about -- 40 seconds. >> from the onset, it is the response and reaction that nex was being bullied for an entire year. and even in that interview, with that buddy, cam nex said they didn't record it because they knew they wouldn't do anything about that. ryan walters's act the top of that, creating that culture and environment. secondly, when this incident happened and this attack happened, no authorities were cold, no paperwork was put through. now the same ease report as living in limbo and the police are reporting on the close of death for a medical examiner. it is fraught with problems at this point. >> tough conversation, thank you so much for sharing it with me. that will do it for us for this edition alex witt of reports. elsie you tomorrow at one pm. up next jen psaki and jonathan capehart kick off our south carolina primary coverage right now. ry coverage right now.

okay, here we go. i'm jen psaki in washington, along with my friend and colleague jonathan capehart. this is -- hello, good to be here with you. this is msnbc's special coverage of the south carolina republican primary. >> right now voters are gathering and schools and churches across the palm meadows state to cast their ballots for who they would like to see as the 2024 republican presidential nominee. we are just three hours away from polls closing in south carolina. and one hour away from our first round of exit polls, which will give us a window into who showed up to vote and why. >> all interesting stuff. south carolina, important to note, an open primary. as long as a voter didn't participate in that democratic primary earlier this month,

they can vote today. one thing i'm going to have my eye on here is what the anti trump vote might look like. as we saw in iowa and new hampshire, trump didn't win 100% of the vote. a lot of people turned out that may have been people protest voting. we'll see what that says. but it also could be a sign of trump's vulnerability among moderates in a general election. but right now in south carolina, donald trump, to be clear, has a very, very large lead. and all the polls. recent polling shows the former president up nearly 30 points. this is a state he really hasn't been to all that much in that lead up to the primary. earlier this afternoon, nikki haley was doing what you do as a candidate. she was at a polling place in south carolina, donald trump was speaking at cpac and maryland. and it was a little crazy. >> a little crazy. i was going to say, even for him. time isn't the only thing he hasn't spent much of in south

carolina. trump's campaign has also avoided investing a lot of money and the state, spain only about $1 million on ads. meanwhile nikki haley has been barnstorming south carolina with speeches and spending. she outspent trump on the airwaves by more than $10 million. >> she has money. we'll be talking about that and they show as well and how it will keep her in the state. i should also mention, this is her home state. it's a bloody nose. that she was elected governor here twice. it is her home court, her home field. whatever sports analogy -- you love sports. >> i so do. >> but she doesn't seem to have the advantage that typically comes with that. with it being her home field. it kind of defies logic when you lay it out on paper and some ways. she's a young, conservative former governor of the state, who spent big on time and money -- this should pay light up for south carolina republican voters, to keep the sport and

knowledge is going. but if tonight goes as the polls are trained, jake this is a reminder that this year is not about what looks good on paper, it is about the staying power of donald trump. >> it is important to remember, the backdrop to all of this as how trump is running his reelection campaign. just hours ago, as we've been reporting, he gave a speech where he laid out his incredibly dark, dire vision of our country. as ocean that comes on the heels of his comments last night trivializing black voters, with a disgusting and racist stereotype. yet as with saying, time and time again, this is what republican primary voters want. >> where nate another donald trump for years. >> we are in a mess right now. we need him to pull us out of this whole person can into. >> every time they indict him again, it makes me go harder for him. >> way will wait and see what the numbers show us when they start to come and and just a

few hours from now, but so far nikki haley says no matter what the results show tonight, she's staying in this race. >> we are going to be voting, campaigning all day today. and we are going to keep all the way to super tuesday. that as far as i've thought in terms of going forward. with placed at buys, we've gone and put out the public schedule of where we'll be. we'll keep. ongoing >> shan, you've been around this world. big picture, what are you looking for tonight? >> i am interested in, if you are sitting in the biden campaign right now, you're looking at who are these voters who supported biden in 2020, may be voting for haley this time. are they protest voters? are the people who will come back to biden? and what percentage does hit lose who monte papal hit the target in a general election? not necessarily in south carolina, but it tells you a lot about the electorate. i'm also interested in the exit polling. it always tells you how issues like abortion sit. and it might be surprising. we'll see.

even in south carolina. a conservative state. how do voters rank that issue? who do they think of as the person who will be better on a lot of the issues that are front and center for voters? we'll be talking about them at five. >> and we are looking at a potential sample exit poll question there. the second thing is, are you white, black, hispanic -- american indian, other? i'm curious to see how many african americans or part of the republican primary electorate, especially after -- i did it so you don't have to, fever, i watched the entire south carolina speech -- >> thank you for that. >> it's nice to know because he's been indicted, on supposed to liken. but i would like to know how many african americans showed up and voted and how many cast a ballot for him? >> steve kornacki we'll be with us later. but starting our coverage today, former democratic senator from missouri, clark mccaskill. david jolly from florida.

in charleston, south carolina, political white house reporter eugene daniels and in sugar creek, south carolina, nbc news correspondent jacob -- you are going to kick us off. tell us what you are seeing and hearing on the ground? >> hey, i've got to talk to you and my golf broadcaster voice, because they've been kind enough to let us inside the polling places in south carolina, where the rules and regulations are a little bit different from the police report comes from over the course of this primary season. shoal creek is historically high turnout location and the folks here who run the election administration have been kind to enough to give us a window inside. they said they've been very busy her old along. grace doesn't want to talk. christ is putting the ballots in the machine. come on over this way. they are voting. this is the clerk, right? no, okay, he was chasing. me alison is the clerk.

tell me your name again? mary lee. how many people have come out and voted? we are watching turnout closely. in 2016, the turnout here it was about 45% of the eligible population. what is a turnout so far? >> 32%. okay. >> lower than 2016, but we still have three hours to go. >> with had over 700 voters. >> in 2016, 1000 voters came through. correct me if i'm wrong, you don't trick party affiliation, right? >> yes, you just have to pick one. >> we are not talking politics, but what are you hearing from people in terms of participation? is their excitement -- >> people come and and they are excited to say line and people turned out. >> that has been the case here today since? are >> yes. >> wait at want to show any of the people's names, thank you

for having us and here. we are going to keep tabs on what's going on as the day goes on. maybe we'll check it out, quickly, outside. we'll see if anybody's outside coming in to vote and see if we can catch them on that way. and it's a lovely place here. nobody is coming. we'll keep an eye on it. you heard it from them, turnout here is on its right to potentially be as hot as it was in 2016, with three hours to go. i want to give out a shout out to my friends hero for showing us in. appreciate it, guys. back to you. >> jacob, thanks very much. jen, when you introduced jacob and start up with shaka craig, i was, like is that nickname for jacob? thank you for that. >> i'll cold him shook rate from now on. >> let's go to eugene daniels also in south carolina. eugene, you've been covering the haley campaign. what is her team saying on the ground? . .

>> this is her home state. it would be embarrassing for her to lose in a different time period. that would mean something. they don't feel like it does. yesterday, her message was a little different than it's been over the course of the months. she talked about how it's going to be an uphill battle. she told people we have a lot more work to do. she didn't make any promises that would be a surprise to anyone, whatever. they're also leaning on democrats. may and my colleague did a story today talk about how they are reaching out to them, specifically. but highly affiliated groups are telling democrats who did not vote on february 3rd, hey, come out, you can vote again. so much so, and it's not very targeted, the executive director of the south carolina democratic party has been

getting messages to, vote even though he already fought on february 3rd for joe biden. when you talk to folks who know nikki haley, they're not surprised she's ready to stick around and stick it out as long as possible. but, a spokesperson for her, for a really long time when she was governor, told me last night, essentially at some point you have to start thinking about what your legacy is going to be. what does it look like for you in the future of the party? she is young. she could be the future of the party. if she were to bow out, if things keep going as i look like they're going. that's on their minds. up to now, they seem to be gone at least to super tuesday. they've also talked about some of the states outside of super tuesday. they have already started putting stuff in as well. >> i want to bring in david jolly. and he's a former republican. maybe you can translate some things for us here. we are still struggling with them. as jonathan started the show,

laying out last night donald trump basically said he thinks blip voters like him because he's been indicted so many times, he also say today, he comparison self -- he said he was a political dissidents. a bizarre and strange comparison to navalny, i think i heard it as. but he's 30 points ahead in south carolina. on the other hand, nikki haley, a conservative, undoubtedly, but she's not getting the vote. tell us about the electorate, explain to us what's going on. >> i think we know donald trump started a cultural movement. it relies a lot on racial narratives and racist narratives. protecting what nationalism narratives. of luck to say no one else can know once and a person's heart. but what came out of donald trump's mouth last night was racist and educated told about it like that. he is that leader by 30 points or so. let's look at the race in south carolina. we have all been around politics a long time.

i want to point out, nikki haley has gotten away with something of never seen in an election. the expectations game. every candidate who's expected to come up short, they play the expectations game. he has set the expectations bar is i'm not going to drop. out it's absolutely the lowest bar you can say it, as a candidate. not going to drop out. i don't know how i'm going to before, but i'm not dropping. out it raises a really important point, i think. eugene alluded to this about what is for future in the party. for future in the because i would suggest this. nikki haley has had zero impact on this republican primary. nothing, nada, zilch, zero. she lost all 61 counties in iowa. she lost three out of four republican voters in new hampshire. unless she defied expectations tonight, she'll get fronts in her home state where she was governor. she simply has not had an impact on this rice.

