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tv   Jose Diaz- Balart Reports  MSNBC  March 6, 2024 8:00am-9:00am PST

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11:00 a.m. eastern, 8:00 a.m. pacific. i'm jose diaz-balart alongside my friends and colleagues ana cabrera here in new york and andrea mitchell live from washington. and just in the last hour, the contentious battle for the white house came to a close. donald trump is the party's presumptive nominee. >> it comes as former u.n. ambassador nikki haley suspended her presidential bid just this morning after trump dominated on super tuesday. >> it is now up to donald trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. and i hope he does that. at its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away.
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and our conservative cause badly needs more people. this is now his time for choosing. >> haley ended her historic campaign as the first woman in republican primary contest in the gop's history. but she only managed to win two races, vermont and washington, d.c., after failing to bid a coalition large enough to overcome donald trump's massive support within the republican party. >> and now with haley's exit, november's general election takes shape. all signs now point to another showdown between joe biden and donald trump. >> and joining us now, nbc's ali vitali, live from nikki haley's campaign headquarters and daniel island, south carolina, nbc news correspondent vaughn hillyard joins us, and mark murray and live from washington nbc news capitol hill correspondent julie tsirkin. ali, what have you heard from the haley campaign about what
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went into the decision to drop out today? >> reporter: i keep hearing this phrase about righteous fights and the idea this was a just campaign on the right side of the republican party's history right now. essentially the idea that nikki haley was offering the party something that wasn't trump and now this dropout is the acceptance of the fact that the party said no thank you, we're good with what we had. i do think that you know i often think about these things in the larger arc of political history, especially as it portends to women and executive office. and i think it is really important for us to look at the fact that as andrea mentioned, haley made history in her bid, not just for being the only woman who ran in this primary, but also being the first republican woman to ever win any republican primaries ever. she didn't just do that once in d.c., she did that in vermont last night as well. of course, we know that that was not enough to get her the
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nomination. that still remains a stone unturned in the annals of history for women on the republican side of the parties. but it is substantial and it is notable. i do think there is also research that is worth mentioning at least in this context of her leaving the race that historically women who lose elections tend to face a harder road back politically than their male counterparts. that's because we're used to seeing men lose when they run because in most elections, one person wins, and one person loses, and over the course of history, more men have run than women. so much so on the republican side that usually it is the person who comes in second, effectively losing in the primary, who ends up being the nominee the next time around. because the person in second right now was the woman, i do think it is going to be interesting to see what her political future holds. i also think that the research shows us that voters won't hold a loss against female candidates, but it does depend what they do after. and this may seem like an unfair
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double standard, but generally voters respond positively to female candidates at least according to research from the barbara lee family foundation, that if they're working on behalf of their community as opposed to furthering themselves with high paying gigs or book deals after, voters tend to respond more positively and so it is not just a question of, oh, will haley endorse or not, but also what does she do after leaving this race? that's all going to be really important to her future votes. >> do you have any insight into what she plans to do next? and what are you hearing about what it might take for her to endorse donald trump? >> reporter: she sort of issued that ultimatum here, ana, basically saying that she is a conservative republican, she said she has always voted for her party's nominee. and then she proceeded to not endorse the man who is likely to hold that mantle in an official capacity just a few nominating contests from now. that is on purpose. haley knew she could come out
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here, endorse and have the party say they were unified. but the only statement they released last night was saying that this is not a party that is unified just because someone comes out and says it is. that's, of course, what trump is trying to say here, but haley has been quick to point out that even in losing, she is notching 20, 30, maybe even in the new hampshire case 40 some odd percent of the electorate, not just typical republican primary voters, but it is independents and it is why you're watching the biden campaign say, come along, as the trump campaign seems to be dancing on the grave of the haley campaign and not extending the olive branch that nikki haley challenged him to endorse. i imagine if that changes, politics is transactional after all, if nikki haley sees a political upside, then maybe we can see an endorsement. but i think that it is just as easy for her to say, let's wait until november, see how these results shake out and she has a 50/50 shot of being able to say, look, this guy lost and i told you that would happen. now can the party move on, please? >> and, vaughn, donald trump
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spoke out about haley's exit this morning. first saying that he trounced her, then saying he wished she stayed in the race, keeping the context trump thinking behind all that. >> reporter: right, donald trump has not faced any consequence for alienating members of the republican party to date. there are questions around whether alienating the likes of liz cheney would hurt him politically. and his presidential run. the answer is clearly no. instead you have seen republicans, including those who have run against him, from ron desantis to tim scott, run right back and support him because when ali is talking about the arc of political history here, we see the power dynamics that are at play and the republican party understands that what republican party voters want is donald trump, just take the likes of california, where it was a closed primary yesterday. donald trump is winning by a 4 to 1 margin there.
