came down with two rulings this week i'm going to focus on the good one, the bad one was banning abortion in florida. but there will be a constitutional amendment on the ballot that they fought hard for, and the people of florida can change it, and i think they will. >> i have decided that who won the week? the women of the ncaa, nobody cares about the men's, they just care about the women and baltimore strong, angel reese from baltimore, katelyn clark, page beckers, you name it, these sisters were bawling, they are some of them about to get into the wnba and make the wnba hot, the women of the ncaa ones of the week. thank you, christina greer, susan, be sure to watch allie's show tomorrow sunday morning at 10:00 eastern as i do every week, that is tonight's reid out, a special inside with jen psaki starts right now.

>> good evening from washington, d.c., i'm jen psaki, chris hayes is taking some well-earned time off for tonight, he'll be back at his regularly scheduled time next week, i promise. we begin tonight with his ongoing humanitarian crisis in gaza. today, u.s. secretary of state antony blinken said israel must do more to ensure crucial aid makes its way to civilians in gaza. >> these are positive developments, but the real test is results. is the aid effectively reaching people who need it? throughout gaza? are the bottlenecks and other delays at crossings being resolved? do we have a much better system for the confliction and coordinations of the humanitarian folkers who are delivering aid can do it safely and securely? >> we are, of course, six

months into this war, seven months, almost since the attack on october 7th. 30,000 palestinians in gaza are dead. two thirds of whom are women and children. today the secretary-general of the united nations also warned that children are dying of starvation and dehydration. secretary comments come as agrees to open the border crossing which is been closed since the terror attacks by hamas. that left more than 1000 dead and hundreds more israelis taken as hostages. the israeli government agreed to open the crossing in response to perhaps the most heated phone call yet between president joe biden and israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu. netanyahu, a significant moment during which the president warned that the current situation is clearly becoming untenable. and stressed that an immediate cease-fire is necessary to protect civilians. this all leads to the question of what, at this point, exactly can be done to end the war? what can change by minister

netanyahu's trajectory, his approach? if you're sitting in the white house right now, here's a question you're likely considering. will cutting off military aid, and which military aid to israel, change netanyahu's overall approach to this war? we just saw progress with that yesterday, from the threat, following the threat to condition military aid. not only we saw progress in the pledge to reopen the crossing, but also according to the new york times thomas is from netanyahu to empower his negotiators working on a deal to end the conflict and release the hostages. as well as additional measures to reduce civilian casualties. netanyahu's military released a report this morning taking some responsibility for the deaths of seven humanitarian aid workers in an air strike earlier this week. the idf officials responsible have been fired. the statement says the convoy was mistakenly targeted, and this was from an investigation done by the idf, which frankly script stretches credulity.

the organization they work for put out a powerful, powerful statement today including this line which has stuck with me all day. without systemic change, there will be more military failures, more apologies, and more grieving families. so yes, there's definitely been progress made in the last 36 hours, but we're pretty far from ending the war. and all the suffering. far from bringing hostages home and we are still facing famine in gaza. there seems to be movement toward the strategy changing, so what does that look like? it probably doesn't look like cutting off all aid all at once for a range of reasons, including a big threat from iran that's been increasing over the last several days and weeks. shutting off military aid could actually embolden the iranian military at a time when tensions between the two countries are particularly heightened following israel's deadly strike against iran's embassy in damascus. nbc news is reporting as of today that white house officials are worried iran may

strike within israel as a retaliation, and the military equipment and assistance provided by the united states is also used by israel to protect against attacks by his iranian proxies like hezbollah. all of that is a factor that, if you're sitting in the situation room, you have to discuss. so what are the options? the administration could slow the rapid pace at which they've been arming israel during the last six months, or cut off specific military weapons, this is happened before. in 2016, not that long ago the obama administration cut off the sale of guided weapons to saudi arabia in response to the level of civilian casualties in the war in yemen. there could also be a differentiation between offensive and defensive weapons, something a number of senators, including my first guest, senator tim kaine, has called for. the main point is this, the u.s. has lots of leverage here. without the u.s. supply of

military weapons, israel has few options to gain immediate access to this type of military equipment, and that leverage should be used. that's the opinion of a growing number of democratic elected officials. people who are also allies of joe biden, who are calling for more to be done. >> i think we're at the point where president biden has said, and i have said and others have said, if benjamin netanyahu, prime minister, were to order the idf at scale, they were to drop thousand pound bombs and send in a battalion to go after hamas and make no provision for civilians, or humanitarian aid, that i would vote to condition aid to israel. i've never said that before. i've never been here before. >> you cannot continue to talk about your worries about humanitarian situation in gaza, and then give netanyahu another $10 million or more bombs. you cannot do that. >> when we talk about conditions, the bottom-line condition has to be full accommodation for the delivery of humanitarian aid to the suffering people in palestine.

