good evening, i am jonathan

capehart. we begin the saturday show with breaking news from the middle east. the united states and its allies launched another round of strikes against iran-backed militants. the strikes hit at least 36 targets across 13 houthi controlled sites in yemen. the pentagon says these strikes are a message to the houthis to stop interfering with global trade in the red sea. a statement from defense secretary lloyd austin reads, in part quote, they will continue to bear further consequences if they do not and they are illegal attacks on international shipping and naval vessels. we will not hesitate to defend lies, and the free flow of commerce in one of the world's most critical waterways. however, u.s. officials clarified today's attacks are not in response to the american casualties in jordan. a spokesman for the houthis warned the group would retaliate. writing, quote, we will meet escalation with escalation. this comes as secretary of state antony blinken prepares to depart for saudi arabia tomorrow. he will be traveling across the region to help negotiate a humanitarian cease-fire in

gaza. just moments ago, we got this report from nbc's courtney -- who covers national security in the pentagon. she is aboard the uss eisenhower in the red sea. >> i am on board the uss dwight the eisenhower aircraft carrier in the red sea, where tonight the u.s. military continues to target and respond to attacks by the iranian-backed houthi rebels in yemen. nbc news is the only broadcast outlet -- with navy ships as they continue to target these houthis. now on friday, the u.s. shot down a rebel drones over the red sea and gulf of aden. also on friday, the u.s. targeted for houthi drones inside of yemen, that they deemed to be an imminent threat

against commercial shipping and military ships operating throughout this region. despite the continued strikes by the u.s., and the strikes by british military, the houthi rebels remain defiant tonight. now, it's also important to point, out defense officials point out that these strikes the u.s. has been carrying out are not part of the overall mission here, called operation prosperity guardian, to defend against houthis attacks. and in fact, defense officials say that they are taking these strikes under their self- defense authority as they see some of these drones as a potential imminent threat. now tonight, the u.s. navy on this aircraft carrier stand on high alert, and ready to continue to target those houthis if they continue to threaten shipping in this region. back to you? >> again, our thanks to courtney -- on the uss eisenhower in the red sea. joining me now, nbc news foreign correspondent keir simmons, who is coming to us live from iraq. here, what more can you tell us about these strikes? >> when well, i think they are clearly substantial. they are talking about 2000 pound bombs, 24, two dozen they

say aircraft. so that's, that's a big operation, compared for example to the kinds of strikes that we have seen over the recent weeks, where often times they have been responding to the houthis, according to the u.s., preparing to launch missiles. now, it is a group of countries, it is the u.s. and the uk. but a number of others to that, the netherlands, new zealand, quite a group. and that i think is, it's sending an international message. because of course, this is about trying to protect international waterways, shipping lanes, crucial shipping lanes. now, they are talking about the u.s. sources, talking about this being separate. i think that was what courtney was saying there. this being separate from the strikes that we saw 24 hours ago here in this region, in iraq and syria, which was that

response to the killing of those three u.s. servicemen and women. i think that is understandable, because clearly the u.s. would want to delineate between its independent action here, and that collaboration of states targeting the houthis that you heard courtney talking about. but inevitably, he just stepping back from a wider lens, this is all part of the same thing, frankly, which is about the targeting of those iranian-backed proxies, the at the houthis or be at the iranian-backed militia, here in this region. and, trying to send a message to back off, because there have been these disparate attacks from the red sea all the way through to hear, targeting u.s. spaces, all claiming to be

about supporting the palestinians in gaza. but also, part of in a rainy and, a long term strategy, which is to try to push the u. s. out of this region, and to put pressure on israel. so i think we will see now what comes next. we know that there are likely to be more strikes in the days, perhaps even weeks ahead. i think that ultimately, this is a message for tehran, in the message to tehran, as you need to stand down. whether tehran will get that message, or whether even then some of these proxies will listen and will respond in themselves, i think that is open to question tonight. >> keir, let me get you to clarify something. because i think for a lot of folks in the american audience, the houthis came from out of nowhere, this situation with the united states doing battle with them. did the houthis attack the, these attacks start after the hamas attack of october 7th, or is this something that the u.s. military has been dealing with in the region for months, maybe

