ignited. the pentagon is confirming a report we did earlier that the u.s. military has been forced to suspend the delivery of aid into gaza by sea after the temporary pier 1 is damaged in bad weather. that is a major blow to the humanitarian effort at a time when the rafah crossing, the main lifeline for food and aid into gaza remains closed. an israeli official tells nbc news that israel has drawn up a new cease-fire proposal and presented that to the american mediators, but at this point hamas says they have not seen that proposal and there is no indication right now that these talks, stalled for so long, are going to lead to significant progress. back to you. >> raf sanchez, thank you. tonight on "all in" --

>> and the jurors have been sent to begin deliberations. >> the jury finally has the case. >> a former president now awaiting his fate in a criminal trial. >> tonight, the testimony the jury wants to hear from david pecker and michael cohen. why even getting to this point is a positive sign for the rule of law. >> it will be talked about in the history books. >> then, justice samuel alito warms up the bus. >> as soon as i saw the upside down american flag i asked my wife to take it down, but for several days she refused. >> congressman daniel goldman on the response to calls for recusal. >> chief justice roberts must step in and make sure that he does not have any role in deciding these cases.

>> when "all in" starts now. good evening from new york, i am chris hayes. the criminal trial of donald trump was turned over to the jury today. 12 of trumps fellow new yorkers, i say that somewhat tongue-in-cheek, deliberated for four hours today before being dismissed for the day shortly before 4:00. this afternoon the jury sent two notes to the judge requesting to hear for sections of witness testimony, as well as the judge's instructions. court will reconvene tomorrow morning with the court reporter reading back the relevant parts of the transcript before the jury continues deliberating. one consistent rule about juries is you just do not know what they are going to do. when you put 12 random strangers in the room, the outcome is never obvious. we do know there are three possibilities, broadly. the jury could acquit donald

trump on the counts against him. all 12 jurors have to agree unanimously. we could get a hung jury if all 12 jurors cannot agree either way. it only takes one holdout for that outcome. or the jury could decide to convict trump if they agree he is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. again, there are 34 separate felony counts at play, so these can be mixed and matched in a variety of ways. understandably a lot of people are very invested in the outcome of this trial. i do think it matters, but no matter what happens, i do believe that the process has already been a victory for the rule of law and a rebuttal to the worst and most dangerous aspects of trumpism. the fact the former president was investigated, charged and tried by a jury of his peers shows no one is above the law. that is not donald trump's vision of the law. in his view there is no such thing as a neutral free and fair process like a trial or an election. all that matters is out him. if he wins it is fair.

if he loses it was rigged. he has said this about everything from legal trials to presidential elections to the emmy awards. that is donald trump's authoritarian view of the world. the powerful get to dictate what happens. it is the opposite of hours core civic commitments of equal rights, equal protection and equal justice under the law, that we are all subject to the same fair processes and we respect the outcomes of those processes. it is the basic liberal project. in a way this trial has been a test for america. for the first time in our history of former president has been prosecuted and tried for committing a crime. we know this process works in some other democratic countries. as happened in france, south korea, taiwan, where former presidents have been successfully tried and convicted. we've seen the process play out on the state level. for governors of illinois have been sentenced to time in

prison. the most recent had his sentence commuted by none other than donald trump. connecticut governor john rowland was convicted twice for corruption, 10 years apart, spending 10 years in prison. the state's attorney of baltimore was sentenced to home confinement after being convicted of perjury and mortgage fraud. with the first trial near its completion the principle of justice for all in america is a bedrock one and just to be clear, it used to be, i think a consensus and it no longer is. trump and his republican toadies, people going to new york just like donald trump to stand at microphones, they all rejected and yet this trial is a real success in its own right. for weeks donald trump had to sit in a courtroom where justice is, day in and day out, dispensed to regular citizens. both sides presented a case to a jury of his peers. all while another group of

trump lawyers try to convince the supreme court that he has a special status as a former president. a special kind of citizen unbound by the normal processes of mere mortals. donald trump does have more access to wealth and fancy lawyers then 99.9% of all criminal defendants who step into a courtroom in america and yet the process played out as it should for any american. he went through the full, normal process of a trial that any person accused of a crime would. that is what is at stake in the new york courtroom and in the supreme court's decision about so-called presidential immunity. ultimately our entire liberal democratic order rises and falls on our ability to produce fair and neutral processes that apply to everyone and lead to outcomes we can all trust. if it fails, we have trumpism, authoritarianism. so whatever the jury decides in trump's case is not as important as that process.

