is thank you very much for your time. thanks for inviting me. now we are now approaching the 2nd anniversary of the russian military operation in the ukraine and erode recently the tone of western discussions on the possible outcomes or the possible progress of this conflict has started to change in what way. and what do you think is behind a change? i think it's clear that i'm be now see, much more from acknowledgement of the fact that russia is making progress. but if you want to put advice strongly, i think some people are even beginning to be honest enough, for instance, is starting to focus on visiting it that it to say is a few crane. as long as things are more yes, i agree with that. we are hearing some voices of caution, but i think for the most part, the american uh, and your crane in leadership for sure. a still a speaking in favor of continuing this conflict until and ukraine regains its

former territories or as they like to put it on to put in is defeated. do you think either side believes that they can achieve that goal? in objective terms? i mean, in logistical terms, do they have enough resources to give their, regarding the ukrainian leadership? i wouldn't be able to, to, i have to guess that the president savanski himself is basically doing what was you know, and that he has become drunk on his own rhetoric. as well as the flats of use that to use to receive from the rest. i think this has made it to range to minutes of it and disturbed his relationship to reality is true about everyone around him. i can't imagine that so the appropriate people in ukraine will also have a better grasp of free entities. indeed us, but they can't speak up yet right now concerning the best. my guess is that quite a few people in washington and in the us where understand so that's it has to go

out of this more this out of us than defeat. now do they understand already how much they are going to have to concede? again, i contents funds, thing that i think is behind this ongoing talk about be the still continues supporting and so on. so on about 20 flow or even $25.00 being madison. i do think it's part of you in negotiating tactic to essentially and not shows of us inside weakness and montana sort of flip level against the dresser. basically saying, we are ready to be due for the if the house to do, if we lose more as well as your bus even comes up with some of these paper, i'm sure by now is a body and then ship it. when i read the western and russian analysis of, of this course like this, sometimes you get a sense that the russian ukraine and ukraine supported by the west. they are not only fighting totally different wars, but they are sort of leave in very different centuries that they use very different

frames of reality for analyzing what's happening on the battlefield. and what's necessary to keep this war going because you mentioned bleeding an adversary. this is something that just doesn't happen just in words. i mean you need the resources unit to strategy. in order to do that. i wonder if your share this perception and if so, why do you think? what do you think explains this huge difference in assessment because after all, military science is, is a science and the, some of the generals who are making the decisions, they're still, they shouldn't be basing it on some objective, facts and measures. in terms of the american leadership and especially, was quote abortion blogs to people said public and government part. they think things popular other offices and who read it together somehow into fine american foreign policy. i don't think they live in another century. i. i think they live in and i was at the cate is actually of the lives of 19 nineties. they have come to be

explicit about the fact at least the smartest of them that the moment of so called unilateralism has passed. but if you look at the way they actually behave, they don't display any change of behavior and that's, that makes them so rational, right now. the logic point is, i think that, remember that the bins, a large scale was started. a lot of less than projections into you came out, for instance, uncle america backs and said things like the russian president by the, my products, he lives in a different, centrally, he lives in the past. i think that's a fundamental misunderstanding and i wouldn't make this personal. i think that investment leadership extra lives very much as a present as to as the chinese to the dealership. absolutely. the volumes, and many other powers of the positions was actually the best for collective with the americans for their own reasons and us where we are essentially refusing to

drones. i've tried to for centrally, they do not want to make a transition to award and reach the power to be of the deals and in which they really have to live with a much greater number of subs, significant aspects. but they cannot control what opens for. they would, in part, explains this difference in perspectives, is the realist versus ideal as the framework because both china and russia practice reality to take this way out. you know, being rude to that actually in reality and northern what you want to have. but rather what you can practically a 2 man have a question about that because rushes military and diplomatic strategy over the centuries has been uh, favoring a circle position approach that is playing as number 2 or with the black segers in . and she has, and the home or from the strategy is that it doesn't produce spectacular results. but it's very mindful about accumulation and spending of their resources, both demand pack power and the weaponry. and essentially, you know, makes

