po, you need to bring peace to the valley. [ choking ] the chameleon is nothing like anyone you've ever faced. she is capable of mimicking any shape. awesome. i mean it's disturbing, but it's awesome. good to be with you. i'm katy tur. as you know, the state of the union is tonight, and as you know, everyone who has a voice, what will he say, and with what force will he say it? well, one former white house

official who joins me in just a moment says there's no need to hyperventilate. put down the paper bag says jen psaki. she's here with us. first, let's get to our reporters with what the president is expected to talk about tonight and how democrats and republicans will react. joining us now, nbc news correspondent garrett haake, and chief white house correspondent and political analyst, peter baker. peter, bring us into the planning from the white house's perspective. what should we expect? >> i think you're going to hear the president talk about a few things. first of all, he's going to talk about his accomplishments. he's going to try to remind the country of how things were when they were in the country when he took other the period, in the middle of the covid pandemic, lockdowns, social unrest in the streets. there was of course the january 6th attack on congress and the economy was in free fall. i think he's going to try to remind people how things have gotten better over the years,

and take as much credit as he can. he's going to talk about reproductive rights, freedom, he's going to expand on the issue of abortion to say not just abortion but other rights like ivf and possibly same-sex marriage and gay rights are at stake in the election. he's going it talk about of course democracy and what he sees as the stakes of the election, former president trump threatening to come back in many ways, mr. biden's view, threatened the enormous and traditions of an american democratic system. >> this morning, speaker mike johnson spoke to cbs, and he talked about his expectation, what he wants to hear or what he thinks he should be hearing from president biden. let's play some of that. >> this president is projecting weakness on the world stage. when president trump projected strength. from the reagan years, we maintain peace through strength, we're doing the opposite, and it's dangerous. we have to take care of our priorities first, and take care

of securing our own border. if you don't have a border, you don't have sovereignty, security. we're actively looking at the options on all of that, the supplemental that you hear so much about, the supplemental funding. >> this is speaker mike johnson trying to come out and say, the reason i'm not passing aid to ukraine or israel is because of immigration, even though there was an immigration bill that was out there that he didn't bring to the floor. garrett, talk to me more about how this is going to play with republicans. >> over the last several years, we have seen the state of the union morph into something more analogous to question time than the house of commons in the uk. the people who were supposed to be sitting there listening, would be more participatory in nature. if and when president biden brings up the border or border security bill that republicans asked for, only to tank at the behest of donald trump. that seems like the kind of

thing almost guaranteed to bait house republicans into a response. which johnson we have been able to report has told his members not to engage in. there's not a lot of love lost between the congressional republican conference and president biden, and i do expect this to have perhaps more of a conversation tonight than we're traditionally used to seeing, and it might be in the best political interest of those republicans who might be better served to let the president say his piece and use it again him later. >> prime minister question time is more interesting. both sides have to get up and debate each other. >> you're the foreign correspondent, katy. i'll leave that to you. >> i wish that we had a version of that here. i think it would be really ill elucidating. going forward, there's a feeling he has to adjust for his polling right now. which is not so great. the americans don't believe the economy is doing as well as it is. does the white house believe

that the president can make a difference on nights like tonight. >> it's one speech, obviously, and nobody should attach too much importance to a single speech. it's the largest television all of a sudden audience he's going to have all year. the state of the union is when people check in. it's his chance to reset the expectations and the understanding and basically the fact set. you're right about the frustration that the president hasn't gotten more credit for an economy with almost record low unemployment, strong job growth, you know, record stock markets, wages on the rise, and so forth. inflation obviously remains an albatross for this president. it has come down to about 3%. lower than it was, unfortunately for him. prices haven't come down, and a lot of people are still trying to pay at the grocery store larger bills. he's going to try to take credit for that. he's going to try to begin a month of campaigning. i think you'll see him get out on the road, philadelphia tomorrow, atlanta on saturday.

cabinet is going out on the road, his vice president. in a way it's really the starting gun of the 2024 general election contest just two days after trump sealed the republican nomination. >> peter baker, garrett haake, gentlemen, thank you very much. joining us former white house press secretary and host of msnbc's "inside with jen psaki," i want to go inside your head. the title of your show is perfect, especially for today. you tweeted people should put down the paper bag, don't hyperventilate. there are a lot of people worried about the outlook of the coming election. democrats are worried. why are you not one of them? >> everybody should be a little worried. the polls are not good for the president, the white house. there are also some things that are challenging for president trump, former president trump. good lord. former president trump. that i think people don't talk about or focus on enough. right now, one, if you look at