the trial of donald trump, i believe, has proven that the process works. independent of the outcome and that alone is a rebuke of everything trump stands for. harry litman served as attorney general at the department of justice. as people that worked in that office and someone in the trial every day, do you agree with that assessment that as a process, as a sort of test of american equal justice under law, that independent of the outcome, it is a success? >> i agree. forgetting that it is donald trump, former president of the united states, this trial was orderly. donald trump, inside the courtroom, behaved himself relatively. the jurors came on time. there were no hiccups throughout the trial and most trials are like that. some there are hiccups. you are right, he is not above

the law. no one should be above the law and most defendants, in many ways, he has received special treatment. he has four indictments and he is free, so that is one thing. but it is good for people to see, whatever the verdict is. that is how the system works and you have to respect that. >> it is an important and i would say beautiful point, really. he was brought to heel during this trial. he had to do as others do and it was a full and fair sort of oversight by judge merchan, but merchan is really channeling the law here. it was the law that made him sit, the law that made him show up, the law that subjected him to the same thing that happens to everyone else. people are understandably jittery now. unanimity is one of the features of due process that he

received and in a way that is secondary. a possible political response, he could be convicted and sail through, but the fact that the process has happened, it is majestic. >> we don't know what the jury will do and i feel like if this were the january 6 trial, i know he is guilty. i saw it, i read the report. in this case i think it was a compelling case and as a watcher i think i probably think he is guilty, but again the independence of process -- one of the things i've been trying to balance and would love to hear you both as we await this. at one level you don't want to be like everything that runs the american justice system is great, because it is clearly not. you know having been in that building for 30 years. so i don't want to say if he is convicted it is fine. people get wrongfully convicted all the time. at the same time there is something so insidious to me about the entire republican party marshaling behind a kind of party line that this is a

corrupt enterprise to its core. >> that was to me the most offensive part of the trial, which wasn't about the trial, but the speaker of the house of representatives, senators, congresspeople outside the courthouse while a trial is ongoing, basically trashing the process. criticizing the judge. talk about attacking an independent judiciary. criticizing the judges daughter. that was a statement against the rule of law. the trial was ongoing and they were doing that and that was shameful to me. >> and that is even kicked up a notch in the last few days where you have republicans lying. they are stupid or pretending to be stupid, you never know, but about what the jury instructions are. it has to do with the step up thing, but you have marco rubio and others propagating these sorts of lies against merchan and the whole process happening now.

>> that's exactly right, but that's the political sphere. somewhere in a courtroom in manhattan, everything we hold dear happened and it really demonstrated his being subject to the same processes and that part itself kind of brought him down. he's someone who embodies the principle that no one can tell me what to do and here the law told him what to do and forcefully for several weeks. >> so i want to talk about the potential outcomes and your experience with it. acquittal, hung jury, conviction. each of those apply to each of the 34 counts. juries can say we are unanimous on these 12 and hung on these 22 or any combination thereof. >> they could say his signature is on nine checks, he's guilty of that, but then you could have some who are not sure about the ledgers and invoices, so you could have conviction on the checks, hung jury on the invoices, not guilty on the

invoices or ledger entries. >> have you experienced that? >> often i would say, i don't have to worry about it being reversed on appeal, because it shows the jury was thoughtful. they went by each count and said guilty on this, not guilty on that. so that may happen. i don't know, because i can't read tea leaves. i do not think there will be 12 members of the jury who will say not guilty on all 34 counts. >> that is a bold prediction. >> ari melber made this point last night that really stuck with me about the difference between a hung jury strategy and an acquittal strategy. he made the point about o.j. simpson where he said it was an acquittal strategy because they say here is a comprehensive theory that can explain the evidence. the man was framed by the racist lapd. there is dna on these things, but actually it wasn't.

