the joseph knife, while the dean of the hobbit kennedy school is credited within venting the time. soft power is a just look at life in the american century is like a who's who of level of security powers who charts his rise to become charity usa is national security council. the assistant secretary at the pentagon. he joins me now from cambridge, massachusetts. thank you. so much for of us and i for coming on before we get to the book, i suppose i better off give a briefly about who you think would win a war with a wrong given that to the debate right around the world. and obviously, especially here in the middle east. well, it depends what one means by winning a war. and i think you'd find broad losses on both sides, but american power versus a rating and power. and the simple term, it's not a question, but who will pay what cost is a more difficult person to figure out? and people are suddenly looking to the, by the administration to understand that cost daily you. uh,

you helped expand the harvard kennedy school. clearly from this book you show how have you worked on that but is, and i have to say some of the donors are associated with a back end israel, israel soft power gone. now these pictures are beaming all around the world, let alone the us as of power given to the entire international community is watching as the nature of power is back and um, to the teeth, the this alleged and the side as well. i wouldn't say it's gone uh, but it has been dented or damaged. oh, i think one of the dangers is it was defense secretary lloyd austin, put it uh you can win a battle and lose a war. and now there's some of the terms of tactical successes of these release of demonstrating that they have a good deal of capability. but in terms of a soft

r and the ability to attract others, i think the disproportionate number of casualties of gaza has indeed damaged their soft power and washington's soft power in recent years let alone the gaza as well as if it did again. i, i think the american sauce power has been damaged by the disproportionate the killing of civilians in the gauze of war. uh, vitamin is plead for the israel east is take a more measured approach, but it's there still damage to americans. sauce power. on the other hand, if you look at american soft power over the years, it, it goes up and down. i mean, sauce power is the ability to get what you want through attraction,

rose and coercion or payment. and there are times in the past where americans, soft power has been very badly damaged short examples in the 19th sixty's. there were protests around the world against the vietnam war, but by the 1980s the american positions were, had recovered. similarly, i think you see americans soft power damage uh after the rock and taishan. uh, but then when obama is elected, recovers its damaged again by trump. recovers somewhat with bite. and uh, so the, the in this can be ascertained by the, on the public opinion polls the po, trust, trump, is the jumps leading in those opinion polls. right. so looks like no, no i, i, yeah, no i, that's a question or will it be come back that if he does, that would have a severe negative effect on american soft power. but i meant if you,

if you look at public opinion, polls it a company like pew has done asking people, i hate 27 different countries, whether they found america or china more attractive. basically the americans come out ahead, i'd say good a is $25.00 of the 2070 countries. so american soft power goes up and down. it could be dented. on the other hand, in comparative terms, is still relatively strong. yeah, paradoxically, that same view. paul also said the united states was a big threat. they so the us is a threat of i understand, i mean, you wrote in 2015 that but global futures is the american century over and you were quite sanguine. you were looking at the idea that actually you look at history and you see people for how to prematurely predict the end of american. uh oh, sorry, any m. hi. whether it be british or any,

any of you don't think you're gonna have to revise that off to ukraine. it's not after you create. i think i revise that is a trump is a lift gate in november. i think he will do severe damage to american power, but remember that a lot of countries, sauce power to attractiveness comes from it. civil society not just from is government. government does broadcasting and has policies and those can affect detract witness. but um, if a country has a vibrant civil society that attracts others, it's better able to recover. i think back to mean hot hollywood in science are hollywood in the science, but also things like the civil rights movement in the, in the sixty's. the people were marching in the streets around the world to protest

american government policy in c. it. um, but they weren't sending the communist international. they were singing martin luther king's, we shall ever. com, which is an anthem from the american civil society. so i think in the, in that sense of asking is there resilience and terms of ability recover? i think there's still a good deal resilience in american civil society. maybe because vietnam speech wasn't broke as why these guy have a dream is we to no, no is go back to this new book. you knew stanley johnson, he was a regular on this program at oxford. and you say in the book you had shocked his son became prime minister. what do you make of the evidence that suggests he was sent to destroy a negotiated ukraine piece made in turkey. i just, i just don't have any evidence or i the answers. i don't know that i shouldn't speculate what i would i really agree. yeah, but i mean,

