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defied expectations, at least from the polls, but she did not made donald trump. 11 minutes after polls close tonight, nbc news projected trump would win new hampshire the primary and make it two and a row after his resounding victory in iowa just last week. here is what members looked like at this hour. it was a result that gave the biden campaign and, opening with the president saying tonight regardless of what nikki haley does from here, the general election race has begun. and yet, nikki haley is promising to stay in the race as of tonight. >> now you have all heard the chatter among the political class. they're falling all over themselves saying this race is over. [applause] well, i have news for all of

them. new hampshire it is for in the nation. it is not last in the nation. [applause] >> she's right, it's not the last inclination. and in that pretty defiant speech, she made pretty clear she has ever intention to carry on and she has every right to carry on. for what it's worth, as she was told, can i hurt her to -- not necessarily state until south carolina, a month from now, but a promise to basically stay in until tomorrow or a little bit longer. she likely wants to give herself some space to go home to her advice was, to think about a real process for, to see if there's a real puffer. and she has to be honest about whether there is one or not. because the states coming up, including her home state of south carolina, and next on teladoc, at heavily favors donald trump. they're more like the iowa electorate than the new hampshire electorate we saw tonight. and the prime rate that comes after that is trump friendly by design. literally designed by his

supporters to benefit him. so haley might stick around for a little bit. we'll see. but if president biden it is, right trump is very likely to lead his party into another general election. tonight has made it all the more clear. tonight it's also important for us to understand what his brand of politics works for so many of his voters. what they seem to be by the vision of america that he's selling. take a look at this nbc news exit poll out new hampshire of tonight. a candidate who fights for people like me. that was the most important quality in deciding who to vote for tonight. and among those who valued that quality to most, nearly 90% voted for trump. it speaks to the perception of trump's voters that they're under siege. that trump's grievances are somehow their own. that's what he tells them, that he'll be their champion. and they believe he, donald trump, will fight for them. it's just like how evangelicals in iowa last week overwhelmingly believed the

thrice to voiced woman as a candidate is the best choice for them -- and how that live free or die state pick the authoritarian and waiting to be their nominee. it may not make sense on paper, been your mind, but what trump is pitching resonate with republican voters. tonight results are a stark reminder of that. and it looks like what might be that longest general election in history, it's important for us to understand how and why trump lock this absolutely. i've got an oh for a panel of guests standing by to talk about all of this. but let's great to steve kornacki who's still at the big board. tell us how this happened tonight. >> a couple of ingredients. here we have got three quarters of the vote and. now you see trump with a lead here of almost 11 points, 10.7 over nikki haley. i think realistically there are some areas here, the city of lebanon, durham, amherst down

here. there are going to give haley a little bit more. but they're going to be off. sit back and stand, here we expect big numbers. and realistically expect us to be a diligent trump victory. early in the night with the first exit polls and even some of the first cities and towns to report, i think we got a saint maybe this was going to be narrow, five points less. i think it's ultimately going to end up a double to trump victory. a couple things to keep in on here. number, one we've talked about police strength being with economically upscale voters, places with high concentrations of college degrees, with independent voters certainly. and the places on the map that fourth approval, a good example, go to the third largest city and the state, concord. haley winds it. good news for her. but if she really wanted to have a chance to not, she should have been at close to 60% here. she finishes just over 50%. that's a democratic here or she

double, but not nearly well enough. a surprise, she felt short in nashua, the second largest city in the state. again, demographically, they should be right in her wheelhouse. she should have won her by close to ten points if she was going to have a shot statewide. she actually listens outright to donald trump. she did an apple form in some areas that were demographically suited for her. but i think and performed and. then what happens for, her uk to the small towns, smaller towns were that median income as a bit lower, the college degree concentration is lower. she really struggled and those places like in iowa and continues over to new hampshire. here is nick which, right on the massachusetts border -- this is a working class town. it's a small town. look at that. but a 31 margin, trump is beating her. she can't sustain those losses and you say things to that degree throughout the state.

she wasn't strong enough in her strongest areas and she got blown out in places like that. here is the bottom line. take a look at the exit poll. when we ask folks -- this as it. this electorate was basically half republican and have non-republican. among those who are republicans in this primary, trump won by basically 50 points. 74 trump, 25 haley. among independent voters, they made up for 3% of the electorate, hailey 60, trump 38. and among democrats, this is an unusual member of -- the strength for her was just overwhelmingly to the extent it was a government for her, it was almost strictly on the backs of non republicans. just based on some of that rolls in the hands, the political traditions and new hampshire, the democratic makeup of new hampshire, that's with the perfect mix for nikki haley, for a candidate with the

strength she's shown. and she still is going to lose, it wouldn't, they're probably by governors. so if you take the cut apartment she had with republicans, losing them by 50 points, self identified republicans, and start going through what's next in this race. nevada is complicated -- that next contest is halle south carolina's, a month from now, if the mix is like what we showed you with republicans, independents, democrats in south carolina, she's going to get blown out. a good night for her would be a 20 point loss in south carolina. she's not shown an ability to win over core numbers, core republicans and meaningful numbers. she's not shown an ability to really tap into that blue color, working class base that donald trump has really brought into, has accelerated their movement into the republican party. she's completely fell to tap into. that if she can get it done in new hampshire, and can't get it and even single digits in new

hampshire, it's a tough question for her. go to your home state of south carolina, she's gotten some good price, gotten some positive attention. but she could be facing a massive loss in her home state. it doesn't look anything like new hampshire. >> the demographics just came to get harder and harder after. here steve kornacki, i know you've been working your tail off at that big board. thanks so much for staying up late with us. we appreciate it. joining us now, msnbc news correspondent vaughn hillyard and reporter for the boston globe -- and co-host of the weekend, michael steele. former obama campaign manager -- and former senator from missouri claire mccaskill, co-host of the podcast how to win 2024. vaughn, all start with you. you'll spend more time at trump campaign rallies, watching trump, with any of us.

i think it's important for us to understand his base of supporters. it's surprising i think to many people, important groups, they banned your mind. don't make sense on paper. tell us a lot more about who comes to his rallies, who are his most dedicated supporters -- >> there was a rally this summer and pick in, south carolina, a moral committee. it was probably something like 90 degrees. and there were tens of thousands of folks who came out to come and see donald trump. it was so striking that day. i was talking to my producer at the time, and i was, like these folks aren't going away. these folks have had the chance to see him time and time again. what would come down to is strength. in that number from the exit poll -- >> the strongman? >> the strongmen. he's fighting for people like me. when i ask folks why donald trump, it's the work strength. he's strong. donald trump it's conditioning

folks to want a leader that strong. this weekend, here in new hampshire, he said it's nice to have a strong men run your country -- and when we're talking about government, something that can be clunky, when donald trump says i can into these for, us i can stop the immigration crisis -- and a speech just as weekend, he said, when i was president i saw some homeless encampments in d.c. and ordered them gone. folks believe he has the strength to take care of this. and that is indicative of the result not only in iowa but here among registered republicans in the state of new hampshire. >> it's such an interesting thing. i appreciate you breaking it up. michael, i want to go to you. you are always a struggle. her and i think some of what we saw and the outcome tonight is maybe an underestimation of how trump might do even among groups like holly educator voters, higher income voters. some of the groups that nikki haley was really supposed to dominate in.

