34% here, but there are a lot of folks in this area that voted for the likes of kasich, rubio, bush, right. so this is an area where haley has the opportunity to do quite well. and folks are casting their votes now as we speak. there has been a steady flow of people here. she needs to run up her margins here. she has to get around 50% or so in goffstown and areas like it

to have the strong showing that she wants to have if she wants to have that chance at slowing or potentially stopping trump's march to the nomination. i want you to hear some of the conversations that we had with voters today. >> why not donald trump? >> because as she says, chaos follows him, whether it is right or wrong, and i think that we're ready to move on. >> you changed your vote this morning. why? >> i think the election -- the primary is over. i think that, you know, mr. trump's going to be our next candidate. so, i cast a vote for him instead of for haley. >> it was a haley or bust for you? >> yes. >> if donald trump does become the nominee, would you vote for him in the general election? >> under no circumstances. >> what do you think you would do in the general? >> biden. >> biden? >> yeah. >> we did also meet several folks that wrote in joe biden's name on the ballot. and what was interesting to me, chris, the voters that voted for trump and not for haley, when i

asked why not haley, they often used the rhetoric that trump used about her on the campaign trail, calling her a globalist, he had a whole banner calling haley a globalist at a recent rally. he has this way of being able to define candidates. he did that with desantis, now his target is straight on haley. and this is going to be an uphill climb for her and this is the area that she really needs to get a hold of here. >> proof once again that trump talks and his followers listen. thank you for that. let's go to shaq, you're at a busy polling station in laconia. how is turnout? what are you hearing? >> reporter: it looks good so far. it has been busy through the morning. we're now in the afternoon and that afternoon rush and you continue to see voters lined up through the hallway here, sometimes even getting outside the front door. when i talked to voters as they're heading out, after they cast their ballot, it is striking to me how many people made that decision last minute. one gentleman told me he made

the decision not to look on facebook and decided which party primary he was going to participate in. others looked at different things this morning on the news or that's what helped lock in their decision as they were debating between two of the republican candidates. listen to some of the responses i've gotten from voters when asked why they made their decision. listen here. >> we didn't want joe biden to win and we didn't want trump to win, but we figured trump's going to win, but we figured just to stand up to him we're going to vote for nikki. >> that's a good way. >> your vote for nikki haley was more about donald trump? >> yes. i don't think mr. trump is perfect, but i think he's more able to influence people. >> one thing dixville notch, they voted all six of their votes were for haley. >> and that influenced how you voted? >> well, it helped. >> reporter: that shows you it really can be anything that can help make a voter's mind and

help them make that final decision. one other thing, we know this has been a factor, it is a part of the coalition that nikki haley would need do well with, to build, and it is the undeclared voters. we have been hearing as voters come in, they say they're undeclared, they're asked which ballot they want and people are struggling to determine which primary they want to participate in. there are a lot of dynamics that will play into the results tonight. >> and never ceases to amaze. thanks, shaq, appreciate that. vaughn, you're about 60 miles south of shaq. you moved outside. trump had a strong showing there in 2016. what is going on in '24? >> strong showing in 2016 this is also very much of a battle dwround town here. a town of 16,000 folks and joe biden beat donald trump here by 34 votes in the general election

in 2020. that is why you see independents, democrats and republicans all coming here to give you a scene, we're at milford high, home of the spartans here. you see the volunteers for the write in campaign for joe biden. a contingency from college, students volunteering for joe biden. right over here, we'll give you an idea, it is not even just for the democrats and republicans running, but this is hillary here as well as kristen. they are trying to help get ballot access for robert f. kennedy jr. to run as an independent candidate here in the state of new hampshire. 3,000 signatures you need? >> 3,000. >> they're trying to get rfk jr. on the ballot as an independent for general election. you can see over here, to our left, you see a trump campaign booth, you see a nikki haley campaign booth and folks are making their way up and around through the entrance. we'll come in actually here through the back side, how are

