don't use it in public. maybe you've changed it to numbers and letters, you might think this doesn't really apply to me f you're out trolling the bars and find yourself in vulnerable moments, i'm not suggesting you are, you might think i'm not as safe as i necessarily need to be, i'm in these situations. perhaps i should add this extra layer of security. >> fascinating stuff, stephanie gosk, thank you. that's going to do it for us this hour. make sure to join us for "chris jansing reports" every weekday. our coverage continues with katy tur reports right now. ♪♪ good to be with you, i'm katy tur. last night it only took 11 minutes after polls closed for nbc news to call the new hampshire primary for donald trump. on its face, that looks great for the former president, showing once again that he dominates among republicans who

call themselves conservative and will likely dominate his way through the rest of the primaries despite what nikki haley does or does not do. but november 5th, 2024, is not a primary race and a candidate cannot rely on the strength of their base alone, and that is where it is helpful to read between the lines of last night's vote. unlike iowa, which is a lock for the gop, new hampshire's electorate is swingy trump lost moderates to haley, two lost college graduates to haley, and three, lost independents to haley, it is a problem, especially when 68% of independents flat out said they will not vote for him. and 42% of primary voters say they don't think someone convicted of a crime would be fit to be president, if that happens to donald trump.

a reminder, for all we talk about the general election, what we really mean is the general election in six specific states. arizona, nevada, georgia, michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. you see them there. so let us untangle what we know about the voters in those state s and what to watch out for. barring a political miracle, we are now in the general election. joining us from manchester, nbc news correspondent garrett haake and "washington post" senior national political correspondent ashley parker joins us as well, she's also an msnbc political analyst. garrett, day one of the presumed general election, i know donald trump and his team have been looking into these numbers because they have been going after former allies who have pointed them out. let me play kayleigh mcenany on fox last night. >> this was actually a fairly good night for joe biden. when you look at our voter analysis, only 10% said i would

not vote for joe biden if he's the nominee. he won a plurality of voters who said he's too old e a majority of voters who are upset about the gaza war. the divides in the democrat party perhaps aren't as stark as one would think. when you look at the republican party, 7 in 10 nikki haley voters said i would not vote for donald trump. there was a des moines register poll, 43% said, no, i wouldn't vote for trump. if i'm trump, i sit back and i exclusively focus on the general election. i take the posture of a presumptive nominee, i focus on number one, uniting the party, and number two winning the independents which nikki haley won. >> i meant former aide, not former ally. she's still an ally of donald trump. how is the president's team reading these numbers? >> reporter: it's interesting. i've been obsessed with this too. all these voters who say they won't vote for donald trump again led me to ask trump himself about this yesterday.

he kind of blew me off suggesting he doesn't think he needs to win these voters back. then he made what i think is the telling answer, which is basically that joe biden will push these voters back into the republican party at the end of the day. the trump campaign generally feels much the same way about joe biden as democrats feel about donald trump, which is they think his policies, his record will make the other a turnout machine. they think if the economy stays -- the sort of vibes in the economy stay off, if the border remained an unsolved problem, which many trump allies in congress might contribute to it remaining an unaddressed problem, those policies of joe biden will push some of the softer republicans, those right leaning independents who supported nikki haley over the last couple of elections back into the trump camp. it's a problem they'll like to address sooner rather than later, and they're having a hard time doing that while the primary is still technically going on and while the candidates' focus is distracted. the campaign seems more focused on the general. the candidate still can't shake

nikki haley. just look at his social media feed today. >> listen to tim scott who was on cbs earlier this morning talking about making the pitch for donald trump. sounds a lot different than what donald trump himself has been saying about his own candidacy. let's listen to tim scott. >> we should start focusing our attention on the contrast between four years of joe biden versus four years of donald trump. four years of donald trump led to low inflation, low unemployment, low crime, and high enthusiasm. we have the most inclusive economy in my lifetime. we created 7 million new jobs, two out of three of those jobs were minorities and women. >> surrogates are saying that. donald trump, though, is talking about not needing -- what did he say? i get revenge, i don't get even, i get revenge about nikki haley last night. >> yeah. >> reporter: retribution. >> ashley talk to me about this remarkable contrast with being, as you say, such a strong primary candidate and yet such a

