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>> good afternoon, it is saturday, february the 3rd. i am ali velshi. we continue to follow the situation in the middle east where the israel and gaza war continues its steady creep outward, threatening to explode into a widespread regional conflict or worse at any moment. within the last hour, u.s. central command announced a round of strikes, targeting six houthi anti ship cruise missiles preparing to launch among ships in the red sea. this is the latest in the series of strikes that the united states has conducted against the houthi forces who have been targeting vessels, commercial and military, that are sailing among the red sea toward or from the -- to the crossing in egypt. it is related, but separate from the campaign against iranian-backed proxy forces which are operating in the region, and there are iranian antlers operating alongside them. that started on friday. the biden says that friday

strikes against these groups on u.s. troops in the region since the october 7th attack on israel. that includes last sunday's deadly attack on tower 22. it is a u.s. base that is in the extreme northeastern corner of jordan right near the border with iraq and syria. more than 30 u.s. speakers were wounded kennedy sanders was promoted to sergeant, and 46 year old william rivers, and 23 year old brianna moffatt who is also posthumouslydrone

ammunition storage sites and supply chain facilities. and they were used by iran's islamic revolutionary guard guard corps, the -- and the militant proxy groups that they sponsor. they were directly linked, according to u.s. officials, to the attacks against u.s. forces. and as i mentioned, there has been a sizeable increase in the number of attacks against u.s. forces by iranian-backed militants -- while iran publicly states that it doesn't want a war with the united states, it increasingly appears to be playing out in a proxy battle with the united states staged outside of iran, using a loosely associated alliance that iran has cultivated over several years. which is called the access of resistance. it's a group which has grown stronger since the american withdrawal from the iran

nuclear deal in 2018. and it is a group that has grown more aggressive since october 7th. the access of resistance consist of groups that are trained, funded, supplied, and supported by iran. and includes both large forces like hezbollah, hamas, and the houthis, and smaller militias like islamic resistance in iraq, which was responsible for sunday's deadly attack. filled with groups whose ideologies do not historically align with one another, but which have been unified under an umbrella against the united states. and they seem intent on drawing america into another war in the middle east, and potentially beyond. and, in a statement potentially previewing things to come following friday's strikes, president biden -- said quote, our response began today. it will continue at times and places of our choosing. joining me now are two of our reporters in the region, nbc news chief international correspondent keir simmons in -- iraq, and nbc news foreign

correspondent matt bradley in tel aviv. -- let's start with you, what is the latest from the region, and these new strikes that we are seeing, against the houthis. >> yeah, i think the houthi strikes, they are now something that we have come to expect, which is notable in itself, isn't it, just to think about the fact that it was not that long ago that we had those strikes against the houthis, and we weren't clear whether it was a one-off or whether it would continue. although even, then you are asking a lot of questions about the fact that it wouldn't be able to be a one-off. and now, we can talk about targeting the houthi missiles, and -- according to the u.s. were being prepared to be launched. and that is just a kind of a rhythm now. so that is somewhat sobering, when it comes to thinking about the strikes that we had last night. and i think this now, this 12 hours or so since those strikes, we are now just at

midnight here in the region, and it is roundabout now -- 12 hours, 24 hours ago, that we had this campaign, the beginning of this campaign. it was beginning to be sort of unraveling the rhetoric from the reality. so we've had condemnation from the iranians, but not a threat to respond. we do have have those iranian- backed militias saying that they will continue with their campaign, and calling on the u.s. to be pushed out of iraq. and the iraqi government, with a blistering complaint, saying that this was violating its sovereignty, and pushing iraq to the edge of the abyss. but i will tell you this, we are getting no regional reports -- through that around 40 people were killed in eastern syria and -- in in iraq, as a result of these strikes. but i would just say, this there are others here who are looking at the pictures of the broken and smashed buildings from these strikes, and

suggesting on social, media local social media, suggesting that actually this wasn't, that most of those who might have been hit have actually been able to leave, because it was so largely signaled, that this was more optics than reality. of course, the biden administration would push very heavily against that, saying that this is a powerful message, to tehran, whilst not going inside of iraq, trying to -- between on the one hand, not having this escalate into a regional war. and on the other hand trying to move the needle with the iranians. but we do know of course that the iranians -- has been this way. and you suggested in your opening, for a long time, has been to try to push the u.s. out of this region, put pressure on israel. i don't think tonight is any sign that these strikes, and we are waiting for potentially more, at least that's what's done signal by the biden administration. but so far these strikes are going to shift anything strategically for the iranians. >> this is an important