she is beginning to have a significant impact on the general election because her constituency is one that does not necessarily ole fold into donald trump's caravan. nikki haley has suggested she probably would vote for donald trump. she would pardon donald trump. we all expect her to fall in line with donald trump. but it doesn't mean her voters have. and she might actually launch a number of these haley voters into the biden camp by sticking in this race long enough and trying to tear down donald trump. and then it becomes the question, what is your future in the republican party of chase the person that spent so much time kneecap in that nominee going into november? >> i want to pick up on what david was talking about, about nikki haley having zero impact on that republican presidential primaries rice. but still, we mentioned this at the top of the show. trump didn't win 80% of the vote in iowa or new hampshire. the final numbers here could --

let me ask you. could that show some vulnerabilities for trump in the general election? and what is the biden team watching for today? >> obviously, if nikki haley comes closer than 20 points, she's had a good night. the polling is a little bit all over the place, fearing from a 21-point advantage for trump to authority point advantage for trump. so if he does before the 20, i think shaken c.a.p. the polls. but what i think is more important is how big is trump's base? the people are going to vote today, and the south carolina republican party are his base. are they 45% of republican voters in south carolina? a realest than that? and frankly, you are right, jonathan. this is not a guy who has gotten a huge endorsement from his party. yes he is winning in the polls

and his party. when they show up, and this primary process, he's not getting the numbers biden has gotten. anywhere near that. you've got to look at trump, you know what he says he is? he says he's the incumbent president. so for an incumbent, quote unquote, president, to get to the kind of numbers he's got, it shows his base is not enough to win the general election. and that, as david just said, is where nikki haley comes into play. she is exposing him, over and over again, to those moderate swing voters, that frankly are going to decide who's president of the united states. >> eugene, to pick up what clear was saying. it is entering, setting the bottom team has been using nikki haley in ads, online, i'm sure they'll use her in paid ads. what is that haley tame saying about this? that she is basically becoming an unwitting, shall we say, surrogate for the biden team? >> they basically dismiss it

out of hand. they completely disagree with the premise, from the folks i've talked to, the idea she's helping them out. it is about trying to fight for, as joe biden pulls it, bustle of the party. giving people in this republican party, primary after primary, caucus after caucus, a change to make their voices heard. at the rally yesterday, when i was talking to folks, obviously a self selected group, but if you are nikki haley, you are hearing that over and over. papal saying audit want to vote for donald trump again. i never voted for donald trump. he can't win a general election. she is the future of the party. we should be able to vote for as long as possible. take it until we get to the convention. those kind of things. i would stick around as well. you are continuously hearing, voters want what she is providing. the biden folks are probably going to continue to use her as a bludgeon against donald trump. because there is nothing

greater than saying -- even the republicans running against him, who may have to endorse him for the general election say ex, why, and z. the kinds of things she said yesterday about how he attacks veterans, how he wastes money in washington, d.c., didn't drain the swamp. all those things. they'll be able to use, for those moderates republicans, moderate democrats, independents -- not just here in south carolina but around the country. >> no question about it. at some point the role of politics as you have to win somewhere in order to stay and. but we'll keep having that conversation. eugene daniels, thanks for joining us from south carolina. we have to sneak in a very quick break. but coming up after the break, a live report from that haley campaign as the former south carolina governor vows to stay in the race. no matter what happened tonight, our special coverage continues after a quick break. we'll be right back. >> i don't like that she

backstabbed trump and she is saying how he's awful. she knows full well she worked with him, he did a great job. you have pictures of her saying her policies from a couple years ago, and now her policies are not in sync. er policies are not in sync. but don't forget this season's updated covid-19 shot too. meet the jennifers. each planning their future through the chase mobile app. hellooo new apartment. one bank for now. for later. for life. chase. make more of what's yours. when you have chronic kidney disease... ...there are places you'd like to be. like here. and here. not so much here. farxiga reduces the risk of kidney failure which can lead to dialysis. ♪far-xi-ga♪

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back with our special coverage of the south carolina primary. jacob soboroff is back with us. what's going on where you are? >> this is the first interview with a voter i've ever done on a moving cult cart. this is gone. we can't talk to voters inside. glenn, who did you vote for? >> i voted for donald j trump. >> he voted for former president trump. not former governor nikki haley. how come? what issues matter most to you? >> i don't think, first of all, she's very classy governor, get

a great job as governor. but adrian think she's got that raise you may, yet, not that she won't, but she doesn't have that regime at yet -- >> you've been harshly critical of her. is there a particular issue? is it what something he's saying -- what is it? >> i don't think, first of all, he's probably critical of most people, to be fair. [silence] >> well, jacob -- maybe we'll get jacob back. >> was always something up his slave. >> oh, he's back? >> there you are! and we lost him again. he gets an a for effort. >> absolutely.

jacob, thank, you will talk to humor for sure. david jolly and claire mccaskill are back with us. joining us as well is nbc news correspondent ali vetali, who's been following the haley campaign. elie, let me start with you. you have spent a lot of time following the haley campaign over the past couple of months. what are the expectations for tonight? what are they telling you? >> even the haley campaign, jen, is not saying they'll win here in her home state. they are aware of the polling. as they said to me on a call yesterday, we know the odds but she also made clear we know the stakes. the haley campaign really hammering the idea they believe they have the most electable candidate in general election a and they do not think that trump will be able to bait president biden. whether or not that's true, in order to get to a general, you've got to go through a primary. this as one that has been consistently giving a message so far that it's an electorate that still believes donald trump

is their biggest standard bearer going forward into 2024. for nikki haley, what they are looking at here instead, is not just if they are going to lose, instead it is a question of by how much. we know that margins and poland, we have seen, have her down to trump at a 2 to 1 margin. if they can put it within ten, 15 points, that would be an excellent not for them. if it is 20 or 30, that is round where we expect it to be. but certainly they are prepared for that eventually. i do have to say, branching of what that voters had to check, if i could not help but react to hearing this man voted for donald trump because he says nikki haley, a twice elected executive -- didn't yet have the resume for this. i don't really know what else you need as race you might, i don't know what positions donald trump held before running for president, but i couldn't help chuckle at that one. >> we did have a similar exchange of what the heck views

when he said that, as well. it is always interesting to hear what people have to say. >> twice elected governor of south carolina and the former u.s. ambassador to the united nations. but one thing we should point out, that governor haley had her strongest fund raising month to date. she managed to raise 16 point $5 million and contributions. and david, with the kind of fundraising, do you expect nikki haley to remain and the rise even after super tuesday? >> there is no telling. but for us, this is where we have to plug ali vetali's book about why a woman hasn't raped the white house. hat tip to l.a.. but, look. will she stay in the race is a question of why is she in the race even? now it is and because she thinks she has a future as that leader of the party? is it just vanity? vanity as a powerful drug in politics.

i take what eugene said to heart. everywhere she goes, people affirm her stay in the race. certainly that is true. 40% of the party does not want donald trump. some of them won't vote for him, they'll vote for joe biden. an important contrast to consider is, consider what ron desantis did and what nikki haley did. they both think that are the future of the party. to both voters telling them, you are the future and when you are not trump we want you. ron desantis recognized the hard rules of politics. get out fast, indoors that guy, go away, take your time, come back later. nikki haley is taking a totally different approach. i will stay in the race as the alternative and take some hard shots at donald trump and try to tear him down. the playbook says, ron desantis is making all the right moves to have a shot for years from now of haley's not. haley, as she likes to say, has always been underestimated. maybe she has a formula that ultimately will work.

>> it is such a difference for the g, the two of them. they're both young. they both have interesting risumis. let me ask you, clear, you obviously are not advising the haley campaign. but you have been in these meetings when candidates are discussing, to weigh state and? do we drop out? what is good for my future? what conversations will be happening in the haley team on a weekend like this? >> first of all, everyone in america now knows who she is. she's accomplished that. you should never discount that. that is a big deal. let me tell you, i have to weigh in on that desantis versus nikki haley. you know what the big difference is between those candidates? one is a good candidate and won sucks as a candidate. >> truth teller fee claire mccaskill. >> ron scientist's stuff and wear it. he just flopped out on the trail. nikki haley's, on agree with

her and hardly anything, but she is a good candidate. she has good skill. here is what nikki haley did. by the way, i have pretty good sources that tell me, and i think this probably will make sense. mcmaster was so close to trump. mcmaster was lieutenant governor in south carolina. and trump called of master. he was one of the very first elected officials to go for trump. he called him and said, what can i do for you? i think what happened, he said, get nikki haley out of south carolina so i can be governor. that's why he appointed her, because he frankly probably doesn't even know what the ambassador to the u.n. does. i don't think he even understands what the u.n. is. what she? go she went because she's outside the swamp. she is not going to be in washington. she is going to be doing a foreign policy job. which added to her risumi, that was alrighty fulsome when it comes to being an executive, so if you want to be president

some day, especially if you are a woman, two term governor plus the foreign policy chops, who are going toe-to-toe with international leaders and that context, if she hasn't completely messed it up with the maga base, and if the maga base sticks around, i do think she has a future. i wouldn't bet on ron desantis. >> she has to work on her risumi, obviously. >> obviously a reality television star doesn't rank up with a two-time governor and former ambassador to the united nations. ali vetali, thank you. clear is sticking around the whole evening. coming up, trump spent the day at cpac before hitting two south carolina, and it was a wild one. we'll break it down with former obama campaign manager david plouffe and our reporter who was there, when we come back. >> mr. trump has shown very clearly what he's all about.

