essentially, there is a ton of documents to suggest what is going on. he is trying to find out information. it all could go away in one week. just give information. he gives really bad advice. that is not what happened. it didn't go away. >> thank you very much. we kept talking during the commercial break. we will try to post about online. the 11th hour starts now. tonight, dramatic moments in the criminal trial. why the judge cleared the courtroom during a clash. what it means in a region

already on edge. why we shouldn't believe every number when it comes to joe biden and donald trump. that evening, we are 169 days from the election. today, new york rested its case in the first criminal trial, i got to be in the courthouse as michael cohen's marathon testimony ended and trump's team began putting on its case. >> reporter: former president trump's team launching a fiery start to the case, taking direct aim at the credibility of michael cohen. calling robert costello, an attorney for rudy giuliani, who advised cohen.

he was described as manic. cohen is implicating mr. trump and an alleged crime. costello testified that cohen told him, i don't have anything on donald trump. directly refuting the testimony that he was directed to pay off stormy daniels. michael cohen said numerous times president trump knew nothing about it and he did it on his own. the judge repeatedly sustaining objections leading to a heated scolding. the judge at one point saying are you staring me down q >> he had stolen tens of thousands of dollars. today admitting he duped his boss into reimbursing more money.

he gave a tech company $20,000 in a brown paper bag and pocketed the rest. tens of thousands of dollars more. todd lamb saying you stole from the organization. later, he said he stole the money because we had not received a large enough bonus. the defense also suggesting cohen profited in other ways. pointing to the fact that he raked in over $4 million in consulting agreements while also serving as personal attorney is the defense that cohen is cashing in as a critic , making over $3 million on two books. he said he is considering a tv show in the third book. the defense called the motivation to lie. asking do you have financial interest in the outcome of the

case? he said yes sir. though he insisted he would make more if donald trump was acquitted. his credibility is critical as he is the only witness that testified the former president had advanced knowledge of the plan. >> there are no crimes and we did nothing long. i want to get back to campaigning. appointment cohen in exchange said you have any doubt that he gave you the final signoff for you went to the bank. replied no doubt. >> the trial will resume tomorrow. one thing i took away, it was a reminder. when you were sitting up close and personal, most real-world trials are long and tedious field with document details and

timeline verifications. these jurors do not have an easy job. rarely does it look like a few good men, perry mason or wrap up like it's view. it is long, complicated and hard. with that, let's get smarter. you were sitting right in front of me today, taking better notes that i was. what was your big takeaway? >> cohen testified that in 2018 he said he didn't think the stormy daniels payment amounted to campaign contributions or expenses.

today he walked back and said in 2018-knew full well. that was important. he has now made two links to trumpet. he said trumpeted about the falsification today he linkedin to the campaign contributions violation. that is the only time that has come out. despite what you think about his credibility, that was important. >> a huge important moment for hugo. i kept thinking about the jury. some of them were rubbing their eyes and appearing restless. how hard is it for them. this hugely important point. rv even getting it a mess the amount of details and information and bickering connect >> many people including myself

said there is diminishing return if you keep going out something that doesn't need that attention. at some point, you lose the jury . on top of it, if you become combative and aggressive, that makes matters worse. there is one point blanche was asking a question and ultimately a question that sank his entire cross-examination. you just have to let it go. >> babying blanche? >> yes. >> the judge is trying to make this process is clean and fair as possible. he made the decision that closing arguments would be after the long weekend. what is your take, thinking about the jury.

or fax start to fade. >> i think the judge is trying to make sure the jury hears both arguments and close proximity. he wants to avoid having the prosecution close on thursday and then a day off friday and monday and then not until tuesday that they hear the defense case mma deliberate. it may be less efficient than otherwise, it may add an extra day. the thought is let's put the arguments together so the jury can access them at the same time. it is also a good move to get the holiday weekend behind us so they are not trying to race.

they often come back on friday so they don't come back after the weekend. pricing at the outset we are taking the weekend off and then we are all coming back. the judge has made it clear. i want to talk about language reheard today around trumps businesses. phrases like friends in high places, we are going to stay strong who was going down? ideas that someone is going to get grossed out or a salary employee getting a retainer. the idea not to use email or text or sending checks to a bodyguard. none of the things i laid out how good honest businesses operate. yet donald trump ran in 2016 and 2020 and still today claims to be a ceo president of a business that is clearly not on the up and up.

