the, the, the welcome to enter part, treating 3rd, treat total security or additions for peace. a last thing settlement of the ukrainian conflict with required difference given takes from each of the parties. but 1st, they would probably have to part spend on sense of righteousness does the historical moment or the nature of this conflict allow for this or to discuss that. i'm now joined by geoffrey roberts emeritus professor of history of the university college park. professor roberts is always a great pleasure, personal, a pleasure to talk to you. but on top of that, i'm far to in the some academic exchanges. it's been western and russian scores continue as this crisis continues to escalate. where do you think we are in uh

in this the battle of what stage? the conflict tests taken? i think um my, my, my current faded over and we're in a very dangerous not much of the danger rise. this is the same thing. you said last time we talked the way it's actually i think it's more districts, god bless you have more time just yes because the closer but thank you crying comes to the fate of the most desperate potentially reckless. the west is getting about powerful um, extreme, his voice is uh, becoming so it is quite possible that that deal. and then we may see some extreme actions to some postop, ukraine's defense. and then obviously they will be a danger of escalation arising out those actions. what do you to see as potentially extreme actions from the side of the west? because it's clear that the ukraine is becoming more liberal in its open use of terrace tactics. but what about the west?

well, i mean old talking about is the introduction of western troops in some phone. that issue seems to be on the agenda again. there's also talk about not know, fly songs. yeah. older kind of stuff is being be, discuss it the beginning of the war and which yeah. west of lead is that refused to contemplate that that time. but that back on the agenda and you know, the but they seem to be, i mean more i'm, we take the most seriously and i'd be more multiple patch of sex. no, i don't. i don't think the intention of those kind of actions troops on the, based on the ground or some kind of um, app our intervention. it won't bates us a lot precipitating waterboard roster? that won't be the, the intention of goals that won't be the danger that they know. because obviously russia, i don't think, well will allow those, that those actions. you either if, if, if there was some truth on the ground, wherever you crying that will be attacked. but by russia and the same goes for

a lesson apples involved. but you know, something like this was contemplated 2 years ago. but as i say, it says to have more precious power. i'm a home, i mean, does it have more purchase power and long uh, people at large and why would that be the case? because, i mean, it's pretty clear that whatever west and think or is us trying to just sort of the russian army 2 years ago. the presuppositions were defeated, the to say the least way. it certainly doesn't have in the purchasing public opinion in the west, the old, if the older public opinion died. so we have, you know, suggest, you know, pop popular opinions, moving in the directional away from one direction of peace in simple, some kind of compromise based on what the nights. so particular western countries to do to do something recklessly introduced you. it's okay to get more involved threatening cause it's still been a no most kind of like out this the puppy old position, black dress, certainly a restraining factor. how strong these voice is in favor of direct tensional it's,

it's difficult to say, i mean, did that, does the savvy a lot of them at the moment? i mean, the rock, the rock concept, their accounts voices. and, but i, you know, i think, i think it was, we might assist a popup of this conflict from the point of view of the west proxy. what russia has been a kind of a persistent escalation, one escalation of the, of a. so they've done it. so often has almost become the actual so i think i, i will be out the show. i won't be surprised if they types of escalators that do you take this escalation as i calculated tactic. in other words, when people raise a bit and to do they actually understand, are they conscious of what they're doing and you know, they're possible, a reply for i, i think it's, it's partly a calculated tactics, but i think it's also um, an emotionally based tactics because they've taught themselves into a position where they basically sums their right rectory. they really believe that

if they lose the new cried new fresh winds. and the ukraine is going to be the end of the west. and lo, it, as we know it, you know, it but willing to be someone who might want no, it wants. no, it won't happen. and it's important that we don't, we don't actually buy into that that, that disco. so no, no, do you train, you train what would be a huge blow tonight? so as a west west stage, it will be critical be cried to be full size of prices rise next, but no i, i think the west the world is we know at night so we're west and palace of i think when we might, unless the wall goes on and on. yes. and russia kind of tried saving, multi plan to you, frank rush, it comes to occupy the how the price and the wall. continuation of yeah. and not going to be stream situation. yeah. that then possibly we are looking at the a much more laptop elliptic outcome. let's discuss something that you and a number of other western score is proposed. recent fan data is a compromise to this war. in fact, hugh suggested in one of your recent articles that, but i think it puts in,