the results from tuesday, 2/3, a third of voters in virginia and north carolina, two important states coming up in november said they would not vote for trump. will they vote for trump in november? got to do some work in bringing together even his own party. that's one. two is he has a huge money problem. he's way behind on cash in hand. he's spending money on paying for his lawyers. the biden team and the dnc has a huge money advantage. they also have an operational advantage because they have been working with state parties. the state party system for the republican party is in complete disarray. just look at michigan. i tweeted that because i think there's a lot of paper bag breathing. some of that is healthy. democrats should be breathing in a paper bag a little bit for sure. there are operational things. you need money. you need an operation to run a campaign, and he has work to do bringing his party together. >> it's a much more professional campaign than 2016. the outreach, the effort, the organization on the ground looks

a whole lot different. in 2016, they relied on donald trump being out there and getting his message across to the american public either through the campaign rallies that were covered nonstop. i understand there's a lot of anger about that. >> we don't have to have a therapy session about that right now, and also directly through social media. he's not using twitter any longer. these are two men the american public knows. how much does money matter. >> money does matter because money helps you organize and it helps you operationalize your message. for joe biden, the fact that he has a ton of money. what has happened since 2016, a lot of things obviously but an insurrection has happened. >> is that still on top of people's minds. i know it is for a good portion of the population. time does make things hazy. protecting democracy son people's minds. if you look back, i read a bunch of old state of the union speeches so no one else had to,

i suppose, but if you look at how the president ended the speech last year, i expect it to be something similar. basically, we're at an inflection point. it wasn't an attack. it didn't name trump. i don't think he's going to name trump tonight, it's not his style. who we are as a country, the fundamentals, the systems we want to protect. people do believe in that. i'm surprised by how much it moves people in elections but that has happened over and over again. i don't think that should be urn valued. >> president biden's performance, his delivery, the way he gives this speech, are you looking at that? >> yes, i love that you're almost whispering. everybody should be looking at his performance. look, i think going into tonight, there's a couple of things you look at if you're sitting in the white house and you can't control all of them, including performance. you want to tell a story. president biden loves a listical, he is also a good story teller. the performance, everything from how he walks down the aisle.

we're all going to be watching and talking about who he shakes hands with, is he energetic, how is he walking, how does he interact with mike johnson, everyone, right? but it's also does he have stamina, and does he have a strong ending to the speech. do people feel it is an energetic delivery. this is always a thing. anyone who tells you differently is not being honest. >> going forward, tradition is that the nominee of the party gets an intelligence briefing. the nominee that's running for president. donald trump got his intelligence access revoked after he left office. he was seen as a security threat. donald trump is going to be the nominee, and there are plans to once again start those intelligence briefings, again. here's what john bolton said about it on another network. >> i would not give him access to classified materials. no other candidate has been under indictment for allowing classified information to be

compromised and given the pend si of that indictment alone, i wouldn't give him the briefings. >> this is his former national security adviser saying that. >> i mean. >> so why is he getting these briefings? is there a reason to forego tradition in this circumstance? >> i think there should be, here we are in 2024, what ambassador bolton said makes a whole lot of sense. i have had him on my show a lot of times too. that makes a ton of sense. there's a traditionalness. i don't know if that's a word. there's a traditional aspect of government agencies for good reason, and i don't know if they're requirements or things that put them in a place where they have to deliver it, but yes, all things being equal, it doesn't make sense for a person who has been indicted for sharing information from classified documents to be receiving intelligence briefings. >> did you describe the white house, talking about being indicted, there's a chance currently that if the supreme court knocks down the immunity case and sends the election interference case back to judge

chutkan in june, say, that this will go to trial in september, potentially. is that a good thing or a bad thing for former president trump? does the white house see him on trial right ahead of the election as a problem for them or as a benefit? >> they will tell you, they don't think about it. of course they think about it. i think it's a good thing for them if that happens. they can't control it obviously. jack smith, as you know, and you said many times, as others have, the guideline doesn't apply to this case. >> also the judge can decide, and the judge is not beholden to that guideline. >> here's why, especially in that case, the election interference case, which you could argue the new york one too. the january 6th case, when that is front and center for people, that is the case that has the most political power. >> our friend claire mccaskill argued it would be good for donald trump to be seen on trial. he would campaign entirely from the courtroom and make it look like he's a victim.