>> so there's clearly a shift, here. just today former speaker of the house nancy pelosi signed onto a letter with nearly 40 of her colleagues demanding that the president and offensive arm transfers to israel. if the u.s. does take any of these routes, what are they watching for from the white house? secretary blinken spoke to some of this, and end to the war is the long-term goal but there are also smaller benchmarks along the way that they would be watching, like ending israel's movement toward a crowd offensive into rafah, additional assurances that aid will make its way into gaza, like an actual deal to return these hostages who have been held for almost seven months. or a real plan to de-conflict military attacks so there's a better protection of humanitarian workers who are just trying to help the people suffering. six months into this conflict it is clear that something different must be done, and all indications seem to be that is where the conversation is moving, both inside and outside the white house.

joining me now, senator tim kaine, democrat of virginia, he sits on the foreign relations committee as well as the senate armed services committee, and he joins me now. thank you so much for being with me tonight. i really want to dig into what can happen to end this war, but i want to start with this new reporting today about the concerns in the white house about iran striking military targets inside israel. is that something you've been briefed on, are you concerned as well about that threat you mark >> i'm very concerned about it. we are in the end of a two week easter recess and i haven't had classified briefings since this alert was posted. however, as soon as israel struck iranian officials in damascus, we knew the likelihood that was that iran would respond. that's just what happens, and i'm sure the israeli military also expected there would be retaliation if they did that. this is a dangerous moment, where we don't need more

escalation. we're already seeing not only a war in gaza but hezbollah attacks into israel from the north, iranian militia in iraq and syria taking action against israel and u.s. positions, firing missiles into the red sea, the last thing we need is an escalation between iran and israel right now, and that puts the onus back on all of us to work together to find a hostage deal that would release hostages in exchange for a cease-fire, we could flood the zone with humanitarian aid into gaza, safely, and we would open up space for a discussion about an extended cease-fire and also about what would the future be for palestine? that we'll be back where we are right now if we don't meaningfully engage instead of playing nick lipservice to the notion that palestinians have a right to an autonomous future. it will be different than what was contemplated in 1948, but it's been a discussion that has been long delayed that needs to

happen but we can only get there if we get into a cease- fire and a hostage release deal. >> senator, you've called for only providing defensive weapons, not offensive weapons. help us understand what the difference is, what weapons would you not be comfortable providing that we've been providing in the past to israel? >> i think more offensive weapons that have the possibility of killing civilians and humanitarian aid workers right now is just pouring gasoline on a fire that's already raging out of control. israel needs to defend itself against those who would annihilate it and the u.s. has always been a partner in that. that includes hamas, hezbollah, that includes iran. systems that we have worked with israel on in the past like the iron dome system which intercept missiles and rockets fired at israel, those are the kinds of things that we should be continuing to provide. i voted for defense aid to israel in a supplemental package that passed in february, we're still waiting

for the house to take it up, it included humanitarian aid into gaza. there's plenty we can do that will make sure that israel can defend itself against threats including this very serious threat from iran. more offensive weapons into this theater of war right now is only going to lead to more and more bad outcomes, not to the escalation that we need to see. >> let me ask you about the pacing. this is one of the typical decision-making topics, if you're a senator on the committee you're on in the white house. there could be an approach, here, i'll outline this at the top of the show, where there's threats, they wait to see if there's progress, maybe they cut off individual weapon systems as you remember, the obama administration did in 2016. there's calls to do more, cut off f-16s by senator warren, what is the pacing of this that you're comfortable with? >> actually, i think the pacing issue that's the most crucial

