24, the republican primary south carolina, will be all over the map. what's the one thing that you are watching for? he's got appearances in new york, center for stuff is going on in florida, and then obviously the other things that are going on across the map. what are you watching for in particular? >> charles, i'm looking for two days from right now. thursday. that's when he's gonna be back in court in new york in his falsifying business records case, which is an inter election interference case. i think his attorneys are going to push hard to have judge merchan vacate or postpone his march 25th trial because of the judge holds the trial date, he's going to be in trial star starting march 25th, and he's gonna be in trial every day for weeks and weeks. that's going to cramp his campaigning style. >> grand and glorious as always, glenn kirschner, hits it on the money. thank you so much for being with us. that's going to do it for two nights reidout.

and charles coleman junior. do i will be back tomorrow night. all in with chris hayes starts right now. >> tonight on all in. >> we have the medicine. we're ready to impeach. >> republicans take another run and impeachment as new york votes to replace a disgraced maga member. >> i actually went to school on a volleyball scholarship. >> tonight, what we know about the fate of impeachment and the maga house. >> we are not the problem. the problem is on the extreme maga republican side. >> jack smith is responding to trump's latest attempts to delay his trial. and how vladimir putin's greatest investment keeps making dividends, as ukraine aid keeps getting blocked. >> it's shameful, it's dangerous, it's an american. >> when all in starts, right now. >> good evening from new york. it increases.

in the midst of a lot of late breaking news this evening. in just one hour from now polls will close in the highly contested special election in new york's third congressional district. that's a race to replace the disgraced former republican gross congressman george santos. now we begin on capitol hill, where moments ago, the current house majority, as slim as they come, narrowly approved an impeachment of president joe biden's homeland security along party lines. this is a purely political stomp. start a lane when it. that no high crimes or misdemeanors committed by the secretary or even, to be honest, alleged. there is almost zero chance he will face conviction in the democratic senate. in a new statement, biden slammed the impeachment, writing, quote, history won't look kindly on house republicans. the blatant act of unconstitutional partisanship that has targeted an honorable

public servant in order to play petty political games. this was their second attempt to impeach mayorkas after the first vote failed in spectacular fashion last week. that vote failed in large part because the unruly house republican conference has one of the narrowest majorities in history. just one hour from now, and nine pm eastern time, we are going to see if that narrow mega majority will expand its numbers by one or shrink even further when polls were close in one of the most fiercely contested and expensive congressional special elections in recent memory. new york's third congressional district, which represents parts of queens and new york city and the new york suburb of long island, voted for president joe biden by ten points back in 2020. the district has been trending red. that is in part because the lines of the district were redrawn after the 2020 census to be slightly less favorable to democrats. in 2022, it flipped for republican gubernatorial candidate -- leads eldon, by

two points. it also like to the guy you might remember. republican george santos, to congress, by little under eight points. santos, of course, lasted less than a year in office before suffering one of the most embarrassing flame outs in american political history. former congressman fabricated nearly every aspect of his biography, best as we can tell. he is currently facing trial this year on 23 felony charges. related to what prosecutors say are multiple screen schemes and drift grifts, including campaign finance fraud, credit card fraud, and lying to congress. santos has pleaded not guilty. he now makes a living by selling custom videos from cameo. in his place republicans are running relative newcomer mazi pilip, on paper a great republican biography, mother of -- former member of the israeli defense forces. in reality pilip has proven to be a stilted candidate, in which maybe why she's morales running from the press. for their part to democrats

earning a familiar face in tom suozzi, who used to represent the district before he left it back in 2022 for an unsuccessful run at governor. on the one hand, this is just one house race, and whoever when it will have to run again in november. they just get it for nine months. but because this is the first big contest of this election year, it has generated a significant amount of attention. both sides have spent a combined $22 million on advertising, the majority of which has come from groups supporting suozzi. it's likely to be a very close race. democrats are anxious, and perhaps it should be republicans who are nervous. because on the day of the election, in a perfect example of dysfunction of this house republican conference that mazi pilip is seeking to join. these impeachment of mayorkas is doing nothing to improve the situation at the border. republicans don't actually want us to fix the problems at the border.

