good to be with you. i'm katy tur. we are all over new hampshire on this primary day. from dixville notch to nashua,

laconia to portsmouth, asking voters if they want something new in this small slice of america, where making your decision is a point of pride. it is hard to predict what will happen in any given election. or is it? >> i changed my vote this morning and went, instead of voting for haley, i voted for trump. >> why? >> i think the election, the primary's over. i think that you know, mr. trump's going to be our next candidate. >> trump or haley? >> trump. >> yeah. >> considering haley? >> yes, i was. this morning. >> how did you make up your mind? >> really just i like when trump was already kind of in there. he has the experience and just kind of having second guesses about nikki. >> so what would another general election with donald trump as the nominee look like? if that happens, well, exactly like this, according to donald

trump. >> how do you bring nikki haley voters, some who voted for you in 2020. how do you bring them back? >> they're all going to vote for me again, everybody. i'm not sure we need too many. >> joining us now from milford, new hampshire, vaughn hillyard and in pembroke, ali vitali. so, vaughn, don, don. donald trump is not sure he needs those voters. what are the voters you're talking to today telling you? >> frankly, there's a great number of trump voters who i've talked to here who have been very certain about their votes. for the folks who have said nikki haley, it is the batch of republicans who were pondering whether to vote for nikki haley or other candidates here. this has been the struggle for these other non trump candidates the entire way was the excitement around any one particular candidate and frankly, throughout the last

year, we never saw it. nikki haley launched her presidential bid more than 11 months ago now. she had almost a whole year to mount and build a movement around her candidacy and there's been no indication that she was ever able to succeed in doing that. of course now, only have less than four hours until the new hampshire polls close. we'll let you listen to a few other folks we've talked to today. nikki haley or donald trump? >> trump, of course. >> trump of course. were you considering anybody else? >> no. >> haley or trump? >> haley. we heard her speak at hampshire hills. >> were you considering donald trump? >> not this time around. >> pretty simple, really. i voted for trump. >> were you considering anybody else at any other point? >> not really. >> trump. >> trump. >> trump! >> trump. >> all the way, trump! >> were you considering nikki haley? >> never. >> we've seen her a couple of times.

>> never. >> i want someone who's going to fight for our country. we need him. he's a divine intervention from god. >> how far will that maga movement around donald trump take the former president of the united states? it could very well take him to the republican nomination and a big win here in new hampshire, but those were independent voters that said nikki haley who came here to register. we've heard some frustration among republicans who said this is a republican primary and that independents should not have a major influence. that is really the only concern that they have of any potential nikki haley prowess in the closing hours of which we wait for the final results. >> independents are the largest voting block in new hampshire. they can vote in both the republican and the democratic primary and the granite staters say that part of what makes this state great is that because so many of them are undeclared and willing to swing either way.

ali, nikki haley wants those undeclared voters to swing to her. what are you hearing from voters where you are? >> it's no secret that getting undeclared voters in the largest amounts they can is a key part of the team's strategy. but what's fascinating is that as they have been laying expectations, they have been vague on what it means to succeed here in new hampshire. so much so that after desantis dropped out and it became the two-person race they wanted, i asked haley how do you argue that second place in a two-person race is anything but a loss? she said it means doing better than she did in iowa, which is easier to do when it's only two people in a race and you've got to come in second to be better than third, which is where she placed in the hawk eye state. but haley's also looking ahead down the calendar. listen to what she said about south carolina, which is not just the next state technically. although nevada is in there and

has a split between primary and caucus. also haley's home state. watch what she said about south carolina? >> we're going to south carolina. we put in the ad buy. we're there. this has always been a marathon. it's never been a sprint. we want to be strong in iowa. we want to be stronger than that in new hampshire. we're going to be stronger than that in south carolina. we're running the tape. >> so it seems the word of the day is not winning. it's just stronger. and even the man who was standing next to here in that gaggle, the guy who's really been with her the entire time that she's been barn storming through this state is the popular governor here. republican chris sununu who of course has endorsed haley. we've even seen him change his tune initially saying at the end of the year last year that she was going to win here by a landslide in his words then of course even as recently as yesterday saying she was just going to do well here. so again, a shifting of the goal post and expectation setting for the haley campaign as they vow