consideration. let's talk about that, because everybody i have talked to about this says two things. one is that this is inextricably linked to the war in gaza. and the last time there was a cessation of hostilities between israel and hamas, the guns everywhere went quiet. so we are in the days after a proposal has been floated, matt, by the cia, by mossad, by the qataris and by the egyptians, about a hostage release and a cessation of violence. how does everything that has gone on the last 24 hours affect the fact that those negotiations, for better or for worse, are still alive? >> yeah i mean, i wish i knew. and i wish i could tell you, ali. but we are talking about, as i mentioned, we are talking all of these different elements. and when we talk about these proxies in the so-called access of resistance as you just very well laid out, we are talking about proxies. and this is something that, when i spoke with diplomat, when i spoke with leaders of

militant groups. and basically people on the street. everywhere throughout this region, they all say these are proxies for the iranian regime, but they are not puppets. so there is a difference. these people, they benefit from iranian -- . but at the same time, they don't necessarily do iran's bidding. because while they do answer to tehran on some level. and again, we are talking about hezbollah and nevin -- to houthis in yemen, the -- position front in iraq, and other groups in syria. and even the regime of bashar al-assad in syria. these groups, they answered to tehran. but at the same time, they have their own constituencies that they have to answer to. they have to turn around and be politicians. they have to govern, especially when we are talking about something like hezbollah, or i'm speaking to you from southern lebanon, from early in the crisis, into mid november. we are talking about a major outfit, that had had the kind of leading role in the resistance against israel, and the pro palestinian force.

now, they really don't have that position. it's been usurped by the houthis in yemen. so all of these groups, they can benefit, and they can sort of, they can sort of be damaged by their iranian influence. in terms of the hezbollah and lebanon, they are not necessarily going to benefit by dragging the lebanese people into war. the lebanese people probably never forgive hezbollah for doing that. so we are talking all of these different groups, and they are swirling around the middle east. when we talk about these reprisal attacks by the united states, the big elephant in the room that is missing here is that we are not seeing them attack iran specifically. we are not seeing them launch into the iranian mainland, or into iranian targets at sea. so this means that they are avoiding any escalation by targeting iran specifically. and they are kind of letting these groups operate on their own, which in reality, they kind of do. even though as i said, they do benefit from iranian -- from training, and from political

cover from tehran. so it really is quite a complicated story, region wide. and i think that this is the question that we have been seeing everybody huddling in the pentagon trying to decide what is the connective tissue between these different groups. and iran, we have been seen here in tel aviv, i think in the ministry of defense people trying to decide whether or not they should be aiming against iran or whether or not they should just be targeting these groups specifically, and individually, as individual people, individual units that are answering to their own constituencies as they might in the gaza strip for hamas, hezbollah, lebanon, the houthis in yemen. the iranians have set this up in such a way that they can always claim that they are not part of it. they can always back away and say that we were not the ones who pulled the trigger. they are proxies, and that is kind of a brilliant move, when it comes to designing this axis of resistance. and this was all done by the iranian revolutionary guard corps, which is one of the main

targets that the u.s. hit in all of these different places. the iranian revolutionary guard corps has been an international force that arranges all of these proxy groups, brings them all within iran's orbit, and this is the first time in history since we have seen the formation of this sort of acts of resistance, that we have seen all of these groups act in some sort of -- . each of them, firing potshots at israeli and american targets, and in the case of the houthis, international shipping in the sea, in the red sea and the gulf of aden. so, this is a really interesting moment. and by shooting at, them by targeting them, the u.s., and to a lesser extent israel, has kind of forced them out into the open. we can now analyze and see exactly how connected they are to the iranians. because these attacks are forcing them to scatter, and expose those connections. >> -- you know, matt brings up all of the complexities in drawing lines between these various groups and their

motivations, and iran. it is actually even complicated where you are in iraq, which is technically an ally of the united states. and, an ally of iran. >> that's right. and that is one of the many calculations the biden administration will have had to have made. very very difficult it is. i think the point that matt was making at the end of his comments there, are really really important and fascinating. because if you just turn this whole thing on its head, if you like, it is possible to view it. and this is i think with mac was getting out. it is possible to view this as actually quite uncomfortable for iran. that effectively, we are talking about iran because of the fact that you have the houthis targeting commercial shipping, if you have these iranian-backed militia groups here that are targeting u.s. forces, that that is not a proxy anymore. and that's not a shadow war

anymore. in quite the way that iran has built. and i think that the risk for -- is that they really are finding themselves in the spotlight. and in some ways, potentially that may be more important of a calculation for tehran then actually any kind of military action. unless of course it was military action that really confronted iran in a way that america never has. we should just remember, when we are assessing these strikes that we have seen in the past 24 hours, and we may see more. we should just remember that no american president has ever targeted iran inside of its internationally recognized borders. president reagan targeted iran's navy, a different era by the way. it was broken by them, ironically after a war with iraq. but that president reagan did that, but no president, no matter what politicians call for, no president has ever taken that kind of action. and it is worth just also remembering, when you listen to

some of the political rhetoric, that the, risk the real risk of action like that would be a full scale conflict. >> 100 percent. >> what's happening right now is, it is eloquently pointed out as mapped, it it is like the light is being switched on in the region. and i think for many americans, and i believe around the world, it would be quite striking to realize the scale of iran's reach. i have been saying that today. and that may have a political impact in and of itself. i mean in the end, the israelis have been saying again and again that they are deep deep concern is iran's reach in syria, right up to their border. that, for example, analysts say iran has military, a military industrial complex. in tandem with the syrians in syria, so that they can export weapons to hezbollah in lebanon. so these things are beginning to beat spoken about, and be talked about, maybe that's going to have an impact on u.s.

