this is important when planning work in this area. i ask you to take into account such pragmatic, balanced approaches in parliamentary diplomacy. increase efforts in this direction, including developing contacts with our friends and partners within the eu, csto, cis, sco, and of course, such a promising, growing association as brix. moreover, this year there are already plans under our chairmanship. tenth anniversary brex parliamentary forum. dear colleagues and friends, volume the work ahead is very big. i ask you to consider as quickly as possible, while carefully and professionally, federal and regional laws related to the implementation of our priorities, the achievement of national development goals, to actively use modern technological capabilities in the legislative process, digital platforms for...

the position of the council of legislators is also very important. dear colleagues, in conclusion, i would like to congratulate you all on the upcoming holidays, on victory day, which is sacred to us all. and, of course, i wish you success in upcoming large-scale work. in the interests of russia and our people, i look forward to continuing the closest partnership with the federal assembly, with regional legislators, and colleagues in local authorities. all the best to you, thank you for your attention, thank you. this was a broadcast from the tauride palace in st. petersburg, now on our channel there is a broadcast from the central bank. 4.5% after 6.3% in

february, seasonally adjusted, but one-time factors made a significant contribution to this slowdown, in particular fruit and vegetable products became cheaper, which is not entirely typical for early spring. in april, we may see slightly higher price dynamics than in march, while the general downward trend in the current rate of price growth will continue. most measures of sustained inflation also fell in march, with our estimate being closer to 6% annualized. the reduction in price pressure is also indicated by the population's inflation expectations, which have been declining for 4 months in a row. however, we do not yet see economic trends like typically characteristic of sustained disinflation. demand growth continues to outpace supply. this is

a significant source of inflationary pressure. taking into account actual data on economic activity, in the updated forecast we have extended the trajectory of inflation’s convergence to the target. this year prices will increase by 4.3, 4.8%. the inflation forecast for the next 2 years was kept unchanged at 4%. second is the economy. after a slight slowdown at the end of the year, the economy is back on track. growing confidently. the growth in consumption in january-february is significant exceeded our forecast. labor market rigidity is increasing, reflecting increased demand for labor. this is typical for almost all regions, as can be read about in the april regional economics report. based on the current situation in the economy, in the base scenario we have increased our estimate of gdp growth to 2.5-3.5% for the current year. keeping the forecast

at 1-2% next. in this scenario , the economy will begin to move to a more balanced growth rate from the second quarter. we cannot rule out too slow disinflation maintaining the current key rate until the end of the year. another scenario is also possible, which we discussed as an alternative. in it , the growth in demand for goods and services will continue to significantly exceed the possibilities

for expanding production. such overheating will be signaled by a rapid expansion of consumer activity and lending, and increased labor market rigidity. all this will affect... the dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations. as a result, if the disinflation process stops, we do not exclude an increase in the key rate. i would like to emphasize that this scenario is not basic. in any scenario, the structural transformation of the economy will continue. the rapid growth of investment is partly due to the restoration of the potential that the economy lost due to the pandemic in 2020 and due to the geopolitical shock in 22. but the main reason is precisely the structural growth of investment activity, it is due to the fact that the economy is now more focused on the domestic market, and the share of net exports is declining. the growth of domestic investment will be facilitated by a significant volume

corporate profits. over the past 12 months, the consolidated financial result of russian companies reached almost 34 trillion rubles. country's demands. the state continues to have a great influence on economic activity, many companies focus on it, but government demand is less sensitive to the key rate than demand from the private sector, which means that the key rate affects part of the demand in the economy only indirectly, therefore, to ensure the price stability may require higher rates in economy, we will update perhaps... we will increase the assessment of the neutral key rate when preparing the main directions of monetary policy. third: the level of tightness of monetary conditions has generally not changed since march, although the dynamics varied according to different indicators. since our last meeting, ofz yields have increased,

mostly in the segment of long-term securities. as a result, the inversion of the curve decreased. there is no decrease in activity in the financial market. high profits of companies in recent years allow them to attract and equity and debt financing, despite tightening pricing conditions. credit continues to grow at a rapid pace, and the company's demand for long-term loans remains high, which they attract to finance investment projects. the retail segment is expanding primarily through auto loans and credit cards. as expected, there was some cooling in the market flow. today we made a decision to further tighten macroprudential measures in retail lending. from july 1, premiums for risk ratios for consumer loans with the full cost of the loan from 25 to

40%. this decision was made in response to signals about the accumulation of riskier loans in banks' portfolios. early indicators of credit. quality shows an increase in overdue debt on loans issued since october last year, also since july, and from july 1, we are introducing for the first time surcharges on car loans with a debt burden indicator above 50%. these measures are taken into account in the forecast and today’s decision on the key rate. we raised the economy's credit forecast by 2% points to 8-13% this year, taking into account. next year. saving activity of the population remains high. income growth, including wages, allows citizens to save more and spend more at the same time.

as a result, even as the saving rate increases, consumption continues to grow rapidly. let me move on to external conditions. the world economy continues to grow at a high rate, though. there were signs of a slowdown. on average, prices for russian export goods have increased since the beginning of the year. the limiting factor for foreign trade remains increasing sanctions pressure. the threat of secondary sanctions, and the need to adjust logistics and payment chains to accommodate this, was likely partly responsible for the faster decline in imports in the first quarter. exports turned out better than expected due to the expansion of physical volumes of non-oil and gas exports, as well as due to rising oil prices. taking into account actual data and prospects for global economic growth, we have updated the balance of payments forecast.

