the the hello, i'm manila chan you are tuned into modus operandi. know, got a car box is back on the world stage after a recent military campaign by us or by sean left, over a 100 armenians dead and 800000 more fling for their lives. but will be united states step in on a face off with their nato partner. turkey will explain. all right, let's get into the m o the refresh planes of another genocide as tens of thousands of ethnic armenians fled. no gordo car box in mid september to the armenian population,

this region is called arc soc flareups between our median forces and a very military have cropped up since the fall of the soviet union in 1991 and whatever you choose to call it this region is internationally recognized as within azerbaijan, borders, although the armenian locals had been pushing for an independent republic for years . so joining us to break it all down is kind of work out in mass. and he is an award winning, middle east commentator. he's the founder of seriana analysis and independent syrian news platform. he's been covering the latest military and diplomatic clash over they're going to car box on his new site. so can work. it's been a few years since you know, dramatic and deadly fighting has happened in a world car voc, roughly 3 years ago if i recall correctly. what happened exactly the disruptive piece since the end of the excess hosted it is in the late 2020, there was

a cease fire agreement brokered by russia between not going or caught up uh outside . so i mean its quality parts us and the other page on the site. however these uh, she's fine, it was all the time. it was uh, not so strong ceasefire, in my opinion, because there was so many components into agreements that hasn't been discussed between armenia and azerbaijan. one of which was the, the, the who owns different regions in our sauce, and from the armenian side, according to the history. there were different presidents and different data shapes who are gene on keeping some of the regions in arch soft that are populated by the armenians around 90 to 95 percent of these regions were populated by the armenians and he started these regions belong to the armenians however, the, as a bitch on the sides was also very determined to capture this territory and keep

out the indigenous peoples from this region. saying that this region belongs to us . obey john. so there was a, this conflict of, let's say territory, a conflict between the both sides. but the administration in you, yvonne, it seems that when they signed the treaty in 2020, they have also put their signature on a document that gives us a bitch on the legal right to off ownership over the started to obvious, which means the as a page on the side of sacked, it's to claim that if you ever have on the government, then you have on have signed a treaty, a document that says that these territories belong to azerbaijan. then we have to concur distribute stories. and if you don't want to give this territories to us to diplomatic means or actual negotiations, then we have to concur it to mean literally means. and what does a bit, john is deep. they started in late december, their 2022 to book

a day in pose a be located on our task virtue with the large inquiry doing so for those who don't know, the large inquiry door is the only corporate though left between armenia and not going to cut off to which the people who received their basic necessities from fluids, from medicine, from a school of products, everything including energy. so what happened is i was a bit john, at the beginning they claimed that they are there for environmental reasons. they send environmental activists quote unquote. and they blocked the dyslexia inquiry dorks aiming that armina is polluting the environment there and they are planting bombs on the both sides of the electric inquiry. the so this was a state orchestrated demonstrations. they've looked this quite a dog, which means that the people's where to start 120000 armenians in not going to cut off, they lost their lifeline. they don't have any supply of let's say food and

medicine and other basic necessities. so they were, they have start after 8 to 9 months, they couldn't, let's say, resist more without food. and all these basic necessities. and when the people in not going to come up a $120000.00 people each to a point of starvation, azerbaijan waged military campaign. and they help, okay, pied every inch of not going to cut off, including all the areas that belong to the armenians that are populated by the armenians are going to be on the side. claim that the people who live there, meaning it make our maintenance kind of states and they don't have to go to armenia . but the footage that we watched from on the ground in not going to cut up ah, show clearly that the forces off as a bitch on they have committed lots of crimes. and i myself, call me a document that these are crimes, including the computations, including the body motivations, including a rape and lots of crimes,

so that the armenians would see for their lives and go to it on or to our media. and what happened is now that 120000 people like a big exodus, they were forcibly displaced from their homes and from their towns, and they are now researchers in armenia. and unfortunately speaking, the armenian government also hit by pushing young people to understand that there is the position of the armenians, and then you have the position of the government, the government, the no, i mean you have doesn't necessarily represent the aspirations or the opinion of the people, because of political reasons, we can discuss that later. but pushing on governments, they said that there is no atrocities, major atrocities happening against the armenians. there. again, i was a bitch on use these statements and say, if your government say that they don't know, i trust it is, then why would you change that? we what we are forcibly just basing your and funny enough only

