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welcome in to "the sunday show", i am jonathan capehart, and we are following breaking news out of iran. earlier today, helicopter carrying the iranian president crash landed in a mountainous region in the country's northwest, near the border with azerbaijan. iran's foreign minister and other state officials were also on board. according to iranian state media reports, rescuers have had a hard time reaching the crash site due to poor weather and heavy fog in the area. at this hour, there's no word on the president's condition. rescuers have reportedly pinpointed the location of the downed chopper and made contact with two of the passengers. joining me now is nbc news correspondent, josh letterman, who is following developments on the story, live in london. what's the latest on the rescue effort? >> reporter: well, it is the early hours of the morning in

iran, and jonathan, it's been nearly 12 hours since we believe that plane went down and we still do not know the fate of the helicopter, the president, or the foreign minister who was also on board as they were returning from a visit near the border with azerbaijan. two who were on the helicopter have made contact with the rescue authorities, according to iran's foreign executive vice minister who has not actually's dead what was learned from those individuals about the fate of the people who were on board. we know dozens of search and rescue teams are looking for helicopters. we learned recently that they have pinpointed the location despite the intense fog and bad weather, which was cited as a key reason for the helicopter going down and has been complicating search and rescue effort over the past few hours. >> to emphasize a point you made

about it being the middle of the night, it is 1:32 a.m. in iran, right now. what has been the reaction from the iranian government and the international community to what is happening? >> the iranian government has urged everybody to pray for the foreign minister, for the president, and others on board. that is certainly a cause for concern. we heard for the supreme leader, the key decision-maker in iran, who said that while he does want people to pray for their safe return, he is urging calm and telling everybody that no matter what happens, the work of iran's government will continue unabated. we are hearing from other governments as well, including putin is russia, which is saying that russia is sending planes, helicopters, and search and rescue individuals to help with the effort in iran. of course, russia and iran are close partners and

collaborated, supplying weapons for the war in ukraine. we've heard from senate democratic leader, chuck schumer, who says he was briefed by intelligence officials in the u.s. and so far, he says there are no signs of foul play, simply bad weather, that led to an unfortunate incident. >> josh letterman, live from london, thank you for joining us . let's turn to the executive vice president of the quincy institute and author of the book, "losing an enemy, obama, iran, and the triumph of the msc." great to see you. there is a lot we don't know. what would happen next, if iranian authorities were to announce that the president died in that crash? >> if they announce that tomorrow that he actually has been killed in the crash and the vice president, the first vice president, would take over, but only in the interim because

they will hold elections. it's quite a challenge for the government. it's very unpopular. participation in elections have dropped dramatically in the last couple years. they were parliamentary a week or so ago and in thailand, 7% participated. the population has lost faith that change can come from the ballot boxes as long as hardliners do not allow candidates that are not in line with hardliners to be able to stand. it is a very challenging task when it comes to holding elections that will have the population participating. >> i am wondering, in the power structure of iran, who actually runs the country? is it the president, or is it the supreme leader who has been in place since 1989? >> so, ultimately, the power really lies with the supreme leader.

the supreme leader is not supreme in the sense that he can overrule everyone else in the system. others have powers, as well, but the presidency, under normal circumstances, is in a powerful position. he has not really made his hallmark and is largely because it's not clear to what extent he is providing his own line. the reason, nevertheless, this will be impactful is this -- precisely because of the coming elections, as well as the fact that he was a candidate, even a leading candidate, to take over for the current supreme leader when he dies which will likely happen in the next couple years. that's an undercurrent of this. >> what is the president's relationship like with the west? the united states, in particular. >> well, under his presidency,

with a large conservative grouping he represents, they've essentially given up on the idea that the west is willing to have a sustained relationship with iran. you remember donald trump throughout an agreement that the iranians were leading up to. instead, they are shifting their focus toward russia, china, the global south and morris importantly, their neighbors. they are focusing on improving the relationship in their immediate neighborhood, while d prioritizing the united states. >> i one more question. we still don't know the fate of the president, that if he were declared dead, what impact might that have on tensions in the middle east? >> well, one of the things that i think would probably worry

folks of the white house right now, is there's no love lost for the president, i'm sure, but if this leads to a debilitating crisis in the iranian region, it could have a negative spill over to the united states because i ran has held back some of the groups that they support, civilian militias. there's been a bit of a truce in which those groups have stopped attacking u.s. troops in the region. if there's crisis in the iranian regime, perhaps the control of these groups will suffer, control will deteriorate, and we may be renewed attacks against u.s. troops in the region and that would be very negative. >> thank you for joining us on "the sunday show" , and for giving us the perimeter on the iranian government structure and its role in the region. thank you.