a few words about the risks to the forecast: they are still biased towards pro-inflationary, first of all, this is the preservation of overheating of domestic demand.

under their influence, inflation will drop to 4.3-4.8% by the end of this year, and we are ready to keep the key rate at high levels for as long as it takes for inflation to return to its target on a sustainable basis. the forecast for the average annual key rate for the twenty -fourth and twenty-fifth years has been increased; it will be in the range of 15-16% per annum this year. and 10-12% per annum next year, thank you for your attention, colleagues, let’s move on to

to your questions, please introduce yourself, name your publication, and rita, please, first row, thank you very much, rita shpilevsko, tas agency, please tell me whether the issue of raising the rate was raised at today’s meeting, and you also said earlier that the peak the overheating of the economy has passed, but what is the assessment now, is it possible what awaits us ahead? new peak, thank you, the vast majority of meeting participants were in favor of maintaining the rate, while everyone agreed that there was room for a rate reduction decreased, but there were separate opinions on raising the key rate, as for... overheating and the peak of overheating, we continue to believe that the peak of overheating has passed in the fall, but

overheating persists, that is, demand growth continues to outstrip the possibilities for expanding supply, we believe that this the gap under the influence of monetary policy will narrow and this will be accompanied by a slowdown in sustainable inflation... pressure, colleagues, please, your questions, nastya, first row, saveliva anastasia, interfax, can we consider your forecast for inflation 4.3, 4.8%, yet inflation is close to the target, since the central point of this range is 4.5%, and do we understand correctly that now your expectations for... the beginning of the key rate reduction cycle have shifted from the second quarter to the third,

that is, this is more likely to happen in the third quarter, and not in the second, and about consumer lending, you have already mentioned that today you have increased risk coefficients, risk coefficient premiums, but many experts note that -credit policy so far has little effect on the economy , including lending, and they even compare it with the effect of dzhenibekov, such an astronaut and... don’t you think that some other measures need to be taken, in particular for consumer lending, for example, to increase macro-limits on third quarter, you should have a decision in may. thank you very much for your questions, we believe that by the end of the year, the current rate of price growth, the current rate of price growth, this means, the monthly rate month to month, will be at 4% or even lower, as for when this will happen

possible easing or reduction of the rate.

the next question is from vladivostok. andrey pushkarev, vladivostok newspaper. one gets the feeling that the most important indicators for the bank of russia are inflation and the key rate. these indicators are closely related to us, like siamese twins. and all financial policy revolves around these indicators. or maybe it’s time to look at the situation more broadly. for example, how does the level of the

same key rate affect economic growth, living standards, etc. and if the rate is high before understood, based on a macroeconomic assessment of the general equilibrium in the economy, where does high inflation come from? high inflation is an indicator that demand growth is outstripping the possibility of a commensurate expansion of supply, this means that the growth of loan income exceeds the rate at which

enterprises are able to increase the production of goods and services, we use our tools... our tools are the impact on growth credit, we can only significantly influence demand, the opinion that the availability of credit will quickly change the situation with supply, with the growth of production of goods and services, but it is indeed consistent with such everyday experience, but if you look at the macro levels, then we can say that it is wrong, if in the economy all resources, primarily labor, are already involved, it takes a lot of time.

this will gradually slow down the investment process, so the main way to maintain low inflation is to bring demand in line with the possibilities of expanding the supply of goods and services, and if income growth is high, company profits will too tall. as it is happening now, their contribution to the growth of millet is higher than usual, then credit should grow at a more moderate pace, savings should be higher than...

than the dynamics of gdp, and we see this from the data of the first quarter of this year. all indicators show that growth remains strong and the growth rate has slowed significantly. compared to the second half of last year, well, when they talk about other instruments besides the key rate, we are usually offered to use two types of such instruments, these are

influence on the exchange rate, fixed rate, managed rate, if the rate does not change, then there will be no inflation, but this is not true, the source of inflation is the imbalance of demand and supply opportunities, artificial fixation,

the difference between the long-term exchange rate is the result of the difference between the level inflation of our internal the rest of the world. they also offer us targeted emission so that we distribute cheap or free money to certain sectors, certain enterprises, but the consequence of this will be worsening credit conditions for the rest of the economy, the rest of the economy will pay for this.

is there a possibility that, in principle, the indicators that we see now on an annualized basis at the end of the year will remain at approximately the same level, or is this option

completely excluded? thank you, regarding the first question, we are analyzing, we believe that it is correct to analyze the labor market as a whole, because wage growth generally reflects the labor shortage.

and the fact that labor productivity is not keeps pace with wage growth, this is a source of inflationary pressure, as for the annual inflation rate, well, in our opinion, we have already given our forecast for the end of the year 4.3 4.8%, inflation, current inflation will be...

despite this adjustments for gdp growth, for the growth of consumer activity, the forecast for imports was raised quite a bit. how do you explain this particular adjustment ? is it connected only with the worsening of sanctions, with increased sanctions pressure, or do you take into account some other factors? factors. thank you. imports are influenced primarily by domestic demand, and imports quickly recovered and grew strongly precisely because

we had a high demand.

we haven’t heard yet, we’ll connect later, our colleague, please, maria, afilushina maria bitkogan, if the current exchange of assets in the amount of up to 100,000 rubles goes successfully according to plan, then how long before we can count on a further exchange of assets with higher limits, and what for this is necessary, thank you.