you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? you can get 2 unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. all on the most reliable 5g mobile network, nationwide. wireless that works for you. get the new samsung galaxy s24 on comcast business mobile. save big with up to $500 off an eligible samsung device with a qualifying trade-in. don't wait! call, click or visit an xfinity store. welcome back the another hour of chris jansing reports. ahead for us on this super tuesday. feeling competitive in california. the key races that could decide control of the house in november and the senate seat that has democrats trying to fend off a baseball great. haley's last stand.

can virginia voters help her stop a trump super tuesday sweep and keep her in this race? tracking the protest vote. how the president's handling of the war in gaza could affect today's primary in minnesota. and big clues for a battleground. why the race for governor in north carolina could offer a preview of the presidential match-up. our nbc news reporters are fanned out across the country as millions head to the polls on the largest day of voting outside of the general election. and we start in california where high stakes swing races could determine the balance of power in congress. what are you hearing there? >> reporter: we've moved to downtown los angeles. it's a big, big day for california politics, but not so big when it comes to turnout. something we were expecting on primary day. it's going to get very dark

because this is, black box theatre here, but come on in. this is where the polling location is. most of the people we've seen today come in and drop off ballots. california does an incredible job of mailing those out. if you don't have one, you can come and vote the day of the primary, but for the most part, we've been here for about an hour. only seen about three people come in. we've got to go back outside so pardon me. but everybody in california is really talking about that senate race for dianne feinstein's seat. that senate race, the stakes could not be higher. we have three members of the house that have vacated their seats in order to run for dianne feinstein's seat. adam schiff, katie porter, as well as barbara lee. and that has become one of the most expensive races in u.s. history. for the senate, a lot of that

money coming from adam schiff, who is the front-runner and there's a lot of speculation and a lot of accusations going around right now against adam schiff because of his attack ads against steve garvey. for those unfamiliar with how california's primary system works, this is a jungle primary. that means everybody's thrown together on a nonpartisan ballot and the top ten a lot of times in this deep blue state, its two democrats will go on to the general election. in this case, we've seen adam schiff use a lot of that money to attack steve garvey and say he is too conservative. that he voted for donald trump. a lot of the calculus from poll watchers and political insiders is that he's doing that so that he turns out the republican party vote who are sometimes apathetic when it comes to places like here in los angeles,

to get out and vote for garvey. we saw schiff a little earlier at his polling site where he cast his ballot and we asked him about that. take a listen. >> we're on the same ballot. there were only four of us that qualified to make it on the debate stage including steve garvey, he is on fox all the time attacking me. i'm distinguishing from my colleagues on leadership and effectiveness, but i'm not shying away from going after steve garvey and how he is out of step with california. >> reporter: not shying away from going after steve garvey. dodger stadium is that way. garvey has a lot of recognition in this state from his days when he played for the dodgers. as to how he's going to do with this match-up between these three power houses from the house running for the senate now is still yet to be seen. >> going to be an interesting night. thank you. we'll have a lot more on that race in just a little bit but

for now, let's head to virginia where nikki haley is looking to beat expectations and potentially stop a trump super tuesday sweep. gary has been on the road all across the commonwealth. i've seen you in the car talking as you go. you finally are stable. what should we be watching for tonight? >> reporter: >> so, chris, we are outside of fredericksburg, in rico county earlier and we're headed up to fairfax later today. but one thing we've heard everywhere we've been is the impact this open primary here in virginia is having on the potential success of haley. it's an open primary. that means voters can walk in, pick which they want to vote for. republican or democrat. they don't have to be registered. this is important for a few reasons. first, it's because of the anger and frustration we're hearing from voters about the democratic party and about joe biden right now. voters we talk so say they are not having their concerns listened to. that's what they believe.