even years before october 7th? >> well, that's a good question. these attacks, this round of attacks, if you like, and there have been many from the houthis, they did begin after october 7th, quite soon afterwards. and so clearly, the crisis in gaza, the war in gaza has been a catalyst for there and many many other places here in this region. but there is a long history with the houthis in yemen. in fact, the saudis fought a multi year war against the houthis, that at one point was backed by the united states. because there has been, there has been perceived to be a real problem with the houthis, there are huge questions about their approach to human rights for example, in yemen. yemen is a very, very poor country, and it's been fought

over. and of course, its neighbors saudi arabia. so saudi arabia considered to be a threat. now what's interesting is that the saudi arabia and the houthis in yemen were on the verge of a peace deal, things had really calmed down, just at the point at which october 7th happened, and then everything flares up again. so, you can just see in that story that on the one hand, the gaza crisis is a capitalist. on the other hand, many of the things that we are seeing our issues that have been in place for a long time. and that just takes us back to this point about iran, because i think what is happening right now for many americans is they are getting a spotlight, a view on iran, and iran's reach across this region, that maybe they didn't understand before. certainly, iran's strategy has been to expand its influence, try to push america out of this region, and ultimately as i

said, put pressure on syria, and in israel. and that is certainly the case in syria, which is almost itself a proxy of iran, the entire country. and of course it borders israel, so there are many complexities and all of this. >> nbc news foreign correspondent keir simmons is coming to -- us iraq, eight hours ahead of us here in washington. i really appreciate your giving us this live report. >> joining me for more on our breaking news, retired admiral james -- he is msnbc's chief international security and diplomacy analyst, and the former supreme allied commander for nato. admiral -- as always, thank you very much for coming to the show. first and foremost what do these strikes signal to you about u.s. priorities in the middle east right now? >> well i think the pentagon and the white house, they tried to differentiate a bit between, these but it's all one piece. just as iran's controlling, houthis hezbollah, hamas, and all of the groups in syria, in

iraq, the united states on the other hand is fighting a multi pronged, multi front campaign against all of that. this particular set of strikes tonight is part of the maritime effort here. so think of what's happening in syria and iraq as the land combat, and here at sea, the houthis are trying to stop global shipping. so these strikes are specifically designed to go after the maritime capability. but it is really all part of one campaign, jonathan. >> admiral, as you probably heard keir simmons's report a moment ago, this isn't just the united states, it was the united kingdom, the netherlands, and new zealand. why is this coalition of countries now joining the fight , and what is the significance that it is not just the united

states taking the fight to the houthis. >> yeah it into words, it is global shipping. >> in other words, the global economy depends on the freedom of the high seas. and if there is a blockage. and that is really what the houthis are creating, is a blockage of one of the most important choke points, the red sea. and therefore, stopping the suez canal, and they are boarding ships, you are showing some footage now. look how professional they are, they are very capable, they look like navy seals taking down a ship. so what has happened is the global shipping companies are moving away from this region, and that adds costs that are going to be borne by all of us. so yes, it is the united states, the united kingdom. by my count, we are up to about 15 additional countries that are involved in these efforts. because it really is a threat to global shipping, global commerce, and there for the global economy. >> so then admiral -- , as you said before, this is the maritime piece of what has been happening, what we saw

yesterday. the bigger question is, how does this not end up escalating into a full on region wide war? >> well first and foremost, neither of the two principal adversaries here, and i would score that as iran and the united states, neither tehran nor washington want to blow this thing up into a major war. pretty obviously in washington, president biden is in a reelection year, he doesn't want a big war in the middle east. and in tehran, the moola's know ultimately they would lose, and lose a significant chunk of their military capability of this came on to a full blown regional war. so jonathan, i think we are going to see continuing strikes. it's a possibility it could

