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in 2016, donald trump won the new hampshire primary by a. lot he had just lost in iowa, but in 2016 when he came to new hampshire, he beat his nearest rival, john kasich, by about 20 point. ahead of that new hampshire victory in 2016, trump had racked up endorsements from precisely zero republicans in congress, none in the house, none in the senate, not even any sitting governors either. so contrast that you have her experience in 2016 for trump with what has just happened tonight. as of tonight, heading into today's new hampshire primary, a majority, more than half of all republicans in the house

and senate had already endorsed trump. again, but this point in the race in 2016, that number was zero. he's now got a majority of elected republicans in washington, former presidential contender tim scott was that latest high-profile senator to endorse trump before tonight, on friday, after ron desantis dropped out this weekend he too endorsed trump, the 11th sitting governor to do so. and tonight, in the wake of trump's victory in new hampshire, senat john cornyn has said republicans need to unite around one candidate and that candidate should be donald trump. that's an interesting position for him to take, given that only last year john cornyn, same guy, said donald trump cannot win in 2024. what this is full consolidation of the republican party behind donald trump. it raises a question of what room there is for nikki haley to make progress among

republicans. given the result tonight, given her performance among republicans voters in new hampshire and overall margin in new hampshire, what is her deer trail out of this particular wilderness? let's head over to steve kornacki at the big board. >> take a look here, the latest results. i think this does, let's get new hampshire up here, let's go to the question here -- as soon as i can get it up the screen. okay, the question here of what haley is going to come out of new hampshire with tonight, which case to the final margin, which gets to where she's getting her vote from, where donald trump is getting his votes from. we've been saying she wants to keep this in single digits. what sort of happened, and i can put this in some perspective, obviously we showed you the exit poll early in the night, which from haley's standpoint has some encouraging news from he, r just in terms the composition of the electorate, it looked like and is a very high number of independents in this electorate and even democrats.

the current exit poll, with all of the waves put in, has democrats at 6% of this electorate. it's usually two or three, so it's double or triple what you usually expect. that was good news for haley. in the initial reports we saw, from cities like dover and concord and keane, she was doing quite well. doing basically what she needed to do to make this a race statewide. what's happened since, we talked about this particularly in small towns and rural new hampshire. she is just getting swamped. she needed to be, like she was in iowa, what we talked about this in iowa, a lot of rural counties, counties with medium income, low college attainment, she wasn't even getting out of single tinnitus in iowa. she's out of single digits here because it's a 2% race but she's getting swamped in a lot of places. that's held her back from making this competitive statewide. she's had some of the things go wrong. take a look at this, the biggest on the board right now. nashua is the second largest

city in the state. this is one haley didn't just need to win, she needed to win by a pretty comfortable margin. on paper, to be winning state wide, that was essential. it looks like, we've got a little bit left and nashua, it looks like she's not even going to went nashua tonight. trump's going to gain votes here. and the city of manchester, which we thought going in, haley to make it a game statewide needed to be tied here, maybe up a point or gonna point. she's now come to lose by 16 points in manchester. when you look at what's left, there are some areas where haley is going to make rent, which are not college in and this map. dartmouth, hanover, durham, university of new hampshire, no numbers there. exeter. those are four place here where haley's going to get a lot of votes. we can expect a lot out of hollis, amherst next door. these are votes for haley still to come. here is the problem, though, for her on top of all of that. some of the places here,

atkinson, salem. salem is the sixth largest town in new hampshire. it's got more than 30,000 people. it was one of donald trump's best towns in 2016. remember i said the border, the suburbs, the communities -- slams the perfect example. we don't have numbers but based on everything we're seeing, it should be a blowout trump win where he gains big plurality. that's going to be true as well. we expect the same thing to happen in pelham, potentially in windham when that comes in. derry, we've had reporters there at no. derry is another big, big community. i think based on what we're seeing, we can expect trump to get a lot of numbers out of that. what it's up to, we have got half the vote in right now. 48%. trump is leading by 11.2%. i think that's a very, very real possibility -- it's very plausible that donald trump could end up winning the state by double digits.