>> it evokes some mafia kind of organization. you can't get away from that. this is been the theme all the way through the trial. everyone involved in the transactions. even today, bob costello came across as a guide trying to cover it up. when you think of it like that, it suggests that he had all of these guys to clean up what he knew was wrong doing. if that is the idea, then you have already done 50% of the job. >> but he didn't sign his name and surrounded himself with hitmen. >> i would think that even further.

as a prosecution we don't like michael cohen. who you going to get, he is henry hill or sammy the bull. that is what you want to do. you don't want them to date your daughter mary her sister. we are here about him telling what happened and telling it truthfully knowing full well, he was going to be ridiculed and torn down. >> do you think the prosecution made the case? >> the relevant decision-maker is the jury who has been in court every day listening to every word of testimony in reviewing every exhibit. it is difficult to predict what the jury will do.

if you look at the task, proving that donald trump caused the falsification of records, campaign finance violations. the pieces are there. they brought in evidence well beyond that testimony. my guess, the jury will say, let's look at this case and see if it makes sense. they have the financial records and david explaining what the conspiracy was about . they have hope hicks involved. i think the case has been made. the question will be whether the jury sees it that way or whether the government has met its burden. >> you keep saying that the court and the surrounding area is locked down so tight that soup orders who want to be there

can't get near the neighborhood. we know that is a lie. i want to play some of that claim side-by-side with the video of what it looks like outside. >> outside looks like fort knox. there are more police than i've seen anywhere. there is not a civilian within three blocks. >> we were there. there are plenty of people milling about. people are eating lunch, there were barricades. the press is there. there are lines of people waiting to go in and then a wide-open park there were protesters and anti-protesters and anyone can show up. there was a handful of people

that >> in the morning, it became a bit of a fight between single protesters that were trying to carve out the territory. than one was singing in the other had a big sign. then these people were fighting amongst themselves over who should have more territory. the idea that people that cannot protest, part of the reason, is trump has personally offended that supporters have not come to new york to protest. >> the crowds are not the only thing he is misrepresenting. it is things that are more dangerous. they keep saying he wants to testify but they won't let him. give me a break.

donald trump doesn't listen to his attorneys. the court isn't preventing him from testifying. i guarantee by the weekend, isn't it too bad he didn't get to make his case. this misrepresentation of facts. >> he is perpetrating a fraud. fortunately, the job is not to fight what happens out side, they are going to stick to that indictment, it is not about michael cohen or the bogus spewing from the mouth of donald trump. at the end of the day, they want to look at that and say we won. not because of what he misrepresented because he doesn't care about anything but himself.

he can testify and speak about the case. donald trump is totally about donald trump. he doesn't have the chutzpah to get in front of that and use his mouth and talk to the jury. >> i want to talk about context. i'm not condoning actions but there are context. foxes freaking out over the reservation that cowan still -- cohen stole 30 grams . donald trump is famous for not paying people that work for him. his comptroller testified that donald trump told him to never pay full price. wait until they keep coming after you. don't we have to put it into context?

>> that will be the strategy that the prosecution uses. this wasn't a bombshell. this fact came out in the direct examination. the idea that it was discovered today is not accurate. there are commentators suggesting it was a bombshell. i have seen defense attorneys do this really act like they are stunned and discovered something amazing. the jury knows better. when i expect to hear is things like is michael:-- michael a rat? you bet he is.

donald trump picked him. he sent to negotiate these contracts. if you don't like him, you don't have to. what matters is the fact that you heard in court. does the story make common sense and line up with the evidence. that is what they have to find that he can do. thank you all so much. before we go to break, it is time to check in with our -- . media stock finish the day down more than $2.5. that is 5%. it is pennies. the company finally reported earnings today and guess what we learned, will revenue, they brought in $770,000. they had a loss of $300 million.

so much for the idea that the markets are efficient. the stock is trading at $48 a share. the fact that it didn't tank to the bottom, that says something. when we come back, some recent polls look bad. my next guests will explain why the polls don't paint full picture or even an accurate one. ate one.

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last week a poll found trump leading by a five out of six battleground states. those numbers got a lot of attention. i have two guests with serious questions. he said he laughed when he read the result from the bow to. -- from nevada. and how biden could be 24 points ahead in the wisconsin vote but 20 points behind in michigan. there are more questions and i have good news, they are both here. larry, walk us through this.

when these polls come out, people immediately react. the polls carried the narrative for a week or a week and a half and not enough people are saying hold on, how are they conduct did? you said you laughed. >> the results are absurd. that is always a good test. i know john looked at this too. it is true with young people and elderly voters and minorities. 23% of blacks voting for trump, get real. here is the problem. there will always be polls taken . it is click bait. the organizations make lot of money. it gets lots of attention.

