the coaches legacy on the line the beach started bawling out of its mind, long beach scoring three victories in three days. >> i knew how much they loved me and they showed it. >> by the end of the street he and his boys are putting an extension on their own march madness. >> we are going to live the dream this week. >> punching a premium ticket to the last dance for coach dan. >> long beach estate will face off against number two seed arizona on thursday and i am rooting for them. on that note i wish you a good night. from all of our colleagues across the network with nbc news.late with me. i'll see you tomorrow.

>> so i know you've probably heard the phrase history repeats itself. well, it's happening right now. i'm talking about recent history and it's happening in broad daylight. we're going to talk about that throughout the show tonight with many of the people who would know best. former trump aide sarah matthews was at the white house january 6th, 2021. she saw political violence and the lead up to it up close. she saw how donald trump incited it, and we're seeing that again. very fully with efforts to do delegitimize elections which, you guessed it, is happening again also. on that note, i want to start tonight by diving into a story out of arizona. where last month, a meeting of the maricopa county board of supervisors erupted into total chaos. a group of people swarmed the meeting, shouting of the members of the board were illegitimate because of voter

fraud. the cofounder of a pro trump group even commandeered a podium to announce, this is an act of insurrection. one county official describe the event as a coordinated attack, and, this struck with me, a dress rehearsal for the election. yes, when a bunch of election deniers lost in 2022, including many in arizona, it may have felt like we were putting this all behind us. it's important to remember, in this moment, that we really haven't. election denier carrie lake is running for senate in arizona, mark fincham, the oath keepers member who was at the capital january 6th is trying to return to the state senate, and this resurgence of the big lie isn't just happening in arizona. right now, the new trump rnc has been taken over by election deniers. and they're zeroing in on what they're calling and election integrity strategy. that strategy is, of course, i'm sure you're tracking this, not about protecting your boat at all. it's about voter suppression

and sowing doubt in the outcome of the election come november. that's what they're focused on. this is all a sign of history repeating itself. it's definitely not the only sign. i was in the white house in 2016 when russia was actively intervening in our election on behalf of donald trump. i remember it very well as i'm sure many of you do, and you can ask just about anyone who's been involved in national security who would know, and i have. >> vladimir putin has obviously, your friend and mine, he's intervened in our election in the past. it's not something as you experienced firsthand, it's not something we talk about a lot. do you fear that that's something that could be happening for 2024? do you think we should be talking about it more? >> i fear that the russians have proved themselves to be quite adept at interfering, and

if he has a chance, he'll do it again. >> should we expect russia to intervene on his behalf in 2024 if he's the nominee? >> of course. they will find ways to interfere. i hope our intelligence community is equipped to respond, maybe better than in 2016, but they'll come for this election. >> do you think they're going to intervene in our election? >> they're already intervening in our election. that is happening now. >> there's more than that, by the way, you can take their word for it or you can look no further than the fact that the star witness in the republican effort to impeach president biden may be, you guessed it, a russian asset. we have the sowing of doubt in the electoral process and effort to suppress the vote from the highest level and in important states, we can see that in arizona and the rnc, and we have russian influence in our political process which is already underway, unquestionably. when it comes to history repeating itself there's no example as a parent and as

concerning as the rise in political violence. over the weekend, donald trump said there will be a bloodbath for the country if he loses the election in november. after i discussed that yesterday, it's fair to say the right wing ecosystem got unhinged out there, but they asked us to consider the context. that's what we did. the context is that trump kicked off that same rally by saluting the people who were convicted for the deadly assault on the u.s. capitol on january 6th. all to the tune of the national anthem, sung by a choir of imprison insurrection it's. the first words out of his mouth were a big thank you to those rioters who he called patriots. at this same rally, he said, if this election isn't won, i'm not sure that you'll ever have another election in this country. of course this is much bigger than one unhinged rally. donald trump has been professing political violence for years. in 2017, when white nationalists descended on charlottesville in a deadly rally and trump said there were

very fine people on both sides. in 2020, trump approached his defense secretary, mark esper, about shooting people, protesting the death of george floyd, asking, can't you just shoot them? just shoot them in the legs or something. over the past few months, trump has warned of bedlam in the country and potential death and destruction if his criminal charges derail his presidential campaign. of course, in 2021 trump convinces reporters that the election was stolen from him. he worded any of the remaining faith in our institutions and told them to walk to the u.s. capitol and fight like . and he sat in the white house and watched the scenes on television as political violence engulfed the peaceful transfer of power. so yes. you absolutely have the option of buying the explanation that he was just talking about the auto industry in that speech over the weekend. you can do that. you can think election deniers in arizona are harmless,

