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tv   Alex Wagner Tonight  MSNBC  February 13, 2024 6:00pm-7:00pm PST

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we have yet another update on that phone and in york special election this evening. steve kornacki once again at the big board. steve, what do you have? >> the things that can tell you. first of all, we are waiting for the first full from nasa. we do have to vote from nasa. you see a ton of red here. i want to show you what that is. though it's almost nothing. this looks like a precinct or two. put this in some perspective, we are expecting tonight about 155,000 votes from the nassau county portion of the district. this is 1000. we are trying to track down exactly where it's from, and i think one thing to keep in mind in nassau is that it could be potentially just a slow process in terms of getting substantial votes out there. here is where we stand right now, because the lion's share of the vote is now in queens here. you can see that is a margin
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still of 20 points for tom suozzi, more than 80% in. the question that we asked tonight, there are two recent elections to reference this this year. one was the 2022 midterms, where the democrats loss at the district, and they only won this queens portion of the district, by four points, and then there is the 2020 presidential election, when joe biden won the district, and once the queen portion of the district by 19 points. this clearly is on track to land somewhere at or above joe biden's performance in 2020. democrats have gotten everything that they wanted out of queens and more. this is a significant path floor suozzi over what the benchmarks were for democrats in queens. it also suggests that this is the crucial part why we are waiting for a chunk of nassau to come in. there was a trend in queens and nassau that was identical between 2020 and 2022. this is, again, 2022, and this is 2020. and on the nasa side at the
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district, in 2020, two republicans won it by ten points, and intend the 20, joe biden won it by five points. so, what is that, that was a swing, ten for the republicans to fight for the democrats, a swing of 15 points. 15 for the democrats, four for the democrats, a swing of 15 points. there was a uniform swing in 2022 between queens and nassau county, and what we have seen tonight, as we had just established, is that queens is on track to be a 2020 style performance. a very democratic friendly performance, and if we see anything approximating a uniformed swing in nassau county, you're looking at that. that's 2020 in a sock on the, that is 22 innocent county. that's a big democratic win. that's a big republican. when the democrats right now, right now, i think i've gotten, as we have said, they have gotten everything they wanted and more in queens, and if we get indication, when we start getting substantial vote on a sauce, the waiting for,
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significant votes, but if we get an indication that anything like that swing is also playing out in nassau county, like it did in 2022, tom suozzi is on his way to victory in this thing. this is a great early start for democrats. we are waiting to see if it is replicated in nassau county. >> steve, to have an indication about her? now there was a lot of talk about the snowstorm, and i will say as a new yorker, it was not much of a snowstorm in my neck of the woods. i wonder if we have any numbers or any kind of metrics by which we can judge? >> yeah, we are expecting, as i have said, a turnout here in the nassau portion, probably somewhere around 155,000 votes. we're expecting somewhere around 30,000 votes in queens. that would be a turnout of 185,000 voters total. by comparison, 2022 midterm, very high interest election, in terms of high turnout, 2022. this would be two thirds of the 2022 total. 2022, there were 270,000 votes cast across at this district, so, frankly, if this thing lands anywhere around 185,000,
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which is what we are expecting right now, i think for a special election, with really nothing else on the ball here, this is a very impressive number, and terms of the total. here i think it's higher than you would have expected. >> certainly, with what we were told was a foreclosed weather event. thank you, steve, we'll be right back with a live report from suozzi have quarters, stay with us. suozzi have quarters, with us.