i personally saw 100 references to this in print and on tv panels. somehow the narrative changed overnight from this is very close and why it will just be a handful of votes to biden is losing. what can he do to turn it around? nothing major changed. the election is in october and november. just have to remember something, i'm old enough to remember when senator jean mccarthy said the press is like a bunch of black birds on a telephone pole. when month one moves they all move in when one comes back welcome back. safety in numbers but there is a lot of groupthink. i would love if they mixed it up more. apparently they can't argue with numbers published by the

new york times. john, what makes you doubt this? >> in terms of the internals. when something doesn't make sense it gives me pause to step back and compare these numbers time after time consistently. not just did receive 51 point differences between michigan and wisconsin, we saw similar differences among younger people in arizona and nevada. i spend a lot of time talking with younger people and older people. i don't see that variance. we have to remember, polling is much more than averaging horserace is. it is more than informing betting markets. doing the job well means informing democracy. giving voice to the people.

my concern, when we have inconsistency among younger folks and hispanics. that is not doing our job in terms of public opinion research. that is the question that is so important. >> you wrote, if i misrepresent an x-ray or an mri it doesn't mean imaging is broken it means i don't know what i am doing. >> there is an industry, people on social media, who are analytics experts. they believe by averaging horserace is they can interpret public opinion. they then say public opinion is broken. what i am saying, i know how to fix it. the way in which you fix it is to develop samples that are representative of all of the subjects that make up the

electorate. i am not going to look at x- rays and say or have an opinion and say if i miss one, the imagery is broken. i am not a physician. just like most people on twitter are not pollsters. and is about pulling samples and listening to people and making sure you have a consistent voice. >> the polls are not the only way we hear from voters. do we focus too much on the polls? >> absolutely. i agree with the way john phrased his concern. i would have something broader. john mentioned democracy. that is what worries me. all of this money and energy devoted to the polls where the numbers will change many times between now and the election, instead of having a front-page

article on what trump said over the weekend about his third term . the constitution doesn't permit that. fdr had four terms. a few hours ago, trump posted on social media articles that talked about the third reich this is significant. listen to him. he is telling us what he is and what he wants to do. that should be the front-page article. not what the polls showed overnight in nevada or wisconsin which may or may not be accurate or may or may not even hold up for three days. >> we are going to give you the final word. larry, congratulations to the

university of virginia lacrosse team. they had a huge win over the weekend. when we come back, as trump fights, he is already saying he wants a third. he has a big idea of how to its tend to stay at the white house. reminder he didn't win a second term. he has lasted one so far. far.

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the former president returned to the campaign trail with a speech at the nra annual convention where he openly used about serving three terms as president. >> he was four term. are we going to be considered preterm or to term. >> who doesn't think of fdr when they look at donald trump. he also pledged to roll back on safety provisions. hugely popular once. here to discuss, communications director for president obama. this is not the first time that donald trump has brought up this notion of a third term.

last month he also told time magazine it wasn't a consideration. what should we believe? >> i think he is trying to be cute. it is not funny. we have been down this road. it is worth saying, there was a big time in the lead up to the election. there were many of us and we should be concerned about the fact that he won't say he is going to accept the results if he loses and then he did these little games. maybe i will accept. we all saw where that led. people bought into his life.

he might have been tongue-in- cheek but they took it seriously and ended up storming the capitol as a result. i think that is pretty much what is going on. he thinks he is in on a big joke but it's really serious. >> guess you might not accept results? marco rubio. >> will you accept the election results no matter what happens? >> no matter what happens, no. if it's unfair. >> no matter who wins? >> you are asking the wrong person. the democrats have opposed every victory since 2000. >> no democrat has refused to concede. >> i will tell you, romney tried to make that argument like democrats haven't accepted results. i said i am sorry, when? >> hillary conceded on election night. she gave a concession speech the next day.

no democrats were organizing efforts to decertify votes and overturn the election. what is disturbing is watching marco rubio. you know he practiced for this moment. he wanted to make sure he had all the examples of what jim clyburn stood up to her or object to something in 2004 election to impress donald trump. he wants to be the running mate. i could normally understand why people are doing what they're doing but why he would want to be the running mate and maybe be vice president? i can't fathom. >> he wants to be next to the big man. the marco is donald trump's nickname for him, not mine. something i know, your attention this weekend, in the speech at the nla donald trump said he wants to roll back a

number of gun provisions that were put in place during the biden administration. hugely popular ones. >> this is bad politics and bad policy together. if anything the bipartisan bill didn't go far enough. it was good but they achieved some things people were trying to do. the loophole was closed. there was a lot of question after columbine. it takes a long time. that is a good accomplishment. it wasn't like he passed a gun grabbing bill, these are popular, bipartisan 80 and 90% issues. things making sure it is harder for kids under 21 to get a gun. making it easier to put criminals in jail. these are the things that

everybody is for except for extreme gun rights wackos. donald trump wants to repeal all of that. it is horrible politics. it is bad policy. trump has tried to play both ways. i think it is a big vulnerability but on abortion and gun rights and immigration. he is all in with the most extreme. >> he is holding a rally this week in the bronx. instead of the state that he actually has a chance of winning. is that proof that campaigning isn't about campaigning, it is about fundraising. what is this point? >> he is distracted. he is focused on a new york trial. does he think that going to the bronx might somehow impact the jury if the jury sees big