having said that in the actual book when it comes to ukraine, and i mentioned this because clearly us sanctions have ad. well, they have the opposite effect. they've the west and the economies of western europe . of the global south is a clearly ignoring nature, western europe and the united states views on uh, on what happened in ukraine. but in your book, you pay 345. i think you say at a meeting at the kennedy school in 2014 economy is equal you against the wall inclusion was disillusioned by the west. well, how is the 2014 maiden qu wasn't when we had victoria newland, and the league phone call saying she was picking up who is going to run the run the country. i'm just surprised about how you company, ukraine, in this latest bully. you said 3 fourths of pastry voice, i'm putting it agreed to receive virus. thoughts named the mentor process, but it was not clear whether it would be worth much as we found in 2022. you know

that that means the process is unanimously adopt as un security council resolution 2202. but it didn't prevent the russian storm and fading ukraine. and trying to essentially take over the country of people say this as a result of the americans expanding data or not to conciliate, improved adequately. it's important to read what read of broke about ukraine in before he dated in 2021. he basically doesn't accept ukraine is legitimate, independent state, and he talks about ru skeet mirror the russian world. and ukraine is part of that and he will control it. and i, it's so in that sense, whatever the merits and the merits of a 2014 and the russian invitation to the don boss and crime. and then

uh, i think it had more roots in what was going on in keys in the efforts to the of, of popular demonstration to get rid of a repressive. uh the government. then it did to, it was pressure, but pressure. i saw it is thread and invaded. and then in this process suggested that that could be a point of stability. russia taking what it already had, but in the february of $22.00 poor besides, he wanted more than he is dated. and that's, i am going to just the drew up there. that's not really the case is if you have a picture of yourself with the angle a month, or you have a picture with bank of america in the new book don't here. and you know what? i'm going to, michael said, yes, he said that the minutes process was delaying tactic. so nato could, um, ukraine,

this is about nato expansion is a and i mean, on the food end point about the way to ukraine, that's won't be debated as to whether that's boots in the crying these deals. you know, i think if you look back, you'll see that there was a pretty broad consensus in you, even they, to a countries that ukraine was not about to be accepted into data. 2008. there was a question of ukraine joining nato. i think that was the other european countries, like britain and france and others were not, would not have allowed that of. and i think the prove this invasion was a threat to a software country in the countries at the show called global south. or realize that the un charter,

which protects countries against the kind of invasion that russia had using their interest to see this simply as a european conflict, is a great mistake. the canyon delegation to the united states got this right. quite soon afterwards. they said, this is a problem for all of us by population that general assembly resolution, because i didn't get them. majority is that those who favored russians view on these things that said, immediately afterwards, there was sanctions on russian composes in new york, valet stores, russian literature in the west in europe. you think they read your work on soft power and took a do far. would be okay with the bizarre, the process of banning all things russian in nato countries. well, i think the idea of going on with business as usual with russia after russia violated

are the basic norms of the international system that you don't take your neighbors territory by force was an appropriate way of saying signaling that this behavior was unacceptable. i think if you look at the details, you'll see that some russian artist and composers and so forth who were willing to distance themselves from nyman check off ski and bush can and does be epsky. no, no, i'm talking about temporaries that uh, so there were some artist who said we don't support that. they were a continued to be in the repertoire. but uh, i mean, you seem to be acting as so or asking questions is so is not guilty of a basic violation of a critical norm since 1945. and i think you're just wrong. professor joseph nile,

stop you that more from the former dean of the harvard kennedy school and all of the new book of life in the american century after this price the the,

the welcome back to going on the right. now i'm still here with professor joseph. nice. who medina, the harvard kennedy school, and what are the new book i live in the american century? present? i, we, and about one talking about the norms established off to 1945. of course, the russians would say, i think they are, i've been saying in the world cool that they were trying to protect russian

speakers in the east and ukraine, but on the broad a point. and even the pressure was in the wrong 2 wrongs wouldn't make a right. your book is full, your new book of uh, of, of, in the side lines. violations of those norm. since 1945, only thing. i mean, clearly at all we was, i mean, you go all the way back to vietnam, but the so many violations of any kind of norm that any, uh, any, uh, non line country would recognize as being in the you in charge. you would need right now, the united states is backing the alleged genocide in gaza or in israel set and these and the acting in any norm establish often $9045.00 and is indeed in violation of course have so many resolutions as indeed there has been violations but notice that in a book like mine, a life and the american sentry published in the united states, i am able to criticize american violations such as the invasion of iraq in russia.