we supported him and 16, when he first came out. he looks like the right man for the job at that time, the right person. to some degree, i think i when he did. i don't know why -- i think he wanted to get back at everybody who's come after him in terms of prosecuting him for his behaviors. behaviors.

democrats agree. conservative republican steve garvey is the wrong choice for the senate. ...our republican opponent here on this stage has voted for donald trump twice. mr. garvey, you voted for him twice... as your own man, what is your decision? garvey is wrong for california.

but garvey's surging in the polls. fox news says garvey would be a boost to republican control of the senate. stop garvey. adam schiff for senate. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message.

way to have some other break news right now. u.s. officials told nbc news thank u.s. and british forces are conducting more fratelli d'italia strikes against houthi rebels and yemen tonight. nbc news correspondent courtney kube joins us now with more details. what can you tell us? >> we are just starting to get some of those details and now. moments ago. we learned those strikes are against at least 18 different targets and eight separate locations. they went after things like houthi military capabilities. what you might recall, i'm sure

you both recall, there have been a number of these coalition strikes, that's the u.s. and british together, could not get these strikes. there have been a number of days rightly. what sets this one out a little bit as it seemed there was an emphasis on underground storage facility. the houthis have been put on some of their missiles, some of their one-way attack drones, storing some of those parts underground to keep the u.s. from striking them in between these attacks. we have been hearing over the last several weeks, as the u.s. has been taking self-defense or more dynamic strikes against the houthis, pretty much on a daily basis. we have been hearing the houthis have been adapting their tactics. they'll pop out from these underground facilities, carry out a strike, whether it is an anti ship ballistic missile or the launch of a drone, and they'll clamp back down. but different about these strikes, what we are learning, they're echoing after more all this underground strikes.

trying to take at the houthis military capabilities, so they can't carry out attacks and target and for ten shipping in the red sea. we've seen an uptick in those types of attacks in recent days. >> courtney kube, thank, you as always, for your excellent reporting. we'll be here for the next two hours, so if you have any big developments come back and give us an update. and the meantime, back to politics. donald trump started his day at the conservative political action conference, as of what is known cpac as, just outside of washington. let's just say the speech was extremely dark. >> it is november five, our new liberation day. where the liars and cheaters and fraudsters and sensors and impostors, who have commandeered our government, it will be their judgment day. their judgment day. >> joining the conversation is

president obama's former campaign manager, and i always like to say, my former boss, just to remind him, david plouffe. and from cpac, where the president spoke today, is and basic correspondent dasha burns. let me start with you, dasha. you have been listening to the speeches. give us some of the highlights. what was the reaction in the room? >> cpac is the quintessential example of how former president trump has absolutely dominated and commandeered the republican party. every single thing that happened at this event had to do with trump. whether it was the speeches, the panels, the wardrobe here. the booths. it was all focused on the former president and really focused on these things his opponents, jen might call his baggage, whether it's january sixth, all of his other legal problems. that is all celebrated here, the people that support him where all of that as a badge of honor. he certainly wore it as a badge

of honor on the stage today. last year, when he spoke here, he touched on vengeance and retribution. this time around, he was really -- he cold himself, we'll talk more about the reaction to this, he called himself up political dissident, just days after he also can perform self to alexei navalny. he is really painting himself for this crowd as a matter. as the person that is standing between them and chaos and the dark picture of america that he painted, that the indictments that are -- he's being and dot on behalf of them. and that is a message that really resonates with the people here. cpac is we are here, people on the stage or the effort is here, you hear the rhetoric he uses repeated almost or veteran from folks. you can really see how in line the maga base really is with the person they see as their leader . >> david, last night, i watched

that speech in south carolina so you didn't have to. and i put myself through watching the cpac speech today. i'm wondering, what did you make of trump cola november five a judgment day for his political opponents, but also calling himself a political dissidents? >> none of it surprises us. i think the victimization we are going to say, no one we've got more trials, and he's going to have more judgments down the road, he wants to set this up. i don't think it strategic because i don't think he's capable of. that i think, at the end of the day, they're able to say, as much as he is a threat to democracy, you have people this week in the republican party, including at cpac, being quite clear about that. we almost got rid of democracy on january sixth, we are going to finish the job. just but they're very clear desire to turn trump and his family into permanent leaders and dictators, they are turning

it around. saying, we are the victims here. i think that he sees that as a way to drive up turnout. which i think is probably their number one goal right now. a little more excitement on his side. he shows no interest in appealing to the middle, other than this week on ivf. i think the biden campaign and democrats will still be able to publish him and the republican party for the ivf, contraception, clearly abortion. seems like there's a thought we should get rid of record of unit six. these people are crazy. so i think trump is always doubling down for his base. he's now decided he's going to play president. he's going to play victim. it's crazy as that, is i think we'll see that more and more play a role in his unhinged speeches and the weeks and months to come. >> dasha, to david's point, it's not like the cpac audience is necessarily including when voters, i think it is safe to

say. it is always interesting to see what percentage of. people of the lines you are going through, we have talked about, them what to people go crazy over? was it that dissident line? was it that november 5th is judgment day? what stuck out to you? >> basically anytime he sounds combative, anytime he gets really into that fight her character, papal go crazy. that has the advantage he has with his base, we are democrats right now, that i talked to, while they very much disagree and do not want to see trump in the white house, they see that as the kind of energy they are looking for from someone in their party. the fact that it trump can fight like this and can rally people like this. and can't message in a way. to david's point, i think there's some strategy here. his team this time around is very different than his team was in 2016. you've got susie

wildes, people thinking strategically. like, if biden says trump is a threat to democracy, let's flip that on its head. and as i, know, biden is a threat to democracy. and you see those banners and those signs and you see people at trump rallies were english or. it's so there is a strategy of this. and the democrats need to think about that and not take for granted -- i think there is something compelling tow the way he is able to be this bump estate but say i'm doing it for you. >> david, let me pick up on something you said earlier about trump wants to drive up turnout. trump is set to win big in south carolina but he doesn't seem to be trying to appeal to new voters. it seems like he's still speaking to the hard-core base. so, one, are there new voters for him to turn out and do you

expect him to start reaching out beyond the hard-core base at any point, maybe once he's officially the republican nominee? >> he should have started that the night of the new hampshire primary. he is to blame for nikki haley still being in the race, the way he dealt with that and kind of attacked her. i think that's a question. i'm sure his campaign team would like him to say things that would maybe have voters who voted against him in 2020 to give him a second chance. he personally doesn't seem capable of doing that. he is kind of a northeast, associate path, and doesn't think he should ever acknowledge he did anything wrong. or that he has anything to learn. but i think there is going to be some tension there. i would imagine some of the advertising they campaigned, as you will see an attempt to try and rebuild some of his vote in suburban areas, even some of the voters he hemorrhaged in 2020. on to know if he's capable of

doing that. again, i think the ivf was basically a defcon one throughout the republican party. they all realize they had, within 48 hours, to stem the bleeding. i don't think i will. because it clearly we are the energy. is outside of, that he seems very satisfied to basically be bringing his greatest hits in to the maga base. and that is the world he inherits. i think that's going to be fascinating to watch. because under think his campaign understands we have got to get to the 48 or 49% in some of the state rather than 46 or 47, they have got to do better with moderates than they did in 2020 and 2016. adrian thank he's capable of that so there could be some tension between candidate and campaign leadership on that question. >> the paid media normie trump we are going to see come in our ways in the coming months. the ivf defender, a hard challenge for democrats. dasha burns, thank you so much.

we appreciate you coming to us from that rally. david isn't going anywhere. coming up, how is the biden campaign thinking about what's happening in south carolina? it's all stretching the general election. we are in it. it's a rematch. michael tyler as the communications director for the biden harris team. our special coverage continues after a quick break. don't go anywhere. ick break. don't go anywhere. and a high-risk factor for it becoming severe. it does not prevent covid-19. my symptoms are mild now, but i'm not risking it. if it's covid, paxlovid. paxlovid must be taken within the first five days of symptoms, and helps stop the virus from multiplying in your body. taking paxlovid with certain medicines can lead to serious or life-threatening side effects or affect how it or other medicines work, including hormonal birth control. it's critical to tell your doctor about all the medicines you take because certain tests or changes in their dosage may be needed. tell your doctor if you have kidney or liver problems, hiv-1, are or plan to become pregnant, or breastfeed. don't take paxlovid if you're allergic to nirmatrelvir,