you doing? and to give you an idea, we have been seeing a steady stream of folks here throughout the morning and the afternoon. and folks come in here, they -- one of the poll workers told me, this isn't very complicated. folks have just one option, and if you're voting on the republican side, it is picking nikki haley or donald trump here. people are coming in pretty quickly. want to let you listen to two folks we talked to about their decision to support donald trump and more importantly whether other republicas will be brought back into the fold if donald trump ascends to the nomination. take a listen. were you considering a ron desantis or somebody before he dropped out? >> no. anybody that goes against trump, never. right from the beginning. >> reporter: should they be welcomed back into the fold? >> no. >> yeah, i would. >> they would? >> i wouldn't take them back. >> i wouldn't, no. >> why? >> because i love donald trump.

this country needs a fighter for this country. he has a proven record. we need him. he's a divine intervention from god. i really believe that. >> reporter: this is still very much of an active conversation we have been having with folks outside, not just who are they voting for, nikki haley, donald trump, what is the future of the republican party. what was once awe competitive primary here when you there a whole cast of folks campaigning for themselves and you saw contingency last night, burgum, ramaswamy, desantis, tim scott on the campaign stage with donald trump last night, this is a defining moment for the future of the republican party. chris? >> vaughn hillyard, thank you. so interesting. of course, it wouldn't be primary day without checking in

with nbc's steve kornacki. what are you watching for tonight? >> couple of different things, chris. let's call up the map here. this is an election that is under way. it is 6-0, haley winning in dixville notch at midnight vote. that's not been typically a harbinger of the state wide outcome. we'll see. haley getting all six votes out of there. keep in mind, a couple of things here as the returns come in tonight. number one, they do things a little bit differently in new england. used to seeing on election night votes reported out by county. 99 counties in iowa we were looking at. they report them out by city and town in new hampshire. only ten counties in the state. we're not getting them by county, we get them by individual city and town, more than 230 across the state. also keep in mind, new hampshire is a split poll closed state. the majority of the cities and towns in new hampshire are going to close at 7:00 p.m. eastern. that's going to include the biggest city in the state, the queen city of manchester. the biggest city that will stay

open until 8:00 is the second largest in the state, that's nashua. they'll be open until 8:00. most will close at 7:00. we'll see results from 7:00 to 8:00, while some polls are still open. if there is going to be some kind of a haley surprise tonight, haley shocked tonight, couple ingredients you look at. first of all, her core strength, win or lose, comes right in this section. city of lebanon, north, hanover, dartmouth college, that's trump's single worst town in the state of new hampshire in 2016. you continue up to orford, these are going to be solidly pro-haley, epically landslide haley. that's a solid area for her. let's talk about the biggies on here. manchester, biggest city in the state, over 100,000 people there. you take a look. back to the 2016 result, trump won this thing by 24 points. the key is remember how fractured the field was in 2016. jeb bush, marco rubio, chris christie, there was john kasich,

so all sorts of different -- carly fiorina, all different candidates running. manchester on paper, you look at the demographics, look at the types of voters voting there and the coalition haley is trying to put together, manchester is a place where she wants to run even tonight. trump won it by 24. she wants to basically be even, maybe down a few points and ideally for her up a few points. that's got to be close. when nashua starts rolling in, she wants to be winning nashua. not by a huge margin. if she's winning by a couple of points, that's doing well for her. the other big city to remember, the state capitol of concord. this one really fits the demographic profile she is going after. she needs to be getting around 60% of the vote in concord. it is running up the number there. there are a number of towns, vaughn was in one of them, a number of towns around the state where if the returns start coming in, and it is like a neck

and neck battle trump and haley, it is great news for haley. that would signal she's basically probably running neck and neck state wide. look at milford, where vaughn was, this is the 2016 result. when we start getting results from milford, this will be true up in goffstown as well, this will be true in londonderry, a whole bunch like this around the state. we're basically, if it is about 50/50, that's what haley needs to be getting it close to state wide out of those towns. the further it gets from 50/50 in those places i'm talking about right there, the more we'll see the result state wide that resembles what we have been seeing in the polls, a wide trump lead. >> how quickly do returns come in, in new hampshire? >> yeah, so, a couple of things here, typically -- reload this map, typically, 7:00 poll closing time, that first hour can be pretty slow. if you want to compare this race to a past race 2016 on the