a few days before the un mission monitors who came to not going to cut off to check uh, what's happening there. as the, as a government are the of a gym, they donated a $1000000.00 to the u. n. and the un mission, when they arrived in the empty cities and towns of not going to kind of a, they said that they couldn't find violations of human rights there. so there are corruption on different players, international corruption and also corruption on the political level in the are among the, are in the army and government and also agreement of the mindset. in my opinion, some of the other big johnny side, which is based on ethnic cleansing of, to armenians from their, from their home towns just like what's happened, drink what one, when the ultimate need 5, committed. similar, if you use crimes against the armenians back then did the difference this time is that as of age on a is

a back by turkey. and the also so many regional and international powers who have given green lights to as of age on to commit this ethnic cleansing against armenians. all right, so like many other regions or, or on claims in various parts of the world, there have been frozen, conflicts over land. what makes this one different than other territorial disputes? what me the, the only difference in my opinion between this conflict in order to reach one of the conflicts is history. armenians, a live truly genocide. they paid one and a half 1000000 victims during the ethnic cleansing of the autumn, an empire against them. so they have always this, they have a devil of this, a bible instincts and survival to make on his ends in order to continue their presence individual. what's happened is that window armina is found that unfortunately, due to create, to 1st capture their territory. and secondly,

to create the buffers on between as a big jump and armenia, they have taken this opportunity and they have created the buffers, which means not one of the is not only an armenian territory, but also it's a buffer zone between our media proper. and also the vision, and once the armenians last not going to caught up on the other page on the as a b johnny side has no, there is no obstacles now in front of us have agent to advance insight proper. i mean, this is, we can see this statements we can learn from the statements of the if he says clearly that you have on sony 7, those who are international people. and as our menu interrogatories, he says, those are all gonna be $30.00. and we're going to concur distributors. so what steps now are the from concluding just everybody's nothing, because one, the armenians lost their, all i, russia, i mean, nice still part of the c s t o,

but because the armenians are having are pursuing a hostile relationship toward, let's say the government in armenia is especially in your side of relationship towards russia. the russians aren't coming for have to, i mean, you're secondly, the, all the hills and all the regions that surrounding these areas that are the ups, as they are, as every 30 to these, of pushing young, gave up distributors voluntarily. not even without fights to ideas to as a badge on. which means now as a vision has even the advantage of the geographic, it advantage of the hills to be able to foot down on these time. your thought is that he can name is that it's already so in my opinion, the armenians in the next period they would face with a very serious challenge of survival. because in my opinion, the us, every side we different at the attack, sneak, which is as the south side of region of armenia in order to force armenia to open

a trait about they quoted the corporate door between us a bit, john and turkey. and once this route is open, in my opinion, this will also try to in the interest of russia and the interest of you down and also the interest of armenia, any geographical connectivity between 2 to kick nations, it would in bolden pen to, to, to do i need some it to it in bolden, didn't you ultimately the sentiments again and in my opinion, the nato countries, we use these to turkey, which is a natural natal member country to extend their info laws to the cause us and to the caspian sea to do so. out they will, the, the, or pain side they are completely for opening this throughout the american side are come to do for opening new starts and even the russians up for opening this route.

but for different reasons, the only part of that is against opening is about now is it on. and unfortunately, the armina side, the government, you know, i mean, you know, they are not trying to pursue a friendly relationship even with the, you know, they put all their baskets in all their eggs in the basket of the west. and in my opinion, this is a suicide of policy from depression insight. yeah, that's pretty provocative language by i, lia, the right coming up next could this latest battle and they're going to car a bar, could force to nato allies into opposing sides. or will these 2 powers be able to broker piece will discuss the role of the us and turkey when we return with come work on last in, sit tight, the m o will be right back. the the

suckle at the roof price. so i'm gonna try to so know we, we would have to shop for different to 9 in his bedroom to see it when you, if you have to put a really aggressive swap on beach and control them. so pretty classmates. and so i knew it's showing up as a study, it's because of what's going on for lucy spits, earliest if somebody called me, i'm actually just kind of nice with them for pretty to so that wasn't sure what's going on. i left. can you feel like i have any more news? she wouldn't have got the going. it's beautiful. you live with some like that, but i think that go through that vehicle. no refresher the goes items for the shop. um yeah. not no,

i live at the are you leaving to own coley jake? uh the uh the the the question the

the welcome back to the m. o. i am the miller chan, middle east analyst and caucus region expert come work on my ceiling is back with us. so can work. this territory gets kind of murky when it comes to foreign alliances. i mean, traditionally, russia has been known to assist armenia while turkey backs arthur azerbaijan. but then enter the u. s. nicole fashion yon v armenian p. m. seems to be leaning towards the west in this new flare up. but it gets complicated because turkey and the us are both nato members. so theoretically, this could put the us and russia on the same side of the fight. what do you make of this mix up of bedfellows? the only difference is that, i mean there is no more and all i all pressure armenia has about the fight,

