we'll be taking our breaking news coverage of the special election for new york's third congressional district. polls closed exactly an hour ago in this highly competitive race, at least thought to be highly competitive to replace the formerly expelled congressman george santos. the race too early to call for thomas suozzi, and republican mazi pilip. it is a race that could shrink the republican margin by one. there could be one more democrat in the house of representatives tomorrow. the house of representatives this evening voted articles of

impeachment against homeland security secretary mayorkas by only one vote. that's one of the indicators of how important this is. we're going to go straight to steve kornacki with the latest. steve, what do you have? >> we just got some big news, lawrence. which we've been talking about nassau county, we've been waiting for results. we've got a huge batch of results from nassau county and you can see suddenly the picture emerging in nassau. suozzi jumps out here. we expect the early returns to be favorable to suozzi because they're the early votes, absentee votes. then the election vote which will come in from this wave from this point on probably more republican friendly. the big picture here favorable.

with queens potentially all in we're trying to nail that down exactly. and now a huge, huge chunk of nassau county and leading here about 17,000 points. here's basically how to look at i think, lawrence, the question coming in tonight was this district, the third district of new york had behaved two very different ways politically in recent elections. in the 2020 presidential election this district voted for joe biden, the democrat voted for him by 8 points. and then in the 2022 mid-term elections, this district, of course, elected george santos the republican, by a margin of 8 points. from democrat by 8 to republican by 8, this is one of only nine districts in the country that voted for biden and then voted republican in 2022. the question coming in tonight is are we going to see results

that looks like 2020 or more like 2022. queens has given us a huge, huge indication here what the answer is because the city of new york is indicating all of the vote may well be in now in queens. we're trying to nail that down. let me just show you in queens what it looks like. this is a margin of 23.6 points right now for tom suozzi. now wrewe say is it 2020 or 2022? the year 2022 the year george santos won this district queens was only democratic by 4 points. by 2020 when joe biden won in this district queens was democratic by 19 points. we're getting a result ow of queens tonight very consistent with 2020 and totally at odds with 2022. with just about all of queens in right now, the only question is nassau going to do something

radically and dramatically different than queens county has? and so far with this batch of early votes and absentee ballots, we think a lot of this is, the answer doesn't look like it's doing anything different than queens, again the question we're asking does this look more like 2022 when the republicans won or more like 2020 when the democrats won? the nassau part of the district in 2020 voted for biden, the democrat by 5 points. and in 2022 the nassau part of the district voted for george santos, the republican, by 10 points. you're seeing again this may be more democratically friendly because of the absentee. right now tom suozzi is leading this thing by 15 points. remember biden wop by 5. right now suozzi is up 15. at this point if you're pilip.

a lead of 16,000 and change in votes for suozzi. if you're pilip and trying to wip this district you've already fallen way behind. you need to find a way with about half the vote outstanding in nassau county, somehow that vote has got to come in so overwhelmingly republican she finds a way to go from 15 points down in the county to somehow winning it. it is hard to see, frankly, from this point. every return we've seen tonight has been extremely favorable for democrats, and i think if you're a republican, extremely disappointing for them. and i'm just looking over here right now. we do have a new characterization from our decision desk. our decision desk is now saying that tom suozzi, the democrat, is leading in this race. that's the new characterization from our decision desk from all the factors we've been talking

about here, lawrence. >> and steve, is there even a mathematical possibility remaining for this gap to close? >> it's very hard to see. i can tell you what i think we're waiting for right now is, again, let's just look inside nassau county right here keeping in mind this is going to be at least 80% of the total vote in the district tonight. again, we suspect a lot of this is the early vote and a lot of this is the mail vote. usually democrats do great with the mail in vote, pretty good with the early vote and republicans do good with the same day vote. we're looking at more returns of ballots cast today, same day votes, election day votes. but they, lawrence, would have to be so overwhelmingly republican in numbers that i'm just trying to run them through my head right now, it's hard to imagine the numbers of pilip would have to hit to wipeout the