we noticed we could literally within the last week and a half that killed a very conservative and aggressive bipartisan immigration bill last week after donald trump issued the order for them to do so. the thing is, it's easy to identify problems, border, crime, et cetera, but it's much harder to come up with solutions. which is why mazi pilip it any other fellow republicans aren't offering any, at least at the moment. it remains to be seen if there will be any electoral consequences. steve kornacki joins me now at the big board. steve, everyone says it's going to be a tight race. >> is looking that way, based on the polling coming into it. it's a high interest race. based on the numbers we saw from people participating in early voting, voting by mail. and then the indications we are getting from the various reports say about same-day voter turnout, even with the -- if robbie heard all about on long island today. a couple of things to look for here in a 9:00 eastern is when the polls are going to close. showing the district here.

this is the nassau county. long island portion. it's gonna be about 80% vote is gonna come out of the nassau county classic suburbia, a lot of new york commuters here, bedroom communities. the other 20% or so is going to come from the new york city portion of the district, the far edges of queens. kind of suburban queens, if you will. that sort of the composition of the district here. you take a look, you are mentioning that voting history in 2022, this was the santos victory over the democrat. it was about a seven-point victory, seven and a half point victory, and under the same lines, these were redrawn lines, as you mentioned, after 2020, after these same lines, biden would have won this district by eight points. so you have a burden eight margin under these lines to a santos was seven and a half margin. that was a swing between 2020 and 2022. what changed redistricting was this portion of the district's new. it's more blue collar. it's like massapequa.

levittown is down on the bottom, southern portion of the district. it's more republican. also more parts of queens, this and when you see democratic blue right there, it actually is an interesting thing to watch for tonight. much less blue in 2022 than in 20. and one of the least blue parts of new york city. a high asian american population in here that really seemed to shift away from the democrats in some pretty strong numbers in 2022. so polls are going to close at 9:00. what we expect is going to happen is that the early vote, which took place a week or so before the election, and the mail-in vote that's going to be reported first. those are the numbers we're gonna get initially. based on the registration of the ballots, it has been reported publicly, just a history that we know about early voting and mail voting, i think you can expect the early numbers are going to be the best that tom suozzi the democrat gets. the questions from that early vote, from the mail vote, how

much to see falloff? how well does mazi pilip on the same day vote? that's how republicans when they win elections typically it is with the same day vote. that certainly seems to be the republican strategy here, to rack up as many votes as they can on election day. again, some indications that maybe the turnout on election day, a lot of republican voters waiting till today to do that. expected him aquatic lead early. the question is, can pilip erase all of it individually moving ahead herself? >> steve kornacki, we will be checking in with you throughout the night once the polls closed. so don't go anywhere. i want to bring in sahil kapur, senior national political reporter, reporting live from an election watch party for the district's democratic candidate tom suozzi. and how did things look on the ground there? >> hey, chris, there's less than an hour to go before the polls. close the vibe here is still early. the candidate has not arrived. it's just started to get going.

the campaign tells me it feels good today but it believes these last few hours are crucial before nine pm in the polls close because turnout this morning was very slow. it was a very aggressive winter storm that made the roads borderline and drivable. but the snow stopped falling sometime around midafternoon. at least in the polling place that i spent most of the day at, voters started piling in. the turnout seemed to grow pretty substantially around that time. we've heard anecdotal evidence from around this district that that was the case as well. mazi pilip's was nervous this morning because of the low turnout but as steve just pointed out republicans are election day voters. they're relying heavily on election day turnout to over compensate or to try to beat back what is likely to be a big tom suozzi advantage. it gives them some reason for hope. but they still see mazi pilip is the underdog, she's less known, new to politics.

she doesn't have a kind of name i.d. that tom suozzi does. the biggest issue to watch in this race is migration. you can't turn on the tv without seeing a bombardment of ads from both campaigns on this issue. mazi pilip sees this is her ticket to victory. republicans keep pounding tom suozzi on the, air trying to tie him to the left on the issue of the border. he has rejected this. he's taking this very seriously, countering, saying that he supports this bipartisan deal to toughen border and asylum laws that mazi pilip opposes because she's taking orders from don trump, because she's tied to the extremist republicans, she doesn't want to fix the problem, she just wants to use it for politics. that's a fascinating early test to go on offense with the border. if it can work here, it could probably work in other suburban spring districts. this is a bellwether. for many other battlegrounds across the country, if tom suozzi you can pull this off and maybe in-flight to a draw, he's never gonna win on that issue, but if he could neutralize that for a publicans