could stop this war by negotiating a peace deal that includes ukraine's membership of nato. why do you believe that this proposal, which is the underlying premise for, for this call? so it has any complying power not only in moscow, but 1st and foremost in kiff and in washington, the if the is going to be a negotiator to enter the peace settlement, then that you've got discounts. we some kind of western security, a guarantee of what's left to be crane started off to the wall, right? that's the 1st, but it's got that the 2nd part is that night. so on the west of the politically and retire, there's hardly a what funny, very, very difficult to difficult to back away from accepting you. trying into nathan members even even under conditions dictated by russia. that's the 2nd. and the 3rd thing um yep. strategically having ukraine in they say what type of advantages from the west, and by the view, it would mean that you have your trade in lights. i was left of it. less than your

crime, presumably what, what, what, what constitutes some kind of office on, with russia. ok, this process would be the militarize zone dominated by say there's no new to weapons all kind of restrictions. but nevertheless, you'd have an independence pro western nathan member viewpoint actions above the trucks that are real kinds of good reasons for so yeah, the west united states and i talked to it except such a deal. now it kept mentioning, this phrase, ukraine or what's left of it, and i think that's the, you know, the, the crux of the problem and a number of russian analysts indirectly driven the are because they claim that was what is now being decided on the battlefield is where the boundary between russian and west to secure is a parameter will lie, whether it's formal or informal. and clearly a mosque was interested in pushing it further into your crane. but i'm not sure if the wants to push it as far as, let's say, western new creative, it's very hostile and add to russian population. now,

based on history based on the current sentiments where addressing done boundary eclipse live organically for, if there is such a term as organic boundary between russia in the west. i, i think, as of now the natural boundary would be um, acceptance by you cried in the west of russia, the corporation of crime and until the before the for additional provinces. and that in any way, that's the only option that leads to call and fost rush. why is the base guide brush those, those territories apart. also put the above upon the choose you the so that's that, that, that, that, that's, that's, that's the minimum. how far you go beyond that? yeah, it depends on, on the, on the war. ok. some people argue that, that maybe you should go as far as hawk of the as far as a desa. the problem with that is yes. that may, will, in a way that may, will be

a natural cause historical cultural political badly. but it will be enormously costly for russia to actually occupied, talk of down to the end, the end of the desa. okay. but the bottom line is, i, i don't see russia expanding any further into your cry, done under the, in the book. now it also suggested that in the criminal record, to contemplate such a concession ukraine and it's western beckers, would have to give a quote, cast iron commitments to ukraine's permanent demilitarization or beat within the framework of a need to a membership. and the 1st of all, i, i'm not sure of the russians believe in any degree of firmness, alpha, quote, unquote, the western commitments. but on top of that, you know, demilitarized within the nature of framework, isn't it a bit like, i don't know, it's a writer with wipers, but well behaving. mice, i mean, like even if and ukraine is the militarized and like it's not the ukraine, that is

a problem for russia. it's beta. what, what do i do there is of kind of pressed of this kind of green because it goes when um, east germany was united with west jeff and became a spell. and you have the kind of 5 nights of the agreement was the friend at that point. the treated rush hour, somebody to unit to base restaurants, but it's only the danger ensure but the pain was that there will be no nitro expansion into each of them and it goes to populate from nature nature. then expand retrieve jo. do a cause expand it is a voltage state, suppose i have to add another country. so for all precedents for the conditions on that one on, on the, on the, on my toes a night nitrogen expansion. yeah. now i think there is also a more recent precedent. that's the support your case. the case of to our k, a number of fresh leaders including flickers himself, said that having trick is a part of nature is not that bad for russian because it contains that culture which is an actual competitor, original competitor for russia. and i can see that the logic being applied to

ukraine, but i struggled to understand why i would need to want uh, you know, drive aged, highly traumatized uh, very limply angry country or whatever left with as part of it. so no direct line is usually important point the, you know, i think for the russian part view, it's not ukraine's membership. the site that match at all, i have a match out. it was something that was the nighttime military built up in the use of ukraine as a tool for that. so i, so if you pray that was left, it becomes a law of a night of the other different conditions. then it's not such a, it's not such a frightening development. we asked a question about, you know, why should this issue of trust? you're looking at the trust cost both why so this is trust issues on both sides. and the only way to, to work through the issue is to actually make, make, make agreements and see what happens and try to make those agreements. they go through, you know, as the rest of the, like to say, uh, yeah, you know, trust,