we will continue to monitor the helicopter surgeon iran and bring you any updates when we get them. coming up, maga threats, mike johnson is as dangerous to democracy as donald trump and i will talk about why, with becca ballin, member of the house budget and judiciary committees paid reaction to president biden speech and morehouse college. what he said and how the campus reacted at a time of pro- palestinian protest on campuses nationwide. don't go anywhere. you are watching "the sunday show". ow". what causes a curve down there?

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good evening. we, never with breaking news from the middle east this hour. iranian state media reporting no signs of life in a helicopter crash to the border with azerbaijan. the country's president was believed to be on board along with iran foreign minister and others as well. 40 rescue crews are deployed at

this hour, including drones and search dogs. bad weather and heavy fog has made this mission challenging for rescuers trying to reach this crash site. according to the red crescent, searchers walked to the helicopter from about two lou -- two kilometers away. iran's state media is reporting that officials were returning from the azerbaijan border, 375 miles northwest of tehran. the president was inaugurating a dam with azerbaijan's president. the official instagram account has now asked iranians to pray for him and his delegation. iran's state tv, as well, is continuously playing prayers as we monitor. chuck schumer is saying intelligence authorities informed him there was "no evidence of foul play in this crash," adding that it looks

like an accident but is being fully investigated. state tv is saying there are no signs of life seen at the wreckage. let's go to chief international correspondent, keir simmons, who is in the region. what else do we know? it looks like we will get to keir simmons a little bit. claudio, what are you learning at the moment in terms of the latest as we just get the news in, and the details are not altogether clear. >> that's right. we are hearing and learning that iranian state media, one indication that he might have been considered deceased in the helicopter crash. our producers say the main estate media channel is all

wearing black which could mean that they are in morning in anticipation of the announcement but we are still in the realm of speculation. what we know so far is that on sunday he was on board with that helicopter, flying back from toronto after inaugurating a dam with the president of azerbaijan when all of a sudden, the helicopter was forced to do a crash landing , and as you mentioned, a massive search and rescue operation was launched with 40 rescue teams using drones and search dogs, ambulances, heading for the scene. we saw videos of the search and rescue operation, with dense fog which

could of course, be one of the factors that played in that crash landing. there is also speculation about the condition of the helicopter. we do know that i ran has fairly old helicopters dating back as far as 1979 because of sanctions imposed on iran in the last few years preventing them from buying new helicopters but we don't know yet what caused the crash. as you mentioned in the last hour, state media reports the location of the crash has been identified and that there was no sign of life, but we are still waiting for an amount meant, just to give you a sense of what will happen if it's confirmed. most likely, is vice president will take immediately his there will be new

presidential elections but a new president will have to be elected within 50 days. >> standby. let's go to richard engel. we don't have confirmation from ira padilla that the president of iran is dead or necessarily at that location. there's no sign of life. what are we hearing? >> when they say no sign of life, it seems like we are waiting for official confirmation. we can speculate endlessly about what that means, whether they are going to find him tossed from a helicopter, or wandering in the woods, but it seems they are preparing to imminently announce that he did not survive. so assuming for a second that that's what we are talking about , the death of the iranian president in a helicopter, i'm also hearing that the cause is

believed to be foul weather, not foul play, that the u.s. military was not involved in the suspicion, israel was not involved either, it was foul weather. now, what does this do next, assuming that there are no signs of life, the anchor is dressed in black? we could be hearing an official announcement. assume that he has been killed. he's been in power nearly three years. what does this do for the country? the president is a unique role, but he's not the most important person in iran. he manages day-to-day affairs of the country, he runs the government, but it's the supreme leader in iran that makes all the major decisions. he's a cleric, i ran since 1979 has been run by islamic clerics