seemingly weak general election candidate. >> well, that's exactly right. former president trump does have a vice like grip on the base of the republican party. among republicans, trump does exceedingly well. he won iowa and new hampshire, historically it would be unprecedented for him having taken those two states not to win the party's nomination. but he does not do well as though exit polls you justut up showed with independents. and these, you also showed really it might even come down to as it did last time, three state when is you talk to party officials and campaign officials, it could come down to a dozen or two dozen counties, and when it's margins that small, these independent voters, these moderate voters, these swing voters who he's not doing well with are the ones who matter so critically. >> ashley, which states are you

talking about? which counties? can you name them? >>. >> i will say the states you hear the most are the same ones as 2020, wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania, and i am working on getting a complete list of those counties to watch because i plan to keep a very close -- >> no, it's fine because donald trump's team has gotten so much better over the years at data. they started this effort in 2016 collecting so much data about their voters and then they went on facebook in 2020 as well, and 2016, and just microtargeted these voters. when they start doing that sort of thing, which presumably they will, garrett, when they're talking to that independent that didn't vote for them in 2020, do they have an idea of what their message is going to be? >> reporter: yeah, it's -- jump in a time machine and think about your life in 2019. i mean, the trump campaign is trying to recapture a moment of

the pre-covid trump economy, the sort of pre-2020, you know, summer of protests, summer of, you know, spring of covid, kind everything that ultimately got went off the rails for the last year of the trump administration, they think they can recapture a moment in time where the economy seemed like it was humming and the chaos that often follows trump is at an ebb. whether that is possible to do in 2024 is very much an open question, especially if the economy continues to improve across the course of this year. nobody liked to brag about the stock market when he was president than donald trump. the stock market is higher, unemployment is lower than it was when he left office. those economic facts will be ultimately difficult for the trump campaign to grapple with if that's what we're talking about in the sort of early voting window opens this fall. >> garrett haake, ashley parker, thank you for starting us off. joining us now msnbc political analyst brendan buck, and former

rnc communications director, political organization consultant, doug hie. you've got out there and done this campaigning bf on behalf of presidential candidates. is it possible for donald trump to convince voters or is all the chaos, the court cases, the way that he behaves in public once he's on everybody's screen and conscience full-time, does that make it difficult if not impossible? >> it makes it harder for sure. one of the things you talk about as you're getting to the point of moving past a primary or have mutual fund past a primary is about your voters coming home. democrats and republicans use the same language. when are we going to get those voters to come home? i think one of the challenges for donald trump is that a lot of those voters are saying no way, no how. we're not coming home. he'll get a lot of the voters, but he's not going to get all of them. the question becomes for trump, how does he get those voters to come back at a higher rate than what biden is experiencing with some of the problems he has with

soft democrats as well. it's very easy to say why donald trump can't win, very easy to say why joe biden can't win either. certainly economic perceptions causing a real problem for biden, and ultimately, it's why we see voters are very depressed about this election. they look at donald trump versus joe biden, and they see the resistible force against the movable object, and that's not really good news for either of these campaigns right now. if i could, very quickly, brendan's going to advocate for georgia and tell you about seven or eight counties in georgia. i'd say don't forget north carolina. it was the closest state joe biden lost. i have a whole list of counties we can go through if you want to do that. >> so let's -- you mentioned the counties, you mentioned north carolina, let us put u on the screen once again the stas that donald trump lost and the ters that he lost. so it's 150,000 votes in michigan, and he lost black voters, he lost mod rads, college graduates, non-white college graduates.