that is an acquittal strategy. here the defense has offered no acquittal strategy. there is no comprehensive, reasonable, alternate theory i've seen where you can say he had nothing to do with the whole thing. >> no counter narrative. just you shouldn't believe michael cohen. in fact what was indicative of that is the way that todd blanche read out the prison point he was castigated for at the closing. that is can i get one, can i get a hung jury even being improper? they've given up and there is no prospect of an acquittal. >> it is the next best thing to an acquittal for a defense attorney. >> it plays as a victory, but your point unanimity is important. if it happens it is a political triumph, but still a legal victory that goes through the process. >> thank you, that was really

edifying. appreciate it. coming up, why the judge spent more than an hour giving detailed instructions to the jury weighing donald trump's guilt. what to make of the questions the jury sent back, that is next. next. if you're living with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis or active psoriatic arthritis, symptoms can sometimes take you out of the moment. now there's skyrizi, so you can show up with clearer skin... ...and show it off. ♪ nothing is everything ♪ with skyrizi, you could take each step with 90% clearer skin. and if you have psoriatic arthritis, skyrizi can help you get moving with less joint pain, stiffness, swelling, and fatigue. and skyrizi is just 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections

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so you don't have to compromise. powering smarter savings. powering possibilities. a few hours after the jury began to relations and donald trump's new york election interference trial, two notes were sent from the jury room to the court. the first asked for testimony from david pecker and michael

cohen to be read back. about an hour later, a second note asked for the jury instructions to be read. the judge dismissed the jury, saying the refreshers will happen when court is back in session tomorrow morning. the jury will have the option to work late, perhaps going to 6:00 tomorrow night. charles coleman served as a prosecutor in brooklyn and they both join me here. it's great to have you. let me start with you, judge. let's just start with the process that produces those instructions. so, judge merchan give instructions for about an hour this morning. an hour and a half, so 10:00 to 11:30 or somewhere around there. how does the sausage get made on those instructions? >> well, the judge invited both parties to submit proposed instructions. the defense got to submit proposed instructions. the d.a. got to submit proposed instructions and last friday

there was a charging conference. about three hours long in the afternoon and both sides got to make certain points. the judge got to make certain points. the judge seemed to be leaning the defense way and in other areas he seemed to be leaning the d.a.s way. we were expecting to see the is instructions -- to see these instructions earlier. >> they were just read today and that's all we got. did you have an impression of them? >> i was caught by surprise by one particular instruction. when the judge laid out the pathway to the felony, right? >> the fact that the misdemeanor had to be committed in furtherance of some other crime. >> right. 34 misdemeanor counts for donald trump falsifying business records. i've been to trial every day. i think there is abundant evidence to support them, starting with the nine checks

he signed. but to get the felony they have got to be to conceal or commit another crime. so what was also in the instructions, which was not a surprise that the object crime that the people designated, we knew that last week during the charging conference. the object crime is new york election law. now what everyone had been assuming, including me, is that the essence of that is two or more people to conspiracy charge. act in a way to prevent or get someone elected by unlawful means. so the trick is unlawful means. everyone was thinking unlawful means is bringing this back to the federal election campaign act. >> right. >> fica is in there, that is not a surprise. the surprise is the judge added another menu in the instructions and i don't even remember this being discussed

in the charging documents. if i did i probably would have remembered it and when i heard it today i was like okay. that plays four separate additional falsification of business records as a path. >> i just want to read those. although you must conclude unanimously the defendant conspired to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means, you need not be unanimous to what those means were. he may consider the following. violations of the federal election campaign act otherwise known as fica. falsification of other business records. violation of tax laws. >> the falsification of other business records was a surprise. records relating to michael cohen. there is extensive testimony and records that when he created this essential consulting, the vehicle to get the $130,000 under the table to stormy daniels, he lied.