a bad on exhausting the adversary before. that's adversary exhaust fuel. do you think that's what's going on on the battlefield at this very moment, the long battle that the russia is digging, if hills hope hoping to exhaust, not only its adversary across the border, but the haps, it's adversary across the ocean as well? i think it's clear that the person who's managing has managed to exhaust ukraine. now that isn't such a big surprise to feel honest, because versa is demographically a must speak the country and not very much has started this a stronger ami. also the used surprising the little of it initially, but the other thing i think drove sitting right, that's also happening and this is going back to the house of us responded, is the site is now also exhausting the west and you see it the ends of ways the west from ons production for example, the simply cannot catch up,

although they have to clear that a several times and they're still declaring it. but this seems to be a fundamental problem. i think was underneath all of this is that the best doesn't have states that are strong enough. and also it has such a financial allies, virtual allies, the economy, that when it came to the crunch to actually gets track stories is going and makes things the experience astonishing difficulties this pretty that was bits promising difficulties. let me add one thing. i think that would be a bad mistake to on the is to it. the west is because that's coupon thing of view. the rest is finding a proxy of all here. it's a catastrophe, which will never, it's happened. it's syndicate. it's hard but, but it is for the best of ones are probably for less, so for your opinions, but the americans have decided please. so let's not conclude that if the rest of the broad and i launch move a conflict, very good. so it's quote would be spent is booked react in the same way that as it

would be going to fall, i be, don't know if as well and hopefully this will not have to learn about it. but speaking about a traditional westminster strategy, as far as i understand it, or at least as far as it's understood here in russia by military historians is that the west traditionally favors uh, an offensive rather than defensive approach favor and smashing blows. blitzkrieg spectacular victories, but it's also quite costly in that it requires a lot of resources and requires you to be in charge of the initiative constantly and if it's quite exhaustive for sure. um and uh, i wonder if, uh, i wanted to how do you understand the strategy that both the west and ukraine i'm now trying to execute on the battlefield 2 years into this confident because clearly the beliefs greek, the effort to stifle russell by section didn't work what is the strategy that they're pursuing at this moment?

but it seems to be a saying that often has finally been fully acknowledged that the condo francisco, the summer has not worked for legal canyons. the sort of an absurd blitzkrieg scenario. blitz creek with all the necessary resources, right. and it fades after that has been acknowledged. and i hope to hear that that info some sort of long, whole, some defensive operations digging themselves and much more. and in fact copy and so most of us and tactics, right? so i think the problem say is that the fall to exhausted for this to work. this might have been a violent strategy for your client if they have taken it from the beginning. but they have wasted so much, even with them that was successful in terms of getting territory. but last year in a hockey for how it goes around target from august. even then they've raised that so much manpower and weapons and ammunition and so on, that they let them substrate. so this, this shift,

how's it be here about 2 defensive strategy? i think it's too late. i think it's testing today. now, speaking about the exhaustion that you mentioned, western strategist historically, as may have been quite instrumental with that allies when an asset, a geopolitical asset, turns into high ability. the americans usually have little qualms about withdrawing or abandoning it altogether. i think it's happened in clear sight and i've gotten a son in the arrived before to some extent in. uh, syria. is it likely to happen in ukraine? i think that it's likely to happen if the next president it might happen earlier. if, if the is a sucking bus in advance, for instance. but if the next president is donald trump, into the document, behalf of my doesn't quite quickly. and if the next president is again, joe biden, for some reason i can't really imagine that i think he doesn't stand a chance. not then i think and, but also have, i think steven board is what i to about to do is just publish the piece and phone