what do you think that's about? did we underestimate? did we get it wrong? >> i thought was always been a level of underestimation when it comes to the very thing that vote was talking about. the reality is, i cannot emphasize this enough. i've been saying this to folks, for i don't know, six years. there are a lot more people that support donald trump then we want to admit. this is a big red flag for democrats. when you look at the numbers from 16 to 20, that's not all republicans. when you look at a state like new hampshire, or iowa even, while he got 4 to 7, 48% of republicans that against him, he still got 51% given everything everyone knows about him. tonight, given everything we know about him, and the turnout that supposedly was going to come almost creating this kind of wave against donald trump,

comprised the democrats and independents, guess what? he broke that wave before it hit the shore. it didn't amount to too much of anything. and as steve aptly noted, donald trump is going to build a white with a double digit victory in new hampshire. that realty going forward and a warning sign for this general election which began tonight, which began tonight. nikki, i give it two weeks. go say face, but guess what? two weeks. because you are not going to stand on the ballot against trump in your home state and take a 20 point drubbing at a minimum. that is political suicide for a governor who wants to be president in 28. so i just think we need to be realistic about what's happening right now in new hampshire as a bellwether for what this campaign is going to look like.

don't get it twisted, people. there are a lot more people out in this country like that strongman narrative and they ain't all republicans. >> that is very true. we cannot be ostriches, as i like to say. can't keep the head in the sand. claire, let me ask you. nikki haley was very defiant tonight in her speech. it was well delivered. but she seemed to commit to staying in the race for sometime. i'm of the view, which adjusted a few minutes ago, it doesn't really mean she is committed to south carolina. it just means she is committed for now. how did you hear of that speech and what do you think of the competitions happening with a heavy team at this point in time? >> her speech made trump really mad. >> that's true, clearly. >> he lost. it on the stage, tonight. it was really awkward and ugly. it often is with him. two or three things here.

first, the polling was not accurate. the average of all that polls going into new hampshire said trump was going to win by 20. he's not going to win by 20. he's going to win by ten, 11, maybe 12. but i'm guessing it will end up somewhere around 11. plenty of republicans don't want donald trump. 25% of republicans refusing to vote for donald trump, a lot with a majority of independents can win all of that swing states that biden needs to win. and frankly, you know, all the politicians being for trump, that's in haley's five or two. that's kind of what they want to. here trump doesn't seem well to me. he looks wearing. he's angry. he's confused. i think that is going to play out. and the more he's angry, the more he's going to play out and the biden campaign to of that. and joe biden did well in a state that's really cranky with him. keep in mind democrats in new hampshire or cranky he was not participating in the primary.

they were mad at him. so the fact his name is on the ballot -- not on the ballot and he's going to end up with north of 65% of the vote, there are six of, and he may end up with 70% in a state that was kind of cranky and they had to work harder to write in his name. it's a good man for joe. bottom i think there's a lot of growth potential and frankly a lot of data, as my friend david plouffe has said tonight, outlook of data used to target their message is going for. >> no doubt about that. and they're definitely having to turn the page on this not. it turned at whether an attorney could have. james, you've been covering a lot of these for many years, even though your young of course. what if anything surprised you about the i component and thought that we've seen so far? >> look this is also a flood rice. we talked about, this is the republican party. it changed. the first four primary states, or caucus states, this was a place where he can be taken.

this is a place where donald trump was always the most vulnerable. consistently at 50% or higher in iowa -- >> and after chris christie dropped at, it was a real moment where it felt like maybe it could have been. >> but even heading into last weekend, before iowa, he's still at 45%, 44%. his win in iowa, he got a bump. the scientist got out, he caught up on through. so he's reflected. he was at 45, now he's in that list of these. the race it fundamentally change. i spent two hours going around to polling places because i love this and i love talking to voters. >> that's why you're covering it, it's good. you are in the right job. >> that's right. there were three buckets. people who would walk in and say, my mind is made up, i am trump. the second one -- by the way, these are in order in terms of this. the second, as i'm at never trumper, i'm done with trump, or he's too old.

the third bucket was way down. here it was, i like nikki haley because she's woman and she's running, and maybe they're a woman. and i like chris dance on things. we did hear the strongman thing -- in that her bucket, right now, if politics has become cultural, it is your cultural identity, i found a lot of folks this week a republican who say i'm a republican, nikki haley is not really that republican. he won iowa, it's over, why are we even have endless competition? there is a fidelity there that i think with underscore this week. >> viktor orban is having that weird moment and trump speeches, but this may be working. david plouffe, we'll take a quick break in a moment. but what is the piece of data or thing that stuck out to you as a surprise or the most interesting development from tonight's outcome? >> i think, you know, the polls i think on average clear support 20, the last global was

22. so i'm not sure that trump, this is like some great outcome. so the margin doesn't surprise me. i think the thing was surprised me jen, was less that result than his speech tonight. it is really hard to screw up a victory speech and politics. it's easier than a and basketball yet he screwed it up. and i guarantee that was a plan. i'm sure there was a speech and the teleprompter and nikki haley really got under his skin. i think you can destabilize trump. you have to be willing to play his dirty game that little bit, but you know, that surprised me. and my guess is, i agree with, you haley may not make it to south carolina, but trump's really ungracious page and unhinged speech, i think is going to make it harder for her haley to take the off ramp. and i would say. this he's basically, he's not

accepting president, but he's a quasi-incumbent president. and hyperlink over 50 tonight. and he barely got over 50 in iowa. so there is a lot of people out there who are not general election voters. they're competing in republican primaries. even republicans, not independents, who i think are in the exit polling, concerned about trump being that nominee. so for that biden campaign, if they can and a point or two of republican support over what they got in 20, that's a really important ingredient to winning. those things stood out to me. at the end of the, day haley's out of. road trump's going to be that nominee, unless something else happens -- and what trump should have said tonight is, the primaries, over nikki rent a great race, thanks to all my supporters. joe biden, i'll see you and wisconsin. but he didn't do that, personally. >> he can't help himself. >> he can't help himself. >> you are, of course, absolutely right.

he could have done a three, five, eight-minute speech that was quick, to the point. but he only has a lemitar and i let normalcy. we'll dig into this for. there will take into exit polls and much more. michael steele, claire mccaskill, thanks so much for staying up late with us. we have got a lot more to get to. we'll be back after a quick break from manchester, new hampshire. hampshire.