democratic side, basically a two candidate race, clinton and bernie sanders, this is a two-candidate race. about 10% of the vote in 2016 for the democrats came in between 7:00 and 8:00. that's a rough benchmark. 20% in the first hour. the other thing to keep in mind, the bulk of the population, the bulk of the vote comes out of this portion of the state, southeast portion of the state. nashua, manchester, not only is there a lot more population here than the rest of the state, but the voting technology, they use voting machines down here, a lot of the small towns still use the old ballot boxes, paper ballot. you might get faster counts out of this part of the state where the bulk of the vote is. i think the action in terms of getting heavy numbers, between 8:00 and 9:30. between 7:00 and 8:00, in terms

of the stuff we get in terms of results, it could be very telling. base odd results, it could be very telling. base on what we know haley needs to be getting and what she has right now. >> steve kornacki, thank you. let's reiterate when we see things shake out tonight in new hampshire. the last polls wrap up at 8:00, most at 7:00. so that's when the votes start to get counted. this is a state with 873,000 registered voters. of that number, 31% republicans. 30% democrats and 39% are those unaffiliated or independent voters. that's the latest numbers from the secretary of state's office. it is worth noting that just under 110,000 voters participated in the iowa caucuses. the nomination could, if trump

wins decisively, be decided by fewer than a million voters. more likely less than half of that, and whatever happens tonight is big, it is important. you can watch it all unfold with msnbc with our special coverage at 6:00 p.m. live at laconia where voters were casting ballots with the election as we said and the future of the party at stake. trump's team is saying we need to end this today. more on that in 60 seconds. toda. more on that in 60 seconds >> anything but trump. >> that was your priority? >> that's my priority. >> is that the biggest reason you supported nikki haley? >> i would say. >> because of donald trump, yeah. i have no problem with the ladies running things. i have one here. i have one here. power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated.

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more than a year into the primary fight and three years since donald trump lost the election, it has all been building up to this. a choice for republicans about what their party is and what it will be. it is new hampshire that represents the might be because it is the electorate that favors a candidate like nikki haley. if donald trump is to be upset. joining us now, matthew dowd for the bush cheney 2004 campaign, senior msnbc political analyst. on set, nbc's "meet the press" moderator, so good to have you here. >> so great to be here. >> before his father took the stage last night, donald trump jr. said, quote, we need to end this tomorrow. how big are the stakes in wham ham? we're not usually talking about do or i do in this state, this

early. >> you're right. the stakes couldn't be higher. trump is could having off a convincing huge win in iowa. if he has another big night, it would make it incredibly difficult for nikki haley to see a path forward. part of that is not just about the numbers, it is the momentum as well. we're seeing republicans coalesce around him, close ranks around him. a lot of the south carolina delegation, senator tim scott, the timing of that, chris, is not a mistake. tim scott made that endorsement before the new hampshire primary to as one source said to me try to put the final nail in the coffin of nikki haley's campaign. this is incredibly calculated. you have some republicans from biden districts, chris, who have now endorsed trump, giving that air of inability. new hampshire is the place of comebacks. we saw that with bill clinton. we saw with john mccain, with hillary clinton. can she have a big comeback?

