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i'm katie porter and i approve this message. good evening from manchester, new hampshire, where tonight it looks like nikki haley might be expectations, at least from the polls, but she did not beat donald trump. 11 minutes after polls close tonight, nbc news projected trump would win new hampshire the primary and make it two and a row after his resounding victory in iowa just last week. here is what members looked like at this hour. it was a result that gave the biden campaign and, opening with the president saying tonight regardless of what nikki haley does from here, the general election race has begun. and yet, nikki haley is promising to stay in the race as of tonight. >> now you have all heard the

chatter among the political class. they're falling all over themselves saying this race is over. [applause] well, i have news for all of them. new hampshire it is for in the nation. it is not last in the nation. [applause] >> she's right, it's not the last inclination. and in that pretty defiant speech, she made pretty clear she has ever intention to carry on and she has every right to carry on. for what it's worth, as she was told, can i hurt her to -- not necessarily state until south carolina, a month from now, but a promise to basically stay in until tomorrow or a little bit longer. she likely wants to give herself some space to go home to her advice was, to think about a real process for, to see if there's a real puffer. and she has to be honest about whether there is one or not. because the states coming up, including her home state of south carolina, and next on teladoc, at heavily favors

donald trump. they're more like the iowa electorate than the new hampshire electorate we saw tonight. and the prime rate that comes after that is trump friendly by design. literally designed by his supporters to benefit him. so haley might stick around for a little bit. we'll see. but if president biden it is, right trump is very likely to lead his party into another general election. tonight has made it all the more clear. tonight it's also important for us to understand what his brand of politics works for so many of his voters. what they seem to be by the vision of america that he's selling. take a look at this nbc news exit poll out new hampshire of tonight. a candidate who fights for people like me. that was the most important quality in deciding who to vote for tonight.

and among those who valued that quality to most, nearly 90% voted for trump. it speaks to the perception of trump's voters that they're under siege. that trump's grievances are somehow their own. that's what he tells them, that he'll be their champion. and they believe he, donald trump, will fight for them. it's just like how evangelicals in iowa last week overwhelmingly believed the thrice to voiced woman as a candidate is the best choice for them -- and how that live free or die state pick the authoritarian and waiting to be their nominee. it may not make sense on paper, been your mind, but what trump is pitching resonate with republican voters. tonight results are a stark reminder of that. and it looks like what might be that longest general election in history, it's important for us to understand how and why trump lock this absolutely.

i've got an oh for a panel of guests standing by to talk about all of this. but let's great to steve kornacki who's still at the big board. tell us how this happened tonight. >> a couple of ingredients. here we have got three quarters of the vote and. now you see trump with a lead here of almost 11 points, 10. 7 over nikki haley. i think realistically there are some areas here, the city of lebanon, durham, amherst down here. there are going to give haley a little bit more. but they're going to be off. sit back and stand, here we expect big numbers. and realistically expect us to be a diligent trump victory. early in the night with the first exit polls and even some of the first cities and towns to report, i think we got a saint maybe this was going to be narrow, five points less. i think it's ultimately going to end up a double to trump victory. a couple things to keep in on here. number, one we've talked about police strength being with economically upscale voters, places with high concentrations of college degrees, with independent voters certainly.

and the places on the map that fourth approval, a good example, go to the third largest city and the state, concord. haley winds it. good news for her. but if she really wanted to have a chance to not, she should have been at close to 60% here. she finishes just over 50%. that's a democratic here or she double, but not nearly well enough. a surprise, she felt short in nashua, the second largest city in the state. again, demographically, they should be right in her wheelhouse. she should have won her by close to ten points if she was going to have a shot statewide. she actually listens outright to donald trump. she did an apple form in some areas that were demographically suited for her. but i think and performed and. then what happens for, her uk to the small towns, smaller towns were that median income as a bit lower, the college degree concentration is lower.

she really struggled and those places like in iowa and continues over to new hampshire. here is nick which, right on the massachusetts border -- this is a working class town. it's a small town. look at that. but a 31 margin, trump is beating her. she can't sustain those losses and you say things to that degree throughout the state. she wasn't strong enough in her strongest areas and she got blown out in places like that. here is the bottom line. take a look at the exit poll. when we ask folks -- this as it. this electorate was basically half republican and have non-republican. among those who are republicans in this primary, trump won by basically 50 points. 74 trump, 25 haley. among independent voters, they made up for 3% of the electorate, hailey 60, trump 38. and among democrats, this is an unusual member of --

the strength for her was just overwhelmingly to the extent it was a government for her, it was almost strictly on the backs of non republicans. just based on some of that rolls in the hands, the political traditions and new hampshire, the democratic makeup of new hampshire, that's with the perfect mix for nikki haley, for a candidate with the strength she's shown. and she still is going to lose, it wouldn't, they're probably by governors. so if you take the cut apartment she had with republicans, losing them by 50 points, self identified republicans, and start going through what's next in this race. nevada is complicated -- that next contest is halle south carolina's, a month from now, if the mix is like what we showed you with republicans, independents, democrats in south carolina, she's going to

get blown out. a good night for her would be a 20 point loss in south carolina. she's not shown an ability to win over core numbers, core republicans and meaningful numbers. she's not shown an ability to really tap into that blue color, working class base that donald trump has really brought into, has accelerated their movement into the republican party. she's completely fell to tap into. that if she can get it done in new hampshire, and can't get it and even single digits in new hampshire, it's a tough question for her. go to your home state of south carolina, she's gotten some good price, gotten some positive attention. but she could be facing a massive loss in her home state. it doesn't look anything like new hampshire. >> the demographics just came to get harder and harder after. here steve kornacki, i know you've been working your tail off at that big board. thanks so much for staying up late with us. we appreciate it. joining us now, msnbc news correspondent vaughn hillyard and reporter for the boston globe --

james pindle, and with us and co-host of the weekend, michael steele. former obama campaign manager, my former boss, david plouffe. and former senator from missouri claire mccaskill, co-host of the podcast how to win 2024. vaughn, all start with you. you'll spend more time at trump campaign rallies, watching trump, with any of us. i think it's important for us to understand his base of supporters. it's surprising i think to many people, important groups, they banned your mind. don't make sense on paper. tell us a lot more about who comes to his rallies, who are his most dedicated supporters -- >> there was a rally this summer and pick in, south carolina, a moral committee. it was probably something like 90 degrees. and there were tens of thousands of folks who came out to come and see donald trump. it was so striking that day. i was talking to my producer at the time, and i was, like these folks aren't going away. these folks have had the chance to see him time and time again. what would come down to is strength. in that number from the exit poll -- >> the strongman? >> the strongmen. he's fighting for people like me. when i ask folks why donald