because they lost in 2022. and you can ignore the fact that the russians are back at it, very much so, and assume it's all going to be fine. or you can play a role in shining a light on all of it, because it's all happening again. history is repeating itself, and everyone needs to be paying attention. joining me now is someone in the white house on january 6th, 2021 who witnessed the violent ramifications of donald trump's words up close, and who decided to resign her position on that day. former white house deputy press secretary for the trump administration sarah matthews joins me. thank you for coming back, i know we've talked before, i've been looking forward to talking with you. let me start with the comments from this weekend. what did you hear? you worked for trump for sometime coming to resign, as i noted, after january 6th gear he said it's going to be a bloodbath of the country, that will be the least of it. what did you hear when you heard that you mark the trump oftentimes speaks in these incoherent, vague sentences, so that allows people to draw the

conclusion that they want to to fit their own narrative. i think when you look at this sentence, obviously the trump campaign is out there saying of course he's talking about the auto industry, but then when why would he use a phrase like that's going to be the least of it immediately afterward? that alludes to something more. in my eyes, he could have been talking about the economy, but when you're looking at her the messenger was of this message, this is the man who helped inside a deadly insurrection on our nations capital. when he's using terms like bloodbath it's hard for me to give him the benefit of the doubt. >> he had a number of phrases i outlined in the same speech, that would be concerning to anyone listening, including a plotting insurrectionist and having the national anthem sung by many january 6th rioters. i would also note that he was not, he was for the auto industry going bankrupt. that's important for everyone to remember. i wanted to ask you, one of the

things that struck me is that many of the people, the same people who have been working overtime to explain and put into context his comments have not seemed to take an issue with the fact that he called insurrectionist, have been calling insurrectionist hostages, saying normally reserved for people in the military as you know, convicted for their role in their insurrection, what do you make of that context, here? the overspending and explanation of one comment when everything else seems okay? >> exactly. this one comment, they're saying, is overblown, but it does follow a proven track record of these kinds of unhinged comments from him, and increasingly violent rhetoric and apocalyptic rhetoric. when he says things like there's going to be death and destruction if he's charged in these criminal cases, that is, i think, a warning call to his supporters. he's telling them marching orders. we saw this happen in the lead up from the election in 2020 to january 6th, where he told them

to come to the capital. he said it was going to be a wild day that we needed to save our country. he's putting these kinds of messages out there, hoping that they will act on them. >> you're so familiar with his pattern of speech in his language and how he injects things that don't always make sense. and you saw that, leading up to january 6th. do you watch this? it must be difficult for you to watch personally. >> i think it is difficult to watch. it's disheartening, obviously i went and served in the trump administration because i believed in the policies, i didn't always necessary agree with everything he said or did, but it's really hard for me, now, to look at people that i admired, politicians and former colleagues of mine, who still are working for him, who are still supportive of him, because i think that he's just gotten increasingly erratic and unhinged in his behavior since losing the election. and i couldn't imagine going to support him or even cast a vote

for him, given everything that's transpired. especially when we look at something like january 6th and the stolen election claims. he's never shown any remorse for what happened that day, and treated almost like a celebratory occasion. as you noted, he plays an alternate national anthem at his rallies, and at the beginning of the rallies, they asked the attendees to please rise for the unfairly treated january 6th hostages, as he calls them. that's completely absurd. it is really disappointing to think that i once supported this man and believed in his agenda, and to see the type of things that he's pushing now. >> the reason i talked about maricopa county on the events of last month, you can see people watching and hearing his language, and echoing it in the way that we saw leading up to january 6th, which is what's so alarming. i want to ask you about former vice president pence, he said it's unacceptable, everyone has not said that, certainly.

