the, the, [000:00:00;00] the, [000:00:00;00] the, the welcome to into part, training territory, total security or additions for peace allows things, settlement of finger printing and conflict with required, different given takes from each of the parties. but 1st, they would probably have to part spend on sense of righteousness does the

historical moment or the nature of this conflict allow for this or to discuss that . i'm now joined by jeffery roberts emeritus professor of history of the university college park. professor roberts is always a great pleasure, personal, a pleasure to talk to you. but on top of that, i'm far to in the some academic exchanges between western and russian scores continue as this crisis continues to escalate. where do you think we are in uh in this the battle of what stage? uh the conflict tests taken. i think um my, my, my car in for you is over and we're in a very dangerous not much. yeah. the danger royce, this is the same thing. you said last time, we talked the way it's actually for districts, god bless. you have multi just yes, because the closer but the ukraine comes to the fate of the most desperate potentially reckless the west is again about powerful um, extreme. his voice is uh, becoming so it is quite possible that that deal. and then we may see some extreme

actions to some postop, ukraine's defense. and then obviously that will be a, a dining drove escalation arising of those actions. what do you to see as potentially extreme actions from the side of the west? because it's clear that the ukraine is becoming more liberal in its open use of terrace tactics. but what about the west? well, i mean though, the token anomaly is the introduction of western troops in some phone. that issue seems to be on the agenda again. there's also i talk about not know slice ons. yeah . old kind of stuff is being be discussed at the beginning of the war and which yeah. west the latest, the refuse to contemplate of that, that time. but that back on the agenda and you know, the but they seem to be, i mean more and we talk about seriously and, and that'd be more multiple patch of sex. now i don't, i don't think the intention of those kind of actions troops on the,

based on the ground or some kind of, um, app our intervention it one bates us a lot precipitated why it was rushed to that won't be the, the intention of goals that will be the danger that they know because obviously rusher, i don't think well will allow that. those actions you, i'd wonder if, if there was some truth on the ground, wherever you crying that will be attacked, but by russia and the same goes for western apples involved now uh, something like this was contemplated 2 years ago. but as you say, it says to have more precious power. i'm all home. i mean it does have have more purchase power and long uh, people at large. and why would that be the case? because i mean, it's pretty clear that whatever west and think there is a strategy, a sort of the russian army 2 years ago. the presuppositions were defeated, the to say the least way. it certainly doesn't have in the purchasing public opinion in the west. the old, if the older public opinion died. so we have, you know, as a suggest to, you know, pop popular opinions,

moving in the direction of a way from one direction of peace in simple some kind of compromise based on what the nights. so particular western countries to do, do something rack those lines just you, it's ok to get more involved threatening cause it's still been a no most kind of like out this the popular opposition, black dress, certainly a restraining factor. so how strong are these voices in favor? of directing french law it's, it's difficult to say, i mean did that, that's beside the law of them at the moment. i mean, there are, there are accounts that there accounts, voices and, but i, you know, i think so, i think it was, we might assist a whole ton of this conflict from the point of view of the west proxy why russia has been a kind of you know persistent escalation, one escalation of the, of a. so they've done it so often it's almost become the actual so i think i, i, i'll be, i'll be shocked. i won't be surprised if i types of escalate. use that. do you take this escalation? as i calculated tactic, in other words, when people uh raise

a bit and to do they actually understand, are they conscious of what they're doing and you know, they possible reply for i, i think is it, it's partly a calculated tactic. i think it's also a very emotionally bice tactics because they've taught themselves into a position. but i basically sums that are right retro it. i really believe that if they lose the ukraine refresher wins and the ukraine is going to be the end of the western world. as we know and you know, eventually they'd be to someone who might want know, it wants no, it wants that. and that's important that we don't to be done actually poly into that that, that disco. so no, no, do you train, you train? what would be a huge blow tonight? so as the west to west stage, it would be critical be cried before hundreds of prices rise. not but no i i think the west of all just we know at night. so we are blessed in palace. i think when we might, unless the wall goes on and on,