especially as it relates to immigration and as it relates to the economy. the other thing we're hearing is the idea that democrats can simply vote for haley in the republican primary. so it's not even as much a throw haley vote as it is an anti trump vote. here's what one voter had to say. >> i'm not sure. i'm not sure. i don't know what to do. i'm hoping that somehow it works out that nikki gets the nomination. i don't know how that could happen, but there's a lot going on. in the court system and everything. so we just have to kind of day by day. i think it's good that you know, she gets some support though. >> reporter: so as we are seeing, nikki haley was here in virginia over the weekend. donald trump was here over the weekend. they're both making big plays for the state. the people that are are the surrogates for these candidates.

we are not seeing the get out the vote effort that we saw even in the 2023 off year election for the state house races where governor youngkin and the virginia republican party put millions of dollars into a get out the vote effort. >> i covered that race. that is interesting. sounds like exact opposite of what we're seeing today. thank you. let's go to minnesota now where president biden could be facing another protest vote over his steadfast support for israel. jesse kirsch is reporting for us there. how big could this protest vote be? >> reporter: we are in a polling location right now in plymouth. someone just is submitting their ballot right now. we've got another person here. this is the 200th person who's about to vote so very exciting at this polling location in the suburbs of minneapolis.

this is a sample ballot. uncommitted. we're going to step outside because we have to go outside to talk about policy and the candidates directly. that's what the team here has asked us to do. the potential that there could be a substantial number of voters who are uncommitted, voicing opposition to president biden's stance on the war in gaza right now. we spoke with someone helping to organize that effort. he said they've been doing outreach by phone, e-mail. they've been going to friday services at mosques to talk to people. this gentleman told me he's spoken to people who are asking about voting. they have never voted but are going to do so because of the war in gaza. we've also spoke with a woman who voted here earlier who said when she started hearing about the effort here in minnesota, she decided she was going to

vote uncommitted and she did a short time ago. we don't have numbers yet on what's going to happen but one of the organizers of the uncommitted vote estimates that hundreds of thousands of people in minnesota will have been reached out to in some form by tonight. so potentially, you could see a big number off of that, but we don't have the hard numbers on that yet but they've done a good amount of outreach. another thing we've been watching is this is where dean phillips cast his ballot for himself earlier today. he also put out a somewhat cryptic tweet that seemed to potentially be insinuating that he could be making a decision about his campaign's feature in the days ahead. of course, he does not have delegates at this point in the presidential primary. uncommitted has more delegates than he does. we talked to the congressman what about he's going to be doing moving forward. here's part of what he shared with us. >> this was a mission of principle and winning is

relative. i recognize i'm not winning any delegates or states but the mission is to wake people up from a delusion propagated by a lot of people with a vested interested in maintaining it. democrats who vote in primaries have made the decision. they absolutely favor joe biden. the sad truth is joe biden's not well positioned to win the eleconeen sing that for a year and a half. >> reporter: bottom line for congressman phillips, whatever he does will be to make sure former president trump does not become the next president of the united states. chris? >> thank you. in north carolina meantime, a high stakes governor's race is being closely watched for clues it could offer about the swing state for november. shaquielle brewster is on the ground talking to voters in greensboro, north carolina. why is this governor's race getting so much attention? >> reporter: well, chris, i know all the attention today is about the primary but this is a gubernatorial election that is expected to be one of the most

competitive once we get to november. so today is all about each party and voters in each party deciding on who they believe the best candidate is to face off in november. on the republican side, you have former president trump who's backing lieutenant governor mark robinson. lieutenant governor is a very outspoken figure. he's had to clarify antisemitic remarks. he's made comments seen as derogatory towards the lgbt community. he's gone up against bill graham and dale fallwell who's making the case he's too extreme for a general election match up. on the democratic side, you have roy cooper who is endorsing the attorney general. i want you to listen to what voters have been telling me about how they're viewing this match-up. for the governor's race, who did you support in that primary?