she's going to need independent voters to turn out in force. today is their day to weigh in. >> matthew, you think back to how others thought donald trump could be beaten by other candidates supporting the last person standing. it shows the opposite happened. those other candidates tonight get behind the alternative. they got behind donald trump. so, and look, trump has arrived in londonderry, new hampshire, his first appearance today. we talk about the split in the republican party. as we watch the former president get out of his car, it is what we're seeing a united republican party? it is just united behind donald

trump. >> i think there has been a misnomer about a split in the republican party for a while now. after donald trump consolidated and won the nomination, in 2016. he's basically held sway over this party for the last seven years in this. nikki haley's only shot in new hampshire, which is way, way, way outside even of a typical comeback, is not to win republicans, it is to win independents and democrats and so she is right now setting herself up on this idea that i can have a shot not by winning the people at her own party, but by winning people outside her party. that's the problem from every candidate. that's gone up against donald trump. once he consolidated the base, and the base is overwhelmingly for him, he'll win republicans tonight by 30, 35 points. i think tonight is donald trump

is going to continue this race. the question is can nikki haley survive after what happens tonight. >> garrett haake on the scene with donald trump, his first appearance after a most unconventional of primaries. let's listen. >> i hope the press is going to cover it fairly. because nobody gets crowds like this. they want to see our country be great again. it is very simple. i've been watching you all morning and you've been almost fair. >> you have a big crowd here. are you pretty confident here? >> i'm really confident. [ inaudible ] we may stop at one more. and nobody knew we were coming. this is pretty amazing. >> mr. president, is she a threat to you? >> no, no. i don't care if she stays in. let her do whatever she wants,

it doesn't matter. i can just say there never has been a movement like this. make america great again, in the history of our country. i thought i would see three or four people but you see a crowd like this and it is organic. i don't want to comment on that. >> would you consider desantis? >> i can't comment to that. >> do you think it will go in her favor at all? >> i think it hurts her. i think it will hurt her. probably have a big loss today. who knows. in the next state is nevada, i have 100%. they all pulled out. i'm going to south carolina and i'm beating her by 60 points. i don't know. that's up to her. i would never ask anybody to pull out. i didn't ask ron to pull out.

i didn't ask vivek to pull out, nobody. we have great support and most of the people that pulled out already supported me. it is actually quite nice. i'm honored by this. we expected to come here and who would think you would have a crowd like this? thank you, everybody. >> we're going to be watching very closely. it is a very important question. we have to make sure we have honest, fair and free elections and strong borders. if we don't have borders and elections, we don't have a country. you see what is going on with the border. millions and millions of people are coming into our country illegally. they come from -- i saw a report this morning, they're coming in

from mental institutions, all over the world, they're pouring in and it makes sense. >> donald trump who continues to say things that are not provable or absolutely unprovable, garrett haake. he was asked if nikki haley is a threat, he doesn't care if he steps in. give me your sense of the scene. kristen welker, you've been in these, i've been in these before. your take on this? >> you're hearing from mr. trump trying to project confidence and where you started the conversation, trying to suggest this is all but locked up. the border is inflating some of the statistics. but it goes to his mentality and

his strategy heading into this primary, which is trying to suggest the race is over. that's why you had all of those former rivals who have now endorsed him line up with him. that was part of the strategy as well. the voters get to have their say. can nikki haley stay in this race beyond new hampshire if she doesn't have a strong finish? we will have to let her make that decision and see what the final results say. but based on my conversations, i'm told, if she has a double digit close, that's very challenging. she could make the case she has a strong night. there is still a path for her. the one thing that is accurate is that he does have a double digit lead over her in south carolina. right now she is nation an uphill battle in her home state.

if she were to suffer a loss in her home state, that could overshadow any political aspirations she has in the future for a run in 2028. >> the truth of the matter is, it is very difficult to run against someone who has engendered the kind of response that donald trump has from his base. we're listening to our correspondents across the state, talking to votes who think he was divinely sent from god. who believe he has the experience, it is difficult to make a case against that kind of entrenched personal belief. having said that, we also talk about the fact that frankly this has been a state known to surprise. what are you watching for

tonight and -- >> we have all three of us been in politics long enough not to ever rule out anything, especially in the trump years of disruptions. and it would be very, very surprising to me if nikki haley got very close in this race. it is a republican primary, she's getting decimated among republicans. i think the fascinating thing that we have seen and we saw in iowa, that we're probably geeing to see in new hampshire, is on one hand donald trump's incredible dominance of the republican party and how well he does among republicans, he's probably going to do better among republicans than any other republican that has run for president on a nonincumbent run for president in the history of the republican primary system. new hampshire is showing his incredible vulnerability that he