escalate to a full on war, but i think it is a low probability of that occurring, -- incentives run in the other direction, both in tehran and in washington. final thought though. and in a diverted incident could really send an high -- . i'll give you an example, if a houthi missile got through u. s. navy defenses, hit a u.s. navy warship, sank it, we would lose 100 plus sailors. that's the kind of incident that would spark this thing in a high order direction. so you are right to be concerned about it. >> you know, secretary of state antony blinken, as i reported earlier, is due to arrive in the middle east tomorrow, he is heading to saudi arabia. what will his presence mean for the u.s. military response, if any? >> i don't think it will shift the way the u.s. military is responding. these are two separate tracks at this point. tony blinken, who is doing magnificent work, i think he is on his fifth shuttle trip to

the region. he is very focused on the longer term peace outcomes, hopefully moving towards a two- state solution, hopefully getting some traction on getting remaining hostages out, hopefully providing additional humanitarian aid to these desperate civilian populations in the gaza. over here on the military side, the military is trying to deter iran, and keep a lid on the conflict. these two efforts are going to meet eventually, but for the moment, secretary blinken has his platter of challenges, as does the u.s. military, two separate tracks at the moment. >> let's say secretary of state blinken is successful in achieving all of the things you just laid out there, including a cease-fire. how much would peace in gaza lessen tensions with iran? >> i think it would be a significant positive factor, particularly when you move out of tehran, and you get to these

individual terrorist groups, hezbollah, hamas most obviously. really the houthis articulate that they are doing all of these attacks in support of the palestinians. i think from a perspective of the overall tension in the region, secretary blinken's efforts may be the most important part of this going forward. and if he can achieve even a portion of what i just described, it would lessen tensions across the board, jonathan. the reaction, to the latest round of airstrikes in retaliation to the attacks by

the iranian houthis on shipping? is this the correct response from the united states? >> i think, very much so. and in something like this it is very, very important to -- especially when you have the loss of lives. but it just as important not to escalate. and i think what we have got going on here are experts at work, trying to find the sweet spot. but we tally eight appropriately, and not -- >> in the previous hour your republican colleague, congressman bacon, told ali velshi, point blank that he believes that the united states should directly -- for all of these -- directly retaliate against iran, hit tehran. with that be the proper

response? >> absolutely not. the fact of the matter is, we are in a pretty precarious situation here. we are fighting in support of our men and women in uniform. we are also trying to protect commerce on the high seas. and we are supporting our allies in israel. and we have to protect the ukrainians in their fight against the russians. we have an all involvement that we must be careful not to get involved in the full scale war in the middle east. and so, a lot of things are said to support what -- i think

maybe your constituents concern. but i would let the experts have a listen, and keep the politics out of. it >> -- constituency. you are in south carolina, your home state, and today is the big south carolina primary, congressman clyburn, as you well know. the polls are closing in less than an hour. what are you hearing on the ground about voter turnout and enthusiasm from president biden? >> you know, it's kind of interesting. i'm glad you asked that question. yesterday, and the day before, i saw -- people on the street, making comments in the barbershops, beauty shops. you know, i think -- people were just going to stay home. i get up this morning, and i start pulling around, and lo and behold, the so-called early voting that took place, there are about 75 or 80% of what they were when we had --

candidates running. i thought it would be 50% or less. but -- 75 or 80%. so, the interest is there. and i listen to some of these comments. people said, yes. a lot of people disappointed that they did not do 100% of what he said he was going to do in on the three years. but he has made significant progress for -- saying he was going to do. and i don't know why people think, you've got a full year term. everything must be done in the first two years, or else you have not fulfilled your promise. -- have to be careful to recognize that, because of that, it's the -- for all america. and he has to look out for what is going on in south carolina. but he also has as much concern about what goes on in north carolina and the other 48 state. so, that is what we have to be careful of.