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you see donald trump literally as nikki haley was taking the stage, posting on a social media account, an enthusiastic all caps trounced to define the loss for nikki haley. and i think the challenge here is that he's already won over nikki haley in the past. it was back in 2015 that nikki haley was the one on the campaign stage that said, quote, donald trump is everything i taught my children not to do in kindergarten. i taught my little ones you don't lie and make things up. a couple months later, nikki haley was supporting him and in the general election and became his u.n. ambassador. so, for donald trump he hasn't suffered the consequences within the republican party of alienating otherwise strong powerful other elected individuals within it. and the question is, this go around, will it be any different because right now donald trump has shown no indication of trying to broaden his reach to the nikki haley type voters because even if you look at the ballroom inside of mar-a-lago, where i was at last night, it
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was the likes of roger stone, marjorie taylor greene, madison cawthorn and the campaign that we're inside of that ballroom, and so while there is some others that are offering their tepid support like mitch mcconnell or don bacon, the question is come july at that republican convention in milwaukee, will the others in the party including potentially even nikki haley who donald trump needs supporters of, will they be there and ultimately fall in line and more enthusiastically back his bid. >> does the trump campaign think they need nikki haley supporters? >> reporter: the short answer to that is not exactly. i asked marjorie taylor greene that question before the new hampshire primary, explicitly, whether donald trump needed nikki haley and she told me very explicitly no. and this all comes down to the math of how do you become president? and frankly when you look at
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places like arizona, which came down to 11,000 votes, georgia, down to 10,000 votes, they believe there is untapped trump enthusiasm among supporters who otherwise didn't vote in 2020. recall in 2020, he did set the record across the competitive battleground states for record of republican nominees to earn votes ever. and so, for them, they believe that there is even more supporters that they can come out there and only to a certain extent do they need to win back independents. by no means do they have to win over the full share they lost from 2016. >> so, julie, as we have been talking in the last couple of minutes, mitch mcconnell who said he was going to step down and endorse trump, do we expect to see others on capitol hill now falling into this line? >> reporter: we already have seen it a couple of minutes ago, i came from a press conference among house republican leadership where they declared at the very start of the press conference that donald j. trump is their nominee, they even went
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as far as to say that he will be the 47th president of the united states. on the other side of the capitol, in the senate, you mentioned mcconnell, no doubt that this is an endorsement he didn't want to make. they had a very tense and rocky relationship to put it mildly, but in his statement as part of it, mcconnell did point to some of the few highlights. i want to read you a part of it, he said, during his presidency, we worked together to accomplish great things for the american people, including tax reform that supercharged our economy and a generational change of our federal judiciary, most importantly the supreme court. certainly the courts is a place where mcconnell had perhaps the most success in working with trump and filling that bench. but you also have seen in recent days other members of senate republican leadership like john thune, for example, who also has had some tense words for the former president, particularly after what happened here on january 6th, come out and endorse him. the only member of senate republican leadership so far that has not yet endorsed is senator joni ernst of iowa.
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that's somebody we're still waiting for, but here in the house, you talk about nikki haley, for example, ralph norman from south carolina, told my colleague this morning he was the only member of the house who endorsed nikki haley. this is important. he said he's 100% behind the former president now. he said they need the country to turn around and it is very clear that republicans up here are falling in line because they see the writing on the wall and they see what is going to happen in november and they hope that the former president can pull it out against president joe biden here. >> and, mark murray, exit polling showed that many haley voters say they would not commit to voting for the republican nominee in november. do you expect them to also begin following the fold? >> this is what time ends up healing a lot of times. we have covered a lot of races going back to 2008, remember barack obama versus hillary clinton, you end up having hillary clinton versus bernie sanders. the more time you have, the better opportunity you have to bring people back in who said
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they wouldn't support you. the exit polling, i think it shows some vulnerability signs for former president donald trump, including the numbers you just had, where a substantial number of haley voters saying, i won't support the party's nominee, but a little caution in some of the numbers. we have actually found that good evidence that a lot of the nikki haley voters are indeed democratic or joe biden voters. in virginia, 51% of all nikki haley voters said they approved of joe biden's job as president. those are more likely to be democratic and biden voters than they are republican voters if you decide you approve of joe biden and his performance. so, some warning signs for donald trump and republicans he has to bring back to the fold. maybe he hopes time, overtures, more attacks on joe biden, but it is important to note a lot of nikki haley supports in places like virginia and north carolina, new hampshire, south carolina, were coming from democrats. >> and joe biden has to decide how to navigate reaching out to
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those biden/haley voters as well as other mainstream voters who may be anti-trump, never trumpers even, and still reaching out to his progressive base, which is where he's got so much troubles for other reasons. mark, you're sticking around. ali vitali, vaughn hillyard, julie tsirkin, thanks to you. coming up, steve kornacki is back at the big board to break down where nikki haley's voters could go from here. we'll be right back. voters could go from here we'll be right back.