deficit she faces right now. if you're a democrat right now, i think you've said you've been in contact with some. if they're feeling happy they have good reason to. >> i can tell you according to my texts from new york state democratic officials, they've been confident for quite a while. they actually are expecting tom suozzi to come out to those microphones soons, which is why we have a camera on it. they are not waiting for us to make the official call. he could be out there any minute. but as we keep the camera on that position where tom suozzi may be speaking any moment now and claiming victory before we can certainly certify it with what we have here in terms of our returns, steve, this overperformance democratic party

officials said they have been seeing overperformance in every single bit of information they got today starting earlier in the day in everything they were looking at. >> yeah, and i think one thing we can say, too, is this is continuing a pattern that we've seen over the last number of years. certainly in the trump era where when you're talking about special elections, this is sort of random election in the middle of february, there's nothing else on the ballot, people aren't used to voting in the middle of february. it's a different electorate, tends to be much smaller than you're going to get in a general election, it tends to have a different composition. one thing we've seen as a pattern that emerges is democrats have been doing to be

probably between donald trump and joe biden a rematch. and the question really is this. when you're seeing in the polling right now when you poll trump versus biden there's a lot of polls that have them tied and our own nbc poll shows donald trump ahead of joe biden. that trump lead what's that's coming from is polls of registered voters are capturing voters who are less politically engaged, voters who probably aren't going to turn out and vote in a special election, and probably only vote once every four years in a presidential election if that. it really is the question right now. if you look at these special elections, it's clear which party is more engage and more motivated to get out there for these random elections that don't take place at a normally scheduled time. it's the democrats. there is absolutely when it comes to these special elections enthusiasm for democrats. the question starting to form as we look towards november is those voters who aren't participating here but we're

finding in polling are a little bit more friendly to tump trump, are they going to materialize on election day? because that's what republicans are going to have to count on here it looks like or likely going to be counting on, a voter who has not been participating that much in elections like tonight's and probably not in the mid-terms probably in 2022 but turning out in '24 and turning out for donald trump. that's one of the things being picked up in the polls that show the race tied and showed trump ahead. what democrats are hoping f is that doesn't quite materialize. and they're saying if it doesn't, they're proving in these special elections their voters are this motivated. >> well, those republican votes did not materialize apparently in donald trump's hometown, his home borough of queens as you were reporting earlier. steve, that's where donald trump is from, where he was born, where he grew up, and the votes weren't there for republicans today. steve, we're going to come back to you as soon as there's more

numbers through the hour. joining us now is simon rosenberg. simon, we're keeping an eye on the microphone there because tom suozzi is not going to wait for us. that's our information, anyway. they have very sophisticated digital and statistical tracking in the new york state democratic party, tracking this all day long. i've been in touch with many of those people as the day has proceeded and they have been confident at every step of this and where we are tonight, and you have been telling people a version of what steve was saying about polls, how the polls are capturing people now for the presidential race who might not be turning out for that presidential race. and that's one of the elements that makes the current presidential campaign polls less interesting to be staring at because they are predicting an

action so far from where these voters live tonight that many of them just might not even show up and vote, but they in effect cast their votes in these polls. >> listen, just to remind everybody we had a great election in 2018 and a great election in 2020 where we took away the presidency in the senate and house from the republicans, and then usually what happens is the party in power loses seats? right, you lose mid-term elections, you lose these kind of off-year and special elections, and the exact opposite has been happening, something really dramatic and historic has beenae which is that we won those races in 2018 and now we're winning in 2022, 2023, and 2024. democrats keep overperforming

expectation and republicans keep struggling. it's the central reason why i'm so optimistic about our chances in 2024 because when voters vote, we win. and when voters vote, they lose. >> and this is the kind of congressional district, suburban congressional district that joe biden has to win in places like pennsylvania, for example, that can give him the electoral college. >> listen, the big news tonight is if we take a district we lost by 7.5 points last time in 2022 and flip it and what could be more than a little bit based on the numbers we're seeing tonight, all those republicans in the biden districts, the 17, 18 -- i forget the exact number -- who won those districts in 2022 are terrified because this is the kind of district republicans have to hold. and as steve pointed out this is