in a new memo they're staying in this thing not just through south carolina but through super tuesday. >> thank you very much. joining us now, the moderator of "meet the press" on nbc news, kristen welker. so happy to see you in person. >> it's good to be with you. >> i want to talk about nikki haley tempering expectations. she sounds like desantis did in iowa. what's her path out of new hampshire is she does not win? >> it's a great question. it's not clear if she has one, but this is what i'm watching for. what is the margin the trump wins. if haley can keep the margin to less than double digits, she could potentially argue look, this was a strong finish. i do have a path moving forward in south carolina. but here's where the challenge really sets in. look at what's happening in south carolina. trump is already beating her by double digits. and he has locked up the endorsements of a lot of the top

names in the state including tim scott who she appointed in 2012, the governor. senator graham. representative mace. >> she helped get re-elected. >> correct. and that's where typically we don't talk a whole lot about endorsements. in this case, you need to because the optics are so overwhelming. trump was campaigning with his former rivals who of course were challenging him. who have all now endorsed him. he wants to make the case this is game over. i'm told that's part of the timing and the significance of the scott endorsement, but that's where south carolina getting very challenging. >> what do you make of all them falling in line so quickly. not just with holding and letting the voters of their state have their say before they get in bed with donald trump or nikki haley? >> it's a really great question. there's a sense of wanting to endorse him at the right time. closing ranks around him. >> for their own self-interest? >> because they can say we were with you before you had this

completely locked up. before it was completely obvious. that's part of the political calculation and again, that's part of what makes these optics so powerful. part of what makes south carolina challenging for haley. yes, it's her home state so conventional wisdom is that you would go home to your home state and have sweeping support. not the case because of these endorsements. because of the polls and if she wants to run in 2028 for example, it makes going to south carolina and facing a potential loss there that much more challenging. so if she does lose tonight, and it's still an if, the voters get to weigh in. they get to have their say, but if she loses, if it's a big loss, i think she is going to have to take a hard look. >> so 80,000 people caucused in iowa, roughly. 300, if it's a great night. 300,000 if it's a great day in new hampshire. that's 380,000 if she exceeds nominations. i'm sympathetic to her when she

said there's almost nobody that's gotten their say. why should we be saying we're going to throw in our hat after only two rounds of voting? >> and you're right about that. there is an issue of momentum and there's the math. and trump, if he wins these first two state, first of all, taking a step back historically, no gop candidate who's not an incumbent has won both iowa and new hampshire. so it would be a significant amount of momentum heading into nevada, south carolina and heading into super tuesday. doesn't mean she doesn't have a case. that she can't start to pick off some of these states but at a certain point, where can she win if she can't win new hampshire which is tailor made for her. 40% of the voters there are undeclared. are independent. that is a state that is made for her. these other states, if you think about a south carolina, a florida for example, trump's

home state with votes after super tuesday, those are the types of states that get even tougher. the map and the math both get tougher for her. >> what do you make of the voters who vaughn spoke with at the beginning. the ones who said they were going to vote for haley then walked into the polling booth and decided to vote for donald trump? is it this air of inevitability. >> it is. and the optics, the sense trump is creating that he has this locked up. you hear that in what he's saying. the bravado. not a surprise. you covered the trump campaign in 2016. you're familiar with it. but he's trying to make the case to the voters in new hampshire, i'm going to be the guy. the nominee. but that doesn't take away from how fascinating vaughn's conversations were with those voters because they are quite literally proving the air of inevitability. >> i'm struck by how he sounds exactly the same at 2016. he is saying the same things, almost the same words. it's not like he's campaigning on i did this and that except

for a few exceptions. he's using the same talking points, the same criticism, the aim allegations against democrats he used in 2016. rinse repeat. >> it's a playbook that worked for him in 2016 so that's why he's using it now, but the question is how does that play with a general electorate? i was talking to a number of republicans who say they have real concerns about their chances in a general election because of that rhetoric. because of his court cases. his indictments. which play very differently with a general electorate than they do with the gop primary. which by the way has rallied around him. you had some republicans who weren't supporting him but who became angry on his behalf about these indictments. that he's facing so they got on board with him. you might not see that and that's why it gets more complicated in a general election. this split screen between the campaign trail and the

