biased, but take it from adam's little brother. he'll make us all proud as california senator. i'm adam schiff and i approve this message. not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives of banks, big pharma, even top administration officials. katie porter. never taken corporate pac money - never will. leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks”

that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message. former president trump declares this primary all but over. we'll break down the big warning signs sent his way by new hampshire voters. as haley heads home to south carolina, where does her team see the path ahead? can she win her own state? ♪♪ good morning, it's so nice to have you with us. it is 10:00 eastern. i'm ann reporting alongside my colleague and friend, josé diaz-balart with special coverage this morning. nikki haley vowing to fight on despite donald trump's new hampshire win. >> haley insisting she has a path forward following her second place finish. >> new hampshire is first in the nation. it is not the last and the next

one is my sweet state of south carolina! [ cheers and applause ] >> who the hell was the imposter that went up on the stage before and like claimed a victory. she did very poorly actually. she had to win. the governor said she's going to win, she's going to win, she's going to win. then she failed badly. >> and today haley is already pressing on, planning a campaign stop in south carolina tonight even as trump attacks haley and says it's a done deal. >> joining us now, nbc's garrett haake and shack brewster in new hampshire. our steve kornacki is at the big board. also with us is boston globe political reporter james pindal. great to have all of you. i hope you are drinking lots of coffee this morning to keep it going because i know they were late nights for everybody. walk us through how things broke down in new hampshire. >> we still have some of the vote to be counted but basically more than 90% say donald trump is on course to win this thing basically by 11 points.

looks like that will be roughly his final margin over nikki haley. a double-digit margin for trump. a couple of things that went into this trump victory. haley early in the night it looked like she might be pulling a surprise or something, why she couldn't quite get there. concord, the third largest city in the state, the state capital. this is a more liberal, more democratic friendly area, and demographically is well suited to haley just in terms of the appeal she's shown to higher income voters, to places where there's a high concentration of college trees. we saw that in iowa. we certainly saw that in new hampshire. he wins concord. if she was going to be challenging trump to win statewide, she probably should have been at 60% here. even in her strong areas, just wasn't strong enough. we saw that pattern a lot. even in nashua, a city she definitely needed to win and not just win, but win by 5, 10 points, she ends up losing to trump. this is the second largest city

in the state over the massachusetts border. then the probably for haley too is something that we saw in iowa. in iowa she really struggled, the more you got into small towns, rural areas, lower median income, lower college degree concentration, that sort of thing. she struggled with that in iowa. she struggled with it in new hampshire, pull up a town, new ipswich, right on sort of the massachusetts border there. you go south you'd be getting close to fitchburg, mass, for a point of reference. again, this more fits the demographic that haley struggled with in iowa and indicates she didn't make gains with it here in new hampshire. and again, we just talked about this, the demographic mix in new hampshire. this electorate was basically 50% republican, 50% non-republican. on paper that's as good as it's going to get for nikki haley, and it's not good enough to get this in the single-digits. >> garrett, if you listen to team trump this morning, the primary is over. is that strategy going forward

framing this place as this race as done? >> reporter: listen to team trump the primary is over, if you listen to donald trump last night in his victory speech, the primary is clearly very much still going on. i think this is going to be the challenge for the trump campaign. nikki haley is not going away, and her speech last night clearly got under donald trump's skin to a certain degree. the trump team really only has one speed when it comes to running elections. they attack, attack, attack, and i think they're going to have to still go through nikki haley on their way to a general election that they would much rather be in right now. i've heard it both ways from the trump campaign overnight and this morning as they've tried to split their focus between haley and joe biden, going after the president when he's expected to do an event with the uaw i guess here coming. also very much understanding that they cannot totally put nikki haley in their rearview mirror. they want to make her life miserable in south carolina, isolate her and put the pressure on her to drop out in any way they can. they also know that's a decision

they can't force. and so i think you're going to see a pretty aggressive donald trump after both nikki haley and joe biden in the coming days and weeks. >> he didn't sound happy last night. he wasn't talking about unity. he was going after nikki haley directly. shaq, where does haley's camp see the path forward? are there any qualms about her home state as she heads there later today? >> reporter: they are acknowledging there is an uphill battle she'll face once she gets to south carolina. the messaging you're hearing from the campaign is despite it being her home state, she's been in this position before. they point to her run for governor, her run for congress before then. they say she's going to be putting in the work. you'll see that later today when she's out on the campaign trail. she'll be hitting the fund-raising circuit as our colleagues have reported in the past coupled of days, and you'll already see her campaign up with new campaign advertisements, and the messaging in those ads is similar to what we heard from her on the stage last night where she uses joe biden and how republicans feel about joe biden to bring down donald trump.