trump, it's the work strength. he's strong. donald trump it's conditioning folks to want a leader that strong. this weekend, here in new hampshire, he said it's nice to have a strong men run your country -- and when we're talking about government, something that can be clunky, when donald trump says i can into these for, us i can stop the immigration crisis -- and a speech just as weekend, he said, when i was president i saw some homeless encampments in d. c. and ordered them gone. folks believe he has the strength to take care of this. and that is indicative of the result not only in iowa but here among registered republicans in the state of new hampshire. >> it's such an interesting thing. i appreciate you breaking it up. michael, i want to go to you. you are always a struggle. her and i think some of what we saw and the outcome tonight is maybe an underestimation of how trump might do even among groups like holly educator voters, higher income voters. some of the groups that nikki

haley was really supposed to dominate in. what do you think that's about? did we underestimate? did we get it wrong? >> i thought was always been a level of underestimation when it comes to the very thing that vote was talking about. the reality is, i cannot emphasize this enough. i've been saying this to folks, for i don't know, six years. there are a lot more people that support donald trump then we want to admit. this is a big red flag for democrats. when you look at the numbers from 16 to 20, that's not all republicans. when you look at a state like new hampshire, or iowa even, while he got 4 to 7, 48% of republicans that against him, he still got 51% given everything everyone knows about him. tonight, given everything we know about him, and the turnout that supposedly was going to come almost creating this kind of wave against donald trump, comprised the democrats and independents, guess what? he broke that wave before it hit the shore. it didn't amount to too much of

anything. and as steve aptly noted, donald trump is going to build a white with a double digit victory in new hampshire. that realty going forward and a warning sign for this general election which began tonight, which began tonight. nikki, i give it two weeks. go say face, but guess what? two weeks. because you are not going to stand on the ballot against trump in your home state and take a 20 point drubbing at a minimum. that is political suicide for a governor who wants to be president in 28. so i just think we need to be realistic about what's happening right now in new hampshire as a bellwether for what this campaign is going to look like. don't get it twisted, people. there are a lot more people out in this country like that strongman narrative and they ain't all republicans. >> that is very true. we cannot be ostriches, as i like to say. can't keep the head in the sand. claire, let me ask you. nikki haley was very defiant

tonight in her speech. it was well delivered. but she seemed to commit to staying in the race for sometime. i'm of the view, which adjusted a few minutes ago, it doesn't really mean she is committed to south carolina. it just means she is committed for now. how did you hear of that speech and what do you think of the competitions happening with a heavy team at this point in time? >> her speech made trump really mad. >> that's true, clearly. >> he lost. it on the stage, tonight. it was really awkward and ugly. it often is with him. two or three things here. first, the polling was not accurate. the average of all that polls going into new hampshire said trump was going to win by 20. he's not going to win by 20. he's going to win by ten, 11, maybe 12. but i'm guessing it will end up

somewhere around 11. plenty of republicans don't want donald trump. 25% of republicans refusing to vote for donald trump, a lot with a majority of independents can win all of that swing states that biden needs to win. and frankly, you know, all the politicians being for trump, that's in haley's five or two. that's kind of what they want to. here trump doesn't seem well to me. he looks wearing. he's angry. he's confused. i think that is going to play out. and the more he's angry, the more he's going to play out and the biden campaign to of that. and joe biden did well in a state that's really cranky with him. keep in mind democrats in new hampshire or cranky he was not participating in the primary.

they were mad at him. so the fact his name is on the ballot -- not on the ballot and he's going to end up with north of 65% of the vote, there are six of, and he may end up with 70% in a state that was kind of cranky and they had to work harder to write in his name. it's a good man for joe. bottom i think there's a lot of growth potential and frankly a lot of data, as my friend david plouffe has said tonight, outlook of data used to target their message is going for. >> no doubt about that. and they're definitely having to turn the page on this not. it turned at whether an attorney could have. james, you've been covering a

lot of these for many years, even though your young of course. what if anything surprised you about the i component and thought that we've seen so far? >> look this is also a flood rice. we talked about, this is the republican party. it changed. the first four primary states, or caucus states, this was a place where he can be taken. this is a place where donald trump was always the most vulnerable. consistently at 50% or higher in iowa -- >> and after chris christie dropped at, it was a real moment where it felt like maybe it could have been. >> but even heading into last weekend, before iowa, he's still at 45%, 44%. his win in iowa, he got a bump. the scientist got out, he caught up on through. so he's reflected. he was at 45, now he's in that list of these. the race it fundamentally change. i spent two hours going around to polling places because i love this and i love talking to voters. >> that's why you're covering it, it's good.

you are in the right job. >> that's right. there were three buckets. people who would walk in and say, my mind is made up, i am trump. the second one -- by the way, these are in order in terms of this. the second, as i'm at never trumper, i'm done with trump, or he's too old. the third bucket was way down. here it was, i like nikki haley because she's woman and she's running, and maybe they're a woman. and i like chris dance on things. we did hear the strongman thing -- in that her bucket, right now, if politics has become cultural, it is your cultural identity, i found a lot of folks this week a republican who say i'm a republican, nikki haley is not really that republican. he won iowa, it's over, why are we even have endless competition? there is a fidelity there that i think with underscore this week. >> viktor orban is having that weird moment and trump speeches, but this may be working. david plouffe, we'll take a

quick break in a moment. but what is the piece of data or thing that stuck out to you as a surprise or the most interesting development from tonight's outcome? >> i think, you know, the polls i think on average clear support 20, the last global was 22. so i'm not sure that trump, this is like some great outcome. so the margin doesn't surprise me. i think the thing was surprised me jen, was less that result than his speech tonight. it is really hard to screw up a victory speech and politics. it's easier than a and basketball yet he screwed it up. and i guarantee that was a plan. i'm sure there was a speech and the teleprompter and nikki haley really got under his skin. i think you can destabilize trump. you have to be willing to play his dirty game that little bit,

but you know, that surprised me. and my guess is, i agree with, you haley may not make it to south carolina, but trump's really ungracious page and unhinged speech, i think is going to make it harder for her haley to take the off ramp. and i would say. this he's basically, he's not accepting president, but he's a quasi-incumbent president. and hyperlink over 50 tonight. and he barely got over 50 in iowa. so there is a lot of people out there who are not general election voters. they're competing in republican primaries. even republicans, not independents, who i think are in the exit polling, concerned about trump being that nominee. so for that biden campaign, if they can and a point or two of republican support over what they got in 20, that's a really

important ingredient to winning. those things stood out to me. at the end of the, day haley's out of. road trump's going to be that nominee, unless something else happens -- and what trump should have said tonight is, the primaries, over nikki rent a great race, thanks to all my supporters. joe biden, i'll see you and wisconsin. but he didn't do that, personally. >> he can't help himself. >> he can't help himself. >> you are, of course, absolutely right. he could have done a three, five, eight-minute speech that was quick, to the point. but he only has a lemitar and i let normalcy. we'll dig into this for. there will take into exit polls and much more. michael steele, claire mccaskill, thanks so much for staying up late with us. we have got a lot more to get to. we'll be back after a quick break from manchester, new hampshire.