courtroom. >> he says he's got all the voters he needs. kristen welker, thank you very much. always good to see you. and joining us now, political reporter with the boston globe, james pendle. glad you're inside and not outside in the cold like last time i saw you. >> exactly. >> tell me where the wind is blowing now in new hampshire. >> yeah, look. a lot of those conversations you saw at the top of the hour are the ones i've been having today. one thing i would point out is when you talk to a number of haley supporters, they're not voting for haley. they're voting against trump and they say more probably than not they'll vote against trump in the general election. when trump say he is doesn't need these voters, at least here in one swing state like new hampshire, he absolutely does. >> is there a specific county that you are looking at now to give you an indication of where this is going? >> yes, rockingham county. new hampshire's a small state. 50% of the population lives in

two counties. they're along the massachusetts border. basically bedroom communities to boston. but rockingham county is sort of the eastern part along the seacoast and the massachusetts border. and that is rock rib republican country as well as college educated independent voter country. so that is going to be a definitive county to be watching town by town by the way. so vaughn for example was in the other county. he was in hillsboro county, which is going to be much more trump country. he better rack it up there. you saw a lot of voting for trump expected in milford, but portsmouth you think salem. you think derry and londonderry. a critical town. if nikki haley's going to have momentum, it's going to be in a place like londonderry and if donald trump is going to knock it out, it's going to be in

londonderry. >> let me ask you about whether you'll see any signals here for the general election beyond what we see tonight? is there anything you're going to hold in your head going into heading toward november? you'll explore more? >> yes. i am very curious about where exactly these nikki haley voters do go in a general election, but second, you know, i think the story of the night that's kind of sitting there is not even the republican race. it could be the democratic race. of course, the democratic primary technically does not count for the democratic national convention, but there's this write-in campaign for joe biden and we don't really know the margin of victory here of what actually is successful or not. polls have suggested he would get in a write-in campaign 60%. if that happens, it may be a total nonstory.

however, if he is closer to 50%, there could be a lot of anxiety among democrats who were already anxious about joe biden. if he's close to over 70%, then obviously that can allay a lot of democratic worry and joe biden can say i got this, don't worry. just for context. this is the new hampshire primary. there are 21 candidates on the democratic ballot. furman supreme who wears a boot on his head is on the ballot. barack obama only got 81% of the vote in his re-election. joe biden's margin of victory is a place to watch in the general election. >> it's the only place where the people on the ballot where people are look like parliamentary elections over there, including people who wear things like boots on their head. james, thank you very much. we will see what the democratic thinks about changing their

primary to south carolina. whether they have second thoughts. thanks. still ahead, a new poll finds nearly 60% of registered voters aren't enthusiastic about a biden trump rematch. what voters in new hampshire are saying today about the choices they've been left with. plus, they make up new hampshire's largest voting block. jacob talks to an undeclared voter who voted for donald trump in 2016, then joe biden in 2020. who he's looking at now. first though, we head over to nashua, new hampshire's second largest city. what voters there told us that should be a warning sign for the gop. we're back in 60 seconds. >> trump. >> process of elimination. >> i voted for him twice. but after all the stuff that's gone on, i just could not vote for him again. d not vote for him again.

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do you think trump is dangerous for democracy? >> oh, absolutely. >> sure. yes. he's pretty much said so himself. >> he's proven he doesn't know, understand how government works. he just wants to destroy it, break it down and do his own thing. and my concern with him is that fascination with dictatorships. >> voters i spoke with saying they didn't really like donald trump. there are voters in new hampshire who say the same thing. they're not exactly enthusiastic about him. they want something different. if donald trump is to win, he's going to have to convince tens of thousands of voters across key swing states who did not vote for him in 2020 to take another chance on him in 2024. is he ready to try and do that? joining us in nashua, new hampshire, garrett haake. you asked him this very question. tell me what he said and can you glean anything from the way he's been campaigning about what he might do in a general election

to convince those to come back into the fold? >> yeah, i even asked him about those people who did vote for him in 2020 but have said since then they won't vote for him again. i think it's a bigger problem than that from the trump campaign. he hasn't made a significant effort. he's been focused on a traditional read meat primary campaign up until this point. he sort of flicks at the idea of appealing to some of those folks that he lost in some of his bigger speeches like the one he gave after winning iowa in which he tried to strike a more conciliatory tone and talk about party unity. today, he suggested he didn't really need to lure folks who might be voting for nikki haley today. that joe biden could do it for him. kind of the inverse of the argument that democrats make about trump that trump is such a turnout machine for democrats. here you see democrats saying joe biden's presidency is the thing that will push these voters back into my camp. but the voters i'm talking to do not convince me this is going to