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welcome back. much more of our breaking news now. nikki haley has dropped out of the republican race for the white house. joining us now is bazell smikle, director of the public policy program at the roosevelt health institute of hunter college and susan del percio, nbc political
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analyst. thank you for joining us. susan, trump wrote on truth special he would like to, quote, invite all the haley supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of our nation. what does he need to do to gain the support? >> well, he has to stop saying, like, except for mitt romney or other republicans that he calls out all the time, which are exactly the people who voted for mitt romney donald trump needs if he's going to win. that was also after very ugly statement he made -- he's been -- or statements he's been making about nikki haley. he wants the voters because he needs them. he realizes 30% of the republican party is not with him. so, he's looking weak and he's trying to do something there. i don't think it will hold, frankly. i think he's lost that 30%. >> and actually, liz cheney, you can count among that 30%, she just tweeted, we have eight months to save our republic and ensure donald trump is never
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anywhere near the oval office again. >> so i just wrote for msnbc.com, my fun takeaway was, can you imagine if nikki haley and liz cheney got together and to stop trump. not necessarily a pro-biden movement, but to stop donald trump and talk about the dangers if he's put back in the oval office. >> and how do you see things different today versus yesterday? >> well, specifically for nikki haley, it is obviously delegate math. the math is the math here. she had to drop out, that was obviously expected to susan's point. i really am focused on what she does next. does she just kind of sit back and do nothing and let the process play out as it should, or does she team up with a liz cheney and find a way to get that 30%, and figure out how to carry them to 2028 for when she may run -- when she may run again. i like looking at what she does now. joe biden is also in a great
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position having come off decisive victories yesterday. it is what we expected it should be and would be. so the question is now, how do they each go out and earn the votes of the public. >> who is in a better position to do that at this point? >> based on what susan said, are you growing your base or are you shrinking it? donald trump has been shrinking his base in many respects, largely because of the ongoing controversies around reproductive rights and women's health. the question is, how does he actually gain the support? i think joe biden is in a good position to say, hey, guys, look, take another look at us, particularly if you're in the suburbs, but he still has got to go out and earn those votes. that's what i want to see going forward. >> and andrea? >> and susan del percio it depends whether donald trump realizes that he has some vulnerabilities here and that does he have to reach out. but what we have been discussing
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for the last more than an hour is his revenge mode, which has really trumped everything whether it was ted cruz, marco rubio, everyone fell into line with him, he didn't always fine into line with them and did not forgive. and certainly today is not an indicator he's in any case wanted to forgive. nikki haley and liz cheney are different people. very different people. different political analysts. nikki haley has been more accommodating, more willing to compromise in the past. liz cheney behaved more according to what she sees as her principles. i don't see her and nikki haley getting together in a stop trump movement. >> again, i kind of threw it out there as a what if, and i have my concerns about nikki haley as well, andrea. and that's because nikki haley didn't decisively do anything this morning except get out of the race. and i can't help but think when she said, like, you're going to have to earn my votes or my --
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the trust of my voters, donald trump, she wasn't quite saying, like, and you better have something for me at the end if you want me to deliver them. and i'm not saying vp choice, but if she was really believed in the words she has spoken the last six weeks, she would have said i am not endorsing donald trump. she could have made a not endorsement and stood on it. she doesn't have to endorse joe biden, but right now i just can't help but think she is moving -- she's motivated by some maneuvering that she can do toward maybe the convention and have a good primetime spot. >> i'm wondering, one of the things of the few things that trump has been consistent on is being inconsistent. one thing he's been inconsistent on is being unconventional, even in the world of politics. how do you see these next months going, when you have two clearly different campaigns, candidates,