he also said he wouldn't be endorsing donald trump. i wanted to get your reaction to those comments, and what you think the impact might be, or might not be, i guess. >> i honestly got emotional when i heard these comments. i know mike pence to be someone who is a man of faith, a good man, who only wants what's best for this country. i think that it took a lot of courage for him to come out and say that he would not be endorsing donald trump. it's unprecedented. no vice president has ever said that their own former boss is not fit to serve. and he knew, like i knew, when i spoke out against trump, that that effectively ends your career in republican politics. i think he knew that by saying he wasn't going to endorse him that he might have been signing away any future that he wanted in republican politics. so i admire him for coming out and saying that, i wish more republicans would have a backbone like him and follow

suit, because i know that so many republicans privately say these things, and believe donald trump is a disaster, and unfit to serve and that january 6th is a horrific day for our country, but they would never publicly say these things. >> do you think he's going to stick with it? >> i hope that mike pence sticks with it. obviously i think that he has said he won't endorse him right now, but it would be weird for him to go back on his word, then, and say he's not going to endorse him and then flip. i think it would make the most sense for him to stick to it. he did the right thing on january 6th and i hope that he'll continue to do the right thing and not endorse him, and i don't think that i necessarily expect him to say he's going to vote for joe biden, per se, >> i don't think joe biden is expecting that either. >> but i do think that it is a huge statement for an own vice president to say that he's not going to support his former boss. i hope that he does stick to his word on that. >> sarah matthews, i really appreciate you joining me

again, i hope you'll join me again in the coming months as we try to make sense of donald trump and the election and what people should understand about it. donald trump is having an awful lot of trouble securing a bond in his new york fraud case. what happens next, and when does new york attorney general get to start seizing assets? new york times reporter has spent years reporting on his finances and he joins me in just 60 seconds. stay where you are. are. shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free

stomach i want to take you back to 2016, when donald trump said repeatedly that he could sell fund his campaign, and therefore wouldn't be beholden to donors. >> hillary clinton's campaign is funded by wall street and hedge fund managers. my campaign is powered by my money. i'm self funding, so i'm not controlled by all these people that control hillary, crooked, crooked, crooked hillary.

i have tens and tens of millions of dollars, nobody else does. i put my own money into this. >> well, guess what? it wasn't true back then, it certainly isn't true today. in a new court filing appealing a civil fraud judgment trumps lawyers said today, obtaining a bond for $464 million is a practical impossibility. they also said they approached 30, basically all of them, different companies that provide appeal bonds but were rejected by every single one. seems like none of them wanted to take on the half billion dollar liability. i wonder why? the question is, what happens next? after the judgment was handed down, new york attorney general lakisha jaynes did not mince words. he was clear about what would happen if trump didn't pay up. >> if he does not have funds to pay off the judgment, then we will seek judgment enforcement mechanisms in court, and we will ask the judge to seize his

assets. >> i'm sure i'm not the only one wondering, which assets lakisha james has her eyes on. 80 we'll see soon. joining me now is david extensively about donald trump, his court settlements, and his finances, help us make sense of all of this. thank you so much, i'm going to start here. trump said in his deposition that he had substantially in excess of $400 million in cash. if that's true, none of us are mathematicians, but why isn't he able to come up with the other 170 million? >> probably a couple reasons. one is he's already had to put up cash for the e jean carroll verdict, there's another verdict where he had to pay more than $90 million. he got a company to put up a bond by giving them $91 million of assets as collateral. that's les. from our calculations he really only has about $350 million in cash, which is a lot but less than he needs now. now he's in a situation because

the e jean carroll money is gone, he's having to ask these bond companies to take a combination of liquid assets and real estate, which they've been unwilling to do and apparently is not the practice. they want the cash, they think you're going to lose this case. >> let me ask you about that. he did reach out to 30 companies, approach them about underwriting the bond, they all rejected it. what does that tell you? is that surprising to you? they don't want the risk? why did that happen? >> remember what we're doing here. the reason he's reaching out is he's lost the case, and he's now appealing it, but appeals like this don't have a huge amount of success. the banks don't want to take a risk, here. they don't want to have to take a risk that you're going to lose the case and they're owing to be on the hook for some of the money. they want you to prove that you have the money to pay this right now. that's how it works in cases

like this. this is an unusually large judgment but the procedure is the same, they want to make sure he has liquid assets big enough to cover the judgment which gets bigger every day with interest, and they don't think he does. >> he doesn't have illiquid assets to pay for this or the financial institutions are evaluating that, he does have a lot of money in properties. he could put up half a billion dollars and properties as collateral, right, to one of these bond companies? could he do that? >> they apparently are saying they won't take real estate as collateral. he would have to sell the property, get the cash, and they would take that as collateral. >> i'm not suggesting you have insider information but you are familiar with his assets. she's threatening to seize assets if it gets to that point, which the judge has to rule, which buildings do you think are in her eyesight, here. >> it looks like she would start with the easiest to get stuff. after this case she had pretty good catalogs of where his assets are, i think she would start with liquid assets. seizing bank accounts, brokerage accounts, things where there's liquid assets.