listen here. >> the worst kept secret in politics is how badly the democrats want to run against donald trump. >> trump's a loser! >> he's a loser! >> they know trump is the only republican in the country who joe biden can defeat. you can't fix -- you can't fix the mess if you don't win an election. >> reporter: now, the problem there for haley is that is very similar to what her messaging was, her closing messaging was here in new hampshire with a much more favorable electorate than she's going to see in south carolina, and despite that, she still had that double-digit loss here in new hampshire. as her campaign manager said in a memo that was released as voters were voting here in new hampshire, she has time to chip into that lead that donald trump has right now in polling and in the words of her campaign

manager, a month is a lifetime away in politics. >> james, you know that state so well, so what happened to nikki haley in that state? >> look, a couple of things happened. one was ron desantis dropped out, so while you had donald trump, this is his worst state. nikki haley's biggest opportunity in those early primary states, iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, nevada, he was over 50% in the three other states except for new hampshire where he was constantly in the middle 40 range. his dominant win in iowa began to wear people down here along with ron desantis dropping out, and he gained more points and he's well over 50%. i think the key here in new hampshire and going forward is if you look at the exit polls, only 35% of new hampshire republican primary voters identified as part of the maga movement. 35%. yet 61% stated they would be satisfied with him as the nominee. so as we figure out is this race over, should nikki give it up, that's obviously a conversation

about their donors. no one drops out because they lose a state, they drop out because they're broke. it also may wear down the argument to voters going forward of come on, he's got this nomination, and i'm kind of okay with it even though i'm not a maga person. >> you point outho exit polls. a reminder to our viewers, that is among the republican primary electorate, and so james, it's interesting what we're hearing from the rnc. i want to read you a statement from ronna mcdaniel, quote, if president trump comes out strong tonight, that's a clear message being sent by our primary voters. republicans know that if we're not united as a party behind our nominee, we won't be able to beat biden. what do you make of this rush it seems to get behind trump now? >> yeah, at one level it's logical enough. i'm not sure exactly how nikki haley has a path to get to the delegates she needs to become the republican nominee. on the other hand, joe biden's just kind of beginning his

campaign so it's not exactly like republicans are absolutely behind. and look, i think that nikki haley will be given some space, some space, i mean, clearly she got under his skin last night. clearly there's been a movement, another senator, john cornyn signed on on the trump train. i think that's 27 senators now out of the 49. so it's happening, but nonetheless, this is now a decision donors to figure out. ron desantis pretty clear the writing was on the wall monday night that he didn't get out until six days later. >> garrett haake, and shaquille brewster, james pindal, thank you so much. up next, reading the tea leaves from the exit polls, the issues most important to voters and the warning signs for donald trump. plus, what is nikki haley's path forward as she vows to stay in the race? and later from the campaign trail to the courtroom, voters divided on the future with a criminally charged former president. >> yeah, he's unstable. he's a criminal.

you know, he's -- and why the population isn't looking at him that way i don't know. i'm jut baffled by all the support that he gets. >> i voted for donald trump. he's the only one, i feel, that can prevent us from going further into this pit of ruination. de effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt. i think i'm ready for this. heck, yeah! with e*trade you're ready for anything. marriage. kids. college. kids moving back in after college. (applause) finally, we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna... ♪ and then we looked around and said, "wait a minute, this isn't even our stroller!" (laughter) you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse? mm-hmm. cool! i don't get it. here's to getting financially ready for anything. and here's to being single and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha? ( ♪♪ )

students... students of any age, from anywhere. using our technology to power different ways of learning. so when minds grow, opportunities follow. ♪ i am undeclared. i want a republican and voted for nikki haley. >> and why is that? >> because i don't want to see donald trump as a president. >> trump may win the election, but he may not survive to be running for president, so i think it's still open. >> i'm a republican, and you know, trump accomplished some things when he was president, but is more trouble than he's worth. >> this morning donald trump is projecting victory. he is calling for republicans to rally around his candidacy.