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but with someone so unconventional and who is completely against the grain of what politics traditionally has been. >> that's why i take joe biden's points from yesterday when he said, the goal from now on is to go after donald trump and expose the -- i think he said he was intellectually and emotionally wobbly, and i don't know if that's a scientific term, but a great way to look at the strategy going against donald trump. bring out, you know, those inconsistencies, if he's not ideological in any very specific way, call attention to that, call attention to the hypocrisy. i think that's actually really good strategy now, i would also add the days of the obamas, when they go low, we go high, are over, and they have been over for quite some time. you cannot bring a book to a night fight. this is a street fight going into november. and unless the democrats are awake to that, and i think they are, but the democrats have to
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be awake to that because there is no playing nice with the other side. there is too much at stake. >> always great to have your perspective. thank you for the conversation. up next, our steve kornacki is going to break down where nikki haley voters go now. plus, could a third party be in play in 2024? >> we'll ask former new jersey governor christie todd whitman just that. you're watching special coverage only on msnbc. that. you're watching special coverage only on msnbc. so i didn't think i needed swiffer, until, i saw how easily it picked up my hair every time i dried it! only takes a minute. look at that! the heavy duty cloths are extra thick, for amazing trap & lock. even for his hair. wow. and for dust, i love my heavy duty duster. the fluffy fibers trap dust on contact, up high and all around without having to lift a thing. i'm so hooked. you'll love swiffer. or your money back!
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and welcome back to our breaking news, former governor nikki haley just dropping out of the presidential race after former president trump dominated in super tuesday states last night. jose? >> now voters who backed haley will have to decide who to support this november, which is essentially a trump/biden rematch. here is what a few of them told nbc news they would do if haley left the race. >> you know, that's a really good question. i would -- it is probably going to be biden just because it has been, you know, four years and he hasn't divided, you know, he hasn't caused other countries to hate us like trump did. >> i'm a little concerned with trump, but at the same time, if it is between trump and biden, and it is -- i probably would vote for trump. >> joining us now is nbc's steve
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kornacki at the big board. steve, you have been obviously digging into the numbers, to the exit polling, to the specific areas that are going to be key for the general election. where do nikki haley's voters go? >> i think it is a good question that is worth considering from a couple of different angles because i've been talking about this in the coverage the last couple of days, that is a lot of the haley support, there is a lot of strong evidence in these states, just come from the fact that a lot of the primaries allowed for democrats and republicans to participate. i think one of the big factors in haley's support in some of these states we have seen has been independents and democrats who strongly dislike donald trump and are already willing to vote for joe biden over him and probably did vote for joe biden over him in 2020, just taking what is essentially a free opportunity to vote against trump again in these primaries. so, i think that's a meaningful chunk of the vote that haley has gotten. i'm not sure that's available to trump at all potentially. there is also a big chunk the exit polls have shown haley's
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voters who say they will ultimately get in line with donald trump. i think that leaves -- there is a group out there, i'm sure, it is very hard to quantify what it is. but there is a group out there, i'm sure, of haley voters, who could be winnable for donald trump, what it would take for him to do it, i'm not sure. but i think there is -- it is a small size, if you're thinking in terms of what the trump campaign might be thinking here, strategically, do they go after them, how do they go after them, do they not go after those voters, here is the context that the trump campaign will be making that decision. start with this, just in the last few days, we had four major national polls come out, doing a trump/biden rematch trial heat. in all of them, you can see the margins are small, in all of them trump is ahead of joe biden in the polling. that's a big change from 2020, there wasn't a single poll in 2020, credible national poll, that ever put trump ahead of biden. in the last few days, four that have trump up.