looking a lot more like 2020 than 2022 in this district. what's also important as steve pointed out, and steve's analysis is terrific. is that you forget the only part of the country where we didn't do very well were new york and california last time. in 2022 we did very well in the battleground states. we gained ground in arizona, colorado, minnesota, michigan, new hampshire, and pennsylvania. and so if we're now repairing the losses and the struggle we have in these two big states, california and new york, and start winning those house races, it means the chances of us flipping the house in 2024 and winning the presidency is much higher than it would have been i think a few days ago. >> when you look at this race tonight with tom suozzi in there, if you lived through this campaign in new york, your television was bombarded with the democratic ads, the suozzi campaign ads which were about abortion rights and preserving

abortion rights. and then the republican ads were all about the southern border. those two issues went to war on television in big budget campaigns, and one of those issues won big. >> another warning sign for a party that is broken right now, the republican party. because what we know from history is that the immigration and the border never rise up to a top tier issue. they don't win general elections on immigration and the border. they may win primary races. if you remember in 2018 trump spent the last month of the 2018 mid-term cycle talking about caravans and invasion at the border, and we won that election by 8.5 points. that's because for most voters thereare things that matter more. it's just the economy, health care, abortion rights, reproductive rights other things matter more. and when republicans have historically tried today turn

immigration into a general election issue, they've repeatedly failed. i think republicans -- if i can say one more thing quickly i think the danger for the republican party is that all these talking points they have about biden and the democrats evaporated in the last couple of months, the economy is strong, inflation is way down, crime is way down across the country. we're not going through a crime wave in the united states. we produce more domestic oil and renewables every year. they lost on it tonight and they also grossly mismanaged the issue and handed it to us last week. all of their advantages on all the major issues are evaporating right now, and they're in a lot of trouble, i think, in 2024. >> so simon, what we also saw here in the democratic party was flawless teamwork and organization. governor hochul endorsing a

candidate who ran against her, and tom suozzi ran what was for the governor a nasty campaign against her, not the kind of thing people expect to see in a democratic primary. she endorsed him. hakeem jeffries endorsed him, they got together with that one candidate early, and they all unified around that one candidate, which is where they obviously are with an incumbent president. >> so i know -- i've gotten to know tom suozzi during this rain. my organization raised over $100,000 for him and helped direct thousands of volunteers to this race because i knew how important this was going to be for the psyche of the democratic party and for hakeem jeffries and the new leadership of the house. this is a huge win for us and big boost of confidence for us as we head into the cycle. i want to say tom suozzi is a great candidate. he worked his butt off, involved

the grass roots which allowed tens of thousands of people from all over the country to become integrated into his campaign. tom ran a great race. he brought incredible intensity. he knew how important this was for new york, new york democrats who had been struggling in recent years. this is just like the wins we had in florida in jacksonville and this house district we won in orlando, tom keen, a few weeks ago. democrats have started repairing the damage done in recent elections. we just did a lot of repairing tonight in new york, and i think it's going to make a lot of new yorkers really happy. >> joininguts now senior national political reporter for nbc news at tom suozzi's headquarters. what is the situation there now? >> reporter: lawrence, you can hear the cheering behind me at the watch party.

they're feeling very good watching the returns come in. the queens numbers came in exceptionally strong. he did 20 points better nan the candidate in 2022 did against george santos when he ultimately lost the race. he has what appears to be a commanding lead. mazi pilip is speaking on the screen behind me. i toept know what he's saying but she's clearly the underdog in this race. tom suozzi has the lead right now that has a lot of people at this party feeling very good. >> there's an indication he'll be speaking very soon without waiting necessarily for networks like us to call it. >> reporter: yeah, that's right. we do expect tom suozzi to speak soon and be introduced by a local democratic party chair. this is comeback bid for suozzi.