if she has to seize properties, that's complicated logistically and also because trumps properties often have these indentures on them. there's a case where trump tower, he really only owns the bottom part of trump tower and the commercial floors. his golf courses oh huge amounts of deposits to their golfers, their members. you can't just pick it up and take it away. one of the easiest ones to get would be trumps interest in a building on avenue of americas in new york, he owns a chunk of this building that someone else runs. that would be the easiest on paper to get, but i'm sure every one of these is going to be a fight, whatever path she chooses. >> he owes almost $112,000 every day in interest, that's so much money every time i say that or read that, every time the fine goes unpaid. it seems like the incentive would be to just pay it or figure it out, but is there incentive for him to delaying it? delay seems to be part of his strategy, too. >> this is a case where the delay seems to have run out.

on monday, he will owe this money and if he can't get a bond than the ag could start seizing these assets, he does have options, he could sell a property, we talked about the limits on the kinds of things he could sell, but he could sell a property. he could try to borrow money from a wealthy supporter or foreign government or god knows who, and imagine how much he would owe that person, literally and figuratively. or he could try to do this would cause a lot of complications for him down the road, it might not work, and would be a bad look in the middle of a presidential campaign. >> borrowing money from a company or who knows who might also be a bad look and something we'll be watching closely. let me ask you this, obviously his new york business background is part of his identity no longer lives in new york, but some people have shorthanded this as his new york business is over as we know it. what does it actually look like after this? >> put aside the question of

whether ag james seizes his assets, he's been barred from this ruling by running a business in new york for several years. the trump organization already was in a weird stasis, it hasn't shrunk that much, it hasn't grown since he left office, since he left the white house. i don't know what it's reason to be is. it's got a few golf courses, a few hotels, mar-a-lago, it seems like the smart thing to do already would have been to just get rid of these assets and shrink it down to the places he goes. but he hasn't been willing to do that so far. this might trigger that kind of collapse or major reorganization. >> fewer places to visit i suppose with your name on them, potentially. david, thank you so much for explaining, for breaking this down for us, i really appreciate your time this evening. coming up next, do you remember this guy? paul manafort? it turns out he's in talks to help out the trump campaign again this year. i've got some thoughts about that and a refresher i never

thought you needed, when we come back. come back.

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just when you thought this year couldn't get any weirder, the washington post reports that donald trump is expected to bring back his former 2016 campaign chairman. paul manafort. and rehire him as an adviser in his current campaign to retake the white house in 2024. you may be wondering, how is that possible? paul manafort is a is a

convicted felon who was at the center of the mueller investigation to russia's interference in the 2016 election. among other things you pleaded guilty to witness tampering and conspiring against the united states. he then backed out of his cooperation deal, lied to prosecutors and went to prison for trump, he was serving a seven year sentence while facing more charges when donald trump pardoned him just before leaving office. despite all of that, trump is reportedly determined to bring manafort back into the fold. so determined, in fact, that he could give manafort a role in the republican convention this july. now, that's a pretty big deal. and if a convicted criminal is going to be in charge of the republican convention this summer, we better brush up not just on his rap sheet but who exactly paul manafort is. so, here's the refresher you never knew you'd actually need. i didn't think you needed either. first of all, paul manafort has been a republican politics for a long time. no surprise, he once had a lobbying and consulting firm with another trump part and convict, roger stone.

it was manafort's deep ties to foreign clients, including a russian oligarch and the pro- russian former government of ukraine that raised eyebrows after the kremlin attack on the 2016 election. i wonder why. investigators from the probe and the senate intel committee both found that manafort regularly exchanged information with a russian intelligence operative. that russian operative was this guy, constantine clinic, and he's currently wanted by the fbi for ongoing efforts to interfere in american politics. in dealing with human 2016, manafort handed over trumps internal polling data, share the campaigns plan to win your election and even discussed specific battleground states. of course, as the u.s. treasury department later confirmed, klimnik faithfully relayed all that information to his bosses in the russian intelligence services. if that wasn't bad enough, an investigation by the senate intelligence committee later