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tonight, donald trump became the first republican candidate to went both iowa and new hampshire since 1976, went those two states begin latent the primary calendar. and while his nomination looks more inevitable than ever, the exit polls make of him some

clues about his strength and quickness as the campaign moves forward. on the issues, trump i performed nikki haley on voters who show the economy memphis boast to them. and he won big on emigration -- but lot of people in hampshire. on the flip side, nikki haley bait trump was voters who said foreign policy or abortion or the most important of them. it more fundamental indication of voter preference was voters who believe the big lie. unsurprisingly, trump overwhelmingly won supporters who believe [inaudible] >> joining our competition and manchester, mark marie -- mark, lights, and of course we still have vaughn and james here, and david plouffe. late stick and some of the data. i gave a little bit of an

overview of her. it's you learned a lot from these exit polls, they're not perfect, but -- >> i'm a big believer and a compulsion of the electorate. the fact this was a fewer percent republican, to me donald trump did really well. won those voters by 50 percentage points. but this town from a 2% republican, that we ended up seeing an eye. and as we look ahead to south carolina and super tuesday states, that republican range is going to be in the 60s and 70s, which shows you that haley going to have a tougher path. and the other and i really think is interesting, you didn't show there, the exit poll on two opposing or supporting bans on abortion. sex is x percent said they oppose bans on abortion. this is a republican primary electorate. so when we talk about clues, as we look to hit that general election, if it is precedent biden for recess donald trump, then abortion, even in a

republican primary, you had two thirds saying, hey, i don't want you to ban abortion. >> it's so interesting. because i think that number would have been different before the supreme court decision. it feels like it was such a motivator. so, vaughn, look at this data, and kind of his exit polls. imperfect, but they tell you a lot about the electorate. anything surprise? you >> i think when you're trying to understand that republican electorate here today, i think part of the competition also has to do how much did the year of 2023, and could these candidates have won on any of these issues. floor donald trump, he takes such a cudgel to any of the developments that come out of the news. we're talking about the immigration, border security measure here, that's currently about the struck in that u.s. congress. where is donald trump? he's on the phone what the speaker of the house saying don't goodness deal. >> because he wants to run on it! >> because he wants to run on it.

and when i said emigration is their top issue, who do they turn? to the guy who doesn't want the book is a great measure. he continues, despite not being the elected official, despite congress not having to listen to, him if he continues to own so many of these issues in a way that is the fun in the republican party. when i talk to folks, he continues to just throw much bait that leader of this republican party and he never stopped. >> the immigration issue, i've only been here for four days, but it obviously popped and the exit polls. it was and haley's stump speech, trump's stump speech. explain that to us. we are very far from the mexican border right now. we are close to that northern border, which have a talks about. what's going on here? >> this is been a cultural issue. not just its own pocket. it's a cultural issue and it has been for a very long time. it's fascinating. in the state, throws two things republican you can never met. with you can never met with texas, they always had to go

lower or have the same. the second was. guns now it's just emigration. immigration has obviously emerged as the leading issue in our poll, anyway, amount republican voters because of this cultural issue. >> it's such an interesting -- mark, i, mean the other thing that's interesting about the turnout is that lower percentage of democrats, as far as that data we, have and that large number of independents. what does that tell you about, i don't know, who these people are or some of them biden people or just out to kind of defeat trump? what's it all about? >> it shows you how unique new hampshire is. compared to iowa and the other contests. that big group of independent, undeclared voters. and also because it really wasn't a democratic race or at least sanctioned democratic primary. there was the ability for people who are and undeclared voters, they can exit vote in the democrat or republican primary, they say, i'm normally

a democrat voter but i nikki haley. like we did see 6% of, according to our exit poll, we were democrats. >> double what it was last. time >> and it broke 80, 90 to 0 for haley over donald trump. so, yes, we ended up hearing from donald trump, either on his truth social and in his victory speech talking about how it was those moderates and democrats voted for nikki haley, and voting against me, to. so he was paying attention to those numbers as well. >> no doubt. vaughn hillyard, james pindell, mark murray, think you all so much for staying up late with made this evening. our live coverage from manchester continues after a very quick break. we'll be right back. rbal essences sulfate free is now packed with plant-based ingredients your hair will love. like pure aloe and camellia flower oil. and none of the things it won't. hair feels deeply nourished,

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he'll make us all proud as california senator. i'm adam schiff and i approve this message. president biden won the democrat primary tonight in new hampshire, and he wasn't even on the ballot. photos had to write in his name and he still notched and easy win over congressman dana phillips. but the president doesn't when any delegates because that day in say selected south carolina as that party's first primary because of the country's democratic -- demographics and penalized new hampshire for going ahead of. it so it's definitely symbolic but it's back to vandalism if you're in the biden campaign.

so they're putting this behind. them the president also has a statement out tonight. it is now clear, the statements, is that donald trump will be the republican nominee. and my message for the country is the stakes couldn't be higher. so for president biden, weather nikki haley is staying in or how long she's staying, is move on to the general election against donald trump. four biden and the campaign, the race is on. joining me now, former chief spokesperson for vice president kamala harris, back a host of that weekend on msnbc, summit sandals tangent, and also democratic congressman maxwell frost of florida. congressman, i wonder if, you it does fill up at a turning point. here regardless of what nikki haley the sides were hellacious, and or what happens over the next couple. the president and the campaign indicated, they're moving on to the general election. what did you make of that and do you think it's the right decision? >> logically it's the right decision. i think both of saying is, look, there has been a crawling

primary process going on on republican that side. we have been wondering how long it will be drawn out and medical distant around for a movement, the far-right, that neo-fascist movement that wants to take away peoples rights across the entire company. and it's gonna be the agenda of the republican party going into this general election. so i'm glad that president put out this press release, which really puts out this stakes, the high stakes of this election. it's democracy versus somebody who's running a campaign of retribution. he's someone who's running because he wants to protect himself and not the country. so it's really unfortunate. the other thing i'll say we got from difference is that donald trump is not as popular and his party as he may be used to be. that's a really big sign here. >> that's true. and such an important point, as we take into the state, throw some really interesting stuff in. they're talking about abortion, the opposition to the abortion ban, but lots of stuff, or could let's move on. for symone, let me bring in.

you and i have done presidential campaigns. if you're at the incumbent or if you're in position, you might traditionally want the other side to battle it out, spend money, fight it out and attack each other. and this case, it feels a little different. for that biden campaign, they're moving on. my bet is for the preference for nikki haley to move out of this, so they can make it very clear to voters, this is between them and donald trump. what do you think. ? >> not agree with, you jen. and frankly, whether nikki haley it stays or not, it's definitely joe biden, donald trump race right. now and i would just note for people at, there nikki haley is looking towards south carolina. i know there is a month between the south carolina republican primary, but the numbers don't look right. and was not paid no money for either party it's lost their home bestowed -- home state and got until.

when only five folks in history who have lost her home state in general election and gone on to win. what was donald trump, and the other was nixon and he wasn't even on the ballot and california. so will the campaigns do with the, day they had a huge, huge, huge rally in virginia. a place for democrats swept the tables in the house of delegates and state senate in the last election on the issue of abortion. abortion is going to be a motivating issue. it's an economic issue. and it's something i think the campaign rightfully is leaning into. so i think we're going to see more of that, as we should. >> undoubtedly. to your point on abortion, there are about 12 states that will likely have relative -- ballot and i should've's on abortion, florida being one of them. but there are a lot of issues that young people, key democratic --

demographics care about. congressman, what would you like us to the campaign focus? on what's going to help bring back those young but hurt the president really needs to be supporting him in order to? when >> i think there is two very important messages here. the first is talking about the great work that's been done for the past several years, like the inflation reduction act, the most amount of resources ever put towards a climate crisis, first pace of gun violence prevention legislation passed in 30 years. but the second part is very important. we have to talk about what the future looks. like what are we going to do with this next four years? how is that going to impact people in florida, in north carolina, across the in her country? i was just saying -- they're very excited. but when i spoke with some specific folks, especially some of our undocumented volunteers, they were telling me that the choice is simple. it's towards someone who's

going to fight to reform the immigration system or someone who wants to depart my family. and moderate taylor green said it on the committee i sit. on day one, when donald trump is elected, there will be mass deportations and she smiled. she is talking about our teachers, the people who run our communities, she's talking about americans. and that's what the choice is. >> it's so important. you know who head donald trump standing by his side? moderate taylor greene, this week in new hampshire. it's really interesting. congressman maxwell frost, thanks so much for staying up with us tonight. we appreciate your insight and your voice either. tonight symone, i'm impressed with your recollection of history. stay right where you are. we have more to discuss. coming up next, donald trump but comment that republican nobody may not be great news for lots of republicans trying to win their election next year. we'll talk about that, after a quick break.