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donald trump became the first republican candidate to went both iowa and new hampshire since 1976, went those two states begin latent the primary calendar. and while his nomination looks more inevitable than ever, the exit polls make of him some clues about his strength and quickness as the campaign moves forward. on the issues, trump i performed nikki haley on voters who show the economy memphis boast to them. and he won big on emigration -- but lot of people in hampshire. on the flip side, nikki haley bait trump was voters who said foreign policy or abortion or the most important of them. it more fundamental indication of voter preference was voters who believe the big lie. unsurprisingly, trump overwhelmingly won supporters who believe [inaudible] >> joining our competition and manchester, mark marie -- mark, lights, and of course we still have vaughn and james here, and david plouffe. late stick and some of the data. i gave a little bit of an overview of her. it's you learned a lot from these exit polls, they're not

perfect, but -- >> i'm a big believer and a compulsion of the electorate. the fact this was a fewer percent republican, to me donald trump did really well. won those voters by 50 percentage points. but this town from a 2% republican, that we ended up seeing an eye. and as we look ahead to south carolina and super tuesday states, that republican range is going to be in the 60s and 70s, which shows you that haley going to have a tougher path. and the other and i really think is interesting, you didn't show there, the exit poll on two opposing or supporting bans on abortion. sex is x percent said they oppose bans on abortion. this is a republican primary electorate. so when we talk about clues, as we look to hit that general election, if it is precedent biden for recess donald trump, then abortion, even in a republican primary, you had two thirds saying, hey, i don't want you to ban abortion.

>> it's so interesting. because i think that number would have been different before the supreme court decision. it feels like it was such a motivator. so, vaughn, look at this data, and kind of his exit polls. imperfect, but they tell you a lot about the electorate. anything surprise? you >> i think when you're trying to understand that republican electorate here today, i think part of the competition also has to do how much did the year of 2023, and could these candidates have won on any of these issues. floor donald trump, he takes such a cudgel to any of the developments that come out of the news. we're talking about the immigration, border security measure here, that's currently about the struck in that u.s. congress. where is donald trump? he's on the phone what the speaker of the house saying don't goodness deal. >> because he wants to run on it! >> because he wants to run on it.

and when i said emigration is their top issue, who do they turn? to the guy who doesn't want the book is a great measure. he continues, despite not being the elected official, despite congress not having to listen to, him if he continues to own so many of these issues in a way that is the fun in the republican party. when i talk to folks, he continues to just throw much bait that leader of this republican party and he never stopped. >> the immigration issue, i've only been here for four days, but it obviously popped and the exit polls. it was and haley's stump speech, trump's stump speech. explain that to us. we are very far from the mexican border right now. we are close to that northern border, which have a talks about. what's going on here? >> this is been a cultural issue. not just its own pocket. it's a cultural issue and it has been for a very long time. it's fascinating. in the state, throws two things republican you can never met. with you can never met with texas, they always had to go lower or have the same.

the second was. guns now it's just emigration. immigration has obviously emerged as the leading issue in our poll, anyway, amount republican voters because of this cultural issue. >> it's such an interesting -- mark, i, mean the other thing that's interesting about the turnout is that lower percentage of democrats, as far as that data we, have and that large number of independents. what does that tell you about, i don't know, who these people are or some of them biden people or just out to kind of defeat trump? what's it all about? >> it shows you how unique new hampshire is. compared to iowa and the other contests. that big group of independent, undeclared voters. and also because it really wasn't a democratic race or at least sanctioned democratic primary. there was the ability for people who are and undeclared voters, they can exit vote in the democrat or republican primary, they say, i'm normally

a democrat voter but i nikki haley. like we did see 6% of, according to our exit poll, we were democrats. >> double what it was las time t. >> and it broke 80, 90 to 0 for haley over donald trump. so, yes, we ended up hearing from donald trump, either on his truth social and in his victory speech talking about how it was those moderates and democrats voted for nikki haley, and voting against me, to. so he was paying attention to those numbers as well. >> no doubt. vaughn hillyard, james pindell, mark murray, think you all so much for staying up late with made this evening. our live coverage from manchester continues after a very quick break. we'll be right back.

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democrat primary tonight in new hampshire, and he wasn't even on the ballot. photos had to write in his name and he still notched and easy win over congressman dana phillips. but the president doesn't when any delegates because that day in say selected south carolina

as that party's first primary because of the country's democratic -- demographics and penalized new hampshire for going ahead of. it so it's definitely symbolic but it's back to vandalism if you're in the biden campaign. so they're putting this behind. them the president also has a statement out tonight. it is now clear, the statements, is that donald trump will be the republican nominee. and my message for the country is the stakes couldn't be higher. so for president biden, weather nikki haley is staying in or how long she's staying, is move on to the general election against donald trump. four biden and the campaign, the race is on. joining me now, former chief spokesperson for vice president kamala harris, back a host of that weekend on msnbc, summit sandals tangent, and also democratic congressman maxwell frost of florida. congressman, i wonder if, you it does fill up at a turning point. here regardless of what nikki haley the sides were hellacious, and or what happens over the next couple.

the president and the campaign indicated, they're moving on to the general election. what did you make of that and do you think it's the right decision? >> logically it's the right decision. i think both of saying is, look, there has been a crawling primary process going on on republican that side. we have been wondering how long it will be drawn out and medical distant around for a movement, the far-right, that neo-fascist movement that wants to take away peoples rights across the entire company. and it's gonna be the agenda of the republican party going into this general election. so i'm glad that president put out this press release, which really puts out this stakes, the high stakes of this election. it's democracy versus somebody who's running a campaign of retribution. he's someone who's running because he wants to protect himself and not the country. so it's really unfortunate. the other thing i'll say we got from difference is that donald trump is not as popular and his party as he may be used to be. that's a really big sign here. >> that's true. and such an important point, as

we take into the state, throw some really interesting stuff in. they're talking about abortion, the opposition to the abortion ban, but lots of stuff, or could let's move on. for symone, let me bring in. you and i have done presidential campaigns. if you're at the incumbent or if you're in position, you might traditionally want the other side to battle it out, spend money, fight it out and attack each other. and this case, it feels a little different. for that biden campaign, they're moving on. my bet is for the preference for nikki haley to move out of this, so they can make it very clear to voters, this is between them and donald trump. what do you think? >> i agree with you, jen. and frankly, whether nikki haley stays or not, it's definitely joe biden, donald trump race right now. and i would just note for people out there, nikki haley is looking towards south carolina. i know there is a month between

the south carolina republican primary, but the numbers don't look right. and was not paid no money for either party it's lost their home state and got until. when only five folks in history who have lost their home state in general election and gone on to win. one was donald trump, and the other was nixon and he wasn't even on the ballot and california. so will the campaigns do with the, day they had a huge, huge, huge rally in virginia. a place where democrats swept the tables in the house of delegates and state senate in the last election on the issue of abortion. abortion is going to be a motivating issue. it's an economic issue. and it's something i think the campaign rightfully is leaning into. so i think we're going to see more of that, as we should. >> undoubtedly. to your point on abortion, there are about 12 states that will likely have ballot initiatives on abortion, florida being one of them. but there are a lot of issues that young people, key democratic -- demographics care about.

