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it is sunday, february 11th. and you are watching "velshi" on msnbc. i am charles coleman jr. filling in for my friend and colleague ali velshi. and we have got a lot to talk about. very soon, two titans and the airfield will go head to head and one of the most anticipated matchups we've seen in a while. they're gonna grind it out with rules and counter roles, each of them looking to get just a slight advantage to claim the ultimate victory. no, i'm not talking about tonight's big game, although i know many of you are also waiting on the edges of your seat for that too. but i'm talking about is this year's other major matchup, the presidential election between joe biden and presumably donald trump. nothing less than the future of american democracy is at stake this year, and with the election still months away, right now, the race is beginning to take shape. following thursday's oral arguments in the 14th amendment case, it now appears likely that the supreme court is going to allow trump to remain on the ballot. but here we have a twice

impeached ex president who basically seems obsessed with retribution. trump is running a rematch campaign, and at the same time, he's mounting a multi front criminal defense. now, this combination is an extremely high stakes game of let's make a deal. you remember that, what's behind door number one, door number two? but what is behind door number one? it could be jack smith's election interference case to go to trial before november. or is it the fulton county election interference case, or is it the stormy daniels hush money trial, or is it the classified documents case out of mar-a-lago? it could be any of these cases, or it could be none of those. big money -- now, i know that that is from another game show, but just enjoy the metaphor. it could be another shot at the presidency and an effort to stack the government with loyalists and dish out revenge on his political enemies. the latest national poll by nbc

news showed trump beating biden 47 to 42% in hypothetical matchup. but it does appear that there's a number of voters who would change their minds if trump is convicted of a felony. when you add that not so insignificant variable to the mix, a trump conviction by november pushes by the narrowly ahead 45% to 43%. now, it's worth noting that both of these results are within the margin of error. but donald trump isn't just going to randomly choose your number one, number two, number three. he is not just hoping to win the grand prize by chance. donald trump is going to do everything in his power to slow down every criminal trial he is facing as long as he can. hopefully, until after election day. this is his effort to really minimize the chance of a prison sentence being there result behind door number one or any door for that matter. trump's legal team is likely to file an appeal to this report by

tomorrow regarding his presidential immunity claims. and doing so is going to mean that his federal election interference case, which many believe is the most consequential one, is going to be further delayed. that trial is expected to last 2 to 3 months. now, the longer it stays paused, the more likely it becomes that this year's october surprise could actually be a jury verdict coming out of d.c.. his strategy is no secret. the match is set. but this is hardly a game of chance or odds. what happens next, quite literally, could shape the future of our nation for the next four years the, if not indefinitely longer. joining me now is reena shaw, republican political strategist and commentator former rnc delegate and founder of strategies. and my main man david cevallos, criminal defense attorney and msnbc legal analyst. danny, i get to talk to a lawyer, and take my glasses off. first block in the shades being here, you know, he's going to

be back -- donald trump is going to be back in court this thursday, there's the hush money case that is looming. has the landscape, given everything that we've seen so far, has that changed for you in terms of what you think the most important case that he's facing is? >> well, the two biggest questions are of course timeline and then also, i think, a separate question is what case is the biggest threat. and i've long said that the new york state criminal case is not impressed -- it's based on a novel theory of the law and a novel application of the law. i think two things could happen. the best thing that could happen for trump is that that case would go to trial right away, and he would either win acquittal or possibly even get it dismissed. that case, i think, has a low likelihood of being successful against donald trump. now, if you just playing the odds, i have also long said that any federal case as a better than 90% chance of resulting in a conviction. so you take the two federal cases against donald trump, and they have a strong likelihood of resulting in a conviction.

and then georgia, a couple of months ago, i might have said it that posed a real threat to trump. now in light of this latest motion to disqualify the fulton county d.a. and dismiss the indictment, i no longer think that case is as strong as it used to be. that case is faltering. it may be on the ropes. >> but, reena, my friend, i've been having this conversation about donald trump, the defendant, and donald trump the candidate, sort of being one and in the same at this point. as we continue to see these legal entanglements sort of heat up in donald trump's defense, both publicly and within court, basically being that he is persecuted, what do you make of that nbc poll that i just talked about where it says that there's a sector of folks who essentially seem like they're not buying it, and if he is convicted, that could sway their vote? >> so, i will say this, because we're looking at the court of public opinion here, right? court of law -- and donald trump gets that. that's why with many of

