iran attacked israel. and heading to the negotiating table, searching for a way out of the ukrainian conflict. materials of our program.

criminal donald trump. fantasy or reality. the process has begun in new york. i have always been confident that no negotiations with the ayatol regime, which cannot be trusted, will provide the slightest guarantee of security. you can’t put the gun on safety, otherwise it’s a waste of time. reza pihlevi. son of the last shah of iran, mahammadali zapehlivi, during last year's historic visit to israel at the invitation of the government. the crown prince, this is what he calls himself: he assured his interlocutors that when the iranian people are freed from the rule of mul will restore the monarchy, iran will become a faithful partner of the jewish state. you can’t think of a better gift for these same mules; a representative of the hated shah family embraces

netanyahu and participates in a ceremony with far-right israeli ministers. iran launched a demonstrative strike against israel in response to the destruction of an iranian diplomatic facility in damascus and the death of several high-ranking military officers of the islamic revolutionary guard corps. everyone was waiting for the iranian move with bated breath. will the act of retaliation become the beginning of a big regional war, then also.

and how it will respond to a direct attack by iran on its territory, albeit a very limited one. arcadio iskuel from kostorica. war or diplomacy? who will win? world leaders are trying to prevent a major war in the middle east, apparently with varying degrees of success. osama hajjaj from jordan. iranian attack on israel starring people like benjamin netanyahu and joe biden. an extremely militant caricature. and this is a drawing by paola caliri from germany, called awaiting retribution, an extreme emotional work, conveying the feeling of the iranian leadership, well, as the artist sees it, marco de angeli from italy, another emotional drawing, entitled briefly, at the negotiating table, and indeed, add there's nothing to it, life. in a heated world at

the turn of the era, they teach one thing: nothing can be ruled out , especially a major conflict, even if no one strives for it, trying not to cross the threshold of the irreversible. iran and the israeli confrontation are the main nerve of regional politics: the parties take irreconcilable positions, but are aware of the consequences of the confrontation getting out of control. the ideal option is the so-called proxy war, confronting.

costs, both material and human, on the one hand, on the other hand, this is all, this, this allows it to conduct the attacking side, the so-called policy, plausible deniability, that is, it is not us, iran, and it is very good at this game in the region, if you look at this scatterings of its proxies, be it hezbollah in lebanon, and the shiite groups of kataev, hezbullah in iraq. the houthis, the houthis in yemen, that is, this game is going on here, using this, this proxy network in the region. the main task is to maintain a balance between prudence and the need to save face. iran is a grandmaster in this

genre, but his opponent is no stranger. israel is playing a game of containment and is seeking to establish new rules for regional confrontation. test the limits of iran's strategic patience, more precisely the limits of its capabilities. the israelis destroyed the leaders of hamas in beirut, the leaders of hezbollah, and killed many people in syria. iran did nothing, only threatened. we will definitely answer, give it time. this damaged iran's reputation. iran began to be seen as a weakening force. doubts arose within the country about the correctness of the course. questions also began to be asked about iranian groups in neighboring states. the israeli attack on the consulate, in fact on the sovereign territory of iran, was the last straw. now a message appears saying that this the attack on this consulate in damascus was not coordinated with all intelligence services in

israel, that is, according to recent reports, massad was asked, purely theoretically, if we attack, what will happen? yes, that is. the right hand did not know what the left hand was doing, when - the israeli armed forces sent bombardier fighters there to destroy this consulate, supposedly massat was not aware of this attack, this is again a series of these israeli intelligence failures, starting on october 7, yes, about which there is already a lot it was said and written, but this is how it is presented today... in the israeli intelligence community, they say, this is again a mistake, yes, that is , the consequences of this attack, the reaction that occurred on the part of iran, were not fully agreed upon, agreed upon and analyzed. we already saw it after the assassination of qassam soleimani in iraq,

in fact, here the scenario was completely repeated, that is, iran, for the sake of again maintaining its own image in the region and in the domestic political arena and... the leadership was forced to respond to the death of its people in syria, but again, taking into account the difficult economic situation inside the country, in principle, iran’s reluctance to go beyond some red lines, after which, well , only war remains, we actually saw a very beautiful light show, that is, the missiles were launched, the missiles were launched from the territory of iran and iran, yes, he demonstrated that he could have... this potential, that he could, in principle , disrupt the defense, the air defense of israel, but in principle, again , there was nothing new in this, that the iron dome can be overloaded, let’s say, by launching several waves, drones, missiles, but