when nikki haley took the stage earlier, there was some and discussion of far less vote in. and look at the exit poll. this might be a five or six point race and she could make some noise based on that. but if this ends up ten, 11, 12 points for donald trump and he's winning essentially three quarters of the republican vote, she's only getting 25%, as we showed you, the republican vote, what is she walking out of this state with not to comment or competitive in any other state? because this mix with saying tonight, we have pope so much about, there would be some states that can templars to this. the only one i can think of, it's actually a state, the only place i can think of based on this demographic mix i can see haley absolutely winning and is the district of columbia. they have got 19 delegates. donald trump got 13% in 2016 kasich and rubio combined for over 60% of the vote. i don't think he's going to win

the district of columbia if she's still an active candidate there. it's very hard to find other places where she could post a win. if this wasn't enough and it ends up being double digits -- the other problem, this is not like the democratic primaries. this is not like that democratic primaries where everybody, as long as you get 15%, is getting a delicate out of every single congressional district on the map. that rules in most of the big states are, you win a congressional district, you get every delegate. 50%, you could ever at our delegate. functionally, in a two-person race, all trump has to do is beat haley in any given district of any given state. give him two points, he could take all the delegates. given that halle is only a 25% of republicans, you are not going to say this mix in the world. you were umatilla? maybe next door in vermont. that could be another target for her. vermont, with a negligible number of delegates. i'm talking about texas,

california, arkansas, oklahoma, michigan. these are states where trump's going to go in there and win a congressional district but a single vote, he'll get all the delegates out of. it it is designed, on the republican side, unlike the democratic side not to be a six month slog. it designed to be wrapped up quickly. and taking this mix, trump with this kind of mix would be poised for a massive, massive super tuesday. even before super tuesday, he'd be poised for a very, very big win in south carolina if haley's only getting 25% of republicans. >> these numbers go a long way in describing -- i think chris liebowitz described him as nikki haley's fleece clad parrot, chris sununu, says i'm going to vote for donald trump if he's the eventual nominee, even if he's convicted of a felony. there is this understanding in

the republican party, will virtually to. -- there's been a pretty significant development, which is the house republicans who won in districts that biden won in 2020 have begun endorsing trump. if a lot of -- >> so vulnerable republicans? >> vulnerable republicans, not from deep red district. we're talking nicola lotte on long island, nick vardy in -- biden won that district by 20 points. endorsing trump, the sort of pressure points are not the same for them as they are for the rest of the republican conference. and you are seeing this capitulation that -- you look at the map that steve just showed us, it is a bulldozer plowing through the next several primary races. and you are seeing that reality doan for republicans. >> although nikki haley as mayor of washington, i would like to see that contest. >> yes. >> and why not, everyone needs a second act. look, i guess i see it like this. good night for trump. not a great night for trump,

precisely for the reasons we've discussed. when you're standing on that much ground and you are only doing this number that you have some weaknesses, even if yes, you are clearly being declared front-runner by your party. so you think back to years ago. eight years ago feels like a long time to me in the news business. and i remember where i was, because i was in new hampshire inside the hall watching trump come onstage and win. and he won by about 55,000 votes and 20 plus points. and that was a great night for him. and he did, it as you pointed out in the league, rachel, without any of the institutional support and having -- >> zero endorsements. >> so endorsements, basically taking over coming off a disappointing start in iowa based on what he had hoped for. right now, again, we have to look at the projection, but with half the vote in, he is up 16,000 votes. when you say it like that, it does not sound like all that big of a gap. now all the projections are true. and the coalition doesn't necessarily materialize in every other state. but if you are the former

president and you are the most famous, and fox news is back selling you into doing those town halls and you never have to square off in a debate or an adversarial interview and you have all the endorsements and everyone is gearing up for you and over at davos all the elite buddies said it is gonna be your year and you are going to win because you're not an outsider. if you have a, or you certainly are not anymore, even by the narrow standards of a republican. standard and what do you have in this hour? 16,000 more votes. so he might be very well on the path and there will be people who started this. but i don't call it a great night for him. it looks like a good night. and standing on a whole lot, facing off against one person, who's only had two campaign days, that's where he is. 16,000 up. >> one of that relevant frames to use, looking at what trump achieved thought and shape is what joe biden achieved. someone else came in second tonight. dean phillips, running against joe biden, is coming in second with 20% of the vote amongthe

democratic, unofficial democratic primaries they had there. the model he had going into new hampshire was gene mccarthy in 1968 who won 42% of the vote against the sitting president lyndon johnson over the head a write-in campaign. johnson doesn't bother to have his name on the appellate, just like button. both of them or running unofficial write-in campaigns. dean phillips got completely crushed. didn't come close to the threshold. if jean mccarthy had got the 20% in 1968, that would've been the end. we wouldn't have talked about again. bobby kennedy probably would've rethought his plan to get into the race after seeing how strong lbj was. so joe biden demonstrates this enormous strength in new hampshire tonight. and then, you have trump showing much greater weakness against a credible challenger. and it depends on how you want to look at trump. he wants to be called president in court and everywhere. so let's call on president just for this moment.