i am very pleased with -- second place in south carolina today. i just can't wait to see what the percentages tonight. >> and real quickly, congressman, if that percentage is 75, 80% of what it was four years ago, real quickly, what message does that send to you, and the white house about its chances in november? >> i think the white house chances in november a very, very good. i think the american people are waking up to the fact that this economy, in the last quarter, grew twice. what is particularly good to grow. three 3.3 growth, and everyone is looking for 1.5. we saw job creation, over 300,000 jobs. everyone is looking for around 150,000 jobs. so, i think, as -- indicated, now catching up to the presidential conference. and i do believe it's going to be a very good year for

president joe biden, and a very good year for the american people. >> congressman james clyburn of south carolina, thank you very much for coming back to the saturday show. >> thank you very much for having me. >> and stay with, us as we continue our breaking news coverage on the latest round of strikes in the middle east, led by the united states and british forces. i will be talking with former cia director john brennan right after the short break. short br. help prevent covid-19 from breaking your momentum. you may have already been vaccinated against the flu, but don't forget this season's updated covid-19 shot too.

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more on the breaking news from the middle east. a u.s. led coalition conducted strikes on at least three dozen targets in yemen. the attacks hit sites under the control of iran-backed houthi rebels. the pentagon says the houthis will face for the consequences if they continue to interfere with international trade in the red sea. a spokesman for the houthis told nbc, quote, the american aggression on yemen will not affect us, and they will see that our military operations

will increase instead of being stopped. join me now, former cia director john brennan, he's an msnbc senior national security and intelligence analyst, and author of undaunted, i fight against americas enemies at home and abroad. director brennan, thank you very much for being here this evening. so, tell us. why are the houthis intent on attacking ships in the red sea? is it solely to disrupt international trade? >> i think, jonathan, it's a demonstration of solidarity with the palestinian people, or with hamas, and as the fighting continues to go on in the gaza strip, the houthis are going to continue to carry out these strikes against international shipping. as a demonstration of their ability to lash back at those that are supporting israel, and attacks against u.s. naval vessels, as well as others in the red sea, allows them to do that. the houthis control, basically, all the western and northern parts of yemen. and so, they own, basically,

the yemeni coast on the red sea. and they have portable capabilities that they can use to lash out. so, again, i think what prompted this latest round of attacks against shipping is a result of what is going on in the gaza strip. >> so, they say, they are prepared for a long term conflict with the united states. what would that look like? >> again, they have significant capabilities that have been enabled by iranian support over the last several decades. the houthis is a tribe in the north of yemen. what they have been able to take over much of yemen, as a result of internal strife there. and so they are able to continue to carry out these attacks. they were involved in, basically, a war with saudi arabia for a couple of years. and so, i think, again, they are trying to demonstrate that they are not going to be cowed by u.s. military action. but i must say, the number of strikes that are taking place and the size of the munitions being used, hopefully, will degrade their ability to carry out these attacks against

civilian champion, merchant shipping in the red sea. >> might other iran-backed militia groups be drawn into this fight? >> well, i think they already are throughout the region, which is one of the challenges the united states faces. what is going on in syria, iraq, and against our forces in jordan and other areas, i think is iran trying to show that it has the ability to disrupt activities in the region by using these proxy forces that they have supplied and funded over the past many years. they provided munitions, weapons, training, intelligence to these groups. and they can direct them as they see fit. but some of these groups, which have localized agendas, though, will listen very carefully to iran. and in light of the continued conflict in gaza, and iran is a very strong supporter of hamas as well. they have funded and supported hamas for many years. i think this is iran's way of showing that it can, in fact, push back against the united states, using these proxy

forces. >> you know, i've asked this question of congressman clyburn in the last block. i asked this question of you as well. congressman tom bacon of nebraska, republican of nebraska, was on with ali velshi the last hour. and he said that the united states, the administration, should bring the fight to tehran in retaliation for all of the things, for all of its sponsorship of terror in the region. would that be the proper response for the united states? >> -- believe so, i heard that interview with president bacon. maybe he was just using some catharsis. here because iran, clearly, has been responsible for a lot of bloodshed, including american blood, over the past number of years. but what are we helping to accomplish with an attack on iran? because it would open up a major, major war. what would happen when we went into iraq, what happened when we went to into afghanistan. i do not believe we want to engage in a major conflict with iran, a country of 90 million people.