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and it's given us a second chance. elizabeth stewart: saint jude's not going to stop until every single kid gets that chance to walk out of the doors of this hospital cancer-free. narrator: please, don't wait. call, go online, or scan the qr code below right now. [♪ music playing ♪] okay, we all know donald trump has given a lot of crisis because over the years. but none crazier than the one we saw last night. they former president was speaking at a black conservative conference and columbia, south carolina, when he said this. >> i got indicted for nothing, for something that is nothing. they were doing it because it's

election interference. then i got inside a sickens time and a thorough time and a fourth time. and a lot of people said that's why that black people like me. because they have been heard so badly and discriminated against. and they viewed me as i'm being discriminated against. it's been pretty amazing. >> joining us now, michael tyler, communications director for the biden harris 2024 campaign. michael, thanks for being here. your reaction to those comments from donald trump lost not and can we expect to see any of that in an edge from of the biden harris campaign? >> and when? >> thank you both so much for having me on tonight. listen, as it relates to donald trump, the fact this man is trying to appeal to black voters by citing his own criminal investigations and mugshot, i think tells us everything we need to know about how he sees us. frankly,

this man can try to do that or he can try to hawk bootleg sneakers all he wants. the problem for him is the record is as loud as the shoes. we know what life for black america was like under donald trump. the things that went up for black america under his presidency was the unemployment right and the uninsured right. also our collective blood pressure from the vitriol and chaos we saw every day from him. obviously this will be a direct point of contrast for the duration of the campaign from now until november. >> michael, what i'm hearing is you are not wearing gold sneakers that we can see right now. that's not a surprise. let me ask you, i've been on a couple of presidential campaigns. on know even when it's the other parties primary, you are still watching and your campaign headquarters. so bring us inside, in delaware, what are you looking at? turnout, the get between them, there were speeches -- what is the bonding watching tonight?

>> tonight, what we know is top will confirm what we already know. donald trump is marching towards the republican nomination. he still looms up a cause he fully defines maga extremism in 2024. he's running on a record and using rhetoric that's more extreme and more dangerous than it was in 2016 or 2020. you can't look at that last week, right, we have the perfect example of this. that latest salvo of project 2025 is his plan to institute a federal abortion ban if he returns to power. this comes to light days before a state is ripping away access to fertility care for women. because of him and the role he played in overturning roe. we talked about last night in south carolina, his racist appeals to black voters. and today at cpac, he's returning to his greatest hits on immigration, talked about ripping apart families and rounding up latinos, and haven't

mass deportation camps. this is the way he's been able to consolidate the maga base -- but that woman, black folks, latinos, moderate, independent voters -- that you see this and they understand the fundamental stakes as we head into the general election. it will stand in stark contrast president to biden and vice president harris, running a campaign vote on your freedom, your democracy. it will be an incredibly stark choice for the american people. >> michael, let's talk more about abortion. you alluded to this. alabama's supreme court's role in that hospitals had to pull his ivf procedures, left republicans scrambling to take positions on the issue. donald trump has come out in support of ivf. but he's overtaken created for overturning roe, which really opened the door to what we are seeing an alabama. how are you, the biden harris campaign, going to make sure he does not get away with having it all the ways on this issue?

>> he can post on truth social, whatever he wants. people don't care about that. they care about what he has done and the reality he has created. he's out here every single day on the campaign trail, broken about the role he played and overturning roe v. wade. and what we are seeing an alabama is the direct result of that. across this country, the young people across the country, who understand the harm he's inflicting are going to take that to the ballot box in november. we are going to press the case on this every single day. you have seen him come on your airways and talk about the harrowing stories, trying to grow their own families and i can no longer do this right now because of donald trump. that is the reality people are seeing every day. and we'll make sure they see it every day from now until november. >> let me ask you very quickly, michael, before i let you. go you guys have primary coming up on tuesday and michigan as well. some progressives urging voters to take it -- a message to the

president over his handling of the israel-hamas war. how is the campaign handling that or preparing for that? >> we understand this is a moment where there is a lot of passion. i think it's reflected in the campaign irreverence-ing. this president and this campaign, we'll continue to engage with the community. we'll continue to talk about the president and his values. this is a president who is approaching in every situation of the conflict in the middle east and if the other situation with the decency and empathy required of an american presidents and from our commander-in-chief. this president will continue to engage the community -- will work to earn every single vote. and will communicate the fundamental stakes of this election. we have a president, every single day, fighting to bring people together in search of solutions. while on the other side we have a fundamental threat in donald

trump who wants to fundamentally tear down the fabric of our democracy, who wants to put americans against one another in an effort to serve himself. we are going to earn the trust, the respect, and the votes of every single american we can. and we'll put that in stark contrast to donald trump. we are confident that will put in the work and be successful on election day. >> he'll give you a lot of far- right. we'll see what's next. michael tyler, thank you so much. we are just two hours from polls closing in south carolina. steve kornacki, the one and only, is firing up the big board. getting it warmed up with the first exit poll of the evening. our special coverage of the south carolina primary coup continues after a very short break. don't go anywhere. n't go anywh.

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stop garvey. adam schiff for senate. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message. ♪ ♪ ♪ and welcome back to our special coverage of the south carolina republican presidential primary. i am jonathan capehart in washington d.c., alongside my friend and colleague jen psaki. it's five pm here on the east coast, which means polls in the -- state will close in just two hours. >> and in just a moment, we will bring you our first wave of exit polling. and our first insights into where south carolina voters stand. the great, the one and only steve kornacki is at the big board, of course, he is calculating things away, right to break down these numbers. a total of 50 delegates are up

for grabs tonight. and just as a reminder, -- needs 1215 delegates to capture the republican nomination. despite trailing donald trump by nearly 30 points in recent polling, former south carolina governor nikki haley made it clear that she does not plan on dropping out of the race anytime soon. >> my whole goal, for running, is because you have a majority of americans who are saying they don't want donald trump, and they don't want joe biden. so as long as you have a majority of american saying, please give us a choice, i am going to continue to fight. i am not going anywhere, i'm going to make sure that we give americans a choice. >> meanwhile, just hours ago, trump gave a speech at cpac, where he painted a dark and draconian vision for america. he said election day would be judgment day for democrats. and last night, in a bizarre and unhinged speech, even for him, he made these racist comments to a group of black

conservatives, about his appeal to black voters. >> and these lights are so bright in my eyes, and i can't see too many be blip there. i, i can only see the black ones, i can't see any white ones. that's how far i've come. >> under my administration, black americans prosper like no time in the history that our country. we achieved the lowest african- american unemployment rate ever recorded. the black people are so much on my side now, because they see what's happening to me happens to them. does that make sense? we've all seen the mug to, in and you know who embraced it more than anybody else, the black population. you see black people walking around with my mugshot. you know they had to t-shirts, and they sell them for $19 apiece. >> so, we are going to talk about those comments in just a moment, i promise. but we just got the results of our first round of exit

polling. so let's go to nbc national political correspondent steve kornacki. he is at the big board. steve, what can you tell us? >> okay, so i can tell you there are polls in south carolina that are still open, as you can see the bottom of your screen there, for just under two more hours. so what we are getting, hear what i'm about to show you, is the first wave of exit poll data. remember how this, works all throughout the day, we got folks down there on the ground in south carolina, talking to voters, as they come out of the polls, accumulating a larger and larger sample size. so they are still out there doing it, people are still out there voting. we are going to have a second and a third wave of the status, oh this is preliminary data that we have collected so far. and i'm going to tell you a little bit about the nature of the al -- that we are learning about from this exit poll data. and i think one of the big questions every once had coming into the south carolina primary is, look, nikki haley, we know in new hampshire she did exceptionally well with independents, exceptionally well with democrats. donald trump of course was running up big margins with

self identified republican voters. and in south carolina, this is an open primary. this is a state without party registration, nobody goes and registers by political party. but what we do ask in the exit poll is what we asked in new hampshire, it will be asked in iowa, it's will be asking every primary. we ask people, what do you think of yourself? do you think of yourself as a republican, as an independent, as a democrat? we find it's a pretty useful tool. so what i'm going to show you right now, first of all again, open primary here, anybody, unless they voted in that democratic primary three weeks ago, and not many people did. anybody can go and vote in this republican primary today, so we asked them. you see the exit poll year, what do you think of yourself? sorry, oh all that buildup, and i pressed the wrong button. here it is, what do you think of yourself as? and take a look at what we are seeing here. 69%, this is our first wave, these numbers can change, they don't generally do change. but in our first wave, 69% of the republican -- electorate in south carolina calls themselves republicans. that means look at this, 21%

called themselves independent, 40 -- 4% call them. and 6% say something else. so, you add those numbers together, and what do you get? you get 31% of the republican primary electorate in south carolina, not identifying as republicans, identifying as something other than republicans. and then 69% calling themselves republicans. stress again, i don't mean to sound like a broken record, first wave, there are two more to come, we will see. but, the numbers to keep in mind for perspective when we are looking at this our number one, what did we see in new hampshire last month? about a month ago, in the new hampshire primary, what was the split between republicans and non-republicans in new hampshire? it was exactly 50/50. remember, what we are seeing right here is 69 republican, 31 non republican. so, that's what we are seeing preliminarily. and to put this in further context, now it can call up that graphic i accidentally show a few minutes ago. this is the history, this century, of the south carolina

republican. primary asking this question about the election. do you think of yourself as a republican, independent, or a democrat? and just to put it in context here, what we are seeing in this first wave is 69 republican, and ten i think it was, excuse me, it was four for democrats, 21 for independents, and six for others. so basically 31 is the total, as i said, for non-republican. and just put that in context historically. 2016, when donald trump won his primary, it was 24% nonverbal, can so it is higher than that. 2012, it was 29%, 25 plus four, non-republican. it is slightly higher than that. 2008, it was only 20% non- republican. so it's significantly higher than that. but 2000, and that's the race with a lot of parallels with this one. that was george w. bush, he was the establishment choice, john mccain, he was campaigning as a maverick, the straight talk express. he was getting massive support from independents, he was getting democrats to flip over and turnout for him.