>> [laughter] >> when a president is on the ballot in the new hampshire primary, you're supposed to win everything. you're not supposed to face a serious challenge. and when you do, you lose. there is no president who faced serious challenges in the new hampshire primary who then won in november. so this is a very bad night for donald trump, looking at the pattern of president in new hampshire primary situations who faced very serious challenges. >> so what we're seeing here is he's very likely to win the nomination. and the way that he's winning shows him to be a very weak general election candidate. >> he's likely to win the nomination the way george h. w. bush was still likely to win the nomination after pat buchanan went to new hampshire and almost knocked him out. and then a george h. w. bush did win the nomination. >> he won the nomination, and then he got -- >> -- and it was over. >> to put it in a sentence,

there's a difference between being feared within your party and appealing popular within the nation. >> yeah, absolutely. if new hampshire is the avatar for what independent voters want and would choose given the option, given the fact that anyone can play on the independent side. nikki haley meet donald trump among independents by something like 40 percentage points. that is not a good sign for a sitting former president of the united states, who again, wants to be seen as president. yes, he will beat her in south carolina. let's not forget that one of the things that joe biden did was to remake the calendar such that he was not on the ballot in new hampshire. still mopped up dean phillips new hampshire, when he wasn't even on the ballot, as a write in candidate. yes, donald trump will likely win south carolina, nikki haley's home state. joe biden might win it by more. because that state's bills for joe biden, just like on the republican side it's built for donald trump. so tonight, the winner, if you

want to look at all the metrics for a general election, the winner tonight is joe biden. >> mm-hmm. >> who won in new hampshire decisively as a write-in, who's gonna win decisively in south carolina. and the story that donald trump thinks he's going to get out of south carolina, joe biden will get one of equal value to him. and in the end, he's got a better story to tell in november, because he's not facing 91 criminal counts. >> yeah. let me ask, and steve kornacki, i'd love to ask your advice on this. this isn't about data from tonight, but about recent history in campaigns. one of the electability argument that's being made on the republican side is that it's important for the republicans to unify now, for them to end their primary now, that deciding on a candidate now gives them a better shot at the general election, gives them a better, longer runway in terms of what they want to line up against joe biden. when i think about that, steve, i think about john kerry

wrapping it up quickly in 2004 and then losing to george w. bush. i think about hillary clinton and barack obama battling right down to the very last second in 2008, making for a very short general election campaign in 2008, but one that the democrats ultimately won. is there any way that you think about it in terms of the lived history that we've got of the primaries versus the generals as to whether or not there is a case to be made that it might help the republicans -- the nominee sooner rather than later? >> i think the way i look at it, and i love historical, you know, precedents and i love talking about, bringing them in. but i think the reality is there is no modern precedent for what we're seeing. we can talk about whether trump should be considered an incumbent president or not. he sure didn't look like an incumbent president at the start of this campaign in terms of how he's pulling. the support crew over the course of last spring and last summer. in modern history, how many former presidents have turned around for years after losing

the office and try to reclaim it? in modern history, the answer is zero. what's the closest parallel we have? gerald ford explored running for president in 1979 after losing it in 1976. he was an unelected president. he was pulling second place in the summer of fall 1979 to ronald reagan. ford saw the polls and did not run. that's your closest parallel, that's not much of it parallels. i think we know very different place. i think one of the things we've seen preconciliar here is i think a lot of people have already been looking at this race as inevitable, a trump versus joe biden race. that is why opinion on both of them is so strong, and in my view, is so set in place. there are going to be, people there are up for grabs voters, there are swing voters, there are voters who is a question about, are they -- their potential voters, are they actually going to be motivated to turn out? i think that's gonna be one of the biggest questions as we head into the fall of 2024. but i think the bottom line is people know both of these candidates extremely well, have