the issue, racia equality, coronavirus pandemic, and health care policy. when you go through the rest of the states, they kind of look a lot like this. the same type of voters the same types of issues. what do you see moving there, brendan? >> yeah, i me, look, georgia a great example tuly, thank you, doug a place with a very unkind to donald trump over the years, but polling is showing that donald trump's actually doing quite well in georgia now. the obvious big difference four years later is that joe biden has to run on his recdn the same way donald trump had to previously. we can talk about the vulnerabilities that trump has and they are many and it's a real question of any independents are going to be able to back him, and i have to laugh when i hear kayleigh mcenany talking about donald trump running a campaign for the independents. i don't know if that's possible with this person, but joe biden has a lot of problems with independents as well. there are a lot of people who are very unhappy with the

direction of the country and the economy, and that showed up over and over again. one of the biggest problems for him is his age, and there's really nothing he can do about that. he's only going to get older. this is not just a one-sided issue. we're going to have a campaign where both sides are going to be playing for independents. i think joe biden is more tailor made to campaigning towards them. >> you're jumping ahead, i was going to go there. i wonder if the issue for president biden right now is more than just the independents but also the young progressive voters who don't agree with him on what's happening in fwaz, nots to mention minority voters who might not agree with him on a subject like immigration, which we're going to talk about later in the show with some black democrats in chicago who say that the way chicago has been handling migration and the way the democrats in general have been handling migration has been infuriating them because it feels like they're leaving out the minority communities which have long advocated for many of the same benefits that are going

to the migrants and not going to them. that's a conversation we're having later in the hour. when you take a matchup between these two men who are known quantities, you're talking about focusing on key counties. explain to me north carolina and what's going to be at play there. >> well, you've got the dynamic of who are the voters that biden is targeting versus who trump is targeting. what we saw, it's one of the reasons that north carolina was the closest state that biden lost, and by the way, it was the second closest state when obama won it in 2008 and lost it in 2012. suburban voters, those voters that the biden campaign was trying to talk to yesterday, in and outside of wake county, johnson county, lee county, around the raleigh area, mecklenburg county in charlotte, ka bare ras county, there are a lot of suburban voters there that are very troubled with the economy but also don't like donald trump, and they don't know where they're going to go with this direction yet. and polling shows

consistently -- and look, we can argue over how correct an individual poll is versus another, but the real trends here say that there are a lot of voters that are up for grabs that previously voted for the other candidate. it makes both campaigns put themselves in a nervous position. >> so the democrats are heavily relying on two things, one hoping that the anti-trump sentiment is as strong as it was in 2020 in 2024 again. they're also relying on abortion being an issue, and looking ahead to the end of this supreme court term when they might rule on mifepristone, that flooding it back into the conscience of americans again, is it risky or is it reliable to rely on abortion as a motivating issue? >> so i think the best way to look at this is the last midterm election. joe biden was really unpopular, probably more unpopular going into the last midterm election, but democrats significantly outperformed on the backs of the

issue of abortion. i think there's a very good chance that joe biden could have a very good night on november 5th in spite of himself. he may be able it use some of these issues as a way to rally people that doesn't have anything to do with joe biden. it has a lot more to do with donald trump. it's very possible that they're able to do it. they've had success doing that recently. i think joe biden in that campaign have awoken to that issue of late. we saw him railing on this issue at his appearance yesterday, which i think is actually a notable change. the last state of the union address that joe biden did, he barely talked about this issue. he gave it main 30 seconds. it shocked me. now he's making it a center piece. i think that's really smart. >> we'll see what he does for this state of the union. gentlemen, thank you very much. doming up, what caused the arizona gop chair to resign all of a sudden today, just a moment ago in fact. hint, it's because of something he probably would not have said if he knew he was on tape. plus, who was getting in the way of immigration talks in congress and why this person is

muddying things up not in the house but the normally more conciliatory senate. and what two black demrats in chicago say is infuriating them about the migrant crisis, and why they're telling president biden he better start listening. we're back in 60 seconds. 60 secs e nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. students... students of any age, from anywhere.

using our technology to power different ways of learning. so when minds grow, opportunities follow. ♪ well, that did not take long. it's only been a couple of hours, if that, since audio dropped of the arizona gop chair trying to bribe kari lake to stay out of the arizona senate race and politics altogether for at least two years, but now that chairman jef dewitt has resigned, just a moment ago in fact. take a listen and you'll see why. >> there are very powerful people that want to keep you out. heydo. >> but they're willing to put their money where their mouth i in a big way,o this conversation never happened.