and that here is the highest number we've ever seen, the highest chair we've ever seen in a south carolina republican primary, of independents and democrats. you hit the combined total 39%, back in 2000. mccain lost that primary to bush, but 39% is what he managed to turn out there among independents and democrats. again, the number we are seeing in this preliminary, waif is 30. one so it is higher then 16, 12, and eight. but right now it is not reaching those levels that set the record back in 2000. so i think that's a question. and again, we will see if this changes in subsequent waves at all. that is a question everybody has been asking about this. a couple of others, we can quickly show you here. look at the share of voters who say they are evangelical, or born-again christians in this primary. the number in this first wave is 66%, again, for context on this in new hampshire, a month ago, the number was 19%. that was a new hampshire number, very very secular

state, one of the most sick tech -- in iowa, in the middle of january, remember the caucus state, 55% evangelical. so new hampshire, iowa, the number preliminary in south carolina is higher than both. basically, two thirds of this electorate, calling themselves or an again or evangelical christians. and one more we can quickly show you here as well. a big dividing line, we talk about this in general elections, it also exists in republican primaries. it is going to play a key role tonight, as the results start to come in. but it is looking at educational attainment here. there's a divide among republican voters in this primary, there is a divide nationally in general elections between those with college degrees or advanced degrees. and those without college degrees, and what you are seeing here is 43% of the electorate, preliminarily says they have a college degree. 57% say they don't, that would be a higher share if this were to hold. and again, more data to come. but if this were to hold, that

57% would be a somewhat significantly higher share of the electorate, saying they do not have a college degree, this time, compared to the 2016 primary. so, my broken record, i will say it one more time. it is preliminary, there will be more numbers to come out, but that is our first glimpse, as the picture starts to come into focus a little bit, of what this electorate is starting to look like in south carolina tonight. >> steve, thank you very much for that. joining us now, i feel like i've just been sitting in class with a professor. writing down. notes >> writing down numbers. >> all of the numbers that are going to be on the test. reverend al sharpton, host of msnbc's politicsnation, david plouffe, msnbc political analyst and former obama campaign manager, jennifer palmieri, msnbc political analyst and co-host of the how to win 2024 podcast, and here on set, amanda carpenter, writer and editor at protect democracy. so rev, first, your reaction to the numbers that we heard from

steve. >> well i think the numbers show us that we are seeing a significant amount of people that voted today were republican. and certainly, we see a very small number of democrats that voted today. in part, i would assume, because we've had the democratic primary there in south carolina, and some did not come back out. but the real question here is whether nikki haley can bring out voters to vote in her be half, when she is so low in the polls, and upset things for donald trump. and if some of donald trump's recent remarks would make people come to turn out and vote against him. so, i'm going to be watching tonight, because he has, in many ways, aside from his legal troubles, have led into the day, he has brought out some of the most racist language that we've heard in american politics. and we will see how that fares

with voters today. >> plus, let me ask you, and we are going to dig into all of those comments, there's a lot to dig into their. but before we move on from the numbers, steve made an interesting comparison to 2000. and i was just interested in what your thought was on that. i mean, it's not a surprise, there's obviously a huge evangelical vote in the republican primary in south carolina. that's not a surprise. although, it is kind of interesting, the number of independents, how that compares to 2000. but, what did you make of that? is there anything to read into that, if you are the biden campaign, any good signs? >> yeah, it i think we are going to see jen, is a big trump victory. because even in 2000, were donald trump -- of getting a lot of non republicans out, george bush sometime. so, i think we are going to see a similar result tonight. but if you are the biden campaign, you now have three states that are voting, a much more in march. and you're gonna have anywhere from 30 to 45% of the people not choosing to vote for donald trump. so, that's a target rich data

set. now, a good percentage of those voters, most of those voters will come home to trump. but not all will. so if you are looking, and obviously we live in a world with a very sophisticated data modeling now. so in wisconsin, in michigan, in arizona, in georgia and nevada, you can basically create a universe of people that are similar to those people, that voted against trump in iowa new hampshire, and in -- and basically, run your campaign to some extent at them, because even if the vast majority of that cohort goes home to trump, these are republican primary voters. and if biden is abto peel some of them off, that will be significantly mathematically in those battleground states. so yes, the biden campaign is going to be watching this very carefully. because again, trump is essentially an incumbent candidate. and he is losing a healthy percentage of the vote for an incumbent figure. and so, as you look forward to the general election, in a campaign, you always want more information, more data.

who can we target, who might be available to us? and i think that is being revealed in these primaries. >> data is always so important, like every element of data you can get. okay amanda, i want to ask you just a question everyone has. which is like, what is nikki haley's goal here? you could answered anyway you want. tonight, in the long term, in four years? >> the argument that she is making now, and i want to take around her. word i realize there is a lot of banks and frustration with nikki haley, because it's really hard to get a straight answer out of her on a lot of issues, she seems calculated, not really authentic at times. but the consistent story that she has told is that donald trump can't win a general election. the argument is kind of hard to make, not if she's going to lose by 20 or 30 points, but that is what she is focused on, telling voters he can't win the general election. -- in order for republicans to, when we have to put this negativity and chaos behind us. therefore, she is staying in the race.

why? you know, it takes a lot of tenacity to do this, when everyone is telling her, you have no chance. so why is she? and i have to look at this you, know the, breath of her work, it's because she believes in fighting for the last vote, right. she is not going to take herself out of this race, she is not going to let trump -- she's going to wait till the delegate math makes it a foregone conclusion. but what does that mean, for voters, right? like, she has the ability to stay in this race, largely because of the money, and the donors that are willing to fund it, not because she has a real authentic grassroots base. and, so where does she go from here with that? other than to say i told you show later, and then she comes back to the party begrudgingly, because the other thing that is so frustrating, is that she makes this really hard case against trump. but then, she will turn around and say, but biden is worse. like, always reserving that right to get back on the team, after all of this. >> you also have to win somewhere, that's politics. and it is going to get worse, it is a winner take all. in just a couple of weeks. >> right, and jennifer, we would love to get your thoughts on the numbers that we got from

steve. the particularly, lots of people thought that maybe democrats who didn't vote in the democratic south carolina primary would swamp of the polls, and try to sway the results for nikki haley. but in the first wave, only 4% of the folks who voted are, identified as democrats. >> yeah, it's a lot to ask for democrats, to turn -- after they've already voted, or to plan not to vote in your own primary to turn out to vote a couple of weeks later, for a republican that you hoped doesn't become president. it's a lot. but, it is, when you look at the demographic that came out of the exit polls that steve workout, this is the trumpiest state yet, right. so, the more evangelical voters than even iowa. so you could see why trump is doing as well as he is, and haley is not. but the truth is, david is right about, every time she is in a race, we get valuable

information on behalf of the democrats. and i also think that, having a republican candidate, a republican candidate like nikki haley continue to make arguments against trump, particularly when it is related to russia and ukraine, protecting democracy, that is really valuable for independent voters to hear. and so, i suspect she is in it for. i mean if i were, her if i was working for her i would say look, 30 to 35% of the party is not supporting their nominee, and i'm going to hang in, there and i'm going to continue to make this argument. even if she can't win, i know for a fact she is helping, i don't know if she wants to do this, but she is helping biden, by making this argument. and then, that is good for the general election. but then also, you are getting this information from the general election, which is -- >> right, right. and rev, so let's talk about that mash-up of racism that we opened up this segment with. the comments that trump made

last night at the black conservative federation gala. what did you make of it? and of trump's attempts to gain more support among black voters? i don't know, saying that black voters -- if i'm a criminal, you're going to like me doesn't seem like a winning message. >> well what he's saying is, and i don't think he is planning to get black votes, i think he is using blacks as a blackboard to score with -- who have this anti black view. that's the only way you could make sense of this. to say that we are somehow agreeable, or identify with people that commit crimes, that his mugshot, he had a mug shot for election interference. and we fought, some marched and died to get the right to vote. so to act as though i am talking to people that worship criminals, and you can identify with these criminals. he is really talking to people that have that base opinion of

us. i don't know what kind of blacks were in the room, that would feel that they are kids identify with trump, either in a mugshot. do we have blacks that commit crimes? yes, we have a lot of blacks that have been accused of crimes that were innocent. but, he is accused of election interference, he is accused of defrauding banks. why would he feel that blacks identify with that, other than that's the stereotype that he believes? why don't we have t-shirts of the central park five? five young black and brown men that were wrongly convicted in new york, that he said should get the death penalty, and that he bought ads to, and he continues to say they are guilty, even after dna freed them. so we should have t-shirts of the central park five, not of his mugshot, for trying to undermine our voting rights. >> preach on it rev. [laughter] >> we'll be making those t- shirts during the commercial break. everyone sticking around. up next, dnc chair jaime harrison joins us live from south carolina, to weigh in on

tonight's republican primary in his home state. and as we go to break, what we are hearing from nikki haley supporters today. our special coverage continues, after a very quick break. ecial after a very quick break. first of all, i think women are smarter, i think we need to change. i like her views. so yeah, i think she would do well for the country. >> and, we just need to get rid of the chaos. we just need to g of the chaos. ava: i was just feeling sick. and it was the worst day. mom was crying. i was sad.