>> and yet, the new hampshire primary exposed some potential vulnerabilities for the former president when it comes to the general election. >> in fact, when you look at the breakdown of trump versus haley supporters, 73% of moderates broke nikki haley's way, moderates actually backed haley by over 50 points mods are a ou need to win the major swing states. >> joining us robert gibbs former press secretary for the obama administration. >> jennifer, how important are moderates and independents for the general election specifically for trump? >> they're extremely important. you can't win without it, and right now he's without it. he doesn't have them. we saw very clearly in the exit polls that the general election is going to be a great challenge for donald trump. he is weak where he needs to be strong when it comes to general election numbers. >> robert, the biden campaign responded to trump's win in new

hampshire this way saying, quote, the results confirm donald trump has all but locked up the gop nomination and the election denying anti-freedom maga movement has completed its takeover of the republican party. that is a quote from the biden campaign. do you get a sense the biden campaign wants trump to be the nominee. >> yeah, i think they do want trump to be the nominee. i think they're also looking at the results and understanding that he's almost certainly going to be the nominee. i think the biden campaign believes rightly that a long general election campaign where it's just the two of them and that biden can adequately frame the choice, that is a win for them. that behooves them strategically. i think there's no doubt, though, what we saw last night was just a blaring red siren for donald trump, and i think the reason he reacted to nikki haley's speech is that nikki haley laid out those very challenges that he has. all you have to do is look at

whether the general election results, the two times that donald trump has been on the general election ballot in 2016 and in 2020, he lost new hampshire, and i think his challenge with independent ss going to be indicative of what he's going to face with that group of voters going forward. he can rail on truth social that he doesn't want these people participating in a republican primary contest, but he can't stop them from participating in a general election. >> yeah, i mean, jennifer, republican voters were asked -- and this is in new hampshire -- if trump would be fit to be president if he ends up being convicted, 54% of voters said trump is fit for the presidency if convicted. that's among republicans. how dangerous is that non-54% for the former president. >> it's very dangerous, but it's really interesting to see where the republican party has gone, not over the whole last eight

years even but just over the last four years that they're willing -- you know, you look at those numbers of republicans who do not identify as part of a maga movement, they're not part of that 33% that will be with the president forever and ever no matter what, and they're saying, yeah, i can vote for him, they did vote for him yesterday in the primary. it's really a reflection, not just on donald trump but on the party itself. regarding the speech he gave last night and the way that he went after -- talked about, went after nikki haley, you got to remember the one thing -- we think that the one thing donald trump hates the most is somebody who is not loyal to him, somebody who's opposing him, somebody who's trying to defeat him, but what he hates even more than that is when it's a woman who is standing up to him, who is trying to defeat him, who is trying to take him down. and i think that's a lot of what we heard in his voice last night when he was going after nikki haley. but the numbers to robert's

point, the numbers are just not going to be there for donald trump in a general election. it's not offensive that joe biden wants to go -- would love to see him be the nominee. it makes perfect sense. it's politically strategically correct. >> robert, your take on half the republican primary voters saying trump would still be fit to be president if convicted? >> well, look, i think this is eight years and in this case, four years of republican voters being educated by their leader in donald trump who has convinced them that he is fit and that he's convinced them that these allegations and these criminal indictments are a conspiracy against him. he uses it as a central part of his message. they're coming after me. if they weren't coming after me, they'd be coming after you. it fuels the kind of grievance

message that we've heard really since that trip down the golden escalator. i think it's a continuation of that. i think, again, what really incenses particularly trump around this is understanding if nikki haley stays in this race, she accumulates delegates, right? we have super tuesday in march, but we also have the beginning of trump criminal cases potentially. >> that's right. >> she wants to be in position with delegates should donald trump trip up and not become the nominee. i think that's very unlikely, but her accumulating those delegates and staying in this race as the only active candidate gives her an advantage. >> less talk about the issues, jennifer. the exit polls on the issues when it comes to trump supporters, the economy and immigration are the most important issues. on the haley side, however, it's abortion and foreign policy. what does that divide tell you? >> well, again, that's obviously a clear reflection on where the

republican party is, and that divide is going to kind of feed their inability to coalesce and be more successful in the general election as well. you know, this issue with foreign -- i'm sorry -- actually, both of them, foreign policy and abortion, you know, the republican party has become very isolationist, which is very dangerous, and ever since the supreme court ruling overturning roe v. wade, abortion has been an enormous block for them. we saw it in 2022 as well. if they don't get -- if they don't get somehow on the right side of that, we haven't talked about this a lot during these last couple of weeks of the election, but i think that that is an issue that by itself can lose the presidency for them. >> on that issue, though, i mean, voters obviously across the country have been fired up on abortion, mostly on the democratic side or at least democrats benefitting from that enthusiasm, but could haley