support? i am not sure. >> he can get to pa and in our. >> a couple of weeks ago he went to the jersey shore. or he could go to philadelphia. it is not good. depending on how it goes, it could come back with compelling photos and images. it feels more like the trial and raising money than campaigning. >> you heard that conversation, what is your big. >> i hope they are right. i agreed with the point about how the media should care more about democracy. i get a little bit ptsd. when i was on the other side, i

was at the rnc and pretty much everybody around me was saying the polls are skewed, polls are bad. i was saying i don't think so, i think they are right and we should take them seriously. we saw the result. president obama won. maybe they are wrong but every poll of georgia, pennsylvania and arizona has had donald trump ahead. that is alarming. we should take that very seriously, even if the criticism is accurate. >> thank you both for joining. when we return, the iran president is killed in a helicopter crash. what that means for a country in the region in turmoil. in tu

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and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled... which is pretty un-boring if you think about it. funeral preparations are underway for president ebrahim raisi. he died in an accidental helicopter crash. >> reporter: the wreckage of the crash that killed iran's president and foreign minister in a region already -- by instability. tv crews reaching the scene today. the hard-line leader dead suddenly and it seems by accident.

today in the streets of tehran, men openly wept seen as the potential successor to be agents of team leader. at some embassies, opponents celebrated. the u.s. said there are no signs of outside interference the government reached out for help. >> for logistical reasons we were able to provide that. >> described as a friend. hamas sending sympathy since the attacks, proxies have launched multiple offensives. tonight, and advisor telling nbc not to expect policy changes. >> when we are talking about the general direction, goes beyond the individual.

>> including a wave of demonstrations. >> some of the worst abuses kurd -- occurred during his tenure. that said, we regret any loss of life. >> the former deputy security advisor for president obama. this is already a tense moment. how concerned are you that could -- it could destabilize. >> i wouldn't expect to see major shifts in policy out of iran. he was a hardliner and he will be replaced by a vice president but the hardliner. the supreme leader calls the shots. he is very much a hardliner. i think they will likely stay in that same direction. the questions have more to do with the future politics.

not only who the next president is but who is the next supreme leader. that is when you could have instability of different factions jockey for that ultimate power given that he is 85 years old. >> he was known for brutal crack downs against his opposition. does the death mean anything different for the people or know based on what you laid out. >> in the short term, you are right. he has long been a part of the superstructure, even getting back to his time as a judicial official. he always has been a hardliner. the people have been looking at a situation in which a lot of dollars are spent on these conflicts. they have economic problems. there is enormous frustration with the repression of dissent and treatment of women and

girls. this is simmering under the surface of iranian politics. as the leak of folder and out of touch, you have a potential for a reemergence of protest and instability and even infighting. >> he is a hardliner and no friend of ours. today, the state department sent condolences to iran. >> that is a common courtesy. if you have head of state die in the circumstances. is away for someone that's been in government and dealt with this relationship. it is a way of keeping the most basic form of lines of communication open.

we don't have an embassy there and don't have a lot of contact. we need diplomatic contact sometimes. you have to see that in this context. it is also way of signaling, we disagree about just about everything. we have a baseline of communication that we need to use. before we go, the international criminal court recommended lawrence for the leader of israel and hamas leaders. what is your thought? >> the icc has been doing this for some time. the lead prosecutor has a warning that something was coming. we have seen over the course of the seven months, the icj process. in this assignment when you have conflict with

enormous suffering and civilian harm on both sides, there will be a long legal tail. it will not be resolved. the judge could issue the warrants. it is not like israel will cooperate. this will shatter hamas and -- . i am sure there will be a lot of contention. the icc, they conduct these investigations. the if you all the parties in the sense of their constituencies. >> do you think this will impact the next move. >> some people say that but the reality, is will he is dug into the strategy.

he didn't even change it when members of his own cabinet were saying they would potentially pull out. the icc adds to that. i'm sure what he will try to do is to rally people to the side. i am sure there is a lot of sympathy for the notion that official shouldn't be charged like this. at the end of the day i don't think that is the determining factor. the core question is gaza and what does the military objective. that is what the defense ministers asked for. the plan for the future administration. that will be the determining factor for. thank you so much. that will do it for us. rachel maddow is up next. you can listen to every episode

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thanks for joins us this hour. you know how sometimes i start the show with something weird and you don't know why i'm bringing it up but like maybe you trust me enough to stick with me through it? tonight is one of those nights. i fully concede this is going to start off seeming very, very much out of nowhere, but i swear it is on the day's news, and if you bear with me for just a second, i will make it make sense. okay, one of those nights,