policy. but ultimately again, one of the issues here is that you have to say, it over decades, and certainly over years, iran has had a strategy to push america out of the, region put pressure on israel. u.s. strategy, seen from, here has seemed to flip-flop, can't decide whether it wants to negotiate or confront iran. and more tactical and strategic, honestly. isn't it ironic, just to wrap up here. isn't it ironic, i'm standing in iraq, where america fought i.s.i.s.. and now you have iranian-backed proxy groups saying to us well, thanks very much for helping us fight i.s.i.s., but now we want you to leave? >> there is a lot of complexity to this, which some of the tweets and comments from american politicians belies. so i am grateful that the two of you can expose some of the intricacies and texture in this conversation. we will be talking to you both constantly, over the next few days. keir simmons is -- in iraq, matt bradley is in tel aviv, israel. we are take a quick break, but our coverage continues. we'll be right. back but

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joining me now is karen greenberg, the founder and director for the university center on national security, and energy or -- of the morning brief. and colin clark, director and researcher of the -- and associate fellow for the international center for counterterrorism at the hague. good afternoon to both of you. karen, you heard some of my conversation with matt and keir, and largely that's to underscore the fact that this is far more complex than some would have you believe. these strikes, and counter strikes in the region. i think the first thing i want to start with is something that -- implied. which is that here in the united states, there are some politicians who, in the aftermath of last sunday's attack in tower 22 that killed three u.s. service members, called for the bombing of tehran, the bombing of iraq, the striking of iraq. explain to me your sense of why

that is a substantial escalation over what we have seen the last 24 hours? >> i mean, i think it is the difference between, do you want to be known to be at war? or are you trnegotiate steps that will keep you shy of being obviously at war? i think the motivation is very much political, within the context of what is going on in that this country. i think that it is very dangerous to be talking about those kinds of attacks, that would be within iran. and, i don't think it is going to happen. i think the biden administration has been very clear here that they want to keep as low of a profile as is possible. and at the same time, make it clear that americans cannot be attacked, and american facilities cannot be attacked. it is a very fine line, it is easy for it to get unbalanced. but i think that is what is happening. i think the leaders in this country that are calling for more, are really not

anticipating actually what the fallout would be, to take this to a stage of closer and closer to war. and i understand the frustrations. i think there is a lot of frustrations about the region, and what is going on, this quiet diplomacy of the biden administration. but, i think that is where the motivations fall. >> -- there is all sorts of space for miscalculation here. to the point that karen makes, i think the biden administration is trying to walk a fine line here. but b one bomber flew several thousand miles to participate in this thing. this could get very bad very fast. what does success in theory look like here, in terms of the message that america is trying to send to these groups in syria and iraq, and possibly yemen, and something that becomes more dangerous? >> great question. i think success for the biden administration, the response is

to at least reestablish the turns, to get to a point where the houthis and other members of the access of resistance. and let's remember, this is all part of iran's unity of front strategy. this is the brain child of qasem soleimani, the former commander of the goods force. success, at least the temporary pause in hostilities or strikes from various members of the access of resistance. which hopefully opens the door, and gives a little bit of breathing room for diplomacy, right. and this is where the kind of multiple trips of secretary blinken come into play. we can't solve this conflict and less there is a solution to what is going on in gaza. they are inextricably linked, you mentioned it yourself. and we can't separate these and look at these as parallel tracks, they are one and the same. >> so karen, that is the other side of the coin. someone needs to -- somewhere. and some have made the point that during the last hostage deal between israel and hamas,

the guns there were quiet, and all of the other guns were quieted to. i mean the houthis have been as clear is that, if you all stop fighting, we will stop shooting. >> right, i think that, and that is why they want to return -- to we just need a timeout everywhere. but i just want to point out a couple of things that are going on that make this particularly complicated. besides what has been -- . which is that you are dealing with, we call them proxies, but this is not new. proxies have been, the use of proxies by iran and others have been going on -- as -- alluded to for decades now. and what's happened also on the heels of that, is this lack of distinction between state and non state actors. and what you have is now a coalition, a network of non state actors, which include both sunni and shia groups, and they are combined in a way that makes it hard to control them diplomatically, within the

