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in different parts of our planet, the elements manifest themselves differently; each country has its own rating of the most dangerous natural catastrophes, in some places the greatest damage is caused by hurricanes, in others by earthquakes, well, in russia at the top of the rating, perhaps at... it’s not surprising that about 3 million rivers flow in our country, and in the spring almost any of them can overflow their banks. the southern urals are engulfed in floods ; currently the orenburg region and the city of orsk have suffered the most. here , due to a series of breaks in the local dam , an entire area was flooded. more than 6 thousand houses were under water, and damage from the disaster could exceed 21 billion rubles. was it possible...

employee of the russian institute of water problems mikhail bolgov, hydrologist, chief scientist of the academy of sciences. mikhail vasilievich, hello. good afternoon. so, mikhail vasilyevich, let's start with orsk. what actually happened in the city and what is the reason for such a catastrophic rise in water levels? the reason for the rise in water level, of course, is that a flood is forming this year, according to an extreme, one might say, scenario, when such hydrometeorological conditions develop, a rare combination of which leads to intense the flow of water into the rivers, so we observe a combination of large snow reserves in the catchment area, strong freezing in the same territory, which prevents large losses of runoff and intense snow melting...

this is that part of the current, that part of the snow, that part of the melt water that goes into the ground, fills drainage tanks, it is less this year due to freezing, and we are observing exactly the extreme scenario of the development of spring floods, of course, that is, there is a lot of snow, still more than normal, and also an intense invasion of warm air, mikhail vasilyevich, but if i understand correctly, any flood, such a hydrological catastrophe, is still a natural-technical phenomenon, that is, on the one hand, we have meteorologically...

now this is really such a probability that once in 100 years this could happen or is this more often a more typical situation, we will find out this a little later, when the flood reaches its maximum, then we... will say that yes, this level is like this, it exceeds everything that was observed during the period of so-called instrumental observations, and accordingly, we can judge by statistical processing what period of recurrence or security it really had, it is clear, but in any case , of course, it is more than the norm, apparently significantly, naturally, this is already visible, it is already clear that from the observations of such has not been recorded before, this is the first reason, which is rare, but it happens in our country.

how it is constructed and this type of dam may be specifically in orsk, but as for the actual design of protective structures, it it’s not anything super-original , it’s usually a soil laid in a special way, which must

withstand the hydrostatic pressure of water in a river or lake during the period when a flood develops, well, besides, it probably should be... protected from erosion , for this, a special covering of concrete slabs is usually provided and many other technical details that ensure the stability of this structure, here the main term in all this hydraulic engineering science is to ensure the stability of the structure in the process of exposure to huge volumes of water at the strongest levels, here no fundamental science is required for all these methods. accounts have corresponding standards, all reliability requirements are regulated by the relevant construction documents and sets of rules, so we are only talking about the fact that it is necessary to carry out survey and design in strict accordance with the system of regulatory documents. it’s clear, here it’s just a little confusing that if

, well, as you rightly noted, that for now it’s too early to say how rare this phenomenon is; we have to wait for the peak of the flood, which is literally just around the corner. there are only a few days left before it, but still, if this is there, well, it repeats itself once every 80 years, if i understand correctly, this dam must withstand one hundred percent, this should not happen, yes, that is, there is something there somewhere apparently, the mark of the so-called platinum crest has crept in, as we see from photo film materials or those posted on the internet, it has not yet been exceeded, that is, destruction the dam did not happen through overflow from above, but through the destruction of the dam. went by destroying the soil at the base, apparently, there was a deviation from the project, most likely, probably, the preparation of the lodge, preparation of the site was not done, yes, perhaps the forest was not cut down carefully, perhaps

soils of inappropriate quality were backfilled, anti-filtration measures were not provided , this can only be assumed now, this is technical expertise, naturally they will figure it out and say.

how much water will there be in this snow, perhaps it will melt and how much of it, what part of it will be absorbed into the soil or linger there in so-called depressions, closed depressions, and so on, which for this area can constitute a very significant part, by the way, here is the geographic specificity of this particular area, the second part is meteorological, because in order to model snowmelt for the period of time ahead of the forecast... we must understand what the meteorology will be like, and this is one of the main, so to speak,

one of the main reasons for the large confidence interval, since we are bad at predicting what will happen there in 2-3 months, for example, it would be good for us to have a long-term forecast there, at least a month in advance, since in order to quickly manage large cascades of reservoirs, it takes time, we we cannot open the sluice gates, shutters, or reset the transfer in 5 minutes or 24 hours. already painted a good picture of universal physical and mathematical happiness, but

unfortunately, they forgot about the enemies, as they say, because the process of runoff formation watershed is a process that takes into account many factors, and we must understand what will happen in our specific physical and geographical conditions, where this water will go, how it will melt, how this snow is distributed throughout the territory, the snow does not lie evenly layer all over the pool, and even this. huge, it needs to be measured, it needs to be measured with new technologies, mainly methods, forecasts that exist, they are based on data received from weather stations, yes, yes.