congressman, what would you like us to the campaign focus? on what's going to help bring back those young but hurt the president really needs to be supporting him in order to? when >> i think there is two very important messages here. the first is talking about the great work that's been done for the past several years, like the inflation reduction act, the most amount of resources ever put towards a climate crisis, first pace of gun violence prevention legislation passed in 30 years. but the second part is very important. we have to talk about what the future looks. like what are we going to do with this next four years? how is that going to impact people in florida, in north carolina, across the in her country? i was just saying -- they're very excited. but when i spoke with some specific folks, especially some of our undocumented volunteers, they were telling me that the

choice is simple. it's towards someone who's going to fight to reform the immigration system or someone who wants to depart my family. and marjorie taylor greene said it on the committee i sit. on day one, when donald trump is elected, there will be mass deportations and she smiled. she is talking about our teachers, the people who run our communities, she's talking about americans. and that's what the choice is. >> it's so important. you know who head donald trump standing by his side? marjorie taylor greene, this week in new hampshire. it's really interesting. congressman maxwell frost, thanks so much for staying up with us tonight. we appreciate your insight and your voice tonight. symone, i'm impressed with your recollection of history. stay right where you are. we have more to discuss. coming up next, donald trump

but comment that republican nobody may not be great news for lots of republicans trying to win their election next year. we'll talk about that, after a quick break.

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new hampshire tonight, it's increasingly clear his luck it's a play that republican nominee. that means, for the fifth major election cycle and of, wrote including both midterm and presidential, heroes donald trump will again be the face of the republican party. if history is any indicator, that to be a big problem for republicans across the country. because outside of trump's surprise victory in 2016, his presence as the republican leaders being at mid negative from the party. and 20, attain republicans lost the house to democrats in large parts due to close work and objects driven by separate waters and a spike in voter enthusiasm. in 2020, democrats want a trifecta, keep in the house, winning that senate, and of course the white house. and in 2022, republicans historically underperformed in large part because trump backed candidates and competitive races, who won their primaries but went on to lose in the general election. the pattern here is that maga base, the driving force and that republican party right now will absolutely turn out for donald trump. the other side of that cohen is for all that mega devotees, there's been more voters unwilling to vote for trump, or

more importantly unwilling to show up and vote against. tim that will take off members of donald trump's own party. >> do you still believe his tech people down, governors races? >> first question, trump on the ticket heard down ballot races. >> i have people who came up to me who said they voted for reagan and have been conservative for a whole life and said they don't want to vote for trump again. he's got to solve that. i think there is an enthusiasm problem overall, and i think there are some voters that have checked out at this point and you've got to find a way to get them back. >> with donald trump, republicans have lost almost every competitive election. we lost the senate, we lost the house. we lost the white house. we lost in 2018. we lost in 2020, and we lost in 2022. >> that was nikki haley tonight. so there we go.

david plouffe and symone sanders-townsend are back with me, and joining the conversation is ted miller, the communications director for jeb bush's 2016 campaign and is now a writer for the bulwark. tim, i'll start with you. you are the first mate must conversation. it seems like a catch 2022. trump brings in voters -- republicans have lost three times now on this strategy. help it is this really for down-ticket races? >> i'll try to bring some high energy as the fresh meat, jen. why are they doing it again? because they like donald trump. i don't get. it's it's coat, but -- republican voters are extremely excited about donald trump. there is an equal degree of voters who are turned off and

disgusted by him then turn out. that's what democrats have done well in off year elections. you didn't get into special elections, because that democratic base is so excited to vote against the maga candidate. i don't know if you suffered through that california senate debate last, not that republican on the ballot there, steve kirby, wouldn't even say if he's voting for trump. that shows you the trouble these guys get in. i'm thinking of dave -- in the pennsylvania senate race. -- with trump on the pellets, you can't do it. you get asked about trump every day, have to turn up and campaigned with trump, get asked about crazy stuff with trump stands to. him so it is a problem for

republicans, no doubt. >> david, we've heard a number of his opponents acknowledge that. so i think we're in agreement. here you'll front lots of campaigns -- who are the candidates? tim mentioned bob casey. either others who can benefit from plastering donald trump over their campaign? heads our we going to say this all across the country and these swing districts and swing states? >> i don't know if it will be the main method, but shortly for swing voters, suburban voters, even maybe 58 year old what republican men. there are an emmet with donald trump to, right? i think sparred senate and house candidates will figure out, just as the biden campaign, will help to target those people. and trump is kind of like that political version of a cooler in las vegas. everything he touches goes cold with the republican party. even when he won in 16, it was a black spawn event. he won the presidency, getting 46. 1% of the vote nationally

and won some battleground states with over 41%. so,. yeah i agree with him. i think they like. him a lot of them thought he won in 2020, some of them think he's a president in exile. but i think basically the folks who are either running in battleground states, or lost in 18 and 20 and to, do they have the scorers. trump has been political death and there is nothing to suggest that this is a guy who is either interested or capable of growing his vote coalition. he'll ride or die with his maga core. and for a guy that needs to think about a way to add in six or seven states, including states that have senate races, key governor races and tons of house races. and don't forget, the house will probably be decided in new york and california, plus trump is certainly going to get tattooed. >> it's so tricky for these candidates. i almost feel bad for them. not to bet, a little. bed symone, i'm enjoying this fancy free ron desantis we saw and that clip. he alluded to and problem out

there, if trump's the nominee. what do you make of that and where do you think of for the biden campaign, thinking about trying to turn out and engage people, you're taking advantage of that? >> i think it is a concern the trump campaign should have, i don't know if it's a concern donald trump himself sheers, but i also see that clip and i see ron desantis and governor sununu and the former governor haley and all of those individuals, even just today, governor had it said in an interview on another and work, she thought donald trump was still fit to be president. ron santas interest donald trump, hasn't swung it, but interesting. governor someone says if nikki haley who does not win, he'll support donald trump. -- folks should be concerned about, republicans who don't like new hampshire -- donald trump but will vote for him anyway. those voters want to support a republican candidate, even if the person is donald trump. so if i'm the biden campaign, i'm looking at those soft trump republicans, if you will. they're not never trumpers, but there, or ma'am, i don't know. trumpers folks looking at how to the.

base how to drop and this is around black voters, black women, black men, younger officers across the. poor woman, period. separate woman especially which are more diverse now -- and the oldest millennials or 40, 40. one how can i grow drive up those numbers to ensure kind of ember, let's be honest, october when people start early voting in some of, has that the enthusiasm is up there and folks are not banking on soft trump support? >> you just gave the biden team about 100 things on there to do list for tomorrow morning, symone, so there you go. thanks so much for staying up with us tonight. we have another hour of results coming up. caffeinated guests coming. by stay where you are, we'll be right back after this.