structures that we have, for geopolitical negotiations, because our structures are so based on state entities, in dealing with state entities. and so, when we talk about arranging some kind of peace deal, or some kind of pause in the violence and the fighting that is going on, both for gaza and for the conflict with iran, what you think about, who is at the table, making this deal? the united states, israel, qatar, and egypt. and the question is, how, and where, do these proxy actors and these non state actors become subject to part of, and accountable to, the negotiations? >> this is a really interesting point that you make, karen. and colin, i want to explore this a little more. historically, we've thought about these tensions in that region, or at least the -- tensions there, between sunnis and she has. whether it was iraq, who was

sunni at the time led by sunnis, and iran, a shia country. the tensions in syria, largely split between sunni and she aligns. but we have seen that start to dissolve. hezbollah is a shia group, hamas is a sunni group. the houthis are a largely shia group. tell me about this. iran has somehow managed to merge tensions that have been going on for millennia. >> yeah i mean it's amazing, actually. you have to tip your hats to the iranians in a twisted way. they have been able to, while using sectarianism as a cudgel in the region, also overcome that divide. they have been a sponsor of palestinian islamic jihad, and hamas. and that is very difficult to do in this region where sectarianism has been the defining characteristic for so many decades on end. i just want to say one more thing about, i think the second order effects of this conflict that we haven't talked about

enough. and -- alluded to it earlier, which is the more the united states strikes in iraq and goes after -- -- hezbollah, all of these other iraqi shia militias, the more pressure there is on the government in baghdad to evict u.s. troops. if that comes to pass, ali, we are going to be in some serious trouble, because it opens the door for the islamic state to revive. and we have seen the islamic state attacks in turkey and iran recently, and that is i think the elephant in the room that not enough people are talking about. what happens outside of the initial iran israel conflict. ? or the iran united states conflict? there is all these other brushfires on the periphery that we have to be careful of. because it is the law of unintended consequences, and that is going to be painful in a region like the middle east. >> yeah, i'm glad you brought that up. and karen look, there is another thing, we don't always need to delve into history. but this one is important, and that is the iran deal. there were a lot of reasons why a lot of people didn't like, it they thought it didn't do enough in terms of controlling

iran's nuclear ambitions. but what it did do is that created a direct line of communication, in the lead up to it and under the deal between america and iran. and at this point, with all of these iranian influenced groups, our lines of communications are disrupted, they go through different people. when we are trying to make a deal with the iranian influence thomas, we go through qatar. you know, there are all sorts of things we have to do now, that don't involve direct diplomacy with iran. >> right, and i am so glad you brought up the jcpoa, the iran nuclear deal, and our pulling out of it under president trump in 2018. and i think that that breakdown of communication was actually extremely important. but you also have to remember, just on the heels of that a couple of years later, is also the assassination of general soleimani. and so, once you have these two things a couple of years apart, put together, and we you realize that that breakdown of

communication, really we have seen this before. and remember that after soleimani was killed by the united states in iraq, iran said we are going to, we are going to respond in our own way, in our own time. which is very much what the united states is saying now. and so, it is all part of this conversation of, yes there is a breakdown of communication, we are going to signal to each other that we are going to say we don't want to do, it but we are going to keep showing that we will do something and take action, if certain lines are crossed, like the killing of american troops. or, like the killing of soleimani. and so, i think this is a very precarious situation, which is enhanced tremendously by what you are talking a, which is where are the lines of communication? and where are we going to find the reliable actors that can facilitate communication happening? and are we going to be able to do it at all? >> colin, one of the things you and others have talked about is the link between this, obviously, in the israel-hamas

war. do these activities, enhanced the need to get that deal done, the current discussion about the hostage. hold on, i'm going to ask you both to stop. we have breaking news just in. we are now hearing that there have been brand-new strikes. the united states and israel have hit at least 30 targets in ten locations. this is coming from the united states and the uk governments. this is a larger attack. the various ships are involved in the red sea region. f-18s, carrier based f-18s have been involved in the strikes, he 18 crowd lawyers have been involved in this strike. more than two dozen aircraft are flying off of u.s. aircraft carriers in the region. some of them are carrying 2000 pound bombs inside -- air to air missiles and precision guided missiles. they have launched at least 30 targets now. these appear to be, and i'm going to wait for confirmation, i'm going to ask my executive

producer. these all appear to be against houthi targets in yemen. you've seen in the last 24 hours, attacks in syria and iraq against iran affiliated groups. we are now seeing yemeni targets now, 30 targets in ten locations. again, i will repeat, these are coming from aircraft carriers in the region and the red sea. targeting houthi rebels in yemen, f-18s have been involved in this thing. yesterday, we had the one bombers that had flown from texas. we have now got -- f-18s, and the 18th. they fired more than two dozen aircraft, that have launched, and have fired these missiles. we are now looking at 2000 pound bombs that have been dropped in yemen. we are looking at side winder air to air missiles, and precision guided missiles. this is in addition to, at the beginning of the show, me telling you that there had been attacks earlier this afternoon, in yemen. those seem to have been part of