republicans remain lukewarm about him after 2020, he tends to pull them back in every now and then. not on the merits, of course, of any of these cases, when we are looking at 90 some indictments, people say, well, don't you think it's sort of unfair that all of these are coming at him now, as he's announced his candidacy, and he seems to be polling so well. and i think we got to be willing to split hairs here. we have to be willing to understand that the mechanics of this race are so different because of how, frankly, how the rnc works. and we saw it just in nevada this past week. you've got a party infrastructure that is not completely there. it is remade in the image of trump. it is run by trump loyalists, some of whom are under federal indictment, i must add. so when you're dealing with, i would say, the facts being so skewed towards non reality almost, then you're offering a different set of circumstances. nikki haley exists for this very reason. it is a race that is bigger than

nikki haley when she is still in it because she represents that opportunity for the republican party, for the people who are lukewarm about trump to say, we're finally down with trumpism. that's conventional wisdom, charles. but, again, political theater makes it so that these members of congress come every day, and they try to tell you, just like elise stefanik this past weekend, that laws are not lost, and that they can be turned at any point. and that, i would submit to you, my friend, is that most tough and difficult factor for republicans to overcome in this primary. >> and, rina, you just mentioned the rnc, and it it prompted a follow-up that i have for you. is nikki haley the plan b? is she the contingency plan? does the rnc have any contingency plan for a donald trump conviction and what that could mean for his candidacy? >> i have spent some time with rnc chair mcdaniel was not yet don, but submitted her plans to

resign after the primary of south carolina at the end of the month. so, look, there's a lot of bad blood all throughout the party. mcdaniel leaving, the post of chair, you can almost expect that it would be an incredible trump loyalist, somebody who is willing to change things in such a way that they cannot be changed back very easily within a few years. mcdaniel, no matter what she was publicly, privately, she was still pretty moderate for the most part. and i would just say for nikki haley, of course, she is plan b right now. but there would be a lot of obituaries written after the 24th, and that is the hardest part, where anybody within this party right now trying to push back on. so you have to hope that the turnout is what it is because, again, the rnc has always said it's a turnout operation. it's not one in which it tells the candidates what to do, nor does it push one candidate before another. but, again, you heard a lot of talk out of both sides for a lot of the rnc leadership over eight years now.

>> danny, i want to switch gears a little bit. last night, we had donald trump's defense team in mar-a-lago file a very, very late night document, basically saying, look, after the special counsel's report, biden isn't charged with respect to his documents and the documents that he wasn't supposed to have. so we should dismiss this case because donald trump shouldn't have been charged. and i know a lot of people are saying, here we go again, donald trump is trying to delay, delay, delay. but i want you to talk, as a defense attorney, in terms of the different vehicles and political maneuvers -- legal maneuvers that people can take in order to try and fight for their client, and how normal or abnormal for that matter something like this is? >> the argument of selective prosecution is often made, and you're basically saying, hey, what about that guy? that guy did the same thing and you're not prosecuting him. i've made it. it works almost 0.0% of the time, and i'm not even aware of an instance in which it has worked.

but we make that argument, knowing that we just need to make a record as a defense attorney's, and maybe you get lucky on appeal to use an analogy, it's like saying, no grammys, no emmys. stop on that great -- >> thank you, my friend. >> thank you for that call back. you know, these kids out there don't appreciate what good game shows were back in the 80s. >> the google's -- >> exactly. so i think in this case, you've got a situation where the trump defense team is trying everything they can. that kind of selective prosecution argument is really not likely to work. but, i mean, they will try to incorporate whatever they can from the special counsel's report, which of course is not presidential. it's just a rare report. we don't get special counsels very often. we get these public reports, even we are still. but i find it fascinating because they give us especially defense attorneys, and almost never, never opportunity for an access to the inner workings, the thought process of a federal prosecutor, in deciding whether or not to bring a prosecution, considering all the factors. and i have to say, i was a