issue right now is to see israel dramatically increase the allowance of humanitarian aid into gaza. this is a war against hamas, it shouldn't be seen as a war against palestinians or a war against gaza. but the allowance of this humanitarian crisis to spiral out of control with starvation and famine and medical emergencies, that is what is creating such an escalator a pressure in the region, and israel has an obligation pursuant to a biden administration security memorandum as a recipient of u.s. security aid to do what every other recipient must do, cooperate with u.s. humanitarian efforts, the strike on the world central kitchen aid workers this week which is not only tragic in that it killed aid workers but tragic because it's blocking aid from getting to suffering palestinians, and making other ngos that are providing

humanitarian aid potentially step back from their necessary work, even the u.s., which is building a marine peer in the eastern mediterranean to help get humanitarian aid into gaza, that operation is threatened by what happened this week. the pacing issue that's the most important issue right now is for israel not to fight until the very last minute and then eventually agreed to open a new border crossing that should have been opened weeks or months ago, we need to see robust delivery of humanitarian aid safely to a civilian population that's suffering during this war, and suffering under the thumb of hamas. that's the pacing issue that i think is the most urgent right now. >> i'm asking because of exactly that, what is the leverage to ensure they will do that? there's threats right now, at what point is it if they don't provide additional humanitarian assistance, more expansively, that you think there should be additional weapon systems cut off? >> i think these things all fit

in together. i don't know that there's if a, then b, i don't think this is a math problem. this is a problem of human tragedy at a significant scale. the hamas attack was horrific, the reason for the attack and the timing of the attack was partially to disrupt u.s. israel saudi normalization discussions that included a discussion about a future for palestine. hamas doesn't want a palestine and israel living side-by-side. it's a very hard problem to solve to enable israel to defend itself against those who were intent on its destruction, but protect all these innocent civilians who aren't part of hamas, who are under the thumb of hamas and don't deserve to suffer. it's not a simple mathematical equation. i do think the president was firm in the conversation with the prime minister yesterday, the prime minister and his war cabinet scrambled and said, okay, we'll open up the erez crossing again, this should have been done a long time ago.

with the opening in december, with the agreement yesterday to expand humanitarian shipments in the southern gaza, with the new opening of this border crossing, what we need to see is a dramatically increased pace of humanitarian aid to suffering gazans and to see that it can be done safely. what ngo is going to safe doing it after watching what happens to the world central kitchen staffers this week? again, even this u.s. military operation, these are troops that are deployed out of virginia, fort eustis in virginia in charge of this operation, we knew when we announced it they might be in harm's way from hamas. but after the events of this week on anybody doing humanitarian aid is going to wonder if they're in harm's way from the idf. we've got to see a dramatic uptake in israel allowing humanitarian aid to suffering people, and we come back on the

senate next week and we have a hearing with the armed services committee with usaid director and the foreign relations committee. this topic is going to dominate congress as soon as we get back on monday. >> senator tim kaine, thank you, it's so helpful to dig into a very difficult, difficult issue, appreciate your time tonight. i'm going to get you some tea with honey as well to thank you with your voice, thank you, senator. coming up, andrew weissman and lisa rubin break down trumps attempt to ditch the judge in the upcoming hush money trial. as the biden economy continues to flourish, trumps new stock sputters. stephanie ruhle explains why the experts are trashing truth social, coming up next. coming wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools,

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>> not a political question about former president trump, but a business question about truth social. you've seen this on the move in this remarkable, maybe even crazy. >> let me say two words. game stop. he has no revenue. i think they're dopes. who would buy a company that literally, they have $30 of revenue? why would you put, how could you put a value on it? they're buying it for other reasons just like they bought theaters when there was no theater business or they bought game stop or whatever. it's stupid. it's stupid stuff. it's a scam like everything

he's ever been involved in is some sort of con. >> a scam, a calm, stupid, medial executive barry diller did not mince words when asked about the skyhigh valuation of the company that owns donald trump truth social platform. which trades under the ticker symbol dj t. emphasizing its association with the quadruple he indicted ex-president, who is now also the presumptive republican nominee. while the stock made a huge splash when it first began treating last week, it quickly began losing value. it seems some investors are catching on to what diller was saying. as of today, a selloff has raised nearly $2 billion of value from donald trump steak. stephanie ruhle is the nbc news business analyst and host of nbc's the 11th hour, and the best explainer of the economy out there bar none. she joins me now, so, stephanie, you know these players, you know the economy so well. give me your reaction to what barry just said.