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surprise victory in 2016, his presence as the republican leaders being at mid negative from the party. and 20, attain republicans lost the house to democrats in large parts due to close work and objects driven by separate waters and a spike in voter enthusiasm. in 2020, democrats want a trifecta, keep in the house, winning that senate, and of course the white house. and in 2022, republicans historically underperformed in large part because trump backed candidates and competitive races, who won their primaries but went on to lose in the general election. the pattern here is that maga base, the driving force and that republican party right now will absolutely turn out for donald trump. the other side of that cohen is for all that mega devotees, there's been more voters unwilling to vote for trump, or more importantly unwilling to show up and vote against. tim that will take off members of donald trump's own party. >> do you still believe his

tech people down, governors races? >> first question, trump on the ticket heard down ballot races. >> i have people who came up to me who said they voted for reagan and have been conservative for a whole life and said they don't want to vote for trump again. he's got to solve that. i think there is an enthusiasm problem overall, and i think there are some voters that have checked out at this point and you've got to find a way to get them back. >> with donald trump, republicans have lost almost every competitive election. we lost the senate, we lost the house. we lost the white house. we lost in 2018. we lost in 2020, and we lost in 2022. >> that was nikki haley tonight. so there we go. david plouffe and symone sanders-townsend are back with me, and joining the conversation is ted miller, the

communications director for jeb bush's 2016 campaign and is now a writer for the bulwark. tim, i'll start with you. you are the first mate must conversation. it seems like a catch 2022. trump brings in voters -- republicans have lost three times now on this strategy. help it is this really for down-ticket races? >> i'll try to bring some high energy as the fresh meat, jen. why are they doing it again? because they like donald trump. i don't get. it's it's coat, but -- republican voters are extremely excited about donald trump. there is an equal de o voters who are turned off and disgusted by him then turn out. that's what democrats have done well in off year elections. you didn't get into special elections, because that

democratic base is so excited to vote against the maga candidate. i don't know if you suffered through that california senate debate last, not that republican on the ballot there, steve kirby, wouldn't even say if he's voting for trump. that shows you the trouble these guys get in. i'm thinking of dave -- in the pennsylvania senate race. -- with trump on the pellets, you can't do it. you get asked about trump every day, have to turn up and campaigned with trump, get asked about crazy stuff with trump stands to. him so it is a problem for republicans, no doubt. >> david, we've heard a number of his opponents acknowledge that. so i think we're in agreement. here you'll front lots of campaigns -- who are the candidates? tim mentioned bob casey. either others who can benefit from plastering donald trump over their campaign? heads our we going to say this

all across the country and these swing districts and swing states? >> i don't know if it will be the main method, but shortly for swing voters, suburban voters, even maybe 58 year old what republican men. there are an emmet with donald trump to, right? i think sparred senate and house candidates will figure out, just as the biden campaign, will help to target those people. and trump is kind of like that political version of a cooler in las vegas. everything he touches goes cold with the republican party. even when he won in 16, it was a black spawn event. he won the presidency, getting 46.1% of the vote nationally and won some battleground states -- so,. yeah i agree with him. i think they like. him a lot of them thought he won in 2020, some of them think he's a president in exile.

but i think basically the folks who are either running in battleground states, or lost in 18 and 20 and to, do they have the scorers. trump has been political death and there is nothing to suggest that this is a guy who is either interested or capable of growing his vote coalition. he'll ride or die with his maga core. and for a guy that needs to think about a way to add in six or seven states, including states that have senate races, key governor races and tons of house races. and don't forget, the house will probably be decided in new york and california, plus trump is certainly going to get tattooed. >> it's so tricky for these candidates. i almost feel bad for them. not to bet, a little. bed symone, i'm enjoying this fancy free ron desantis we saw and that clip. he alluded to and problem out

there, if trump's the nominee. what do you make of that and where do you think of for the biden campaign, thinking about trying to turn out and engage people, you're taking advantage of that? >> i think it is a concern the trump campaign should have, i don't know if it's a concern donald trump himself sheers, but i also see that clip and i see ron desantis and governor sununu and the former governor haley and all of those individuals, even just today, governor had it said in an interview on another and work, she thought donald trump was still fit to be president. ron santas interest donald trump, hasn't swung it, but interesting. governor someone says if nikki haley who does not win, he'll support donald trump. -- folks should be concerned about, republicans who don't like new hampshire -- donald trump but will vote for

him anyway. those voters want to support a republican candidate, even if the person is donald trump. so if i'm the biden campaign, i'm looking at those soft trump republicans, if you will. they're not never trumpers, but there, or ma'am, i don't know. trumpers folks looking at how to the. base how to drop and this is around black voters, black women, black men, younger officers across the. poor woman, period. separate woman especially which are more diverse now -- and the oldest millennials or 40, 40. one how can i grow drive up those numbers to ensure kind of ember, let's be honest, october when people start early voting in some of, has that the enthusiasm is up there and folks are not banking on soft trump support? >> you just gave the biden team about 100 things on there to do list for tomorrow morning,

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coverage of the 2024 new hampshire primary. i'm here on the ground and manchester were earlier tonight, nbc news predicted that former president donald trump will go two for two in the race for the republican nomination. here is more the results in new hampshire stand right. now trump one pretty convincingly a state basically ten men for his opponents, nikki haley. most tailor-made of any of the states anytime soon. these results were enough for president joe biden to look past and i instruct on to that general election. he put out a statement saying it's now clear that donald trump will be the republican nominee. and my message is the stakes could not be higher. game on. so the president hasn't. enough biden is moving.

on the campaign's moving on to the general election. whether or not nikki haley stays in that race. she said tonight, by the, way that she is. but my hunch is she'll have some heart conversations with her advice in the next few days if not the next few hours. it might be hard to believe -- that knicks states on the primer color only becomes more trump friendly from here on. up so president biden might be right. this think maybe over before it began. for his part, donald trump is still digging in. and at noticed a slight shift in tone from him tonight. first, let's listen to trump after his victory in iowa last week. showing some uncharacteristic -- race >> i want to congratulate run and nikki for having a good time together, we are all having a good time together. and i think they both just --