it could have huge ramifications, not only tonight for this result but in the battle for the house of representatives and even for the presidential election given how closely these two candidates track their national parties positions on immigration. >> all right, sahil kapur thank you very much. jennifer balmy airy served as the white house communications director for the hillary campaign. she now the co-host of how to win 2024 podcast and she joins me now. so, there's two things i'm keeping in mind, and one is a lot that is sweet generous about this race. the santos factor. >> we hope. not reputable, and a district that's been moving in the new york summer ms. and specifically moved in different ways in the rest of the country . you've got polling that shows most recent polls suozzi by four points, but a lot of people think it's gonna be the

economic. a lot of place where i think that there are lessons is in what sahil said. a lot of democrats thought trump killing the border deal was a gift. if you have to use that gift in this kind of situation. >> right. there was a poll recently that showed that people blamed biden wore for the bill collapsing the trump, which is super frustrating for democrats like me. but the margin was not his biggest normally is for biden, for trump having been strong on the border as opposed to biden. so i think that sahil is right. if you live in this area is it all you see is suozzi pushing back. he's doing ads on the border. he's not just pilip going after him. so if he wins, and it's a tough district to win, even though he represented it before, it will show democrats you can fight this out. she attacked him, he put something back on the air to defend himself. he made a calculation to spend a lot of money on the border.

i don't think, though, it's not like the suburbs of atlanta or philadelphia here for this race. this is an important race for whether or not hakeem jeffries becomes speaker. i'm not sure how important it is, what it tells us about biden . because abortion in blue states, it's hard to -- >> i see we are saying. >> it's a big issue in states where people think abortion is, abortion rights are under threat. but they don't feel that way. he suozzi is going after her on abortion. i don't know it's gonna be hitting people in new york that abortion rights are at stake. so suozzi is not able to use. that >> a great point. one of your hypotheses, which i think was borne out in 2022, is that the salient of abortion, the issue the democrats lead the most on, is higher in states that are the state level it has been abandoned people have suffered the tangible

effects of roe v. wade. >> or they feel it's a purple state were red state. >> like michigan or pennsylvania. so he's using that as an issue. but i don't know if some of it's gonna break through the same way. >> she also sort of straddling. we play the clip of her saying pro-life and she thinks women to be able to choose. a foot on each. the other thing, to stay with his immigration question, i think if you look at it you can talk about issue salient, and we had plus here the other night, with a funny line, you don't just get to play offense. you have to play defense sometimes. campaign found on the train of who's going to be tougher on stopping the migrants from coming, that's a very reactionary direction. that's not where you're going to favor a democrat. i think actually it's a real problem with a national political discourse. but that's another thing. republicans want to keep this

issue is the most salient issue, which is why trump killed the border bill. it's why they are impeaching mayorkas. it's a question of how much you can, what to do with that. >> i think that it's hard in new york because it's right in your face in new york city. the migrant issue. swansea spent a long time on it. i did feel like he was, he was on the defense, he tried to make it offense. he uses abortion rights as another offense against her. i think the best democrats can probably do is fight those two are dry and i think the president making, i mean i would go to the border. i would go to the border and i would say, this is how many border agents we have here. it's more than any other president has in history. >> you're saying the president. >> the president do that. people can draft off with him. i don't think it's going to, i

mean you're not going to catch republicans on. it >> you still have that salient's though? >> yes, but you can try to blunt the issue. you can try to close the gap so that it's not before most people's minds. >> one thing interesting to me is the one way ration on crime, which drives me crazy. in 2022, all of those new york races were about crime. totally about crime. and at that point, it was the case that violent crime was up in metro new york. so, okay, that's democracy. bad things happen. crime down 23% in new york city this year. weirdly, it doesn't seem to be an issue. that's interesting, that's a huge drop. >> it's a huge drop. and what's interesting about this, and long island's, politics here are just different than anywhere else. you think of new york is a blue state but the salient's of

climate ilm immigration is part of long island, big deal and outsized anywhere else in the street and a lot of parts of the country. that's what that district thought, which is why suozzi was thought to be such a good candidate for this. he won nassau county as the executive in 2001 after 9/11, when terrorism was big and people were worried about crime . because he had it he was a tough on crime democrat. he's the guy you want is to mcgrath. but it has not, it's still a crime to consider to be the issue there. >> all right, jennifer palmieri, thank you very much. we will keep monitoring the race throughout the night. first, the latest timing on the battle that will hold trump accountable in court. plus new concerns about his mental acuity, and if you can call it, that and how putin is getting exactly what he paid for. all coming up. stay with us. h us.