policy ways. that's the bone 3 months of a difference. the reason bye button isn't doing up not always because he's the, as the electronics i have, but yes, the drop, you're fine. this raises another pretty dangerous, but those are because i think there is an additional security advantage to both russia in europe to kim, this war going at a low to medium intensity because it keeps all the weapons that have been sent to ukraine from all over the west, in or around the battle felt like they are sort of concentrated and they're being used for the war effort. but once, uh, that constraint is not there. there is a huge risk of illicit weapons trade. and i'm pretty sure that the russians uh, with the put in vigilant uh, security the apparatus, uh, cognizant about that. right. but do you think your opinion leaders are equally aware of the, of the blue rag? the fact that the oldest weaponized ation of your brain may bring to their

doorsteps. i don't know, i, i, they slipped me and it's not on the weapons, right. let's don't forget that, but the rest has done in your brain and it has, as we say, normalize a file, right? very aggressive far, right? there's a stream there, militant, they're both very reluctant before the last it works. and once you're trained to be treated in some ways, essentially like a found this donna are as follows with non goes treated in that state, right? the ends of it being, i just want to go back and you finance will be angry. not only about the on the those that may be angry, this the so called our eyes who have a view step. and i think this is what the rest has done to them. they've also still be angry before. so for very long time, i think you shouldn't have any of those. and so frustrating soft or the enemy ends of all. but if it'd be right in groups of us, that's fine. well, professor murphy have to take a very short break right now, but we will be back in just a few moments station. the,

the other way, not the right it says the brother

printer was up in there so. so just so please papers with me. your last name was name is reed, i was confused, assisting you much, and we have some most most expensive for someone who is this, we would show new people to the, the the welcome back to when to part with teddy serial amar,

associate professor at the courts university in symbol. now professor armoire, the most painful thing about this more for me at least, and i have in ukrainian heritage is that, is that really didn't have to happen. at least not for the direct participants. because i, i strongly believe that russia and ukraine could have settled their insecurities and their interest in and negotiate a peaceful manner. they were all the objective preconditions for that. there were even talks in, in turkey, in the beginning of this conflict when everything was possible, and yet, uh, the war efforts continued. because at least i believe that to be the case because of the interest of the west and sponsors of this, of this conflict. and this is what i want to ask you about. do you agree with that? and if so, what do you think is the primary objective of the west in this war hasn't been satisfied so far? i'm sorry, i didn't agree. i think the roots of the board really

a good back to 2008. the infamous because summit, when goes georgia and ukraine, but foot by the west dentist and same position of the same one that you're going to be a nato. but not now, which of course expose them and made sense to that's for russia and phones that it's sort of spawn itself out. and by the time you go to the 201314 prizes, all of this became very if you would for ukraine. them many gone was a smaller agreement, but main stores of actual text, most definitely a basis for forgetting autos this peacefully. it was not only a band and of a cyber cost estimate, but i don't know. and also i don't think anybody treatments to vary, but i have long to the conclusion that the best estimate treated at west end to your claims in dealership. right. so then the nicholas headphones and, and the list and in turkey, it be now know that there was a very serious chance of endings of one of them. and that would have faced or

spiritual print. most of it and it could easily have been done now by that the best to all of this. i think for 2 reasons. first of all, it would simply not give up on this idea of expanding natal, which in itself is an insane idea and ukrainian or charlotte and was much better for the countries than engaging but as far as promise. and the 2nd thing i think was it was a long term jew, political strategy of gutting. rational down of taking up out russia has recovered from the 90 ninety's. people in boston did not want to accept that, that sort of situation for verse douglas anomalous. usually russia isn't that week, so the fact that it came back have to be faxed to them. and instead of integrating this reassertion of process of which they were born to repeat this, the right both of us knew those are good sets. they counted it before blond policy of trying to take question that down wrong or even to not just to make it