made the supreme leader is the overall leader of the government, deciding ultimately , all matters, military, all matters religious, all matters of policy. he would have overseen, for example, iran's attack last month on israel, a response to israeli attacks on a diplomatic facility in syria, an unprecedented move with drones and ballistic missiles fired at israel. this was an enormously tense moment in jerusalem. everyone thought that this would potentially be the start of regional war. only the supreme leader would have the power to authorize something like this and the reason i mention it is that he was the leading candidate to be the next supreme leader. the current supreme leader is 85 years old, not particularly robust even at 85 and we are in

a transition phase in iran. this will undoubtedly raise succession issues. what happens immediately to the president, the vice president is supposed to step in. it's about 50 days until they hold new elections, so that's all possible. the vice president will sit in, they will be able to find a new president, but he and very few other names were mentioned as potential successors to the supreme leader. only two names are really ever talked about as possible successors. it's not an open system, there are a lot of closed-door meetings. this happens very much in the shadows and the only two people you ever hear about, the first contender, and the supreme

leader's own son. those really are, to my understanding, as u.s. intelligence believes this analysis that these are really the only names that have been put forward in a serious way. there have always been issues with the supreme leader's son, because he is his son and now, i think we can say the presumed death of the president, we are still awaiting confirmation, but things don't look good and appears that we are heading in that path which makes this issue much more complicated and causes tremendous problems for the cleric rule in this country , because can a regime that came to power in 1979 to

overthrow a hereditary monarchy now come in and oversee the transfer of power? it would look suspicious. it would be potentially unwelcome by many iranians and many in the regime self. according to analysts i've been speaking to following this issue for many years, it seems that we would likely see over time, the emergence of a different cadre of leaders, people from security services, names that are potentially unknown. we will see how that develops over the course of the next probably several months, as the shock to not only the rule of the country, the day-to- day rule of the country, they'll be able to manage, but as the shock to secession has

to be settled. in terms of policy, i do not expect that policy will change much. iran's fundamental goals, particularly external goals, are unlikely to change. the group of people who are in the leadership, the people designed to elect the new leaders are all hardliners. they have a similar policy and they have the same three goals that iran has had for the last several decades. those have been more and more refined over the next -- last several years and those would be to eliminate israel from the region, to push u.s. troops from the middle east, and would generally topple the american world order,

including china, russia, anyone who shares a similar agenda. i think that those three main points of direction, or points of the policy of the government will not change, even with a new president. >> richard, i will bring in our chief international correspondent, keir simmons to join the conversation. what we are hearing earlier is that the final update will be announced in a few minutes from iran's state tv. the latest we have is no sign of life, the fear that iran's president was indeed on a helicopter that was or is at that crash site where rescuers are at the moment. what else are we hearing? >> the news from the crash site, i think, means we have to

presume the president has died. his foreign minister has died, and other members. history can turn on the details which shows the dense fog. will be seen, around the world, the primary cause, that people will go to first. that would be important. the

circumstances in which this happened, for 15 hours, its mountainous with azerbaijan. it's not a place where you would want to be flying a helicopter because there would be questions there. we have not had any official announcement, yes -- yet. what is said by orion, -- iran. of course, we live in this area where they can jump. what is said in the next 24 hours, 48 hours, will be important because that plays out, now, as we add instability to a region that has been

reaching for some kind of possibility and struggling, frankly, because of october 7th and the war in gaza. the many in the west, in washington, jake sullivan was just in the region, trying to build a plan for stability. they specifically left. it's a way that doesn't destabilize this. >> for those who are watching, from sunday evening, we saw the thickness of the fog in the area. for lack of a better analysis, it's pea soup, perhaps even thicker. i ran semi-official news agencies are saying the

presidents convoy have three helicopters. one of the situations where the details of the weather become important. can you remind us of the details of that context of what we understand when this helicopter went down? >> the president was in an area that is mountainous and was there to inaugurate the dam. you got the pictures that you are seeing, over the nightly news. it is a region that is mountainous. that's the place that you would potentially go. they were commissioning, so yes. it's difficult, as you mentioned , to land safely. talk about black swan events,