extremely strong opinions of them. they do not have a good opinion at all of donald trump. but you have to keep in mind, they do not have a good opinion at all of joe biden. his average approval rating now is 39%. the last time our network pulled a trump versus biden matchup, trump was winning nationally by two points. we have pulled since the start of 2019 a trump versus joe biden matchup. nbc has 16 times. the first 14 times, that's all of 2019, all of 2020, and the first nine months of 2023. the first 14 times joe biden lead donald trump. in the 19 and 20, in the 20 22nd, the -- was never short of six points. it was as high as 12. points that was the range. then this fall for the first-time, we have a tie. trump versus biden, in our final poll of the, year we had trump ahead of biden, something we had never seen before. the reality is when you look at the polling out there, whether it's our polling, or any of the other quality pulls that are out there, looking at a trump biden rematch, you're seeing something that you didn't see in 2019, in 2020, for that

matter, that you didn't see in 2016. and that is at least in the polls, a strength for trump relative to biden that he never showed in 19 and 20. we -- i defy you to find more than a single poll in 2019 and 2020, a single quality poll that put trump ahead nationally. they just didn't exist. every poll was just a question of how much was he behind. now we're looking at polls that actually have trump tied, actually of trump ahead in the popular vote. and we talk about, do republicans have a bit of an advantage in the electoral college, where if they're even competitive for the popular vote, that's going to translate into a big boost in the electoral college. and we've seen statewide polls, some of these swing state polls, some of these states that biden won in 20 that trump had won in 2016 that they were critical to his election as present in the first place. we see trump racking up some very big numbers, some very impressive numbers. they're, again, relative to how he has pulled before. so to me, it raises the question -- we're looking at a different atmosphere, i think, then we saw in 2020, then we saw in

2016. anything we've ever seen in a modern presidential race before. and it's one that i think is sort of dominated by questions. when you see a pull right now that has donald trump ahead of joe biden or competed with joe nationally, the questions that are raised are where is the new strength coming from? one of the places that is picking up on it in the polls is younger voters. is that real? our younger voters actually backing away a bit from biden? are they actually going to go out there and vote for trump? or are they actually going to stay on the sidelines in some meaningful numbers that they didn't in 2020 and did it in 2016? that's a big factor. as part of what we're seeing in these polls right now. is that actually going to try? and we didn't see it in 20. we're seeing it now. is that going to translate when we get to election day 2024? for that matter, we talked all in 2016 and all in 2020 how the polls in both years completely missed a crucial section of trump's supporters, particularly in the upper midwest in midwest states. those are white voters, rural, not a college degree, low trust in media, unable to reach them

in polls even of the whole methodology was changed between 2016 and 2020. was that a factor again? is that still in play? is there still something about trump being on the ballot? because he wasn't on the ballot in name in 2022. he was in 20 and he wasn't 16. he brought them out in 16, he brought them out in 20. in 18 and 22, republicans had bad years in the midterms. but trump himself wasn't on the ballot. is trump's presence on the ballot bring them out again in 2024? these are the questions i think that we have. but a lot of them just stem from the fact that so much is known about these two candidates, opinion is so deep, so entrenched, we are left with questions about turnout, really well with questions of what exactly the electorate is going to look like. but look, if it ends up being the longest general election in history and haley is out of the race by march 3rd, it will be the longest general election in history. i think it's one that's shaping up to be extremely close right

now. because while there is, as i said, i lot of negative opinion about trump, there is about biden, too. and that's a difference between 20 and 20. for biden is an incumbent president. an incumbent president with an approval rating under 40%. if that process to the election, another if, will that persist to election day? will economic news get better? will biden numbers improve? it's completely possible. but if it doesn't and your incumbent president walking into election day with an approval rating anything like joe biden as right now, does trump start to look a little different to the crucial, small but crucial, sect of voters that could decide the election? >> and, and, and on top of all that, does politics matter, meeting does politicking matter? enforcement of the longest general election campaign in history, how good are these two old guys at competing against each other? yes, we've seen it before but we saw it before when they were a little bit younger. and we saw before there was a lot of this water under the bridge. and we saw at a time there was a global pandemic, which prohibited a lot of the normal