but very far what i ask you about the slightly different aspect of it. why would need to want? i mean, i understand native logic of having ukraine as you know, sort of send me affiliated member of its alliance and using it as a sort of battering ram against pressure. but if they actually have to take responsibility for your cranes, you know, angry and time since for rebuilding it for even providing it with some infrastructure, why would they need it? because they're losing all the benefits of that policy. i'm assuming all the cost high. i, i think for political reasons, i mean that that's why i'm not 50 thought. yeah. my, i well, why do i could come forward with this suggestion that you, craig could become a member of nato honda. so in conditions that could be part of to the i was trying to think of a lie to police equally, given the, what the west, the way out politically to back off from, for the, for of the war with russia for of abrupt proxy. what that, but that was my kind of kind of reasoning. so i think, you know, yeah, it would be the know most kind of challenges and all of us from all kinds of

dysfunction. i'm sure that we plan the voices who would like us. i know we shouldn't listen to this, but i think for political reasons, nights i would find it very different, very difficult to actually to have this back on your crime completely and refused to, to allow in inter membership. you quote professor over. so i hope you're right on that the, even though i'm, you know, to some extent it's uh, you know, facing the consequences of, of your own polio. you're saying it's no, i'm not making a prediction error or prophecy. i'm not sure what's gonna happen if i it's, i'm likely, well i, i know what's gonna happen right now because we're going to take a very short break, but we will be back in just a few moments fit you in the,

[000:00:00;00] the welcome back to when is the parts best jeffrey of operates emeritus professor of history university college park. now professor rubbers before the break, we talked about the russian rationale and they just logic. let's talk about the brain right now. and i think that's a very interesting case study because it's hard to find another country besides a few grand. that's what so eagerly assumed the role of a client stage without the goal shading any developmental of security guarantees for itself. and i mean, even israel, for example, uh, in other clients space is very showed about um, you know,

ensuring its own base. but the frame sort of threw himself into the western embrace completely with down the, you know, asked is actually from watch how do you understand the, the calculus of kids here? yeah, i did it because this is the most difficult. i've got fixed most difficult for me. i mean, for you to once, that is why you crime shows because it did add on what still chooses to fight to for, to fight on. it obviously is to do with the power of ukrainian nations and we did the emotional power as well as the political 5 you for international. that'd be one say, i think secondly, there was this cause face belief in the west in west sensible. i mean, i mean western power so that i persuaded themselves that they could, they could, they could win this war in some, uh, its in some form. okay. and now having tried that actually effectively last last of

all that just um they just clicking on the and waiting for something, something some somebody type in something to um, to sign up. but look, um yeah, i could probably to get my public opinion or opinion and you're trying to shift as well. well, the opinion dice i've said is that there's a gradual shift from all of the majority of the ukrainians leaving in the need. the areas currently occupied by you guys who want a compromise space. i think secondly, you know, you know, the, the ukrainian and the police established normally 5. i yeah. that they're out there . all kind of elements we've been established with all maybe on the fringes of it, who would be prepared to actually that the negotiated pacing. see piece it says as a basis is made the best solution for me, right now i'm up. i'm so give me a $92.00, that's a text that will be in video decide. let's just have a personal question that have ukrainian votes and your credit is a very interesting collective psych it to me because i think it's has both very

large entitlement and a very large interior or it's a complex. you mentioned the, you know, the power of its nationalism and to me is a little bit like mid day when so right. it took us on her own children because she didn't get some things. and historically, i think this for you, or it was channeled very conveniently on to russia, but once you clean becomes part of the west, aren't you concerned that base? so the, the target of it's blaine will shift of what you described is actually quite a typical phenomenon of small state nation as of now. and i know the ukraine is not particularly small side based as the most i associate getting smaller. why is this most tight associated with a, a big state and quite often? well, you know what, you, what you described this sense of a combination of in type, since we talked about and inferior article back. very, very typical of the nationalism. oh, i'll go all of a small size. so anyway that,