>> a temporary normal tone there. for a brief. here was trump saying a very different to, i think it's fair to say. >> i said, i can go up and i consider everybody, oh, thanks for the victories, wonderful. or i can go up insight, who the hell was the impostor that went up on the stage before and, like, claimed a victory? she did very poorly, actually. she had to. when i have here, if he promises to do it in a minute or less, but the only person more angry fan let's say me but i don't get too angry, i get even -- >> if this is actually the start of that general election, trump is probably going to need the kinds of voters who supported haley. and that may not be the best way to win them of, what he just. did john it may not here in manchester, deputy managing editor for politico -- also former about campaign manager and my former boss david plouffe, communications

director for jeb bush's 2016 campaign -- tim miller, and co-host of the msnbc podcast how to 2024 win, jennifer palmieri. let's pull up, if we can, and the control room, that clip of haley and her talking today. because clearly she got under his skin. and i think we should play, when you're ready. let me know. okay, let's play it. >> with donald trump, you have one bout of chaos after another. this court case, that controversy, this tweet, that senior moment. you can't fix joe biden's chaos with republican chaos. the other day, donald trump accused me of not providing security at the capitol on january 6th. [laughter] >> geriatric! >> i've long cold for competency test for republicans over the age of 75. trump claims he had to do

better than me and one of those tests. maybe he, would maybe he wouldn't. but if he thinks that, he should have no problem standing on a debate stage with may. [applause] >> so basically, that, i think may have made trump lose his mind a little bit. which means it's not hard to do. that but we saw kind of different shades of trump. the eye versions, maybe elsewhere, the folk ten-hole a few books ago, he was a little normie for a while and there. what does that tell you, sam, about what the trump campaign has to kind of manage as we move into that general election? >> there is a certain irony i guess and trumping up there and saying, you can't claim victory if he didn't, when went all thursday that was what he exactly did after the 2020 elections. i think it's a frustration. i think, basically, let trump people when they talk -- they want to get with. they say that writing on the wall. they say the math.

they say the same things we do. this primaries not over and the saints that -- the delegates have been awarded. the path gets more difficult for highly going. for -- it's gonna be in the 60s in south carolina, she's not even on the ballot and nevada. that tim signals your in that way of us move resources towards the general election. wait at want to spend time to miss. we don't want to spend advertising money doing this. we want to unload on joe biden. that's where the profession is. a lot of this as old personal for. trump everything's personal. he can fathom the idea that this person who he pointed to the u.n. won't kiss that ring, is ron desantis. it >> clearly. palmieri, when i saw nikki haley go out tonight, the first thing i thought was palmieri think this is a good idea, she's getting ahead of. things her speech was good, i thought.

if you're nikki haley right now, what are you talking with her campaign advice about? what are those conversations look like? what are they considering about the decision that needs to be met in the next couple of weeks? >> she did a good job tonight, by ourself sometime -- why didn't she get on a plane and go to new hampshire right away into a rally when she landed and try to show, manufacture, that's what you have to, to manufacture momentum from iowa to new hampshire? and she just didn't do any of those things. it's not at fault like she did great. she came out early, when it looked like some margin of victory, trump's margin of victory wasn't that high. she gave a justification for what she should stay in. does it hold up over the course of that next month? it holds up for tonight. she is doing better. it's truly a two-person race. she's gaining ground. she's certainly performed better than the polls

suggested. she can set your hated to my home state. what candidate -- i'm not going to drop out in a two-person race, hated to my home state. and she talked him a little bit trying to get him on the debate stage. there is nevada, the caucus, the prime, where she is not on the ballot -- it's bonkers to explain. that's not really an option for. her and does she want to lose so badly in south carolina, her home state, i don't know. but i think they certainly have the week to figure it out. maybe after an event is the time to drop out, but -- maybe they'll hang in there and go all the way to super tuesday. it's not too far after south carolina. and hang in there for -- but there is not a lot of attractive options for them to consider right now.

>> it's so. tricky and it's interesting because that delicate strategy david plouffe, that was 2000. tight 70% of delegates will be decided by the end of march. you get into a big winner take all in mid march. explain to us here, you know more about this than i do, what a delicate strategy for haley doesn't work. >> that math isn't there. these elections haven't happened but if we look at the demography of what we learned in these first two and look at south carolina, then super tuesday, there'll be some states where haley might get north of 40 and she'll get a chunk of delegates but trump's going to have a massive delegate lead. and maybe that district of columbia, maybe vermont, they're on a two plus right now hallie can get over 50% of the votes. so all of us would not take o states, the democratic side is proportional all the way

through. dim -- republicans, it when it takes all back in -- listen, i don't think trump speaks not it's going to make it easier for her little gaps. i think she maybe got under his skin, that motivation to stay in. i think there is new ways to run some sign ups against. and i think they're probably also, thinking we stay and get some delegates and march and whatever something happens healthwise? this isn't a person who looks super well right now. verbally or physically, and the speech tonight was just bonkers, political malpractice. now, we are familiar with that but really stupid in my view. at the end of the day, she's probably. listen. maybe a week before south carolina, maybe two weeks before. i don't think she wants to lose her home estate 7:30. so maybe that's when she gets out. but i do think they have to look towards march, we'll get

some delegates on top of what we got in iowa and new hampshire and will be standing if something happens. that it's not a particular winning strategy. what trump should have done tonight is ignored nikki haley. say, nikki rent a great race and now it's me and joe biden. i can't understand why he didn't do that. maybe tomorrow -- it puzzling tonight. >> it was very odd. he also polled tim scott on stage. there was outlook of strange things happening in the speech. one of the things, tim, that is close to take away. plouffe met this point earlier. it's easy to get under trump skin. we all know this. we've learned a lot about trump and that last decade has been front and center for all of us. what do you do with that if you're the biden campaign, if you're running super pac ads and on the outside and trying to kind of drive him to the point of showing the public who he is on a regular basis? >> we're about to stand and the peril of the longest general

election campaign in american history. plenty of time to get under his skin, using tactics such as this. i think that biden campaign, that's not exactly the real strong suit for good reason, like to take higher ground. but there will be other surrogates for biden, other groups are they're able to troll trump and get under his skin and get right from him. i wonder why we are doomed to re-live 2016 over and over again and why nikki haley is doing exactly the same thing all of that losing candidates did in 2016. why wait until your campaign is on its last legs to troll donald trump in such a way to get a response from him? this is very, chris patients night was good, i agree with jen, but it's kind of reminiscent of rubio coming after trump about his little hands after the campaign was already over. where was this at labor day? right? there is no campaign, donald trump has essentially won this nomination and there was no

campaign run against him. so to me that's pretty maddening, especially when you see the guy tonight that looks very weak, very insane, not particularly dominant. you think somebody would have, i don't know, try to beat him. but nikki haley and ron desantis didn't really know. that >> i think in that one i am hour when we say he's very insane and the hands, marco rubio, working as way. back to a developmental, a big one, we haven't talked to you about this, yet jennifer palmieri, the biden campaign doesn't visit it's the general election, we're moving forward. they did a big abortion event today. obviously the president did too big democracy speeches. what do you think that looks like an, do you think it was the right choice by? then >> we have talked about this, jen. i think they came into january saying came on. he did that valley forge speech, that sits as the stakes of the election on general fans, on the anniversary of january 6th. they have been playing close

attention to early primary states, battleground states. three trips to pennsylvania in ten days in january, head south carolina. and then it and to see, that new hampshire primary. so you're a little nervous about what's going to happen on that democratic side of the new hampshire primary. so the smart afford to have this big proportion rights event, a lot of enthusiasm, big crowd and that was not in d.c., it was in a battleground-ish, purple-ish state of virginia. they announced that our friend jennifer dylan and mike donilon will be leaving the white house to join julie chávez rodríguez the campaign manager of the biden campaign. people are happy to say. that it's not surprising, this is that normal pink that happens in a white house, senior advisers leave to join