>> he might, but that doesn't mean that works with independent voters or democrats who might sit at home. what's different between now and 2016 is there's a lot of people in the democratic party and independents who absolutely really hate donald trump more than they did in 2016. this is just a reminder of the role he played. >> there are more people who hate him in 2024 than 2020. >> i think so, yes. >> turnout, we saw turnout in 2020 for donald trump and president biden. he had more, which is why he won. do you believe that those same voters, the same number of voters, the same enthusiasm that we saw in 2020 exists for 2024. and if so, where does it come from? is it just all because people are terrified of donald trump? >> it's not all donald trump hatred, though some of it is. this is why it's been clarified for the electorate, including people who are just not that enthused about engaging this year. when they're reminds donald trump is the nominee, it's not changing.

nikki haley is not the nominee. that's good for the biden team. it's also abortion rights. what's happened between now and 2020 is of course the dobbs ruling. that was a big motivator in 2022. it pushed out what people call surge voters. people who voted because of that. i think the biden team is betting on that. it's incumbent to remind people of what's at risk. >> it's so good to have you. especially good to see you in person. please come back as often as possible. >> i would love to. >> jen, thank you. and still ahead, what america's first ivf baby thinks about the alabama ruling that halted the procedure. she's headed to the state of the union tonight, but she's going to join this show first. and what is a better indicator for november, public opinion polls or past elections? the two are in conflict. which can you trust. plus, what is going on with donald trump's finances. he just asked for yet another stay on his e. jean carroll bond. we are back in 60 seconds.

one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help. it's the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and prevent, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. [cough] honey... honey. nyquil severe honey. powerful cold and flu relief with a dreamy honey taste nyquil honey, zyrtec allergy relief works fast and lasts a full 24 hours so dave can be the... deliverer of dance. ok, dave! let's be more than our allergies. zeize the day with zyrtec.

. to the sound of clicking cameras, 3 day old elizabeth jordan carr met the press today along with her mother and father, judy and roger carr. elizabeth was the first baby conceived by the in vitro technique in which the mother's egg is fertilized in a laboratory dish with sperm from the father. elizabeth's pediatrician, dr. frederick werth says she's doing famously. >> she's terrific. she's an alert baby. she fixes with her eyes. right now she's a little bit sleepy, and all of this clicking is lulling her to sleep. >> mrs. carr was asked about criticism of in vitro fertilization from right to life groups who worry that doctors may one day play god, destroying less than perfect embryos. >> i just hope they, you know, understand that we have our

child and that's what we wanted, and they have their right to their opinion. >> that's on the nose. elizabeth carr entered the world on december 28th, 1981. as a 5 pound and 12 ounce modern miracle. america's first ivf baby. now she's one of many millions, but the procedure that brought her and so many others into life is now under threat by the american court system. joining us democratic senator from virginia, tim kaine, and his special guest for tonight's state of the union, you see her right there, elizabeth carr. you were a very cute baby, elizabeth. >> thank you. >> very well behaved. i was impressed how well your mom was moving three day after birth. tell me what you think about the current debate right now and this alabama court ruling? >> what's so interesting about this debate right now, when i was born 42 years ago, essentially the same debate was happening, but then i was born and many people realized that i

was just a normal baby like everybody else. so while the ruling was devastating to the ivf community, i'm hopeful that through efforts like those of senator kaine and duckworth that we can move forward to actually protect ivf on a national level. >> what's your message to those who argue that an embryo should have the same rights as a child, elizabeth? >> so i think it's critical here that people understand the science of ivf and understand that one embryo does not equal one baby, and it takes many many chances. ivf is sadly not a magic bullet, so really, it takes a lot of effort and a lot of eggs and embryos to actually end up with that live birth. i think that's a critical piece that many people have overlooked. >> senator, why was it so important for you to invite elizabeth tonight? >> katy, when i heard about the alabama decision, particularly i was in birmingham the day that

the university decided they had to terminate all ivf procedures, i just thought about all the people i know who have used ivf or been born by ivf, something in the back of my head said i think this story might have started in virginia. when i got back home, i did my research and found out about elizabeth being born at norfolk general hospital in 1981. she used a chilling phrase, i feel like i'm an engaged species, and that made me reach out to her to see if she might want to come and be part of the state of the union tonight, and inspired me to join with senator tammy duckworth, the access to building families act that would create a right for patients to access ivf and providers to provide ivf services in every zip code in this rnt can. and -- country. we're going push to get it passed. >> speaker mike johnson was asked, he said this will be an issue for the states.