the on going attacks between u.s. forces and yemeni houthi forces. this is different, this is part of the larger attack that we saw starting last night. we are going to get more information on this, i want to go to matt bradley in tel aviv, who is following this very closely with me. matt, this is a big attack. >> yeah, this is a big attack. and we have been hearing from the pentagon that there will be continuous attacks, or weeks of attacks and reprisal. but you know, this is part of an effort to continue to attack against these iranian proxies. but we have been seeing attacks like this, not necessarily to the same degree, but continuous, for the last several months. we actually have been seeing attacks against iranian proxy groups in iran and syria for the past several months as well, and retribution for the attacks that we are seeing almost daily by those groups in iraq and syria. this is part of that continuum, this is part of those continuous attacks. this time against the houthis

in yemen, who have been taking strikes against international shipping. and then also, against u.s. destroyers and other naval assets in the red sea and -- for the last several months as well. so this shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. again, ali, the big surprise that is going to be coming here is, if the u.s. attacks the iranian mainland, inside iranian borders, or iranian naval assets in the red sea or in the gulf -- or anywhere in that region. in the strait of hormuz. so, this hasn't yet happened yet. what we are seeing now is an increase in the degree to which we have been seeing reprisal attacks by the united states against those attacks that were done by these proxy groups before. so, if we see a real big break out from that, and that would represent something like attacking the iranian mainland, then we know that we are in the territory of really ratcheting up the pressure and bringing us further to a region wide war, which is an eventuality.

but the u.s. and iran itself have said they are trying to avoid. and as we know, in any war in the middle east, the main burden would be carried by the civilians that the entire region. ali? >> all right matt, we are gonna continue to get more information on this. of course if you get more, let me know. i want to get everyone, i want to talk to colin and karen for a moment again, if my -- can organize. that but i do want to give you some context about this. this is 30 targets in ten locations. 30 targets in ten locations. last, night there were 85 targets in seven locations. in syria, and in iraq. basically, along the border of syria and iraq. but nothing to do with yemen. these are against yemeni forces. so take a look on the map there, you've got israel and jordan, basically in the middle. you've got syria and iraq, closer to the top, that is where those attacks that now go all the way down to yemen, and you can see the red, see the gulf of aden, and that very

small, that very small slip off of the southern coast of yemen. that is where ships that go through the suez canal, and get goods from asia to europe or vice versa travel through. that's where those commercial vessels have been targeted. they've been targeted by the houthi groups. shia groups essentially, militia, who have been targeting those ships and calling for a cease-fire in israel. they have said that when that cease-fire occurs, they will stop the bombing. there has been back and forth targeting between yemeni and americans for the last few weeks there. but now the americans have hit ten targets, 30 targets in ten locations. from aircraft carriers in the region using f-18s, and e a 18. karen and colin, i just want to get your take on this. colin, first of all, as bradley said, not unexpected. in fact if anyone was look at the strikes last night, some might have been saying hey, we haven't really been hearing a

lot about iran and syria, but what about the houthis, where we have been hearing about that? what's your sense of what has happened just now? >> yeah, we are still in the very early phases of the u.s. response. it's way too early to say what the impact will be, we will wait for a formal battle damage assessment to kind of suss that out. but look, make no mistake about it, we are in a regional war right now, whether we want to admit it or not. war exists on a spectrum, we are towards the lower end of that. but just look at the number of countries involved, looked at the number of non state actors involved. the u.s. attacks against the houthis have been joined by the brits, other attacks throughout the region, the jordanians joined in. and if you look at iran's access of resistance, we have palestinian islamic jihad, hamas, lebanese hezbollah. this is a regional war, ali. and you know, the administration has been hesitant to call it that, especially in an election year. but if you look at the amount of military hardware and munitions, there is no other

conclusion to reach. >> karen, your sense of it, only in the context of the fact that these are iran affiliated groups, that is what we called. they are equipped in many cases by iran, they are in many cases trained by iran. something we have seen from the houthis, we have seen attacks from the houthis that many people didn't know was actually a possibility. but are the houthis acting at iran's behest? or they acting on their own? >> well it's not an either or actually. it is who is getting the exact control for a specific event, that is one thing. who is providing the, training the money, the military, the weapons. -- to create the conditions where these attacks could take place, are the iranians. and so again, it's this question of the lack of definition is intentional, the lack of definition is in and of itself a weapon of war. and that is what is happening

right now. so no, are they giving the exact commands for everything? not to our knowledge. are they complicit in what's happening? absolutely. and so, and i think colin's, point i just want to underscore, is very important. at what point do we say, we are in a war, when state actors are involved, non state actors are, involved and the region is unable to extricate itself from this in an any country at all? >> this is a 2023 reality, that it is not countries declaring war on another, in some ways russia and ukraine was intriguing, because it was a country invading a another country. but in the middle east, you are not going to have such clarity. thanks to both of you. karen, -- karen greenberg is the founder and director of -- the center on national security. colin clark is a director of research at the -- group. let's talk about yemen, that's where those attacks are right now. yemen's and has become a notable player in the conflicts in the middle east. it is one of the poorest countries in the arab region, right there at the bottom of your screen. it is in the middle of a