a much less significant power honestly. so straight to estimate was a stronger in effect, and i think it's, it's well into the american strategy that you have been describing. and one of your articles, you said that the america, the american leadership historically, has had this unique ability to disturb peace due to, uh, it's an extraordinary concentration of economic and military capabilities. but my question to you is whether if can actually fide ward reward if push comes to shove, the united states has to face russia or china directly, not to be a proxies but directly do you think it would be able to stand as ground with its current law will also military capacity with its current level off by searching your capacity and with all the other capabilities that it has, its, its disposal. if i have to speak to that, i would say, uh if i bought it into my computer. so i was waiting on tests that because look the,

the last 4 that americans have actually experienced in their own country, most of the american civil war and everything has their fault of rules. it's been an offshore balance, so they go to other places and break them. that's what they do. and usually they do it. but for an in the most minute try and super. all right, you will have that appointment so that it's, i'm sorry to use this term, but usually the extra to tucker shops, right. and the only thing that gets in the way, i sometimes get rid of the contents and sometimes meeting on a bus that is big enough to actually push them back, which is happening all the promotions. none of this, however, is as painful as a large scale war against po competitors, the americans left to clarify so near peter competitor. and i understand that in certain metrics they can reason that that's the case. but if you really look at what most i can do, if it's means by mountains, you're getting a demonstration of the, it's a pure competitor. and so i, i,

i would not try that. i would if, if the us but, but we don't know because my sense is that'd be, cannot rely on american best finality. i think the american leadership is not very low intellect to forward it to you. and again, i don't mean just as an insult. i mean that as a description they, um, i extreme, yeah, geologist, they vermont their science and dr night it's a refuse to engage with the reality or support it can be count on them understanding that such a big what essentially what, what would be self destructive for them even before nuclear weapons, even with all those being used. i don't think they can count on that to, to migrate from aggressive to say that the 1st time or this is it has very as serious question because aaron guns coupled with uh, insurance. uh they, they do produce a very detrimental results and you suggested that this declining american empire declining not only in terms of fits and military resources,

but as you mentioned in terms of it's called native abilities. and i think we can see it on all levels included in presidential, it represents and your challenge for the international system due to both it's of central size and it's somewhat or quite irrational behavior. how do you think this challenge should be or managed, in order to on the one hand, minimize this disruptive, deliberately disruptive and seating k of potential or capacity of the united states . but on the other hand, to hopefully encourage washington to act in a more dishes in life affirming or progress affirming way, ideally, uh by stop deterrence. i think the united states needs to be contained in detroit. but this is ironic because the united states of course, sees that serve as a country that contains into church. it's greatest adverse survey and peace. i'm all as piece of the soviet union until the ground. i seem to have long reached the

stage of history, but other powerful states, those with nuclear weapons have to contain deters united states. and they really have to vote in the very blogs, but precisely because the united states doesn't react to certain statements anymore . i think it has to be done very, very crudely as a 1st time during the cold war. but this time is the biggest problem. most of what i'm really convinced of this is the united states. that doesn't mean every single, it'd be fine. once the united states becomes a smaller and less aggressive power by the opposite. but right now, for the next, i don't know decay tools. what else? our biggest problem as a state is still not that states. the single biggest problem is this. think the greatest potential to do an immense from, to all of humanity. now taking advantage of you uh, being a historian, i do want to ask you is how much the little circle question about history? because to some extent, the current, the american poster is

a stance against history or against the very nature of humanity. and they're sort of in a very good and like way they're trying to freeze the moment because supposedly it's so beautiful for them. even though, i mean, if you talk to regular americans, i don't think they would actually agree with that the, that the assessment. but that's, you know, itself is a pre k remarkable. i believe that somebody, a nation, even the most powerful nation can stop the flow of history. you mentioned the soviet union, and it's a, you know, it's treated with degrees and the pores in the west. but even the soviet union was based on the idea of development and utopia, and it will just stop in development. but um, you know, the developments and on the last, what do your thing behind these drive to sort of put an ad to history and to freeze the historical development of the entire human race at a point that favors and suits the americans,