the campaign. but it shows focus. right? and then that third thing, that went in new hampshire tonight was really important. 67%, to ask new hampshire voters to come out and write in joe biden after he dissed the state by taking away their first in that nations that, this the primary. that's a big ask. and that could have gone badly. i mean, it's the kind of thing nobody actually worries about other than the campaign, and they did a great job. the president cold that congressional delegation in new hampshire tonight to thank everyone. he's good at being gracious. finally, to declare this is the general election. and it's, like game on, written to go. i think haley stepping in is fine for biden because she is obviously getting under his skin. we are learning important things every time for us and election. i but there are saying, telling

all of us, he's the guy we're going to train our fire on him. >> yeah, and they're telling everyone, it's him, though. don't be wishful thinking about an alternative to him, which i think is also important. we do have to sneak in a very quick break. but everyone is sticking around for a. thank you, everyone, again, our special late night coverage of the new hampshire primary continues after this. stay with us. we will be right back. >> for a lot of people, politics is way too personal. it is not personal for me. i voted for trump twice. i was proud to serve america in his cabinet. i agree with many of his policies. i decided to run because i am worried about the future of our country, and because it is time to put the negativity and chaos behind us. even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain.

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talk to your doctor ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ with donald trump's win in

new hampshire, we are one step closer to a likely rematch of the 2020 election. but for a candidate who essentially by axes the incumbent, it's not exactly the margin to expect, especially considering that the actual incumbent president, joe biden, won handily tonight in new hampshire in a write in campaign. and digging further into exit polls, it's possible that donald trump could have an enthusiasm problem. according to exciples from nbc news, 62% of voters in tonight's primary do not

consider themselves part of the maga movement. 38% of tonight's voters would still be dissatisfied if trump were to win the nomination. that's a pretty significant share. and worth discussing at least. it means there is a real question about how many of the more than 85,000 voters who voted for nikki haley would be willing, let's say, to vote for biden. and if that trend is not just in new hampshire, but one, maybe we are going to look at nationwide. back with me is politico deputy editor sam stein, and joining our conversation here and -- correspondent shane rocker, david plouffe, and jennifer palmieri are back with me here is. well let's start with you, here, shane. also, you have a suit. you are dressing up our table. >> humiliating. >> bringing some class here. this is obviously an outcome that -- but there is interesting data for the biden campaign here as well. it's more democrats voting in this primary tonight than typical, double the number for the past that, means, i think

you could argue they're -- motivated to vote against trump. what else are your takeaways from reporting here about some of these nikki haley voters? whether they would be willing to vote for biden if trump is the likely nominee? >> what we have seen both in new hampshire, and in iowa, is the same coalition that left the republican party, and voted with joe biden in 2020 still has concerns about donald trump. he is weakest in those suburban, well educated areas around cities. if you look at the map so far, tonight the best where nikki haley is performing strongest, that's a warning sign. it's one that she tried to blair about when she gave that sort of quasi-contention concession speech. and that's a concern for donald trump's campaign, right? he has run up the margin in rural areas. he did in 2016, to win. joe biden cut into some of those margins in 2020. and these early results show that, if he's going to win again in 2024, donald trump is going to need to swell that vote in rural areas, because he is kept in the suburban areas.

that that is where nikki haley's strongest, and -- ron desantis was stronger, this is part of the republican party, the traditional part of republican party, that has left under donald trump. and he needs to win back more voters in other parts of the state. >> yeah, it's important to remember, we talk a lot about the coalition, the people biden needs to bring back. he -- really did beat donald trump by 7 million votes in 2020. sam, you wrote a story about independents and maybe some warning signs, it's fair to say. tell us more about your reporting. >> it basically mirrors what shane is saying there. i think it's worth remembering, that in 2016, when donald trump was moving on to the scene, in this state too, his coalition was very different than what we saw tonight. he was actually making appeals to independent and moderate voters, in new hampshire, now, those voters may not be your traditional independence. they may be conservative leaning. and also, they may have drifted over these past years, and become more trumpist. but tonight, his appeal was really centered on

self-identified conservative voters. if you look at the data points, the moderates broke against, him alarmingly, if you are the trump campaign. most people, if you talk to him during the course of the week, they are not just pro haley voters. they are anti trump voters. you asked them, like, what would it take for you to vote for donald trump in the election? and -- said, i'd rather die. >> right. it's very dramatic, yeah. >> you are not going to vote for trump, i get it. there are some other data points. i thought this was interesting. if trump was convicted, would he be fit to serve? in new hampshire, the voters who supported haley were unanimously against. it the voters who, they said, 14%, yes. 84% no. that shows real, deep-seated anger and angry about his trials. it suggests that this electorate, at least the ones that were voting for haley, are not going to be surefire trump voters, should he become the nominee. if you are trump, look. there is good ways to spin. this you have obviously made history as the first not income

a republican to win his first two states. you've done it by big margins in both states. but someone else was saying this. he's a quasi-incumbent, to a degree. he is the guy the republicans -- if your competition is getting 44%, there are warning signs there. >> yeah, there are some warning. signs and -- there is a trove of data in here, as there's an outcome from an election. what were your takeaways from -- there are some that are bad for trump, some that are compelling an interesting for biden. what did you take out of the data we saw so far? >> the big thing, i think, would be, compared to 2020, where biden did -- enough republican voters and independents who leave lean republican, that's part of -- that close race. and that was during covid, we, are i think there was a lot of higher income college educated republicans and independents, who were turned off by trump's performance, or lack thereof.

i think the pool of voters that the biden campaign can target these much larger than in 20. and from a campaign perspective, that is usually beneficial to them. so, i don't know if it is double. it's probably not quite that. but in wisconsin, arizona, georgia, pennsylvania, michigan, you've got core democratic voters, and you want to make sure those turn out. then you look at republicans, particularly women, but not just women. independents. and moderate vote generally. in america, the person who wins the moderate vote almost always wins the presidency. and some of the polls that i think got people very worried back at the end of last year, even some of them now, i think, probably showed trump over performing what he has also going to. get that's a benefit for the biden campaign, is, you look at iowa. and new hampshire. by the way, this is not republican general election voters. these are people that participate in primaries. so, if you are expanding it out

to people likely to vote in a general election -- and of course, we live in a dade world of data and modeling -- so, you can model in every state who looked just like those voters, who are saying that -- or voted for haley. but the people who, particularly, are saying that, wouldn't vote for trump, despite being a republican primary, that is data goals for the biden campaign. >> yeah, it's so interesting. they have so much they can pull from these primary races, the lessons learned from the general. so, tim, one of the groups of people who have not been fully out there entirely is some of these former trump staffers, former trump officials, some of whom have spoken out at-limited times. i'm not saying they would appeal to all these nikki haley voters. but what is the best strategy with them? what can be done with them? they may not want to be at the convention with joe biden. but what is the best way to get them out there, to kind of show these voters, look, there is a bridge, come over? this is our side --

a better side. >> yeah, i wouldn't hurt for them to be at the convention with joe biden, maybe. >> they're invited. -- that role, but still. >> yeah, look. i think what we learned -- republican voters against trump. what you learned is that these gettable voters want to hear from people like them. so, they don't really want to be lectured to by never trumper d.c. consultants like me. >> right. >> they want to hear from people who also like some things about trump. so, i think -- worked for trump, and voted for trump in 2020, vocally making the case to these nikki haley voters who are going to be an important swing demographic, that they saw them firsthand, and what these guys suspect about trump is even worse than what they believe. i think that is going to be a compelling message, to a certain demo of republican primary voters, and hopefully they can be used. i do -- if you will help me, there's one little damper i have to put all all this. >> it's okay, damper us. >> i'm sorry.