prolonged civil war between the houthis, a rebel group that is backed by iran, which controls large parts of northern yemen. it is largely a shia group. and a coalition, a largely sunni coalition led by saudi arabia. and in the last few months, the houthis have launched dozens of attacks against commercial and military ships, that are traveling through the red sea. and since the attacks began, numerous shipping companies have suspended travel through the red sea. that is a crucial trade for global shipping, because ships go from asia up through right where you see it below, yemen on your screen, the up the red sea and through the u.s. -- the houthis say they are carrying out the attacks in support of the people of gaza, with the intention of hurting israel economically. and they have continued to launch attacks on vessels as recently as this week, which prompted the u.s. to respond with strikes to intercept the houthi missiles just a few hours ago. this is not what happened a few minutes ago, those attacks occurred a few hours ago.

those attacks, those strikes by the u.s., we are not part of the plan for a retaliatory response against the iranian- backed proxies in the region, that were responsible for the deaths of three american soldiers in jordan. joining me now is gerald firestorm, the former united states ambassador to yemen. he is a distinguished senior fellow for diplomacy and the director of arabian peninsula affairs program at the middle east institute. thank you for joining, us we appreciate you being here. >> let's just talk about this. yemen is, if this is all hard to understand and hard to make sense of, yemen is one of the most complicated parts of this to understand. and for some people, very surprising, because we don't talk that much about yemen, other than being in a civil war and being a humanitarian catastrophe as a result of that civil war. but now, america is in a shooting war with the houthis. >> right, so one thing i think we have is, as you said quite

correctly, yemen has been in a civil war for nearly ten years now, between the houthis and the internationally recognized government, which is now -- . the houthis have long been known, and they have a slogan, that has been their kind of motto for 20 years now, of death to america, death to israel, kherson the jews, victory to us all. and then this is something that is very much integral to their identity. the fact of the matter is that yemen, yemen knees -- across the broad spectrum are very pro palestinian, feel very strongly about what is happening in gaza. and the houthis believe that what they are doing in the red sea is popular domestically, as well as enhancing their regional reputation. >> jerry, tell me how.

i mean, the question i was just asking -- how do you imagine this all goes down? are the houthis doing their own thing, are they doing it at iran's instruction? or as karen says, possibly a little bit of both? >> well, i think, in again our intelligence community has said repeatedly that they have seen no evidence that iran is directing these houthi attacks, that they are pulling the trigger, if you will. as karen said quite correctly, they are providing the material, the weapons that the houthis are using. we believe that they have provided intelligence support to the houthis, to allow them to target individual ships. but, fundamentally, there is a meeting of the minds between the houthis and tehran. it is not that one is directing the other, they agree basically

on this strategy, and what they are trying to accomplish. >> terry, standby for a second. we are getting reporting in, so i am just trying to get as much reporting about it on, about this from our reporters on the region. let's go to london. josh lederman is standing by, josh, what have you got on this? >> well, we know that this appears to be one of the most significant, if not the most significant attacks by the u.s. and the uk against the houthis, since that initial silva weigh in january 11th. in fact, we are hearing that there are 30 targets that were hit at ten locations, including two dozen aircraft that the u.s. and uk used. some of them, launched from an aircraft carrier in the sea. and that is really significant, because what we have seen of the united states undertaking some of these strikes on a near daily basis, really for the last several weeks, they have often, ali, been targets of

opportunity. basically, the u.s. military sees that the houthis are about to launch something, either at a u.s. asset in the region, or at a commercial ship. and they seize that moment, to try to strike the area from which the houthis are planning to launch. we haven't really seen this type of major effort to really degrade their abilities in several weeks. and it is also notable, the fact that the military of the united kingdom is also participating in. because they have only participated in two of the strikes before that initial round on january 11th, and then one additional strike about a week and a half after that. and so while you are right to point out that this is distinct from what we saw last night targeting iraq and syria sites, we have to point out that this is all part of the same effort, and the same problem, according to the u.s. and its allies, the

united kingdom. they see all of this iran- backed militias as part of the same type of, they call it the access of resistance, the same type of campaign by these iran- backed groups in the broader sphere of influence of iran throughout the region, to try to undermine security in the region, to really exploit the situation taking place in israel and the gaza strip. and so, as we see the u.s. taking action in iraq and syria, we see the u.s. and its close ally also making clear that they are going to go after these groups anywhere they are in the region, to make sure that they are not able to undermine security for american troops, such as those three that were killed in jordan, as well as shipping, maritime, the economy. and so, this is a signal that we will expect to see more and more of this. and in fact, the u.s. had really foreshadow this, when it's said that its response to those, that killing of those three troops in jordan was

likely not going to be a one- off, it was going to come in stages. it would be multi tiered, was what we heard defense secretary lloyd austin say just a few days ago. and, now we are seeing that really for the last several nights in a row, we have seen u.s. strikes targeting these iran-backed groups in various parts of the middle east, ali. >> josh lederman, thank you. let's go to keir simmons, who is standing by in iraq. here, you and i were just talking before we get confirmations of these new strikes in yemen. a different story than what we saw last night, but one that as you pointed out when we were last part talking, was to be expected, given that a lot of the shooting between the united states and iran-backed proxies has been with the houthis in yemen. >> yeah, and we are hearing from the houthis alley, such is the nature of the world these days, that they respond very quickly at times. so they are saying that we will meet aggression with aggression, we will not stop.