forms of campaigning. so what's going to happen once these two are in a general election matchup has a lot to do with the art of politicking. and that is as much of the black boxes any of this. >> to build on, that it's been a modern -- so kennedy and nixon in 1960, the first televised presidential debates. they didn't have that in 64, 60, 72. since 1976, it's been a staple of our fall every four years, the presidential debates. and sometimes, the vice presidential debate, too. are we going to have those? we're getting strong indications for the first time we may not have debates between these two candidates. now i will throw one more in there, it's been a while since we've had third party candidates registering very significant support. and i don't know what's going to happen with rfk junior. i don't know what's gonna happen with no labels. but that's another very big question. because there is a poll from the washington post at the end of last year, it matched trump and biden, it found the close result. they re-pulled the same voters

and it put several, it put rfk junior, i think it put joe manchin to test the name, i think it put the libertarian candidate, maybe one other. it put it all in front of voters. and the third party choices combined were getting something like 15% of the vote. when you see the negatives that biden and trump have, when you see the share of the voting population that says i don't want either one of them, it takes me back, as you mentioned, 1992. you know george w. bush, the president, approval rating in the 30s and the economy was not in a good place. bill clinton emerge from the democratic primaries with poisonously, seemingly poisonously high personal unfavorable number. a created the atmosphere in which was born the ross perot phenomena. and ross perot qualified for all the ballots, you go, back find the cover of newsweek from june 1992, it says president perot on. it he was leading as a third party candidates the national polls in june of 1992. he dropped out over the summer, cut back in the fall, finished

with 20% of the vote. no electoral votes, but 20% of the vote. no one has match that number or come close to it since. could that be something that happens this year? and with that disproportionately affect one candidate or the other? those are the questions i think we have to turn to now. >> oh, god, steve, we were feeling a little agitation anyway. but if there are that many black boxes in the depth of the questions we have to consider right away, we are going to take a break. more of our special coverage tonight from new hampshire primary and beyond. we are gonna hear from our friends claire mccaskill, jen palmieri when we come back. we've got lots to get to, stay with us. >> with donald trump, republicans have lost almost every competitive election. we lost the senate, we lost the house, we lost the white house, we lost in 2018, we lost in 2020, and we lost in 2022.

the worst kept secret in politics is how badly the democrats want to run against donald trump. donald trump

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coverage of the new hampshire primary. the nbc news decision desk, excuse me, i'm clutching, the nbc news decision desk was able to project a very early, when it's really a pool closing time win for president biden in the democratic presidential primary. and then it was about 11.5 minutes later that the decision desk was able to project a new hampshire republican primary win for donald trump. but we have just obtained exclusively a statement from president joe biden on tonight's results in new hampshire. this is the result he's given exclusively to us. you will not have this anywhere else. the president statement is this. it is now clear that donald trump will be the republican nominee. and my message to the country is the stakes could not be

higher. our democracy, our personal freedoms, from the right to choose to the right to vote, our economy, which is seeing the strongest recovery in the world since covid, all are at stake. the president statement continues, i want to thank all those who wrote my name in this evening in new hampshire. it was a historic demonstration of commitment to our democratic process. and i want to say to all those independents and republicans who share our commitment to core values of our nation, our democracy, our personal freedoms, and the economy that gives everyone a fair shot to join us as americans. let's remember we are the united states of america and there is nothing, nothing we cannot do if we do it together. again, that statement exclusive from president joe biden to us here at nbc this evening. lawrence? >> let's take a look at what joe biden was doing today. today, the day after the 51st anniversary of the roe v. wade supreme court decision, president joe biden and vice president kamala harris campaigned in manassas,

virginia. >> one does not have to abandon their faith, or deeply held beliefs, to agree the government should not be telling her what she should do with her body. >> did anyone think, did anyone think this is where america was going in 2024? >> [crowd chanting] no! >> democracy is on the ballot. freedom is on the ballot, like the freedom to choose, the freedom to vote, the freedom to love who you want, the freedom to go to work, go to school, go to your house of worship without fear of being gunned down by a weapon of war. >> joining our discussion now, former democratic senator for missouri claire mccaskill. also with us, jennifer palmieri, former obama white house communications director and former senior vice artillery clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. they co-host the msnbc podcast

how to win 2024, the perfect people to ask how to win 2024. can we pause, senator mccaskill, just for a second on all those pundits who told us how disaster it was for joe biden and the democratic party to bypass new hampshire this year and start with south carolina, a state that the party feels is more representative of democratic voters? and what a disaster this was going to be for joe biden in new hampshire and how he could actually end up losing in new hampshire. it's worth a note to those pundits tonight about what actually happened there. >> yeah, i mean, and keep in mind, this was a little harder. they had a long list of names and none of the names were joe biden. so for him to win a write in effort like this, where the biden campaign was not on the ground, they were not organizing, is quite a statement.