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welcome back to our special coverage of the south carolina republican primary. joining us now, jaime harrison, chairman of the democratic national committee, and still with us, reverend al sharpton is here as well. all right chairman, chairman harrison, why do you think former governor haley has such little chance of winning her, and you, your home state? >> well jonathan, you've heard me say this. listen, all of the -- and all of those maga apples are rotten. you know, folks know nikki haley in south carolina, particularly black folks in the democratic party. this is a sane person who -- hospitals, who denied health care coverage. who believes in getting medicare and social security. and the list goes on and on and on. and she would have voted for the same right-wing justices on the supreme court that ripped away roe v. wade.

and, that's who we got in donald trump. this person, who wants to take away all of the freedoms that we have in this country. so, the president said this, it doesn't matter if it's nikki haley or donald trump, they are the same, as it relates to the freedoms that the people in this country enjoy. and we cannot stand by and be silent, and allow these people to rip these freedoms away from us. >> i want to, i know you are michigan right now, a really important state in the general election. and you just mentioned abortion. i mean this week, donald trump tried to trans office some sort of ivf warrior, which we all know is -- given he named three. and the dobbs ruling was named 15 times in this judgment. but how are democrats, how is the dnc going to make clear this contrast? because we are really in the general election now, and not let him get away with wearing an ivf cape? >> well we are not going to let donald trump get away with that, and we are not going to let the maga republicans get away with it as well. i saw lindsey graham today,

trying to deny that republican said anything to do with this. no, republicans had everything, maga republicans had everything to do with this. and they are led by donald trump. they put these right-wing justices on the supreme court, that got rid of the law of the land. for 50 years, women had full, complete control over their bodies. and now, one third of women in this nation don't. and particularly, those who live in these states, that are controlled by maga republicans. and we have to stop this. we have to stop this latest attack on reproductive freedom. now, they want to restrict, they want to restrict abortions, now they want to restrict -- next, they are going to try to go after contraception in this country. it is a very slippery slope, and it is a very dangerous slippery slope for all of americans to understand. you allow the take away one, freedom and becomes easier for them to take away the next. and we have to stand up and say

enough is enough. and joe biden and kamala harris are leading that effort, to make sure that we stand up for all women in this country. >> reverend sharpton, you have a question for the chairman. >> yes, jamie, you have talked about how the court, the supreme court has been stacked by donald trump, in terms of women's reproductive rights. he takes credit for -- in this role. and they also ended affirmative action. he goes and appeals, and he says he is trying to appeal to black voters by talking about us like mugshots, and really being criminal. how do you make the argument about affirmative action, in about fighting die to black voters, that is at stake, like we talking to women voters about reproductive rights? which are really the results of donald trump putting three members on the supreme court. >> well, it's donald trump and these maga republicans, like lindsey graham and tim scott. not only affirmative action,

rev, but they are also the voting rights act. this is the right wing supreme court that gutted voting rights. the rights of black folks, and so many of us who were denied the right to vote in this country. and so, we have to make sure that everybody understands the stakes for this election. they are, they are at a very very high. this election is about hope versus fear, progress versus chaos. we have made tremendous progress, rev, because of you and so many others, who bled, -- and did so much to fight for more freedoms in this country. and these republicans, led by folks like donald trump, have chipped away at those freedoms. and that cannot stand. so, all of the conversations that we are having, i just met with some black business owners, small business owners here in michigan, in detroit. and we talked about how the attack on the ei, the attack on the benefits, and the progress that we have seen for black

businesses in this country. and all of that is at stake, in this election. and you can't allow donald trump, who believes he can roll out all of these racist tropes, and think that that is going to be how he gets the black vote in this country. remember, this is the same guy, a rat, that had birtherism, who tried to delegitimized the first black president of the united states. we can go on, and on, about how donald trump, he is a racist. let's just put it point blank. and you can't allow him, we can't allow him to continue that for another four years. that's why this election is so important. >> chair of the democratic national committee jaime harrison, thank you very much for coming on the show tonight. and coming up, steve kornacki is back at the big board, to break down more exit polling, with just about 90 minutes to go before the polls close. to go before the polls close. from breaking your momentum. you may have already been ated ainst the flu,

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and we are back with our special coverage of the south carolina republican presidential primary. and let's get back to steve kornacki, at the big board. steve? >> yes, well if you are watching at the top of the hour, we said the exit polls, the first wave of the exit polls, we have rain. there is more to come, as you see on the screen there, a voting continues for the next 90 minutes or so. what is the first wave of exit polling? again, we've had folks out in the field, throughout south carolina today, talking to folks as they leave the polls, just accumulating one interview after another. think of this like the old polaroid picture. you know, you've got to look at it for a while, it slowly comes into focus, it's not fully in focus right now, but we are starting to see the outlines of some things. maybe that's the way to look at this. so a few other ways of looking at the nature, the character of this electorate, in south carolina.

we asked voters, and again, these are some questions we've been asking from state to state, as these primaries go along. so there's some comparisons we can make between them. we asked voters in the republican primary in south carolina today, did joe biden legitimately when the 2020 election? let's see what the answer is there, 32% of republican primary voters in south carolina in this first wave of exit polling, say yes, biden won it. meaning basically two thirds, 65% say biden did not win the election legitimately, in 2000. striking difference here, from the state we were talking a month ago. the last major contest, new hampshire. in the new hampshire primary, the in the republican primary, it was 46% who said that biden legitimately won the -- presidency. and 51% who said he didn't. so you can see the movement on that question here. and again, we will see if these numbers shift, as we get more waves of exit polling data. let's take a look, a couple of other areas here. we mentioned this one of the top of the show, if you were watching. again, this big dividing line

we've seen republican politics, and really in all of national politics. college degree, no college degree. so what is the makeup of the election? it what does that split look like? 43% in our exit poll, republican primary goers today say they have a college degree. 57%, no. this is, if this holds, if this ends up being anything of what it looks like, and we have all the exit polls. it could be a pretty big difference from eight years ago. remember eight years ago, 2016, south carolina republican primary, donald trump won. there is that crowded field. well eight years ago, 54% of republican primary voters in south carolina said they had a college degree. so this would be a pretty significant decline, in that number. and let me just see what we have on the second page, i was hoping it would populate, it didn't. so maybe i can just tell you about this, one and i can write some numbers on the screen. where will be a good place to do? this i'm going to write some numbers, and hopefully will make some sense. here we asked folks to describe their ideology, in this republican primary. do you think of yourself as a liberal, as a moderate, as a

conservative? and what we are seeing in this first wave is at 6%, a very small number, not surprisingly, say they are liberal. the number that say they are moderate, 28%. so combined, about a third of this republican electorate, saying they are liberal or moderate. and that leaves the lion's share, 66% who say they are conservative. two thirds call themselves conservative. now, oh, i'm sorry, i am reading this completely wrong. what i was just giving, you those were the numbers for new hampshire. that's what i want to show you. this was what the numbers wore for new hampshire a month ago, 6% liberal, 28 moderates, 66% conservative. i was looking at those saying, that's low for south carolina. they are, because in south carolina tonight, what we are seeing in this example is that 80%, eight in ten of these republican primary voters are calling themselves conservatives. again, up from what we saw in new hampshire a month ago. 66%. so, what we are seeing here is more republican voters, who say joe biden didn't legitimately win. more republican, then new

hampshire. more republican primary voters, who call themselves conservative. more republican primary voters, compared to the last south carolina primary, who do not have college degrees. and as we just showed, we showed you earlier in the hour, born-again evangelical christians, 66%, two thirds of this electorate saying they are born again or evangelical christians. yeah that's the high -- in the three major contests we've seen so far. iowa, the caucuses, 55% new hampshire, very secular, 19%, in this example right now. two thirds of republican primary voters saying they are evangelical or born-again christians. >> wow. steve kornacki, thank you very much for, wow, these data points that you have just given us. and -- back with us, amanda carpenter, writer and editor of -- reverend al sharpton, host of msnbc's politicsnation. and jennifer palmieri, former obama communications director, an msnbc political analyst. so amanda, what stands out for

you, from this latest round of example in data that we've got? >> i'm just going through it all, it seems like it's going to be a really rough night for nikki haley, given the born again evangelicals that are turning, out given the number of non-college-educated voters. i mean, this is not an achilles demographic, even though this is our home. state >> and so, what is she going to say tonight? how does she make the case going forward? i would just say, i'm so hung up on this question, not because i am just acts obsessed with nikki haley, it's because this has been an ongoing question within the republican party, about how do we move forward from this. and. >> is it nikki haley, or is it someone else? is that what she setting herself up? four >> and here's what it comes down. do i think, the thing that she seems to want to take away from this race, is the ability to say i told you so later. right, to come back to the team, and say you could pick me, and you lost again. but the republican party meat needs a lot more restructuring then a general election argument. there needs to be, i am part of the pro democracy coalition, and nikki haley took a look at

this primary race, and then said you know what, there is just some things i can't compromise. on i still consider myself a republican, i'd like to support trump, except for these things. and maybe try to force some policy change, some kind of concession of some type. she doesn't, she hasn't laid the groundwork for that. and so again, what are we doing with all of this work here, if you are not actually going to do the work to change the makeup of the republican party's, it's not going to change. >> well, but it may not be that there is a policy change that's desired. i mean, i will say, the number that stuck out to me, and i know we get a little numb to this sometimes, but i think it's important to call out that only a third, if i heard this correctly and i wrote it down, and i'm looking at your notes, like did you write the same thing down? only 32% of people in the republican primary, from the second pull again, there will be numbers that will be developing or coming closer to focus. i think that joe biden was legitimately elected. i think, it's important to focus on that. so jennifer palmieri, i just wanted to go to you.