that's not the origin. that's not unusual, but many other space. uh, sort of middle space like turkey is around, even poland. well, pulling to a lesser extent that they've been quite skilful in playing, you know, big powers against one another. and this is what i want to ask you about. because i think leadership or the cultivation of belief is a very interesting subject because it takes time, it takes such a national hardship to produce the kinds of leaves who understand the deep dynamic, psychological, and developmental dynamics of that population. but also whereas we, enough to position the country within the original and global context to, you know, printers, benefits for, for the people. yeah. but that's, that's what happened for you. cried was thoughtful. so for uh, you know, for the 1st up to 25 years of independence of crime. that's exactly the gaming ukraine. like really? yes, absolutely. until until 2014, when you get this definitive kind of split upon a few crime oaks definitively for the west. and that's when we don't hear back, professor roberts,

i think you're going to have some of the best conditions post soviet collapse. they had some of the best economies. they had pretty wide industrial base. they have a, you know, with land. they have a lot of people. they have the good graces of the west. they also have the good, have the good, the basis of pressure because russia was eager to keep them within the if not within the, within the, it's all they've done it within its economic environment. and yeah, they seem to waste it all on the some, you know, done something that, that, that, the, them, that those, i'd love corruption. i know so that they also kind of hide divisions if the political divisions been di, what that meant was to be cried, never transitioned out of the ninety's, the kind of coyote politics or not just continued or the what all the way for the articles to go see the new crime that i never had a breach and tracy come and fix. some stability is the power,

all the sites that you know, some old and control and some and some direct is a very unfortunate effect. so, so concisely. right? but going back to the point where i think the once to will, if was i was to was of, if you have was left of your train, comes part of the west is up for like it's already about the west. and that's all kinds of jobs. i've reviewed crime usually they kinda got upset on the west of that point that they're going to have a very, very different view and feeding tools to west when they see what's happened to the country that they have the full this proxy will on the, on around the office on the off was and i've suffered a shoot kind of trauma shoes, the damage issues last a lot. i'm actually, i don't say they're going to play rush or, and the russians like that good is going to blame that the so called western allies in order to be a self sufficient country. they have to accept the, you know, for me was blame on, on you for me twice, blame on me. i mean they, sooner or later they will have to accept our own responsibility for that whole investigate destiny. and, you know,

also develop some ask you man and shrewdness in dealing with the nature of it. but do you see developing i, i'm, i may be maybe not, i'm not sure i pull up to, to be a self sufficient country of any kind of life. some of the western new lions. yeah but but they oh shoot for you to be an independent cut. they need, they need very at least they need to keep a desk or at least access to desk probably notes on the, to the symbolic reasons. they need to keep hawk of as well the most go now in the quantity of whatever the they, i think that you know that they're not there yet. but the prospect of a major military, the faithful, or you're training ministry flats, which get a fraction, a russian taken of a desperate hawk of it was all part of the rest of some of these new friends that actually might shop them into actually coming to their senses and to enter and make them making the data right. i i give gail,

can you just give me up on this more rough i'm making the necessary concessions a to the restaurant we are very, are very good. and i think historical argument, because historically russians have, i said, have had the foresight of how you should treat your enemies in order to create, you know, conditions for loss and peace. it was the case both with the french and the, you know, with the germans as well. i think that's something that the, i think that's another very important part to modify. but the kind of argument behind. but i'm putting that, you know, that russia should make this very choose concession of allowing ukraine or pop you're trying to become, become a member. and i to understand conditions is because i, i still russia want, has a wants to have the been having an attitude told you you prying on ukrainians as, as, as, as a people. and if that attitude holds, fletcher wants to reconstruct his relations with you cried new state,

i will do you friday, a people on collaborative friend friendship. i re recreate, sometimes even richard naples, the anything, any type of us anything got you know like that then that that, that then i need to, they need to give something to you crying like symbolically. yes, he is quite a different thing. i mean, they hear you say they need to give something to your credit and like me to membership. and what i'm arguing for is that they have to consciously or recognize ukrainian dignity. and that's if the ukranian state is to exist as a stage, not just as a song fragment of native, but as a stain that has some potential for self sufficiency band, if it needs session and geographical by a by says that i have the impression that the list the majority of russian public opinion and political repeatedly available. it would be on that page at okay, that are a minority if the russians nationalist suits the world, wants to go. thoughts of, of that. but i think that's where that, that's where the sentiment is. michael's essential, that's one thing,