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got past the vetting process, so, how that works, i'm not sure. but, that was a disgrace, and they did the right thing. getting rid of him. >> voters today in new york's third congressional district deciding who will fill george santos's and the hasse. as we wait for what's the role, in the question now is, how much mr. santos is going to be on voters mind when they go to the ballot box there today? joining me now is emily no, coauthor of portico playbook and a reporter of new york politics. emily, thank you for being here tonight. i wonder how much the shadow george santos is casting over this because, traditionally, i think as political points out, voters tend to penalize the party, the controversy caused the sort of a special election in the first place. the other sense how much people are talking about for santos? >> democrats are talking about george santos a lot more than republicans have been. we have seen tom suozzi, the democratic nominee in the last couple of days, try to pin his
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opponent, the nominee for the gop, as george santos two point oh because he says that she has not been vetted, has not put herself out from the press the faced questions from the public, that detail her position, so as much as the democrats have been talking about your scientists using the strategy of bringing the republicans to him the house republicans of new york especially are trying to distance themselves from santos for the. better part of a year now. they hardly ever speak his name, unless they are asked about him. >> do you have a sense -- we had a little bit a sound from a man out of a polling location at the top of the segment, do you have a sense of how much voters are talking about sentence and or the other issues that candidates have been talking about, whether immigration, u.s. support for israel, the war in gaza and or abortion? >> so, santos does come up from time to time. certainly, people in the district don't associate with him anymore. all are still questioning how it came to be that he was elected off of this.
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he was in office was a long, considering all the election fraud in the mind. you mentioned, illegal immigration, border security, the market crisis, that is what feels like a top of mind for democratic and republican voters. israel, hamas war, because at the large jewish population here. also is a top issue. democrats want abortion to be out there too, and so voters talk about that, but i found that for both parties, the unaffiliated independents, they talk more c about border security. >> can i ask you, i know it sounds like a silly question, but since it's been talked about so long, it's affecting turnout, what was the weather like, emily in the area that you're in a nasa county? >> i spent the better part of the day in the city. as you noted, the snow was not that bad. it was wet and sticky, but here, where a lot of people are driving to the polls, they were accepting free rides from both campaigns to get to the polls. certainly, republicans are most
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likely to be day of voters, and they were very dependent, the party was, on people getting out and casting their ballots there, but the crowds were out. a nassau county executive here, republican, who was a surrogate for mazi pilip make sure the roads were as clear as they could be. we also saw a republican pack supporting pilip, paying for plowing around republican heavy districts as well. the snow is a factor, but it was not as big as of a factor, and perhaps, democrats and republicans have feared. >> emily, as much as we try to draw inferences about the national presidential race in november, it's probably worth noting that neither trump nor biden was welcomed, if you will in this district as a surrogate, that endorsement was not something sought for by either republicans or democrats, is that right? >> that is exactly right. neither of the likely potential candidates is very popular here in this moderate sentence,
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independent kind of this year. suozzi make sure to keep is distant from biden. he asked the president to stay away. he was fundraising not too far away, but he certainly was not rallying for suozzi. mazi pilip in the final days reached out to trump and said that she would welcome his help, but he did not show up. they don't speak about trump, that the republicans from the state, unless reporters asked them directly about it. that could mean a lot in terms of what the presidential election in november says. this is a bellwether, but it's not the most perfect bellwether, because a lot of suburbs in the state, in particular, are leaning more democratic. long island as swung the other way, and it's becoming more republican. we'll see what happens today with the results, but that is sort of an outlier, when we consider what the race pretends for the future. >> all right, emily ngo ngo, straight from the suozzi headquarters. a lot happening this evening, thank you for your time, emily. coming up, the supreme court was special counsel jack smith
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the response of donald trump's latest bid for immunity for criminal prosecution. just how much later could this push the start of trump's federal criminal trial in washington, d.c.? plus, we'll have more results when your special election as they come in, stay with us. they come in, stay with us. -thanks mom. -yeah. (♪♪) (♪♪) you were made to dream about it for years. we were made to help you book it in minutes. ( ♪ ♪ ) start your day with nature made. the #1 pharmacist recommended vitamin and supplement brand. - [female narrator] they line up by the thousands. each one with a story that breaks your heart. like ravette... every step, brought her pain. their only hope: mercy ships.