benefit from that as well moving forward if she continues through the primary process? >> well, i think that she -- i mean, haley is better suited for a general election. there's no question about it, but i think it's an issue where her -- she's kind of really tried to finesse her language on it, and it doesn't help her to get that issue right for a general election if she can't get through the primary, you know, to begin with. those states, all those southern states, a lot of those super tuesday states, they're not going to be happy where she is on that issue. she isn't right enough on it for them. you know, and we have to remember that new hampshire is very much a reflection of what the general election might look like, but it's not at all a reflection of what most of the rest of the states are going to look like that she's got to get through in order to get there with our undeclared voters, our independents having such an influence on our primaries. that is not the same in most of the other states, and don't forget the rules changes on

super tuesday as well. that's not going to play to her favor. >> there are a lot of different rules that really have an impact, and we'll be discussing the path forward moving forward here on the show as well. thank you so much, jennifer horn and robert gibbs. really appreciate the conversation, guys. next, from campaign victory to the courtroom, we'll look ahead at trump's potential testimony in the e. jean carroll case as soon as tomorrow. >> more on trump's packed legal calendar including a collision between a caucus and a major supreme court hearing in just a couple of weeks. you're watching special coverage here on msnbc. weeks. you're watching special coverage here on msnbc. complete nutrition you need... ...without the stuff you don't. so, here's to now. boost.

my frequent heartburn had me taking antacid after antacid all day long but with prilosec otc just one pill a day blocks heartburn for a full 24 hours. for one and done heartburn relief, prilosec otc. one pill a day, 24 hours, zero heartburn.

(bobby) my store and my design business? for owe're exploding.tburn relief, prilosec otc. but my old internet, was not letting me run the show. so, we switched to verizon business internet. they have business grade internet, nationwide. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ )

constant contact's advanced automation lets you send the right message at the right time, every time. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact. helping the small stand tall. here's to getting better with age. here's to beating these two every thursday. help fuel today with boost high protein, complete nutrition you need... ...without the stuff you don't. so, here's to now. boost. here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi

and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today.

welcome back, donald trump getting a break from courtrooms after his new hampshire win, at least for a day. he could be back here in court in new york tomorrow in the second e. jean carroll defamation trial. >> but his political and legal worlds will collide on the 8th of february in nevada gop presidential caucus and the day the supreme court hearings arguments about removing him from the ballot in colorado. >> let's bring in vaughn hillyard joining us from manchester, new hampshire, and also with us former federal prosecutor kristy greenberg and charles coleman. vaughn, as we push forward with this primary calendar, how complicated is this collision with his legal schedule going to get? >> good morning, guys. look, the results last night definitely lightened up the demands of the campaign schedule for him, at least in these

immediate months with confidence from the trump team they are in a strong position here and don't have too much to worry about with nikki haley, they have the ability to really hone in and focus more on some of these legal ends. alina habba, of course, his attorney not only in the civil fraud trial in which we are awaiting a rule from judge engoron by likely early february, but also his attorney in the e. jean carroll defamation suit, she was up on stage last night with donald trump here, and so that is where we have seen very much almost in a way the legal and the campaign working in tandem here. of course we expect donald trump to be back in manhattan at the thursday after, of course, the trial was canceled today as well. donald trump may very well still testify. you said that february 8th is the day of the oral arguments over the 4th amendment disqualification clause and the u.s. supreme court will be hearing from trump's attorneys on february 8th. and of course we're still waiting for the u.s. circuit

court of appeals to make their determination of whether donald trump is granted presidential immunity over the federal election interference charges. of course, if the appeals court affirms the decision of judge chutkan in that, we could then expect the trump team to appeal directly to the u.s. supreme court where there would likely be arguments there as well here. so despite donald trump feeling like he's in a good position politically in this primary, his next big challenge are definitely these legal perils that await him here this spring. >> vaughn hillyard, thank you very much. so trump's team argues that colorado removing his name from the ballot violates his first amendment rights, free speech and free association. charles, what kind of weight do you give that argument? >> i don't think that's his strongest argument with respect to the 14th amendment violation, i think that what we may see is a revisiting of his due process argument, and he's seemed to make that kind of successfully in terms of what he laid out. i don't think the immunity

argument is going anywhere. my colleague may feel free to disagree with me on this one. as far as the due process portion of what that argument could hold up to, i think there may be something there. what i mean by that specifically for our viewers is basically to say what is the process that has to be established in order to ensure that we know that donald trump is guilty of whatever violations of the 14th amendment specifically section 3, that he's being charged with or that keep him off the ballot in colorado. >> and we're going to hear complete arguments on both sides of the coin. on february 8th when this is argued before the supreme court. realistically, do you see the supreme court allowing him to not be on any of the ballots, you know, whether it's colorado, whether it's maine, whether it's, you know, any other individual state or, you know, locality that is challenging his eligibility to be on the ballot right now? >> no, i agree with charles. i don't think the supreme court is going to find that he's disqualified from any of the ballots.