has in a general election, where he's losing unaffiliated voters, democrats are enthusiastic enough to vote against him to come vote in the republican primary. you have two opposite things going on. incredible dominance and incredible vulnerability among voters that are going to decide the yen election. there was a "wall street journal" article that had a scathing summary and i want to read it. between desantis's withdrawal and haley's having little path forward, the race could be over on wednesday. the party having passed up another opportunity to turn the page on a polarizing multiple indicted candidate and has never lost the popular vote.

this is someone who has lost again and again and again. since he won the presidency. i don't know. is that argument helping her land some of these folks? is there a sense within the campaign what is working for her? >> i think there is a frustration that she didn't make that argument and other arguments against trump earlier. and more aggressively. and every single day and every hour. you heard this weekend start to attack him in the most forceful terms we had yet, mocking her name. and supporters say i wish that's the kind of fight we should have

seen. chris christie made his entire campaign about going after trump. was that a miscalculation to not go directly at him. they were trying to walk a fine line for the better part of his campaign. any understand politically speaking why they doing that. how can you take out trump? >> let me go back, garrett haake, the former president just finished speaking to the media. we got out of it when he started going in heavy on some of the things he says that are simply not true or not provable or exaggerated. give us a sense of the scene here and what you think is relevant to the race today and going forward.

>> this kind of drop by is standard campaign fare. dressed up to the 9s by the trump campaign. donldz trump is trying to capitalize on the energy and project it across the rest of the staid. i talked about the way that the party started cane sol base around him. and he was treeing to be the more gracious version of donald trump. clearly something very much irks donald trump. i asked him a question, he's been talking about this unity idea, how he gets the folks -- >> can i interrupt you for a second? >> yeah, please. >> i think we have that. i want to play if.

. >> you talked about trying to unify the party. how do you bring nikki haley voters, someone who voted for you in 2020 but not now, how do you bring them back to the tent? >> they're all going to vote for me. i'm not sure i need too many. biden is the worst president in the history of the country. they're all coming back. thank you, everybody. >> it is not often you hear a candidate say i don't need them. if there is anything, he's confident. >> absolutely. i was struck by that answer. the idea that donald trump will put back together the narrow coalition that help him win, he can't afford to lose republicans who voted for him twice.

he's not as concern. he tipped his hand about how he brings them back. flipping be the script and saying joe biden will be his turnout machine. the person who brings the wayward republicans back to him and that's going to be a challenge. when you heard a lack of outreach to the remaining republican holdouts, and who is the biggest threat to the country, he laughed off what he calls rinos, saying they're stupid people. there is a lot of people who would follow under that. we'll see if he moderates or keeps his head down and does his stylistically thing here, not a big tent operation in the

traditional sense. >> garrett, thank you. kristen, your thoughts? >> it speaks it and good job by garrett because that's not easy to do when you're in a crush of corresponds like that. it shows a vulnerability with donald trump and one that they are concerned about. trump wins the nomination and then what happens? how do you bring the moderate voters back into the fold. the voters that sent him to the white house. if you look at the general election polling, he's competitive with president biden in key swing states. some polls show him beating president biden. you are seeing democrats really

ramp up their messages. their campaigning. the president is in virginia talking about abortion rights. they know what they're seeing on the republican side is go time. that doesn't mitigate the fact there are a lot of jitters inside about whether he it win in a general election. the economy could play a key factor in this. the way people feel about the economy could determine a lot as well. >> so great to have you here. host of "meet the press," kristen welker, my old friend from the tiny little booth at the white house. thank you. appreciate it. ahead, just how independent are new hampshire's independent voters feeling today?