what did you make of what he had to say? >> he never does. i remember when donald trump was running for office, it was years ago, barry dillard looked in the camera and said, he's a two bit huckster, a scam artist, barry has been saying that for years, which by the way most people in the business community have been saying about donald trump, so when you watched him there, he doesn't take this seriously. he's exasperated because barry runs a public company where you actually have to have the fundamentals of a company analyzed, and then people invest in that company, and you have to accurately represent to your potential shareholders what this company does, and the earning potential. none of that is happening, here. you saw barry, he's not even taking it seriously. >> he seemed perplexed, like he was at a loss for words, which he doesn't typically have during what he says.

we've seen the stock go down a significant amount, what the impact of a takedown like that? is there one? >> let's be clear, everyone saying the stock has dropped so much, it has, but it is still worth billions of dollars, and this is a company, this is the greatest con out there. you to donald trump's social media company that has no technology innovations, it has no interesting products, it is just donald trump super posting day in and day out, a couple guys from the apprentice said, let's turn this into a company that we can go public with, and that's what they've done. he can't sell the stock right now because there's a lockup period, and it'll be interesting to see what happens. a lot of the buying and selling over the last week and a half, there was craze around it, there is some kind of true donald trump believers, the crowd that might be buying the sneakers or buying the bibles, but, then there's others who are daytraders playing this game, barry mentioned the same people who are buying, game

stop and the movie theater company, during covid when there was a total disconnect from the performance of this company, at the end of the day, this company loses tens of millions of dollars. the people who are truly in it, this is what people should be concerned about, or potentially people who are trying to make unregulated donations, curry favors with a person who might be the next president of the united states. and that is serious cause for concern, because here's the issue. its legal. >> which is so crazy. it's also, as barry just said, they're doing it for other reasons, which seems like what you just articulated. the question my girlfriend asked me a lot and friends that are guys, i'm sure you get asked this is, is this going to help bail donald trump out of legal bills? it seems like that has calmed down, but what do you tell people who are asking you that?

>> it might. he's the luckiest guy in the world, think about this. he's sitting there facing hundreds of millions of dollars in fines, in legal bills, he's got 80+ charges against him and he's running for president. he could end up cashing out of this, and finding a solution just like it's extraordinary that he found this guy in l.a. this week to secure his bond, and the funny thing is, the guy who put $175 million up for trump said, when they lowered the cost, it was going to be 464 million, when they dropped it to 175, he said i thought trump had the money, he wouldn't need it. maybe donald trump does, but you know what he specializes in? opm. spending other people's money, and he's done it again. >> he's done it. opm, people need to learn that phrase. let me, the u.s. economy added

over 300,000 jobs in march, good numbers, unemployment rate declining slightly, wages rising faster than inflation. explain why some people are saying this is a good report, the bad news potentially for biden because of the impact it may have on the decisions the fed makes. >> we're going to go for a few things. as we're talking about this, twitter is going to go crazy, we're not. let's put it over here. we're just explaining. we have a very strong economy, our economy continues to grow, we've had a better recovery than any other country in the developed world post-covid, great news. however, inflation is an issue, even though it's load, it's an issue. what the president and the country would like is for the fed to cut interest rates, to lower borrowing costs, and when the job market is still less hot, that might make the fed

hold off. when you look at the job market is hot you realize, this is great for america, there's an immigration story in there with all those immigrants who are coming into the country, they're getting scooped up into the labor force in this country, but the issue for the president that the not good story is despite all of this positivity, he has the overhang of inflation. you and i can sit here and talk about all of this good stuff, but people's lived experience day in, day out, their car insurance, buying a car, their rent, the grocery store, going to a restaurant, life is expensive, and is corporate greed partially to blame? absolutely. but that is just part of the story. it is really good news that we're seeing wages go up, in california minimum wage is about to go to $20 an hour. that's great news for our labor force, and well that shouldn't automatically mean we should expect higher prices, it is what we end up getting. if you own a small business out there, if you owned a sandwich

shop and you are now paying your employees more money, that's going to help retain employees, it's going to help attract employees, in the end, you might end up charging more. because all sorts of your input costs are going up. it's something we have to currently get used to, but it makes this to be a difficult communications challenge, and is your expertise for the white house. >> you're pretty good at this. i know you know a lot of things, but you're the economic explainer in chief. stephanie ruhle, thank you as always, have a great show tonight, wonderful to see you. still ahead, why is president biden taking a page out of the george w. bush playbook? first, how donald trump plans to delay his upcoming hush money trial, next. trial, next. and the speed limit definitely isn't. 700 million mph. so why would you pay a rate based on. a terrible boss with a terrible haircut! save with, ooh. save with drivewise and get a rate based on you.