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i think the trump campaign feels relatively speaking that they're operating from a position of strength right now. also, on that question of -- within the republican party, do these primary results, do haley's showings in these republican primaries indicate there is a big fracturing of the republican party that jeopardizes trump in the fall. here, again, are the kinds of numbers that the trump campaign is looking at as they think about how to deal with that strategically. this is the republican vote in these polls from the last few days that i'm showing you, asking republican voters, trump is getting 91, 92, 96 depending on the poll. that's absolutely in line, in 2020, he got 94% of the republican vote in the general election. in 2016, when he won, he got 92% of the republican vote. so the numbers he's posting in general election polling against biden, right now, are absolutely consistent with what he's got among republicans in past elections. so, again, if you're looking at the primaries and saying, boy, there is evidence here of republicans turning on trump,
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unwilling to vote for trump in the fall, you're not seeing it in the general election polling in these trump numbers, and then you take a look at one final thing here, this is from "the new york times" siena poll, they looked at this way, who did you vote for in 2020 and are you still with that candidate now? 97% of folks who said they voted for trump in 2020 say in this poll they're still with trump, but only 85% of joe biden's 2020 voters say they're with him. again, i think if you're the trump campaign, you look at a finding like this and say, maybe there is some slack on the republican side, they're probably thinking, but not a ton, and meanwhile, it is biden who has the slack and the reason trump is leading in these polls right now over biden and they're polls, they can change and be wrong and all the disclaimers we can put on it, but i think the trump campaign would look at this and say they're picking off biden voters right now, more than biden is picking off trump voters. so i think those are the things that go into their thinking in
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terms of how to approach this haley question. strategically. i think they would be asking that question about exactly how many of these voters are gettable, what would it take to get them, and then they're saying are there -- are they making gains elsewhere that could offset whatever they're potentially losing here and like i say, just looking at the numbers now, only poll numbers, but i think that informs some of the decision-making and some of the strategic thinking here. >> i'm just thinking, steve, if we look at how the polls were in 2016, all of them wrong, all of them telling us that, you know, secretary clinton was going to be the winner, most polls saying that for the longest time, and, of course, it didn't happen that way. what has changed since 2016 and 2020 is enthusiasm, is the different -- are the different issues that have come up, abortion being probably the main one, thinking about immigration, what are some of the differences that this political season has to the 2016 and to the 2020?
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>> yeah, you mentioned some of the issues, but i think the big thing hanging over this that is just different from four years ago, and i think goes potentially a long way to explaining the kinds of poll results we're seeing is biden was the incumbent now. he was the challenger in 2020. when you're the challenger, you have the advantage when the mood of the country isn't as optimal as it could be. all of the polling out there right now shows the country is still in a pessimistic place when it comes to the economy. huge concerns when it comes to the border. there is a lot of issues now that have voters not feeling great about where the country is and in that kind of environment, i don't care if you're a republican or a democrat, whoever you are, if you're the incumbent president, a lot of that frustration, a lot of that apprehension ends up getting turned on you. if you're the challenger, that gives you new opportunities to pick up votes, simply because they don't want the incumbent anymore. trump suffered from that in 2020, biden may now be taking a hit from that same dynamic.
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>> steve kornacki, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> so interesting to get into the details there. joining us now is former republican governor of new jersey, christine todd whitman, also the co-chair of the forward party. thank you for joining us, governor. based on what we just heard, where do haley voters go now, especially those independent voters, as it appears that the gop is fully trump's party? >> i think they're going to take a little time to think. but i think the majority of them, i believe majority of them are going to go for biden at the end of the day. the one good thing and it also throws off all those numbers as we're a long way from november. and as you know, in politics, a week is a year. so, a lot can happen in that, but most of these haley voters are people who just don't like the kind of atmosphere that donald trump creates, they don't like the fact as one of the people that you had -- you interviewed said, you know, the other countries don't hate us. joe biden has been able to hold
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that together, but the economy is the big thing. it is doing well, except when you look at rural america, where the jobs have not come back because technology has taken so many of them away and they blamed biden for that. and, you know, if you're the incumbent, you get blamed whether it is your fault or not. that's just what happens. you get the credit if you didn't do anything, but it turns out to be good while you're in office, and you get the blame. even if you didn't have anything to do with it. so, there is a lot that has to happen to get people to recognize where we really are, and what the damage to this country could be caused if donald trump is re-elected. >> and governor whitman, andrea mitchell here, i want to get your thoughts on the fact that there is so much negativity among voters to both of these -- the presumptive candidates in both parties. is this ripe for a third party candidate? for no labels or some other movement? of course, depending who that
