the, the, [000:00:00;00] the, the welcome to worlds a part just by the old, the western military assistance. and the escalating retorted calling him also to the conflict in ukraine is still constrained by some unspoken understanding between the russian, the west as to what's allowed or what's not. where all these red lines signed, what may happen if they're cross of to discuss it. i'm now joined by what's the caution director and the center for comprehensive european and international

studies at the higher school of economics in moscow. but the question is always a pleasure to talk to thank you very much for your time. thank you for having me. now you have a reputation of one of the most, um, detail oriented observers of the ukrainian conflict in russia and you pay attention not so much to the ideology of it, but uh, you know, military hardware, the numbers, the trends. so i wanna use this opportunity to ask you, where are we at this point? uh, we are probably at turning point of, uh, this conflict. we see that the, the progress of the russian forces is the fastest since spring of blankets and 2. uh, since the beginning of this year, russians have been making significant gains sent uh,

sometimes the most difficult uh, uh, the most fortified to ukrainian positions such as of div could have been taken foster. then he took me to conquer, much weaker for justice in the past uh than you, the offensive seen the north of hack, if the region is indecent and a complicating ukrainian position ukraine. blame servicing, which happens on the disruption in the american assistance. however, um that's its, that's a major exaggeration because apart from the american assistance, which never actually stopped completely, there was also a very significant to european systems. can i stop? you're here for a 2nd because, you know, these calls with has been a symmetrical. and since that looks and

a logical from the very beginning is russia actually banded sitting from gaining on the battlefield. and the reason i'm asking this is because, you know, the more tactical, a strategic gains, one side may have, the other side will respond to a symmetric only with terror attacks with, you know, other forms of pressure. so ease russia really that is sitting at this point from military gain, some, some of the russian conquests reduce the ukrainian ability to conduct the terrorist attacks against dress and c test, for example. uh, the capture of the uh, the reuse, the eliminate that the most dangerous ukrainian position which could threaten and then ask, and i need the lakes degrees of the number of artillery systems which could potentially be used to at that then. yeah,

it's good because uh, when of the good was even ukrainian handles, they could use uh, almost everything including pay and mortars to attack the sheet to which they deed the regularly now needs becoming much more difficult. uh, the same is happening uh, in the heck, a full blister, the russians are trying to take a s which were used previously for uh, indiscriminate selling our builder such as the attack before them before the new year's eve. uh, in the end of 2023, when more than 100 people were injured. uh, so uh, before we create a security is own along the border, which was basically mentioned by president bush and in the past. uh, and that should be relatively wide security. his own house does himself kill a minute or so,

at least that will already improve the security of the russian territory. and at the same time, we could threaten major ukrainian, a political and defense industrial center, such as surface. now are speaking about this uh, security zone and its potential boundaries. i heard you seen before, the preserving some sort of a military and bastion in ukraine for the west is still considered a preferred outcome. but there was doesn't really concern itself with fuel grants, territorial integrity. that's much. mm hm. i wonder though, if there are still some strong prerequisites there, because if, let's say ukraine's loses access to the black sea cost, it's uh, strategic and logistical value as an asset is set to decrease. as we see from the

statements of some western leaders, including a, the statements by the french president monochrome. uh, they will try to prevent, uh, capture for this a by, by the russian forces. this is one of the red lines when before they see that the section danger section, denture emerges, we might witness an escalation. give me time to talk about this uh, red line because i mean the in this conference in particular and there were many, a red lines and many were crossed and especially with their french president. he's a wards, sometimes not the very substantive fight to put a diplomatic play on their capabilities. real capabilities for the west to do what it proposes and states there are capabilities to start a major escalation that will require

a huge appetite for risk taking because what they will need to do is they'll send a very significant forces in through ukraine and start directly attacking freshman forces, otherwise they can not affect the outcome of for uh, what material on this firm click trying to do. she's trying to create a situation of strategic can be good to you and he hopes that will force a rush at the strain. and so now we're actually is also, i think, touring with the strategic can be guaranteed because presents, which it has never or is military commanders have never stated firmly whether they have an interest of moving the russian military contention to adjust or how to get for that matter, how do you understand the russian calculus at this point? i believe that the russian goals are involving during, during the course of 4. and depending on the current situation,

i believe there certainly state of minimal goals. russia will try to get those external boards or so for the, for new regions and the russian will try to force your brain to accept political conditions which your will will be close to. what was in the stumble agreements. uh, these are the minimal and goals, plus probably russia will try to establish and keep some kind of safety is own uh along the border of the ukraine with the with the uh, $32014.00 the russian regions. so the lease is what's happening and i guess at this point the dresser will probably be ready to negotiate on the condition. so we try to describe the bus. however,

if the other side will continue resisting russian forces will continue at their offensive operations. and the, of course that you've done to students that uh, terry theory, which will be taken by russia with significant sacrifice. this can not be given back. so uh, initially russian didn't want to change the territorial state, the score at toll. uh and if the crane and the rest agreed to do it, the stumble agreements ukraine will control this will control the same territory which is controlled before uh, february 2022. now, uh at the time when the symbol agreements ruined, as, as you say, under the pressure from the west uh, the menu,