i think it will be a narrow enough holding that it applies to these particular circumstances of the federal complex constitutional question of an individual engaging in insurrection, whether or not the states can address that kind of question, whether they are equipped to do so, but it will be broad enough to apply to all the states so that you're not going to have every state coming in here and having to relitigate this before their primaries. >> and so let's talk about what's happening in court tomorrow here in new york because we expect he will be there. he could take the stand. he has said he wants to testify in this case involving e. jean carroll, who's already brought, you know, a previous trial and won finding him liable for sexual assault against her and defamation. it's worth noting he said he was going to testify the first time and didn't, do you see it different this time around? >> i'm glad you brought that point up. we've seen this movie before.

we know how it ends. donald trump is going to say to his followers, to his acolytes that he's going to take the stand because he wants to portray the strong man image for the voters. at this point it's important to remember that donald trump the defendant and donald trump in the campaign, the candidate the, they're one and the same. they're the same person. he's using the court as a campaign stop, and he's using the campaign as a stop in the court of public opinion. he's sort of blended these things. he is not going to get on the stand. if anything that we saw from last night, for example, from his acceptance speech, if you could call it that, you know, his victory speech, it showed exactly why you don't put donald trump on the stand. he is someone who has a history of not being able to stick to the script. and as an attorney, that is a potential nightmare. so ultimately, we are not going to see this happen. donald trump has said this before, and his attorneys are usually the ones to say this is a terrible idea.

let's walk it back. and for as much as he will often push back on his attorneys, i think he understands this is a mistake he cannot afford to make. >> he did take the stand in other instances including in the closing arguments, that it was actually told all right, enough. >> in his civil fraud trial. >> if trump does take the stand, would he have some kind of restrictions? >> yes, state court is very different than federal court and judge engoron is very different than judge kaplan. judge kaplan is no nonsense. he's not going to ask alina habba to control her client. he's going to control his courtroom. there are a lot of limitations already if he were to testify, what he could testify to. he can't testify to the fact that those statements, the statements that he made defaming her are actually true. he's prohibited from doing that by the judge. they've already been found by a jury to be false and defamatory, so he can't go around and say

she's just motivated by politics. she's just motivated because she wanted to sell a book. all of that is off the table. will he try it if he testifies? of course he will, but i expect when he does, judge kaplan will promptly shoot him down. >> how would that happen? how does a judge shoot someone down like that? >> whatever way they want. the judge will literally interrupt you in the middle of your testimony and instruct you that you are not to continue along this line of whatever it is that you're trying to testify to. and i think it's important to understand that donald trump is not someone who's really used to being cross examined under oath in open court, and that's also another reason why we would likely see him try to avoid being on the stand and testifying despite what he's saying publicly because that's another arena that's not -- we're not talking about a closed-door deposition. we're talking about actual court testimony with a judge there. so there are a number of different mechanisms that a judge can do. he can simply interrupt him and say, mr. trump, stop talking. >> well, he tried to do that earlier when e. jean carroll was on the stand, and as it turned

out, judge kaplan said i may throw you out of the courtroom. so he's already warned him. he's threatened that. >> and trump said i'd love it. >> could be interesting tomorrow. >> indeed it could. >> thank you both so very much. up next, not backing down, nikki haley vowing to stay in the race but does she need to shift her strategy? >> and why the political map is going to get a lot harder in her own home state. you're watching special coverage on msnbc. ching special coverage on msnbc ...without the stuff you don't. so, here's to now. boost. covid-19? i'm not waiting. if it's covid, paxlovid. paxlovid is an oral treatment for adults with mild-to-moderate covid-19 and a high-risk factor for it becoming severe. it does not prevent covid-19. my symptoms are mild now, but i'm not risking it. if it's covid, paxlovid. paxlovid must be taken within the first five days of symptoms, and helps stop the virus from multiplying in your body. taking paxlovid with certain medicines

can lead to serious or life-threatening side effects or affect how it or other medicines work, including hormonal birth control. it's critical to tell your doctor about all the medicines you take because certain tests or changes in their dosage may be needed. tell your doctor if you have kidney or liver problems, hiv-1, are or plan to become pregnant, or breastfeed. don't take paxlovid if you're allergic to nirmatrelvir, ritonavir, or any of its ingredients. serious side effects can include allergic reactions, some severe like anaphylaxis, and liver problems. these are not all the possible side effects so talk to your doctor. if it's covid, paxlovid. ask your doctor today. there's nothing better than a subway series footlong. except when you add on an all new footlong sidekick. we're talking a $2 footlong churro. $3 footlong pretzel and a five dollar footlong cookie. every epic footlong