little buoyed by the idea that a prosecutor would go beyond just thinking, in the biden case, hey, i can get an indictment. i can get probable cause, but i don't think i can get to beyond reasonable doubt. they did not necessarily say that part about getting an indictment, but they considered it whether or not biden would be a convincing witness, and whether or not his position of the documents was inadvertent. so i found that very interesting, just pivoting briefly onto the robert her report. >> about a hush quick question for you and one more for reena. on thursday, we had the supreme court arguments, one thing that i did not hear was any sort of argument about whether trump had actually participated in an insurrection. do you read anything from that, and if so, what? >> because strangely enough, whether or not trump actually participated in insurrection, maybe the legally least in significant issue in an entire panoply of incredibly complex issues, that i mean, even listening to the argument, i think many folks, even folks like me who follow it, it was tough to keep up because they speak in that kind of legal shorthand, referencing cases,

that will you have to be really deep in the case to follow. but the reason the insurrection factual issue is less important is because, for example, another court, another state, another secretary of state could make a different factual conclusion. in this case, in the colorado court, they used an expert who interpreted meanings and words in terms of saying that donald trump's words incited -- exactly, right. so, another court might do it differently. so that for the trump team isn't necessarily a win. the trump team needs a global victory. that's where they are focused on things like the definition of an officer. if the supreme court goes their way on the issue of officer, that is a global remedy. that could be applied in every state, whether the secretary of state is making the decision, or a court is making the decision. but i think the reason you didn't see a factual focus on whether or not donald trump committed insurrection, it's because as crazy as this sounds, with all the other constitution, legal issues before the court, that may be really comparatively a minor

one. >> i'm glad you said that. but i have to leave rina with the last word. i have a very important question for you. tonight, who do you have, taylor swift or usher? >> [laughter] do i would have to make that choice? i'm a gal of the 90s. usher, i've got it that -- >> much appreciated. let it burn, rina shah, and danny cevallos, thank you for getting us started on this sunday morning. coming up, the senate is set to reconvene in less than two hours. after the break, we're gonna head to capitol hill for the latest on the foreign aid vote. i'm charles coleman junior and you are watching "velshi" on msnbc. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ ♪ c. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ ♪ help prevent covid-19 from breaking your momentum. you may have already been vaccinated against the flu, but don't forget this season's updated covid-19 shot too. jordan's sore nose let out a fiery sneeze, so dad grabbed puffs plus lotion to soothe her with ease. puffs plus lotion is gentle on sensitive skin and locks in moisture to provide soothing relief.

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get the real deal, get xfinity. welcome back to "velshi" on msnbc. i charles coleman jr. am in for ali today. in just three hours, the u.s. senate is set to hold a procedural vote on the strip down national security. but the 95 billion dollar package would provide foreign

aid to israel, ukraine, gaza, and taiwan. however, it does not include voter security measures. this vote is just a culture vote, essentially, a vote to allow a vote on the bill. so the package will need to be voted on again in order to actually pass. now, if the senate operates by the book, they can allow up to 30 hours of debate after the cultural vote, which is set for one pm eastern today. now when that happens, it's going to push the process into monday before other amendments or votes would be considered. if this procedural vote fails, however, the bill itself is likely that. joining me from capitol hill is nbc's julie -- julia, thanks for being with me this sunday. we are just under three hours away from this vote. tell us where things stand now and what have lawmakers been saying? >> reporter: well, good morning, charles. as you mentioned, we are hours away from this key vote, which is essentially a vote of confidence as to whether senators believe there is a path

forward for it. it means 60 votes to continue this process. now, we have been hearing from some lawmakers over the weekend, their weekend in which the senate is in session, and we've had some speech on the floor yesterday including senator mike lee of utah, republican who spent around four hours slamming the supplemental bill and focusing a lot on the border, which is worth noting, this will no longer includes those voter measures, because republicans decided they did not want to support a bill that linked foreign aid with the border. and he strongly encouraged his republican colleagues to vote no on this culture vote today so that they could go back to the drawing board. he seems to think that they could come up with a better bill in a matter of days and the one that took months for bipartisan negotiators to put to the floor. but we're getting a sense of where some senators stand. take a listen to what tom cotton said about this piece of legislation earlier this morning. >> we engaged in negotiations

to see what the democratic priorities are. and we learned that the priorities are open borders, not securing our border, putting ukraine and other countries borders ahead of our own border, and that's why that legislation went down. it wasn't because we wanted to pass any deal just for the sake of passing a deal. we wanted to solve the problem. and the democrats simply were unwilling to solve the problem because they are ideologically invested in open borders. >> so we are hearing from republicans that they don't want to support this foreign aid bill because they want to protect america's bossier first. but as i mentioned, republicans are the ones that shot down the bill that did both. so we will see, come 1:00, if it has enough support to move forward, queuing up some more debate just in time for the super bowl. charles? >> that was nbc's julia jester on capitol hill, thank you. notably, immigration reform is not part of the national security bill that's being considered today, despite republicans demanding it for

months. after the break, we're gonna talk to texas congresswoman sylvia garcia, with more "velshi". we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ight back. ♪ ♪ ♪ can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ask about nurtec odt. ♪ ♪ nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. ♪ ♪ is this yours? you ready? surprise! i don't think you can clear this. i got this. it's yours now.