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lawyers for donald trump filed a new brief today, asking the judge in his upcoming new york hush money trial to recuse himself from the case. can't make it up sometimes. this 37 page brief argues that judge juan mershon cannot be impartial because his daughter is a political fundraiser for democratic causes and candidates. drums lawyers have made a version of this argument before, and it was rejected. trump even took to social media blasting the judges daughter, which led the court to expand a gag order against the former president earlier this week. at the trump legal team now says that they have hard evidence of political bias, in the form of social media post by the judges daughter, in their brief, drums lawyers write, the court is now threatening president trump with contempt, and worse if he

points out the courts familial conflicts. the current situation is patently unjust. accordingly, president trump respectfully requests that the court recuse itself. from pages 34 felony counts in connections to his payments to an adult film actress to stay quiet about their sexual relationship, and the trial is set to start in just 10 days. andrew wiseman is a former assistant u.s. attorney who helped lead the mueller investigation, lisa rubin is a former litigator and msnbc legal analyst, two of my favorite legal eagles joining me, thank you so much. let me start with you, you are an expert on many things, one of your specialties is following the money. the trump legal brief goes deep on how much money judge merchan's daughters political firm makes, it's continuously talking about this. is this an actual legal argument? i hope not, or just a desperate

stab at exciting trump's base, who loves these conspiratorial arguments? >> it's the latter. this is being made on the friday before the last week the trial begins. 10 days away. and there is a doctrine in the law which is, you cannot sit on your rights. there is nothing new in here that could not, either was known, or could have been known a lot earlier than this. so if you really can't make this at the last minute in order to recuse somebody. and i've said this before, and i really want people to focus on one thing. this brief is not signed by all of the lawyers on trump steam. i keep on saying that because it's such a tell. one of the lawyers, susan, is a highly respected defense lawyer in new york. lots of us know her and think that she's really terrific. she went to yale, she's been a defense lawyer for years, and she is ethical.

she did not sign this brief. to me, that is such a sign to the judge as to why she didn't. >> that's such an interesting point. i definitely did not notice that. i want to hear your reaction to that and your thoughts on the significance of that, and i want to ask you about, trump, isn't he undermining it by trashing the judges daughter on social media before his lawyers filed the brief? it seems crazy to me, i'm a nonlawyer, but tell me about the lawyer sitting out and that piece as well. >> let's talk about the one lawyer sitting out, andrew makes a very good point, an observation, we've seen things like this before, for example i can think of a situation a couple of years ago where a federal prosecutor signed a brief that others would not, in their office, and that also made a statement. it was also in a trump related case. going back to, does this undermine their argument because they have spent so much time specifically defending

their clients right to say whatever he wants about the daughter. they say that the social media posts were in service of this recusal argument. i think the tail is wagging the dog, there. that's not the case. unfortunately for them, their political and legal strategies have collapsed into one. if you read through this motion in detail, it reeled like a research brief and not the actual research document. and that's also a tell, the trump operation seems to be working from the same playbook all the way around, everybody is part of the same operation, political strategy, legal strategy, they can't be distinguished anymore. >> i read it thinking, the number 17 democratic firm in the country or something like that, which is, what does that have to do with anything? let me ask you, it's important to understand what the legal argument and what's not. drums lawyers also say judge merchan can't be impartial because he talked about the case publicly. here are the comments they cite. you're on a reportedly stated

that getting ready for the historic trial is intense. that's a humdinger, there. the court is striving to make sure that i've done everything i could to be prepared and to make sure that we dispense justice. outrageous. there's no agenda here, we want to follow the law, we want justice to be done, that's all we want. none of that sounds biased to me. why are they making the argument that those are cases of him exhibiting that? >> there's one thing that you left out. in connection with all of those statements, he said, i want to be clear, i'm making general comments, none of it should be taken to reference this case. he was talking about what the court in general does, in front of it, what is the role of the rule of law and the judge in the system, but he pointedly said in that piece, i am not in any way going to talk about or reference this specific case.