he has deep roots in this area and a very good name. >> we can now project tom suozzi as the winner. nbc news is projecting that tom suozzi has won or will win new york's third congressional district. let's go back to steve kornacki at the big board. >> yeah, lawrence, we were saying it without saying it i think a few minutes ago when we were talking. but basically what we were talking about is what happened. we were waiting to get an update from nassau county. we just got another batch. we were sitting at ha% before, now almost up at 60 with the batch that came in two minutes ago. you can see suozzi's lead earlier here was a little higher. with 60% of the vote in with

suozzi to be 10 points ahead in the nassau part of this district, chis the overwhelming share in this district. democrat leading by 10 put that in perspective in this section of the district in 2022 the mid-term elections when george santos won, santos won nassau county by 10 points. that is a swing tonight. >> let me just interrupt you there for one second, steve, to announce republican candidate mazi pilip has conceded the race. she has conceded to tom suozzi tonight in the third congressional district, so that means the democrats have added one democrat, probably tom suozzi will be sworn in tomorrow at the house of representatives. go ahead, steve. >> just the magnitude of the victory for suozzi it's not just the fact he won and he won in a district republicans had won by 8 points in the 2022 mid-terms, this is going to be a big win

for suozzi tonight this is 20-point swing from republicans winning nassau by 10 to suozzi leading nassau by 10. any democratic victory in nassau county is huge because again this was 10 points for republicans in 2022. and what we saw in dweenz earlier, we talked about this, this may be all the votes for queens. we're trying to confirm, make sure there's nothing forgotten there. but this portion of the district, this is 23.5 point advantage for tom suozzi here. this is almost 20 points north of their performance in queens. this is massive, massive overperformance by suozzi relative. this is 13-point advantage for him right now district-wide. again, santos, the republican, won the district by 8 points.

biden, the democrat, in 2020 won the district by 8 points. this could end up being a double digit suozzi victory, possibly even exceeding what joe biden did here four years ago. >> steve, what does it tell us about turnout? >> well, let's see what the final number comes in. just looking here at queens county. we've been expecting this number it looks like if this is the final number here, it's going to land about 24,500 give or take. i think we remember expecting a little bit higher in queens, but then you take a look over here, this is over 90,000 votes out of nassau county with 60% in. so this number is going to rise substantially here. this could end up being about to, 155,000. one of the things this may tell us -- and we'll have to look closer when we can see the town by town results, get a better sense exactly where the vote's coming from, i think there are some differences here between the queens portion -- demographically between the queens portion of the district

and the nassau portion of the district. of course the north shore here of long island it's very wealthy, lots of college degrees. a lot of the towns along the north shore and long island in particular are just overwhelmingly democrat. when you talk about democrats overperforming in the special election there's a big gap of college edge gap between college educated and non-college educated. that portion of the district it may be a situation where that particular segment and demographic is so jazzed about turning out for democrats in these special elections, these off-year elections there may be -- the balance here between nassau and queens may be more tilted towards nassau than we've seen before. again, we got a bit of an update here.

now we're up to 66%, two thursday of the vote in nassau. again, the same day vote the margin should tick down a bit. you're still looking here at 8.2%, 8-point lead here for tom suozzi in nassau and still 11 points ahead and change of mazi pilip here. i think it may be the turnout relatively speaking was heavier in the nassau part of the district than in the queens part of district. a question we want to look at then is where particularly in nassau was that more pronounced? democrats, we talk about the college educated voters becoming more and more democratic, and becoming more and more enthusiastic about voting in these elections. >> steve, you couldn't ask for a more publicized special election. it's understandable for republicans in special elections in the past if they weren't even

aware one was happening in their district. but george santos flaming out the way he did, getting expelled from the house of representatives, brought attention to this race before the candidates were announced. >> no question about it. and i think also the context that this race was playing out in i think got this national attention, too, from the standpoint of this. in 2022 mid-term elections we talk about how the democrats did better than expected but didn't do good enough to keep the house of representatives. remember the balance was 232 from republicaned and you can make a case in the 2022 mid-terms the entire reason the democrats didn't do better and hold was long island and new york state. this district is a perfect example where democrats thought they were going to win in 2022.