deserves the perfect sidekick. order one with your favorite subway series sub today. i love your dress. oh thanks! i splurged a little because liberty mutual customized my car insurance and i saved hundreds. that's great. i know, right? i've been telling everyone. baby: liberty. did you hear that? ty just said her first word. can you say “mama”? baby: liberty. can you say “auntie”? baby: liberty. how many people did you tell? only pay for what you need. jingle: ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ baby: ♪ liberty. ♪ my frequent heartburn had me taking antacid after antacid all day long but with prilosec otc just one pill a day blocks heartburn for a full 24 hours. for one and done heartburn relief, prilosec otc.

one pill a day, 24 hours, zero heartburn. you may know adam schiff's work for one and done heartburn relief, prilosec otc. to protect the rule of law, or to build affordable housing, or write california's patients bill of rights. but i know adam through the big brother program. we've been brothers since i was seven.

he stood by my side as i graduated from yale, and i stood by his side when he married eve, the love of his life. i'm a little biased, but take it from adam's little brother. he'll make us all proud as california senator. i'm adam schiff and i approve this message. not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives of banks, big pharma, even top administration officials. katie porter. never taken corporate pac money - never will. leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks” that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message.

today nikki haley heads home to south carolina for a campaign rally. >> but she trails trump in the most recent polls in her home state, the voter makeup there could prove to be maybe more friendly for trump, even though she is the former governor, won there twice. there are major south carolina politicians, though, also backing the former president. >> let's bring in former adviser to republican house speaker john boehner, mara gillaspie. south carolina's electorate looks a lot similar to let's say iowa than to new hampshire's, at least based on who turned out in 2016. according to "politico," more white evangelicals, conservatives, people who identify as republican versus independent, how big of an uphill climb is this for haley? >> it's going to be pretty monumental despite the fact that it is her home state. she said last night on the stage, this is my sweet home state of south carolina and

really projected i think confidence to those who are supporting her, which she needed to do if she's going to stay in the race. but in iowa there was -- again, weather was a factor, but 15% of the electorate that could vote, voted, came out to vote. it's a different kind of caucus system where they have to stick around so in south carolina it's going to be a real test for her. i think that her team's walking away with probably okay with how new hampshire went, feeling that they did fine, but i'm glad that she's staying in honestly. i think it's important just to point out some of these issues that donald trump's going to continue to have and that she's finally doing that i'm glad to hear. republicans need to hear it. there's so many things that we could talk about when it comes to donald trump, but one thing that one of the voters in new hampshire mentioned was his own staff who he had around him, the people who support him, no longer are around him. what does that say about him, that's not leadership. he fired everyone who wasn't a yes man, that's a dictatorship.

i thought that was a really interesting poll about why they chose nikki haley after having voted for donald trump. >> clearly the establishment thinks trump is the guy. that's why we see all the endorsements, one after the other in south carolina, and more broadly, but nikki haley has won in south carolina in the past. she arguably knows this state and the voters there really well, congressman. would you count her out? >> yes. yeah, she's done. i mean, look, donald trump is leading amongst one demographic over and over and over again, and they're called republicans, and there's just no doubt about that. he has consolidated the republican base. what's interesting, though, is that the stats are not looking good for him. so it's ironic, he won two times in a row, and no -- >> what do you mean the stats aren't looking good for him then? >> because he's not winning moderates and independents, and in new hampshire, that's what you saw. nikki haley consolidated these

moderates and independents and in those counties where trump lost to biden in 2020, nikki haley trounced him and nikki haley primary voters in iowa and new hampshire, a dramatic number of them are saying they will not be with trump in the general election. you're seeing this massive divergence between the republican primary base that he has consolidated and that large swath of independent moderate voters that decide a presidential election. >> and mara, nikki haley insists that she has a path forward suggesting maybe some super tuesday states or going after super tuesday, do you see where she has a path going forward? >> one thing i would point to is the issues that voters cited as what their number one reason for voting for one or the other. for the trump voters, immigration was well over 70%. congress is working on legislation to address the border crisis, and republican senators are urging their house counterparts to get on board