this has already been known for quite a long time, that is, iran has simply promoted itself beautifully, so to speak, the limiters are red lines that cannot be crossed, and israel is trying to provoke it, to understand the enemy's capabilities. however, this logic also applies to iran; it is also interested in the enemy’s capabilities. it was very important for iran to generally find out about the state of israel’s missile defense and air defense, that is, it had, of course, that is general idea, but like everyone else, that is, not, that is, that is, that there are some kind of anti-aircraft missiles. complexes, and, well , all the exact information, even about what these pro systems are, well, about their characteristics, is still in open data, that is , well, there is no exact data in open sources, accordingly iran, to a certain extent, carried out reconnaissance in force, that is, he roughly calculated - the outfit of forces, which he

could assume at a minimum, in order to penetrate the pro system, that is, the israeli one, and see in general what will happen, that is, the whole reaction. accordingly, well, that is, all the systems of these air defense, missile defense, air force, that is, israel, well, plus the united states also helped israel there, and other countries there provided significant assistance, that is, in this regard. iran, of course , this, that is, achieved a result, that is , it turned out that even this limited strike, that is, of course, most of the target there was intercepted, but still it was, that is, part of the missiles broke through there, that is, there were visible, that is, hits, that is, that is, iran, in principle, saw that even such a limited number of forces was enough for some of the missiles to break through. iran began developing its own ballistic missiles in the second half of the seventies, under

shah rizavi. some technologies were purchased from israel, with which the monarch had excellent relations. today, half a century later, iran produces its own ballistic missiles. it all started with a deep modernization of chinese, north korean or soviet models. the first ballistic missile shihhab-1 appeared at the end eighties. it was modernized. an analogue of the soviet r-17 missile and the north korean hwasongson-5, range up to 350 km, in the nineties it was replaced by the shihab-2, in the ninety-eighth , the shihab-3 was presented at a military parade, which with a ton of warhead could fly up to 2,000 km, but these were liquid rockets that took a long time to prepare for launch. at the beginning of the 2000s , solid-fuel medium-range ballistic missiles appeared in iran.

iran bombed islamic caliphate targets in syria and attacked a us air force base in iraq. in on the night of april 14, during an attack on israel, iran used its most powerful weapons. range up to 1700 km. from the moment of launch, this missile can be controlled throughout its flight until it hits the target. in addition to them , 30 pavi cruise missiles from the samar family with a range of 1650 km were launched. they are in service with the islamic revolutionary guard corps. the wings of the missiles can be folded during flight, which increases their maneuverability. in february 2023, presenting. pava missile, iranian media emphasized its ability to reach israel,

after all, the distance from tehran to tel aviv by air is only 1,600 km. also, during the last attack on israel, in addition to missiles , various models of drones were used in large numbers. among them are kamikaze shahed 129, 136 and 238 drones, with a range of up to 2.0 km, capable of carrying up to 50 kg of explosives. yes, iran did not use all its capabilities, and it specifically wanted to avoid causing real damage, because it knew that israel would then respond with the involvement of its allies, that is, the desire to rewrite the rules of containment, but without taking risks the fact that israel will undertake to respond to the fullest extent. and yet, expert observers are convinced that iran’s capabilities are not so devastating. maybe not crushing, but not at all insignificant, iran announced them

loudly. apparently, iran's reserves of medium-range ballistic missiles are many times higher than the reserves of anti-missile missiles that israel has, because these are also much larger in the number of launchers that it can, that is, iran can simultaneously produce in salvos a large number of missiles and continue these salvos for a longer period of time, that is.

it is used to intercept short-range unguided missiles and drones, mainly those launched by hamas, islamic jihad or hezbollah. the dome was developed by israeli specialists with us support. the first battery was deployed in may 2011 near the city of bersheva. israel managed to shoot down about 90% of all missiles, and the complex

coped with the tasks until last year’s attack on october 7. another spyder air defense system, one designed to defend against attacks airplanes, helicopters, bombers, cruise missiles, drones, but very little is known about its use. the next level is the david farewell system, developed jointly with the american corporation rayturn, the creator of the patriot complex. it is designed to intercept ballistic and coral missiles at a distance of 40 to 300 km. highest level. long-range interception systems headc or strela, two and three, created by israel jointly with the us missile defense agency. they can destroy targets at a distance of up to 3,000 km. these complexes were, in particular , used to intercept long -range missiles launched by the yemeni houthis. israel has old, but quite

reliable american patriot batteries, which appeared back in 1991 for... protection against iraqi skat missiles. on the night of april 14, israel was fired upon from the territory of four countries. iran, iraq, lebanon and yemen. according to tsahal, almost all the missiles were shot down, but his allies actively helped him in this. more than 70 drones and three ballistic missiles were intercepted by ships and aircraft of the us navy, in the eastern mediterranean. dozens of iranian drones were shot down over iraq and... denmark, in addition, british fighters and the jordanian air force were brought in to repel the air attack. the anti-missile system worked flawlessly, the israelis say, but the residue remained. a single strike is one thing, but a massive

missile strike, plus a massive strike with the help of drones and cruise missiles, is another thing. respectively.