was it mark robinson? >> it was. >> i voted for fallwell and i'm not a mark robinson fan. again. it's kind of an odd thing. i think i'm voting against people. which maybe is not a good thing, but that's what's happened. >> everything mark robinson stands for is again, not anything i want to believe in. >> i don't think the three candidates are really very strong. just really a shot in the dark for me. >> reporter: and then when you go further down the ballot, there's some competitive legislative primaries going on. here in north carolina, there's a new map, republican legislature of building in more gop friendly seats. a lot of open seats. there's also a competitive race that can help determine control of congress once we get to november. so a lot of races here in north

carolina as of course still a lot of focus is at the presidential level, chris. >> always good to see you. thank you. in 60 seconds, he's the former baseball star disrupting the california senate race. so why is the major question about steve garvey these days where is he? but first, how voters in north carolina and utah are feeling about a likely biden trump rematch. take a listen including this first voter who explains why he has to vote biden. >> whether i agree or disagree, what he may have done, may do in his office, he brings a sense of calmness to the whole process. >> biden. >> '24? >> i want neither. >> biden. >> why? >> it's kind of the lesser of two evils in my opinion. not that i would rather vote for either of them. not that i would rather vote for either of them you know, when i take the bike out like this, all my stresses just melt away.

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where is steve garvey? at 75 years old, the rookie politician running as a republican for california senate has barely been seen. almost no events, no discernible strategy, not a single tv ad and yet he's leading in a recent poll in a race where the two top finishers regardless of party will be on november's ballot. how has he done it? he has name recognition. something he talked about in a brief interview last night in the friendly territory of fox news. >> built teams, championship teams. we're going to do this again because at one time, california was the heart beat of america and it's not that now. >> here's the problem garvey presents for democrats. even though california hasn't elected a republican to

statewide office in decades, the secretary of state's office says gop registration is now up. he could energize turnout enough to help in some down ballot races. i'm joined by former obama deputy white house press secretary, bill burton, and david jolly is here with me. great to have you here, guys. bill, as i'm trying to figure out how you run a campaign in california successfully with no paid tv ads, i have to ask what's the power of name recognition? i mean, look, former president trump sure had a lot of it and he wasn't taken that seriously at first but look where we are now. >> he's the beneficiary of what has been a smart strategy by adam schiff to elevate his name with millions in tv advertising. katie porter is doing the same thing with eric hurley, spending

millions from our super pac to crowd out garvey from getting the top spot. schiff ran a strategy and steve garvey is certainly benefitting from it but there's no chance he wins in november. >> porter, as you know, is not happy about the schiff strategy, but there are other people who are concerned. they're looking at the secretary of state's website, which is showing republican registration is up. can it be a problem down ballot for democrats? >> look, a high profile republican will help enthusiasm among california republicans. no question about that. i think if you turn those numbers upside down though, schiff, porter, and three, have 70% of the vote so democrats have every reason to feel they're in a good spot. garvey, what i like in him, too, when you see that interview and see somebody who brings a lot of profile, a lot of background, a little substance. i was a steve garvey baseball fan in the '70s and '80s. so many people were. it reminds me of the tom suozzi special election where republicans nominated someone

with an incredible profile on paper but kept her out of the press. out of the media and just relied on the negative partisanship to rule the day. schiff is relying on negative partisanship to have garvey be one of the top two tonight. if it's schiff and garvey, adam schiff ends up in the united states senate. >> you know, bill, last night's interview on fox with garvey was three questions. he spoke for less than two minutes. let's just say it wasn't a wide ranging conversation. in january when asked what the government is doing wrong, he said he'll find that out in the senate. does he really not know anything or is that a strategy? stick to the generalities, win support beyond the base. hope voters are looking for someone new and different. >> i mean, look. former congressman jolly calling steve garvey a man of little substance with the most generous way to describe what garvey

looked like in that interview. he's not particularly sophisticated politician and never really had a chance in this race. hasn't run much in the campaign. i don't think it's a strategy. i think that's how steve garvey is showing up. but i would not take away from the strength of the schiff campaign. schiff was very smart in how he ran his campaign, a strategy, and it's worked. looks like it's going to help make him united states senator from california. >> do you think he could hurt down ballot? >> as a partisan democrat, don't love seeing the republican registration grow, but those numbers are pretty small if you take a look inside. so i don't know that it will be all that meaningful in those congressional races. >> so, the little that garvey is out there, he is on topic, i think. he's talking about immigration. the economy. here's a little more of that interview. >> people of california who have