there will no federal law regarding this. do you think there's a chance this legislation, if it comes to the floor in the senate and passes the senate, which is an if, would make it out of the house? >> i do. here's why. the votes are there on the floor of the house. the bill is the committee where i serve, health, education, labor, pension, i think we can get this bill out of the health committee with a significant bipartisan vote on the floor of the senate. we'll have 51 democrats. we need to get at least nine republicans. but i think we can get there, and if we can get there, i think with all the republicans on the house side saying of course i believe in ivf, well, this is the bill that will test whether it's words or whether it's commitment and action, and i think we're going to move urgently on this. >> there's an up hill battle for control of the senate for democrats. the electoral map does not look great for the democrats' chances of keeping the senate. does this bill get brought up if the republicans are in control? >> i think we got to do it now. i mean, partly because of the

issue of control as you mentioned but also you've got parents all over this country. i had a round table with many of them in norfolk monday, and another one tomorrow in northern virginia who are very afraid right now, they're worried about whether they can build their families in the way they plan to and providers are afraid about whether they can just treat their patients in the ways the patients deserve. so for a whole lot of reasons, but most especially the urgent need to give people a sense of comfort and confidence that the way they plan to build their family will be open to them. we need to move quick. >> elizabeth, what do you want to hear from president biden tonight? >> i would love to hear him bring up protecting ivf nationally. that's high on my wish list. many people that's high on their wish list. it's an incredible honor to be here and represent the ivf community, and more than 12 million babies around the world who have now been born through this technology. i think we'll all be listening

intently this evening. >> what about katie britt delivering the rebuttal, the senator from alabama. >> look, because she's from alabama, i don't think she can avoid the elephant in the room. she's going to have to talk about this. it's not whether you're pro ivf, whether you support legislation that's pro ivf. alabama said guess what, we'll give you immunity if you get sued. that's not the same as saying we embrace ivf. if you get immunity, you might worry about your licensing or credentialing. if you're a family, you worry whether there's a chilling effect that will make providers decide i don't want to do it in this way. i'm going to do this somewhere else. let's make sure families know if they choose this way to build their family, they can do it. >> is this about science or religion? >> everyone is entitled to their

own religious beliefs. what puzzles me as a catholic is people saying they're pro life but fighting against an innovation, a human innovation that has created 12 million lives. think of the net effect of these 12 million people living their best lives, raising families, bringing joy to their families. contributing to their communities. it's such a net benefit for the world. why would we want to erase that from who we are as a planet. >> senator tim kaine and elizabeth, you were pants down, one of the cutest babies i've ever seen. that cover of "time" magazine, just adorable. elizabeth carr, thank you very much. have fun tonight. it's going to be a special experience to be in the room. thank you both for joining us. >> you bet. >> thank you. what voters are telling us about the economy and what economists say it's going to look like, the economy that is in november. >> how does the economy feel to you? >> it doesn't feel well.

you know, they say everything is going better, but it doesn't feel that way. t way. oooh! i can't wait for this family getaway! shingles doesn't care. shingles is a painful, blistering rash that can last for weeks. ahhh, there's nothing like a day out with friends. that's nice, but shingles doesn't care! 99% of adults 50 years or older already have the virus that causes shingles inside them, and it can reactivate at any time. a perfect day for a family outing! guess what? shingles doesn't care. but shingrix protects. only shingrix is proven over 90% effective.

shingrix is a vaccine used to prevent shingles in adults 50 years and older. shingrix does not protect everyone and is not for those with severe allergic reactions to its ingredients or to a previous dose. an increased risk of guillain-barré syndrome was observed after getting shingrix. fainting can also happen. the most common side effects are pain, redness, and swelling at the injection site, muscle pain, tiredness, headache, shivering, fever, and upset stomach. shingles doesn't care. but shingrix protects. ask your doctor or pharmacist about shingrix today. ♪ you need t-mobile... ♪ ♪ home internet with 5g. ♪ wait! t-mobile has home internet? ♪ what a feeling! ♪ ♪ to have t-mobile now! ♪ i found a cheaper price on my meds with singlecare. did you say singlecare? i use singlecare. whenever my customers ask me if there's a cheaper price on their meds. i always tell them about singlecare. i found a cheaper price with singlecare! i know. download the singlecare app free today.

(sigh) if you struggle with cpap... you should check out inspire. no mask. no hose. just sleep. inspire. learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com dry skin is sensitive skin, too. and it's natural. treat it that way with aveeno® daily moisture. formulated with nourishing, prebiotic oat. it's clinically proven to moisturize dry skin for 24 hours. aveeno® [dog whimpers] [thinking] why always the couch? does he need to go to puppy school? get his little puppy diploma? how much have i been spending on this little guy? when your questions about life turn into questions about money... there's erica. the virtual financial assistant to help you spend, save, and plan smarter. only from bank of america.

here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today.

it's the economy, stupid, to borrow a phrase. it matters a lot to people. wages are rising, inflation is easing, markets are up, and people are spending. but as you know, there's still a wild disconnect between the success of the those numbers and how people feel about the

economy. what do voters want to hear from the president tonight on the economy? what will make them feel better about it. nbc news correspondent dasha burns asked some of those voters in erie county, pennsylvania. >> reporter: daryl grace has lived in erie county, pennsylvania, all his life. an avowed steelers fan and muscle car aficionado. in 2020, he voted for biden. three years later, the economic growth isn't helping him. >> how does the economy feel to you? >> it doesn't feel well. they say everything is doing better, but it doesn't feel that way. >> daryl's kids, both in their mid-20s and employed still live at home. >> when i retire, i need my kids to be here for me. my golden years, me and the wife. >> you thought you would be empty nesters. >> yeah, you know, having fun, you know. >> reporter: as for his vote come november.