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person would be, it would depend on whether it would end up, you know, hurting biden more than trump or trump more than biden. >> that's the big question. and i don't think anybody knows, and as you say, it is going to depend on who the candidates are, but that's why what we're doing with forward becomes even more important because no matter who wins this election, we know it is going to be close, and we know there are going to be lawsuits. it becomes increasingly important to ensure that at the local level and the state level, the governor, the secretary of state, the attorney general, your local commissioners, are people who will respect the rule of law and protect the ballot, however it comes out. make sure that they protect it. and that they will stand up against the kind of lawsuits we have seen and we saw after the 2020 election. most lawsuits based on absolutely nothing. and it took only a few, it was -- we hung on by a threat to our democracy there, there were a few people who were willing to stand up and say, i'm sorry, this is what the vote is, i may
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not like it, you may not like it, but that's where it is and i cannot do anything other than certify that. it becomes really important to ensure that we have that and we are building a third party, but we're building it from the ground up and it is not a party that is going to tell people where they have to be on a particular issue. you don't have to be pro-choice or anti-choice, we'll support republicans, democrats and independents. we are on the ballot in five states. but where we're not on the ballot, we'll support the others as long as they agree with the principles of the party, which are the rule of law, respect the constitution, work with anyone to ensure that we start to solve problems and represent their people, not some party. not what the party tells you have to think and say, but what your constituents want and need and what your state or your locality want and need. >> governor, i'm just thinking about back on that kind of interesting phrase that you coined, which is in politics, every week is a year, and we got
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probably the longest general presidential elections in certainly in recent history coming up. we're talking about the equivalent of decades, right, in the world of politics, and so much is happening in just such a short period of time. i'm just thinking, here going forward, just through the summer, we have elections in mexico. we have got the disaster that is going on in venezuela with maduro, we have haiti that is pretty much a place where there is no government. there are so many foreign crises that we don't even know about that are going to be happening. what do you think those different crises are going to have as far as an impact on us here? >> well, i mean, first of all, for the ones you cited from latin america, from south america, central america, obviously you're going to see more people trying to flee those countries and that's going to put pressure on the border. and we need a border policy, but that's congress.
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and that's what is so frustrating. immigration, as you said, and as steve has said, is one of those big issues. it should be. but you have a proposal, bipartisan proposal, in the congress, that could be passed, except that donald trump says don't do it because he wants it for this campaign. and that's just inexcusable because that's hurting real people. there are lives being lost. there are businesses being lost. there are dislocations across the country, and because of politics, we're not solving the problem. and, by the way, both sides have done this kind of thing in the past, but this is so blatant because you have a bipartisan bill that is ready to move forward and was ready to move forward until he said don't do it. >> and, of course, if we wait until the election of vladimir putin could deplete ukraine as well to say nothing of what's happening in gaza. former governor christine todd whitman, great to see you, thank you so much. >> good to see you all. up next, chuck todd joins us
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welcome back. nikki haley's departure from the presidential race effectively makes donald trump the presumptive republican nominee and sets up a rematch with joe biden this fall. >> and with us now to talk more about all of this, and politics in general, the general election
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as we look ahead, is nbc news chief political analyst chuck todd. so, chuck, thanks for coming in. >> of course. >> i want to get your reaction first to news this morning, nikki haley dropping out of the race. >> i don't think it is surprising. i don't think it is surprising how she positioned herself here. i think the question, though, that i think is still an unknown is, you know, and i don't think she said -- i think what she said is she's right, that trump should be earning her support and earning her supporters' support. i don't know if trump is going to go after her voters. a couple of days ago, he said we have gotten rid of the romneys, we don't want the moderates. the difference between him winning or losing may be this small slice of voter here. nikki haley, her future is predicated on trump losing the general. like, she needs -- in order to make her case, you know, if she wants to be the i told you so republican, he has to lose the general. i think she's in a awkward point in her own political career,
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because her political future is tied to trump's political demise. >> andrea has a question for you. >> of course. >> chuck, i'm wondering about liz cheney. i think she is a very different character. and has behaved more on principle, frankly, than nikki haley has in the world of politics, just speaking of -- she's been more consistent. what does she do now, now that you put out a strong statement against trump, saying she would do anything possible to stop him from becoming president again. >> it is interesting. i talked to some people very close to her and i know she doesn't want to be john kasich, right, and i say this meaning, kasich went and spoke at the democratic convention. and i think, you know, and, look, kasich was at a different stage of his political career, but it is hard for him to come back, right? as leader of a new conservative movement, in some ways once you do that, and i think my understanding is that i think cheney sees that as sort of,