>> is there a number in w -- >> i can be bought? >> not be bought >> that's what it's about. >> to take a por a couple of years. >> no. >> and then go right back to what you're doing. >> huh-uh, no, 10 million, 20 million, no, no, a billion? no. this is not about money. this is about our country. >> joining us now somewhere in connecticut is nbc news correspondent vaughn hillyard, vaughn, thanks for joining us. this is amazing. this conversation never happened. i think when you say that, you better be sure that the person on the other side is not recording. >> reporter: you got to make sure the person's not recording, i got to tell you this is quite a ride through connecticut. this is all happening in realtime here, katy. the tape speaks for itself, jeff dewitt the chairman says it was deceptively edited and just a few moments ago, he did, in fact, resign from his position. he said in part, quote, in a

lengthy statement announcing his resignation that kari lake's team threatened to release a new, more damaging recording if he didn't resign suggesting that her campaign all but blackmailed him into this resignation here this afternoon. dewitt also asserted that the secret recording, quote, confirms a disturbing tendency to exploit private interactions for personal gain going on to openly suggest that kari lake recorded her conversations with former president donald trump. this is all coming to a head before the arizona fwop's major annual meeting this saturday. donald trump is flying to arizona friday night to speak at what they're calling the az gop fest. all of this indicates this is anything but an az gop fest that we should be anticipating here this weekend. now just literally in the last two minutes, kari lake's team has now just responded and denied that they all but black

mailed jeff dewitt into resigning. this is all playing out literally minute by minute at this point. in arizona, a key critical state not only in the presidential race but also in the senate race, they have an infrastructure that is deeply in question right now, and this comes just one week after the michigan gop voted to oust their chairwoman, and so for the republican party right now in two key battleground states, you could say that their state parties are in disarray at really critical times. >> did she release the tape? has her campaign confirmed they released this tape? >> reporter: yes, this was a tape that she, in fact, that was recorded and you can hear it was clearly that -- >> okay. so jeff dewitt, is he implying that she has potentially damaging recordings of donald trump and might be using it to her advantage? is that what he's implying? >> he is suggesting that private

interactions because of the release of this tape, in which he says he did not know he was being recorded, suggests that other private interactions were being recorded. he implies that in his statement and he says that he does not know what this other damaging recording that the kari lake team had against him was, saying he was not aware he was ever being recorded. her team is denying they actually blackmailed him. this is a lot that is happening, and i want to note i was with kari lake last night in new hampshire, she was there the night of his iowa caucus event and last night, i was the one who was talking with kari lake, when i asked her whether she believed jeff dewitt should resign, clearly she was being offered a job of some sort and a salary of some sort to not run for the u.s. senate.

she decided to go through with running for the u.s. senate, seems to be in a dominant position. there is one other candidate, mark lamb who is in the senate race. polling has indicated she's in a strong position. this could open serious questions ahead of next august's primary about whether kari lake is somebody who the activists in the party will get behind, if they question whether these private recordings could potentially out other conversations. there's a lot of dynamics here at play, and jeff dewitt, ka it, y, you'll recall was the chief financial officer for the 2016 trump campaign out of new york, and he was actually a nasa administrator during the trump administration, so he was a long-time trump ally as well. this is kind of maga world coming to a head in realtime in . >> really interesting, thank you very much. nikki haley is staying in the race and no one is more surprised than herpponent donald trump who spent a good part of his victory speech last night railing against haley and questioning everything from her fashion choices to her prospects

in south carolina where a number of her one-time state allies have now endorsed him over her. joining us from charleston, south carolina, nbc news correspondent ali vitali. what's their plan? >> reporter: the plan is to stick around, and at least through super tuesday, which is early march at this point, but they're planning first to go through south carolin. we know that nikki haley and her team remind that she was a twice elected official here. you and i probably remember viscerally being in a ballroom in greenville, south carolina, the night of the 2016 south carolina primary. i think it was the moment for many of us as we watched trump coalesce the republican party under his wing, and we've only seen him continue to bend it to his will since then. it's why trump is chagrinned by the fact that haley is staying