that is, again, laughable, as lisa points out this is not, the audience for this brief is not the court. it is the court of public opinion, and just a sliver of that court of public opinion. i think this is one where we still should be a week from monday. >> lisa, before i let you go, i have to ask one more question. it seems ironic to me that the trump team is going so hard on the judge, but they aren't saying the same thing about aileen canon. maybe is not surprising, i understand aileen canon has bias but it's a bit ironic. am i wrong? >> it's not not ironic, but there are ways to distinguish the two situations if we're being there. we don't have any indication that judge aileen has someone in her family occupies a similar space in the republican stratosphere that judge merchan's daughter does, and they point that out in the brief.

a city of aileen cannon had a first-degree relative who worked for maga inc., people on the left would be screaming bloody murder, and they're not wrong about that. that having been said, what establishes the two is judge merchan actually makes ruling and they don't like those rulings, and judge cannon, for the most part, is avoiding ruling on anything at all, and when she does, it happens to be sometimes in the special counsel's favor even though it doesn't seem that way in the long run. >> andrew wiseman, lisa rubin, thank you both for joining me on a friday evening, good to see you as always. still ahead, it was not long ago and far too many people claiming no one watches women's sports. after a quick break. break. but when it comes to working from home, i gotta have every part of my house clean. that means tidying up, then spraying my febreze air mist, to leave every room smelling fresh and clean. with that done, it's time to get to work. ♪ la la la la la ♪3, 4♪ ♪ with that done, it's time to get to work.

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clear that female athletes in the ncaa received nowhere near the same amount of consideration as their male counterparts. one stark example, shared by players on social media, was the disparity in their weight rooms at the 2021 tournament. you may remember this. >> i got something to show y'all. for the ncaa march madness, the biggest tournament in college basketball for women, this is our weight room. let me show y'all the men's weight room. that was three years ago. >> now fast forward to this week, the men's and women's march madness tournaments are coming to a head. on monday night, 12.3 million people, a lot of people, watched the women at lsu take on the university of iowa hawkeye's. that was the second-highest audience for any basketball game aired on espn in more than a decade. it was also one of the most viewed games in any sport other than nfl football over the past year.

the stars of that game are celebrities in their own right. lsu star forward angel reese just announced her plans to enter the wnba draft with a fashion shoot and interview in vogue. caitlin clark is a national phenomenon after becoming the top scoring player in ncaa basketball history, male or female. or dynamic talent is bringing all sorts of new attention to the women's teams, even transcending into popular culture with a multitude of sponsorship deals. so, as the final four march madness games begin tonight, if anyone is still questioning the appeal of women's sports, or the marketability of female athletes, hopefully this is a bit of a wake-up call of just how outdated those views are. up next, why president biden could be looking at this guy, surprise, for a road map to retaining the presidency. stay tuned.

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back in 2004, george w. bush was running for re- election, and he needed to

motivate not just his base but independent voters who might be his way. he looked to get an edge in key swing states by putting a key cultural issue at the time on the ballot. bans on same-sex marriage. hard to imagine, this was only 20 years ago. i remember quite well, because i worked on the other campaign, the one that lost. in part, as a result of this strategy. that was the george w. bush playbook, 20 years ago, and the reporting from nbc news underscores how president biden is taking a page from that playbook. sources say the goal this time around is to register and turn out americans who are passionate about abortion rights and reap the rewards in presidential and congressional races. support for predicting abortion rights has already paid off for democrats in congressional and special elections since roe v. wade was overturned two years ago. even some of the strategists who played a role in the 2004 campaign are taking notice of the similarities. like sarah fagan, a senior strategist on the 2004 bush campaign, who said biden might

see of your benefit from abortion then pushed it from marriage, also telling nbc news, people who don't let the candidates or aren't motivated by the candidates to get motivated by these specific issues. the senior national political reporter for nbc news who wrote that piece, cornell is a veteran democratic political strategist and pollster, and they join me now onset. let me start with you, given how energized the democrats have been around abortion rights and access and special elections, and races back to 2022, it seems like a no- brainer to me. but, break down for me where the biden team and others feel this is going to have the biggest impact, which states. >> the parallels are really strong, if you look back, opposition to same-sex marriage that year was over 60% around the country. it's amazing how things have changed. >> it's an important statistic for people to remember what it looked like. >> today, support for abortion rights is the same, over 60%. you take the passion for that, and it does two things.