this and russia penetrates even multi p to frank rush. it comes to occupy the how the price and the oil continuation of yeah. and that kind of extreme situation. yeah. that then possibly we are looking at the a much more a laptop clip pick out. let's discuss something that you and a number of other western schoolers propose to myself, and that is a compromise to this war. in fact, you suggested in one of your recent articles that budget reports and could stop this war by negotiating a peace deal that includes ukraine's membership of mater. why do you believe that this proposal, which is the underlying premise for, for this call? so it has any complying power not only in moscow, but 1st and foremost in keys and in washington, the if the is going to be negotiated into the peace settlement, then that you got this going to be some kind of western security, a guarantee of was left of the ukraine started off to the wall, right? that's the 1st, but it's got that the 2nd part is that night. so on the west of the politically and

retire, there's hardly a what find it very, very difficult. difficult to back away from accepting you, trying into nights and members, even even under conditions dictated by russia. that's the 2nd. and the 3rd thing um, it is strategically having ukraine in they say what type of advantages from the west and by the beautiful it would mean that you have your trade in lights. i was left of it west, a new crime, preserving like what, what, what, what constitutes some kind of office on with russia. ok. this process would be the militarize zone dominated by say there's no nuclear weapons, all kind of restrictions. but nevertheless, you'd have an independence pro western nathan member viewpoint. actually the public folks that are real kinds of good reasons for so yeah, the west united states and i talked to it except such a deal. now it kept mentioning, this phrase, ukraine or what's left of it. and i think that's the, you know, the, the crux of the problem and a number of russian analysts indirectly driven there because they claim that the,

what's, what is now being decided on the battlefield is where the boundary between russian and west as secure as a parameter will lie, whether it's formal or informal, and clearly a mosque was interested in pushing it further into ukraine. but i'm not sure if the wants to push it as far as, let's say, western ukraine of its very hostile and add to russian population. now, based on history based on the current sentiments where addressing done boundary equity live organically, or if there is such a term as organic boundary between russia in the west. i think as of now the natural boundary would be um, acceptance by you cried in the west of russia, the corporation of crime and until the default before additional provinces. and that in any way, that's the only option at least the call in fost rush. why is that this guy rush,

those, those territories apart? also part of a problem that's the choose you, the so that's that, that, that, that, that's, that's, that's the minimum. how far you go beyond that? yeah, it depends on, on auto, on the war. okay. some people argue that that may be a huge goes far as hawk gulf, as far as a desa. the problem with that is yes, that may will, in a way that may will be a natural cause. he started go cultural political badly, but it will be enormously costly for russia to actually occupied, talk of down to the end, the end of the desa. okay. but the bottom line is, i, i don't see russia expanding any further into your cry done under the need for that . you also suggested that in the criminal record, to contemplate such a concession ukraine. and it's western beckers would have to give a quote, cost iron commitments to ukraine's permanent demilitarization of beat within the

framework of nathan membership. and the 1st of all, i am not sure of the russians believe in any degree of firmness of, uh, quote unquote, with western commitments. but on top of that, you know, demilitarized within the nature of framework, isn't it a bit like, i don't know, it's a writer with wipers, but well behaving. mice, i mean, like even if and ukraine is the militarized and like it's not the ukraine, that is a problem for russia. it's beta. what, what do i do? there is a kind of press of this kind of green because it goes when um, east germany was united with west name became a spell and you have the kind of thought of nights of the agreement was the friend at that point to where it was treated rush hour somebody's unit to base restaurants because only the danger and show up at the pain was that there will be no nights or expansion into each to. i mean, it goes to have light from nature. nature, then expand the trees. joe, do a cause expand it is a voltage state. suppose i have to add another country side for all precedents for the conditions on the one on, on the, on the on lights, those

a night nitrogen expansion. yeah. now i think there is also a more recent precedent that's the support the your case, the case of to our k, a number of freshman leaders, including pointers himself said that having trick is a part of nature is not that bad for russian because it contains that culture, which is an actual competitor, original competitor for russia. and i can see that the logic being applied to your plan. but i struggled to understand why i would made so want uh, you know, drive aged, highly traumatized. uh, very limply angry country or whatever left of it as part of it. so no direct line is the russian important point. the, you know, i think for the russian boy do, it's not ukraine's membership. the site doesn't match at all. i have a match out. it was, it was a nighttime military built up in the use of ukraine as a tool of course. absolutely. so like if you're trying to watch lift, it becomes part of a night of the under different conditions. then it's not such a, it's not such a frightening development, and we asked a question about, you know,