be a winning strategy like a man named steve hansen who i met this morning who had this to say about the possibility of ever getting back on the trump train. >> how much of your vote was for nikki haley versus against donald trump? >> i'd say 75% against donald. 25% for. >> so what do you do if it's trump and biden in the general election? >> i may not vote for president. >> really. >> i mean, i'll vote, but i cannot vote for biden and i won't vote for trump. >> we saw evidence of that in 2020. think about all the thousands of people in georgia who left the top line blank. it became a determtive factor in georgia in 2020. a similar dynamic could play out in a 2024 general election between two fairly unpopular candidates. but there's a long way to go between here and there but 2000 people have voted where i am in

nashua right now. several hours left to go with the polls still open. >> let's see if they get to that 300,000 mark that the secretary of state was predicting. thank you very much. joining us now, a staff writer. good to have you. what's it like there this go around? from versus 2020 or 2016? >> well, i mean, there is i would say a slight vibe of surrender. the last week has been marked by one candidate after another dropping out of the republican race and you know, endorsing donald trump, which doesn't exactly give you a sense of momentum or like a big movement against him. but nikki haley's here. she's campaigning every day. trump is doing nightly rallies. there's a skeletal sense of a campaign but ultimately, there's a bit of a resignation in the air that maybe the dye is cast

but also maybe a little whisfulness that the new hampshire primary could be on its last legs and maybe isn't the attraction and sort of showcase political event that it was in the past. >> a feeling of blah. let's talk about what garrett and i were getting into. who donald trump needs to win if he's the general election candidate for therepublicans. i'm going to put up on the screen. votes in key states that donald trump lost by. in nevada, it was 33,000. georgia, almost 12,000. wisconsin, 20,000. arizona, 10,000. pennsylvania, 80,000. these are the votes that he would need to switch back to him if all turnout numbers are the same. is he doing anything right now from your perspective to convince voters that they should take another chance on him or is president biden doing anything to convince voters that they should go for trump and not him? >> well, biden has done a really good job of alienating new hampshire voters by blowing them

off saying south carolina goes first. people assume or people have positive that this is related to the bad performance he had in the primary four years ago. he finished fifth. but biden is running a write-in campaign. that is not a good place to be. dean phillips, the democrat, has a long shot. congressman from minnesota is running. could be very embarrassing for donald. for dean phillips. not donald. but as someone said before. i forgot who it was. it could, if trump, if biden wins the democratic side, it's not a story. if he doesn't do well, that is a story. that's kind of a no win situation for him. as for trump, i mean, he clearly cares about this state and one of the reasons is it's somewhat of a swing state unlike iowa which is sort of a lock for him, a red state. new hampshire is blue, but somewhat purple. has a lot of independent voters. he could do well by showing up

here, which he has been doing and if he could do well here in the primary, one, he could sort of knock nikki haley out, but also you know, show that he might be competitive in november. >> mark, you've been covering this now, donald trump now for eight years. i wonder if you can help me understand something. why, usually incumbents and donald trump is in practice, the incumbent for the republican party. usually, they lose support. they do stuff in office not everybody loves. they lose some of their voters. why has that not happened with donald trump? what is it about him and his voters? >> i think that's a bit of a misconception because i think he has lost a lot of support sp. there's this idea that donald trump is bulletproof. he can do whatever he wants and people will forgive hi you talk to a lot of people around here and trump voters from '16 and '20 who say they're done. i know if it's the insurrection,

if they're turned off by the course cases and stuff. clearly, he has a real, real hold on about half the voters in the primary, but i think donald trump has definitely paid a price for some of the stuff he's been up to. you know, the problem is, the benefit he's had is that it's been such an abysmal resistance inside the republican party. the other non trump candidates have really done a lousy job and he's going up against a very unpopular incumbent. >> our time will be why ron desantis and nikki haley will be why they chose to go after each other and not the front-runner. thank you very much. coming up, what if voters are on track to get the rematch they never wanted. chuck todd is here. first though, jacob on new hampshire's largest voting block. the undeclared voters. what they're looking for in their 2024 pick.