he didn't say this was for a star. he lied on the application. another false business record in there which i think is a really potential, big, big problem for trump is the falsification, causing the 1099 to be made for michael cohen for $420,000 in income that there is a mountain of evidence -- so, trump is going to have a hard time distancing himself from that if, if cohen's testimony is believed with respect to a key january 17 meeting in trump tower where he said he attended with allen weisselberg. >> right, that is the one. >> that is a pathway, though. >> they ask to get the instructions read back and in new york you don't get them

printed out, so if you want them again you have to have them read again. >> i think the fact they are asking about instructions this release is two things. number one, these are complicated and they want to understand them. a lot of people thought going into this that it is very straightforward and i have been telling people it really isn't. the misdemeanor is straightforward and easy to understand, but to get to that felony, that is where it gets complicated and i imagine where the jury is getting hung up. they are going about looking at this case and the deliberations in an organized and serious fashion. we did not want a verdict on day one, because that would've shown they did not take this process seriously. the fact they are asking for the raid backs means they are likely corralling the evidence, starting at the beginning. when they are talking about the elements of the crime laid out in the jury instruction, i imagine they are taking the evidence they have and the testimony they received and match that to the elements to

see if they have been met beyond a reasonable doubt. >> how often have you been shocked by a jury in your career? >> shocked by a jury? i don't know if i have ever been totally shocked. >> really? where you are like i definitely know the outcome here? >> no, no. >> what does that mean? >> meaning what? >> that you have not been or you just reserve judgment sitting in that chair? >> you reserve judgment, give people the benefit of the doubt and then see what direction they are going to go. i've never been totally stunned one way or another. >> as a lawyer you learn to reserve judgment until you get the verdict. i think there are signs you have a sense when you're trying a case of who might be with you. the question is, how with you are they? the other thing is that we have no idea as to what the juror dynamics are going to be in

that room. there may be a juror on your side, so to speak, but may cave to pressure because they don't have the strongest voice in the room. >> that is the other thing. the whole conceit is that average citizens with rational faculties can discuss, argue, and persuade. are open to reason and argumentation and collectively can make a decision. >> and you hope for that not to the point of favoring a consensus, but favoring what is reasonable and appropriate and what errs on the side of justice. >> what would shock me would be acquittal. >> i think everyone is on board with that. that would be shocking. thank you gentlemen, both. still ahead, samuel alito answers calls for his recusal on january 6 cases with a wife blaming extravaganza for the ages. she won't take down the legs. that jaw-dropping turn in that

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today democrat sent chief justice roberts a letter seeking more information about what justices knew about samuel alito's pro insurrection flags and when he knew it. the letter asked how do you

plan to enforce -- and also asked does the chief justice have an obligation to report violations to congress? remember, alito's explanation of the scandal to reporters was that his wife, martha-ann, was confronted by her liberal neighbors and called a folder name and responded by hoisting an upside down flag over the house, a distressed symbol that happened to be adopted by supporters who violently stormed the capital a few days earlier. i will say to my mind that that in and of itself never really made sense. even weirder, they offered no explanation for the other insurrection related flag they flew for months over their summerhouse. now new reporting from jodi kantor, the new york times reporter who broke the news on these flags, raises questions about the story alito pulled.