been sprezed by one party are mad. i said to them, let me fight crime in the streets for you. get the homeless off the streets and get care for them. let me help fight the border. >> do you have to, david, in this day and age, get specific? is he okay? it's a battle of the border. i'm going to fight it there. >> maybe he's going to help the california homeless by selling his memorabilia. this is true of the suozzi race, there's a lot of messaging going into november and what they do know, the economy and border are two issues republicans want to run on. which is why i actually think joe biden needs to take control of those conversations. he has a good message on the economy if he leans into it and he was the guy who just tried to lead this bipartisan border security bill. >> but he tried to take a tour on bidenomics and it didn't get him anywhere. >> if you continue to lose on

that issue, you're going to lose the election. >> what do you think, bill, real quick. >> i think president biden has a story to tell on immigration, on crime, on homelessness, on the border. he's going to be able to tell it. hasn't spent much money on the campaign so far. has a huge spending advantage. i'll you'll see that coming out of the state of the union. >> bill and david, you're going to stick around. coming up, the first election in alabama after the major ivf ruling where the judge behind it is now too old to run again. well, here's what voters had to say when asked about whether age is a factor in 2024. we comee of cowboys. (♪♪) when i see all of us out here on this ranch, i see how far our legacy can go. (♪♪)

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if there's one overriding message today out of alabama's ivf ruling, it's the importance of voting in state supreme court races. five of that state's nine seats on the all republican supreme court are up for election including the chief justice's seat. the current chief justice, tom parker, who cited bible verses in his opinion in the ivf case, is too old under the state's constitution to run again. dasha burns is reporting from montgomery, alabama. how much is the ivf controversy looming over the super tuesday contest today? >> reporter: well, it's certainly looming, chris, but perhaps differently here in alabama than it is across the country. look, let's remember this is a case that was ruled here in

alabama. the deep red, religious south. there are a lot of folks who agree with the supreme court decision who do believe that embryos are children. there are also plenty that disagree. we've had a wide array of conversations with folks at the polls today. take a listen. do you think people who want to have children should have access to ivf? >> i don't know about that because i believe in god put them when they want them. if they supposed to have a baby, let god do the work. >> reporter: it's a tough spot for you. >> it is. it is. i mean, abortion and the whole thing, i do think they're children. >> reporter: how important is that issue of bodily autonomy, reproductive rights for you as you're voting today but also in november? >> it has priority. it doesn't have the highest priority, but it does simply because people are making

decisions without i think looking at the whole spectrum of what it will do to families. >> reporter: chris, one thing i've been learning as i've been talking to voters about this is there's a bit of a disconnect with a lot of folks between this ruling by the alabama state supreme court and what's happening at ivf clinics. many clinics now in alabama on pause so families are really stuck and scared and confused but they're not necessarily connecting the two. i have a gentleman who said to me, yes, i agree with the ruling but then confidently saying yes, i do think everyone should have access to ivf. so for democrats who are trying to use this issue as a rallying cry to gather voters ahead of november, they need to do a really good job of educating people to help connect the dots of how state supreme courts, how rulings like this can have an impact beyond just what's on the

paper. and how it all does connect to the fall of roe v. wade because not everyone is really understanding that as they go to the polls today. at least from the conversations i'm having, chris. >> thank you so much. joining us now, executive director of swing left, an organization that gets people to volunteer to swing various state houses, congress', left. you're pushing for a trifecta. house, senate, white house. you've gone a long way in the years you've been operating. how important is the fight over reproductive rights when you look at these overall? >> thank you so much for the great question, chris. when we surveyed our one million members in our over 500 volunteer-led groups around the country about what is motivating them to take historic levels of action, survey after survey shows that reproductive freedom is their top issue.