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most common side effects were nausea, indigestion and stomach pain. talk to your doctor about nurtec today. as we just mentioned, later this afternoon, the senate is expected to begin procedural votes on a long awaited 94 billion dollar package that would provide military aid to ukraine, israel, taiwan, and humanitarian aid to gaza. now, if you remember, for months, republicans insisted that they would only approve aid to ukraine if and only if that aide were tied to major immigration and southern border provisions. that includes changes to security enforcement at the u.s. mexico border, major changes to asylum rules, and overhauling a system that releases migrants into the u.s.

while they await their immigration hearings. democrats agreed to those provisions and they compromised on policies that many are calling more conservative than anything that was passed during the trump administration. and then, donald trump came out against the bill. and when it came time to vote, there were only four senate republicans who voted for the bill. even some of those republicans who actually wrote and developed the bill, like minority leader mitch mcconnell, who eventually voted against it. so democrats compromise again. they re-wrote the bill. they took out the border provisions that republicans had insisted on for months. senate majority leader chuck schumer expressed his frustration with the entire ordeal earlier this week. >> so first republicans said they would only do ukraine and israel humanitarian aid with the border. then they said they wouldn't do it, they would not do it with border. well, we're gonna give them

both options. we will take either one. we just hope they can come to yes on something. the bottom line is very simple. we knew about a week ago and trump mixed in and said, he wanted to be political and said he'd prefer chaos at the border because he thinks it helps him electorally. we knew that we might have to have a second option. >> now, just last night at a rally in south carolina, donald trump attacked the bill and congratulated his republican party for killing the bill that they themselves wrote. i can't stress this enough! this was their bill! and then, donald trump called for no aid to ukraine or any nato country unless they pay us back. joining me now is democratic congresswoman sylvia garcia of texas. congresswoman, thank you for being with me today. the republicans abandoned their own bill. is there any sense that, you know, that you don't have people across the aisle who are fair dealing, or dealing in good faith?

>> well, i'm obviously not in the halls of congress, but it seems like the senators are acting much like a do-nothing congress because they keep changing their mind. they keep listening to donald trump. and every day is a different scenario. but i think it is just simply horrific that they went through that whole process, and then just flatly through the negotiators under the bus, only because the twice impeached, four times indicted former president asked them to. and that is the tragedy here. >> congresswoman, you are from a border state. you are from texas, that's what you represent. was this a good bill? is it a bill that you would have voted for? >> well, the senate bill, as was drafted, i would not have supported it. i was born and raised in south texas, about an hour away from the border.

i can tell you that there is no signs of invasion. this is just another fabricated lie on the part of those people who want something to run on. you have to remember that everything that they're looking at is really not about solutions, it's about finding the scare tactic, finding the -- finding that show that they can run on in their elections. and that's why we have this turnaround. they'd rather just run on the problem rather than solving the problem. and i can tell you that i don't see some of the ingredients that they keep talking about when i go home, i was there for christmas, there is no signs of an invasion. i think that when you look at what's going on, and just focusing on eagle pass and that small strip, that does not really represent the entire border. and i think we need to make sure that we talk about all of the issues related to the border, not just the crossings. >> the border is one of the

issues that obviously is a dominating the news cycle, congresswoman. but we also have the issue that generally speaking, this congress is on pace to be one of the least productive that we've seen in modern history. this is not a good -- we would say, my friends and i, this is not a good look. and so, i am curious for you. let's put republicans to the side. for the voters who have sent you all to washington, to do a job, that is not getting done, what do you say to them in the midst of an election year where every seat in the house is up for grabs? >> well, for me, in terms of the congress in and the house, i can tell you that house democrats continue to fight, continue to protect -- for example, i catered to an act, probably the piece of immigration and it has the highest approval rating from the public, 70% of americans