and if you'd shown them the results they would assume they were winning. this is district joe biden won by 8 points, and then democrats lost it to george santos in 2022. this district down here the fourth district of new york. also nassau county, long island, joe biden won by 14 points, and then they elected a republican in 2022. there are also two other districts in eastern long island that were republican held, that were thought to be competitive. republicans ended up winning them very comfortably. all four of these long island districts ended up going republican. democrats thought they had a shot at them, and you add in there were two other districts in new york state. one of them shaun patrick maloney, the national committee that organizes the house democratic campaign effort, he lost his own district. democrats never saw that coming, and there's one more seat in the syracuse area. republican held, the republican wasn't running again, the democrats thought they could

pick it up, they lost there. all those seats i just described if the democrats had won five of those in 2022, while they overperformed almost everywhere else nationally, they would have held the house of representatives. so this was long island, new york, it was one of the big exceptions in the 2022 mid-terms to what was otherwise a pretty strong night for democrats. as we say, it may have cost the democrats a shot at actually retaining control of the house of representatives. so i think that made this race more significant because this was the place where the red wave did hit in 2022. the red wave hit these congressional elections, and frankly there's been red waves in local elections in nassau county and long island for a couple years right now. the county executive job in nassau county, the democrats have won it in 2017. the republicans won that back in 2021. there's a county legislature, the county commissioners in some places, a county legislature in

nassau county republicanpens have gained control of. the trend in nassau and long island has been locally certainly towards republicans and at the congressional level heavily towards republicans. so democrats to be able to go in that district, a district that had flipped to republicans in 2022, a district in an area that's been strending republican, a district that may have cost them at a shot at controlling the house in the 2022 mid-terms, to go in there and to win it back -- and to win it back as we're saying there's a good possibility here this could end up a double digit victory for suozzi. this could end up a higher margin here for him than joe biden got in the 2020 election. for democrats to win back all the ground they lost here between 2022 and more that's something they're going to be bragging about. the suburbs, new york is not going to be a competitive state we don't think in the fall but the suburbs and swing states are very possibly going to decide

this election as the democrats are going to be able to take a lot of bragging rights out of this and say, look, we just won some pretty hostile suburbs and look for that to do it nationally. >> steve, there's pretty big cheers going up at suozzi headquarters as he approaches the microphone for what is going to be a victory speech. we'll listen to the newly elected democratic congressman for the third district in new york, tom suozzi. those signs are not exactly where the campaign would like them right now. >> signs down. thank god. let me just enjoy this for one more minute, okay?

[ chanting "suozzi" ] >> you're supporting genocide! [ chanting "suozzi" ] >> okay, all right.

despite all the attacks, despite all the lies about tom suozzi being the godfather of the migrant crisis, about sanctuary suozzi, despite the dirty tricks, despite the vaunted nassau county republican machine, we won.

i love america. this race was fought amidst a closely divided electorate, much like our whole country. this race was centered on immigration and the economy, much like the issues all across our country. we won this race, we -- you won this race. because we addressed the issues, and we found a way to bind our divisions. what we just saw with the protests tonight, okay, there

are divisions in our country where people can't even talk to each other. all they can do is yell and scream at each other. and that's not the answer to the problems we face in our country. the answer is to try and bring people of good will together to try and fiend that common ground. we won this campaign because the people of queens and long island. let's hear it for queens! let's hear it for long island! 80-20. for the people of long island and queens, they're sick and

tired of the political bickering. they've had it. they want us to come together and solve problems, so now we have to carry the message of this campaign to the united states congress and across our entire country. it's time -- it's time to move beyond the petty partisan bickering and the finger pointing. it's time to focus on how to solve the problems. it's time to get to work on immigration, on israel, on combating putin, on helping the middle class. and by getting the state and local tax deduction back. let's send a message to our friends running the congress these days stop running around for trump and start running the

country. it's time to find common ground and start delivering to the people of the united states of america. the people are watching. they want us to start working together. so the message is very clear. either get onboard or get out of the way. >> to the people in this room and to our friends throughout this whole campaign, thank you so much for sticking with me. we've all seen -- we've all seen what politics has become, and this campaign, we try to give a vision of what it could be.