it's followed by the fight for democracy, but basically, our volunteer numbers skyrocketed in the days immediately following the dobbs decision then didn't ever come back down. they've just been growing and growing. i think you know, as your previous guest alluded to in terms of the national sentiment around more extreme measures like the alabama supreme court decision on ivf, those are all galvanizing our volunteers to knock on more doors, make more phone calls, write more letters and do so early because of just how much is at stake this november. our volunteers don't want to let a single day go by. >> i want to ask you about that because for all the issues mote motivating people, clearly reproductive rights is one. also something i saw as the meth electorate. people are so tired. just disgusted with the way things are. the question is do they feel like they don't have a good choice and will they stay home?

so you're launching a new national voter campaign this week with a really old school technique. a letter writing campaign. i know this isn't the first time swing left has done something like this. what is it that you have found about a handwritten letter that you see can breakthrough in this digital age, this age of so much noise in politics? >> you know, we have found and we measure each of these letter writing campaigns that are led by our affiliate, nonpartisan affiliate organization, vote forward. we measure the impact on these letters on turning out voters who may not be willing to vote or not motivated to vote for whatever reason that might be. and we've seen a really incredible impact of these letters on turning up the dial from all levels of the ballot. past presidential election, we wrote over 20 million letters to voters all around the country. and we saw significant, measurable impact on turning out

those voters. we've also seen that impact down ballot. and so you know for us, what we're going to be looking at this cycle is not just how do we make sure that folks who you know, especially what we're calling surge voters, voters who didn't vote in 2016 but have been turning out in elections ever since then, how do we make sure these folks who are antitrump get out to the polls to support biden but also, how do we make sure that the folks who are motivated maybe by a down ballot race, how to make sure those folks are turning out and motivated by the bottom of the ballot, but also helping to make sure we are re-electing joe biden and kamala harris to the top of the ticket. the last thing is writing these letters is tremendously fun. our volunteers don't just do it for the impact even though that's what gets them to sign up. they can write these from home. i myself, i've got a newborn

baby who's three and a half weeks old. time is something i don't have in great supply. you can write those letters when my baby and toddler are asleep for those short windows of sleep we've got. or folks can write those letters in community. so folks really, really enjoy this high impact tactic and folks can sign up at votefwd.org to join our movement. >> write a letter, run a national grass roots organization and have a young baby. congratulations on that, and thanks for coming on the progra appreciate it. we have breaking news coming in. arizona senator, kirsten sinema, announcing she will not be running for re-election. vaughn, this was basically a three-way race. the latest poll i saw, sinema was third, but tell me what's happening here. >> reporter: right. just in the last couple of hours, our colleague on capitol hill was getting some

grumblings. we were talking about the fact that sinema could very well announce she would not be seeking re-election for the u.s. senate in 2024 and we in a video just posted by the arizona senator online, she confirmed that in fact, she is going to step aside and not challenge the likes of republican kari lake and the democrat. it was just a year ago that she changed her party affiliation to become an independent. she was going to be facing a democratic interparty challenge from gieg. with support of just 15 to 25% losing. now, of course, it was sinema who was on the front lines of pushing for that bipartisan border package here over the last several months and that was, to our understanding, going to be a key indicator of whether she would seek re-election or not. in this three minute video

posted online by sinema, it is quite telling. she says despite modernizing our infrastructure, ensuring clean water, delivering good jobs, americans still choose to retreat farther to their partisan corners. these solutions are considered failures because they're too much or not enough. it's all or nothing. compromise is a dirty word. i believe in my approach, but it's not what americans want right now. of course, sinema was on the front lines, chris, of helping pass the chips act for semiconductor manufacturing, a bipartisan infrastructure bill and gun legislation and she led the charge to pass the respect for marriage act. senator sinema, you know, i talked with her just one week before she entered the united states congress as a house member back in 2012 and she told me at the time she wanted to represent arizona in an independent, bipartisan way. you could say over the course of the last ten years, she did just

that. of course, she met the eyre of a great many democrats around the country. refusing to pass filibuster reform that would have allowed for the protection of abortion around the country, to codify roe v. wade. she of course refused to banish the filibuster for the purposes of passing voting rights reforms much to the chagrin of many democrats including guy yay go. as a result, sinema, who now along with joe manchin, will not be returning to the u.s. senate in 2025. those were the two democrats who were on the front lines of actually negotiating with republicans up on capitol hill and it was senator sinema in this video who gave shutouts to the likes of even texas senator cornyn who you often saw alongside of her on capitol hill and on the border, who was instrumental in trying to help pass some of the border measures that she was seeking to produce.