and at the statement, i believe the new hampshire delegates will be seated. i think joe biden is smart enough to know that it's still is a swing state and he needs to recognize those delegates eventually. but he felt it was important to take a stand about the first primary being in a more diverse state for democratic party that prides itself on wanting to make sure that everybody is included in the american dream, everybody, no matter who you are. so i -- you know, listen. and i think you guys have got over this. but he says he's the incumbent. you know, he calls himself the incumbent. he says he won. >> [laughter] >> whenever has an incumbent president only gotten 50% of his party's vote in the first two primaries? this is weakness, this is not strength. >> jen palmieri, with all your experience at the highest level of presidential campaigns, what does the biden harris campaign really want tonight?

did they want nikki haley to hang in there and keep hammering at donald trump and keep prying independent voters and possible republican voters away from donald trump? or do they want a clear shot at donald trump right now, the longer they get to go one-on-one with donald trump, the better? >> they won both thanks, lawrence. >> okay. >> i think that's what they are telling us tonight. and was very interesting that they put out that statement that said donald trump is going to be the nominee. i think the campaign has been operating in the white house has been operating since the election started on january 5th. that was the valley forge speech, so they are operating at general election speed. you see that even just there getting pretty troll like in what they're saying about donald trump on the campaign's x account. you see them -- and i think they feel like they're getting some traction, they're getting some traction in the economic, good economic news, starting to take hold,

and they're getting some traction on really training their fire on trump. and i think they are telling us don't take your eye off the ball. he is going to be the nominee. but it's also true that has -- just in the last two weeks, we've learned a lot of valuable information from both the iowa caucus and primary ld useful to the biden election. for, example 30% of iraq caucusgoers said they would not vote for trump if he was convicted. that number was over 40% in the republican primary in new hampshire. if she is taking swings at him as well, that is -- i don't know if it's really want to hurt him with republicans. he's going to be the republican nominee. but it is helpful to hear our republican say bad things about trump. i think that can help in the general election. and so, it -- you know, this is not a case where donald trump is in any sort of danger. he's not taking on a lot of water. in terms of securing the nomination.

but i think with a campaign -- so the campaign is happy for it to go on, continue to learn more from these competitive races. you learn a lot, it's really helpful. but signaling to everyone keep focused on trump, don't get distracted by haley. >> senator mccaskill, we heard new hampshire voter tonight who is voting for nikki haley, republican voter, say if it's donald trump versus joe biden in november, maybe i just won't vote. now mathematically, if that kind of republican voter is placed in the right spots in the electoral college in enough numbers, that could be enough for joe biden in those states if those otherwise republican voters just don't vote. >> as you well know, lawrence, there's two parts to this. the first is persuasion. the second is enthusiasm. and if in fact he loses the enthusiasm of a huge chunk of this party, which is clear he's

going to, it doesn't matter as much if they vote for biden as long as they don't vote. and i think that is going to be a reality. and listen, i think the other opportunity nikki has, you guys went through all the congressmen and women who have endorsed, her all the governors and all the -- you know, the politicians are against nikki haley now. donald trump is the party of the elite. he's the party of washington, d.c.. everyone in washington, d.c., is for donald trump. that is really something she can use effectively against a lot of people in the republican party who donald trump has convinced that anything in washington is the enemy. >> jen, as the haley campaign goes on, whatever she's going in for her hardest attacks on donald trump, most of them, she tries to include joe biden in them. but some of them she doesn't. some of them are just straight at donald trump. does the biden campaign concerned about how much nikki haley mixes biden into that

attack? >> i have noticed in this just in this past couple of days that she's dropped talking about biden as much, and she's just aiming her fire directly at trump, and trump misspeaking and being confused and being older and the chaos, the negativity. and she's not connecting that to biden. and i mean, just as like a political person, i can tell you, trying to convince people that joe biden and donald trump are the same person appeals to no voter. so i think it's probably -- it's a bad priority -- it's sort of a bad strategy for her to begin with. i don't think, i mean, if i were the biden campaign, this is not something i would worry about. i would not worry about her making the same argument about trump and biden. because again, voters are either for one of them are not. they are not going to conflate the two. but it is interesting to me that she has started to focus more singularly on trump. we will see how long that lasts. she bought herself a ticket to south carolina tonight.