so -- immediately from the houthis, who very likely given the signaling from the, u.s. from the biden administration, probably expected this frankly 24 hours ago, and won't be surprised. they might be surprised, as joshua -- at the scale of, it we are here from our pentagon team, that at least two dozen aircraft, 24 aircraft, some with 2000 pound bombs. so those are quite substantial. it does look as though, and now i'm just looking down, because we have got reporting. again, this is the modern world, we have got reporting from -- from the u.s. side, but it is -- from yemen itself, from the news agency there -- . so it does appear that -- some of the major cities there in yemen is one of the targets, or at least the governor of -- is one. -- -- al bayada, these are all

targets according to the -- , whose agency in yemen. and i'm just, reading i'm looking down, ali just nowhere to be able to relieve got here. it says the american british aggressions lawn -- and then, in two -- . and then again, targeting al bera, and haifa -- . with 11 strikes. so, just according to that yemeni news agency, 11 strikes, 14 raids. and add those together, i guess that's 25 strikes, just accounted for by that agency and the agencies on the ground. so we will see, we will hear more about exactly what the targets or. but, you to just have to reflect at this moment, that it also does signal, doesn't it, that the initial strikes, and then the subsequent many strikes that we have seen. i mean, i think we now may be in double figures, in terms of the number of u.s. uk.

certainly u.s., and at times uk as well. we may be in double figures, maybe ten strikes on yemen. and that is not including the reactions that we saw. we just saw one earlier tonight, reactions to the houthis starting to launch, preparing to launch missiles. just think about that, given that when this all started, we weren't sure whether we it would be a one-off. and we were asking questions about whether it would have to be strike after strike. so, this does look like a very substantial operation, by the u.s. and the uk. but we just have to reserve judgment, and what impact it will have. certainly again as i began answering your question, the houthis are trying to signal defiance, and will be determined to show that they can still hit commercial vessels in the red sea and the gulf of aden. >> -- the thing we are looking for here is, we have been thinking about this for the

last 24 hours, what does a response look like? iran has put out an official statement, the president, to say if iran is harmed, it will retaliate. but as you and matt and i were talking about earlier, iran has an ability by using these proxies, or by the proxies carrying the south, iran has the ability to say we didn't do that, so you better not do anything to us. >> yeah, the houthis actually are one of those proxy groups that are, according to analysts, and by analysts i mean including western government analysts. according to analysts, they are one of those groups that are perhaps a little bit more distance from tehran, a little bit more independent. so, i suppose a question mark is over whether iran is able to stop the houthis, even if it wanted to. but i wouldn't underestimate the level of integration, the extent to which the houthis are doing what the iranians want them to do. we were talking earlier, the

army, about how all of this is really putting the focus on iran, in a way that iran might find actually relatively uncomfortable. i mean, in terms of, sometimes you just have to reflect back on the strategic goals of an adversary. and in iran's case, the goals are to try to push america out of the region, and to put pressure on israel. it has other goals, but those are two crucial strategic goals for iran. now you have to ask yourself, if there is too much of a spotlight on iran, if these proxy groups look to be acting in concert the way that they do right now, because of the crisis in gaza. or certainly, they blame the crisis on gaza for what they are doing. if that is happening, it has the potential to pull america into the region, rather than achieve the goals that iran is trying to achieve, which is to push america out. but what effectively iran is trying to do, is to engage in a shadow war with the u.s., that makes things very uncomfortable, and makes the american public uncomfortable, and it speeds of a process

where america decides to leave. that is in iran's mind, that is in its eyes what it would like to try to achieve. but if you amp it up too much, and again, speaking from the perspective of the iranians. if you amped up too much, frankly, you pull america in. so it's interesting, because we have been talking right the way through the day about how much of a difficult judgment the biden administration has to make, in terms of its reaction. again, we are seeing tonight with yemen. and we don't know if there will be more here, in this region where i, am in iraq and in syria, in the coming hours or days. but equally also, the iranians are trying to balance a strategic approach, in order to achieve its objectives. >> keir simmons, thank you. -- standing by in iraq, we are all of course collecting as much information as we can on this to find a. but i will bring you up to speed as to what has happened. there are new strikes in yemen. here makes the point that there were strikes in -- today. that is not part of this new