and so for senator sinema, she completed her video by saying for 20 years, she fought to represent the people of arizona to the extent she could. she was in the anthony a state legislature for ten years before that. it is quite a career she put together between arizona and her time in washington, d.c. the question here is clearly senator sinema implying that americans are not looking for somebody like her but they're looking for people that play to their partisan corners and the question is what could sinema do next beyond 2024? she is still very young and there are many options ahead of her. >> stick with us. i want to bring in on the phone, claire mccaskill. for people who may be surprised by this, claire, you are not among them. you've said on your how to win podcast i think this past week, that it was obvious to you sinema was not running for re-election. well, aren't you clever. and clearly, you're not surprised. but what do you think's going on

here? what was so obvious to you? >> well, what was obvious to me is that she has the ability to raise a lot of money because there's a lot of folks in the country that appreciated her approach, which was always try to find middle ground. always find the compromises. i also realized that she had chartered a private plane with government money for her staff for a very expensive flight and that didn't feel like to me somebody who was preparing for a re-election in a very tough state. and she hadn't tried collecting signatures yet. you have to collect signatures to get on the ballot in arizona. and her polling. all that added up to me as a fairly loud signal that she was going to pass on running for re-election. i want to give her credit and props for how hard she worked to get compromises. whether it was gun legislation

or infrastructure or a number of other pieces of legislation. she really did do what more people ought to do and that is you know, not make it perfect but solve problems. and now there's going to be a very clear race between a maga trump i love him so much, he is the best, kari lake versus someone who i think is more in line with most of the people in arizona. i'm. >> i'm curious because this was always going to be a really nasty three-way race, an expensive race for a lot of people one of the most key senate races of the year. now that it is one on one, i don't know if it's easier, but clearer race? >> well, it's a clearer contrast. and the people who were supporting sinema have to do a

real gut check and say do they want a trump ak light? is that what they really want? somebody who is totally in on the ridiculous claims in arizona about voter fraud and trump had won and all of that nonsense? so i think it's a contrast. i think her making this decision ought to be a little bit of wake up call to people like no labels and rfk and some of these others that think somehow a third party bid is good for our country right now. it is not. it makes it harder for i think the democratic party to prevail. and i think she saw the writing on the wall and realized she wasn't even going to be that happy if she came back because everybody's afraid of ever agreeing with the other side. >> one of our great political analysts who saw the writing on the wall. senator mccaskill. the podcast that you need to listen to if you want to know this stuff before it happens is how to win in 2024.

thank you so much for calling in. again, kirsten sinema has decided not to run again. here's a little bit of the announcement she just posted on social media. >> compromise is a dirty word. we've arrived at that cross road and we chose anger and division. i believe in my approach. but it's not what america wants right now. i love arizona. and i am so proud of what we've delivered. because i choose civility, understanding, listening, working together to get stuff done, i will leave the senate at the end of this year. >> i want to bring back bill burton and the great former florida congressman who served, right, with sinema? >> i did. >> does this surprise you at all?

>> i could have seen her go either way. claire was right. the money wasn't there, the polling wasn't there. she was facing deadlines. she's always been a remarkably independent person though, which made me think maybe she's give it a fight. the first openly bisexual member of congress. someone who struggled with homelessness. a story that if you stand in the middle of the road in politics, you get run over. >> what she said compromise is a dirty word, is that at the heart of what we're seeing today? >> that could -- let's also recognize that for some voters, she is a lightning rod because she obstructed the biden agenda in the early years and if you're a strong democratic voter, you said wait. i thought sinema was with us. and she wasn't all the time. and so you're glad to see her go. but you also want her in the camp and rubin said look, i

would love sinema to join with me in the democratic party to defeat lake. >> let me read a little bit of that statement. arizona is at a cross roads -- defending our democracy. all this and more is on the line. that's why democrats, independents, and republicans alike are coming together and rejecting lake and her dangerous positions. i welcome all arizona including senator sinema to join me in that mission. >> do you think, bill burton, if she's going to endorse, that gallego is more likely than lake? if i'm looking at that poll where he leads 36, lake, 30, sinema, 21, that is a huge portion. 21% of vote that's going to go somewhere. where's it going to go, bill? >> hopefully the lion's share of that goes to gallego.