support dreamers. yet it was in the senate bill. we passed it twice in the house. now this year, i can't even get it to a committee hearing, because republicans, again, are not looking for solutions. they're looking for soundbites. they're looking for scare tactics. we have a farmworker bill that was approved by both the former -- and the farmers. the first time you get business in farmers together on this. they won't accept that one either. there's a comprehensive immigration reform bill that biden sent over, president biden, early last session. they won't even look at that either because there is no real desire to make things work. it's been a very disruptive, chaotic. we went through so many months of even trying to elect a speaker, and now they're already talking about what they're going to do with this speaker because obviously, last week, he didn't get the

mayorkas impeachment done the way the maga republicans wanted. he did not get their funding bill for israel the way they wanted it. so they can't even come together on their own agenda. so it's a struggle that i would reassure americans that has democrats working hard to deliver for the working people of this country, and will continue to do it and work hard to regain the gavel and we can get the job done. >> that was democratic representative sylvia garcia of texas. thank you for being with us on this sunday. >> thank you. we will continue this conversation next hour with democratic representative seth moulton of massachusetts, who is a member of the armed services committee. but first, the role black women can and will play in the upcoming election. and how this voting bloc may make all of the difference in the future of american democracy. i am charles coleman jr., and this is "velshi" on msnbc. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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over the course of his 25 year career as an ob/gyn, doctor robert tweeted hundreds of women under the guise of medical care -- nbc news correspondent alison barber sat down with five of his victims, some of them speaking out for the very first time. >> i just thought no one was going to believe me.

i was assaulted by my gynecologist. >> i was molested by robert hayden in 1993. >> two days before the birth of my son, he sexually assaulted me. >> what is shocking to me is how little accountability there has been. >> yeah, hi, lori. its doctor hadn't calling. you know, i just got word that you called the office and you are upset. and you're calling the police. what the heck happened? what's going on? >> that's a voice mail from lorries gynecologist, columbia university doctor robert hadden , when he left just hours after sexually assaulting her at a postpartum checkup. >> ladies and we talk? i'm very upset. i don't know what's going on so please call me back. >> there was no one else in the room. i was naked in a paper gal and here's a man that had the guts

to overly assault me. all these things go through your mind. who do i speak to? how do i get out of here? who is going to believe me? it's my word against his. >> but her word was the truth. she contacted the police and set off a decade long struggle for justice. in the end, it wasn't just her word against his. more than 700 women came forward to say they too were abused by the ob/gyn over the course of his 25 year career. five of them shared their stories with us. >> do you feel like he manipulated the systems? or do you feel like this is dumb was set up in a way that just made this type of predatory abuse of behavior easily achieved in this context? >> i think he picked a system where he knew he could use it to his advantage. he was opportunistic but he was methodical. >> reporter: in 2023, hadden was sentenced to 23 years in prison

after federal prosecutors proved he sexually abused patients between 1987 and 2012. more than 220 survivors have now settled with colombia. the ones we've spoken to say it's not enough. >> i feel like no amount of money is gonna make me feel comfortable when i walk in a clinic. i can come with two hands, the amount of times i've seen a doctor since i was 18 until now. i just don't trust doctors. >> going to a gynecologist after that, i never told the doctors why it was traumatic. i just -- it was always like a meltdown. >> reflecting back on it, had a lot of sexual grooming over the years. >> what do you mean by that? >> the grooming behavior was the very long breast exams, checking to see if you have moles. he was my first ob/gyn so i didn't have the standard of care or the information -- >> he didn't care if your spouse was there, your mom was there, the chaperone was there. he had ways for no one to

notice. >> do you believe the systems allow this type of behavior can change? >> if we don't think they can, then that would be quite devastating. >> our thanks for nbc's alison barber for that report. there are currently at least 20 civil lawsuits that were filed against robert hadden under the survivors act that are currently still pending. nbc news reached out to hadden 's lawyers multiple times but they did not return a request for comment. up next, we turn our attention to a long overlooked yet incredibly powerful and critical voting bloc, black women. they are going to be central to biden's 2024 campaign. that's next on "velshi" after a quick break. ♪ ♪ ♪ ick break. ♪ ♪ ♪ and getting back on the apps. ha ha ha. variants are out there... and i have mouths to feed. big show coming up, so we got ours and that blue bandage? never goes out of style.