strategy and politics. it is another und russia boots in the paper, russian, people really are not going to consider the signature of what you get a compromise the russians secure, but it's not good that we can to that because it's not just about the ukraine. i mean, for russia either to rush, i cannot have a ukrainian sensibilities at the top of its had bigger. at the end of the day, we're all talking about the palm of european, secure just structure as i you written about. as you said, that is the last thing settlement of this conflict with require creating a system that would contain rather than incubate conflicts. and i think the russians and didn't that best trying to negotiate some way out of their predicament with nato. they weren't successful. washington said, no. is there anything possibly that's good. the 1st way to change is perspective. i thought i don't, i think the war. yeah. but ukraine in the west defeat in the war this, it might affect your trying to and that perspective on the basis of yeah,

you crying can become part of nights also conditions. but that would need to be an overarching framework of common european security to act as a consignment with that. and as a 1st, i thought a guarantee. definitely, you know it's football size. yeah, i mean, you know, the russians actually not russian for the summers before the, i think actually been fine since the 19th to strategy to create collective european security structures, including the soviet union include, including in russia. but i've always kind of like stumbled against the fundamental fact that the in the west roster was be seen as a rival in that. and when the apartment and i, i look for it and it's quite tracked you this tight and it may actually take this was this tragic war to actually arrive a situation where there can be some kind of sensible negotiation about group creation, comics come a security space for professor robinson, this is going to be my last question for that to happen. what the west will have to part with is the idea of that. you know, it controls the events in the world economics,

ideological cultural everything else. and there is an opinion in russia, that's what russians are fighting against here. it is not just the, you know, part of europe and secure destructor that fighting against 500 years of western dominance, which is 1st and foremost based on the western military dominance. and the wishes in both the soviet union in the 20th century. and i think russian more recently has managed to not necessarily arrival, but at least undermine if the west degrees to any sort of negotiations with russia. what does that effectively mean? does it seem here over the world? the shutter is, i mean like the it will have to you right off i, i does a lot to me. so that's what you, that's what the point you just make. and it brings us back to the point you're beginning of the, the discussion. why when you also we are, those are the situation to take the most and it's, it's dangerous. this gets even more most i just found a way to get through both actors. because in the west or at least

a substantial sense section of the west is not prepared to give up on that self image of it itself on western new jermel. it's not always the self image itself. we understand. so if the superiority it's not constructed, let's guide on you crying just being there any existing show by batch, or the if the, if you cry loses the night to lucian new, right? then you're going to lose that domination, the dad germany on the west, a place of the world. and that's why the advertising, the most extreme measures to a book, a good outcome. so, so that's when it comes down to it. you know, the fundamental obstacle that you have to any, the swell of thousands liable, rochelle, with booty the what it might do it lies with, with the west. and what is it actually capable of trying to use fundamental welfare. any septic for septic, it's a different, a different set of relationship with the prime refresher and in europe as a whole movement. and i would add to that,

that ultimately what the west as the finding a ghost is not the russian. it's fighting history and history. it has certain objective trends saying that even the west can know it's and again, but the, let's leave it for some other time. it's been great talking to you again. thank you . thanks very much. thank you for watching hope to share again. it was a part of the, the, the hello and welcome to cross the full board. here we discussed some real in the plus

the see the silver. so the move to savannah a lot. how can it be that um the ship to the middle east from a country whose top officials constantly complain about shortages of munitions and military equipments. destroyed no pain, the boy, but in passing low green and know the old one uses them a low grade level, nominal facility, or some of those other staff we, i'm about the easiest to to not know. so let us know. we have more of an easy, some better mobile bubbles, a sort of wellness that will kind of the piece that have gone on one level. why are weapons from ukraine spreading over the world to, to this country and to a major arms hub, will continue to bolster ukraine's and forces by rushing them occasionally use that they need to defend their country. the everyone knows very well that we don't sell but known as buying apples or any kind of children's toys. we sell women's. yes.

we're also known in the world as items dealers that we must not be ashamed of that or the most. okay, what was the ukrainian of preparations for an attack on the tuscan nuclear power plants on the way it follows repose? the key of is planning good village people, publication phone with jim and spied chief police. you train on total for into the tower attack on the notes stream to pipelines, state thing, an operation of that scale on sophistication, couldn't have happened without native support. and then we have prompt to carry the blood of 400000000 people to eradicate to colonial rule in india. within this week mark and get 78 independence day off the 200 is a british colonial rule. we take