why should this issue of trust? you're looking at the trust cost both why so this is trust issues on both sides. and the only way to, to work through the issue is to after might make, make agreements and see what happens and try to make those agreements. they go through, you know, as the rest of the, like to say, uh, yeah, you know, trust, but very far, but i ask you about the slightly different aspect of it. why would may to want, i mean, i understand native logic of having ukraine as you know, sort of send me affiliated as member of its alliance and using it as a sort of battering ram against pressure. but if they actually have to take responsibility for your cranes, you know, angry intentions for rebuilding it for even providing it with some infrastructure. why would they need and because they're losing all the benefits of their policy. i'm assuming all the cost high. i, i think for political reasons, i mean that that's why i'm not 50 thought. yeah. my eyes. well,

why do i could come forward with this suggestion that you, craig could become a member of night to under certain conditions that could be part of to the i was trying to think of a lie to police equally given the what the west, the way out politically, to back off from, for the threat of the war with russia for of abrupt proxy what that, but that was my kind kind of reasoning. so i think, yeah, yeah, it would pay them no most kind of challenges and almost from all kinds of discussion, i'm sure that we play the voices that we'd like to assign a we shouldn't, shouldn't do this. but i think for political reasons, nights i would find it very different, very difficult to actually turn his back on you crying completely and, and, and refused to, to allow in instant inter membership. yeah. quote, professor over. so i hope you're right on that. but even though i'm, you know, to some extent it's uh, you know, facing the consequences of, of your own polio. you're lying, it's no, i'm not making a prediction error or prophecy. i'm not sure what's gonna happen if i gets, i'm likely. well i, i know what's gonna happen right now because we are going to take

a very short break, but we will be back in just a few moments extension the hi, i'm rick sanchez. and i'm here to plan with you whatever you do. do not watch my new shelves seriously. why watch something that's so different. whitelisted opinions that he won't get anywhere else. welcome to planes or do the have the state department c i a weapons, bankers, multi $1000000000.00 corporations. choose your fax for you. go ahead. i changed and whatever you do, don't my show state main street because i'm probably going to make you

uncomfortable. my show is called stretching time. but again, you probably don't wanna watch it because it might just change the waiting thing. the extra range of parts best. geoffrey roberts, ameritas, professor of history university college park. now professor rubbers before the break, we talked about the russian rationale and they just logic. let's talk about the brain right now. and i think that's a very interesting case study because it's hard to find another country besides a few grand. that's what so eagerly assumed the role of a client states without the goal shading any developmental security guarantees for itself. and i mean, even israel, for example, and other clients they is very showed about um, you know,

ensuring its own base. but the frame sort of threw himself into the western embrace completely without the, you know, asking actually from watch how do you understand the calculus of kids here? yeah, i did. it is, this is the most difficult off at 6 most difficult for me. i mean for you to once, that is why you crime shows because it did add on what still chooses to fight to for, to fight on. it obviously is to do with the power of ukrainian nations. i mean, did you motional power as well as the political 5 you for international? that'd be one thing. i think secondly, there was this cuz fife police in the west, in west sensible. i mean, i mean, west and power so that i persuaded themselves that i could, they could, they could win this war in some, uh, its in some form. okay. and now having tried that, actually effectively. last,

last of all that just um they just playing on the and waiting for something, something, something, something happened something to, to, to turn up beloved. um yeah, i could probably screw my public opinion if of the opinion you're trying to shift as well. well, the opinion dice i've said is that there's a gradual shift, some of the majority of the ukrainians leaving in the the air is currently occupied . but, but by you guys who want a compromise space, i think secondly, you know, you know, the ukrainian and the political stop is normally 5. i yeah. that they're out there . all kind of elements we've been established, or maybe on the fringes of it, who would be prepared to actually that the negotiate facing see piece it says as a basis is made the best solution for you right now i'm not, i'm just like giving a 9 to perspective, that will be in video. decide, let's just have a personal question that have ukranian votes on the your credit is a very interesting collective psyche to me because i think it's has both very large entitlement and a very large interior order to complex. you mentioned the,