she -- execution, she did everything great. she came out early while her lead, while trump's lead was not that big. she had a good speech. she made a case why she should stay in. she's gaining ground. she did better this week than last week. why would she drop out? south carolina is one state away. that's her home state. we don't think she's going to win it, but this is a reason for her to stay in. she picked a fight with trump over debates. so she did the things just sort of tactically that you should do to stay in. and we'll see where she goes from here. but she's not going to be the nominee. but she may -- she bought herself -- she handled it well and bought her -- ability to continue to fight for two more states. >> there's nothing like hearing from campaign professionals. jen palmieri, claire mccaskill, co-host of the msnbc podcast how to win in 2023. >> again, the news that we lead the segment with, i don't want to go unnoticed, which is president biden has given us an

exclusive statement in response to the new hampshire primary results night. he said it is now clear that donald trump will be the republican nominee. my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher. our democracy, our personal freedoms, for the right to choose to the right to vote, our economy, which has seen the strongest recovery in the world since covid, all are at stake. he then says i want to thank all those who wrote my name in this evening in new hampshire. it was a historic demonstration of commitment to our democratic process. our democracy being at stake and the commitment to our democratic process represented by people writing in the presidents name in a contest in which he was not formally competing, it is awkward. and some of that awkwardness is about to get way worse in the what is shaping up to be a general election contest between president biden and former president trump. we've got that story ahead for you next, stay with us. u next, stay with us

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so entourage can campaign schedule this year, you guys, they were supposed to be two debates after iowa and before the new hampshire primary. remember that? we all blocked it out on our cameras. we all plans to be. here this was one of the things that was going to happen. it was awkward, there were only a few days apart. but there were only eight days between iowa and new hampshire, but they were going to squeeze them. in two changes for candidates to make final appeal to voters in new hampshire before polls opened. they happen? no, those debate did not happen because donald trump is refusing to debate this year.

nikki haley six it would be pointless to hold another debate without trump when, in her, words ron desantis was closer to zero than he was to her. so what would she bother talking to him? sort of a fair point. but it doesn't mean there or no new hampshire debate at all. my in-laws live in new hampshire, i have lots of family and lots of acquaintances in new hampshire. i spent a lot of time in new hampshire. i did not expect to hear this, but i did anecdotally her a lot of people say they were mad there was no new hampshire debate. the republican primary debate, none of them included trump, but never in wisconsin and florida and california. none of them in new hampshire. because there are supposedly going to be these to the naked preemptive, it's both of them -- and people were mad about. that but morally, that's become a kind of thing that. here more so than at any time since that civil war, this is the election in which we're gonna to keep a democracy. but there is not very much

democracy in this contest as. for up with an incumbent president, which is true anytime you have an incumbent president, first not real primer on democrat the side. it might be the shortest primer ever on the republican side, which is what we have been talking to steve kornacki about all night. supporters of the front runner or emphatically demanding all people should clear out the field, so we can stop voting. the voting is so offensive. we have not repeat for that republican nominee, no rival for that democrat nominee. possibly no debate for that general election at all. neither trump or biden has debated so far. and what would? they were in a fight to save democracy, but for trying to fight for it without using democracy to fund-raise. which is, i don't know. it feels historically unprecedented but if there's one thing we're for, and nothing is. joining us now is nbc news presidential historian michael

beschloss. we're so happy to have you tonight. thanks for joining us. >> me, too, thank you. >> that like off democracy in this democratic process, it does feel a little bit circumstantial. there are different reasons for it on that democratic side then on the republican side. however that maybe, their combined to give us a process in which everyone's talking about the fight for democracy, and it does feel like not very democratic process this time. >> that's right. you referenced the fact there was a suggestion in 1940, 1944, franklin roosevelt, because there was a war, on franklin roosevelt should suspend elections because the country could benefit from, it and he said that based way of deciding on the president and the congress is mark democracy, not less. the other thing, rachel, to make people feel better about, this if donald trump tied up that republican nomination for president tonight for 2024, and he probably did, let's ask the question, to republicans get their strongest candidate to run joe biden against? i don't think. so the polls suggest nikki haley would be a much stronger