what are we hoping to accomplish their? if anything that is going to bring the iranian people together is if the united states attacks iran. that's why i think we can clearly send a message to iran, by attacking its force, is it special forces that are embedded with a lot of these proxy forces and villages throughout the region. i would argue against any type of direct confrontation with iran, absent some type of direct iranian attack against u.s. interests. but i don't believe that there is a lot of support for representative bacon's position. >> you know, director brennan, u.s. officials say the strikes are not retaliation for the american deaths in jordan. but i'm just wondering, is this a distinction without a difference? we have heard reporting from keir simmons, who made that point also, and admiral stavridis, who made that point in the last block. >> i think with the houthis have been doing against shipping in the red sea and -- taking place for quite some time. and we have taken strikes on the houthis prior to the death of our three service people in

jordan and -- injury of over 50 others. so, this has its own sort of rationale as what we are trying to do with the houthis. but with the biden administration right now trying to do used to pursue multiple objectives simultaneously in a complex region of the middle east, which is, to try to keep our forces safe wherever they are in the middle east, which requires the depriving of these groups the ability to carry these lethal attacks. it is to help protect international shipping in the persian golf and also in the -- keep alive the prospect of -- saudi arabia and israel. they are all multiple objectives here, to include not having a broader war in the middle east, and engaging in a direct confrontation with iran,

which is one of the challenges the biden administration has, but also, i think, it is having very -- effective strategy here of this delicate balance among all of these different objectives in a way that addresses the threats that we face, but at the same time, not doing something reckless that is just going to further engulf this region in violence and in flames. >> former cia director john brennan, thank you very much for coming to the saturday show. >> thanks, jonathan. >> stay with us, as we continue to update the breaking developments in the middle east u.s.-led strikes on houthi targets in yemen. ahead, i look at how president biden's handling the u.s. response. and how cease-fire negotiations in the israel hamas war could impact what happens next. happens next. help prevent covid-19 from breaking your momentum. you may have already been vaccinated against the flu, but don't forget this season's updated covid-19 shot too. ♪♪

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the strikes hit approximately 30 targets in 13 locations across that country. some of the missiles were launched from the uss eisenhower. defense secretary lloyd austin just released a statement, saying the strikes were meant to disrupt the houthis continued attacks on important shipping lanes in the red sea. joining me now, nbc national security reporter dan de luce, and alex ward. he is a national security reporter at politico, and author of the internationalist, how a radical plan to outlaw war remained the world -- dan, alex thank you both for being here. dan, i'm going to start with you, how might the houthis respond to the latest round of airstrikes? >> the houthis have plenty of drones and missiles still, i don't think it's necessarily the case that even after these airstrikes, that this is it, right. so they are very experienced at getting bombed. the saudis bombed them for years, so they still have the ability to move, drones are

very small, that could be put in the back of the truck. so i don't think we are going to see the end of this, this is going to continue, and it is going to be this effort to try to push back. but i don't think this is over, and the houthis have issued these defiant statements. >> right, saying they will meet aggression with aggression, that is one of those statements that was made. you know alex, these strikes are coming on the heels of a round of mortality strikes against iran-backed militias in iraq and syria. what do you make of the timing here? >> i think they are related, but not necessarily connected, right. i mean this is all one big part of iran packing militants in the region, solidarity with hamas, also in their connection with striking and killing american troops. so you know, iran is the connective tissue, but these are, two separate, in a way fights. that said, you asked the white house, is this part of a broader middle east war, one that has expanded further beyond expected? and they will say these are