western policymakers talked about the need to subject russia to a strategic defeat. we are not hearing those statements anymore. but my question to you is, how do we understand operational goals of the western participation at this point? at this point, the goal is to save the car into ukrainian regime as a functioning and minimally economically viable states, which could be gradually built very armed and turned into an assets in the long cold war against the russian. not necessarily, they're counting uh, at the ukraine as a potential military force for the future because the damage, which was done on ukrainian economy and resources to do significant. but the, i'm the ultimately ukraine. ukraine will be used as base for various subversive

gland, the spine, hybrid, the variations, which we should basically um, use the fact even now and it, it, it has been the fact since a very long time since the thousands and there were publications in the west about the ca, basis in ukraine, uh, which are focused on working against russia and which were created uh at least the 2014, if not earlier. basically, information about cooperation of the western intelligence services would say, of creating and intelligence and working against russia and march to make sure they're so still it will be valuable assets, russian goals, ease of cost, to prevent it from happening. and this is why so far it are not easily reconciled the little and needs to soften the western position. now i heard you say

in another interview that even if they're more stops, ukraine would not be able to provide for itself. and in civilian terms for the foreseeable future, i think last year its domestic budget was by 60 percent failed by external forces. this year. i mean they figure may be higher. i wonder if that makes the word a cheaper option. because if you have some sort of a piece, that's what they negatively raise a question of rec, construction to music and go into, you know, much higher numbers. isn't it more profitable for, for the west to, you know, keep this asset at the, you know, low grade conflicts rather than deal with the, you know, rebuilding that. well, the, the who, it's not more profitable from financial point of view of the situation is, in fact today they're already ukraine. the required certain amount of assistance to function as a state isn't before the war,

millions of dollars per year. now ukraine is getting every year in the month for systems which is comparable to their 2022. i'm going to be ukraine and trying to bring to i'm going to be was about to $100000000.00. now they're getting something like close to $100.00. their year and the whole of the ukrainian economic dynamics and um, is basically defined by amount of the subsistence, if the war stops, for example, stops. now what happens next? of course the, the, the, some problems will be removed. uh uh, the additional damage to the ukranian um, the infrastructure will stop. people will stop, it'll die,

however many problems will still exist. for example, in order to mobilize people to war, ukraine made an absolutely huge financial commitments to the families of the full and soldiers. they are supposed to get a and, and very high amount of money, which is divide that the proportions likely. they're supposed to get something like $15000000.00 driven us, which are dividing the special purpose of several purchase over on the over several years. so since the last, this of the ukrainian forces are already significant, there will be huge buck burden of money and they will need to play in the light coming coming year. so these families of costs they can cheat then they can uh, closer to official inflation. but that will create huge discontent. they will still

need to read and rebuild the military. and that will be done on uh for and health of them for an a system cs money. they will still need to many thing. they state that there at this uh and uh, on top of that uh that will be the building uh at the same time mr. cushion if i may still for your for a 2nd because we need to take a short break, but we will return to this very hot topic and just a few moments say to the the,

the welcome back tools of parts. we have some, i sent a caution director and the center for comprehensive if you're a fan and secure just that is the high school of economics and most of the mystic cushion before the break. we started talking about the thomas's that the ukranian, linda should the current name brand new leadership gave to the soldiers and their

families of huge pavements and the, during the break, we tried to calculate how much, uh, 15000000 agreements. would it be in the convertible currencies? and you say that it's roughly several $100000.00. it's several years dollars. and yeah, so that's essentially on par with the or perhaps even higher than the payments that the american military person. it's comparable to. what's the space in the west as far as i understand the idea, but they've seen several parts over several years, and they'll get this money assembly the same as they will see ukraine in a service. men need to present all of the data, including the identification of the corpse, and that, that is difficult, so they don't even if they provide all of that. i mean, given the state of the ukraine in the economy, it's hard to on stands. what's the budget?

the basis for that kind of format as well, bar play there, there is no basis of varies uh, 1st of all of the 4 in the systems, which of course depends heavily on internal political situation in the don't are countries which can get tired of that. another way out for the training and budget this just because if you show fi inflation and the inflate to this problem is uh, which is quite likely. it's interesting that you mentioned that they are counting on foreign sources. because during the last couple of months, as the american congress was considering this a package, the issue of pensions, not just huge, military payouts, but simply paying pensions out of the american money. it was a, you know, a pretty hot topic. do you think uh, sponsors there, sponsors, i truly understand what they are getting themselves in. and i think they really

fully understand. they don't have to necessarily though they still there are women's and to fill their mm to their public opinion. um, but of course the see shows the military, the intelligence official state cool deal, the seo crane. they understand this fully, there will be huge. need to pay pensions and the other issue which will be happening. uh, uh, currently there are millions, sofa mm. the ukrainians, mostly women and children living in new york and they are there adopting to life. they're getting jobs going to schools that their men are turn, play for, be moved to leave the country once the war stops the more their ser open. uh, i think it's more likely that not least women and children return to ukraine, but rather there man will go to you or the rejoining them that will probably create

additional me a demographics decline and significant them down towards trend for the training and economy and make situation wars now given the costs to ukraine, that they are just mentioned that and not, don't want it to your grant, but to the west itself. the need for military support, you know, multi $1000000000.00 assistance to pay subsidies, a demographic losses, etc. and until recently the was generally assumed the, the west is sort of gearing out for a low grade war of attrition that takes away resources from russian onto minds that uh uh, from proper development. i wonder though if the ukraine hotspot is such an effective way of solving the, the russian question, because apparently it's not cheap. what is what kind of a bang they're getting for their box?