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welcome back to our special coverage of the 2024 new hampshire primary. i'm here on the ground in manchester where earlier tonight nbc news projected that former president donald trump will go two for two in the race for the ren nomination. here's where the results in new hampshire stand right now. trump won pretty convincingly in a state basically tailor made for his opponent, nikki haley. these results were enough for joe biden to look past tonight and straight onto the general election. he put out a statement saying it is now clear donald trump will be the republican nominee, and my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher, game on. so the president has seen enough. biden is moving on, the campaign is moving onto the general election whether or not nikki haley stays in the race. she said tonight, by the way, that she is. but my colleague says she'll have some hard conversations with her advisers in the next few days if not next few hours.

because it might be hard to believe over what we've seen over the next two weeks but the states only become more trump friendly. president biden might be right this thing may be over before it began. for his part donald trump is digging in, and i noticed a slight shift in tone. first let's listen to trump after last week in iowa showing some uncharacteristic grace towards his rivals. >> i want to congratulate ron and nikki for having a good time together. we're all having a good time together. i think they both did actually did very well. >> the temporary normal tone there from trump, very brief. but here was trump tonight singing a very different tune, i think it's fair to say. >> i said i can go up and i can say to everybody, oh, thank you for the victories, it's wonderful, or i can go up and

say who the hell was the impostor that went up on the stage before and, like, claimed a victory? she did very poorly actually. she had to win. i have here if he promises to do it in a minute or less, but the only person more angry than let's say me but i don't get too angry, i get even. >> now, if this is actually the start of the general election, trump is probably going to need the kind of voters who supported haley, and that may not be the best way to win them over, what he just did. joining me now in manchester deputy managing editor for politico, samstein. also with us david plouffe, former communications director for jeb bush's 2016 campaign and now writer at large for the bulwark, tim miller. and former communications director for president barack obama and co-host of the msnbc podcast "how to wip 2024," jennifer palmieri. let's pull up if we can in the

control room that clip of haley and her talking today because clearly she got under his skin. and i think we should play it. when you're ready let me know. okay, let's play it. >> with donald trump you have one bout of chaos after another. this tweet, that senior moment. you can't fix joe biden's chaos with republican chaos. the other day donald trump accused me of not providing security at the capitol on january 6th. now, i've long called for mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75. trump claims he'd do better than me in one of those tests. maybe he would, maybe he wouldn't. but if he thinks that, then he should have no problem standing on a debate stage with me. >> so basically that, i think,

may have made trump lose his mind a little bit. which means it's kind of not hard to do that. >> right. >> we saw kind of different shades of trump, the iowa version for a moment, maybe also in the fox town hall a few weeks ago. he was a little normy for a while in there. what does it tell you, sam, about what the trump campaign has to kind of manage as we move into the general election? >> well, i mean, there's a certain argument i guess with trump being up there saying you can't claim victory if you didn't win when obviously that was exactly what he did after the 2020 elections. i think it's a frustration. i think basically the trump people when you talk to them they just want to get on him. they see the writing on the wall and know the math. it's not over in the sense that only 3% of the delegates have been awarded, but the path just gets more and more difficult for haley going forward. these states get more conservative. in new hampshire it's going to be in the 60s and south carolind

in nevada. that to me signals the movement towards the general election. we don't want to spend time doing this, we want to just unload for joe biden. everything's personal, and he can't fathom the idea this person who he appointed to the u.n. won't kiss the ring as one would say. >> clearly. palmieri, when i saw nikki haley go out tonight and the first thing i thought was mumary thinks this is a good idea. if you're nikki haley right now what are you talking to your campaign advisers about? what are those conversations like? what are they considering about the decision that needs to be made in the next couple of weeks? >> he did a good job tonight

trying to buy her time to make a decision. we were complaining clast week why she didn't get on a plane and do a rally when she landed in new hampshire and try to show -- manufacture what we have to do, manufacture momentum from iowa to new hampshire. she didn't do any of those things. tonight it fell like she did great. she came out early when it felt like trump's margin of victory wasn't that high. she gave a justification for why she should stay in. you know, it doesn't hold up over the course of the next month, but it holds up tonight. it's truly a two-person race. she's gaining ground. she's certainly performed better than the polls suggested. she can say you're headed to my home state, and what person says we're not going to drop out of a two-person race heading to my home state. there's a caucus and there's a

primary and she's not on the ballot in the caucus, it's bonkers to even try to explain, but that's not really an option for her. so -- and does she want to lose so badly in south carolina, in her home state? i don't know. but i think they certainly have the week to figure it out. you know, maybe after nevada is the time to drop out, but, you know, or maybe they say they're going to hang in there and go to super tuesday. it's not the second week or so after south carolina and, you know, hang in there for -- but there's not a lot of attractive options for them to consider right now. >> no, it's so tricky. and it's interesting because everyone talks about the brilliant delegate strategy,

plouffe, run in 2008. you get into this winner takes all by mid-march. explain to this here why a delegate strategy for haley doesn't really work. >> well, just the math isn't there, so these elections haven't happened. but if we look at the demography what we learned for these first two and look at south carolina for stupor tuesday, there might be some states haley gets north of 40 but trump's going to have a massive delegate lead, and maybe district of columbia, maybe vermont doesn't need to be the only two places right now. so all those winner take all states, you know, the democratic side works all the way through. trump really benefitted from back in 2016. listen, i don't think trump's speech tonight is going to make it easy for haley to get out.

i think the fact she got under her skin motivation to stay in. maybe there's new ways to run some cy ops against him. you know, they're thinking we stay and get some delegates in march and what if something happens health wise? this isn't a person that looks physically well right now verbally or physically, and the speech tonight was just bonkers political malpractice. now, i'm familiar with that but really stupid in my view. so at the end of the day she's probably -- i think, listen, maybe week beforesic, maybe two weeks before i don't think she wants to lose her home state 70-30, so maybe that's when she gets out. i think they probably do have their eye towards march, which is we'll get some delegates where we are in new hampshire and standing when something happens. that's not a particularly winning strategy. what trump should have done tonight is ignored nikki haley, said nikki haley ran a great race and now it's me and joe biden. for the life of me i don't know

why he didn't do that. maybe he'll do a do over tomorrow with his supporters but that to me was quite puzzling tonight. >> it's very odd. he also pulled tim scott on stage. there's a lot of strange things in this speep. one of the take-aways is it's easy to get under his skin. wave laurened a lot over the last decade he was front and center for us. what do you do with that if you're the biden campaign, running super pac ads on the outside and trying to show the public who he is on a regular basis? >> we're about to stare down the barrel of the longest general election campaign in american history, so there's going to be plenty of time to try to get under his skin using tactics such as this. i think the biden campaign has not said exactly their strong suit for reason, like to take higher ground. but there'll be a lot of other surrogates provided, a lot of

groups out there able to troll trump and get under his skin and get reaction from him. i do wonder why we're doomed to relive 2016 over and over again and why nikki haley is doing exactly the same ting all the losing candidates did in 2016. you know, why wait until your campaign is on its last legs to troll donald trump in such a way to get a response from him? you know, this is very -- her speech tonight was good. i agree with jen it's kind of reminisce nlt of rubio, going after trump with his little hands after the campaign was already over. where was this labor day, right? there was no campaign -- donald trump has essentially won this nomination, and there was no campaign run against him. and so, you know, to me that's pretty maddening especially when you see a guy tonight that looks very weak, very insane, not, you know, particularly dominant. you'd think somebody would have i don't know try to beat him,