let's take our country back from the dividers. you know that no external force is ever going to beat the united states of america. the only way we're going to be in trouble is if we let ourselves continue to be divided from within, so this whole campaign, the whole campaign has been about how do we communicate to people that we can be better if we work together to try and solve the problem we face in our country? and that's the message -- that's the message that resonate would the people in this campaign. this was a really tough campaign. and we only won because of that message and because of all of you. so, listen, you want to take the country back from people who try to divide it? are you with me in that fight? are we going to keep on working until we hold politicians accountable when they just try to use issues for weaponization

to try and destroy the other guys instead of actually solving the problems to make people's lives better. that's what we've got to do in this country. i got to thank a whole bunch of people. i'm never going to be able to thank everybody by name, anthony. so let me just be very clear, okay? i want to start by thanking the chairman of the nassau county democratic party, jay jacobs. and the nassau county democratic party, i want to thank the chairman of the queens republican party, greg meeks -- did i say republican? i don't want to thank the chairman of the queens republican party. i want to thank the chairman of the queens democratic party, greg meeks, and the queens democratic party for selecting me as the candidate to run in

this race. i am so grateful for this honor. i want to say this is the best campaign i've ever been involved with in my entire life. it's been amazing. i've got to thank my best friend, the best partner anybody could ever have in their life who's put up with so much, let's hear it, and our daughter caroline who worked so much for the campaign, michael and joseph, i've got to thank our awesome campaign staff,

unbelievable. led by john, our campaign manager. my advisor for the past 23 years. and the great nick ryan. i can't go through everybody on the team. you're all fantastic. you're all awesome. i've got to thank the people whose backs really carried a large part of this campaign, my friends, the men and women of labor. i will have your back the way you've had my back. i'm so grateful to all of you. i can't believe how much work everybody did from the very beginning to the end of this campaign up until just a few hours ago. i am so grateful to all of you. i want to thank the grass roots folks all over the country and here on long island and new

york, the greatest campaign. we did 2 million phone calls. hundreds of thousands of postcard, tens of thousands of texts, 150,000 door knockers. this is amazing how many people contributed to our success at the grass roots level. i mean it's so humbling to me to have so many people helping this campaign. i want to thank the dccc for the party ship they showed in this race. i want to thank the jewish voters in my district who stuck with me. i want to thank the chinese americans who helped me in this. i want to thank the korean americans who stuck with me in this race. i want to thank the indian

americans who stuck with me in this race. i want to thank the pakistani and the bangladeshis who stuck with me in this race despite how difficult it was throughout this process. and the muslim community that stuck with me in this race. and it wasn't easy. i want to thank the african americans who stuck with me in this race. i want to thank the latino americans who stuck with me in this race. i want thank the white irish and italian guys who stuck with me in this race. i want to thank the women that stuck with me in this race. i've got to thank glen cove. i'm so grateful for glen cove. i want to thank the grass roots organizations from womens groups to gun safety groups to -- to

the environmental groups to the get out the vote groups, to good government groups. i'm going to leave somebody out i know. i want to thank my regional captains. i want to thank all the democratic clubs that helped me in this race. this campaign, this is just an awesome, awesome experience. and the whole thing is that we took all these different folks with all these different positions and all these different issue and we said we can make our country a better place. and the way to make our country a better place is not by attacking each other and tearing people down the way to make our country a better place is to try and find common ground. it's not easy to do. it's hard to do.

you can't solve the complicated problems of our country with a tweet or with a press conference or from one speech. it takes hard work over a long period of time with people of good will who want to sit down with each other across from the table and say i may not agree with you on this and twr may not agree with you on that, but, listen, if we work together we can make everything better for everybody. >> thank you very much, everybody. i really appreciate you. i'm so happy. >> and you have just heard from the newest member of the house of representatives, tom suozzi, who will be returning to his old job there. he serveled three terms as a member of the house of representatives representing that same district. simon rosenberg is back with us. simon, there were a lot of winning sounding messages that we heard in there for democratic campaigns. >> yeah, listen, just how great was it to hear just that

expression of joy and happiness. and thank you for letting it roll, lawrence. you don't get to see that very often in a time of rancor and fighting we have in the country. and it's great to see, and i'm proud of tom and the team who got a big win tonight. let me say three things in responding to your question first. one is, yeah, i mean, look, the basic dynamic of this election, the basic where we are is that joe biden is a good president. the country is far better off today. the democratic party is strong and winning elections all across the country, and they have trump who's the most unfit guy to run for president in all of american history. and we should be very optimistic about that. and what we heard tonight is we litigated some of the toughest. this was an election hard fought, where republicans, you know, continue to make tough arguments against the democratsch and we've been told by many people who would take us out and be debilitating and we weren't going to be able to