this does make the road easier for him, but arizona is still a tough state. i'd also point out in sinema's statement that she answered maybe two questions. one of whether or not she's running for re-election and one for president. didn't sound like someone who was looking to be a presidential candidate. in arizona, this sets up a clear fight between lake who's for abortion bans even in cases of rape and incest. called january 6th a staged riot. and gallego, a progressive who's going to be able to get things done in washington. >> i think in recent weeks, among the people who have endorsed lake are rand paul, matthew gaetz. what does this race look like now. >> reporter: i think republicans realize this seat is going to be consequential to their efforts to hold on to the u.s. senate. for lake, this is a candidate

who i know that republicans were looking for an alternative to after she lost to the gubernatorial race a year ago, but lake's popularity within the arizona republican electorate is still high and that is where there is one other opponent. mark lamb. the sheriff. he is running against lake. polling has indicated she's the favorite here. there's a fund-raiser with 17 senators taking place literally this wednesday night in washington, d.c. for lake and but in a head to head match-up, i think this is really a testament of our time. if somebody told me a few years ago that congressman gallego would have a shot to win the statewide race, i think i'd ask you who is he running against on the republican side. lake is a good explanation of that. polling shows now coming out of arizona that she's up by several points over lake because she is at this point in time, largely cemented her reputation here in

the state. when you're looking at sinema in that 15 to 25% support, meghan mccain a week ago said she was on team sinema. when you look at the state of arizona, go back to doug deucey's last win, i think that is part of that independent even conservative, anti trump conservative part of the arizona electorate that was consequential in getting sinema her win in 2020 and joe biden his win in 2020 in arizona. and so far, you have seen a republican party not move away from that tenor of politics on their side. and you've seen jeff flake, john mccain leave the republican party and potentially the consequences of a head to head match-up is that they could lose a senate race for the fourth time in a row. >> all right, so david and bill, i'm going to read a tweet to you

and in our closing of this big news that sinema is not going run for re-election, tell me what you think. i'll start with you, david. rick wilson. start the clock on when no labels org says sinema will be their nominee. what do you think? >> again, she's a bit of a wildcat so maybe she's going to entertain that. people will be saying what about nikki haley, sinema. something claire said is correct. this is the wrong election to run a minor party, third party race for the white house. there is a majority of the country, over 40%, says i don't want to be a part of either party. i want something new but it is different to try to define that and run for president as an independent. that simply didn't work. sinema will soon learn that. >> quickly, bill. this is something who is a marathoner. a triathlete. she is competitive.

any chance? >> she's a fighter but i think she has come clues that suggest she's not going to run for president. >> bill, vaughn, thank you, guys. david, please stick around. coming up, today is not just about voters picking nominees. it's also about who the republican party wants to keep from winning. like a candidate who allegedly tried to hit someone with a car. we'll explain next on chris jansing reports only on msnbc. n jansing reports only on msnbc. and schedule with safelite, because you can track us and see exactly when we'll be there. >> woman: i have a few more minutes. let's go! >> tech vo: that's service that fits your schedule. go to safelite.com. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ liberty mutual customized my car insurance and i saved hundreds. that's great. i know, i've bee telling everyone. baby: liberty. oh! baby: liberty. how many people did you tell? only pay for what you need. jingle: ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ baby: ♪ liberty. ♪ wanna know how i get this glow?! i get ready with