revealed that the two pieces of information which are redacted from their report raised the possibility of manafort's potential connection to the kremlin's pack and the operations. we all know that manafort was swept up in the mueller probe, but klimnik associates who still works for russian intelligence continued to wage a covert influence campaign against the united states. according to the dni he was part of a kremlin effort to launder false narratives ahead of the 2020 election. u.s. ties to ukraine, denigrate biden and benefit trumps prospects for re-election. so, could manafort's dealings with a russian spy with a track record of election interference and given that he's been a conduit for russian influence, it's no wonder he was deemed a grave counterintelligence threat. and it's not bob mueller saying that, it's from a bipartisan report by senators of both parties. yet, here we are. this is the guy trump reportedly wants back in his campaign, and to help run the

republican convention, no less. we'll soon see if republicans are okay with that. coming up, the big lie is alive and well with the full backing of the rnc. voting rights attorney marc elias is standing by, he joins me after a short break. break.

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food became my comfort. i didn't think i looked pretty anymore, so i let myself go. i've seen the golo commercials for a while. what stuck out to me most was there was no celebrity endorser. the testimonials were from real people. what cancer took from me, golo gave back. (uplifting music) in 2020, donald trump tried and failed to overturn the election through conspiracy and intimidation, but those lies haven't disappeared, as we've been talking about on the show.

instead, they continue to fester and inspire violence and intimidation against public officials and election workers. including, as we mentioned earlier, in maricopa county, arizona. last month a board of supervisors, a majority of them are republicans, were forced to abruptly end a public meeting and be escorted out by police after members of a pro-trump conspiracy group rushed the dais, shouting that the board was illegitimate. a top county official told the washington post that the incident was an organized, coordinated attack, and that it was a dress rehearsal, which is a pretty chilling statement. since then, the board has rehearsed emergency evacuation drills, and they've had to. it's terrifying, but it shouldn't really be surprising. donald trump continues to push conspiracies about the 2020 election every chance he gets. the rnc just elected a new chairman with his own history of election denial, a conspiracy theorist as the rnc senior counsel for election

integrity. it's all a pretty clear signal of what to expect ahead of the 2024 election. an organized effort to legitimize election conspiracies and lies in a brazen attempt to undermine americans faith in their democracy. we've seen this movie before. joining me now is marc elias, a voting rights attorney and the founder of democracy the docket. you are a busy man, i'm grateful to have you on the show this evening. the rnc has already filed dozens of what they call election integrity lawsuits, including one just today targeting voter rolls in about a. they did one last week in michigan, the apparatus under trumps hand-picked leadership appears to be really prioritizing these lawsuits that limit ballot access and support these conspiracies. it seems very, very blatant to me. they're all in charge of the rnc. do you see this as different, how would you categorize it than what we saw in the lead up to 2020? >> unfortunately, in 2020, we largely caught them flat-footed

and donald trump surprised his own team, and had the keystone operation run by the likes of rudy giuliani, jen ellison sydney powell. the bad news is that since january 6th, 2021, rather than recoiling from the big lie, the republican party has refined it into not only a messaging campaign, not just an electoral campaign but a litigation strategy. here are a couple of numbers that should chill everyone. the fact is, in 2021, the year after donald trump tried to overturn the election with the insurrection, 25% of all anti- voting litigation that was filed was brought by the republican party and other republicans. in 2022 that number jumped to 52%. last year it was 68%. 68% of all the bad litigation going on in this country was sponsored by the republican party or its candidates, and already as you point out this year, we have seen a flood of

new efforts. fired not because she can raise money or because she wasn't trump enough that because donald trump wanted someone who was able to be more effective at making it harder to vote and easier to cheat, and that's what they're going to try to do in 2024. >> it seems to be the primary focus of the rnc. usually party committees are organizing voter outreach and funding state parties and trying to reach out to people. you've talked about the lawsuits which are your focus, nevada, michigan we mentioned. are there other tactics that are more under the radar, or that aren't getting as much attention that you think people should be aware of? >> absolutely. i have said that we're not going to solve the problems of democracy through the courts. the crew courts play an important role, but fundamentally what we have right now is a political party that knows it cannot win a majority of the popular vote, it won't even try. it can't win if everyone is able to vote who is eligible. so, the biggest threat to democracy and free and fair

elections this fall is what i have called election vigilantism by conservatives and republicans. what do i mean by that? we saw it in the run up to 2022 where you saw people, you saw conservatives with black jackets and body armor, videocameras staking out drop boxes in maricopa county trying to intimidate people returning their ballots. we saw unprecedented levels of voter challenges, this is right- wing efforts to misuse voter data to try to prevent lawful people from being able to be registered and vote. we saw 364,000 georgians challenge in the 2021 election and another 100,000 challenged last year. we have seen these kinds of widespread efforts to try to intimidate election officials and intimidate voters, and try to dissuade them from voting, because that is the republican playbook, and it is upon all of our responsibilities to fight back against that this fall.