in. there's two ways you can look at the rationale from the haley team. she's gotten closer to trump than any of these other rivals. they wanted this to be a binary. on the other hand you're seeing republicans including the former president and many of his allies saying hey, look, we're winning decisive victories time to fall in line, it's clear nikki haley is not ready to do that. >> i remember that, i remember being in the belly of a warship outside of charleston where you are right now on the day of the muslim ban when we thought donald trump's candidacy could potentially be over and the crowds there were enthusiastically behind him just as angry as he was when he announced his proposed muslim ban. ali vitali, thank you very much. they're progressive democrats but on this one issue they say the democratic party and president biden are failing them. what it could do to party unity this november. and who is messing with the senate's border deal? border del

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immigration, donald trump, and ukraine. joining us now "punchbowl news" cofounder jake sherman. explain this to me, jake. >> reporter: katie, here's the problem that senate republicans and quite frankly, senate democrats will face in the next couple of weeks and house republicans, which is ukraine aid, aid for our embattled ally in a war with one of our strategic adversaadversaries, r is being tied to a border bill. donald trump has already dumped on that border bill. so the idea that aid to ukraine could legitimately be taken down by donald trump is no longer a

fantasy. it seems to be a likelihood at this point. this is causing a lot of consternation in the senate republican ranks where mitch mcconnell, has been the biggest booster for ukraine aid over the last year or so and has gone to the senate floor nearly daily saying that congress needs to pass a ukraine aid package in the immediate future like now, in the next couple of days. that's not going to happen. senate republicans are meeting down the hall right now in a special conference meeting about ukraine aid, the future of ukraine aid, and there's a significant concern that as we get closer to donald trump officially getting the nomination in the next couple of weeks or months that he will have again, as if he didn't already, outsized control oaf the republican policy agenda, and that will sink a chance tr a border deal under joe biden and will ukraine under joe biden. >> pramila jayapal was talking about immigration, and she says democrats are missing the mark

on it. but she says there is a problem, i'll let her explain it. >> wenow what the solutions are. the republicans have refused to donything that helps. they won't give money. they don't vote for border money, even if it's to process people and have an orderly process or to secure the border with the things that border agents tell us they want, which is surveillance too old r tools and drones and things like that. >> she's advocating that indicates get rid of the filibuster to get this done to tell the american public they're addressing immigration. >> she's shouting into an empty room. the senate democrats don't have the vote to get rid of the filibuster, they haven't for the last couple of years. i'll say this, on top of this, it's interesting when democrats go to the border, they hear one thing from border agents. when republicans go to the borders they hear a completely different thing. republicans say border patrol agents tell us meaning the

lawmakers, that they need to shut down the flow from mexico. the trump era policy. so it's all about what you want to hear. so listen, republicans and democrats on the senate side are engaged in what seems to be a serious negotiation with serious lawmakers, james lankford, chris murphy, and kyrsten sinema over this border bill, and the question is will the far right, the hard line conservatives tank it. that's the ultimate question because they are right now in a serious negotiation that appears to be baring fruit. we'll have to see when it comes out. i think jayapal herself is missing the mark a little bit. she's right that republicans continue to vote against these things, but at least on the senate side there are people who want to get something done. still ahead, what's up with the d.c. appeals court, lisa rubin is here to help us

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in the two years since texas governor greg abbott began sending migrants to sanctuary cities, 608 of the buses he has chartered ended up in chicago. the influx has created crisis level conditions, overwhelming the city's 28 shelters and

forcing officials to turn to unused warehouses and the like to house them including potentially a park in chicago's austin neighborhood, a working class community where nearly 28% of the residents live below the poverty line. it's where residents like cotta truss say they have been begging for the exact same resources. >> democratic party, we're watching you. we are disappointed. we are angry. we are offended, and we feel like we're being mistreated, misused, and disrespected. we will not continue to be disrespected by the democratic party. as i said yesterday and i'll say today and tomorrow, if you're an independent candidate, green party candidate, republican