as an example because the coincidence, as it appeared at this point, it appears to be the one that has crashed. it's hardly unpredictable and iranian officials were talking about that hard landing with state media describing that in the early hours, talking about landings for the helicopter, and it took many hours for iranian rescuers to reach the crash site. it's only now 8:30 in the morning. we had a few hours of daylight, anywhere in the world, with rescue

operations hampered. they have to search through the wreckage and reach those conclusions and then we will hear an announcement by the iranians, as richard was saying. >> for those just joining us, the breaking news that we are covering this hour is that iran's state tv is saying they believe that iran's president, and his helicopter, crashed and there is no sign of life. we expect a final statement of what they believe to be the outcome, the conclusion of the rescue crews, that have arrived in the area, over to richard engel, if you are still with us. as you have reported in the

region over the years, the details for the moment, and of course, the very state of the aviation equipment, you have a leader, the president of this country, if this is correct, a convoy of three helicopters. what is the state of their equipment when talking about aviation from what you understand? the >> well, in general, the economy functions poorly because of sanctions. traditionally, aircraft in that country had been in a poor state of repair because it has been difficult to import parts, but at the same time, iran has been able to evade sanctions quite well as a major producer of drones. it's impossible to speculate.

if you've been on the plane, there are all planes. it's generally old, but it's not that iran is not linked. they've been having increasingly close ties. if they do have a shortage -- >> we just got confirmation, sorry to interrupt, we just got confirmation that according to iran's state tv, iran's president was killed in his helicopter crash, in a location in the north of iran, close to azerbaijan. again, to iran's state tv, just into nbc news, iran's president, according to iran's state, was

killed in a helicopter crash overnight. richard, it was, unfortunately, what you and keir simmons and claudio were saying. it was not looking good based on the information in the lead up to this announcement. as you were saying, what's next. >> we've now received this announcement that was expected to become in, when you have helicopters crash in dense fog and mountainous areas, the chances of survival are generally not good. he was traveling in a three helicopter convoy according to state television. his helicopter went down. there were initial it was a hard landing and a few minutes ago, there was a report that the crash site had been found with no sign of life and now this announced meant that he has

been killed. there are multiple questions about succession. the vice president is expected to step in and will oversee transition, had been bringing a hard-line country even further. they'd seen a crackdown. against protesters, many led by women. hold the streets, for months they ultimately lost that protest and now we are seeing a crackdown, over the last several weeks. the vice president is expected to take over. he is not a known figure, he is

not considered a player, he's much more of a placeholder. the iranian presidency, iranian politics take place in the shadows. the president is the face, running the government on a day- to-day basis but is the 85-year- old supreme leader, who runs the country and makes the ultimate decisions. he's 85 years old. we are in a transition phase already for the supreme leader. a new counsel, to select supreme leaders has already been picked and ebrahim raisi was the leading candidate to be the successor and for men in his 60s, this is a job generally for life. he would have been potentially very likely the next supreme leader of iran for decades to come. the fact that he's now been killed is a fork in the

road. who do they now have to become the supreme leader. it's a different background than ebrahim raisi . he is a cleric, he is a hardliner. iran's theocracy has been around since 1979. he is, in northern iran, coming from azerbaijan, back to iran.

there was this all-night search effort and many iranians did not believe we were waiting for this information and many believed they knew right away that he was dead because there were two other helicopters in the convoy. this is an overnight period, to try to answer some of these questions about succession, leadership, so i think that we are going to hear more and get more hints as the iranians make statements and put figures out so we do have to watch who is speaking, how long are they speaking, how are they dressed, as we try to understand this transition in iran. there's no anticipation, at least in the short or medium term that this will have an impact on iranian policy. iran's basic principles, which have been the bedrock of the

islamic revolutionary state has been three principles to expel the united states, from the middle east, to replace israel with palestine, and disrupt or overturn the general american lead order, and those core principles will likely remain and could in fact get more sharp , even harder line policies, depending on who emerges. in terms of cause, the only cause that i've been hearing, his foul weather, not foul play, but that doesn't mean that they believe that. it's a country that is operated in the