>> so part of this is obviously preparing, it seems, you tell me, to challenge or question the outcome of the election in november. especially if joe biden wins. what is that going to look like? what should people be prepared to see you mark >> anyone who thinks that donald trump was talking about the auto industry has been living in a cave for the last few years. donald trump showed us what he would do in 2020. he would lie, he would spread misinformation, he would coddle with every bad dictator in the world. then, when that wasn't enough, he would abuse the legal system and when that wasn't enough he would inspire a violent insurrection in the nation's capital to prevent the certification of the election. that's what he was willing to do in 2020. now he faces a long prison sentence, he faces an existential crisis to himself and his freedom. he will do anything in 2024.

so we should expect to see the tactics that he and the rnc and others will engage in around election intimidation, voter harassment, trying, to intimidate election officials, replace good election officials with big lie adherence, and ultimately, ultimately, if that is not enough in the aftermath of the election, we have to be ready for him to, as he promised from the stage, just the other night, have there be widespread violence. >> marc elias, there's so much litigation we've got to be watching, i hope we can have you back on many times before the election. you so much for joining me this evening. coming up, as we head toward the general election, more warning signs how independent voters see trumps legal troubles, but warning signs for the biden team as well, standing by in washington to explain, she joins me next. nex

one of the most striking things about the republican primary was how much donald trump legal troubles seemed to help him. as we head toward the general election, it's important to remember that independence and the larger electorate are a different ball game. donald trump will soon be the first president to stand at in the middle of april. a new poll shows that more than one third of independent voters is a guilty boat verdict would make them less likely to vote for him. 75% of independence say that he shouldn't be ending in from present criminal prosecution. put his legal troubles finally catch up to him among independence? in a close election, how big a difference could that make you mark joining me now the editor- in-chief and public letter of the political report, amy walter. the fact that you're making the archives available makes a political nerd like me thrilled. >> even if you're not a big nerd to go back 40 years and look at some of these contests

that we're talking about some of the same people today. in many cases you can see the way in which our politics has changed so dramatically. over the last 40 years, in actual print. >> and the parties. let me ask you about the poll i just outlined. pulling his tricky. it's a bet on things. it does surprise me that if he's convicted, it makes such a difference. people know the facts and details of these, but what do you make of that? and the impact of trumps legal troubles? >> i think it's really hard, like you said, it's a hypothetical right now, and mark blumenthal, a democratic pollster for years and ran in independent polling, wrote something the other day that i thought was really smart. back in the time of the impeachment of bill clinton in 1998, voters were asked a hypothetical during that,

saying, if he's impeached, should he resign? a lot of voters said absolutely he should resign, if the president is impeached, he can't serve any longer. until we went through the whole impeachment process, we know what happened in that election, and by the time the impeachment process ended, the same voters were saying, no, he shouldn't resign. i don't know that you can get voters, at this moment, to say how they will react to whatever is going to come up, and remember it's not just trumps legal troubles. we're going to have the supreme court make a lot of decisions about a lot of other issues, the alabama supreme court, now, is a major issue in this election, and their decision on ivf. the courts are playing a big part. >> you were at this recent piece, i rented a couple of times because it's interesting, you love data, i love data. titled, biden hasn't converted anti-trump voters to provide an voters. the piece is about how the biden team has not converted

these people to become, they're excited about joe biden. a lot of them are anti-trump, if trump isn't of the center of the conversation, biden is not interested in listening to it and is one reason why efforts to sell biden accomplishment on the economy jobs and infrastructure haven't broken through to succeed, biden need the election to be about trump. he's got accomplishments, there are lots of things he can talk about, but it's all about winning. are you basically saying, >> you know, every campaign, you can't just be the person, you have to sell yourself as well. but when you look at, coalition, the numbers that i stated were interesting, nbc polling from the going into the trunk 2016 campaign, and into that election, most people who voted for trump in donald they were anti-hillary clinton. he only had about 39% of voters are saying, i'm showing up for him. by the time we got to 2020, 72% of his voters were voting for