the almost out to the start tooth. which means that if the president put in at tries to visit armenia, i mean that is legally now by the to arrest. but i think they put the, which is something very funny that the country like, i mean, you're tries to do something like this. if we see the statements of south african leaders or in brazil or elsewhere, everybody makes a mockery of the icy seas decision to as put in right or to charge him with the alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. but the armenian side is it's, it's, it's going, it's we side the, there is no excuse to antagonize the pressure. you can have good relationship with the opinion. and you can join the association agreements with the opinion and you can join with security the agreements with the naples side without i'm talking icing restaurant. what's happening is nowadays that armenia is on the under

pressure and yeah, and they have on cargo and i especially and to extend that the russians say, what can we do about it? now we have good relationship with as a bridge on we have secure our as a jewel political interest in this house and cause us to as a bitch on. we have also secured our energy interest. our companies are working rarely and i was a bitch on then why do we need the armenia with armenians or? i mean, yeah, if the army knows we're not wants us, why do we, why do we have to run after the armenians right in this regard? because at the end of the day, we're not talking about the family relationship between a brother and, and the father. this is politics. and if the armenians want under pushing on to and talk on ice russia, then the russians should also look for alternatives for them in the region. and they have found it also in azerbaijan, the relationship between other bridge on industrial, he's very good in my opinion, unlikely to, i mean, you do. and i want to give a little bit of a historical context here. azerbaijan tried to capture this territory multiple

times. are now going to kind of the last one before question and was in 2016 when search sucked you sound was the president of armenia. and everybody has to know that the arguments and heavy arguments and everything that i mean you has to defend itself is from russia. the webinar b is also the offensive me size and technology from russia. and in 2016 when i was a bridge and tried to come curtis territory, the armenians were such that they have successfully repaired to attack. because one, they were willing to use the weapons that supplied them. and 2nd, they had good diplomatic security relationship, both with the restaurant and with the west. this is the thing that you always have to create the balance in, in your diplomatic relationship, and not to and target. and i as a very important factor in the agents under pushing and pushing and, and start going eyes that i show for us when he came to power,

he kicked out and the and she sent to jail lots of military and security. the officials who play the instrument and low in protecting access from other pitch on and dos were they had a good relationship with the restaurant. so it was, i mean, uh, which initiated on depression. you have to unplug one as the restaurant and not the other way around. and now what happened in 2020 is that when the color car was attacked, i'm not sure things came for help. this time to, i mean, you know which armenians desperately need. therefore, it's a wrong calculations and wrong decisions and wrong. you might open in mistakes that do the armenian side to has done in, in the past few years. which led to this catastrophe situation that we were living today in armenia and also a knuckle. and i caught up in early october, pushing young flew to spain for tox, hosted by the you. the, a very president,

ill home aaliyah, reportedly withdrew his rsvp at the very last minute. now this would have been an opportunity for peace talks on a multi lateral scale leaders of france, germany, armenia, and azerbaijan. and the council president charles michel, pasha, neon told media that he was writing to assign a so called break through deal. what's your read on the outcome of this? you brokered event and and y l e of dropped out historically in the past 2 decades, there was several attempts to booker a deal to break at the end between armenia and as i met john, there would be sent to europe in congress, involves america, united states, and also russia, this time this meeting was exclusively hold by the european and american side. did the exclusive domestic. i'm 50, in my opinion, you're kind of excludes about shot from the court because it's jo, perfectly impossible. it's like isolating through united states from mexico or from,

from canada. geographically speaking, those things doesn't make any sense. right. what happened is that person, yeah. and wanted to give credit for any sort of agreement that could be a that he may strike with as a badge on to the europeans and to the americans and, and exclude the russians completely from dislike. i'm not defending rush trying to see god. i'm just saying that there is an important actor course of player with great influence in the region that is excluded from this negotiations. and that doesn't make any sense to me. if you want to strike a deal and you want to be able to disagree with the architecture, that's the kind of protect the armenian silver entity. and also i want to pave the way for diplomatic relationship with as of age on, et cetera. you have to bring also all the players in the region, right. like, you know, for example, excluded from this. i mean, what has jim many has to do in this negotiations or friends cross?