uh well, uh they're getting almost nothing. nothing because at the foot, talk about pressure inside the fresh, a ukrainian conflict started. so the very dramatic change of the whole russian political economy and model of development. we see that the large sectors of the russian economy change hands, some were re nationalized, some went from international companies to the local, the russian companies. and the, uh, the composition of the russian ruling elite has changed significantly and not in the direction that the west to be like to see. and the, as for the west, spend the spending on your print. it will be a long term. absolutely huge. the losses are comparable, the financial losses of the west are probably bigger than the rest of the financial

losses because also the freezer. so also the western best that's inside the, for asha and, and because of the fact that many uh, western companies had to sell their business in the raw, should huge. the, definitely the costs and to pay increased taxes for that. and the, even after the war stops, uh, the west will needs to spend money does on some 1000000000. so dollar some ukraine every year for steal face dangerously accumulating joe political defeated. because if they fail, those failed to spend this money. then ukrainian staple just collapse without any particular effort from the russian side, and the they will have to deal with this problem anyway.

the ukraine in leadership will probably be happy to, to have a low intensity conflict, a constant, marsha low, avoid elections and continue it getting. uh and uh, continuing getting uh, external uh, financial assistance precisely because then the stand that once there is base, it will be much more difficult to pass with a huge spending on the ukraine through the american. then you're being far lemons. i want to ask you one more question about the landscape because clearly there are no syntheses for him, for him in most good. and what's surprising is that over the last couple of months, we have for more and more criticism from western military professionals about how wasteful and absolutely negligent, if not cruel. he is about using his own human resources, both civilian the military. but i wonder if uh,

at this point most school would prefer him to stay or to go because it will fund the criminal. nelson goes by the adage, better the devil with no. and at this point of time, it looks like from what you're saying, zelinski is hurting the west more than a parts russian. well, it's a document that the end it's described many times seen the ukrainian media and in statements. so feel crane in military experts and officers that zalinski deeds personally contribute to some of the military disasters who witnessed by ukraine since the beginning of 4, especially he, on the number of cases in the system indefinitely, defending hopeless positions which were probably forgotten to per person yeah, which were yes, they me surround it in order to to prove the ukrainian, the resilience to the west ascii. so it or for propaganda purposes or just

because he had his own. i'm can unconventional view some warfare and that was one of the reasons for he is constantly conflicts with previous uh, commander in chief of the armed forces. so if you train about a zillow's name, of course, so some of the, some of these characteristics of a zelinski are good for russia. russian never tried. contrary to the what pieces the russian never tried to kill him. that there hasn't been any strikes against the government for addressing fees. and the some months ago, russia has shown video footage of dealings. zelinski is of these it's to share some which was taken from russian drones. so at least once there was an occasion then zelinski was watched by the russians. serial time within the range of their

artillery could be easily eliminate that they've done and nothing. so that's a, that's it is a lens as a landscape incompetence isn't good for us. but at some point, he will become a problem for everyone, because he is the person most interested in and less continuation of war, no matter what and to you. and if um, at some point, uh, russians will go much deeper into ukraine. she will prefer to fight until the end even run until she needs to evacuate. still need to take her 3 and form a government in exile or rather then talk to the russians. some uh, do you think nato would actually want a few months to search for it? because, i mean, what's the point of them posting? i do like that some point probably he or she comes probably that at some point they will have no other option. uh, and will have to accept him. uh, however,

i believe everyone understands there. i do believe that she is becoming problem magic's and the, you know, the, the, in the history of, of cold war uh, various things sometimes happens to such political lawyers kind of, let's deal with the americans practice targeted. the association is not only again for the leaders, but also as you know, some have speculated against the own. so against the yes, the pro, on the lead yourself, some pro american thought the 3 dreams which became a 2 problematic that happened during the cold war. but who knows what happens now of, for russia, i believe with the best is a situation is that he just has to change his mind, then starts to negotiate. that's why russia lloyd's any personal attacks against people physically and basically indicates that the rest of these are ready

to talk to him. and she has to take all of the measures to prevent these folks from happening. and some of these measures are just no t's degrees binding, some from negotiating from russian. but those of terrorist attacks against the russian civilians are goods and population which as he hopes uh, will make negotiations impossible. okay, well um the suggestion that we have to move in there, thank you very much for your time and thank you for watching hope to hear again and was a part of the the,

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the the in previous tours of duty. i often heard the phrase, artillery is the god of war. so which is repeated and is often seen on military chaperones. was stuck in my head, which is a me really, i was wondering what these soldiers are like. what will they do? and how they handle that powerful weapons that go down. yeah, hang over