saying this is the best chance we'll have to accomplish something. so what happens if they do, which, you know, speaker mike johnson has said he's not really interested in it. let's say they get this done, what does that do ahead of uper tuesday for voters, if they're looking at issues, what does that say to him? >> boehner couldn't get immigration reform done. ryan couldn't get immigration reform done, president obama tried, couldn't get it done. there hasn't been immigration reform since 1986, comprehensive immigration reform. so the odds of something substantial happening aren't very good. >> correct, but the fact that you have republican senators who are all on board with this and actively saying this is the best chance we have, i think that enthusiasm and that support for those who in the house who are frustrated by the chaos that they have in large part caused and see this as an opportunity, especially those in biden leaning states and district, they should want to get on board with this, especially as they continue to talk about immigration and border concerns, if you have a chance to fix

something, how are you going to go back to your constituents and say you didn't try and do anything on it. >> let's talk about nikki haley's path here and how she's messaging the issues and what she's all about trying to define herself to a broader electorate in a new tv ad in south carolina, let's watch. >> biden too old, trump too much chaos. a rematch no one wants. there's a better choice for a better america, her story started right here, america's youngest governor, a conservative republican, and boy, did she deliver. >> it's a great day in south carolina! >> what do you think about that, congressman? >> it's a great ad. it'd be a great ad in a general election. you know, this notion that when someone wins a state in a gubernatorial race that transfers over to success in a presidential, it just isn't there. for instance, as ron desantis having dropped out a florida primary election against donald trump would not have looked good for him. what we are looking at here is

an extremist maga base that is motivated by the politics of grievance and that is donald trump incarnate right now, so that right there looks like an ad for a third-party candidate. that looks like an ad for a democrat. i don't see the salience of that ad. >> you almost seem happy that nikki haley lost in new hampshire, even though i know how strongly you feel against trump. >> i think i would find great joy in beating donald trump as a democrat the second time in a row. you know, donald trump is and the politics that he represents, is incredibly scary. i believe that it is extremist authoritarianism to its core, but on the same time, we cannot doubt the weakness of their politics when it comes to actual mainstream independent, moderate voters. that is why the republican party has not been successful under donald trump's politics, '22, '20, over and over and over again, we're seeing it. so no, i'm not overjoyed to see

where they're at right now. it's frightening, but i do know that they can be beaten in a general election. >> maura gillespie, and former representative, thank you for being with us this morning. in the meantime, a decisive win in new hampshire's democratic primary for president biden even though his name wasn't on the ballot. more than 50,000 voters in the granite state wrote in the president's name when faced with this ballot that didn't include him. first the president set to speak at the uaw conference this afternoon, that's part of his attempt to woo blue collar voters, and we have some new reporting on this. what are we expecting? >> reporter: yeah, that's right, ana, my colleagues, monica alba, phil la bow reporting that the united autoworkers expects to announce an endorsement of president biden as he's speaking there today. this is significant, president biden became the first sitting

president to walk a picket line during those strikes last year. we know how important it is for president biden who considers himself union joe. he prides himself on his support for organized labor in making the economic argument. we've seen the biden campaign as they've begun the year making that significant argument about democracy, talking yesterday in that rally in virginia about abortion rights. we know for this president the economy's also going to be a front and center issue. this is going to be a major endorsement for him to help make the case he is the one on the side of working people. >> let's talk about what happened in new hampshire, he doesn't get any delegates with his win there, but he did call it a historic demonstration of commitment to our democratic process. what does that write-in vote number and his big win show about his support going into the primary season. of course south carolina is the official start for the democrats. >> yeah, when dean phillips, the minnesota congressman filed to challenge president biden on the ballot here and president biden left off the ballot, there were a lot of nervous democrats here

that if phillips were to win, it would be a real blow to the president at a time when a lot of democrats are nervous about his standing. in the end, though, president biden not only won this write-in vote, he got more votes than president obama did in 2012 when he was running for re-election and was on the ballot. listen to my conversation with the chairman of the new hampshire democratic party about what we saw here last night. >> we didn't know what to expect or what was really going to happen, but the local folks on the grass roots rolled up their sleeves, got to work, and they did it, and you know, i think a lot of people from around the country should maybe say maybe the people in the grass roots do know what they're doing. >> reporter: and what buckley is hinting at there is the view of many new hampshire democrats that what they did last night to support the president is exactly why new hampshire should be rewarded with their first in the nation primary, again, when the dnc considers its calendar for 2028. >> thank you for your reporting. up next, breaking news overseas, a russian plane

crashes near ukraine, who is believed to be on board. >> you're watching special live coverage only on msnbc. live coverage only on msnbc when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and prevent, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. at humana, we believe your healthcare should evolve with you, and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. with original medicare you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you'll have to pay a deductible for each. a medicare supplement plan pays for some or all of your original medicare deductibles, but they may have higher monthly premiums and no advantage prescription drug plans include medical coverage, plus