they are green shoots for biden, no doubt. and these nikki haley voters are important, no doubt. but donald trump, three years ago, was impeached. there were republican members of the senate -- in the first time ever, in his own party -- when they announce his candidacy, his family would not even show up. and now he is about to win the biggest landslide in the history of the republican primary in modern times. so, there are some weak signs, no doubt. there are some signs for biden to exploit, no doubt. but it is alarming given his record, just how clear this victory. as i understand the caveat that he's a quasi-incumbent, but still. there is not really any parallel in the republican side. >> classic tim miller right there. >> look, it's important to recognize, as tim just alluded to, this is quite a come back. >> oh, yeah. >> he just made a major comeback. he's now, likely, going to be the republican -- >> there was polls in new hampshire, from the beginning of the primary, he was trailing on desantis.

it was not a foregone conclusion we would end up in the spot. but things happen. primarily, he went on trial with the indictments in the -- base right around here. >> that's a perfect tee up to what we will be talking, right after we take a quick break. david plouffe, thank you so much for all your time, analysis, and staying up late, i really appreciate it. up next, we are going to dig into that exit poll sam mentioned earlier, about how republicans are feeling about the possibility that donald trump will be convicted of a crime. we will talk about, that coming up next. ext. (sniffing) ♪ ♪ ♪ i know my old spice long-lasting scents anywhere. that's me, mr. cole. let's talk about a raise. ( ♪♪ )

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hampshire tonight, the next big event on donald trump's counter could very well be an appearance in court. second trial, stemming from e. jean carroll's defamation lawsuit against him, is expected to begin again on thursday. of course, the former president has essentially been using his court appearances as an extension of his presidential campaign. and lots of republican voters are not too concerned about his legal peril, there are many who. our next poll new hampshire shows that 42% of voters said they would not consider donald trump fit to be president if he were convicted of a crime. so, the gop might want to consider this. should trump wrap up the nomination as quickly as he wants to, which is very soon, and if he is then found guilty in a criminal trial, the party may be stuck with a candidate

that lots of american say they would not support. sam stein, shane goldmacher, jennifer palmieri, and tim miller are all back with me. sam, let me start with you. because we are kind of moving, maybe, into this general election he, rapidly. especially if you listen to joe biden. trump has been running this campaign in a courtroom. he's been doing, spending more time in a courtroom that he has been hugging babies, picking up babies, maybe for the better, then doing that. does he shift that now? or do you think he continues to run the same strategy moving forward? >> that's a good question. first of, all i want to do a tim miller where you step back and acknowledge the weirdness of it all. >> do a step back. it is weird. acknowledge that -- we will call a day tim miller. >> do a tim miller. >> you think about the idea that a presidential candidate would deliberately take himself off the campaign trail, to go sit in a court where he's on trial for defaming a woman --

accused of sexual assault. it does not really compute in normal -- >> he then is going to attack and literally posted 40 times on truth social about. >> right. that's not like, in traditional -- you would not find a strategist who would recommend doing. that >> correct. >> but it worked for trump in the context of this primary. does it work for trump outside the primary, which i think is what you are getting at, which is, if this thing starts to schiff with nikki haley gracefully goes out, does he stop doing this stuff? and i actually don't know. part of what is motivating him is general anger over the trials and, obviously, he feels he is being unfairly prosecuted and maligned and all that stuff. i think his team is very transparent about the idea that he's also, to his political advantage, in the context of a republican primary. they fund-raise well. they watched his every single competitor, almost every single competitor -- not chris christie or asa hutchison, rally behind, him and as many said, they would pardon him. but if you look at these numbers, yeah, republican

primary voters are cool with. it in fact, supported -- over it. but the general electorate finds it appalling. and frankly, probably will not vote for him if he's convicted. >> oh, go ahead. >> even in those numbers that you see what share of republicans might have concerns if he gets convicted, i think what we have seen is that so many republican voters eventually come to agree with donald trump, what he -- >> removes the goalposts and they run after him, so far, in the base. >> in the base, but they've been enough to likely get him the nomination for a third consecutive election. one of my favorite things i found in the exit polls, in iowa, was the number from 2016 to 2024. so, in 2016, he was in fifth place among voters who cared about a candidate who shares my values. he won only 5%. and this, time he dominated that group. he won 43% of people. so, donald trump's rallies did dramatically change the last eight years. >> in fact, there are a lot of things that happened that, you would argue, were worse value

proposition actions. you know? >> and yet, they think the republican party base things, whatever he stands for is what they stand. for so, the positions on now, if he's convicted, i think those are things that could change over the course that, given, middle of the road is absolutely going to be turned, off by the base of a publican party -- >> the electorate is much bigger, though, on then the base. so, jennifer palmieri, the campaign -- this is one of the things that people like about him, that maddens, anger sometimes hard-core progresses and supporters, in that he does not speak about the legal cases. he does not wade into them, the campaign does not really do that either. do you think that is their strategy moving forward? how did they deal with? this it's going to be such a dominant, dominant issue over the next several months. >> i'm thinking about the summer of 22, when the jan sixth committee happened had their hearings. and i know that the campaign will do with the campaign will

do. we both know -- you used to have to answer questions about how the president, president biden would not involve himself in these kinds of court cases. and i don't think that they will do it. but i think that there will be a concentrated effort to tell, as these trials are going on, tell voters a larger story about it. the january 6th committee was so good at telling that narrative. and they had a big impact. so, it is kind of hard to process, because we certainly have not seen this before. but i think, when these trials do start happening, and i heard just anecdotally, watching the coverage today, people bring up, specifically, the classified documents at mar-a-lago as being a concern. and obviously, jan sixth, meaning concern, so many people who voted for haley said that they refused to buy in to the

big lie. that jan sixth committee, at that jan six hearing is supposed to start in the spring, possibly even march. and this is a whole other dynamic that is going to get unleashed, that we have not seen before. but it could be a really big deal. the campaign is not going to ignore. the biden campaign is very aware of what's. happening is just a question of who the right voices are that is talking about him. >> and how they talk about. yeah. exactly. you can kind of do this in a sweeping way. like, he did in the democracy speeches. it's interesting how they turn up the volume on a little bit. so, tim, let me point this question to you too. u.n. palmieri and i are all recovering political communicators in many ways. one of the things you have to think about often is how you stay in your message, but how you kind of break through a dominant storyline. right? how are you present in it in a way that is advantageous. so, what would you be doing if you are the biden campaign, about all these legal cases that are going to dominate the