actually individual fights. of course, it is all happening in a close region, where there are these -- tethers with iran behind it all. >> you know, the u.s. says a cyberattack against iraq and -- it's proxy will be part of the response. what do we know about that, and how might that play out? >> well we've gotten it to the point now where in every kind of warfare combat now, cyber operations are a part of the whole recipe. but u.s. officials public they are not ready to talk about this at all. and i think it goes without saying that that would definitely be part of the operation. so part of that is to protect your own forces, so you are trying to disrupt the houthis or even possibly iranian ships in the area that might be providing electronic surveillance and intelligence. this is all something that is classified and they don't want to talk about. >> they don't want to talk about it. >> hey, alex, so maybe the white houses talking to you about this, about, what do we know about the white house's

role in planning these strikes? >> i mean, at this point they've kept a pretty close hold. i don't even like to say when the next ones are coming. at this point, what we do know is that they do not want to strike inside of iran. i know you spoke to -- and we heard from congressman don bacon earlier with ali velshi. and he reiterated a republican talking point, which is that they do want strikes inside of iran. i actually talked with bacon myself fairly recently, in which he said iranian oil infrastructure or naval ships should be targets. that is not where the white house conversation is right now, they think about attacking proxies and their targets in syria and iraq or elsewhere as a deterrent message, and the breadth of the strike so far. if there were something massive would have to change to change the administrations calculus to strike inside iran. >> yeah, and then, talk more about that. i was actually quite surprised to hear a member of congress saying, take the fight to

tehran, where everything coming out of the administration, and even the foreign policy national security apparatus has been saying, we need to be very measured about this, that no one wants a wider war. not the united states, not not iran. >> -- the school of thought that's more hawkish school of thought. you hear that, oh, you've got to go to the heart of the matter. you've got to go to the sponsor of these proxies. but keep this in mind, though. no u.s. administration has carried out a military operation inside iran since jimmy carter was president. right? so, even president, trump for the hawkish rhetoric out of that white house didn't do it either for the reasons you just mentioned. i think what the white house was trying to do now, they've put their chips on diplomacy. they're hoping that if they can clinch this agreement between israel and hamas for a cease- fire, and maybe even persuade israel some how to be able -- open to a two-state solution to get the saudis involved in that broader agreement, that takes the oxygen out of this crisis.

and then that is the way you ultimately get out of this very dangerous situation we are in. >> and i'm glad you brought that up, because as a reported at the top of the show, secretary of state antony blinken is leaving for saudi arabia on this very mission, to try to help negotiate a cease fire, we will wish him luck with that. thank you dan -- de luce, and alex ward, who is the author of the upcoming book the internationalist, the fight to restore american foreign policy after trump. next, our other big breaking news story. the democratic presidential primary, underway in south carolina. polls are still open for another 18 minutes. we will go live to the -- states to hear what voters are saying, as polls there are about to close. to close. a migraine i ct when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt.

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carolina, where voters are going to the polls for the first official democratic presidential pipe primary of 2024. those polls will close in just under 15 minutes, and president biden is all but assured to win. the big questions are now about turnout, and the presidents margins of victory over his two challengers, minnesota congressman dean phillips and author marianne williamson. here is what some voters had to say earlier today. there is some concern about enthusiasm among democrats come november. do you think enough democrats are excited to vote for joe biden? >> probably not. i mean clearly, they've -- a few people today. and i think that's some indication. i hope it will change between now and november. >> i don't see why people -- i see -- donald trump. >> he's probably going to be indicted before he is president. >> he's a liar, he's a cheater. >> okay then. joining me now is nbc's -- he is at a watch party at columbia, south carolina. -- when can we expect to see the results of south carolina's