the st. the deep actually lots of goods. i think america is actually a very i go home to call if you want. it's not just the country, it's a sort of civilization. right. and it's not aware of that, right? because for americans, they think i do all it is or the solve a school staff, or maybe the most career has knowledge is if a state as well and you want to find your logic and that'll be a book that's all laid down. indoctrination will be very open, so america is extremely audiological and it is steep in a set of values that do not function but any more and there's a conflict between these values and the rest or not the whole rest but, but the large part of, of those other inhabitants of the planet by the rest of us. and america, solution to this is to impose itself and it's very, that's what's called privacy rights. that's why there was talk of american financing. america is not yet ready. i. i see very, very little of an awareness of the fact that the united states can be plus plus.

and it can be sufficiently powerful under could pick hills on this new judgment interest in the voice chat with others who are truly different. they don't see the board like that, i, i'm sorry to put and so forth. but american who needs see the board as a place that must be constantly of a shape not only to a politically that's a given, but even a logically. so that by changing the blue, they make it safe was their way of life, and this mother then no longer work because the power is declining. and if they fight against this change, then you're all in grave danger. i think that's what if you all walk us right now, you mentioned the issue of values and some in russia. a tribute, this american drive to for his history to be loss of the say, crow whether in the form of religion or in the form of traditional or collective values that you know and, and this increasing tools towards

a very individualistic or i would say narcissistic world view, and there's this idea that there's nothing above man that the ma'am can be fully in control of everything else. and i want to ask you as a historian, not as a person of the face or believe what was the historian when you look up the historical process and always continue to do you ever get the sense of the inexplicable of something that is perhaps beyond human control of some patterns that you know, inspire or look i can figure but i'm speaking from the 1st from doing the story. i was very just as a roman catholic and but now i'm relapsed roman catholic, but you never really stop being, but it's impossible. but i do have such a sense and i tell my students about it, and i can give you a very concrete example. the more we learned about the cold war between say, 4799 and the last century. the more i try,

my students is the more intakes divine intervention for us to still be here it was such a close one think it was not very managed events or at least $3.00 to $4.00 extremely dangerous devices. but it's basically america that didn't stop shooting nuclear weapons of each other, right? you can talk to us now. um, i have somebody to easily explain, vibrant, didn't buy each other out, or at least stop human civilization. performative fuel, you know, native and freezing. somebody goes left, but somehow this happy, i'll get going to be that lucky the next time if you keep tempting fate or whatever it is, i don't think this can be done for i, but at some point, as a spaces we really but have to look it up on like, well, i'm the, we have history for that, but history that i think the latest years has been true. the in the west more as a material or a products in the very consumers way rather than something that you know,

needs also to be treated with the degree all 5 really josephine. it sounds that you don't temper that you've tried to learn from it, but you don't try to bend that to your to and professor mart. this is all we have time for, but thank you very much for this inspiring conversation, at least towards the divine intervention of with north abandon this last time. thank you very much. thank you, and thank you for watching types of sharing guns on was a part of the news already. those old line is can be cited by lawrence. please can be

satisfied for the importance of we can never be of a station so that transparency is extraordinary. john mystic patrice then just succeeded in finding the documents that existed in making them available to lead was public. that means what could be more moving box by publishing information and sharing information with the public. he was exercising the right for a speech he did. so in the public interest, so mom realized tends to me uh and, and honestly think of late continuously. i know why advice may assume that no one who is the guy that illegal anymore wisely bought the adjustments for to be on box weighing a 175 used to go through the sentence. all we going to let that stay

the though is this uh most good kids is the west of one to send a into an inside us attack on the bakery and this is done. so i kind of think of the lease of the warranty service i would kind of dozens more remain, swapped another of the escalation. i'm still the, the, all the power aim of the latest 36 strikes on is the 12 years in yemen of the washington or the thousands of these ways on the thing you are going to step down to move the administration's failure to bring back. also here's how viable.