i couldn't do that. and uh, indeed, that being the cases of the fact that them, john lives in nato countries are not able to report and joins are allowed from west and media into russia. but you actually speaking about freedom, you speak, you know, mentioned julian, it's on, you mentioned edward snowden in your book, were you shocked by the revelations that angular michael, as i said, the picture of you and her in the new book, that the national security operators in your country was bugging the chancellor of yours was powerful economy. well, i think that was a mistake and i think it's pretty why did recognize now, but it has nothing to do with my reading anger with merkel at a harvard commencement ceremony. but us surprised that that was going on. it was, yeah, i thought i thought the that the uh the people in the, in a say,

what does it had more sense than to do that? because it is surprising, given you invented the terms of how you're credited with that. you know, mentioned julian, this on you, of course, there's a case coming up at the end of february now and he, he exposed so many details of as you would put it, violations of any norm since 1945 and, and all that information is there on the internet for the whole global. so to watch it has huge soft power, like the famous video of the john was being gone down there. rock as well. i means i don't mention julian massage there. many others don't mention on both sides. many issues of the editor took out a lot of material from the book and wanted to keep it short. so i to 0 to the question to julian and san shopping in the index. it's kind of irrelevant. i only just man mention it because you mentioned freedom and the freedom to expose more

crimes. and in the, in this case a salt and but said the other day that they have more money wasn't given just the landscape view nato couldn't to, to china. well, what do you think he meant by that? especially in the light of a work you've done, which doesn't seem to show any desire by china. and you met many of our officials over decades to invade weston, to you who are a well it, it, a she g pain has said that he liked the people's liberation army to be able to re capture type one, which they regardless renegade province by 2027 and many people who feared that china would indeed tried to use force to rely unified ty, one with china. and after the failure of who

is invasion in ukraine, many people in china in into the reach of the station regions said this shows that the type of vision that people are feeling on taiwan would be too risky to experience it. if putting sale with the land based evasion are certainly right next door, the try to go a 100 miles over the sea with a sea based invasion is of much higher risk instead of changing paint cares more than anything else about his control with the communist party and the company as far as control of china, a failed invasion of taiwan. this is the biggest risk you could take face. so i think that's the type of thinking that's i don't know what store we've had in mind, but that's the kind of thinking people say that the,

what happened to ukraine also has an effect on what risks are taking in east asia. i want to go back to china, but you mentioned failure rusher categories of hasn't failed. it has killed loads of nazis and so on. and i mean, this is the financial times this week. i am after double as rush has growth up. look, as ukraine was, stimulates economy, i'll put in russia to rise, impact of western sanctions and banks, post ridgewood prophets. so from russia's perspective, they've strengthened the brick since china i cooperation, organization of strength and ties with china and the global south countries. and their economy is booming, while western europe's is declining. how is russia losing? well, i think if, if you look at the sanctions, they have a b, a take different effect on different periods and turn time the mediator affective sections after the evasion or a drop in the value of russian stocks, you know,

for the ruble and so forth. and then you have the, the sanctions have the effective what you might call into the industry turf. they lead to production at home of the goods that are deprived from abroad. and i think around russia benefited from that in the woods when i called the medium term, as well as the tech support. so boil, which remained in demand. and then a question for russia and for others is what happens over the long run in the user or media gone. it's true that russia has had certain benefits strongly into an industry terrace, affects the long run their to private and themselves from sources of technology in europe, which are going to be a central for their accomplishing what they need to do,

which was joined the 4th industrial revolution, if you look at question, today's 2 thirds of its exports are in oil and gas, and it is not made the kinds of conversations that are needed to really join the information revolution. question, i think the russians have to ask themselves is if they stay isolated from europe and america, are they going to have a, it's good to technological future. you can say, well, they'll get that from china, but then they're in the past. so becoming a, uh, like a satellite of china. my understanding is, yeah, the scholarly papers are now being published increasingly and in bricks, countries over western europe. and as i said, west and your economically seems the why do you seem to be in, in decline? you do say in the book that it was wrong of uh, a bomb to put