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president joe biden's campaign this cycle. long held as the backbone of the democratic party, black women had been showing up for decades, whether simply casting their votes or leading grassroots efforts in their communities. now, throughout biden's first tour, they have risen to prominent positions of leadership in the party, and currently serve as state chairs in seven states which include three battleground states. they also hold vice chair positions in seven other states. the influence of black women and black voters is going to be central to biden's success in this year's race, and that influence is more crucial than ever, given the presidents sliding poll numbers among black voters. a recent nbc news poll shows that support for biden among black respondents has fallen to 75%. now, that is still high. but consider the contrast of the exit polling from 2020 where that showed biden had pulled 87% of the black vote. if you think about the margins in these battleground states, these are not things that he

could afford to lose. and talking to the news -- south carolina democratic party chair and the first black woman to hold that post says that biden's sliding poll numbers could be attributed to a significant information gap. and that information gap is affecting rural voters who ought to feel marginalized and overlooked. many of these same voters, they aren't aware of president biden's initiatives, including his infrastructure programs, addressing the deteriorating roads, the efforts he's made around student debt relief, and investments in historically black colleges and universities. and now with democracy on the ballot, increased outreach to black communities has never been more critical. with more on this, i'm joined by errin haines, was the editor at large for the 19th news, and msnbc contributor. and as well my friend tara setmayer who's a senior adviser at the lincoln project and a former gop communications director. thank you for being with us. aaron, can you just talk about

how you legally position black woman, influencing this presidential race? and what does their relationship with the democratic party mean in the context of where we are right now? >> yeah, it's good to be with you, charles on usher concert day, by the way. listen, black women are gonna do what they have always done. they're gonna show up. and if anybody understands that democracy is on the ballot, it is black women. now, we know that one black women go to the polls, they don't just take themselves, they take their church members, they take their sorority members, they take their household, they take their whole community. and so, you know, if there is someone in a black woman's orbit who is even thinking about not voting, a black woman is going to try to convince that person to show up because voting is something that is so important to black women. and that has been true even before we had access to the

ballot. and so, i'm here in philadelphia where many, many black members just convened over the weekend and the power rising conference. and these black women are the black woman, they're gonna be organizing, mobilizing, they're gonna be helping, you know, outside of that democratic party mechanisms that you mentioned in the story that we have on our side at the 19th about the black woman state chairs who are already doing that organizing work and kind of spreading the party message, touting the party's record over these past four years in terms of what they see that they've done for the black community. but at the end of the day, you know, black woman, yes, they certainly are engaged and paying attention to elections and what these candidates have done. but black women tend to show up for each other. and that is what it means to show up for this democracy. >> tara, we've talked about the fact that we've seen biden's numbers slide among black voters. but what i find interesting about this is that it actually

isn't necessarily, or it doesn't seem to be, the work of republican strategists. this is happening kind of sort of all on its own. as someone who's been intimately involved in republican presidential strategy and republican campaign strategy, what do you make of that fact that this is seemingly been of democrats lack of messaging and nothing that the republican party has done to cause this shift? >> yeah, thankfully, i no longer have any part in the republican party because of the way that republicans have exploited race and gender, and the xenophobia. there's been a lot of reasons. but in this instance, i think there has been an effort by the republicans, just not the type of effort they should be proud of. and donald trump and what that republicans are doing, trying to go after black and hispanic votes has been very disingenuous. and they are exploiting the fact that democrats have taken for granted, oftentimes, black and

brown votes. and this is something that republicans have been eyeing for years, an opportunity to try to put out a conservative message that say, hey, listen, we actually have a policy solutions that are better for your communities. that went out the window, really, when donald trump came in, and the tactics they're using now or a bit different. now, what's happening in the democratic party, i think, and this is something that they cannot take for granted. for example, in 2020, donald trump, 20% more black votes in the philadelphia region, in pennsylvania. that is a critical voting area for democrats, for particularly joe biden, if he wants to win in 2024 again. so what's happening there? well, there is a part of it, there's an economic message. there is a part of it, because this is really more of an issue with black men than it is for black women where we are seeing this level of support slip somewhat. the issue of the economy, the issue of jobs, and there's also an element of sexism here and misogyny that we don't like to talk about, but there, that