because it's not surprising, but what do you, what do you do with that information? >> i mean the bar is so low i'm, like wow, a third of republican voters. you know a third of people voted, think that joe biden won the election legitimately. we haven't lost the entire republican party. it's also, from what i can see from the scroll. i mean, steve didn't go over, this before what i saw on the scroll is about the same number said that if trump was convicted of a crime, that they would not vote for him. so that is like, those are probably the haley voters, right? that mind -- >> they are look exactly the same numbers. 35 and 62 on both. -- >> that may end up being a lease vote. but i think amanda is going to get to the right question here. because, there is, haley she maybe setting herself up to say i told you so, but voters don't want to hear that. that is not a good message to win people over for 2028. you know, there are times where

the number two person on the republican primary side has come back for years later, and one. john mccain came back after running against bush, mitt romney came back to be, he ran in 2008, not successful, came back in 2012. that is sort of an establishment, conventional way republicans -- but democrats don't do that by the, way we don't do that at. all >> you were like, your old. news >> your old news. sit out. yeah, we move on. but that, so she's, you know ten years ago, that might have been, that might have worked. so i don't know if she has any future in the republican party. but still, i'm glad she is out, there she is right to, right on these questions about -- xi's right to raise all the questions about the strain and russia, and that the election was -- so, i think all that is for the good for democracy. but it is unclear what she does. >> so of all the people on this screen, only one of us has

actually run for their party's nomination. >> that's true. >> and he is the person who is right in the box below us, that is reverend al sharpton. so reverend sharpton, get, bring us into the mindset of a candidate running for president, who is faced with the decision about whether to stay in, or get out? what do you think nikki haley is thinking right now? >> i think she has to ask herself what she got in for, in the first place. and the fact that it took her so long to begin to attack donald trump, makes a lot of people feel, well, what is the point of your campaign? she at first was with donald trump, she was his a u.n. ambassador. and then she started running, and she was not really attacking him. now all of the sudden, she is, in the last couple of weeks, attacking him in many ways. so it's hard for people to say she is the one that is going to correct this party. she comes off more as one that

is a -- rather than a thermostat, she is a temperature taker. she is one that is saying out -- whatever works for me at the time. and i think rather than that, you need someone, when this party crashes, and i believe it will, that is going to be able to say i can rebuild the party. not only did i tell you so -- i told you that this party cannot go the way it's going against women, against people of color, against workers, and surviving in the american population. when a third of south carolina -- when both of their senators are with donald trump -- in that the election was stolen in 2020, in a third of republicans are saying, well i don't believe it was stolen, that is something that the democrats and joe biden, and kamala harris can build on. >> no question. i will say, since reverend al actually ran for president, that advice i would give to anyone watching, whoever may want to run for president. right on why you are running, what you are in it for, be

prepared to answer that question many times. and, come back to that note card. a lot of people don't do that. reverend al sharpton, thank you so much. jennifer palmieri, always a pressure -- sticking around with us here at the table. and still ahead, former south carolina gop chair nikki haley -- -- joins us to discuss haley's path forward, after tonight. s haley's path forward, after tonight. new sensodyne clinical white provides 2 shades whiter teeth and 24/7 sensitivity protection. i think it's a great product. it's going to help a lot of patients. nothing comes close to this place in the morning. i'm so glad i can still come here. you see, i was diagnosed with obstructive hcm. and there were some days i was so short of breath. i thought i'd have to settle for never stepping foot on this trail again. i became great at making excuses. but i have people who count on me so i talked to my cardiologist. i said there must be more we can do for my symptoms. he told me about a medication called camzyos. he said camzyos works by targeting what's causing my obstructive hcm.

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>> remember, amanda carpenter is -- she is not -- so you've got to know that. >> that's clear. >> that is clear, in the end. so, again jonathan, great to see you. i remember when you won in -- the it's wonderful being let me unpack it a little bit, nikki haley had to be 12 fellas to get there, okay. nobody thought we could do it. a year and a half ago, we sat down and said let's try to do what the democrats couldn't do. let's try to elect a woman president, the one from south carolina, with the distinguished record that nobody ever thought would be as successful as she has been. now i do understand the dynamics of this race. i would love to have more time to tell you where steve kornacki is exactly right on the exit polls, and where he is off on some. and that will explain some of the donald trump phenomenon we have. so where does nikki go from? here you know, i was one of the

guys who told her, nikki, you don't stand a chance. [silence] and -- it -- tva been looking for people different in the republican party, we just found tim scott a week before. so my point is, underestimating her is, tough but we are running against incumbent in south carolina has we've seen. that number of 65% evangelical is four points off at 61, so it's really close. the education number is really 19 to 20% college educated, i don't know where he went, and in our primary, but -- going on

to michigan, that's were we want. >> 90 folks, most of them were young women. jim, i think you would like every one of them. they are >> well look, i do, i do enjoy young women, i enjoy young men activists as well just to be fair. but let me just ask you -- i'm interested in all of the -- up so you do know the state, you know, two thirds of people, the voters in this example, say that if donald trump is, convicted he is still fit to be in office. so just to go back to jonathan's question, is she hanging in there to? and i think i've said this many times, she is an effective debater she is very disciplined on the stump. but voters don't seem to be buying that, is she hang in there in case donald from his convicted, and is no longer running? or, how does she look at that? i will tell you, just like what reverend al -- numerous times, donald trump has the ability to screw it all up, jim, he does.

>> but how so, how so, how? so because so far. >> when he gets off that teleprompter, the campaign has got to look, out -- under the, dashed what is going to say now. so, my point is, we are staying in, but the first -- three states have voted. we are not willing to just throw the primary up on the voters, and the delegates out. we've got enough money, we've got enough staff, we've got enough energy, and we are trying to save the republican party and the country. we might not be successful at it, but god dam, and we are going to try to go after it and try. >> you know, -- when donald trump gets off the teleprompter, he says things like, i can only see the black ones. kate dawson, thank you for your time. i look forward to having you on the saturday or sunday show one of these days. soon -- polls in south carolina are closing in just over one. our special coverage continues, after a quick break. coverage c after a quick break.

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conversations were looking like with donald trump about the state of the gop race. she told me, that donald trump should not even talk about nikki haley, after tonight, that she, is in igher words, no envoy. this is the time for the trump campaign to team up with the republican national committee, and democrats but also put financial resources of course indicators made the case despite the results that came out of her home state tonight. >> no and void. harsh. tough affair. >> senator jones, let me bring you in here. what do you take away from what you just heard from steve in the exit polls, and also what we heard from vaughn? >> i just think it's typical south carolina. everybody is talking about trying to get independents and democrats, and the fact that if she gets a certain percent, she

may get a little bit of a bump, her problem is that she's got anti haley support not just pro trump, it's now anti-haley. she is challenging donald trump, and i think it's a real problem for her going forward. she has to have hope and 28 or beyond, 2but look, donald trum owns the south. he owns south carolina, he owns alabama, and mississippi, georgia is maybe still a little bit up in the air. but it is his. the thing that's interesting, jonathan, is he's running as an incumbent. that's what you heard your previous guests say. i don't think he's doing that great as an incumbent. ask dean phillips how he's doing challenging an incumbent versus makayla. i think donald trump is in trouble. down in south carolina, but he's in trouble. >> interesting, this is an interesting thing the biden team will watch and democrats will watch amas we've been talking about this evening. david, i want to go to you. you're sitting in the haley campaign right now, you've helped a lot of democrats ran,

move up their reputations within the party. run for national office, is she stay in until she runs out of money? does she stay in until it makes -- what's the point where she leads this race, do you think? >> maybe it is when she runs out of money. i think she's gonna e stand through super tuesday. maybe she'll surprise us and drop out tonight. but with the hopes of maybe i think trump wins all the states, but a massachusetts, virginia, utah, maybe there's places she could get a win on the board. at the end of the day, i don't think i'd ever say this, but marjorie taylor greene's right. trump should've saw nikki haley the night of the new hampshire primary. he's the one that's given her oxygen. he can help answer this question, in a way, if he just ignores her and starts going to wisconsin and michigan, and pennsylvania, in the battleground states. i think for the biden campaign, the longer haley station, there's value there, alagain, a we talked about in the previous segment. you get to see senator john's point, a enlot of republican

primary voters, these aren't general election voters. republican primary voters are voting pagainst donald trump. so you get a really good sense o in the battleground states though, who those voters in those states are like in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina. r particularly if you get to super tuesday, that data gets even richer hain terms of healt formulating a strategy. i think for joe biden to win, he's going to have to get a certain percentage of republican voters. he's good to have to win, not just independent, but senator right independents. i think that's the interesting question. my guess is i don't know, but my sense would be nikki haley is not thinking about this in regards to 2028. i think this is probably it for her. because i think that she's committed an act of betrayal, in trump's republican party. but at the end of the day, i think she probably stays in through super tuesday. after that, i think it's hard, because i think he'll have such an overwhelming delegate lead to make the case. then even some of the big donor money biright dry out.