>> if it's biden and trump, it's bad. >> reporter: are you considering going third party? >> yeah, yeah. >> reporter: president biden narrowly flipped this bellwether county in 2020 thanks to strong democratic turnout and won the state. with his approval rating on the economy at just 36%, polls show swing state pennsylvania is very much in play. >> i think he has done a good job. >> republican turned independent, mary anne is planning to support biden. >> we did not go into a recession. it's kind of surprising that people aren't more in support of him. he has a real pr problem. a big pr problem. >> reporter: that problem for the president is playing out at eduardo's tavern, where we met a group of conservative customers. >> you've got low unemployment rates, wages are up, inflation is easing, stock market's doing well. but are you feeling any of that? how do you feel about the economy day-to-day? >> i'm not sure i agree with

what you just said. >> i never planned on using some of the money that i saved to retire that i had to use because of the economy. >> groceries, gas, everything you have to buy every day is way more expensive than previous years. >> reporter: do you think like there's a disconnect between what the biden administration is saying about how good the economy is versus what you feel? >> absolutely. >> i think us now, nbc news senior business correspondent, christine romans. make sense of that for us, if you can. >> reporter: you look at top line numbers that could show maybe the best economy in our lifetime. when you look at a grocery bill and the issue of fairness, the white house wants to cast the president as on the side of the american people. i mean, tonight you'll probably hear him talk a lot about the costs you face in every day life, and how he has been for

the past year trying to lower the costs. he'll talk about tax fairness and say, hey, wait a minute, we can fix a lot of problems by raising taxes on people who are really really rich and promising not to raise taxes on anybody who makes less than $400,000 a year. he's going to try to not say, the economy is good, you should feel it. he's going to say, i get that you don't feel the good economy, and here's how i'm trying to make sure you can. >> maybe the best economy of our lifetime, are the numbers that good? >> record high in the stock market, never seen stocks this high. a gdp that continues to charge ahead. the size of the american economy is bigger than it's been. unemployment at a 50-year low. we have demographics that have never seen unemployment rates this low before. grocery costs are 25% higher than january of 2020. they take up a bigger share of the average american's budget than anytime since 1991. think about that. it's the grocery bill that is

still a big problem here, and you'll hear the president tonight talk about all of these ways that people feel nick ld -- nickelled and dimed. shah heard that from the people. in all of these little ways, they feel like they're not getting ahead and the president will try to tick through all the different things he has done and the things he wants to do, and the things he wants congress to help him do to try to get costs under control for, you know, for families. >> interesting, christine romans, maybe on paper, the best economy of our lifetime. that's incredible. christine, thank you so much. coming up, nbc's richard engel flies with the jordanians as they drop aid into gaza. what they say. >> and eight months out from the election, what is the polling telling us and what is it not telling us? steve kornacki joins me next. jt

i should have gone to the doctor. instead, i tried to let it pass. if you experience irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue, or light-headedness, you should talk to your doctor. afib increases the risk of stroke about 5 times. when it comes to your health, this is no time to wait. gwen: hi, we've both got a big birthday coming up. so we have a lot of questions about medicare plans. anne: we've got a lot of answers. how can i help? fran: well for starters, do you include hearing benefits? anne: how about a plan with dental, vision and hearing benefits? gwen: i sure like the sound of that! anne: then how does a zero dollar monthly plan premium sound? gwen & fran: ooooooooh! [laughs] avo: if you're new to medicare, call 1-888-65-aetna. we'll walk you through all your coverage and benefit options to help find the right plan for you. so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw!

whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. my mental health was much better. but i struggled with uncontrollable movements called td, tardive dyskinesia. td can be caused by some mental health meds. and it's unlikely to improve without treatment. i felt like my movements were in the spotlight. #1-prescribed ingrezza is the only td treatment for adults that's always one pill, once daily. ingrezza 80 mg is proven to reduce td movements in 7 out of 10 people. people taking ingrezza can stay on most mental health meds. ingrezza can cause depression, suicidal thoughts, or actions in patients with huntington's disease. pay close attention to and call your doctor if you become depressed, have sudden changes in mood, behaviors, feelings, or have thoughts of suicide.