primary? >> look 2020 if it's any indication what -- widely assume that joe biden is gonna have a sizable margin of victory over his two, challengers mary and luis and dean phillips. and at -- least the lion's share should be counted the real question here isn't about who is going to emerge victorious and more so it's just around how many source are going to, vote among the base democratic officials are optimistic that they at least have a good enough selling eye they are still supportive of president biden. >> reports also show that some -- polling locations have been moved or closed without their

knowledge of that? >> yeah i spoke to one election director, and she told me she heard complaints in the low country, voters who went to their -- only to final it was closed. at issue here seems to be state law sample meant cost cutting measures for the presidential primary elections as a result what i was told is we went--a 51 part of that law also required require counties to make sure whether or not jaime harrison himself, this morning go to his polling -- only to find out that it also had been closed. so, i was told that all of those voters they were able to be directed to their precinct all right -- thank you for that report. joining us now, is national political correspondent steve kornacki. he is digging into the data,

and ready to break down the results once polls close at the top of the hour. steve, we know who is likely to win. so, what are you watching for tonight? >> yeah i mean, look, you get it right there. what is the turnout going to be, how do you interpret that, what's the marginal to be for joe biden? obviously when you look at south carolina, this has been a priority for joe biden since 20 twenties changing of the democratic calendar, making south carolina the first date. remember he wasn't actually on the ballot in new hampshire. the dnc at his behest said hey new hampshire can have that early primary, but they are not getting delegates from it. so this is the first official democratic contest, the first time biden's name is going to be on the ballot against these challenges. so we will see a task there, but we already sought in new hampshire, just as a write-in candidate, how well they did. this is the say that rescued everything in 2020.

remember biden had been crushed in new hampshire and nevada, it look like his campaign was out of gas, and one more than 2 to 1 over bernie sanders. and the key to it for joe biden was the black vote. you can see here he got 61% of it in south carolina four years ago, and this has been the majority of the demographic electorate african americans, this is been the modern story of the south carolina democratic primary. if you can win the black vote, you can win this state, and when it big. hillary clinton, 86% of the black vote in 2016 over bernie sanders, won the state in a landslide. barack obama 2008, nearly 80% of the black vote. remember, obama had won iowa, he had lost new hampshire, it was a close race with clinton. he got a landslide win in south carolina, in much the way it ignited joe biden in 2020, it really ignited obama in 2008. so this in some ways is a test of the enthusiasm of what joe biden has seen since 2020, as his most loyal bloc within the democratic party. what kind of turn out is it. now in terms of what to compare this to, here is the problem, we have nothing! here is turnout for all of the

south carolina democratic primaries, okay. and you see the numbers vary wildly. but the key is this, take a look at 1996, and take a look at 2012. those are the two years that are like this year. an incumbent democrat running for reelection, it was bill clinton in 96, it was barack obama in 2012. well, both parties in south carolina have a tradition, when they've got an incumbent running for reelection, they canceled a primary. so we had no primary in 96, we had none in 12, that's the kind of year you would want to compare this to, in terms of turnout. we don't have that as a basis of comparison. and also in terms of the margin for biden, i think we used new hampshire maybe, how he did in new hampshire as a write-in candidate, now that his name is actually on the, ballot he probably wants to do better than that. but, what can we compared to? we've had one incumbent president of either party, who has ever faced a primary in south carolina. it was a republican, it was 1992, it was george bush senior, and george bush senior was challenged by pat buchanan, who did exceptionally well in new hampshire, at least there to expectations. bush beaten by 41 points, david duke was running that year, he got 7%. but, that's the only incumbent president who's ever faced a primary in south carolina. so not a lot of benchmarks

here. but as you say, in less than ten minutes now, polls are going to close in south carolina, -- county start lighting up. there are some counties here we are paying particular attention to, that have majority average american populations. those are the ones he particularly was looking for the enthusiasm factor. how many folks are turning out, just how big is the biden margin? and i think, yet we will get a pretty good sense here, within a half an hour i think, of some of these questions. >> so steve, on the turnout question. to your point, the fact that president biden is an incumbent running for reelection. should we read anything into it, if the turnout numbers are not big? could we read into that that people realize he is the president, he is already going to win, no need for me to vote. should we temper and how we