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eight years ago, jacob went

fishing for an independent voter to help him understand what motivated that voting block. today, he went back for more. >> we first met on newfound lake while he was ice fishing days before the 2016 primary. >> trump is interesting. he's a spectacle in himself, right? personally speaking, i'm leaning toward bernie sanders. >> we went back this week to see how he was feeling ahead of today's election. >> what's up, michael? >> the lake has changed, too. how's life been since i saw you last? >> as far as expense, things get more expensive now, which is bad. >> with warmer weather dramatically shortening ice fishing season. >> this is the worst year i've seen it, actually, so it seems like it's getting worse every year. >> climate change? >> perhaps. very frustrated. >> michael told us he ended up voting for trump in 2016. >> back when if you remember, i called him a spectacle, right? he continues to be.

>> then biden in 2020. >> not too happy about that either. honestly, he hasn't done anything good for me. >> desantis is out. you don't love biden. you're faced with trump and haley. >> she seems to be a go getter. >> as he contemplated his choices with just hours to go, michael waited patiently for lake trout and candidates. >> they should come to me. >> you're not seeing any candidates out on the lake. >> no, not today. >> to be fair, i'd be nervous about getting on to that lake. jacob joins me now. you're driving to derry, new hampshire. i heard the cracking of the ice under your feet as you were walking out there. there's climate change. i'd be nervous, i have to say. >> it was okay. i'm a brave correspondent, but i would say the guy who's nervous is michael quinn.

i think that's part of the reason. it wasn't his main issue, but it's part of the reason he was talking about looking at a nikki haley over donald trump. and it is, it really is a special, amazing experience to get to spend time with these undeclared, independent new hampshire voters because they really do say and speak and vote ultimately what's on their mind and a guy like michael, there are untold number of them in this state. just by talking with one of them, you can get a good idea of what so many of them think. >> what does it say to you about joe biden's chances? especially when you're talking to somebody about climate change. joe biden has made bigger moves on climate change than any proceeding president. they have gone where no one else has gone before. what you see for him in 2024 based on the voters you've been speaking with? >> the thing to me that was more enlightening to me about the challenges that president biden faces here is the time that i

spent with those voters. you played a little sound before the commercial break on the bus. university of new hampshire in durham. virtually every one of the young people who i talked to who are democrats that are on that bus going to participate in the primary said, is that right, ernie? say hi. they weren't going to vote for biden. they were going to vote for somebody else. a lot of them didn't bring up climate change at all. they brought in the idea writing in cease fire in support of a cease fire in gaza to protest the u.s.' position supporting israel in the war there. i saw troubling signs potentially in a general election for president biden with the young people in new hampshire and i think what may be the saving grace for him is that they are not the largest demographic in this state and

obviously he's not participating on the ballot in the primary, but if they have to write it in, they're telling me they're picking in something else or writing in cease fire here in new hampshire. >> hello, arnie. tell your crew i'm happy they didn't radio you directions during this shot. unlike our phone calls. thank you very much. >> see you, buddy. still ahead, what a win might look like for president biden on this primary day even though his name is not on the new hampshire ballot. and chuck toddnson what the other side of this election looks like on the other side of this break. first though, alec hernandez on what makes rochester, new hampshire, so special. >> i'm here in rochester, new hampshire. it's a city of about 30,000 people here in the southeastern part of the state, but what makes it so special is that the results here typically mirror

the results of the statewide primary for republicans. typically so goes rochester, so goes the rest of the state. donald trump, for example, he was just here two days ago. had a rally here in town. nikki haley visited on the 17th. less than a week ago. i could've waited to tell my doctor my heart was racing just making spaghetti... but i didn't wait. i could've delayed telling my doctor i was short of breath just reading a book... but i didn't wait. they told their doctors. and found out they had... atrial fibrillation. a condition which makes it about five times more likely to have a stroke.

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the ballot in new hampshire. if you want to vote for the incumbent president today, you've got to write him in. joining us now, mike memoli. you're in my favorite town in all of that state. i love portsmouth. i hope you're having a nice time. tell me what you're hearing about the write-in campaign and whether the biden campaign, the democrat, think that maybe it wasn't such a good idea to move the first primary to south carolina? >> well, it's so interesting because when the filing period here closed and president biden wasn't one of those 21 democrats who filed for the ballot, there wasn't an organized write-in campaign. so everything we've seen, the house parties, the volunteer efforts we've been tracking all weekend has been really just in the last two months. the organizers feel really good. we've been talking to some voters who have gotten mailers from the campaign. they've gotten texts and phone calls so they are getting the vote out, but it's going to be so interesting as we watch the

numbers tonight and potentially see the republican race called early, whether the vote comes in for the president. whether it's strong enough to dispel those doubts democrats have about biden's political strength. this is one of the most heavily democratic wards in the state. democrats outnumber republicans here. about three and a half to one. the turnout in the ward in the 2020 primary where most of the action was on the democratic side was over 2200. only 200 votes were cast in the republican primary. i know this because i've been keeping this bible here with me. the red book. it has every fact and figure you could ever want about new hampshire elections. so far, undeclared voters here are overwhelmingly according to the election workers, are voting in the republican primary. already, they've surpassed what we've seen here in terms of the republican vote and the total is only about half of what it was.