airwaves and oxygen over the next couple of months? >> it is part of the democracy message, right? >> yeah. >> it is part of the maintaining normalcy message. i don't think i would be afraid to talk about, if i was the biden campaign. that does not necessarily mean that joe biden has to be standing outside the courthouse in new york, with vaughn hillyard, whoever is reporting out there, doing the man on the street interviews about, it necessarily. but he can talk about it, right? he can give interviews. you can speak about it from the white house. the democrats can have surrogates there that our bird dogging donald trump, at his various trials. there can be paid advertisements that are run in some of these key states, that highlight some of the crazy -- i think there are a lot of voters out there that don't even realize that donald trump has been civilly, at least, convicted of rape. >> yeah. -- >> i think there are people out there that don't realize. i think you can write adds to

that effect. there's a lot that can be done. and this campaign is going to be run with that is the context. >> sam stein, shane goldmacher, jennifer palmieri, tim miller, i know you all would like to stay another hour -- >> when [laughter] >> we could, we could. thank you all for staying up late with us, and making clear all the results tonight. what's coming -- up next, the conversation i've been looking forward to all night. no one knows more about these candidates, i promise you, in the states they are competing in, then the nbc news team embedded. stay next. ay next. he hits his mark —center stage—and is crushed by a baby grand piano.

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from my experience working on campaigns, and i've done a few of them, i know that no one knows more about these candidates, i promise you, and these early states in the campaign embeds. and this year there are nine of them for nbc news and they've been working around the clock, i mean that literally, traveling miles, cars, trains, planes, walking to get to the next campaign event. and i'm so excited because four of them were able to stay up very late with us tonight. and joining me now are four of our msnbc campaign embeds, -- who's covering senator tim scott's presidential campaign, a mixed bag of everything else. jay trailer who's covering the donald trump campaign, greg heye covering nikki haley's campaign, and emma barnett, who's been living in new hampshire for her last seven

months preparing for this night. i also learned you all had a text chain with each other where you shared things which i really want to be on. let me start with you, because as i just, mentioned you are on tim scott's campaign. you obviously covered his rise, fall, support of the trump team. tell us a little bit about what you learned about in his journey in about new hampshire over the last several weeks. >> -- was an interesting one, because time in new hampshire prove detrimental to his campaign in some aspects. i think one thing you learn about the new hampshire voters here is it is a unique culture here. the voters take very seriously the fact they are the first the nation primary. and that informs how they interact with candidates and take advantage of having access to these candidates. and they will take the opportunity, if you're someone like tim scott, that strolls into a diner, to hit you with a really tough question. like if you can stand up to trump, are going to stand up xi jinping to? >> you can just have a

cheeseburger. here you have to be ready for it. >> you can't. and they really take the responsibility serious. and you know, there are many times when if you are dealing with a candidate like a tim scott, like nikki haley, who are at times not the most open with the press oftentimes the way you got that closer into their brain was taking advantage of a voter, asking a question that is happens to be news that day. and that's how you got the information. and that's something that personally i have not seen it any other state. >> yeah, it's such an interesting. point voters ask really great questions, which is such a good point. so jake, you have been giving the task of following the trump campaign. and one of the things we've been talking about a little bit this evening is how important is it to understand the demographics and dynamics of the trump coalition of people who support him. so tell us a little bit about that, anything that surprised, what's going on as they look ahead to south carolina? >> yeah, sure, so four embeds are sitting here. we all have this unique opportunity to really understand our candidate in a strange way.

we know the words often before they say, that we understand the emotions. so looking at donald trump tonight here in new hampshire, i had two big takeaways. one was that he was very pleased with the election results here in the granite state, a wide margin of victory. secondly he was not so pleased with nikki haley's speech and her saying she would not be bowing out of the race, should be sticking it through. >> he was clearly displeased i think it's safe to say. very diplomatic. >> the entire time, from the moment he stepped on the stage for his victory speech, which is typically emblematic of welcoming the party in a message of unity. he said this is not gonna be a normal victory speech. and the radar of the time, he was very staunchly critical of nikki haley, saying she was an impostor, saying that she falsely claimed victory in the election. so now as donald trump looks ahead to nevada, south carolina. he's finding that himself in this interesting position where he's threading this needle of trying to look ahead to a general election and make this pivot. but also being stuck in a

primary election well there is a potential primary candidate. that exists. >> yeah, both dynamics are so important. it sounds like you will be following, reporting it to nbc news about all of them. okay, you've had a bit of a up and down, not you personally, the nikki haley, let me rephrase that, the haley campaign. because just a few weeks ago, when chris christie dropped, out of felt like maybe she would be on the rise. and tonight, she did better, i would, say that some expectations, but did not beat him. tell us a little bit about that campaign, what their vibes are internally right now, what you are hearing from them. >> yeah, they are feeling really confident about the fact they are going to south carolina next. when you consider the fact that you look at some of the external polling that came out here in new hampshire and they did well. her whole game plan was to do better then iowa. she wanted to have a stronger showing. and they feel like they've done that. but now, she has to create an opportunity where she has an opportunity to say, okay, there

is a binary choice between herself and donald trump. that is what she's always desired to present to the american people, and now she has. that and now she designs in south carolina, her home state, but one where donald trump has had a lot of success in in the past. but she feels and love the fact that she can be the underdog, and you know people look at the polling in south carolina and say there are going to be challenges there, nikki haley sees that and says that is an opportunity to present myself as showing that i have longevity in this race. >> it is going to be an interesting one to watch, because it shows who's going to be, and we'll see if she's, and she'll be back. she is a rally tomorrow? >> she does, in charleston. >> we will hear about it from you. emma, you gave us a great rundown of where to go out and eat in new hampshire, so thank you for that, first of all. thank you for that. tell us a little bit about the state. it is a unique state, the demographics are interesting and compelling. was going to be a good state

for nikki haley. what have you learned about new hampshire and kind of the demographics of the state the last time you've been? here >> jen, if i were to use one adjective to describe the voters here in new hampshire, it would be strategic. and that came into a clear focused picture this afternoon when i was at different polling locations speaking to different voters. republicans who decided to vote for donald trump, many of them told me they don't like his personality, that they like what he has to say about immigration. they like the economy under his presidency, and therefore strategically voted for a person who they knew versus someone who was an unknown international context. now when it comes to undeclared voters, they are the ones who really shaped the new hampshire primary. because they make up about 40% of the electorate. and they get to choose whether they take a democratic or republican ballot. that is really key here in new hampshire. and it's honestly been a bit of a rollercoaster following the new hampshire primary because if there was a state that nikki

haley could really take it home to, it would've been new hampshire, because she is a moderate candidate backed by a moderate governor compared to somebody like donald trump. and we saw her crowds, greg and i used to cover events up in north country, where there are 30 people there back in july. and at some of her latest events, there are 800 to 1000 people. but when you're competing against a former president with the name idea that donald trump has, that makes it really difficult. >> it's very challenging. let me just say, again there is no group that is hardworking, i promise, you probably in nbc news in this group, and your other five embed colleagues. so thank you for all the reporting. thank you for all of the insights and everything you guys have done over the last couple of months, longer than that, good luck on the trail ahead. that does it for me tonight. there is much more new hampshire primary coverage coming up after this quick break. for now, goodnight, good morning, good middle of the night, all that from manchester. manchester

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