but nikki haley and ron desantis didn't try to do that. >> i think we're in the 1:00 a.m. hour when we say he's insane and bringing the little hands back. the other thing is the biden campaign essentially said it's a general election, we're moving forward. they did a big abortion event today, obviously the president did two democracy speeches. what do you think that looks like? and do you think that was the right choice by them? >> i think -- and we talked about this, i think they came into january saying game on, when he did that valley forge speech, that sort of setup the stakes of the election that was on january 5th, january 6th. they've been paying close attention to early primary states and battleground states, three trips to pennsylvania in ten days in january, hit south carolina, and then, you know, it's interesting to say today was the new hampshire primary,

and so you're a little nervous about what's going to happen on the democratic side in a new hampshire primary. i thought the smart to have a big proabortion rights aevent, a lot of enthusiasm, big crowd and that was not in d.c. that was in battleground-ish, purplish state of virginia. they announced our friend would be leaving the white house to join julie chavez rodriguez who's the campaign manager of the biden campaign. it's not surprising. this is the normal thing that happens in a white house. senior leaders leave to join a campaign, but it shows like focus, right? and then the third thing that win in new hampshire tonight was really important. 67%. to ask new hampshire voters to come out and write in joe biden

after he dissed the state by taking away their first of the nation status in the primary, that's a big ask, and that could have gone badly. it's the kind of thing no one actually worries about other than the campaign, and they did a great job. i understand the president called the congressional delegation in new hampshire tonight to thank everyone who's good at being gracious and then to finally declare this is the general election, and it's like game one, we're ready to go. i think haley staying in is fine for biden because she is obviously getting under his skin, we're learning important things every time there is an election night, but, you know, they're saying -- telling all of us he's the guy we're going to, you know, trade our fire on him. >> yeah, and they're telling everyone it's him, don't be wishful thinking about an alternative to him which i think is also important. we do have a sneak in a very

quick break, but everyone is sticking around with us. our special late night coverage of the new hampshire primary continues after this. stay with us. we'll be right back. >> for a lot of meme politics is way too personal. it's not personal for me. i voted for trump twice. i was proud to serve america in his cabinet. i agree with many of his policies. i decided to run because i'm worried about the future of our country and because it's time to put the negativity and chaos behind us.

with donald trump's win in new hampshire we are one step closer to a likely rematch of the 2020 election. but for a candidate who essentially play axes the incumbent it's not exactly the margins you'd expect especially considering the actual incumbent, president joe biden, won handily tonight in new hampshire in a write-in campaign. and taking further to exit polls it's possible donald trump could have an enthusiasm problem. according to exit polls from nbc news, 62% of voters in tonight's primary don't consider themselves part of the maga movement, and 38% of tonight's voters would still be dissatisfied with if trump were to win the nomination. that's a significant share and worth discussing at least. it means there's a real question how many of the 85,000 voters who voted for nikki haley would be willing let's sigh to vote

for biden. and that trend is not just in new hampshire but one maybe we're going loo look at nationwide. back with me is deputy managing editor sam stein, and joining me is national correspondent. david plouffe, tim miller are back with me as well. you're dressing up our table. >> it's humiliating. >> bringing some class here. this is obviously an outcome telling us whether or not the republican nomination. there's interesting data for the biden campaign, too. more democrats voting in this primary tonight than typical, double the number from the past. i think you could argue these are people motivated to vote against trump. what else are your take-aways from your reporting here about some of those haley voters whether they'd be willing to vote for biden if frump is the likely nominee? >> what we're seeing in new hampshire and iowa is the same

coalition that left the republican party and voted with joe biden in 2020 and still has concerns about donald trump. he is weakest in those suburban well-educated areas. if you look at the map so far today that's where nikki haley is performing the strongest and that's a warning sign and what she tried to burglary about when she gave that speech, and that's a concern for donald trump's campaign, right? he has run up the margin in rural areas. he did it in 2016 to win, joe biden cut up those margins in 2020, and the early results show if he's going to win again in 2024, donald trump is going to need to swell that vote in suburban areas because he's capped in the suburban areas. this is the traditional part of the republican party has has left under donald trump, and he needs to win back more voters in other parts of the state. >> it's important to remember we talk about the coalition, the people biden needs to bring

back. he did beat trump by 7 million votes in 2020. sam, you wrote a story about independents and may be some warning signs i think it's fair to say. tell us about your reporting. >> it basically mirrors what shane is saying there. i think it's worth remembering when donald trump was running in 2016 his coalition was very different. he was actually making appeals to independent and moderate voters in new hampshire. now, those voters may not be your traditional independents, may be conservative leaning and also they may have drift over the passing years and become more trumpest, but tonight his appeal was really centered on self-identified conservative voters. and if you look at the data points, the moderates broke against him alarmingly if you're the trump campaign, those people if you talk to them during the course of the week, they're not just pro-haley voters, they are anti-trump voters. you ask what would it take to vote for donald trump in an

election and one said i would rather die. >> it's very dramatic. >> you're not going to vote for trump, i get it. there's other data points and i thought it was interesting. if trump was convicted, would he be fit to serve? in new hampshire the voters who supported haley were unanimously against it. the voters who they say 14%, yes, 84% no. that shows real deep-seated anger and angst about his trials. it suggests that this electorate at least the ones that were voting for haley are not going to be surefire trump voters surely become the nominee. and if you're trump, look, there's good ways to spend this evening. you've obviously made history, you've done it by big margins in both states. he's a quasi-incumbent to some degree. he is the guy in the republican circle, and if you are still -- if your competition is getting 44%, there are warning signs. >> there are some warnings, and

there's a trove of data here as there is in the outcome of the election. what are your take-aways for signs there's some for trump, some interesting and compelling for biden. >> the big thing i think would be compared to 2020 when biden did, you know, well with enough republican voters and, you know, independents who lean republican, that was part of how he won that close race. and that was during covid where i think there was a lot of higher income college educated republicans and independents really turned off by trump's performance or lack thereof. i think the pool of voters that the biden campaign can target is much larger than in '20. and, you know, from a campaign perspective, that is hugely beneficial to them. so i don't know if it's, you know, double, it's probably not quite that but in wisconsin and

arizona and georgia, and michigan, but you've got core democratic voters and you want to make sure those turn out. then you look at, you know, republicans, particularly women but not just women, independents, and moderates generally. in america the person who wins the moderate vote almost always wins the presidency. and some of the polls i think people are very worried about at the end of last year and some of them even now i think probably showed trump overperforming the results you're going to get. so that's the benefit for the biden campaign you look in iowa and new hampshire -- by the way, this is not republican general election voters. so if you expand it out to people elected to vote in a general election and of course we live in a world of data modeling, so you can model in every state who looks just like those voters who are saying they're not going to vote for trump or who voted for haley, but the people who particularly are saying they wouldn't vote for trump despite the republican

primary, that is data gold for the biden campaign. >> they have so much they can pull from these primary races to kind of lessons learned from the general. tim, one of the groups of people who have not been fully out there entirely some of these former trump staffers, former trump officials, some of whom have spoken out at limited times. i'm not saying they would appeal to all these haley voters, but what is the best strategy with them? what can be done? they may not want to be at the convention with joe biden but what's the best way to get them out there and show them there's this bridge, come over, this is the better side? i'm going to invite them now that i have that role, but still. >> i think we learned in the 2020, you learned these gettable voters want to hear from people like them.