you know, the power of its national was meant to me is a little bit like me there who is the right. it took you, it's on her own children because she didn't get something. and historically, i think this a few, or it was channeled very convenient to move on to russia. but once you clean becomes part of the west, aren't you concerned that they so the of the target of it's blaine will shift of what you just ripe is actually quite a typical phenomenon of small state nationalism. and i know that ukraine is not particularly small side based, as most i associate getting smaller. why is this most tight associate to evaluate a big state and quite often? well, you know what, you, what you described this sense of in combination of in type since we talked about and inferior article, but very, very typical of the nationalism um, oh, old all, most of us, most i so anyway that,

that's not the same. that's not unusual. but many other states, uh, sort of middle space like turkey is around even poland. well pulling to a lesser extent that they've been quite skilful in playing, you know, big powers against one another. and this is what i want to ask you about. because i think leadership or the cultivation of belief is a very interesting subject because it takes time, it takes such a national hardship to produce the kinds of leaves who understand the deep dynamic, psychological, and developmental dynamics of the populations. but also wars we enough to position the country within the original and global context to produce benefits for, for the people. yeah. but that's, that's what happened for you. cried was thoughtful. so for uh, you know, for the 1st 25 years of independent crime. that's exactly the gaming ukraine like really? yes, absolutely. until until 2014. when you get this definitive kind of split upon a few crane oaks definitively for the west, and that's where the professor roberts,

i think you're going to have some of the best conditions, post soviet flaps. they had some of the best economies. they had pretty wide industrial base. they have a, you know, boot land, they have a lot of people. uh, they have the good graces of the west. they also have the good, have the good, the braces of russia, because russia was eager to keep them within the if not within the, within, it's all been done every then it's a can all make it environments and yeah, they seem to waste it all on the some, you know stuff, something that, that, that, the, them, that those, i'd love corruption. i know so that they also kind of hide the provisions if the political divisions been di. what that meant was to make you cry and never transitioned out of the ninety's. the kind of coyote politics of the ninety's continued all the way, all the way for the articles to go see the new crime that i never had a fiction choice. you come and fix some stability is the power of the site that you know, some old and control and some,

and some directors are very unfortunate of success so concisely. right. but going back to the point where i think that once to will, if was i was to most of it. if you have what's left of your crane becomes part of the west is up for it is already above the west, and that's the kind of judge i see the crime. he is a again, that's 7 on the west of that point. that, that, that going to have a very, very different view and feeding tools to west when they see what has happened to the country that they have the full, this proxy will on be a multiple around the office on be off was and i've suffered to shoot kind of trauma shoes done that, which is huge loss of life. i'm actually, i don't think they're gonna play rushman, the russians like that. they're gonna blame the so called wisdom knowledge in order to be a self sufficient country. they have to accept that the, you know, for me, one's blame on, on you for me have twice blame on me. i mean, the sooner or later they will have to extend our own responsibility for that whole investigate destiny. and, you know,

also develop some acu man and shrewdness in dealing with the nature of it. but he received developing i, i'm, i, maybe, maybe not, i'm not sure i'll pull up to be a self sufficient country of any kind of life. some of the western alliance, but the issue for you to be any dependent cut they need, they need that for at least they need to keep a desk or at least access to a desk. probably no. so the symbolic races they need to keep talk of as well. the for most go now in the quantity of whatever the best on their think that we know that they're not there yet. but the prospect of a major military def, faithful, or ukrainian ministry collapse with get a fraction, a russian taking of a desperate hawk. i was, was all part of the rest of some of these new friends that actually might shop to mean to actually coming to their senses and to i'm doing a make them making the data right. i, i get get it. okay. i'm just giving up on this more,

right. i'm making the necessary concessions to rush. so you're very, you're very good. and i think historical argument, because historically russians have, i said, have had the foresight of how you should treat you animals in order to create, you know, conditions for loss and peace. that was the case both with the french and the, you know, with a gentleman says, wow, i think that's something that the, i think that's another very important part to modify. but the kind of argument behind, but i'm putting that, you know, that russia should make this very choose concession of allowing ukraine or pop you're trying to become, become a member. and i to understand conditions is because i, i still russia want, has a wants to have the been having an attitude told you you prying on ukrainians as, as, as, as a people. and if that actually truth holds, fletcher wants to reconstruct his relations with your crime. you stay with the