and voting today? this is goffstown where one of our reporters asked voters where they stand after casting their ballot. >> things have to change this year. >> can i ask who you voted for today? >> i voted for trump. >> who it you cast your ballot for? >> nicky haymy. r ballot for? >> nicky haymy hm? you! your business bank account with quickbooks money, now earns 5% apy. 5% apy? that's new! yup, that's how you business differently. ♪ before planning the wedding your bad hip was really acting up. then, you heard about mako robotic-assisted hip replacement. it starts with a ct scan to pinpoint the problem. that becomes a personalized, 3d plan to guide your doctor during surgery. mako can help lead to better outcomes, like less pain and shorter recovery times. the lifetime of a hip implant is limited,

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take you all over new hampshire. and we are. the university of new hampshire bus full of students and, yes, they are all on their way to the polling place to vote. nbc's jacob soboroff joins me from the bus in durham, new hampshire. all right, set the scene, what are you hearing? >> we're here, we're not on our way. we made it to durham, new hampshire. you got back from winter break today? today is the first day back. first time voting, anybody? first time voting. first time voting for president, raise your hand. almost everybody. okay. so, let me start with you. what is your name? you want to mel me what party you're going to vote for? >> patrick, i'm going to vote for the republican. >> you're going republican. >> your name? >> diana, i'm voting democrat. >> okay. >> catherine, voting democrat. >> okay. >> i'm kim, i'm voting republican. >> all right. >> i'm kelly, i'm voting republican. >> i'm ty, i'm going to write in cease-fire. >> that is something i see a lot

of kids, students at the university are doing. that's voting with your vote for a cease-fire in gaza. why are you doing that and not one of the candidates? >> i don't feel like any of the candidates are expressing what the people feel. >> so if it comes down to joe biden and donald trump and a candidate you don't like in the general, what do you do? >> it stinks because it feels like it is out of my control a lot of the time. i don't know. i don't know. >> you have to wait and see. >> yeah. >> raise your hand again if you're voting republican. >> trump. >> trump. >> how about you? >> trump. >> okay. democrats over here, who is a democrat? what are you going to do? >> i don't know. >> you're about to walk in and vote. what do you mean, you don't know?

>> i know. i'm -- it is tough because biden didn't come here today. so -- >> you got to write in his name if you do biden. you think you're going to do that or you're not sure yet? >> yeah. >> what about you? >> i'm going to write some random name. none of the candidates are sticking out to me. so -- >> i hear that from a lot of young voters. you're a republican. what are you doing? >> i'm voting for nikki haley. >> why did you decide to go against former president trump? >> i'm not a trump fan and i've been a republican since i've been able to register to vote and i think she's better for the party. >> i'll let you go back, do your thing. nice to meet you. get on the bus. they're going back to school. let's get on the bus together. melanie is the bus driver. she's been doing great. why are you going so fast? >> trying to get people to go vote. >> democracy in action in durham. wheels up. let's get out of here. you voted. how did it go? how did it go?

>> pretty quick. >> good. >> first time ever? >> yes. >> yes. >> republicans, democrats? >> undeclared. >> undeclared. which way did you declare? >> republican. >> you went for republican, trump, haley. >> haley. >> okay, chris. it is amazing what you can find out on a shuttle bus in durham, new hampshire. i'm in my happy place now. i'll send it back to you. >> if anybody can get to the bottom of it, it is jacob soboroff. we appreciate you so much in durham, new hampshire. thank you. we have another live look in milford, new hampshire. reporters on the ground there talked to people who know just how important their choice is today. and it is a responsibility at least one new hampshire voters takes very seriously. >> should we ask you who you voted for? >> i'm not supposed to tell. my parents said it is private. but i voted democrat. >> you voted democrat. >> i did. >> did you write in -- >> i had to do that. but i'm not telling you who. but i'm not telling you who.