look at how we look at turnout, especially if turnout is low? >> yeah, i think there is two ways to read the turnout question. and one is like your saying hey, it's the expectation that this is a foregone conclusion, not a lot of suspense, and therefore the turnout is just low. again, what exactly constitutes low turnout? it's tough to find a historical benchmark. one way to read is what you are saying. another though is, is it a question of enthusiasm? because we have seen in some polling, there are questions about enthusiasm among some core democratic constituencies. and that includes black voters. so if the turnout is particularly low in the majority black areas in south carolina, that might speak to something we have been seeing in the polling. and the other x-factor in all this of course is that in three

weeks, the south carolina republican primary is held. and we know the importance of that to nikki haley, we also know for haley, she is trying to win over democrats and independents. and here is how it works in south carolina. there is no such thing as party registration in south carolina, nobody is a real -- no one is a registered democrat, no one is a registered republican, you just register to vote. but the rule, if you decide to participate in today's democratic primary, you can go ahead and do that no matter who you are, but you cannot vote in the republican primary on the 24th. so how many democratic-leaning voters, people who call themselves democratic, are going to sit this one out, because they want to vote against trump on the 24th? that is an x-factor. >> and, in terms of key counties that you will be looking out for steve, i don't know if you have them at the top of your head. but i do know that the county where columbia is, the state capital of south carolina, that has a big african american population, no? >> yeah basically, a lot of the counties in this sort of mid stretch of the state, excuse me right here in --, this has the largest black population of any county in the state. it is 71% african american.

rishu county, where columbia is, is about 50% african american -- league county is about 65%, so look for that. orangeburg county is about 65%, so we will look there. williamsburg county is another big one. these are the counties that i think we are going to be looking at tonight, and there's a whole bunch of them kind of in this region right here. when you get to the up country of south carolina, very low black population especially up near clemson in the mountains, that were clemson university is, where greenville is, spartanburg, not much in way of the black population in york county, comparatively speaking -- charlotte metro area, very little in -- where myrtle beach is. charleston, it's about 24% african american. so really, it is this area in here. and i think we have these counties with majority black, large black populations. and i think that is where we look for that for the turn out question. >> and then one other question for you steve. i know that in south carolina, veterans are a big demographic in south carolina. should we expect him to be more of a factor in the republican

primary? or could we see them as a factor in the. democratic primary? >> yeah, typically i think leaning a bit more republican. and i think again especially in the year like this, where there is so much activity relative to the democratic primary on the republican side. and i think that that is something that haley, folks who are really paying attention to this night, might be nikki haley's campaign. they may be paying next to the president, they may be paying most attention to this race tonight. because again, she is trying to dip into independents and democrats. and every vote that is cast in this primary tonight, the higher the turnout gets, i think if you are in the haley campaign, you are looking that and saying every one of those votes is a missed opportunity to get someone into the republican primary to vote against trump. >> steve kornacki, you have honored me with your presence. thank you for very much, we will see you in just a few moments at the top of the hour, when you will join amen to dig

into the primary results coming in shortly after the polls close. and that will do it for me today. thank you for watching, and be sure to turn in tomorrow to the sunday show, when congresswoman pramila jayapal, chair of the house progressive caucus, joins me live to discuss the latest u.s. military action in the middle east. republicans efforts to impeach dhs secretary alejandro mayorkas, and much more. that's tomorrow, at six pm eastern, right here i know some pc. right here i know some pc. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want, when they want it. (jen) now we're even smarter and ready for what's next. (vo) achieve enterprise intelligence. it's your vision, it's your verizon. as the world keeps moving, help prevent covid-19 from breaking your momentum. you may have already been vaccinated against the flu, but don't forget this season's updated covid-19 shot too.

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