>> so claire, t even as trump closes in, a big win tonight in south carolina, he's yet to win an overwhelming majority of voters in any of the states he's won so far, if you are on the biden reelection team, what are you watching for tonight as the campaign preps for -- come on, not even a likely rematch, it's just not happening. prepare -- >> rematch is going to happen. >> biden v. trump, two point oh. >> listen, there's a lot of things the biden campaign has to do. they have to stand on offense. they have to continue to contrast, ticontrast, contrast. listen, this thing is over. the person who just spoke is maybe the best delegate counter on the face of the planet, and that is david plouffe. he knows how to count delegates. and what people don't realize, that trump did in the republican party, since 2020, is he changed the rules in some states, to winner-take-all. >> yes. >> it is not like haley is

going to get a percentage of the delegates, the vast majority of the states that are left, whoever gets the most votes, gets all the delegates in that state. so, there is no way haley is going to get the nomination barring some kind of unforeseen circumstance. i think, frankly, she got caught up in this, and then she started to be herself, and say what she d really thought. i do think she has helped biden in that 25% of republicans that have said over and over again in polls they will not vote for trump, she has reminded them why . that will help joe biden, the first tuesday in november. >> the delegate thing is the most important thing, you need delegates to win. trump controls the party, so he made it work for him. the delegate to winner takes all start in a couple weeks. so amanda, let me ask you. haley, does she think -- i thought what bluff said was very interesting, calling it like he sees it. she doesn't match with the magaa

base, does she have a political future in the republican party after this? >> how is she going to handle the pressure when the squeeze really comes on her from the t trump team? house her bird brain that goes off online, but there's going to be a point where the party puts the squeeze on haley, it might be even after she comes out. as your other guests have r pointed out, she has the take of being a republican who worked for trump, who says that he's unfit, and doesn't have the right demeanor, you need to move on, he shouldn't be an offense. those words will be deployed in biden's favor in the general election. donald trump is perfectly set up to be like, oh yeah, nikki haley, she might still say she's on the team. she wasn't, then and she's the reason i lost. this is how i don't understand how she thinks she has a place in trump's party, even though she very desperately wants to preserve that last -- that biden is worse. donald trump's straight-up said, you are barred from maga. donald trump has told so many republicans, you are not welcome in my party, and yet,

and yet, there's so many republicans that -- want to stay on the team, and fight for a future e in that party. that is not there for them. that's what's so confounding about her race, what is the meaning of this? what are you actually fighting for? because you have no place there. >> i think she thinks she can create a new party, which feels challenging at this moment, vaughn hillyard, thank you, appreciate aryou having a same conversation with the one we may have had 13 months ago. really appreciate all your reporting on the ground. we know alyou have a long night ahead kof you. everyone else is sticking around. we have to sneak in a very quick break. we have so much to get to as we countdown to polls closing in south carolina. as a reminder, rachel maddow and the whole primetime team is standing by to pick up our special coverage. stay with us, we'll be right back. verage. stay with us, we'll be right back. as the world keeps moving, help prevent covid-19 from breaking your momentum. you may have already been vaccinated against the flu, but don't forget this season's updated covid-19 shot too.

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♪ ♪ >> we are back with msnbc's special coverage of south carolina's republican primary. rachel maddow and team are standing by to pick things up very shortly, at 6:30. while the polls don't close until the top of the hour, we are seeing some interesting data, alarming, interesting, maybe kind, from the exit polls in the state. notably, 83% of south carolina's republican primary voters say that they believe that donald trump is likely to beat president biden in a general election. 83%. in contrast, 55% of primary voters in the state today say that they think nikki haley is likely to be biden.

that's flies in the face of her electability argument. let's talk more about that. basically, to sum it up, more voters today view trump as being electable in november, according to those exit polls. >> and of course, national polls have consistently shown that nikki haley would fare much better than trump in a general election, against president biden. so we are back now with amanda carpenter, david plouffe, claire mccaskill, and doug jones. so, amanda, haley has pushed the electability argument in the national polls, the national polls seem to back it up that she would fare better against donald -- against president biden, than donald trump, so why doesn't that argument seem to register with these voters? given what the starting number jen just read. >> maybe because there's a good chunk of them that still believe donald trump won the 2020 election. -- >> two thirds. >> the kayleigh isn't the first major national republican that has tried to make the case to voters that donald trump is not electable, therefore, chews me.

the argument is that he's bad for the party, as evidenced by the midterms in 2018, 2020, 2022. that doesn't really change voters minds, because you are not actually explaining why he's bad for the country. saying he's bad for the party, for people that believe that he did a good job on policy, that everyone told lies about him, the world's just out to get him, doesn't fly. there needs to be more honest arguments to voters that treat them like thinking adults that they are, about how donald trump threatens our institutions, how he is a source of all this divisiveness. why january 6th was not just some kind of conspiracy by the fbi, but actually was a travesty, because the president of the united states misled and lied to republican voters. it's the kind of stuff that liz cheney said, with all the truth and all the power in the world, my aren't more people talking like her, straight with those voters? so that we can actually have a change, rather than just relying on argument, while, he

can't win. as he beats me in this primary. >> all a good question. senator, i want to go to you, you actually run and won a campaign. that big number, i don't want to overcook it, but 83% of people, that's a huge number, that so many of south carolina's republican primary voters think that donald trump is likely to beat president biden. if polling doesn't fare that out, are they ultimately asking for a loss to placate their -- what do you make of that number? >> i think they are just fine, and to all of the lies, all the misinformation, everything that amanda was just talking about. they have bought in it, lock, stock, and barrel. they bought into the fact that joe biden is not a legitimate president. they bought into the fact that january 6th insurrection was really a group of tourists coming through that maybe got a little rowdy. it's unbelievable, you guys, it's crazy we're having this conversation, if you really think about it, that we are trying to -- that the republican -- when does the republican national committee going to squeeze out there leading candidate, who was

impeached twice as a president, has formed million dollars in fines against him for fraud, rape, and slander, and is indicted in about 90 felony counts. that's what these folks are just blind to. it's a stunning development, in american politics. >> call that out, just who they are pushing for, and who the republican electorate is moving towards nominating. >> it's a presidential election. >> clare, jump in here, i'm sitting here looking at two numbers that look very similar. you have 69% of the folks who voted today are republicans, 31% are non republicans. that tracks with 65% of the folks who voted saying that president biden is not the legitimate elected president in the united states. >> exactly. >> 32% saying that, yeah, actually, president biden is the legitimate elected president of the united states. is south carolina on earth to?

and we are on earth one? , >> listen, let me just say this, everyone needs to take a deep breath and remember that primary voters are not general election voters. there's no question, my dear friend, dog, is right. the base of the republican party is buying what trump is selling. they have a different reality than most of us do. they have a different reality, frankly, and most independent voters, most swing state voters that will decide this election, so, what you are seeing here is you are seeing trumps people, in a state that trump dominates, and they are the ones that are coming out to vote, the number that i think will be most interesting in the biden campaign is what percent of south carolina bonus actually showed up today. if it's not a big number, if it's not a number that shows

the kind of enthusiasm for donald trump beyond his base, then everyone should just say, okay, this is okay. we just have a bunch of really big trumpers in south carolina, and they've been egged on by weirdo lindsey graham and tim scott, and the governor. so it is what it is. but it isn't the swing voters that will decide the election. >> this is such an important point, thank you, claire mccaskill, for bringing us blacked to planet earth. south carolina is not a swing state. this is also not general election voters, the electorate for the election in november is much different, much broader, what's interesting is the point david plouffe often makes, that trump is punching down at nikki haley, and the general election has started. and he's not expanding his base of voters, which i think is an important point for the biden team to remember. >> yeah, yeah, absolutely.

david plouffe, claire mccaskill, amanda carpenter, doug jones, the avengers, thank you all. it was so fun hanging out with you today for the last couple of hours. we even matched. that does it for us. but rachel maddow and team are standing by for full coverage as we countdown the polls closing in south carolina, in just 35 minutes. rachel picks up the coverage after a very quick break. don't go anywhere. a very quick don't go anywhere.

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