candidate, now is your time in this city. >> joining us now the chicago resident you just heard there, it's really great to have you. tell me what you are frustrated about specifically. >> well, one of the things that i am frustrated about is the fact that the biden administration is not handling the migrant crisis in a way that it is good for them or the cities that the migrants are being sent to. i certainly don't want to demonize the migrants because not a lot of what is happening is their fault. i think that our mayor, our governor, as well as president biden has to step in and make some changes to what is happening right now. right now it seems as if our borders are just open and that people are freely coming in and that there are no laws that are being followed in terms of

immigration, so what is happening here in chicago is that we are seeing our city spend up to $48 billion a month to house and take care of migrants. now, when you talk about the black communities here in the city of chicago and you talk about the years of disinvestment in our communities, in our schools, and all around us, and you see this amount of money being spent to people who have come from outside of this concern, that is a problem for us and i think that one of the reasons i got involved in this is because when you talk about coming into the community, a community that has already been blighted and disinvested in, and talking about one of the major crown jewels of the -- you're talking about taking it away from the community to house migrants at a time where we're seeing increased crime because our children don't have things to do.

they don't have jobs, and we're seeing this money being spent, and it's being spent on other people and communities that could really benefit for that money. here in chicago, i was sitting in a meeting with the board of education, and they talked about a $391 million shortfall that they're going to have this upcoming year, and when you look at the money that has been spent on the migrants, you know, we have a problem with that. and i heard someone say earlier that here in chicago, we're talking about turning away from the democratic party, i have already turned. i will be voting republican this time around, and i don't think that that's just a sentiment of cata truss. i think that's the sentiment of a lot of people around the entire united states. and basically, you know, for years the democratic party has taken our vote for granted, and they feel that they can continue to ignore us, not support us,

not give us the things that we need in our community, and we're going to continue to vote for them. we are not our grandparents. we're different, and when we see that you don't have our best interests at heart, we're going to go elsewhere. i'm going elsewhere. >> cata, that's a big statement, if president biden were listening right now or the white house was listening, what would you tell them to try to get your vote back? >> i don't know that they can get my vote back. >> why not? >> i think that one of the biggest problems with this whole situation is when this started, i called my congressman. i called my representative, i called my state senator. i called our county commission er, and i tried to sit down to meet with them. i even called our mayor, and i wanted to sit down and talk with them to find out if there was just something i was missing, if

there was some information that i needed in order to make me sit comfortably with what was happening. and nobody had time to sit down with me. nobody had time to meet with me to discuss this issue. and so as important as this issue has become to the black community and the fact that our mayor who i know, whom i supported, whom i donated money to his campaign has not bothered to pick up the phone and to call me and to talk about to me about what's happening is a slap in the face for me. no, i cannot support people who will not support me in my community. >> cata truss, thank you very much for joining us. as i said at the top, a flashing red light for democrats come this november. cata, thank you. >> you're welcome. coming up, is donald trump immune from prosecution? a status update on the case that could end nearly all of the cases against the former president. nst the former president.

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the kremlin says ukraine shot down a plane killing everyone on board, including 65 ukrainian prisoners of war. ukraine has not confirmed nor denied the accusation, and nbc news has not independentl verified who was on board or what caused the crash. russia says the flight was on its way to the southern region of belgorod for a prisoner exchange. both countries have regularly carried out such exchanges id

the fighting. and just after midnight th morning, the u.s. military says it concted air strikes in iraq against three facilities used by iranian-backed militias. secretary of defense austin says the strikes are, quote, in direct response to a series of escalatory attacks against the u.s. and that they are, quote, necessary and proportionate. joining us now from tel aviv is nbc news foreign correspondent raf sanchez. i imagine the iraqis are not calling this necessary and proportionate? >> reporter: they are not, katy. they are furious. iraq for more than 20 years since the american invasion in 2003 has been a battleground for other people's wars, and for the last 15 years or so, it has been the scene of this running battle between the united states and iranian-backed proxies, and that has intensified since the start of the war in gaza. we have seen more and more attacks on american bases including the al asad air base