the thirtysomething neighbors said after january 6 they did put signs in their yard saying that trump is a fascist and you are complicit. they said that was not direct it at alito, but all republicans who chose to defend the insurrection. the signs came down quickly at the request of one of their parents. then on january 17 hoisted the upside down flag, but if this was meant as a message to the neighbors, they told the times they did not see it. the house does not even have a direct view. what about the confrontation that alito says led to flying the flag? the first confrontation came january 20, inauguration day, which alito did not attend. so the neighbors drove by to see what they were up to that day. according to the neighbors and texts they sent at the time, alito was outside and ran toward their car and yelled something at them. as they passed the house on the way out of the neighborhood, the wife of samuel alito appeared to spit

at the car. one of those neighbors did admit she called mrs. alito a folder name, which, bad luck. that was a shouting match in february that led the neighbors to call the police on martha- ann alito. weeks after they had flown the notorious flag. now you might think given all of these developments and growing calls from members of the senate judiciary committee demanding alito accuse himself from pending cases, alito is reconsidering his story. you would be wrong. today alito sent a defiant letter to the senators. on his supreme court letterhead. i should note he is responding to senators who did not write to him. they wrote to chief justice roberts but he is writing back and saying he is under no obligation to recuse himself, even intimating he is obligated not to, which is unclear, and adding wild details to the story. i had nothing whatsoever to do

with the flying of that flag. i was not aware of the upside down flag until it was called to my attention. i don't know, i feel like i would notice it outside my house, but i don't know. alito continued, as soon as i saw it i asked my wife to take it down, but for several days she refused. everyone take a minute to imagine those two days. if this is in fact that. i will say this is alito expecting one woman's right to choose. he penned the second flag on his wife as well, saying i recall my wife did fly that flag. what is most relevant here, i had no involvement in the decision to fly that flag. my wife is fond of flying flags. i am not. what can you do? my wife is crazy about flags. now, alito's stories could be

true. i don't know. but in the end as the experts who follow this say, the point of the ethical codes and things that apply to every judge, district, appellate, is to avoid the appearance of impropriety or bias. if you are flying a flag with an ideological message, that doesn't help. flying a treason flag over your house on the day of the inauguration of joe biden pretty clearly telegraphs the appearance of some bias, wouldn't you say? as congressional democrats pointed out, there is someone in charge of policing the impropriety at the supreme court. that would be the chief justice of the court, john roberts, who, crucially, has yet to say anything to comment on this publicly. so where is he? with just one pill a day. choose acid prevention. choose nexium. when we say it'll be on time, they expect it to be on time. turn shipping to your advantage.

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so today we finally heard from supreme court justice samuel alito in the form of two letters he sent to congress. he explained why to flags associated with the insurrection fluid is to homes. refused to the request to recuse from cases before the court. there is one key figure we have not heard from yet, the chief justice of the supreme court that has said nothing about the scandals undermining americans confidence in his court. roberts has not responded to two top democratic senators who wrote them last week asking he ensure alito recuses himself and requesting a meeting as soon as possible to discuss steps to address the supreme

court effects crisis. and goldman is a democratic representative from new york. the letter was signed by 43 colleagues and he joins me now. well, you got a response. what is your response to the response? >> it is pretty shocking. the fact that justice alito thinks he can be the judge and jury of his own impartiality flies in the face of supreme court precedent, flies in the face of the constitution, flies in the face of federal law and completely miss applies the standard he is supposed to be applying. even given the fact there is no binding code of ethics on him and he essentially gets to decide this himself. but the standard is whether a reasonable person, whether a person could reasonably think that he has some degree of bias or partiality.

it is not whether he does or doesn't. it is whether it is reasonable for someone to conclude that he has an appearance of a conflict of interest and for him to actually say in this letter that it is completely unreasonable for anyone to think that when he flies a stop the steel flag or the flag is flying from his home, that that somehow is not reasonable 11 days after january 6, to think that he has some political bias about a case related to stop the steal, that flag, and january 6. it is bewildering. >>'s argument is, my wife did all of this and she is an independent woman. she co-owns the house. he says in the letter, she has a right to do whatever she wants with the property, so i can't control her at all and