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>> don't mess with me, pork chop. what day this is? >> it's february 2nd. ground hog day. >> if you feel like changing your wake up alarm to sonny and cher's i got you babe, go for it. 2024 feels a lot like 2020. chuck, it feels a lot like 2016 to me. donald trump is saying the exact same things. i bet if we took campaign footage from 2016, other than the fact he might look a little younger and sound a little sharper, the words coming out of his mouth are the same. >> by the way, i love that movie. a movie changed the meaning of a holiday. ground hog day meant one thing before that movie. it now means like constant repetition. >> to take this, donald trump himself has changed the meaning of what it is to be a republican. >> he sure has. i think nikki haley's finding out the hard way. that's what you start to look at here. when john mccain won in new

hampshire, he had a, he didn't get pounced by republicans. he at least was competitive among registered republicans then he blew out the competition among independents. you don't see that same thing. and part of it, and it goes back to what we saw in iowa and i don't want, one state does not make a trend, but the fact that the most, people that identified as the most conservative, very conservative, were trump voters. you know, eight years ago, voters did not believe he was the most conservative. they knew who he was but never saw him that way. the fact he has a change, but now he is the, whatever he says is conservative is now the definition of conservative and that is kind of conservative. they are going, no, he changed the definition. >> what does that mean for politics in this country? we have had him on the scene for eight years. you read about sea changes, big changes in the parties and how

they switched from one set of priorities and policies and go to another. it's fascinating to see it happen in realtime. >> there's another way to look at this. he's making today's republican party what the democratic party was in the '30s and '40s. pop list, working class, isolationists. so i am also mindful political parties change. there was a time that republicans of the party were mccarthy. they weeded that out. so party can evolve over time. right now, the cheney and the romneyss have been shoved out of this version of the party. and nikki haley grew up wanting to be a leader of that wing of the party. that wing is descended. >> where do those voters go? those nikki haley voters? >> it's the whole ball game. this is a case where you and i are programmed to assume the swing voters are those who swing from voting or not voting.

this is one where i think the most important swing voters are basically going to be people who voted who never voted democratic until 2020. people that always were bush voters or always were romney voters. those type of chamber, college-educated republican. >> we talk a lot about how they are losing those voters. are democrats doing anything to get those voters? >> i don't know. i don't see it right now. you have the little snarky things. asa hutchinson thing was such a bad look. this snarky thing that the dnc thing did. i thought it was weirder that it was the chief of staff that called to apologize. if the only reason you're running for president and running again is to save the democracy, and there is one lonely voice who wept out there and took a beating, his family took a beating. then your junior staff puts out a snarky release and your chief of staff calls to apologize.

that's not how you win those voters. asa hutchinson, this is going to sound crazy, but he is the avatar for what could be this year's swing voter, it you're not careful. >> it it because donald trump has driven everybody to the extreme? where they don't feel like they are politically able to broach the middle without alienating the left wing? >> we have seen this in other ideological fights in other countries. when you have one reactionary party, and trump has created a movement, it's political physics. so you are starting to see, i think, more folks on the left going, well, okay, we're going to have to make a binary. and this is what is the tension in the middle here with these voters. where do they go. they had a good plan to woo them in 2019 and 2020. what is his plan to woo them this time. it doesn't feel the same.