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katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message. we want to catch you up on some other key stories we're following today. let's start in san diego which is recovering from a deluge that flooded homes and turned roads into rivers. three months of rain fell in about three hours yesterday and it forced the mayor to declare a state of emergency. dozen of people had to be

rescued, officials say, in what was san diego's wettest january day ever. in gaza, the israeli military suffered its deadliest day of the war so far. 24 soldiers were killed yesterday including 21 in a single explosion. prime minister netanyahu says it's one of the most difficult days since the outbreak of the war but vowed we will not stop fighting until complete victory. today, lloyd austin made his first public remarks since being released from the hospital amid controversy for not notifying the white house about his medical issues. he joined the group virtually from home. he did not address the health controversy, but did briefly address how he's feeling saying he feels good and is looking forward to being back at the pentagon soon. new hampshire voters are about to make a big impact on the 2024 race, potentially

settling the republican primary when it's barely begun, but voters there have a long history of delivering last minute surprises. could that happen for nikki haley this time? joining us now is someone with decades of experience in new hampshire. josh calvin is founder of the calvin strategies. i want to mention something political playbook talked about today. they noted how new hampshire voters like to overturn the results from iowa. they picked mccain over bush in 2000. hillary over obama in '08, but those surprise victories, they write, were seen in the polling and felt on the campaign trail when a candidate suddenly catches fire in a final weekend of a primary race, curious voters suddenly flood to their events. do you sense nikki haley has that kind of momentum? >> if you asked me this two weeks ago, i would say things were trending well for her, but there's two dynamics of play

kind of underreported at the national level. this is an open primary in new hampshire. unlike the rest of the nation. joe biden has chosen not to be on the ballot. so there's a write in campaign on his behalf. dean phillips, the sitting congressman, who's a very credible candidate. so how does that play into the republican primary? it does. and the confluence of circumstances aligned well for trump here because the 350,000 undeclared voters in new hampshire, ordinarily, conservative republican leaning undeclared voters would break for nikki haley because they hadn't made up their minds. donald trump voters aren't going anywhere. he's got his base. up here in new hampshire, republican voters in new hampshire, and democratic voters aren't going to reward biden for showing up and keeping his name off the ballot. somebody that might go for nikki haley ordinarily without the situation on the democratic side

might decide to send a message to washington saying listen, you want to mute your voice as far as this primary is concerned, i'm going to cast the ballot for dean phillips. that could be the biggest story coming out of new hampshire tonight. donald trump certainly has the ability to reach 50%. nikki haley has probably the most powerful republican surrogate in chris sununu who has been extremely active campaigning on her behalf. i'm not sure what the next page of the playbook is for nikki haley. if it's not close single digits, if it's eight, nine, ten or beyond obviously, the campaign is viable moving forward, but keep an eye on the democratic side of things. >> let me go back to haley for a minutes because aaron blake writes if she can't win head to head in new hampshire with its friendly electorate and if trump wins the majority of the vote there like he did in iowa, it will be abundantly clear where

this is headed. a third straight presidential nomination for trump. it does speak to the absolute importance of this contest for haley. that this is a taylor made electorate for her if there is one. recent polling shows -- if haley can't win here, she can't win anywhere? >> very difficult. she not only has to win, she has to surprise people. she needs to have the wind at her back and a lot of momentum and everyone talk about wow, did you see what happened last night in new hampshire and nikki haley. there is an alternative here. remember, nevada's next, but she can't take a delegate out of nevada with the new system with the caucuses and the primary so she'll need to make a touchdown. see what the polls are like in south carolina and they don't look good for her, she's going to have to make a call very quickly because the worst thing she wants to do for her future political career is get

embarrassed in her state, which seems to be the indication so far in polling in south carolina. >> josh, good to see you. thank you so much. let's take a look at the milford, new hampshire polling place that former president trump just left. we've got more on that right after this. you're watching chris jansing reports only on msnbc. ris jansi reports only on msnbc. there's nothing better than a subway series footlong. except when you add on an all new footlong sidekick. we're talking a $2 footlong churro. $3 footlong pretzel and a five dollar footlong cookie. every epic footlong deserves the perfect sidekick. order one with your favorite subway series sub today.

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