mission that we saw launching last night. this new set of strikes that have happened within the last half hour are. this is a strike on at least 30 targets in ten locations in yemen. this is conducted by the united states, and the uk. there were several aircraft carriers involved in this, and the attacks were conducted by airplane. there were f-18s and e 18 growlers, that flew off of those aircraft carriers, dropped two dozen aircraft, they dropped two -- and they launched side winder air to air missiles and other precision guided missiles. this is of course different than how it was done last night. last night involve b one bomber's that were flown from texas, in the united states, 7000 miles east over syria, and iraq. so these are different, different types of attacks that have been going on. we are now waiting for further information, and responses on this. but joining me in the meantime

is hagar -- she's a former spokesperson for the united states mission to the united nations. a former spokesperson for terrorism in financial intelligence at the treasury department, and a former director for syria and lebanon at the national security council. -- this whole conversation is around the idea that the united states is launching these strikes in order to deter attacks against u.s. forces by the people who are conducting those attacks, but also by their sponsor, iran. there is a bit of a message to the groups themselves, including the houthis now tonight. and, to iran, don't do this. tell me how this plays, out given that iran is not admitting that it is a direct participant in any of the things that have affected u.s. troops of the last four months? >> you know what's interesting ali, is that they don't admit they are part of it, and get that they do. because they continue to go out with their blast, or to say for example that the u.s. is making

a strategic, a strategically bad move here. we all know that these are groups and militants and terrorists across the region, some of which have been created by iran, some of which have always existed and are now armed, funded, and trained by iran. and while it is true that iran is not micromanaging every single group, they are not telling him exactly what to do and when to do it. but at the same time, they support every single step they are, taken because of this shared goal. and that shared goal, make no, case is not about defending palestinians, it is now pushing the west out of the region, so that they can spread iranian influence across the region. so that they can affect policy changes, that support in iranian goal, support the iranian regime, for example. and so, that is at the crux of this, that is the most important thing to remember. >> one of the things that we need to think about here, in fact we got a response from the houthi political bureau, in which they say this will continue until the aggression

against gaza stops, no matter what sacrifice it cost us, we will meet escalation with escalation. what actually acts as a deterrent to these groups? because they are not little groups. you would think that if america is bombing a bunch of little groups, they will get the message that we are not going to war with america. but these groups have resources that small, non government actors typically don't have, because they've got iran. they are getting their training from iran. to target the ships in the red sea there is not weaponry that the houthis would typically have. >> that's right, when so that worked for iran -- . and trying to go through -- it for the war for it's like -- a big fish. because if they are able to use the israel gone gaza conflict as a reason to pursue these facts. and that is what it is. i want to be very clear, that for them as a cover. while these attacks didn't exist before, you had attacks in iraq and syria before. the houthis are jumping on this bandwagon now, why? because it gives them

legitimacy, gives them notoriety, and allows them to further fund-raise to further recruit, to get more support from iran, and to give themselves a bigger name than they had before. and so suddenly they are on -- suddenly all of us are talking about the houthis. and so they are not a strong -- small group. but i would still clarify that they are rather juvenile. they are rather like the toddler in the grand scheme of military capabilities. and with the united states is trying to do is, by striking them again today, the ones you just saw, the once in the last half hour, that was deliberate to follow up the strikes that took place in iraq and syria yesterday. because the u.s. likely expected the houthis to be the ones to have the ability to retaliate. now that the u.s. degraded the military capabilities of those groups in iraq and syria. and that is very much part of typical u.s. military planning. they do these in -- levels, in part to continue the message, and the effort. but also, to try to push back and say you know what, there are a bunch of --

>> hagar, i'm going to stop you for a second, i'm sorry. we just has news coming out of the white house. standby, let's go to the white house. aaron gilchrist is standing by, what if you got >> we just got a statement from several countries involved in these strikes that you have been talking about in yemen, including obviously the united states and the uk, but also australia, bahrain, canada, denmark, the netherlands, all saying that they have conducted an additional round of proportion and necessary strikes against 36 houthi targets across 13 locations in yemen. the number is a little different from what we have heard earlier, this is the response. they say the houthis as well as naval vessels on the red sea. these were precision strikes intended to disrupt the capabilities that the houthis used to threaten global trade, and the rise of innocent mariners. and, i am literally just looking it as we were on the air -- so having read through the whole statement.

today's strikes specific targeted sites associate with the houthis deeply buried weapons storage facilities, missile systems, and launchers, air defense systems, and radar as well. the houthis now, more than 30 attacks on commercial vessels and naval vessels since mid november constitute an international challenge. and so as we had been expecting, obviously from the administration telegraphing to us throughout the week that this would be a multi tiered response to the attack that we saw in jordan last weekend. we now have the second operation, that includes all of these other countries, and in particular the uk, in terms of the actual physical and military power that was used, but in coordination with these other nations, as has been the case in the past ali, we