solving some equations, that's another thing it’s not enough, you need to understand how the process behaves, because, for example, a so-called ice crust can form, this is when, as a result of melting water, water penetrates to the surface of the soil and forms a frozen layer there in the form of ice, this is what meteorologists call an ice crust , our hydrologists say the same, or

a barrier layer may form in the soil when seeped water freezes at a shallow depth. the next portion of water will flow down this specially prepared slope with a very large we have such a term for runoff coefficient and we can observe in such cases a sharp increase in floods, for example, in 1918 in the don basin, it was precisely because of such conditions that a flood occurred that no one knew, the local roshydromed, he corrected it there several times the volume of inflow to the samlyansky reservoir, because it became clear after the fact. that this is how we have, this is the mechanism by which the runoff of the spring flood is formed. mikhail vasilyevich, here’s another one too, probably your method is practiced in hydrology, in fact, physical modeling, in st. petersburg they simulated the flood on tulun, if i understand correctly, in fact, here is a model, such a small, small river, this can somehow help in forecasting.

physical modeling can explain the mechanism of formation of this dangerous thing. action, since, of course, it does not predict the amount of water that flows, that is , the very fact of a catastrophic flood that formed somewhere in the eastern sayan mountains, it has nothing to do with this model, the model allows us to explain why, in fact, this is what happened, which areas of the territory had the strongest impact, which areas of the city territory did not appear at all, for example, we all saw photographs from tolun there... the bridge accumulated a huge amount of floating, floating houses and all kinds of construction debris, with the bridge nothing happened, if somewhere in the conditions of a mountain river this bridge would have been demolished along with it, yes, but it turned out that the hydraulics of this process are such that the main part of the flow went through the built-up part of the city directly into the under-bridge opening of the railway bridge,

that’s where the main ones were, almost everything in that place was washed away, etc. this is exactly what is being studied with mathematical hydrodynamic models, full-scale modeling in a laboratory , physical modeling is a useful thing, but it does not solve the problem of forecasting, it solves the problem of elucidating the mechanism of the impact of a structure on soils, on riverbed processes, yes, they are understandable, understandable , thank you very much, well, how can we do without global warming, how could it not...

well, there are facts confirming that this is indeed the case, for example, on the zeya river , starting in 2000, i think the seventh year, there were three very strong floods, the probability of each of which was previously estimated to be approximately once in 100 years, the question is, what, what happened in this climate system, if before that, that is , in the previous 100 years, it all happened once, here are the subsequent ones...

it is necessary to reproduce these statistics with the necessary reliability, this is what problem, we sometimes record from our observational data, that yes, there is learning on the one hand, on the other hand, for example, in the pool, spring floods. are fading away, here is another problem, clearly a climate mechanism, which suggests that the threat of catastrophic floods in the basins of the south, in the don basins, in those geographical conditions, has weakened, and maybe because water intake is growing there, too the population is increasing, or is it still not, a purely climatic effect, there is a social role there, mainly due to the fact that human influence is increasing due to agricultural technology. that is, we sometimes use such methods of cultivating fields, there is that autumn plowing, the so-called, which leads to the fact that most of the melt water seeps into the soil in the spring and is contained

by the farmer, excuse the word, very good, since a reserve of soil moisture is created , but for the spring flood this means that there is not so much at all; in winter during thaws, almost all of it went to replenish groundwater reserves, and here, in addition , we ourselves.

the hydrometeor was sitting here and said that they the results indicate that either it is not there, or it has remained at the same level, unfortunately, we do not see this yet, for example, we predict, our estimates say that the intensity of short rains in moscow has become greater, like this the structure of the rainfall is very important for us, as for hydrologists, how much precipitation falls there in 15-20-30 minutes, since the time it takes for water to reach moscow, in the city in general, is a maximum of half an hour, according to us.

entrance to the tram or when you have when you cannot come from your water up to your knees, or your car will float away , and only the roof will remain, and then there are many such places in moscow, by the way.

in part, the situation is also, of course, complicated, but not far from critical, of course, not to such an extent, well, the world is changing, the climate is changing, and with it, of course, the hydrological regime is changing, including of russian rivers, and of course, in order to minimize the damage of the diversion disaster, we need to act proactively, develop forecasting methods, protective infrastructure, the chief researcher answered the question of science today institute:

ukrainian troops shelled residential areas of the city of takmag, zaporozhye region. several people died, including one child. this was announced by the head of the region. dozens of residents are seriously injured, rescuers are clearing the rubble, there may be people under them, and several dozen houses are left without gas supply. balesky stressed that all the victims and relatives of the victims will be provided with the necessary assistance; the danger of new attacks in the ssu remains. the russian army inflicted one mass in a week.