past. no indication that israel was involved, just talking about the perception in iranians minds , that they will think. >> chuck schumer also underlined what you are saying, richard, not foul play. foul weather. he said earlier today that they would continue to investigate the cause of this crash and again, irene -- iran's state tv announced iran's president has died in a helicopter crash. we just saw that with nbc news. we will pause for a special report. that evening. we have

breaking news out of the middle east. iran's atv just announced that the country's president was killed in a helicopter crash on sunday. the president was traveling back from a visit to the iranian border. the helicopter he was traveling in, in a crash landing, for hours, there were no survivors. bad weather is believed to have contributed. chuck schumer, earlier, saying intelligence authorities informed him that there is "no evidence of red -- foul play. " this comes during a volatile time, militant groups have attacked israel. the country's

supreme leader remains in control over iran and we will continue to follow the story again. according to iran's state tv, iran's president was killed in a helicopter crash. we will have more later. for now, richard lui, in new york. recovering breaking news, here on msnbc d. the latest news in the last 30 minutes is that iran's state tv announced that iran's president was killed in a helicopter crash. we received a note that there was no signs of life at the crash site in the northern parts of iran, close to the border with azerbaijan. with us discussing this latest breaking news, we have chief foreign correspondent richard engel, we have chief

international correspondent keir simmons as well. now as they look, they come to a number two spot. >> richard was describing how murky iranian politics can be. think about what we've seen in the past few years, the crackdown on protest over women's rights after the death of a young, 22-year-old woman. the saudis protest, and so much is happening since then, that we forget, i guess. that was such a significant time in iranian politics. those

protests were ruthless, by the iranian government. that government is now, as we speak, going to be in turmoil. they will have an impact on what happens next. the iranian leadership, and that may will -- may well be what happens. this is a risky enterprise, but who takes over and how do they

direct? that is what many are watching for. think about some of the things we've seen in the past month, since october 7th. you have that attack on a u.s. base, on the border with iran and syria. you had service members killed in that attack and the standoff with washington and tehran where it appeared that the iranians directed their proxy groups to stand down. that could be viewed as a strategic or tactical move by the iranians , in order to not escalate further confrontation in the

united states. iran is attempting, that was an example of that. will they be the same kind of leader? it's a new generation. does the removal, the disappearance, if you like, it was that power, that kind of thinking, no matter how the iranians describe what happened in this crash and what it might be, or what might not be, given that it was so clearly bad weather.

we talked about that earlier, it may well be that that is the cause. who is in charge, now? it will have implications for the region, a region reeling since october 7th, where we saw the biden administration national security adviser jake sullivan in the region, trying to reach for some kind of deal, trying to see if it still some impossibility. >> we are hitting the morning

hours, in europe, is there any response in? >> we haven't seen any responses, it 6:40. i think that leaders are just waking up to the news and they will respond in due time, probably in the next hour or two, following up on what richard was saying and what keir simmons was saying. they were pointing out the most important impacts, on the successor, with the supreme leader of iran. the immediate consequence of this death is the new presidential election that will probably take place. just to remind you, in 2021, when he

was elected, that was the lowest turnout in the history. a lot has happened, it would be very interesting to see the reaction. we don't know yet of course, from the vice president who will take his place, immediately. are they going to be moderate candidates? is the election going to be rigged? that another hardliner is going to take the place. ebrahim

raisi was the hardliner and was, prior to being elected president, head of the judiciary in iran and there is no doubt, that they would want someone who is in line with policies, rather than a complete change. all of these things are going to happen and it would be interesting to see how this plays out. >> to richard engel, as you are looking at the succession question at the moment and the pipeline, for those who might be tacticians versus state people, those who do very well, in international policy, working with other leaders, when you look at what we've had in the past in terms of

presidents from iran, and you look back to the last four, you have mohammed, mark mood, now, you have ebrahim raisi who again, just was killed in this helicopter crash. who do they have more of in the pipeline? the next level, the next round of leaders? >> it's likely that you will see the emergence of an unknown name. this is not someone from the security services, someone from intelligence, the guards, elections in iran are not free and open. the candidates are not free to choose themselves, they don't get to run, the candidates are selected ahead of time so that only certain individuals are allowed to run if they meet the

criteria bid that criteria is that they must be a hardliner. there are many different iranian presidents in the past, some have had more interest and engagement with the u.s., some less, but they both operated in a band with and have not deviated much. the trend has been for iran to be more hard-line, more anti- western, tighter ties to russia , closer economic ties to russia and china, as iran found itself, facing protest on the street and facing enormous inflation. the currency crisis in iran the last year has been very significant. there have been some new elections, as well.