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like, that's a bridge too far, that doesn't mean she doesn't advocate a vote for biden, that doesn't mean she doesn't advocate -- can she play the role of, hey, i want to build a new conservative movement, can't build the movement until trump is gone. you know, if she is playing an -- i think she's more of an asset to stopping trump if she's on the outside, than if she is trying to be part of the biden coalition if that makes sense, andrea. >> just -- and, chuck, i mean, i'm wondering, if trump even thinks he has a trump coalition or it is all trump, and if you're not trump, i don't need you, it is something that he has had in the past, i mean, clearly 2016, you know, he said, like, this is where i stand, and, you
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know -- >> by the way, hasn't it worked? i mean -- >> it didn't work in the midterms. >> but it has worked in that this respect. his base has grown. meaning the trump base has grown. it doesn't mean the party has grown, the party has shrunk. the republican vote share has shrunk. trump's connection to the republican base is deeper than ever before. so in that sense he really has -- this is trump's party, and in '16 he had that attitude and a lot of people who had to do this because they didn't think they liked him, but they had an open supreme court seat, and that's what they cared about. there is nobody holding their nose this time. i think the question, donald trump has the same number that he got the last time. and he's going to get the same number this time. but as 47% a winning number or a losing number. >> it depends on voter turnout. >> depends who is on the ballot also, third party candidates taking away a vote here, a vote there. he can cannot win 50%. that doesn't have to be his winning number. the question is, is 47 a winning
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number and that goes to, all right, how effective is the biden coalition and how much damage do the third party candidates do to his vote share. >> i want to ask you about the new piece that you had on nbc.com. >> it is still there. >> but i wanted to say, you had it out there, even before nikki haley dropped out as you were already looking at the math. >> the math is the math. >> super tuesday, we're talking about the next six weeks being a very critical stretch in the general election. >> here is why it is. if you look at previous incumbent successes, it is the period of time when the challenger has been coronated, i think john kerry and mitt romney being two recent examples, in the coronation period, they -- some of their best days. but it was the bush campaign, the infamous swift votes, you know, back then, you know, with kerry and it was at a time kerry was low on cash and he couldn't really respond. mitt romney, he was low on money during his campaign and that's
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when they went after bane and his business record and it took them a while. the point is, biden has a period of time, this six weeks, trump is broke, campaign cash, comparatively to biden, biden has this huge financial advantage. he has an opportunity to frame the campaign messaging against trump, almost unresponded to. how does he use this? this is why i say it is a crucial six weeks because biden has this built in advantage right now. >> if you're biden, and biden folks, how do you use the six weeks? >> that's what i'm curious about. this is going to be the debate they have. how much is it do you look backwards and how much do you look forwards? how much do you run against trump's presidency or against what his second 6 and a lot of . i think it's very hard to go backwards and make people remember the trump years because we memory hold everything because of covid. covid conflated -- >> feels like forever ago. >> exactly. think about your own life and
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how much -- covid sort of -- i think they have to run against what trump is going to do versus what he did. >> you are coming back. we will hit pause and continue the conversation in the next hour. thank you, chuck todd. up next, the latest reporting on what went into nikki haley's decision to today suspend her campaign. stay with us. (♪♪) i'm getting vaccinated with pfizer's pneumococcal pneumonia vaccine. so am i. because i'm at risk for pneumococcal pneumonia.
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we are back with our breaking news. nikki haley out of the presidential race. joining us now is greg hyatt who has been very closely covering haley for months now. greg, your takeaways from this moment and what happens next? >> good afternoon. really, what this comes down to is governor haley was always going to be willing to fight for her supporters. she always talks about that there's a 30% to 40% of the gop electorate that love nikki haley and see the current state of the republican party and are wondering, where is the party going next? trump is the essential nominee. for governor haley, the decision to decide to step away from the race comes down to giving a voice to those supporters who have been turning out at all of her super tuesday rallies consistently. i have gone to everywhere she has been over the last couple of weeks. you are seeing a lot of enthusiasm.
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you see a lot of big crowds who would encourage her to continue the fight. haley today, at this point, really you get to the delicate math as we saw with the performance of former president trump on super tuesday. that's where the timing gets into bowing out now. governor haley stated that she's not going to look at a third party. she's not looking at no labels. she stated that directly. i would anticipate that governor haley will continue to fight for the issues she's passionate about. you heard her talk about it in the speech, such as national debt, term limits in congress. she will continue to do that. she will do it from the sidelines. >> greg hyatt, thank you very much. coming up, we will get reaction to nikki haley's exit from a biden campaign spokesman. >> stay with us for more special coverage right after a quick break. but do you have to wedge it into everything? what? i don't do that. this reminds me of my bike. the wolf was about the size of my new motorcycle.
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