therefore no reasonable person, unless someone with an ideological bias, could think that i have true recuse. therefore i won't. at a deeper level it seems to me that all of this is pointing to a real constitutional standoff between the branches. the current assertion is that you can't make us do anything. we are an independent branch and no one can make us recuse over anything and you should take a long walk off a short pier. that is really what they think. >> 100%, which is baffling given the jurisdiction congress has conferred on the supreme court. the funding that we give to the judiciary as a coequal branch. we obviously have oversight and leverage over the supreme court, otherwise we don't have coequal branches of government. even under the supreme court precedent itself, recently, a judges spouse is sufficient to implicate a judge in whatever

conflict of interest there may be. this is not old, 100-year-old. this is justice kennedy and jamie raskin, the ranking member of the oversight committee, has a terrific op-ed in the new york times which goes through the caselaw of why it is not just up to justice alito and the supreme court with their nonbinding advisory code of ethics, unlike every other judge in the land, but that they are actually required to recuse if, in a circumstance like this, there is an obvious and reasonable appearance of a conflict of interest. it doesn't have to be an actual conflict. in appearance is enough and it is absurd for justice alito, and frankly justice thomas as well, given that his wife was involved today >> gave testimony to the january 6 committee. >> and was involved texting mark meadows related to the same conduct, the same facts

before this court in two cases. it is not just a bias toward donald trump. it is the same factual pattern that is before the court, that if you believe justice alito, both of their spouses made political statements about. that is obvious and at a minimum it is reasonable to think that there is an appearance. >> there is obviously the federal criminal case against donald trump for his conduct in the aftermath of the election. there is also this fisher case before the court about one of the charges, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, which is before the court as well. i guess the next question is, it is notable to me. you guys wrote to alito, right, on the house side? senate committee wrote to roberts and they got a letter back from alito, which itself is kind of wild. they didn't write to alito.

they got a letter back . all right, you come before congress to ask for funding or whatever. we want to talk to you and so far nothing. >> it underscores the problem that the supreme court has right now, which is that technically chief justice roberts doesn't actually have any authority over justice alito to require him to recuse, other than as part of a larger court decision. if there were to be a request. but what is shocking about this is that we are now on the precipice of an irreparable, harmful decision, by two justices, who to any other federal judge in the country would recuse. it is up to chief justice roberts to save the courts legitimacy right now and for

him to not respond to senator durbin and senator whitehouse and instead for alito to respond to them is truly flouting congresses oversight authority and the role as a coequal branch and it does not bode well for what is to come over the next few weeks when i think the biggest travesty in supreme court history may occur if these justices rule on cases about which they are clearly conflicted. ethical. biggest ethical. tragedy. >> congressman dan goldman, great to have you. still to come, how is the guy awaiting potential felony conviction pulling ahead of the current incumbent overseeing arguably the strongest american economy in history? new data provides fascinating clues, next. d a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning.

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we're now a little over five months out from election day, and this remains an astonishingly close race based on the polling. to my mind, the single most illuminating explanation of the polling, and i think the electorate, if it's accurate, was published in "the new york times". it is this chart here, and it compares the preferences to registered voters over time. the blue means more support for president biden, the bottom part, the red, means more support for donald trump. this top line, it shows support for the candidates among registered voter who is voted in 2020. you can see that biden's lost

ground from a lead of under five points in 2020 to a lead of about two points today. on the whole, engaged voters still support joe biden. this line shows the polling preferences of registered voter who is did not vote in the 2020 election. this may be the source of the massive polling swing in donald trump's favor. as you can see, four years ago, according to the data, biden held a bit under ten-point polling lead with nonvoters. now trump holds a lead of about 14 points with people who did not show up in the 2020 election. and there are two ways to interpret this data. one theory is that there is an enormous pool of dissatisfied american who is don't usually vote but might show up because of that dissatisfaction. the other is that this is noise, because those folks might just simply stay home again. 2020 was the highest turnout election of our lifetime, and they didn't vote them. if they weren't motivated to vote for trump or biden four

years ago, whether they vote now? in a great piece for vox, eric writes about how trust in our institutions might be the axis on which our politics is currently split. he explains why less engaged voter, including demographics which previously supported democrats, are maybe warming up to donald trump. quote, biden's weakness with young, nonwhite, and low-propensity vote ears is in alignment with low levels of trust. there is some evidence that the race is cleaving high trusters from low trusters. i liked the piece. i thought it was very thoughtful. what does it mean for american politics if it is, in fact, polarizing on trust? >> what that means basically is voters vary in terms of levels of trust in society and in politics. how much trust they have in various government institutions, whether they think the government generally tries to do the right thing, and whether they feel like other people,

their fellow americans, can generally be trusted to treat them fairly or whether you think you can never be too careful with people. they might try to take advantage of you. in the trump era, there's some evidence that this has become increasingly predictive of whether you favor the democratic or republican party. if you are high in trust, you tend to support democrats and low in trust tend to support republicans. i think one of the changes that's relevant to the current moment is that if you are a low trust voter, if you don't trust america's institutions to be legitimate, then a guilty verdict against the republican nominee in a court, you know, well, the courts are rigged. >> right, right. >> so i think that this also happens to correlate very much with how reliably you turn up for elections. if you trust the political system, more likely to show up every two years and cast your ballot. >> yes, one of the things i think is interesting about this, we talk about the split between special election performance and polling, right? and what we have seen is in

special election after special election in the last year, particularly since the dobbs decision, democrats have really overperformed. and one of the points that nate has made and i think is pointed to in your analysis is there's going to be a high correlation between the kind of people who come in the lowest turnout elections, which is a special election in an off year for some state senate seat that's up, and relatively high trust individuals. people who think basically they trust that the system will work that their participation will effect. and if you're capturing those people, it doesn't tell you what's happening in the broader electorate. >> that's right. i mine, and it's complicated, because on the one hand, all else being equal, you would like to be the party of regularly engaged people who come out in elections. and that didn't always work out well for the party. >> they got creamed in a few midterms because of it. >> that's right.

>> you can be caught off guard by this, which i think happened to an extent in both 2016 and 2020 where democrats underperformed their polling significantly. and this was possibly because the nature of polling is that you are measuring the opinions of people who trust other people enough to take a call from -- >> just answer the phone. this is where the confounding happen, right, because there's election bias in this day and age of answering the phone for a pollster. this is something that pollsters are wrestling with right now. >> there's also something i think really pernicious for democracy here, which is that trump really does -- like he really is a low trust guy. like everyone's -- basically everyone's a mark or, you know, a con man. that everything is a kind of cynical game of power, that there is no such thing as the rule of law, that people are getting over on each other, and all this stuff is rigged. that's his favorite word.

one of the things we see in international settings, and you mentioned this, is that trust in democratic health are pretty correlated. it's hard to run low trust democracies. >> it's a very tricky thing for liberals and progressives as well, because on the one hand you want to mount, often, a very fierce critique of institutions as they exist right now. talk about our stream court, for example. >> right, exactly. >> at the same time, if you cultivate a situation where the public doesn't trust the government, it's hard to increase the government's authority over regulating the economy, et cetera. you need a certain baseline level of trust in institutions in order to advance a wide variety of liberal goals. >> do you think -- to the degree this thesis is correct it poses a what is to be done. there's also the information environment. you write about this in the piece, the declining influence of mainstream news. one of the things we've seen, people who read the newspaper,

biden's up 20 points. don't seek out political news, trump is up 15 points. i'll pulling those from memory. if you're getting information in a catch all way and you're a low trust individual, how do you reach those voters? >> i've heard that biden is advertising more on tiktok now, trying to get to voters where they are. so and you can go after the platforms where they're going to. you know, at the same time, it's a little bit tricky in terms of how as an incumbent you craft a message of change that's going to resonate with people. he's done this a little bit with populous rhetoric about junk fees. >> that is all in on this wednesday night. alex wagner starts right now. >> tiktok is going to decide the election, is that where we're at? >> i think it's totally possible. >> yeah. >> in a close enough election anything can plausibly be said