so they don't really want to be lectured by never trumper consultants like me. they want to hear from people who also like people like trump. having people who liked trump and vote under trump in 2020 vocally making the case to these nikki haley voters who are going to be an important swing demographic, that they saw them first-hand and what these guys suspect about trump is even worse than what they believe. i think that's going to be a compelling message to a certain demo of republican voters. if you would help me, there's one little damper i have to put on all this. >> that's okay, damper us. >> i'm sorry there are green shoots for biden, no doubt. and these haley voters are important. but donald trump three years ago was impeached. there are republican members of the senate for the first time ever in his own party who vote today convict him and prevent him from running. when he announced his candidacy his family wouldn't show up, and right now he's about to win the

biggest landslide in the history of the republican primary in modern times. so there's some weak signs, no doubt. there's some signs for biden to exploit, no doubt. but it's alarming given his record just how clear this victory is. i understand he's a quasi-incumbent, but, still, there's not really any parallel in the republican side. >> classic tim miller. >> classic tim millermism i think it's important to recognize as tim just alluded to, this is quite a comeback, right? he just made a major comeback, he's now likely to become the republican nominee. >> there are polls in new hampshire from the beginning of this primary he was trailing ron desantis, and it was not aforegone conclusion we would end up in this spot but things happen. primarily he went on trial on the indictments around him, and here we are. >> that's a perfect tee up to what we'll be talking about after a quick break. david plouffe, thank you so much for your time, analysis, staying

up late. i really appreciate it. and up next we're going to dig into that exit poll sam mentioned earlier about how republicans feel the possibility of donald trump convicted of a crime. we'll talk about that coming up next. crime. we'll talk about that coming up next attention hearing loss sufferers! do you struggle to hear loved ones? do you have trouble keeping up with conversations? do you listen to tv on max volume? hearing loss affects your life. you miss out on important moments... you feel alone. start hearing better today with rca's all new, advanced hearing aids. these aren't cheap amplifiers that don't really work, and you'll never have to pay thousands again. the fda now allows us to bring true, high-quality hearing aids direct to you. through rca's hearing america program, you can get your choice of two,

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after his win in new hampshire tonight, the next big event on trump's kaldder could

very well be an appearance in court. the second trial stemming from e. jean carroll's defamation lawsuit against him is expected to begin again on thursday. of course the former president has essentially been using his court appearances as an extension of his presidential campaign. and although lots of republican voters aren't too concerned about his legal peril, there are many who are. an exit poll in new hampshire shows 42% of voters said they would not consider donald trump fit to be president if he were convicted of a crime. so the gop might want to consider this. will trump wrap up the nomination as quickly as he wants to, which is very soon. and if he's then found guilty in a criminal trial, the party may be stuck with a candidate lots of americans say they wouldn't support. sam, let me start with you because we're kind of moving maybe into this general election here rapidly especially if you listen to joe biden. trump has been running this campaign in a courtroom.

he's been spending more time in a courtroom than he has been been hugging babies, picking up babies for the better. does he shift that now, or do you think he continues to run the same strategy moving forward? >> that's a good question. first of all, i want to do like a tim miller thing where you step back and acknowledge the weirdness of it all. >> it is weird. if you think about the idea that a presidential candidate would deliberately take himself off the campaign trail to go sit in a court where he's on trial for defaming a woman that doesn't really compute in -- that's not like in traditional -- you wouldn't find a strategist who'd recommend doing that, but it worked for trump in the context of this primary. does it work for trump outside

the primary, which is i think what you're getting at. if it starts to shift and nikki haley gracefully goes out, does he stop doing this stuff, and i actually don't know. part of what's motivating him is general anger over the trials and obviously he feels he's being unfairly prosecuted and maligned and all that stuff. his team is transparent it's also to his political advantage in the context of a republican primary, they fund raised well and watched almost every single competitor, and i understand rallied behind him and as many said they would pardon him. but if you look at these numbers, i mean, yeah, republican voters are cool with it, in fact support him over it, but the general electorate find it appalling and frankly will not vote for him if he's convicted. >> i was going to say even in those numbers you see what share of republicans might have concerns if he gets convicted. i think what we might see is so

many voters eventually come to agree with donald trump. >> he moves the goal posts and they come after him so far in the base. >> the base has been enough to likely get him a nomination for a third consecutive election. one of the things i found in the exit polls in iowa was a number from 2016 to 2024. so in 2016 he was in fifth place among voters who cared about a candidate who shares my values. he won only 5%. and this time he dominated that group. he won 43% of empeople. so donald trump's values didn't dramatically change in the last eight years. >> in fact, there were a lot of things that happened you would argue were worst value propositions. >> and yet they think, the republican party base thinks what he stands for is whatever they stand for. if he's convicted i think that could change. the middle of the road is going to be absolutesly turned off, but the base of the republican party is going to be with him.

>> the biden campaign -- joe biden first of all is such a traditional. this is one of theis people like about him but hard core progressive and supporters he doesn't speak about the legal cases, he doesn't wade into them. the campaign doesn't really do that either. do you think that's their strategy moving forward or how do they deal with this? it's going to be such a dominant issue. >> i'm thinking about the summer o '22 when the jan 6 committee had their hearings. i know the campaign will do what the campaign will do. we both know -- you used to have to answer questions about how president biden will not involve himself in these kinds of court cases. and i don't think that they will do it, but i think that there will be a concentrated effort to

tell, you know, as these trials are going onto tell voters a larger story about it. the jan 6 committee was so good at telling that narrative, and they had a big impact. so it's kind of hard to process because we certainly have not seen this before, but i think when these trials do start happening, and i heard just anteic dotally watching the coverage today people bring up specifically the classified documents at mar-a-lago as being a concern. and obviously jan 6 being a concern, so many people who voted for haley said even they refused to buy into the big lie. that jan 6 committee at the hearing was supposed to start in the spring possibly even march, and this is a whole other dynamic that's going to get unleashed that we haven't -- you know, we haven't seen before, but it could be a really big deal. the campaign is not going to ignore it. the biden campaign is very aware what's happening. it's just a question of who the