that is, after all, it’s especially in reflection, for example, attacks by drones and drones, for the reason that it took them quite a long time to fly from injury, accordingly, it turns out that the air defense force and the us air force, which are stationed there in iraq and neighboring countries, they played the role of, well, it turns out the system early warning, and at the same time the system, that is, air defense, is not obtained outside the borders of israel itself, that is, they started. the grip of these drones and other things from afar, this of course helped very seriously, helped israel in the sense that before israel, well, closer to those to to israel, when the israeli air defense system itself was connected, this.

jordan, saudi arabia, egypt, countries that took a direct part in repelling this attack. it's not strange, or maybe it's not strange at all. jordan, so it generally shot down flying objects with both its air defense and its aviation, saudi arabia has already officially announced that it transmitted data in real time from its radars to israel, which means, oh, these same flying objects, and egypt too took a certain part in this process, this allows us to speculate a little on the topic of the fact that it is still israel.

return the situation to the state before october 2023 and continue to negotiate with israel, suffice it to say that, for example, the same saudi arabia, at the moment any pro-palestinian, let’s say, actions, even wearing the palestinian keffiyeh in some places are prohibited, so that simply no, no do not accidentally involve the same suudis in a more active discourse regarding the actions of the israeli authorities in gaza. iran's main target is not israel, but arab countries, saudi arabia, emirates and others. you intended to unite with israel against

me, you wanted to weaken iran using deterrence methods, we have arsenals that reach tel aviv, so think about the fate of dubai or riyadh. this was the main meaning of the actions, and i think it was perceived by the recipients. in this sense, iran achieved its goal, but at too high a cost. it could have been done differently. all allies, starting with the united states, urged israel to respond carefully. apparently, he did this, and this is understandable, because israel has already achieved an important result. two weeks ago, before iran struck, israel was almost completely isolated internationally. once iran used force, everyone again showed support for israel, including the us congress. even those. who previously opposed military assistance, israel understands that this is an opportunity to regain the sympathy of the united states and europe, without which it cannot do. now

even arab countries, like saudi arabia and jordan, are openly declaring: “we helped repel an iranian drone strike, then israel needs to strengthen this prototype of a new alliance, not undermine it. and, of course, it is very important that now everyone is not talking about what is happening in the gas, not about '. everyone confidently declares their success and the failure of the enemy, everyone demonstrates combativeness, fearing to overdo it, everyone wants to act cautiously, but is worried

about losing face, everyone has an agenda, multi-layered: they think one thing, say another, do a third, this is a typical modern conflict . after advertising about whether there is still room for diplomacy in such a conflict. friend, hello, as promised, today we are preparing pilaf, hey, hey, it’s not the first day, oh, i need to transfer money home, by the way, it’s better to transfer with vtb online, it’s faster and more convenient, thanks for teaching me, who else taught who? , vtb, together everything will work out, one of my friends is endlessly on social networks. because the megaphone gives everyone unlimited access to social networks, and regular subscribers also receive unlimited access to video, connect megapower and there will be a jaga jega only in

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profitable, alpha profitable. this week in the american magazine foreign affairs published a detailed article by sam charap and sergei radchenko, who analyzes the negotiations between the delegations of russia and ukraine in march and april of 2022, the very ones that could have culminated in the istanbul agreements to end the military conflict, but did not end in anything. the authors believe that in conditions of hardly surmountable contradictions and under extremely unfavorable external circumstances, fierce fighting, the parties were closer to a compromise than one might imagine. maybe, someday we will know the details of the crisis management of that time. for now, the abstract idea of ​​negotiations is in the air, although even their subject is unclear.

we invite you to speculate on the phenomenon of diplomacy in modern conflicts. our good friend nikolai selaev, he is not only a serious scholar of international affairs, but also the owner of valuable experience, participation in hopeless negotiations, namely the minsk process. kohl, hello, hello, let's start with this practical aspect, the cessation of hostilities in the conflict is what should be the preliminary conditions of negotiations or, on the contrary, the result of these negotiations? i think the difficulty, the situation , is that we have already tried both of these in the 10 years that this conflict has been going on.