candidate then donald trump. so want what you look at the process is to say, does it include enough states and voters coming in on this? it's a real judgment. the answer in this case would be. no this is after iowa and new hampshire, they had decided who is going to look up one of -- so want what you look at the process is to say, does it include enough states and voters coming in on this? it's a real judgment. the answer in this case would be. no this is after iowa and new hampshire, they had decided who is going to lock up one of the nominations of the two major parties, if it is locked up tonight or in the next few weeks. the other thing, you want to process that's going to get you the candidate who has at least

a great chance to win and the republicans have not on this. you've got someone who's head the cornucopia of forthcoming trials and indictments. someone who's promised just a shift, it, rachel to suspend the constitution and institute essentially a presidential dictatorship if he's elected. that's not going to be necessarily a great but got her in a fall presidential election. the other thing, is this is not someone who's exactly the most self disciplined candidate the republicans could have for the presidency. look at the way he's been talking in the last. week he's not in control of what he says. he confuses nancy pelosi with nikki haley. he makes other mistakes that seem to be getting more, rather than. less if it were a republican, which i'm not, i would say this is in the too quickly and has settled us with a candidate may turn out to be and electable.

>> michael, if we're also atrophy the muscle that is debating, presidential debating, if we lose presidential debates and we lose them on the democratic side because you've got an incumbent president -- we lost it on the republican side because it's a ceta incumbent who decided to take that privilege for himself and refused to debate. both of those nominees or likely nominees don't seem to want to debate for the general. if we lose presidential debate in the cycle, what are we losing as a country? >> we are losing a lot. because what we have demanded as a country in 1960 and saints beginning in 1976 when that tradition was resumed, at least in the fall, and also in most of those years during primary campaigns, we've demanded potential candidates, we want to see what you're like when you're out of your comfort zone. and out of your comfort zone doesn't main supplanting to a softball and if you on fox news. it means going into a debate when someone who's running

against you and once the same job takes a few cracks if you and tries to knock you off your feet. let's see how it will grave to maintain yourself. that's a crucial requirement for whoever's gonna be an ex president at a time that's going to be very difficult in this country and very difficult around the world. >> michael, it's alex wagner. we talk about whether or not there is a historical precedent for any of. this it seems like what trump is trying to do is fairly singular in terms of modern american politics. correct me if i'm wrong. but the last guy to try to do this and succeed at this is grover cliffland. and if that's right, is there anything analogous in terms of where the country or parties are at thin and we are there at now? >> maybe 1912, more as you know, theodore ridgeville hood been president ran for president again, first lost the republican nomination and then ran as a progressive in the fall and got a huge number of votes, although he did not when he was a spoiler and allowed woodrow wilson to be elected with a pretty slim sheer of the

vote, in the low 40s. and you see where i'm going, which is if we are in a situation where there are three parties or a threat movements like what i consider the egregious no labels for robert kennedy junior or some of these other if you chip away at a direct confrontation between joe biden and donald trump, we could wind up with results that really don't reflect the thinking of the american people because it could be that someone could be elected with a much narrower sliver of the vote, just as wilson was in 1912. i have not too much doubt that you have had to write conflict between joe biden and donald trump, donald trump has a harder time winning. on the other hand, if you have a spoiler candidates or movements who chip off various paces of what might otherwise it would be joe biden's vote, you could have a situation like 2000, we are al gore was

probably defeated by third movements, by people like ralph nader, or other cases in history like 2016 where jill stein and others chipped off what might have been hillary clinton's ability to win the electoral college. >> nbc news presidential historian michael beschloss. fantastic to have you here. always, but particular tonight. thanks so much for being with us. >> thank you, always love being together,. >> it has been a remarkable night thus far. we've got a projection at poll closing from the nbc news decision desk of president biden, who's not on the pellets, winning the democratic presidential primary in new hampshire. 11 minutes later we've got a projection of donald trump winning that republican presidential primary in new hampshire. nikki haley saying she will not get out, that political class saying all the things that political clans usually says. but there's a lot still to absorb here. we have got a lot more to come.

our special coverage of new hampshire that primary continues right after this. pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free

not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives of banks, big pharma, even top administration officials. katie porter. never taken corporate pac money - never will. leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks” that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter.