good to be with you, i'm katy tur. hunter biden's conviction appears to be inconvenient for a key republican campaign pitch. as we have been hearing since 2020, donald trump has repeatedly called him a

criminal. he's only out of prison because his dad is joe biden, they would say. >> where's hunter, where is hunter? i went to one of them. we have to have where is hunter, as a witness. what do you mean where's hunter, i have made his first name where's hunter. >> today hunter biden is awaiting a meeting with a probation officer after yesterday's felony conviction on gun charges. while the headline might sound like music to republican ears, his conviction is undercutting their 2024 campaign pitch, that the whole justice system, the doj is owned and operated by president biden himself. from "the new york times," quote, many trump allies had been secretly rooting for an acquittal, talking points wrote themselves, it would have been yet more evidence that the united states justice system was rigged in favor of the bidens and against the trumps.

tuesday's guilty verdict was inconvenient to that narrative. the inconvenience of the conviction punctures more than campaign talking points. it might have even put house republicans' effort to find attorney general merrick garland in contempt of congress at risk. there's supposed to be a vote on that in 30 minutes. will the entire gop conference vote to pass it. joining us now, nbc news white house correspondent mike memoli. "punchbowl news" contributor, jake sherman, and former u.s. attorney and msnbc legal analyst, barbara mcquade. let's start, jake, with what's happening in congress. this contempt vote on ag merrick garland. first off, why do republicans want to hold him in contempt in the first place. >> because he did not or refused to provide the audio recording of president joe biden's interview with special counsel robert hur. this is something that obviously the president has asserted executive privilege over. this is something that

republicans desperately want. tom emmer, the house republican whip said this morning if the transcript matches the audio tape, why do you care, but, i mean, of course, the administration and the justice department have qualms about this, because of course anything can be taken out of context. they have already provided a good deal, the transcript to the public so they don't want to do this. but this is going to be a really tight vote, katy. everything in the house is a really tight vote. why? because they have a one-seat margin, and today the test vote so the procedural vote that allowed them to proceed to this vote passed by one vote because of absences and a whole host of other issues. so republicans tell me this afternoon that they are confident that they could pass this, but, you know, i've heard a lot of missed projections for republicans over the years and months, recent months that gives me pause. >> how does this conviction of

hunter biden complicate things, jake? >> well, i don't know that it has complicated anything legislatively, but, i mean, to be honest with you, katy, it does highlight, again, remember, not this entire conviction but a lot of the elements of the hunter biden episode, of all the charges against hunter biden were a result of the ways and means and house republican investigations into the biden family. of course they were not able to touch joe biden or impeach joe biden. but they did take a victory lap here for this conviction, which is, again, it's a conviction. it's a felony conviction. it is not, of course, and this is what republicans keep pointing out. it's not what they said they were going to be able to unearth on the biden family, and especially hunter biden and joe biden specifically. but listen, this is a never-ending war that house republicans are engaged in against joe biden, against the biden administration, against the biden family.

>> all right. let's talk about what happened yesterday with the conviction. we all expected president biden to say something at the gun safety event which he was going to. that didn't happen. the president did fly back to wilmington, delaware, to be with his had son. do we know anything about that meeting? >> well, katy, i think the president would have loved nothing more than to be present with his son during that trial. both his busy day job and frankly the norms and traditions of him being president during the trial, as the head of the executive branch kept him from doing so. it was important for people close to the family for the president to spend the brief amount of time with hunter on the tar mac there, just to express his support for his son and frankly for his son to express his support for his father during what has been a very difficult period. both men have traveled very long distances from delaware. the president on the way to the

g7 summit, and hunter back to his family, we got a clear signal for the biden team about how they're going to let -- a campaign spokesperson put out a statement, noting that donald trump has nothing on his campaign schedule again today. the statement says donald trump is too incapable of campaigning after his criminal conviction. the fact that they are invoking donald trump's conviction the day after hunter biden's, it's a posture on behalf of the bidens. >> i had a juror from the trial and i asked him whether he thought hunter biden should go to prison. i think we should play it. >> i do not think jail is what's the right thing for hunter. if she's soaker, staying sober, that should be his main focus. as far as what other punishments

you could give him i don't know, maybe house arrest. i don't know. i'll let the judge decide her decide. >> he believes in the justice system, a juror that lives in a blue state in a blue county prosecuting the democratic president's son, and he said after it was all done, after seeing the evidence, after coming to the conviction, saying that hunter biden did what he did, and he deserved to be convicted for it, he thought that the justice system worked, that everybody is treated equally. but at the same time, there are so many political attacks on the justice system, arguably, we're seeing one of them in congress right now. democrats say that ag merrick garland is only going to potentially be held in contempt because republicans want to use those audio tapes politically in the campaign against joe biden

for president. talk to me about the moment we're in, and what these two trials, the hunter biden trial next to the trump trial mean going forward. >> something i read yesterday in an op-ed written by merrick garland where he said there is currently an effort to obtain short-term political gain, but at the cost of long-term damage to our criminal justice system and public confidence in it. this idea that criminal prosecutions are used as some sort of political weapon. i heard that interview that you did with the jury yesterday, and i found it very refreshing and a good reminder of the way ordinary citizens come to our court system to do their duty as jurors. they take it seriously. they don't see it as some sort of political game. they listen to the law. they listen to the facts and they do their best to render a decision. i think that's what happened in the case of hunter biden. justice was served. we'll see what happens with

sentencing but the jury did its job, they didn't consider politics in that case. they looked at the facts and the law and they rendered a verdict, the same way we saw a jury come into a manhattan court and render a verdict against donald trump. these attacks against the criminal justice system, i think, only serves to undermine public confidence in the criminal justice system, which in the long term can cause people to disobey the criminal justice system, and even to take the law into their own hands which risks vigilante violence, and so i think this is a really dangerous and reckless area to turn into a political battle. >> and merrick garland tops off the op-ed by talking about a california man threatening to kill everybody at an fbi field office. barbara mcquade, mike memoli, jake sherman, thank you very much, joining us now, rnc communications director, doug hyde. it's good to have you. >> it's good to be with you. >> i want to focus on the attacks against the justice department, and one note, which

i think is so striking. we have had a number of donald trump trials, two with juries none of the people on those juries have come forward to tell us what it was like in those deliberation rooms. we had a conviction of hunter biden just yesterday, already we have heard from four, i believe, or three of those jurors from that trial. why do we hear from those jurors and not trump's jurors? >> i think there's a fear of, you know, what we have seen with threats of violence, in some cases that acted out, and obviously on january 6th. and the judge in the most recent trial for trump said do not talk about this now or for a long time, just as personal advice. obviously they're following that. and i think that's the prudent sad thing to do. >> why are republicans okay with that? >> i think by and large, they know politically that if they get in donald trump's cross hairs, it's not good for them. we have seen that where trump comes up with nicknames, and they cross trump at their own political peril. it's a realuation.

>> what's the future? let him do whatever he wants for as long as he wants to do it, let him stay in office as long as he wants to stay in office? >> there are a few things. most republicans on capitol hill want donald trump to win this election. they are mindful that's a four-year term, and they're ready to turn the page. >> you're talking about them being mindful. i have not seen evidence of being mindful of donald trump or reigning him in at any point since donald trump has come on to the political scene. and won in 2016. the goal posts keep getting moved farther and farther back, why are you so confident in four years, if he wins okay, they would force him to step down and respect term limits? >> there's no mechanism, other than a constitutional amendment. >> you're talking about mechanisms. i think people out there are worried that mechanisms aren't going to matter. if donald trump says he wants to stay, and republicans say that's great, he has all the powers of the executive at that point,

there won't be a democracy left. >> an 81-year-old president at that point with one term where the constitution is very clear, republicans on capitol hill are going to be ready to turn a page. some of them in their own self-interest to run themselves. >> are you sure? >> yes. >> why are you so sure? >> we have had conversations about donald trump, i'm not a fan. i'll probably write in somebody else at this point. but the process, and you know, jake was talking about some of the votes today, the process can be sexy, and it can be very frustrating. we have learned that with donald trump. but ultimately, this would require a constitutional amendment for him to stay. that just seems a terribly high bar. >> i'm questioning why you're so confident in that. every single norm up until now, you can talk about mechanisms and i'll talk about norms, have been broken. the politicalization of the justice department, the fact that jurors fear for their safety, the insurrection on january 6th. there have been so many moments where it seems like of course republicans are going to say

this is a bridge too far. you can't get behind a guy who says he won when he didn't win and is trying to tear down the system and break confidence in all of our systems, and yet they have completely gone alongside him. marco rubio was a good example of that. >> politicians are self-interested people, and so a lot of these senators, members of congress, governors, they want to run for president themselves. it's part of why they ran against trump, even if they didn't go after him. they want to run in 2028. i think they're confident that if trump wins, it's four years and out. >> let me get to the smaller picture, the talking points issue, with hunter biden getting convicted, we heard republicans say i believe there's a two-tiered system of justice, and donald trump has been unfairly targeted in the conviction here in new york, the alvin brag case, but also in the indictments for election interference and retaining and hiding classified documents. does that hold water? i mean, certainly does among

donald trump's base, but what about the people that they need to get to win? >> when the convictions for trump were announced, i was in asheville, north carolina, swing state, somebody said to me a trump supporter, this is great news for donald trump. no, it's not. conviction for hunter biden, not great news for the biden campaign either. the rnc is fundraising off this. they see this as a good thing. it takes away a trump talking point but not one that's going to convince swing voters or double hater votes, don't like trump or biden in north carolina and nevada, arizona and so forth. that's going to be inflation, what things cost. that's going to be the border, all of the things that biden is under water on. >> do you think the fact that donald trump didn't, you know, try to torpedo the immigration bill is going to matter? >> it potentially could. i worked on immigration when i worked on house leadership, this was as good of a deal, james langford, did a heck of a job in negotiating and getting the

white house to bend to his will. that's a norm that gets busted unfortunately, and it means we're going to continue down this -- with this very real problem at the border. >> let me ask you about something a moment ago. you're going to write in somebody else. you don't like donald trump, but if you're writing in somebody else, isn't that essentially a vote for donald trump? >> i don't think it's a vote for donald trump because it's physically not a vote for donald trump. i wrote in paul ryan, mitt romney, and the honest truth is i vote in the district of columbia, i think joe biden is going to win that easily. >> doug, very good to have you in person noless, thank you for coming in. what happened in a deep red district in ohio, a surprise outcome that has folks talking. and eight foreign nationals with suspected ties to isis are arrested in three cities over the weekend. how they got on the fbi's radar. plus, what does hamas want because the biden administration says their demands are unworkable. and now a cease fire deal is in trouble. we're back in 90 seconds. onds

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senate primary after a late nod from the former president. that sets up what might become the critical race for control of the senate against democratic incumbent jackie rosen in nevada. but it is a shockingly close special election showing for democrat michael cripchak in a blue collar, rural ohio district that trump carried by 29 points in 2022 that's got people talking. joining us now, nbc correspondent, vaughn hillyard. let's talk about the special election, the surprise showing. why was it such a surprise? >> right. okay. let's first start with the numbers here. this very congressional district, we should note that joe biden lost to donald trump by 28 percentage points. >> we rounded up to 29. >> a significant difference but also reality check, just about 60,000 people in the congressional district voted in this special last night. compare that to 280,000 in the

november 2022 general election. democrats are saying, look, this is a sign that ultimately democrats are enthused. they saw legislative gains in pennsylvania and alabama. tom suozzi won the new york congress fall district. picked up the republican seat here, so democrats are saying, look, when the voters are having the opportunity in 2024 to vote, it's the democrats that are turning out in greater numbers? >> on the subject of immigration, tom suozzi ran after it. he said the immigration is a problem. the democrats want to fix it, and he pointed to the legislation that got torpedoed in congress. he didn't run from the issue. what was the gentleman in ohio's issue, how did he get so close? >> he was a veteran, working in a local restaurant, and you know, when we're talking about candidate quality, somebody's story, somebody that connects with the community is going to be key here. i think that's where you see democrats here. they have put focus and attention, and at the same time, that's why i think in nevada, if i may turn it. >> good, i was going to go there. >> sam brown, the republican

nominee for the senate there, he's a candidate who has a purple heart. he was injured in 2008, while serving the country in the army. was injured in a roadside bomb severely. and look, nevada in the 2022 senate race there, republicans lost by just about 7,000 votes in this go around. >> jackie rosen. polling is hard in nevada, and john ralston reminded us of this the other day, but jackie rosen has been doing well. she's polling ahead of joe biden in nevada. >> right. and look, this is where democrats are optimistic about their chances in some of these key states. they have these incumbents running from sherrod brown, jackie rosen, these are quality candidates, especially when you're looking at issues like abortion. you have sam brown here whose wife talked to our natasha, he was somebody who was open to a federal abortion ban, now

opposed to it. democrats are going to utilize that. they call them maga extremists and last night, just before the polls closed in nevada, he put a video out in which he was talking directly to his iphone in which he was calling the new york trial against donald trump a sham trial. there were folks that were questioning whether he was sort of playing ftse with donald trump and trying to play the middle lane and made it clear, he's a supporter of donald trump, and this is part of the republican candidates in 2024, you can't really run away from donald trump. >> i want to ask one more question about nancy mace. this was spicy because kevin mccarthy, endorsed her opponent. kevin mccarthy does not like nancy mace at all. what was the back story there? >> nancy mace after january 6th went out and suggested that, you know, the party should move beyond donald trump. >> she did so on our air. i was speaking with her. >> and yet, donald trump holds the power of the republican

base, and she in the last two years has gone running back to him. >> she said that's what the voters wanted and she's got to do what her voters want. >> and she beat the mccarthy backed candidate by 30 percentage points. >> and mccarthy is mad. >> he has a primary against mccarthy-backed candidate. eli crane in arizona. mccarthy is 0 for 1, but he's got a couple more to go. >> vaughn, thank you so much. joining us now, democratic pollster, and msnbc political analyst, cornell belcher. what do you want to add to the conversation, cornell? >> great conversation, first of all. what i think is really interesting, but as a political person, you never want to see if you're a republican or democrat, all the money that republicans are spending, going after each other. democrats sit back and go, fantastic, right. spend all of this money, these resources, this time, fighting each other in primaries, and that's resources that aren't going to be there for them in the general election to take on

democrats. >> so when you look at that ohio race in particular, the strong showing from the democratic opponent, do you see that as precedent for november or do you see, like vaughn mentioned, that it's a special election. it's a very small turnout, and it can't be indicative of what might be to come? >> two things, one is we often put too much weight and spin in what happens in primaries and special elections. that said, katy, i'm going to lean in and put a lot in this special election. one of the things is -- one reason i'm going to do that is because you do see, right, this is not one data point. this is actually a continuum of data along the same pathway, and that is you do see democrats outperforming expectations from, you know, going back the last three elections, and even the special elections that have happened and the off year

elections and midterm elections. you have seen democrats out perform expectations time and time again, and i think this is yet another data point in that continuum that sort of goes to reinforce that point that democrats, despite all the negative narrative about how horrible and poorly democrats are going in election times, democrats have been outperforming expectations. >> there's an open question about whether that enthusiasm extends all the way up the ticket. i mean, we have seen in polling that the democratic senators in various states are polling well above what president biden is polling. do you see that as voters saying i don't like him, but i'm going to vote for him or is there a real issue there? >> you would rather be biden than trump. and here's the conversation, someone who polled in '08 for the obama campaign, it is a really difficult state to poll in. what you do see is from the

standpoint of issues, right, if you look at the issues, and that goes even to what you were talking about, the special election in new york, if you look at where voters are on the issues, i would much rather be a democrat, both challenger or incumbent with a record on the issues, right? other than the issue of immigration, which i would argue, katy, that they bungled and gave democrats an opening to from an issues standpoint. senate democrats are where the vast majority of voters are. and again, you have double haters, but in the end, is donald trump closer to where the voters in these battle ground districts are from an issues standpoint or is joe biden closer to the voters in these districts and these states. for where the voters are on key issues, and are they going to break toward the candidate that's closer to them on key issues. despite the fact that they're not in love with either one of them. i think there's a lot of history in campaigns and politics in this country. when they're not in love with either candidate, they tend to

break towards the candidate that's more in line with them on the issues. >> when you don't have a crystal ball, get yourself cornell belcher, next best thing. thank you, sir. >> thank you. i.c.e. arrested eight foreign nationals in a multicity operation. what the suspects are accused of and what is holding up the latest round of cease fire talks between israel and hamas. rael as looking for a smarter way to mop? try the swiffer powermop. ♪♪ an all-in-one cleaning tool that gives you a mop and bucket clean in half the time ♪♪ our cleaning pad has hundreds of scrubbing strips that absorb and lock dirt away, ♪♪ and it has a 360-degree swivel head that goes places a regular mop just can't. so, you can clean your home, faster than ever. ♪♪ don't mop harder, mop smarter, with the swiffer powermop.

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eight foreign nationals from , they have been on the fbi's radar for potential ties to isis. all of them entered the u.s. through the southern border at which point all of their criminal background checks came back clean. joining us now, nbc news national law and intelligence correspondent tom winter. so the background checks were clean a couple of years ago when

they came in, when did they come in? >> right. so a couple of them came in in 2023,s others came in after that point. they came from that sikh stand, -- they're not getting that level of detail about these individuals, the u.s. maintains a number of databases, some of which are classified, some of which are not. they would run the names against the databases to see if, hey, we've got a terrorist concern. but if they go through that process, they're not going to trigger the system, and in one particular instance, according to our colleague, julia ainsley, the individual said they were claiming asylum and signed up for the app to schedule one of those court hearings for your asylum case. so that's that component. the violation here is not specific to them coming in to the country. the violation has to do with

terrorist investigation. >> what raised a flag after they were already here. >> right. so over the past nine, ten months or, so the fbi has been conducting a number of investigations into foreign directed terror plots. we haven't seen that for some time in this country. that's when a foreign terrorist organization, for instance, isis is trying to directly have people act out on their behalf here in the united states. not just putting out propaganda, just saying you should attack the u.s. because of x, y and z, they are specifically speaking to individuals. >> coordinating a plot. >> coordinating something here or imploring them or whatever it might be. they have a number of threads they're looking into along these lines, and a number are tied to central asia. >> it's behind what happened in russia. >> the i.c.e. case specifically. >> yeah. >> so in the course of that investigation, we're told they kept close tabs on them for several months. they were able to determine, look, these individuals, we have some concerns, the easiest way to go about this is just to say look, there's some immigration

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the latest deal for a cease fire between israel and hamas appears to be stalled. a three-step proposal that pulls all idf troops out of gaza, surge aid, begin reconstruction, and establish a new palestinian government. so long as every single hostage, dead or alive was returned. this week, secretary of state antony blinken said that israel was on board, and that all they were waiting for was hamas. well, today, it appears hamas's answer was effectively, we want more. >> hamas could have answered with a single word. yes. instead, hamas waited nearly two weeks, and then proposed more changes, a number of which go

beyond positions it had previously taken and accepted. >> joining us now, nbc news international correspondent matt bradley and on the phone, from do ha qatar, chief foreign affairs correspondent andrea mitchell who has been traveling with secretary blinken throughout the middle east this week. andrea, i will start with you. does the secretary of state think that there is still a path to get this deal done? >> he's essentially an optimist, which is why this is his eighth mission, katy. eighth mission since october 7th. he keeps thinking the two sides can be brought together. they should be motivated. certainly the administration feels that israel is exhausted from this, that netanyahu is under pressure, that there are new threats from the north, from hezbollah that netanyahu, despite the pressure from his right wing now with the resignation of his more centrist minister in the war cabinet,

benny gantz that netanyahu is ready, he has accepted and reconfirmed monday night as secretary blinken made very clear, and he said it's now up to hamas, and that basically is one man, sinwar, hiding somewhere in gaza, maybe in a tunnel, and both he and john kirby at the white house excoriated, they have been amping up the pressure. but the answer was they want more, as you pointed out, and you could sense the frustration in tony blinken's voice today at that news conference in qatar because he said this is virtually the same proposal they themselves have made, it's identical to what they had proposed several weeks ago. and now that israel has accepted it and adopted it, and it's an israeli proposal, essentially, they're not taking it. and they want more. there are some things, as you said, that are workable, but some things that are not, and they have to close the gap, and meanwhile people are being

killed. time doesn't standstill and the world is not standing still as he put it. the suffering continues, and grows. >> did the israeli rescue of four hostages over the weekend, using israelis who were, you know, under disguise in gaza to gather that intelligence, did that change the negotiate at all? did it add urgency, andrea? >> well, it certainly empowered netanyahu to an extent, there were celebrations throughout israel. certainly in gaza and elsewhere in the world because of the high number of casualties. news officials are pointing out that some of those officials did die in a fire fight with hamas shooting back against the rescuers. they're not criticizing israel for what they did. there have been a lot of questions raised about that operation, but four israelis were saved, and that did, you

know, certainly did increase the popularity of a very unpopular prime minister. it complicated it because it also made people around hamas, you know, even angrier. although, i have to say, from all of the evidence including the "wall street journal's" reporting of some intercepted communications or messages that they have seen, that the israelis have seen and the u.s. questioned it, and they are consistent, bragging that with every death, the palestinians need to be sacrificed because that is empowering him. and making, you know, more likely that hamas will succeed, putting israel more on the defensive, and weakening israel. the power of that is obviously. >> certainly. matt, talk about the reaction within israel and the position of benjamin netanyahu right now? >> reporter: well, it sounds as though benjamin netanyahu is going to be discussing this

deal. he's going to be talking about it tonight. that's what we're hearing from the prime minister's office, and that's an important detail here, because of course antony blinken said they are on board with the deal. joe biden, a couple of weeks ago said that this was israel's proposal, and that was also baked into that u.n. security council resolution that was passed almost unanimously just a couple of days ago. so they're going to be discussing it. interesting little wrinkle here, katy, the family's group that represents all of the families of the hostages, they actually took hamas's statement, and praised it. and said that this was kind of on the right track. i'm paraphrasing here, towards some sort of piece and getting these people home. to the families of the hostages, 80 thought to be alive, they saw hamas's proposal with optimism. now, from hamas's side, we heard from a senior hamas official. he rejected what blinken said and said hamas's position has been consistent the entire time. indeed, we got that information at nbc news saying that hamas

was disputing the time line that would go towards the full withdrawal of israeli troops from the gaza strip and a complete and final end to the fighting. that has been hamas's consistent position from the beginning. they have always said that they were going to make a deal, if they do make a deal to release the hostages, it's going to mean the end of the war, the end of israel's assault on the gaza strip. and he also rejected the "wall street journal" reporting about sinwar that andrea just mentioned, so, you know, a lot of strong statements from hamas. i think it's very tempting to look at this with pessimism. the last eight months have been filled with pessimism about the deal. you could hear the frustrationb. this is the closest the two sides could have been since november. >> matt bradley, thank you so much. andrea mitchell, thank you so much. a new report shows inflation is continuing to slow. what that means for interest rates. first up, though, democratic

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what's the deal with the republican version of an ivf protection bill? >> reporter: well, they're going to put that version of the bill on the floor by a process known as unanimous consent, meaning they need the consent of all 100 senators in order for the bill to go forward and pass in the senate. we don't expect that to happen for a couple of reasons. i spoke to the democratic trio of senators behind their version of the ivf bill that will get a vote on the floor tomorrow. they told me it's a step backwards, a step in the wrong direction. the bill from senator might add facing a challenger in texas. their version of the bill withholds medicaid grants, withholds key funding from states that try to impose ivf restrictions. it does nothing to define the viability of those nonviable embryos, something we saw created controversy in alabama earlier this year when some lawmakers there, the supreme court there said that nonviable

frozen embryos are still considered babies. it's why democrats are going to not support this bill. senator duckworth said it could lead to complications in medicaid. then, of course, we're looking ahead to the democratic bill tomorrow. >> i need to ask you about the other hearing happening on capitol hill. this is one about women's health. what's there? >> reporter: this is a hearing in the judiciary subcommittee, democrats putting a spotlight on interstate travel, what it takes for women to go out of states that have imposed restrictions to travel, the cost of that care. they're hearing from doctors, data scientists, also from other lawmakers who testified before the panel, one from nevada, the other from new york, to try to put a spotlight on what these women have to face when they go across state lines to obtain abortion care.

the hearing just concluded, katy, but it's part of the democrats' effort to shine a spotlight on the real consequences of overturning of roe v. wade a couple years ago. they're doing this through hearings and through legislation. they're trying to push on the floor, like the democratic version of the ivf bill, a comprehensive package they're looking to pass tomorrow. that's not expected to get the 60-vote threshold. republicans are trying to pass their version of the bill. they're also saying it's pure messaging and politics from democrats. it's something the trio of senators behind the bill oppose. they told me if this is messaging, it's a message they're sending to women across the country, that they're going to fight for their rights. it's not clear if anything is going to pass. >> julie tsirkin, thank you. a big announcement from the federal reserve on the same day we get the inflation report.

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second montana row. now the federal reserve said they won't change interest rates. joining us now christine romans. the numbers out there really strong for the economy. yet jerome powell saying i'm not cutting rates. >> usually you cut rates when the economy is starting to flag.

we're not seeing that. he talked about the low unemployment rate for a long time and the fact that inflation isn't -- progress on inflation, but not where they want it. the fed is pencilling in one rate cut for the year. beginning of the year, rewind, we thought there would be three rate cuts. now they're saying maybe just one. there's the cpi number you can see. improvement on the inflation front, but not down to 2%. >> when we talk about why people think the economy is so bad, why are people so angry about the economy when the data shows the economy is doing so well. the wage growth, unemployment numbers, consumer reports show that people are buying, buying, buying. when you look at what we showed on the screen, the inflation report, shelter is still really high, groceries are still really high. the things you can't get away from. >> wages have been rising faster than inflation for a little over a year. that takes time. there's a big lag from when people start to feel better

about things. you want to see wage growth higher than inflation. >> you want people to get used to the prices where they were at and understand that's the way things are. >> you want your paycheck to go further than inflation is eating it up. we're at that point now. i think the inflation scars were really deep. i think that 9% inflation a couple years ago, people remember it. i think there's -- we call it a reference price in economics. essentially i remember my grocery bill used to be $130. it's now $215. that ticks me off. >> mine is $300. shop in new york city, it's insane. >> this summer will be the summer of value. you've seen retailers cutting prices. apparel prices are down. there's other categories that are starting to fall. retailers are realizing we went too far and raised prices for too long. to get customers back they're starting to cut prices. >> don't have much time left. don't try to feed four children.

that's how your grocery bill is so high. is there blame to be put on corporations for pushing prices higher? >> they're cutting them quickly. the white house says that. they're cutting them quickly because they passed all the price increases along for two years and reached the breaking point for consumers. now they're cutting quickly. >> good. christine romans, thank you so much for making sense of it. that's going to do it for me. "deadline: white house" starts right now. ♪♪ ♪♪ >> hi, everyone. it's 4:00 in new york. inspired in large part by our conversation with my friend and colleague rachel maddow about how we cover this moment, this convicted ex president, current president, this extraordinary moment. we have a story for you. starts like this. shot and chaser. the time when the ex