don't take ingrezza if you're allergic to its ingredients. ingrezza may cause serious side effects, including angioedema, potential heart rhythm problems, and abnormal movements. report fevers, stiff muscles, or problems thinking as these may be life threatening. sleepiness is the most common side effect. it's nice. people focus more on me. ask your doctor about #1 prescribed, once-daily ingrezza. ♪ ingrezza ♪ looking for a smarter way to mop? try the swiffer powermop. ♪♪ an all-in-one cleaning tool that gives you a mop and bucket clean in half the time. our cleaning pad has hundreds of scrubbing strips that absorb and lock dirt away. ♪♪ and it has a 360-degree swivel head. that goes places a regular mop just can't. so you can clean your home faster than ever. for a limited time, save $8 on powermop. (vo) sail through the heart of historic cities and unforgettable scenery with viking. unpack once, and get closer to iconic landmarks, local life,

and cultural treasures. because when you experience europe on a viking longship, you'll spend less time getting there and more time being there. viking. exploring the world in comfort.

when looking ahead to november, what's a more worthwhile indicator, the polls or the past. joining us now, nbc news national political correspondent, steve kornacki. to start with the polls. tell us what the polls say, steve. >> neither the polls nor the past look particularly good for joe biden. at the start of his reelection year. certainly the one thing he has right now potentially is time to turn it around. let's look at the challenge he faces politically as he heads

into the state of the union address tonight. this is our most recent nbc news poll. joe biden's approval rating sitting at 37%. there have been a couple more recently polls just in the last couple of days that are consistent with this. his disapproval rating now reaching 60%. so we talk about the polls there, and now we talk about the past. how does this compare to his recent predecessor's, as they begin their reelection years, as they came to their state of the union speech, where was their approval rating compared to biden. go back 20 years. george w. bush, 2024, on a bit of a political high coming into the speech. bush at 54% approval. defeated john kerry, won reelection. barack obama was a tick under 50%, beat mitt romney, won reelection. four years ago, donald trump, a bit lower than obama, at 46%. trump lost to joe biden. and now joe biden has a 37% approval rating.

significantly lower than his modern predecessors. if you want to push the clock back further, the relatively recent incumbents to be at where biden is, jimmy carter 1980, george w. bush, they were both defeated for reelection. that's the historical challenge. on more specific issues, the economy at 36% approval for biden. more specifically, the war between israel and hamas, 29%. and there's some traits, some characteristics. this is from pugh, and they just read voters a list of different traits and characteristics, and said do you think each of these apply to joe biden. so where does he get the highest marks. right here on being even tempered, 62% say that describes joe biden well. that's something of a contrast, he wants to try to make between him and donald trump. you go to the other end of the list, where's the biggest area of concern for biden and these numbers. it's probably on questions like is he mentally sharp, 29%.

say that describes joe biden, is he energetic, 24% say that describes biden and that underscores the challenge and potentially the opportunity that joe biden has with his speech tonight because he gets to talk at length to massive audience. you don't get too many opportunities like that. maybe this year, biden will get that in his convention speech. it is at least an opportunity for him to relay, perhaps, those concerns on those questions, and we certainly know age is going to play a role in the campaign. it's getting a lot of attention so far. there is a challenge for biden on that front, certainly in the numbers, and an opportunity tonight for him in the speech. >> steve kornacki, thank you very much. joining us now, democratic strategist cornell belcher. we can talk about past opinion polls and how they match up to current opinion polls. i'm talking about past elections. 2018, republicans lost, 2020, republicans lost, largely, 2022,

republicans didn't do as well as they wanted or they lost. so when you look at the polls versus the past, would you be looking at approval numbers or should you be looking at past elections? >> you know, that's a really good question. katy, and i love the way you broke that down but i'm going to say neither. because we're in such a different place politically than we were 20, 30 years ago, so i think to a certain extent when you go back and look at historical presidential elections, america's a very different kind of politics. i think what matters most right now is quite frankly, from a campaign standpoint is do you have a good story to tell. and you look back at all of those presidents who got reelected, regardless of where they started, and approval ratings. they all had good stories to tell, right. clinton had a good story to tell in reelection. carter did not have such a great story to tell. bush, other side.

bush had a story to tell that resonated with america. especially around safety and security. barack obama had a good story to tell. does joe biden have a good story to tell? you just talked about it a couple of minutes ago. it's literally the best economy we've had ever in our history. so can he tell the american people a story about the economy and the job he's done, and where we have, you know come through the storm and better on this side. i think he can. can he tell young voters who are hanging back from him, katy. can he tell young voters a story of some accomplishments around big things that they care about. this presidential has done more around environmental issues than any president in the past. can he tell young people the story. again, not voting for trump, there's a false narrative that black people are breaking for trump. it's completely irrational, but i'm worried about them sitting at home.