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>> tonight we are awaiting special counsel jack smith's response to donald trump's most recent efforts to delay the case against him. yesterday trump's lawyers asked the supreme court to block a lower court ruling that he is not immune from being prosecuted for his efforts to steal the 2020 election while president. trump is trying to stack another delay on top of that legally dubious immunity claim. he wants the supreme court not

to rule on this issue but to wait to rule on it while he tries to get the full 11 judge branch of the appeals court to reconsider their decision. then, and only then, will he go to the supreme court for another appeal. the point is delay, delay, delay. it will all come down to one question. are there enough purchase and trump appointees on the bench, specifically the supreme court bench, willing to collaborate with him and rob voters from knowing if he is guilty or innocent before election day? joining me now, a professor at the university of michigan law school, host of the strict scrutiny map on cast. one thing i've been struggling with here is that to track all this you have to get the procedural weeds, but it's in the procedural weeds where the fate of the country's democratic decision-making is going to live or die. what is donald trump asking for from the supreme court?

now >> he's asking them for a stay, basically, to put the d.c. circuit's ruling on hold. that ruling had allowed the proceedings in the trial court to pick that up again and potentially proceed to trial. he's not technically asking the supreme court to decide the it issue for himself, but it's likely the supreme court will treat trump's application for a stray it's just not application for a stay but if it ground state will also hear the case and scheduled for argument. at least that's my hope. >> what he wants them to do is not. that what he wants them to do to spell this out, he wants to, say pause on that, and we're going to go around, we're going to appeal, we have a three judge panel, now we want all the d.c., all the 11 judges, and they will issue a ruling, then if we lose that we will come back to you but they're not going to let him do that, right? >> i certainly hope not. it's

part of what is so audacious a bit about his ask. he's not just asking for a state that decision. he's also effectively asking the supreme court to modify the d.c.'s work its mandate. the d.c. circuit had said if you, trump, ask the d.c. circuit to review this decision, and then that's not actually going to pause any proceedings in the district court. so it's not just the trump is asking the supreme court to put the d.c. circuit's decision on hold. he's asking them to do that but also modify their mandate so that he can ask the supreme court to issue the decision but also the d.c. circuit as well. >> okay, this is what i mean about the procedural weeds. the three judges on the d.c. circuit thought of this. they knew this. they basically said look, dude, if you want to try to add another step in here, this extra step of review, the clock starts cooking again. it goes back to judge chutkan and she starts the machine back up and you start having pretrial motions and you start going toward a trial.

if you want to do that fine, but it picks up. he's not going to the court stop them from doing that. pause that. indefinitely [laughter] while i appeal. the other question i guess is, what is the timeline for the court's decision? >> we don't really know. the supreme court requested a response by the 20th. they could've done so more quickly. in the past when the trump administration had previously asked the supreme court to allow them to enforce the migrant protection protocol, the supreme coal requested the response between three days. in the waning days when the trump administration bought back the death penalty and as the supreme court to vacate a lot of stays of pauses on execution, the court acted on that within days. the court asked for new -- will file a response before that and that would allow donald trump to file his reply and the supreme court to potentially act on the stay request and potentially treat it as certiorari, within

a week is not before. they certainly did not act as though this is a very timely urgent manner in a way that you would hope they recognize it. >> so that's an important thing while we reading tea leaves. when you think that week does not indicate a court working at the speed and sense of urgency that they need to have. >> it does not. it also isn't necessarily a super long time. but it also is not indicative of a court that understands. this is a pure delay tactic. every week, every day you give him is just increasing the risk that no trial is going to happen before the november election. it's a little ironic because last week, when the supreme court heard the disqualification argument, all we heard about was the courts obsession with the consequences of its ruling. they didn't care about with the text of the constitution said. they didn't care what the history said. all they cared about was the possible implications of their ruling. and now the implications of their lack of urgency here is

increasing the risk that trump is not going to face any accountability in federal court for his actions relating to january 6th before the election. they should be made to own those consequences if they suddenly care about consequences some of the time in cases of ravi donald trump. >> very well said. leah litman, thank you very much. all right, dom, shameful, an american, how vladimir putin's investment in donald trump is paying off. that's next. that's next. some medicines only treat the lows or highs. vraylar treats depressive, acute manic, and mixed episodes of bipolar 1 in adults. proven full-spectrum relief for all bipolar 1 symptoms. and in vraylar clinical studies, most saw no substantial impact on weight. elderly dementia patients have increased risk of death or stroke. call your doctor about unusual changes in behavior or suicidal thoughts. antidepressants can increase these in children and young adults. report fever, stiff muscles or confusion