oh, great, great to know the nice is they're far away from this region. they don't have direct presence in this region. i like it on and on like russia for example, the i was like a side to be true because they claim that the friends is biased toward to, towards armenia. and in my opinion, that's completely false because the, the insides, they have very close relationship with other page on their buying guys and or from other badge on. and they are striking deals after deals true to you and commission . we as a mitch on the problem is on the as a side that france rejects categorically the occupation of as a be john to at potential occupation if as of age on of any territories inside farming . yeah. proper for example, in so nic reaching my opinion, the idea of use preparing for any invasion instruction, armenia, so friends here, now he's sending the defense if track some empty piece for the armenians in this

area. and also by john says that as a into a few events in the, in this conflicts, oh, the other page on these were assuming with any, from all the sites they receive a weapons from the united states, direct minutes or 8 from united states. they receive weapons from is run david super friends from restaurant they receive up in some everywhere. but when armenians receive and this type of weapon to be, to defend themselves reduce, this will be done. but depression young uh, she unilaterally signed an agreement and he recognized the or, or accepted the attributes on the quote unquote integrity of azerbaijan, which means pushing man has completely abandons not going to kind of assigned on a paper which gave legally devise for as a big jump to occupy this area. we don't even others didn't even even attend it. so

i want for the people to understand, to what extent the administration, you know, i mean, is corrupted, that they are ready to sign the treaty with someone that someone is not there. they're not even present in this new york, she ation. so they, you and you're not sure they gave up on territories to as a bit. john, for an exchange of what for this is david question. up until this moment, armenians are only losing, losing politically, losing financially using a geographic and everything. not getting anything in return. so i think the window armenians a close brushing and a traitor. they have all the rights to describe him in that way because the, the duty of any leader is towards the chair and take care of the, the interests of their own people. before thinking about what the, the french or the americans or the russians would expect from you. and you might your opinions, the meanest expect from pushing in to protect them,

protect their interests, and also protect the territories which pressing on. it seems he's not ready to do so. wow. okay. so things pushing on just rolled over and seated. art socket. sounds like so final thoughts here on, on where this might all lead. do you foresee any lasting piece here? how well thank you, wes, way in on this matter. so i don't see that the piece would prevails in the agent any time soon. i do believe that as a pitch on and tricky, they still have a lot in their hands to to reach and to for example, they want to open this corner door between knocking chip on a bitch on which practically means between truck and also a bridge on it and they're going to do, which will force they're going to attack solver and arming antennae. toby, as they will construct this without force forcibly, uh and uh,

fetching and really not to be able to do anything. because as i mentioned to you over the last his allies in the region who are ready to at least diplomatically wait in and try to stop the invasion of the page on your side. because under c, s, t, or the csp, or has the obligation for protect armenia, but it might open an in the next few weeks. we would see that the pushing on would withdrawal from the c s. u. and he was tried deals with the american side. but the americans, i'm not going to weigh in because they have also the interesting opening these routes between us that you have on and we azerbaijan, because people need to understand the trick you. despite this differences with united states, it's still a natural country. and america sees trinity as an important player in the region and truly do sit out and they want to extend their influence to the caspian sea and to extended produce a central asian central asian congress because i could stop took, it, took manage time to punch it gets done and this is the sanction borders of restaurant, which means computing

a restaurant in someone's there and also tried to destabilize the go down to initiative there, which also passes towards this, this region. so i think the next big conflicts are going to happen in central asia, unfortunately, and we're not going to see um, peace on security anytime soon. because until the formation of the month i boulevard, we will see that the americans are we'll try to defend of their uni puller work order in order to please a reserves their hedge, a monic status. but the he said, we have a history told us something that all the empires come and go and a pastoral long circle. and in my opinion of the americans can let's a slow down the crumbling of the you and your puller words, but they cannot stop it. and i think the chinese unto your passion alliance will bring an end to it. it's just a matter of time. and we only have to see when is this going to happen,

where during a decade or 2 or 3? my estimates that we will see arise of a mazda full of words in a short, a time that we expect or dependent to expect could work on life, and always appreciate your insight on this region of the world. thank you so much for being with us. you can find more from come work at seriana dash analysis dotcom . all right, that's going to do it for this episode of modus operandi. the show that dig deep into foreign policy and current affairs. i'm your host, noah. cham, thank you so much for tuning in. we'll see you again next time and figure out the m o, the

the as we started the year 2024, it's fair to ask whether we're approaching another world war. indeed one could make the case. the 3rd world war has already begun to flash points are obviously prey and gaza. there's no denying western germany is being challenged and had 2 months, never willingly horsepower the

the at least 11 people are reportedly injured and the suspects isn't gas explosion. it's a hotel in fort worth, texas you an agency decries those assaults around all our stuff, us consult with sparks and evacuation of one of the few medical facilities and still operating in central gaza, also the yours. those are both the streets of germany, where large crowds of farmers work roads to protest the government's funds, to slush agricultural subsidies. and for this on june, bill clinton on said richard robinson among the prominent figures.