can he tell black and brown americans a good story. whether you look at his record around policing and him having the most diverse government we have ever had and appointing the first african-american woman to the supreme court, i think he has a good story to tell that just got to do a good job of telling it. >> can he tell it, that's the question. do you expect he's able to do that? >> well, he can't do it tonight. i know we in the media, we hype up the state of the union, it's a big thing for us, but he can't do it in one night. the truth of the matter is what they've got to do tonight is regardless of what happens in the state of the union, they have to win the after, the spin. the truth is that social media and what goes viral and republicans have been winning the battle on social media. so it's not in the substance. it's can democrats win the

social media spin battle afterwards because that's the stuff that's going to level on long after most of us have forgotten about the state of the union address, and he can't turn around all the numbers, but he's sitting on a war chest for his campaign. they're going to have to spin to turn that around. >> cornell belcher good to have you, thank you very much. what donald trump's lawyers are begging a new york judge for and why. also, nbc's richard engel was on a plane dropping aid into gaza, what he saw, next. vapes increase cravings - trapping you in an endless craving loop. nicorette reduces cravings until they're gone for good. i know what it's like to perform through pain. if you're like me, one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, nurtec odt may help. it's the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and prevent, all in one.

don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. right now you can get a free footlong at subway. just buy any footlong in the app and get one free. just scan the qr code and enter promo code flbogo. it only works from the other side of the screen, buddy. you still got a land line in your house. order now in the subway app. with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, my skin was no longer mine. my active psoriatic arthritis joint symptoms held me back. don't let symptoms define you. emerge as you. with tremfya®, most people saw 90% clearer skin at 4 months... ...and the majority stayed clearer, at 5 years. tremfya® is proven to significantly reduce joint pain, stiffness and swelling it's just 6 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions may occur. tremfya® may increase your risk of infections

and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. emerge as you. emerge tremfyant®. ask you doctor about tremfya®. if you're living with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis or active psoriatic arthritis, symptoms can sometimes take you out of the moment. now there's skyrizi, so you can show up with clearer skin... ...and show it off. ♪ nothing is everything ♪ with skyrizi, you could take each step with 90% clearer skin. and if you have psoriatic arthritis, skyrizi can help you get moving with less joint pain, stiffness, swelling, and fatigue. and skyrizi is just 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine, or plan to. thanks to skyrizi, there's nothing

like clearer skin and less joint pain, and that means everything. ♪ nothing is everything ♪ ask your doctor about how skyrizi could help with your skin or joint symptoms. learn how abbvie could help you save.

(♪♪) we come from a long line of cowboys. (♪♪) when i see all of us out here on this ranch, i see how far our legacy can go. (♪♪) your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve memory. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. ♪3, 4♪ ♪ ♪hey♪ ♪ ♪are you ready for me♪ ♪are you ready♪ ♪are you ready♪

today in a joint mission, the u.s. and jordan dropped a third round of aid into gaza sending down more than 38,000 meals, a number that still falls dangerously short, though, according to the u.n. nbc news chief foreign correspondent richard engel was on one of those flights. >> reporter: we saw firsthand today how the aid operations into gaza are working, these air drops. we were on a jordanian military plane that left from jordan. it flew through israel over gaza and dropped pallets of food over the northern gaza strip, which is seeing the worst humanitarian crisis in all of gaza. people are starving to death. and from what we were able to see, it's helpful, it is help ing, but it's not nearly enough. it's far too slow, limited amounts of aid can get in.

it's very expensive and it's tra ordinarily time consuming. the one plane we were on today, the route had had to be cleared with the israelis and involved a large air crew, very professional air crew. it took their time, they had to coordinate the route with the israelis to make sure that there was no midair incident, that they weren't shot down. and the kinds of items that they are allowed by the israelis to send in is limited the planes have to be inspected. it is not the kind of solution that will provide the level of relief that gaza needs right now. now president biden is expected to announce later tonight a new step that the u.s. military will be leading the effort to open a temporary port. the iz ra elsies welcoming that decision describing it as a dock that would allow far more aid to go into gaza by ship is.