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>> donald trump is very likely the republican nominee for president. but he's more than just a candidate for all of office. it is actually the president before. people seem to have weirdly blocked it, out maybe because the whole thing was so traumatizing, but i assure you, he was there. he has an actual record. in that record, he did everything in office as president to undermine nato, falsely painting it as a protection racket in which members were not paying him enough tribute. trump even tried to get the u.s. to leave the alliance it founded altogether, according to multiple counts, from people inside his ministration. he also did everything he could to encourage russian aggression against nato. he famously sided with russian president vladimir putin over his intelligence agencies in public about russian sabotage of the 2016 election. in that context what he said this weekend was fully in line with is thinking. though unhinged, even by his standards. >> one of the presidents of a big country stood up and said,

sir, if we don't pay, and were attacked by russia, will you protect? as i said you didn't pay? you delinquent? he said, yes. let's see that happened. no, i would not protect. you in fact, i would encourage them to do what ever the hell they want. you've got to. pay rent pay your bills. >> first of all, when he gives you a yasser story, that didn't happen. but i was surprised at several major news outlets failed to cite a relevant piece of context. putin is desperate to reach a goshute settlement to steal a bunch of ukraine is counting on the republican party in the u.s. to aid him by cutting off aid to the beleaguered army of ukraine, which is literally running out of ammunition. who did point out that context? president biden, and before marks today that called for funding ukraine and blasted trump's comments. >> imagine a former president of

united states saying that. the whole world heard it. the worst thing is, he means it. no other president in our history has ever bow down to a russian dictator. let me say, this is clearly as i can, i never will. for god's sake, it's done, it's shameful, it's dangerous, it's an american. >> and of course, putin made an enormous investment and trump personally, and it's been paying enormous dividends. i personally authorized a operation to support an unstable donald trump in the election. now he runs the republican party in his for all the world acting like a man who wants to continue pleasing his patron putin. he is going to do what he can to not only destroy the nato alliance but to make ukrainian resistance to russian aggression impossible. trump's comments are reverberating around the world. sending europeans into equal parts rage and panic. here at home, the republican party base is under donald trump's thumb. the senate just passed a bill

to send military aid to ukraine, israel, and taiwan. republican house speaker mike johnson says it is trump majority is probably not even gonna take the bill up for a vote in congress. just think about the incentives putin had in 2016, the lengths he went to to help get trump elected, criminal sabotage of an american election. we've talked at length that how desperate trump is to get back in the white house in hopes of eluding jail time, and possibly dying in prison. think about the stakes for putin now is his war drags on and he desperately wants to end it with a russian victory. and he has this one figure in his pocket, singing his tune to half of america's two party system. which is to say, donald trump and vladimir putin need each other. with a coincidence of interests they hope will be stronger than nato, stronger even than american democracy. >> >> (avo) kate made progress with her mental health...

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opinion columnist jamelle bouie compared model trump's feebleness to mentions of the biden's age. jamelle bouie's, new york times opinion columnist, joins me. now i like your column. me i do think that because people don't see him speak at length extemporaneously much anymore, they lost sight of just how completely incoherent he sounds when he does. >> i think that's. right i think trump's great political advantages that weighs out of public view people forget about him. everything they don't like about him is not in their face. but if you just watch recent, his recent appearances at rallies, at public events and such, he is incoherent. he speaks in gibberish. it's very striking to watch.

>> say more about that. he has always been one for tangents. but it is notably harder to make your way through the logic of what he is saying than it was even a few years ago, i find. >> i agree. there is one cliff i watched of him attempting to explain a missile event system. he goes through what is relatively read we build these things from other countries into what took me a sec to figure out what he was saying in sort of the kind of elliptical nonsense trump fashion. i've vented my fair share. i imagine in the moment, especially if you are there as a supporter, i have to mention that someone who doesn't think much about trump and he's plopped and right there and trying to make sense of this, it would be hard.

and certainly, if current president we're speaking in that manner, it would be a legitimate scandal. >> does a lot

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