the establishment will huddle together around the leader, and list new candidates, but the question is really what that new candidate does. will he just be running day-to- day affairs and keeping the lights on while they try to figure out the larger issue of succession? ebrahim raisi was the leading contender for taking this country forward for decades. now they have an immediate problem of managing a short transition and managing a longer transition. the people that i'm speaking to who are familiar with intelligence assessments believe that what we are going to see behind the scenes is this long-standing tension coming to the forefront between the clerical rule, the rule of people who wear

religious dress, like ebrahim raisi, who wear the turban and take their orders from god, iran's regime established a theocracy, ruled by clerics, using their religious wisdom, using their ability to commune in some cases with god, guiding the policies, and carried out to the government and defended by organizations like the revolutionary guard. it has been a theocratic rule, the revolutionary guard, they have increasingly been assuming powers. they are in many ways the real power players in iran. they could be nationalists,

they could pursue the same policies and generally do, as the government. will this transition to a more military dictatorship instead of up your theocracy? this does come at a weak moment for the theocratic rulers who have a working relationship and at times a relationship of a rivalry with the revolutionary guard. you see two tracks, the clerical rule, and ebrahim raisi was about to forgive that potentially , if he took power in a transition that was expected to happen soon. the ayatollah is 84 years old. do we see now in emergence of someone who comes out of the revolutionary guard, likely a hardliner because the pool of people who could emerge is limited and preselected? i

think that is something and i know is something that people who watch iran in the u.s. government and other governments are watching. is this now an opportunity for the revolutionary guard to us whom their control? does this become a revolutionary guard dictatorship with a cover of theocracy, or does it remain a theocracy in which the revolutionary guard enforced the rules and carried them out? who gets to be the ultimate, the leading force behind the scenes? >> keir simmons, a minute before we go to break. richard, underlining those who are not as familiar with iran's political system and the way it functions as a theocracy. the ayatollah remains in power and is the supreme leader and is at the top of the pyramid. for those who are less familiar , it might be seen as the

number two who has been lost, reporting that iran's president was killed in a helicopter crash. who are you watching? what do you watch for in terms of reaction in the region? >> as richard outlined, it's the unpredictability that is the grief point. we don't know which direction this will go. it could go in a dangerous direction and it may well as iran has, for many years. you cannot predict, they have indications that change the ark of iran's politics, potentially. as richard was describing. it's uncharted territory in a region where uncharted territory is familiar. we know there will be an election, we know there are

people who are more likely than others. that is the question that has been hanging over us for a long time. that question, now, is even larger for the region because as richard describes, whoever that person is will determine iran's policy and politics potentially for decades. >> as you are reporting with us, this morning, your time, as well as now eastern time here in the united dates, as we look at this challenge of instability, what is your perspective, what is your reporting? >> well, see, essentially, it certainly in the morning so we get to see the reaction from leaders across europe and

elsewhere in the world. certainly, they are all watching what is going to come next and who is going to be president next. will it be just a copycat of ebrahim raisi , put in by the supreme leader, despite, of course, the appearance of a national election in which the iranian people do have a choice, as richard was mentioning? the choice, not all candidates are allowed to run, even if there is a moderate candidate who diverges from the policies of ebrahim raisi and the hardliners, so will they be allowed to run? is this going to make any difference on iran's policy in the future? probably not. that is the speculation, but

certainly, it will wake iran up to the fact that it was not ready for a change at the top of the government. there was no political campaign , or idea of who is going to replace ebrahim raisi. he was only three years on the job and was elected in 2021, so it will be interested -- interesting to see the reaction among the iranian people they hope will change, from now on. >> thank you . please, stand by on this breaking news of iran's president killed in a helicopter crash. and a very good morning morning to