in western iraq over the weekend. a number of service personnel being assessed for potential traumatic brain injury. today the u.s. carrying out these strikes. they appear to be two in the west, one south of baghdad, and for the iraqis, as you can imagine, to have american war planes carrying out strikes inside of their territory without coordination is infuriating, and we have a statement from the iraqi military released earlier. i'll read you just a little bit of it. the iraqi military spokesman says this unacceptable act undermines years of cooperation, blatantly violates iraq's sovereignty and contributes to an on to call opt the international community to basically reign in on the united states when he talks about jrnd mining cooperation. they fought together against isis. they liberated the city of mosul

from control of that terrorist group. they basically destroyed significant parts of the city in the process. but the iraqi military has been a key partner for the united states in taking these strikes, apparently, there's a real risk of that relationship fraying. >> it's a strategic risk for the united states. raf sanchez, thank you very much. coing up next, they said they would make a decision quickly, but we're still waiting. what's delaying the circuit court's ruling on donald trump ice immunity. immunity blocks heartburn for a full 24 hours. for one and done heartburn relief, prilosec otc. one pill a day, 24 hours, zero heartburn. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner

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although they agree to decide eminently, former president trump, jack smith and everybody else is still waiting on a ruling from the d.c. circuit court of appeals on whether donald trump is immune from charges related to his effort to subvert the 2020 election. the three-judge panel appeared skeptical of that claim, but it's unclear what they will decide, what scope it will have, or most importantly, when their decision will be issued. so what gives? joining us now is legal analyst lisa rubin. >> what gives? >> 15 days feels like a lifetime to you and me it does not for the court of appeals. this is the same court that took

36 days just to reject an appeal of the gag order decision that three of their colleagues reached. so quickly for them is not quickly for us. no matter how much we beg and plead. >> so when they are behind closed doors and considering these arguments, walk me through what they are doing. from the outside in, you'd say you read the briefs and you look at the briefs and think to yourself, this one makes sense and this one does not. >> so i think all three judges who heard the oral argument believe that president trump's claim to presidential immunity doesn't have a sound basis. but how they get there might differ. what's going on behind the scenes now is that they are trading drafts of opinions, but they are really hoping that they can release an unanimous opinion that means it's not signed by any one judge, but rather the three-judge panel as whole says this is our opinion. that's what we saw the 11th circuit do when i they rejected the special master in the

mar-a-lago case. it would behoove this panel to do the same and show that same unanimousty. >> explain the degrees. >> the judge's ruling sayst there's no presidential immunity, period, full stop. but in the civil context, a president can have immunity for civil claims if they are related to his official duties, even to what they call the outer perimeter of those duties. in the oral argument, the judge was really struggling with do we make the rule in the criminal context parallel to that in the civil context. and if so, that's a dangerous road to go down because then someone, namely the judge, will have to parse the indictment and determine which allegations look to be in the president's official capacity versus his campaign or personal capacity. >> say they rule that donald trump is not immune it and the case can go forward. does it start again immediately? >> it starts again immediately, unless they stay it or the

supreme court offers a stay. one potential thing they could do is say the case will restart immediately and reman for further proceedings, unless by x date the former president seeks an revisiting of this. >> which he will definitely do. they are going to make a ruling. it's going to go to the supreme court regardless. when do we expect a trial to get underway if the supreme court does not rule that the president is immune? is it going to happen before the election? >> i think it still could happen. whether it does depends in part whether the supreme court takes the case. they don't have are to take it. >> they could let the appellate court stand. >> the judge already is signaling signals that march 4th is not going to happen. she scheduled a trial for a january 6th defendant to begin on april 2nd. that's as admission as any that the march 4th trial date isn't

going to hold if she can try somebody else on april 27bd. >> if this happens in the middle of the summer, you have the republican convention in august. there's a possibility that donald trump might be on trial during that convention. could he go to the convention or would he have to go to the trial? the judge said his political campaign is secondary to this legal case ands it's unclear if she would let him go to that instead of being in court. >> that will be up to her whether she wants to make that decision. she's hoping it doesn't come the to that. she can try him in either late april or early may. >> the timeline gets tricky going forward. thank you. we're all watching the d.c. court of appeals. that's it for me today. "deadline: white house" starts right now. hey, everyone. it's 4:00 here in washington, d.c. there's a good chance that we may look back at last night as the beginning of the end of the republican presidential primary. the start of a