training of people and collaborative friend, friendship by the re, recreate some com, some furniture neighborhood, the anything, any type of us anything got you know, like that then that, that, that then i need to, they need to give something to you crying and they symbolically yes, the score and different thing i remember hear you say they need to do something to credit and like me to membership. and what i'm arguing for is that they have to consciously or recognize ukrainian dignity. and that's if the ukranian state is to exist as a stage, not just as a song fragment of native, but as a stain that has some potential for self sufficiency band. if it needs such a geographic. oh, by says, i have the impression that the list, the majority of russian public opinion and political repeatedly to pay what would be on that page at okay. the minority, if the russian nationalist suits the world wants to go thoughts of of that. but i think that's with that, that's where the said some nice metals essential. that's one thing,

strategy and politics. it is another on russia boots in the paper, russian, people do an open a can say anything. we try to get a compromise the russian secure, but it's not good that we came to that because it's not just about the ukraine. i mean, for russia either to rush, i cannot have a ukrainian sensibilities at the top of its had bigger. at the end of the day, we're all talking about the palm of european secure destruct. true to you, written about it. and you said that is the last thing, settlement of this conflict with require crating a system that would contain rather than incubate conflicts. and i think the russians did that best trying to negotiate some way out of their predicament with nato. they weren't successful. washington said, no. is there anything possibly that's good. the 1st way to change is perspective. i thought i do, i think the was. yeah. but you, you crane in the west, if the in the war is it might affect your trying to and that perspective on the basis of yeah,

you crying can become part of nights also conditions. but that would need to be an overarching framework of common european security to act as a continuing with that. and as a 1st, i thought a guarantee. definitely, you know, football size. yeah. i mean, you know, the russians actually not russian for the subways be funded. i think actually been fine since the 19th to strategy to create collective european security structures including the soviet union, including including him, rush up. i've always kind of like stumbled against the fundamental fact that the in the west roster is be seen as a rival in that. and when the apartment and i, i look for it and it's quite track to you this types and it may actually take this will this tragic war. so actually arrive a situation where there can be some kind of sensible negotiation about career gracing. come a common security space for professor robinson. this is going to be my last question for that to happen. what the west will have to part with is the idea of that. you know, it controls evolves into world economics idea, logical,

cultural, everything else. and there is an opinion in russia, that's what russians are fighting against here. it is not just the, you know, part of europe and secure destructor that fighting against 500 years of western dominance, which is 1st and foremost based on the western military and dominance. and wishes in both the soviet union in the 20th century. and i think russian more recently has managed to not necessarily arrival, but at least undermine if the west degrees to any sort of negotiations with russia. what does that effect, and we mean, does it seem here over the world, the shut hours? i mean, like the it will have to you right off i, i, that's a lot to me. so that's what you've got, what the point you just make. and it brings us back to the point you're beginning of the, the discussion. why when you also we add those to the situation to take the moment . i think it's, it's dangerous. this gets even more most i just found a bunch of guessing both actors because in the west or at least

a substantial since section of the west is not prepared to give up on that self image of it itself. on western new jermel. it's always the self image itself. we are not always during the day of superiority. it's not constructive. let's guide on you crying just being there any exist to ensure that that's all the if the, if you cry loses the night to lose a new pipe, then you're gonna lose them. and i shouldn't the dad germany on the west place of the world. and that's why the appetite to the most extreme measures to avert a good outcome. so, so that's when it comes down to it, you know, the fundamental obstacle that you have to any, the swell of thousands lined with russia, always booty, the what it might do. it lies with was the west and what is it actually capable of of trying to use fundamental well for you, any septic accepting it a different, a different set of relationship with the prime refresher and in europe as a whole movement. and i would add to that,

that ultimately what the west as the fighting against is not the russian. it's fighting history and history. it has certain objective trends 10 that even the west can know it's and again, but the, let's leave it for some other time. it's special, great talking to you again. thank you. thanks very much. thank you for watching hope to hear again. it was a part of the the

water is a part of the visit that the employee was posted. isn't the defense you of us and that in the word part, is it something deeper, more complex might be present? good. let's stop without cases. let's go part of the the whole from the fi, you know, just like dozens of other ukrainian arms, holes might have gone unnoticed, but the pirates contacted journalist to ensure this boils would go public. and so