i don't think you're going to see john kasich at the democratic convention is a helpful thing. i don't know if liz cheney showing up is going to be a helpful thing because it may make her less credible with the very voter she needs to woo. >> is it a prime opportunity for a third party candidate to actually get more than 1% of the vote? >> in theory it is. the question is who is that person? i don't think -- when i talk to these independent voter who is don't want biden or trump, the idea of a veteran politician from washington is not what they are looking for. joe manchin's resume is the wrong resume. they are looking for somebody more like an arnold schwarzenegger. you see where i'm going. they want an outsider that will be either a -- they don't want politicians who have also been there. >> our friend of the "new york times" floated this idea of joe

biden dropping out at the convention. and this is his fever dream he's hoping for because he hates donald trump. dropping out of the convention and it's gretchen whitmer with her running mate. >> i have e-mails for biden mcraven. how about mark kelly and warnock? give me ab astronaut. i get what everybody says. but here's the thing. when you're an independent, it doesn't mean it is not a synonym for centrist. and i think some of the biggest misconceptions people make about these third party ideas is there's this magical centrist unicorn that's out there. >> if you're an independent, you're not a centrist, who are you? >> you're a free thinker in some ways. you're an independent for a reason. you don't feel comfortable joining either party. a the lot of independents are to the left of the democrats. bernie sanders did well with

independent voters in new hampshire. and there's some independents who are more ron paul. i think we in the media sometimes -- ross perot came across as a centrist. we did fairly well. that's one of the sloppier things we do. >> i want to bring in sam into the conversation. i know you have been he was eating a salad today. he's trying to be healthy. >> i got him up on the satellite. there's little news jargon. i want you to join the conversation. you were wriing trump's problem going into the general election, that there are so many voters that can't stand him any longer. republican and independent voters. >> first of all, it's great to be awake. i have been sleeping all day. thank you for waking me up. no, it's been a constant theme here. if you go to these nikki haley rallies, you see me talk to voters and ask a straight forward question. what would you do if it's a

binary choice, if it's trump vs. biden? and not everyone, but a the lot will say would vote for biden. there's just nothing to convince him to vote for the guy. it gets to a problem that's understated in a way because we have been focused on trump's strengths in the primary. we have not looked past it, but he does have a rail problem, maybe not with the independent voters because chuck points out it's not centrist, but he has a lot of problem with moderate republican voters. he has problem with people who left the republican party and won't come back if he's the head of it. the perceptions of him are so engrained. it's not like a first-time candidate coming out there who maybe has offended people because of the sharpness of the primary, but can can win them back. something that you saw with barack obama and hillary

clinton. there was a time we were wondering if obama could win them back. that's not the case here. trump is a known quantity. you talk to voters in new hampshire. there's a real concern among republicans that if he's at the top of the ticket, you're just going to write off a huge swath of the electorate that otherwise could have voted. i will add one little caveat. trump's people say, okay, we get it. but he brings out a lot of voter who is would have otherwise not voted too. the problem we have is that statistically, over the past couple elections at least, that's proven to not enough. he's lost the popular vote twice. republicans had a worse midterm. the trump voters, we don't necessary know if they are going to come out. if they do, if it's going to be enough. >> it's not proven successful for trump the last few cycles. let me ask you the flip side of that. what are you hearing about people moving from a vote to donald trump from donald trump to joe biden. are they thinking that that's worth it this year? are they planning on just sit ing out? >> reporter: it's a mixed bag.

some of them will sit out. the people at the haley events tended to be more receptive to the idea of biden. several of them that i talked to had voted for biden already. they would have entertained voting for nikki haley in the general if it's vs. biden. the problem biden has is who not with that swath. the problem biden has is with young voters, with young black voters, hispanic voters, progressive voters, who will just sit it out. they are not going to vote for trump. >> these are the most important voters. sam identified it correctly. it's the sit it out voters. >> and that's younger democrats. >> and some alienated independents. people but he's right. if you have shown up to haley event, you're voting. you believe in that process. it's the people not showing up tonight. >> sununu is saying he would vote for trump if it was trump. even if he was convicted. isn't that a mistake to say that

in the middle of the primary when you're trying to say haley is the right candidate? >> it depends on with what your ambition is. what's nikki haley going to do tonight? you tell me. does she think she has a future in trump's party? >> are you telling me that tim scott has ambitions other than being a senator? >> they want to stay in office. they decided it's easier to be with him to win reelection. it depends on where you are. in south carolina, you can't win with without trump. in new hampshire, you can't quite win with trump. it depends on the state you're in. and trump does bring out voters like in a south carolina that don't always come out. that's why they all run scared. >> nancy mace won with haley. i get confused. is that when she put the boom box up to trump tower? >> it's great to have you. thank you very much. i'm up against a hard out. thank you. special coverage begins now.