a red line on chemical weapons in syria. but now we have so much more information about whether aside actually use chemical weapons. why in your book, are you saying absolutely he did use chemical weapons when that accounts as being the defunct, by so many including the o, b c, w whistle by the weapon section. it's not at the bucking, but there's evidence that the assad did indeed use chemical weapons. so i don't know what you're talking about. so you have never heard any of the evidence that mean there. the so much being written that this moment and you say definitely the biggest problem was syria, way about your as it is, use chemical weapons when when that that's a lot to think big for pockets. you can find a lot of arguments on the internet about anything but to the preponderance of

evidence from reliable sources is that i saw i did the jewish chemical weapons. and if you don't believe that, what's the matter with the sources of information you're getting? yeah, i look at all, all the different sources and not just sources that are, say, nature of nation publications. you say the presidential briefing that's given to joe biden, every day. you talk about how a lot of it could just be in the, in the mainstream, in the new york times, or something that's given to the president and how important uh, information is in the public realm. and there's not that much extra in the in tell you suggest in the book as well as didn't to give you an example of what's called open source and intelligence, meaning what's in the press, what's on the internet. so for i is very important part of what should be in a briefing uh notches secrets and uh,

in an information age open source is becoming more, more important. and in that open source intelligence as well and see good intelligence. there's evidence by the international chemical weapons association, which of unit that comes under the united nations. the side used chemical weapons. yeah, actually i meant the o, b c, w whistle, but it has come forward since then. but what about the dangers of a feedback loop? then if things are being leaks to john, listen, so cool, mainstream newspapers then that's being fed back to president bible. there's just a feedback loop being created. that doesn't allow other pieces of information to come in, like say a zalinski has no hope of this counter offensive, or i said, we'll stay in power despite the american bombing of damascus. well, good intelligence presents alternatives,

and the alternatives can to the person that we are alternatives should sensually ask what's in the open source, what's in the secret sources and how do you wave them. but in terms of the profit abilities of the alternative, explanations and scenarios, in that sense, the open source helps you with beating the, the mainstream press. how to check against some of those things that are in your secret sources. but not if uh, if i know you quote uh chomsky in your 2015 book, if uh if the drums get an idea about manufacturing consent to holds true just before. finally, if trump forgets in which he looks at to get in, whether it's from jail or whatever, he suddenly writing, i'm the, and the american people want them to be president of going to opinion both of you expect them to and they to and what does that mean for the united states as well.

first i think it's not at all clear to trump is going to get in the polls that one sees at this time are to some extent, not a good indication of the outcomes november. most people don't really pay attention to elections until after labor day, which is in september. so i don't, i don't think that some of these early polls are accurate in terms of assessing whether trump or by when in, in november. i don't think the trump is go to come back, but if i'm wrong and trump does come back to, i think we'll have a negative effect on american alliances and american sauce power in like manner include, we can you give nate to bassinet is passed a resolution saying that trump or any president cannot withdraw from data without a consent of the senate,

but he could simply refuse to to spend money. which was it is within his progress with that of course would have a severe damage the present. i thank you. thank you. and that's it for the show of continued condolences to those of iving beginning and gaza. the new book, a life in the american century, is up now will be back on monday, with a former leading contender to be president of ecuador, now supporting his reyland, sending weapons to the laskey in ukraine, after betraying julian hassan. just political asylum until then. keep in touch firewall that social media of it's sort sense of deal country and i do i channel going. undergoing tv. i normally don't come to watch new and old episodes of going undergrad to month. the . there's no end in sight over how you're going to continue to destroy the earth.

is the case for the med, most of the people. i tried to go to the gym, but i'm certainly not ready to fight russia. this is also of soon. this is the 3rd world lunacy re washing as for so the funder line likes to say, we have the tools while we just start with stability and business deals to be living online. we have very quick propaganda. you know, a price here in new york. i think we don't know the aftermath any time that you're not allowed to ask questions, you should ask all of the questions. the more questions ask the better the answer is will be the buyer has to guess to do president this event, excuse himself, is basically delusion and that he has become drunk with his own rhetoric as well as flats or visa to use to receives from the rest i think this has read it to range to minutes a bit disturbed his relationship to reality is true about everyone around him. i can't imagine the,

the, the, the u. s. claims its promoting fees by shipping the pod as, as missiles rings out on 85 targets in iraq, syria, 5 god, restrictions stupidity in the region to red crescent says one of his walker has been killed along with 3 dependents in his range, setting up the southern thoughts and city of ton unit on the on the boils in argentina as needs clash with protesters outside parliament as a sweeping rip boonville by the country.