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then we hit the road and never stopped. you shared with me your frustration at working harder to barely get by and afford a place to live. your fears for our democracy and freedoms and your dreams for yourself, your family, and the future. it is not too late to realize those dreams. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message because together we can still get big things done. "overflowing with ideas and energy." that's the san francisco chronicle endorsing democrat katie porter for senate over all other options. porter is "easily the most impressive candidate." "known for her grilling of corporate executives." with "deep policy knowledge." katie porter's housing plan has "bipartisan-friendly ideas to bring homebuilding costs down." and the chronicle praises "her ideas to end soft corruption in politics." let's shake up the senate. with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message.

republicans are working in overdrive to shutout what they see as troublemakers in their own party from getting on the ticket in november. a couple of examples, quote, a woman who allegedly tried to hit her ex-husband with a car, a 30-year-old who marketed a conspiracy theory movie, and a pastor who's previous campaign was mired in election fraud. the group that has been a proverbial thorn in the side of republican leadership for years forcing the resignation of john boehner, kevin mccarthy and opposing deals under the new speaker, mike johnson. and now there are two groups of gop megadonors who have spent $6 million to target those republican candidates they see as problematic.

former congressman, david jolly, is back with us. this is a party that backed george santos until they didn't. but how much of a mess do you have to be to be targeted like this? >> it goes back to the failed red wave to keep the margins so small in the house. for a decade or more, john boehner, paul ryan, have tried to stop the election of these candidates. the difference is they've taken control. the pirates have taken control of the ship. so this effort is just to stop the bleeding then try to create a foundation where they can return the caucus to governing conservatives, maga, whatever you want to call them. however, this is the group that controls the house that the votes of kevin mccarthy that put mike johnson in office. mccarthy has a lot of money to spend to make sure they don't get back. >> is the real problem now they can do that because they have the speakership? a real concern is you don't take

the house in november. >> oh, of course. look, i think speaker jeffries might be something we're seeing come november 6th because the house is controlled by maga, by the freedom caucus members, but this is the direction of the republican party. you can look at the last ten to 15 years from the emergence of the tea party to the foundation of the freedom caucus to now the fact the freedom caucus is able to control the levers of governing. this is the governing under donald trump's america. if you're a reasonable governing person, democrat, republican, whatever, good for these megadonors but it's heading in the direction of these crazy candidates. >> similarly, msnbc political analyst charlie sykes wrote an op-ed piece. the republican voters don't want normal and trump's expected sweet will put an exclamation point on the develop's full embrace of the chaos that will define the next year.

electability. all in all, they'd rather have the trump show. >> and maybe joe biden does, too. we are watching all the internal debate over joe biden and how he runs against donald trump and the republicans. is it on the economy, his leadership on the recent border deal or is it simple normalcy versus chaos? nikki haley's voters tonight are likely going to have to face a question. do they stay with republicans and donald trump or go for the normal platform they've been endorsing. do they continue to reject trumpism? that is the coalition that joe biden might be betting on. who is the nikki haley joe biden voter? it's probably somebody that wants normal. not chaos. >> we keep hearing and we have less than a minute. we keep hearing about the split of people who vote in the primary and the general. is there much of a distinction? >> there is. what you see in november is what you called persuadables. it's the 6 to 8% of the country whose vote is up for grabs.

it's been there in '18, '20, and '22 and will be there in '24 if donald trump reminds them why they want to be part of the democratic coalition. >> david, i appreciate you. thank you very much. rachel maddow and team will have full analysis of super tuesday breaking down the results. our special coverage begins tonight at 6:00 p.m. and we have, look at that. all those reporters across the country taking the pulse of the people as donald trump and joe biden seem headed for a rematch. so stay tuned for that and make sure to join chris jansing reports every weekday from 1:00 to 3:00 p.m. eastern. our super tuesday coverage continues with katy tur reports right after this short break. t k nurtec odt may help. it's the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks.

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good to be with you. i'm katy tur. it is super tuesday but there's big, breaking news from a state that is not voting today. arizona where former democratic senator turned independent, kirsten sinema, has just announced she's not running for re-election this year. >> compromise is a dirty word. we've arrived at that cross road and we chose anger and division. i believe in my approach but it's not what america wts