it mobilizes a set of voters who might not be too excited about president biden, but who are very excited about protecting their own reproductive rights, there will be a lot of them that the campaign has to turn out. joe biden does have a base problem, cornell has a series about what that is, but the numbers are what they are, and this certainly helps. there's the persuasion question as well in 2004, the bush campaign realized that there were a lot of white rural road voters who, these are our people, they used the issue of same-sex marriage to highlight that contrast, and as you know, it helps them a lot. this time around there are romney clinton voters, socially liberal voters who might support republicans on other issues but are with the biden team on abortion rights. is up to the campaign to highlight that contrast and drive it. to your question, arizona is where i think it will have the most impact. very close estate decided by fewer than 11,000 votes. there's a restrictive abortion law, there, that could be jet fuel, and nevada was huge in 2022, could be big again. >> it's interesting parallels, the 60%, i forgot how high that

was back in 2004. let me ask you, the question everybody asks, i'm going to ask you is, does this expand the states? the biden team, god bless them, are saying florida could be in play because of this, or is it about energizing people and getting them out in the six or seven actual swing states? >> i think it's both. if you look at michigan, where it was on the ballot, and in michigan we have some great statewide candidates in michigan last campaign, but michigan had the highest youth turnout of any place in the country. i love our statewide candidates in michigan, i don't think we can say that they were entirely the reason for such youth turnout, strong vote among the youth vote. to your point, where is biden doing his support, his performance lagging? his performance is lagging most what it needs to be from 2020 among younger voters. when you talk about younger voters you're talking about a

diverse generation of voters, millennial and gen zer are the most diverse generation of americans ever. that's where he's most, this is where we've seen an issue to have the ability and mobilize the obama ability, to your point about florida, let's talk about florida. >> there's also marijuana legalization, there's a few motivators. >> let's talk about florida. the last time we were winning florida in 2012, seniors made up about 25, 24% of the electorate in florida. in 2020, seniors made up 22%. to my point about michigan, highest youth turnout anywhere in the country, if we can get the same generate the same sort of energy mobilization of young voters in florida as we saw happen in michigan, it does give us a chance at florida. even when we were winning florida in 08 and 12, it wasn't like we were winning by huge

margins, obama, we were taking it, it was never, never a blue state. this gives us as good a chance at florida as we've seen since 2012. >> you're going to make a lot of people watching happy that you said that. let me ask you about down ballot races. you talk about this in your piece. where are the house races, senate races where this could be a factor? >> it's extremely important, there's so much focus on the presidential race but this could matter up and down the ticket, if you mobilize a voter who cares about abortion rights, they're more likely than not going to pull levers for the dems, so arizona, nevada, which i mentioned, key senate races could decide control of the chamber. montana, joe biden isn't going to in montana but jon tester, the democratic senator is fighting for his political life, this is the issue that could help him. there's others that i listed, maryland.'s won't be that competitive in the end but got governor larry hogan, moderate republican jumped in, could make democrats sweat a little bit, the existence of an abortion measure will help the democratic candidate who faces

him. house races in nevada, colorado, maybe missouri and arkansas, though that's difficult to see, there are efforts around the country signature gathering efforts to get this. >> are there others you would add? >> i was going to say, what we're seeing in data is it is still immobilizing and motivating issue for voters. we saw what it helped us do in the last midterm, i've done a lot of pulling over the last month, there is still not a better argument for hitting republicans than on choice. >> on abortion rights. >> it's still the top, it doesn't show up as the top, the number one issue choice on a forced choice issue but is immobilizing and is a hit on the republicans, there is still not a better hit on the republicans in battleground districts than abortion. >> more than democracy. >> actually, what smart campaigns do is hooking democracy up to choice, because

frankly, it's about taking away freedoms and rights, and that's a conversation about democracy. >> it's up to the campaign also to drive this contrast. there have been a lot of focus groups where you ask swing voters and they can't bring themselves to believe that donald trump legitimately cares about this issue personally. on the other hand, he literally built the supreme court. those justices were all pivotal to that. >> i'm betting there's going to be some ad money spent on that one. >> guarantee it. >> thank you so much, excellent report, people should read it, i'll tweet so people see it as well. that does it for me tonight, but i'll be back as my usual on sundays, and on monday shows, don't worry, chris hayes returns from time off on tuesday, after taking a break well-deserved. alex wagner tonight starts right now. >> your back, but we like the friday jen. we love, a periodic parachuting in a jen psaki on fridays,

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