they are attracted to with donald trump and republicans. but i'm not worried about the role of black women. black women have been carrying everything in the community on their backs for generations, from the 15th amendment to the 19th amendment, to the civil rights movement, from ida b. wells on up, i mean, there are countless examples of where black women have stepped up to carry the weight and the burdens of trying to get rights and opportunities for everyone not just them, because black women have to face race and gender as a hurdle, when it comes to these things. so what should democrats do? well, you know, there needs to be, as aaron said, there has to be an effort to get the word out about the differences in what your life will look like under a donald trump presidency, versus under a president biden presidency, which has actually been pretty good for everyone. but that message has got to get out, and have to start using their surrogates now because there's a lot of very powerful ones that can get out there and spread the word and make the contrast. >> you know, tara, i want to

follow up with you really quickly about the intersection points you made around race and gender. we have statistics that suggest that as many as 55% of white women who voted for donald trump , in comparison to 9% of black women who voted for donald trump . do you think that that recognition of that intersection is where you see such stark differences, or is it something else? >> no, i think there is -- the question i've been asked a lot of times is, like, how could woman at that rate, vote for donald trump, despite everything . even now, you know, donald trump still has, in my opinion, it way too high approval rating with white women in this country. but people have voted against their own self-interest a lot of times, and a lot of demographics over the course of history. cognitive dissonance is a hell of a drug. and there are other elements of what the trump maga movement brings to the table, as far as

xenophobia, white identity, sexism, and racism. and some -- and partisanship, this hyper partisanship that supersedes self-interest oftentimes, and i think that's what you are seeing in this weird gendered dynamic with white woman supporting donald trump. but you're gonna see, i think, a shift in that, considering dobbs, and now that there is a direct threat to certain rights, you're gonna see a shift, because you can just see that quinnipiac poll recently that joe biden went from 53% to 58% in the last couple of months. and a lot of that has to do with women supporting democrats because they're looking at trump and republicans going, we don't want our lives looking like we have less rights than our grandmothers did. >> and aaron i've got two questions for you -- are going to respond to that? go ahead. >> i was going to because, i mean, tara is making such a good point. we have got to also focus, for talking about race and gender, we have to also ask, you know, what are white women planning to do in this moment? you know, knowing everything that we certainly know about the former

president and where he is on democracy, with democracy being on the ballot, but also in this post-dobbs reality. if new hampshire and iowa are any indication, we know that white women are absolutely not planning to go anywhere in the republican party at least, when it comes to the former president. they're still supporting him, just despite his legal woes, despite everything that we know and have learned about him since even 2016. and so, you know, i certainly agree, if there is any kind of potentially shift in women's overwhelming majority supporting the republican party, it could be with gen z woman who are looking at dobbs and looking at their reproductive access and really wanting to use their vote to reject, you know, any kind of restrictions to the reproductive access. but in terms of how these races usually go, what we do not notice is that white women tend to vote republican and that is held true even in trump era.

>> and, errin, i've got about 30 seconds. people have made an issue as to the biden campaign's organization before black votes. are they behind the curve, just on time, or ahead of, you know, ahead of the curve? >> well, i think while we still have, you know, several months to go to this election, the time is now to start to message to people, as they are starting to tune in to this very consequential election, that is frankly existential for so many voters, including so many black voters who are really wondering what your life is going to look like on the other side and november. >> last question to you, errin, what time was that young man in his cropped up cruising the streets? >> [laughter] >> then i get it right? >> 7:00. >> 7:00, indeed. errin haines and tara setmayer, thank you both for this conversation. a quick programming note, just a reminder, if you want more of me and my friend trymaine lee, you can catch us both on our special black man in america, the road to 2024.

it's going to air today at four pm eastern on msnbc. of course, you can always streamed on peacock. coming up in the next hour of "velshi", supreme court watchers agree that this high court seems posed to hand donald trump a very big victory against those who are seeking to keep him off the ballot. well, my next guest also sees a silver lining for jack smith's election interference case in that supreme court handling of the 14th amendment. i am charles coleman jr., and another hour of "velshi" on this super bowl sunday begins after a quick break. ali will be back in this msnbc seat. but until then, i'm gonna be burning in this msnbc streets. see you soon. ♪ ♪ ♪ see you soon. ♪ ♪ ♪ all parts working in sync to move your business forward. with a streamlined shipping network. and new, high-speed processing and delivery centers. for more value. more reliability. and more on-time deliveries.

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>> reporter: good morning. it is sunday, february 11th. and you are watching velshi on msnbc. i'm