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or high blood potassium. ask your doctor if entresto is right for you. i'm daniel lurie and i've spent my career fighting poverty, helping people right here in san francisco. i'm also a father raising two kids in the city. deeply concerned that city hall is allowing crime and lawlessness to spread. now we can do something about it by voting yes on prop e. a common sense solution that ensures we use community safety cameras to catch repeat offenders and hold them accountable.
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vote yes on e. >> one week from today, next tuesday, four pm eastern on the dot. that is the deadline chief justice john roberts gave special counsel jack smith today to respond to don trump's
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latest bid for immunity. yesterday trump filed an emergency application challenging a federal appeals court ruling that said he was not immune from criminal prosecution. trump's request now to the supreme court is to effectively freeze his election interference criminal trial. his lawyers argue the special counsel seeks urgently to force president trump into a months- long criminal trial. effectively sidelining him and preventing him from campaigning against the current president, to whom the special counsel ultimately reports, president biden. joining me now, the brilliant barbara mcquade, former u.s. attorney for the eastern district of michigan. barbara, thank you for being here. i'm not a lawyer, as i say frequently, but the supreme court giving jack smith a week to respond to all of this seems like the court is not moving so efficiently, shall we say. am i wrong here? >> no. i had the same reaction. it does not suggest that they
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are acting with a lot of urgency. but of course jack smith could file a response before a week goes by. if they're not working on it right now, they're doing it wrong. they knew this was coming. they knew trump would be filing his request by monday. i have to think that they are crossing the tees and dotting the eyes at this moment and will likely beat the deadline by quite a bit. >> assuming jack smith files before the line on the 20th, what do you expect in terms of indications for how the court is thinking of trump's appeal here? >> you know, it's difficult to say because they can go in a lot of different directions. the thing that they could do that would, i think, give us the best stance, is to simply deny the stay, treated as a petition for certiorari review, and to say we're going to let the lower court decision to stand. that would be a loud response
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to what they think of it. on the other hand, they could decide they want to grant a stay, they are going to let donald trump even take it to the full court of appeals below, and then before the u.s. supreme court, that would be the other extreme suggesting he's on a very slow boat. in that case i can't imagine the trial occurring before the election. what is more likely somewhere in between, that they do decide to take it up, and they do so on a more expedited basis. if they do that, i think a decision could be made within a month or two, and get this case back on track for trial by summertime. >> can we talk a bit about that? if they take a month or two to effectively unfreeze the case, to put it in layman's terms, a, what's your expectation about the alvin bragg case, which is kind of on hold as the feds work out the timetable for their election interference case, and then be, is the supreme court
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going to consider the implications of, as trump lawyers point out, having an election interference campaign it case in the middle of a campaign? >> in terms of coordinating the other cases, i think it will work out fine. we've got a hearing in new york on thursday. we'll know more about the trial there. but march 25th appears to be the trial date for the new york hush money case. that trial would last more than a couple of weeks. that will be long over. i think that puts the federal election interference case on track for a trial to start early summer, maybe around june 1st. with regard to your other question about whether this is a legitimate art argument that a candidate for president needs to be campaigning, all defendants would have that argument. everybody's job. everybody has important things to do. and so i don't think that that should interfere. i think a trial gets set by a court at its own pace, in the idea that i have more important things to do is not part of the consideration that this court should be looking at. >> we're going to have more intel on the alvin bragg case.
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judge engoron is also supposed to rule and a.g. james civil fraud case. do you have any expectation there, given the combativeness between the judge and trump's defense team in the last week? >> i don't know. there has been this reporting about the judge asking for additional information about a perjury charge, with allen weisselberg. so that has delayed his decision here. difficult to know how things are going to come up. but in light of the summary judgment decision the judge engoron issued, it seems to be very likely that he will find a verdict in favor of the attorney general and we will see some big numbers. >> big numbers. do by friday. barbara mcquade, our expert. thank you so much for your time tonight, barb. really appreciate it. that is our show for tonight. msnbc's coverage of new york special election continues with the last word with my friend, lawrence o'donnell. good evening, lawrence. >> good evening. alex i have to have

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