overcome. here's suozzi tonight winning in a district he lost by 8 points winning in a district. they're running faster and faster, harder and harder into maga. maga is failed politic. it lost in 2018, lost in 2020, lost in 2023 and it's losing now again in 2024. the speaker is blowing it, and he's making huge mistakes not just for the country but for his party. and then finally something that tom said i think is really important for everyone to hear tonight is that we're just hungrier than they are. we're fighting harder than are. we made 2 million calls. we had hundreds of thousands of door knocks, hundreds of thousands of texts, hundredps of thousands of postcard, tens of thousands of people all over the country participated asked contributed to this victory because what's happening in the

democratic party we're building the biggest political machine we've ever had because there's millions of people getting up every day and deciding they're not going to let democracy slip through on their watch. they're making the phone calls, doing the texts, and we're kicking their ass all over the country again and again. it's the people in our party who made sure they're going to make sure our democracies and freedoms don't slip away. this was their win too in addition to tom and the house democrats. >> simon rosenberg, thanks very much for joining our coverage of this election tonight. the democrats in the house of representatives woke up this morning with 212 members. they will go to sleep tonight with 213. we're going to fit in a quick break here and come back to our breaking election coverage. r breaking election coverage

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and we have another big win for democrats in our breaking election news coverage tonight, and this is in the important swing state of pennsylvania. democrats in pennsylvania will keep control of the state legislature after democrat and local school board member jim -- won a special election in bucks county in the suburbs of north philadelphia. jim's win will give the democrats a one-seat majority in the pennsylvania state legislature. steve kornacki is back with us at the big board covering the big race in new york's third

congressional district. steve, these two wins, this is suburban philadelphia, a win for democrats and this is suburban new york. these are the places that the democrats have to win in november for joe biden to be re-elected. >> yeah, i think that's one of the reasons why this new york race was such an interesting and closely watched race nationally. it's not obviously that new york state is going to be expected to be a swing state in november, but the type of political terrain we're talking about here is going to be the type of political terrain that decides a lot of these swing states. and again, the fact we've been talking about this, the fact this unlike a lot of other suburban areas swung to the republicans in 2022 in the mid-term elections, this is what republicans in 2022 were expecting to happen in suburbs all across the country. it didn't happen in a lot of them, but it did happen in nassau county, did happen in this district and other districts around it. it went for voting for joe biden to voting to other republicans, and again now district wide

we've got 87% of the vote in here, and this is an 8.5 point lead suozzi has over pilip. nassau county close to 90% there. you see the suozzi margin has shrunk over to pilip but still leads by 5.5 points. again what we're looking at here, lawrence, is this a lead right now for suozzi district wide, it is probably going to tighten because the remaining vote is probably going to be same day. biden won this district by 8 in 2020. george santos, the republican won it by 8 in 2022. looks like tom suozzi basically is going to win probably by 8 points. one other thing we were looking for remember there's the queens portion of the district and the nassau portion here so far. with votes still to come in nassau county, nassau is a county for 84% of the vote in this special election. in 2022 it counted for 82.

in 2020 it counted under 80% in this district. the idea here, again, democrats especially in these suburbs with high concentrations of college degrees, democrats have been doing really well both in terms of turnout and in terms of margin. the fact so much of the vote is coming from nassau county where you find those places suggest really those kind of suburbs are on fire for democrats right now. >> steve, what you've identified in this district is something if the democrats can duplicate, there's a solid half a dozen districts around the country that they could flip the same way and get control of the house of representatives in the next election. steve kornacki, thank you very much for that. we'll be right back after this break. that. we'll be right back after this break. heck my fico® score, but i can also shop for credit cards, and i've learned about ways to save on my car insurance. it's super easy to use and you should download it today. see all you can do with the free experian app. download it now. nexium 24hr prevents heartburn acid for twice as long as pepcid. get all-day and all-night heartburn acid prevention

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two for two. two special elections tonight, two democratic wins. despite all the lies about the tom