those ships leaving from cyprus, but that's something that's going to take weeks to establish and could take months to get up and running effectively. leaving the people of gaza with a fundamental question. is there going to be a cease-fire soon, or are they going to have to continue to live at their living right now incredibly precarious situation with a few aid drops or potentially in the coming weeks with a temporary sea port. >> next, donald trump is asking for more time to pay e. jean carrol the $83 million he owes her. what's his end game? owes her. what's his end game? [dog whimpers] [thinking] why always the couch? does he need to go to puppy school? get his little puppy diploma? how much have i been spending on this little guy? when your questions about life turn into questions about money... there's erica. the virtual financial assistant to help you spend,

save, and plan smarter. only from bank of america. only unitedhealthcare medicare advantage plans come with the ucard - one simple member card that opens doors where it matters for you. what if we need to see a doctor away from home? ucard gets you in with medicare advantage's largest national provider network. how 'bout using it at the pharmacy? yes - your ucard is all you need. huh - that's easy! can it help keep my smile looking good? yep! use your ucard at the dentist. say cheese! get access to what matters with the ucard only from unitedhealthcare. ♪ upbeat music ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ >> woman: what's my safelite story? i see inspiration right through my glass. so when my windshield cracked, i chose safelite.

they replaced the glass and recalibrated my safety system. that's service i can trust. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ always dry scoop before you run. listen to me, the hot dog diet got me shredded. it's time we listen to science. one a day is formulated with key nutrients to support whole body health. one a day. science that matters. ( ♪♪ ) we're still going for that nice catch. we're still going for that sweet shot. and with higher stroke risk from afib not caused by a heart valve problem, we're going for a better treatment than warfarin. eliquis. eliquis reduces stroke risk. and has less major bleeding. over 97% of eliquis patients did not experience a stroke. don't stop taking eliquis without talking to your doctor as this may increase your risk of stroke. eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. don't take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding.

while taking, you may bruise more easily or take longer for bleeding to stop. get help right away for unexpected bleeding, or unusual bruising. it may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. the number one cardiologist-prescribed blood thinner. we're going for it. ask your doctor about eliquis. (bobby) my store and my design business? we're exploding. but my old internet, was not letting me run the show. so, we switched to verizon business internet. they have business grade internet, nationwide. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy

by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. you can make money the hard way as a bullfighter join the millions of people t or a human cannonball... or save money the easy way, with xfinity mobile. existing customers can get a free line of our most popular unlimited plan for a year! not only will you save hundreds but you'll also be joining millions who have connected to america's most reliable 5g network. sure is a lot safer than becoming a stuntman for money. get a free line of unlimited intro for a year when you buy one unlimited line. visit xfinitymobile.com today to learn more. donald trump is on deadline. he has to pay $91 million by monday, but his lawyers keep asking the court to delay it. they did it again yesterday. why? joining us now is legal correspondent lisa rubin.

can we surmise it's because he doesn't have the money? >> that's one possibility. one is he's trying to figure out how to come up with it. but there's another possibility too. the attorney general's office has a brief due with respect to a similar request that donald trump is making to an appellate court here in new york. state. they want the same thing. they. the a stay without having. donald trump did you want want to have to post a bond for e. jean carroll and let the attorney general's office and know how much he has access to until they have to file their brief in opposition to his request for another unfunded stay. >> what happened? >> then there's the final judgment. he can still appeal. at any point in time, during the

pendency, he can post that bond. what it wouldn't stop, however, is e. jean carroll's lawyers starting enforcement proceedings. those don't happen overnight. so again, the fact that donald trump is asking for three additional business days, there's a mystery here. what magic is there to those three days? he surely doesn't expect that e. jean carr volume going to seize assets necessary to satisfy an $83 million judgment with interest in that three days. there must be some magic to that either because he still has to negotiate how he's going to get access to that bond or perhaps he has conditions of financing. donald trump has many outstanding mortgages on his various properties. it maybe that in one of his lending agreements, it says that having a final judgment without a stay constitutes an event of default. that would allow a lend ir to say your loan is due with interest right now.

>> michael cohen was saying there's a lot of debt on the buildings he owns and they are not so easy to post this money if he has to. what's the deadline for the $460 million that he owes to the state of new york? >> my understanding is it's march 25th, which the first day of trial is and jury selection in the new york da's criminal trial. the cover up of those payments in an effort to ensure that donald trump won election in 2016. >> and the steel dossier, there was a ruling in london, donald trump brought this lawsuit. he brought the lawsuit against the company behind the steel dossier. what happened with that? >> he now owes that company its six-figure legal costs related to bringing that lawsuit. in america,s you usually don't

have to pay the other side attorney's fees. there are exemptions to that. but here the case was brought in the uk. donald trump having lost that case, he now owes that company a six-figure sum to pay for their legal fees in that case. >> lisa rubin, a whole lot of money right there. thank you very much. and that is going to do it for me today. "deadline: white house" starts right now. hi, everyone. it's 4:00 in new york. to truly understand the black and white contrast between president biden and donald trump, just take a look at what's happening in the next 48 hours. president biden takes the podium for tonight's state of the union address, he will be on what is likely to be the biggest stage for the president before election day. that fact is