him, and very few were voting against biden. biden came into 2020, about a third saying i'm voting for biden, the rest saying i'm voting against trump. that's the same number he's getting in the nbc poll now, a third voting for him, essentially and two thirds thing i'm voting for him because i don't like trump. if that's your coalition, your coalition, mostly one thing, and that is donald trump. the less that donald trump is in the picture, the harder it is for biden to make his case. you see anytime that trump comes into the news or something around a trump issue is front and center, you get much more interest and engagement from the voters who turned out, and voted for biden in the last election. >> there's lots of things people are mad about, it's not just one thing. the interesting thing about it. the other thing i read today, more data, is that, a lot of people looked at the fact that

trump was overestimated in polls in a lot of the primaries, and he didn't perform as well in most of them. 10, 15 points in a number of them. there was a piece today about how that's not a predictor of the general, and there's lots of things to be debated but i wanted to ask you about that, what you thought, and you agree with that assessment you mark >> i do. the number i look at with donald trump is not the gap between the vote he's getting and what votes say biden or any of his other opponents are getting. that's what you said, 18 points, 20 points. look at the vote share. what percent of the vote is he getting in the polls and what percent of the vote does he end up getting on election day? they really weren't that far off, it basically tells you, what's his floor? more, what's his ceiling? so, i think what we learned from the primaries, we'll be digging more into this, i know the washington post looked into some of these voters who showed up in georgia and voted, voted

for nikki haley, many of them had voted in the democratic primary in 2020. it's not to say that there aren't nikki haley voters that may be trump voters from 2020, but there aren't as many as it looks, based on those primary results. >> you got to be clear about the data. amy walter, thank you so much, i can't wait to go through every house race with me. i've got one more thing to tell you about before i hand things over to rachel maddow, it involves asbestos. we're back after a quick break.

okay. here's the good news, president biden's epa announced today that it is banning the ongoing use of asbestos, which is used known to cause lung cancer and mesothelioma and a long list of other health issues. it also kills tens of thousands

of americans every single year. lots of people, banning it makes all the sense in the world. but donald trump is not most people. the former president actually has a long and loving relationship with asbestos. in a book he wrote in 1997, he falsely claimed that it's 100% safe. he also said the movement against asbestos was led by the mob, because it was often mob related companies that would do the asbestos removal. and then in 2005, he talked about asbestos during a hearing in the u.s. senate. my friend chris hayes dug up this clip a few years ago, and you have to see it to believe it. >> in new york city, we have a lot of asbestos building, and there's a whole debate about asbestos. a lot of people could say that the world trade center had his best those it wouldn't have burned down, it wouldn't have melted, okay. a lot of people in my industry think asbestos is the greatest fireproofing material ever, ever made. and i can tell you that i've seen test of asbestos versus

the new material that's being used, and it's not even a contest. it's like a heavyweight champion against a light weight from high school. but in your great wisdom, you folks have said asbestos is a horrible material so it has to be removed. >> just absolute crazy town, there. that claim on twitter as recently as 2012. fast-forward to his time as president and predictably, the trump administration thought legislation that would have banned as best those, and imposed a policy that the epo zone scientists warned about. trump was known as the king of asbestos that in 2018, a russian asbestos company was marketing its product with trump's face on it. can't make it up sometimes. trump's affinity for asbestos almost certainly has to do with the cost of removing it, and how much that probably bothered him during his time in real estate, but this is also an important reminder that if he gets back into office, he would likely try to roll back even some of the most sensible

government regulations. i think the lesson of the night is that we've got to keep our eye on the big stuff. all of the big stuff, including asbestos and the little stuff including trump's crazy comments, and basically everything in between. and we'll keep doing that on this joe for all of you, every time we have it, i promise you. that does it for us tonight, we're looking forward to watching rachel maddow's show, and the rachel maddow show starts right now. >> thank you very much, much appreciated. >> thank you. thanks for joining us at this hour, we're happy to have you here. this is a story about us, a story about the united states. it has always been a story about us, but in telling this story, what you quickly find is that there are stories from all over the place. over the place.