right voices are that's talking about it. >> and how they talk about it, yeah, exactly. you can kind of do this in a sweeping way, right? like you did in the democracy speech. it's interesting how they turn up the volume a little bit. as you, palmieri and i are recovering political communicators in a way, and one of the things you have to think about often is how you stay on your message but how do you break through on a dominant story line? what would you be doing if you were the biden campaign about all these legal cases going to dominate the air waves and oxygen over the next couple of months? >> well, it's part of the democracy message, right? it's part of the maintaining normalacy message, and so i don't think i would be afraid to talk about it if i was the biden campaign. and that doesn't necessarily mean joe biden doesn't need to be standing outsideicide the courthouse in new york and

vaughn hilliard and whoever is supporting that there doing man on the street interviews about it necessarily, but he can talk about it, give interviews, speak about it from the white house. the democrats can have surrogates there that are bird dogging donald trump at his various trials -- there can be paid advertisements in these key states. i think there's a lot of voters out there that don't even realize donald trump has been civilally at least convicted of rape. i think there are people out there who don't realize it. i think there's a lot that can be done, and this campaign is going to be run with that as the context. >> sam stein, jenper palmieri, tim miller, i know you would all like to stay another hour. thank you for staying up late with us and really helping make clear a lot of the results

tonight. and what's coming up moving forward. up next a conversation i've been looking forward to all night. no one knows more about these candidates i promise you and the states they're competing in. they join me next. nk those two . they join me next. have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're

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from my experience working on campaigns and i've done a few of them, i know that no one knows more about these candidates i promise you in these early states than the

campaign embeds, and these year there are nine of them for nbc news, and they've been working around the clock, i mean that literally, traveling the miles in cars, planes, trains, walking to get to the next campaign event. and i'm so excited because four of them were able to stay up very late with us tonight. and joining me now four of our nbc campaign embeds. covering scepter tim scott's campaign and a mixed bag i would say, covering nikki haley's campaign, and living in new hampshire for the last several months preparing for this night. i also wanted you all to have a text chain with each other which you shared things i really want to be on. let me start with you because i just mentioned you were on tim scott's campaign, he obviously covered his rise, his fall, his support of the trump team. tell us a little bit about what you learned about his journey and really about new hampshire

over the last several weeks? >> well, tim scott certainly was an interesting one because i think in many aspects his time in new hampshire proved detrimental to his campaign in some aspects. i think one thing you learn about the new hampshire voters here is that it's a very unique culture here. you know, the voters take seriously the fact they are in the first in the nation primary, and that informs how they interact with candidates i take advantage having access to these candidates. and they'll take the opportunity if you're someone like tim scott that strolls into a diner to hit you with the tough question if you can't stand up to trump, how are you going to stand up to xi jinping? >> you can't just have a cheeseburger here. >> and if you're dealing with a tim scott, a nikki who at times aren't the most open with press oftentimes they way you got into their brain was taking advantage of a voter and that's how you got the information and that's

something personally i hadn't seen in any other state. >> it's such an interesting point. voters ask really great questions, which is such a good point. jake, you've been given the task of following the trump campaign, and one of the things we've been talking about a bit this evening is how important it is to understand the demographics, the dynamics of the trump coalition of the people who support him. so tell us a little bit about that, anything that surprised you, and kind of what's going on as they look ahead to south carolina. >> sure. so four embeds are sitting here. we all have this unique opportunity to really like understand our candidate in a strange way. we know words they're going to say often before they say them. looking at donald trump tonight in new hampshire, they had two big take-aways. one is that he was very pleased with the election results here in the granite state of a wide margin of victory. secondly, he was not so pleased with nikki haley's speech and her saying she'd not be bowing out of the race and her sticking

it through. >> he was clearly displeased it's safe to say. >> the entire time from the moment he stepped on the stage from his victory speech, which is typically emblematic of welcoming the party in and a message of unity, he said this is not going to be a normal victory speech, and a remainder of the time he was staunchly critical of nikki haley saying she was an imposture, saying she falsely claimed victory of the election. now as donald trump looks ahead to nevada and south carolina, he's finding himself in this interesting position where he's threading this needle trying to look ahead to a general election and make this pivot and also being stuck in a general election where there's still a potential viable candidate that exists and so -- >> yeah, both dynamics are so important, and sounds like you're going to be following, reporting into nbc news about all of them. you've had a bit of up and down -- not you personally but nikki haley -- let me rephrase that. the haley campaign because, you know, just a couple of weeks ago when chris christie dropped out

it felt like she was going to be on the rise, and tonight she did better i would say in some expectations but didn't beat him. tell us a bit about that campaign, what their vibes are internally right now and kind of what you're hearing from them. >> they're feeling confident about the fact they're going to south carolina next, but when you consider the fact you look at some of the external polling that came out here in new hampshire, and they did well. their whole game plan was to do better in iowa. she want today have a stronger showing, and they feel they've done that. but now she gets to create an opportunity where she has an opportunity to say, okay, there's a binary choice between herself and donald trump. that is what she's always desired to present to the american people, and now she has that. so now you move onto south carolina, which of course is her home state, but it's also a state that trump has a lot of success in the past. but she feels and loves the fact that she can be that underdog. and even though people look at

the polling in south carolina and say, okay, there's going to be challenges there, nikki haley sees that and says that's an opportunity to present myself as showing i have lung evty in this race. >> it's going to be an interesting one to watch. we'll see if she's in. she has a rally tomorrow, right? >> she does in charleston. not wasting any time. >> emma, you gave us a great run-down where to go out to eat in new hampshire. thank you for that first of all. >> any time. >> tell us a bit about this state. it is a unique state. the demographics are interesting and compelling, going to be a good state for nikki haley. what have you learned about new hampshire and the demographics of the state the last time you've been here? >> jen, if i were to use one adjective to describe the voters in new hampshire it would be strategic. and that really came into a clear focused picture this afternoon when i was at different polling locations. republicans who decided to vote for donald trump, many of them

told me they don't like his personality, but they like what he has to say about the immigration. they like the economy understand his presidency, and therefore strategically voted for a person who they knew versus someone who was an unknown, essentially in a national context. now, when it comes to undeclared voters, they are the ones who really shape the new hampshire primary because they make up about 40% of the electorate, and they get to choose whether they take a democratic or republican ballot, and that is really key here in new hampshire, and it's honestly been a bit of a roller coaster following the new hampshire primary because if there was a state nikki haley could really take it home to, it would really have been new hampshire because she is a moderate candidate backed by a moderate governor comparatively to someone like donald trump, and we saw her crowds. greg and i used to cover events where there were 30 people there back in july, and at some of her latest events there were 800 to 1,000 people. when you're competing against a

former president with the name i.d. that donald trump has, it makes it really difficult. >> it's very, very challenging. let me just say again there's no group harder working i promise you probably in nbc news than this group and our other five embed colleagues. thank you for all the reporting, thank you for all your insights and everything you guys have done over the last couple of months, longer than that. good luck on the trail ahead. that does it for me tonight. there's much more new hampshire primary coverage coming up after this quick break. for now good night, good morning, good middle of the night. all of that from manchester. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.

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we won both. i think it was -- somebody said you rarely -- if you win both, they've never had a