prescription drug coverage. and coverage for dental, vision and hearing. all wrapped up into one convenient plan. plus, there's a cap on your out-of-pocket costs! humana has large networks of doctors, hospitals and specialists across 49 states. so, call or go online today and get your free decision guide. humana - a more human way to healthcare. [coughing] copd isn't pretty. i'm out of breath, and often out of the picture. but this is my story. ( ♪♪ ) and with once-daily trelegy, it can still be beautiful. because with 3 medicines in 1 inhaler, trelegy keeps my airways open for a full 24 hours and prevents future flare-ups. trelegy also improves lung function, so i can breathe more freely all day and night. trelegy won't replace a rescue inhaler

for sudden breathing problems. tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high blood pressure before taking it. do not take trelegy more than prescribed. trelegy may increase your risk of thrush, pneumonia, and osteoporosis. call your doctor if worsened breathing, chest pain, mouth or tongue swelling, problems urinating, vision changes, or eye pain occur. ♪ what a wonderful world ♪ [laughing] ask your doctor about once-daily trelegy for copd because breathing should be beautiful, all day and night.

♪♪ with fastsigns, signage that gets you noticed turns hot lots into homes. ♪♪ fastsigns. make your statement. ♪♪ and turning to breaking news overseas this morning, russia says there were no survivors after a military transport plane carrying 65 ukrainian prisoners of war crashed. you can see plumes of the deadly incident, sending all kinds of smoke into the air. and investigators are now on the

ground at the scene near the ukraine border and the russian city of belgorod. nbc's foreign correspondent molly hunter is following this for us. molly, what do we know? there was a crash, do we know who or what was responsible for it? >> we don't, we should be clear we very very little information independently confirmed that is out there. and largely is russian. we walk you through this, jose, this is very dramatic video and that the only piece of independently verified. our team here as geo-located and verified that plane crashing in the northern border of ukraine in the belgorod region, 25 miles from the city of kharkiv and that fireball. what that video does not say, who was on that plane and what was carried out. from what we heard from the ukrainian side, earlier this morning, russia said it was shot down. they say they have identified two ukrainian missiles on their

radar, jose. and provided no evidence for this. they also mentioned that the plane was carrying 65 p.o.w.s in advance of a prisoner exchange. they have also provided no evidence of that. the foreign ministry is calling it a barbaric act of terrorism which is pretty boiler plate for the russian military as far as when they have cross-border attacks from ukraine. the foreign minister sergey lavrov is speaking in the next half, jose. on the crash site, those are russian investigators. they will not be independent investigators. they will not be allowed to be ukrainian investigators allowed access to this. as far as what we hear from the ukrainians, very little. they are not commenting on the record as far as who or what might be on that plane. we're expecting more details. jose, they are saying there was expected to be a prisoner exchange and that is not

happening. >> molly hunter, appreciate it. the u.s. launched a round of air strikes on three facilities in iraq associated with iranian-linked militias. defense secretary lloyd austin saying the strikes yesterday were in direct response to a series of escalatory attacks in iraq and syria. last week, four u.s. military personnel were injured in a ballistic missile and rocket attack. in total, there have been more than 150 missile strikes directed at u.s. and iraq troops against hamas. >> coming up in the second hour of coverage, what happens next as the center of gravity shifts from new hampshire to nevada. and later, chuck todd, after a short break, don't go anywhere, you're watching special coverage here on msnbc. c but i didn't wait. they told their doctors. and found out they had...

atrial fibrillation. a condition which makes it about five times more likely to have a stroke. if you have one or more of these symptoms irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue or lightheadedness, contact your doctor. this is no time to wait. when i first learned about my dupuytren's contracture, my physician referred me to a hand specialist. and i'm glad he did, because when i took the tabletop test, i couldn't lay my hand flat anymore. the first hand specialist i saw only offered surgery. so, i went to a second hand specialist who also offered nonsurgical options - which felt more right for me. so, what i'd say to other people with dupuytren's contracture is this: don't wait —find a hand specialist trained in nonsurgical options, today. i found mine at findahandspecialist.com.

before planning the big trip you were limping thanks to a bad knee. then, you heard about mako robotic-assisted knee replacement. it starts with a ct scan to pinpoint the problem.

that becomes a personalized, 3d plan to guide your doctor during surgery. mako can help lead to better outcomes, like less pain and shorter recovery times. the lifetime of a knee implant is limited, and revision surgery may be required. individual results and recovery times vary. risks of surgery include pain, infection, heart attack, stroke, death, and other serious risks. ask your doctor for important safety information. [camera shutter] to find a doctor who uses mako visit makocan.com

♪♪