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May 7, 2024
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the fed says restrictive the fed says they will be dialing back restrictions.he marketplace is pricing that in so it all makes sense to me. but where my ax to grind is, is that the inverted yield curve itself turbo charges any given level of restriction on the policy rate, because it is effectively a tax on the banking system, or put differently, a tax on maturity transformation, the old fashioned banking business of borrowing short and lending long i think the fed is restrictive not just because of the level of the policy rate, but because the fed and the market anticipate dialing back that restriction, and you've got an inverted curve. i think the inverted curve is effectively an instrument of restraint. >> do you think it's weird that they're still anticipating an economic slowdown when we've been waiting for a couple of years at this point and still jobless claims are at 201,000? >> i think the market is anticipating a slowdown, but not a precipitous slowdown i think the inverted curve, the tightness in credit conditions for main street business, not for wa
the fed says restrictive the fed says they will be dialing back restrictions.he marketplace is pricing that in so it all makes sense to me. but where my ax to grind is, is that the inverted yield curve itself turbo charges any given level of restriction on the policy rate, because it is effectively a tax on the banking system, or put differently, a tax on maturity transformation, the old fashioned banking business of borrowing short and lending long i think the fed is restrictive not just...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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for a long time we had a lot of mail from people at the fed -- to the fed saying you should raise interest rates because we are not getting anything on our checking accounts. we solved that problem. senator warnock: i don't think we are asking for that. given the reality -- let me pivot, the monetary policy report states that while demand for housing has fallen, the strong labor market has kept prices high, that matches what i have been seeing in georgia. too many folks can't afford a home. according to the monetary policy report, mortgage rates were averaging around 7% last month. that's tough for lower income home buyers. increases of just a percentage point or two can be the difference between owning a home or not. are you concerned about this interplay between lower demand yet stubbornly high prices and what it means for folks trying to buy a home? what do you think is driving these high prices? chair powell: the housing market is in a very challenging situation right now. you have this longer run housing shortage, but at the same time you've got a bunch of things that have to do with
for a long time we had a lot of mail from people at the fed -- to the fed saying you should raise interest rates because we are not getting anything on our checking accounts. we solved that problem. senator warnock: i don't think we are asking for that. given the reality -- let me pivot, the monetary policy report states that while demand for housing has fallen, the strong labor market has kept prices high, that matches what i have been seeing in georgia. too many folks can't afford a home....
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May 23, 2024
05/24
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treasuries following after fed minutes showed officials wondering if -- the fed may prefer to wait untilf the way. if either side wins a clear victory u.s. fiscal policy may become more expansionary again, with significant tax cuts or further spending increases. holger schmieding joins us. talk to me about the prospect of rate hikes next year. and imposing making a case yesterday. holger: i don't quite believe it, because we rarely get in the u.s. an election result that is clear-cut, that one of the two sides, where congress is in control, really do something dramatic. we had huge fiscal initiatives in the u.s. right after the pandemic, and everybody was panicking. we knew to do something big, but now with that unusual situation over we will likely be in congress -- regardless of the election result, into the kind of gridlock were not much happens. that means the fiscal impulse which is currently propping up the u.s. economy will weaken over time, and that argues for rate cuts next year rather than rate hikes. jonathan: what kind of budget deficits are you expecting? we are running 6% t
treasuries following after fed minutes showed officials wondering if -- the fed may prefer to wait untilf the way. if either side wins a clear victory u.s. fiscal policy may become more expansionary again, with significant tax cuts or further spending increases. holger schmieding joins us. talk to me about the prospect of rate hikes next year. and imposing making a case yesterday. holger: i don't quite believe it, because we rarely get in the u.s. an election result that is clear-cut, that one...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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real fed funds rate. and to me the level of that is as high as it has been in some time, so i feel like we're in a -- >> so let me respond to my agood milliken conference, major comment was that they are not tight. we think monday tar policy works through financial conditions pan if the business community feels like we're not as tight, maybe we are not as estrictive >> so do you want to go higher then >> i'm in a wait and see mode. let's get more data. >> but not reeling it out. >> nobody can real it out. >> nothing is never not on the table. and the job of the central banker is to be paranoid in everything >> i don't like tying our hands even partially getting a lot of data and more information before the next meeting much less for the rest of the year i think that -- i don't want to speculate about the conditions what we need that the data dogs need to do some sniffing and figure out are we kind of beat on the path like what we saw last year where inflation fell almost as much as it has fallen without a
real fed funds rate. and to me the level of that is as high as it has been in some time, so i feel like we're in a -- >> so let me respond to my agood milliken conference, major comment was that they are not tight. we think monday tar policy works through financial conditions pan if the business community feels like we're not as tight, maybe we are not as estrictive >> so do you want to go higher then >> i'm in a wait and see mode. let's get more data. >> but not reeling...
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housing is a incredible dilemma for the fed.monetary policy alone can solve this and a large part of the reason because this is not just an asset or an investment class, this is shelter. this is with people live and it seems like right now outside of building a lot more of supply the tradeoffs are we have to sort of booed people out of their homes to get open availability for younger people on, you know, it is like, sort of like a no-win scenario. that's why i think this has been such a hot topic and sew frustrating for so many people. charles: ironically a lot of people thought maybe the fed could come to the rescue. as lot as everything has been though, we're seeing bifurcation. this is something you tweet about, write about all the time. i want to understand, how do you explain in huge surge in seriously underwater homes in many states? >> yeah. the data just came in and it is an alarming headline but the actual reality the number is 2.%, which is still below pre-pandemic let alone anywhere near where we were at in 2007 but i
housing is a incredible dilemma for the fed.monetary policy alone can solve this and a large part of the reason because this is not just an asset or an investment class, this is shelter. this is with people live and it seems like right now outside of building a lot more of supply the tradeoffs are we have to sort of booed people out of their homes to get open availability for younger people on, you know, it is like, sort of like a no-win scenario. that's why i think this has been such a hot...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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dallas fed president lori logan said rates may not be restrictive enough, so you are getting some fed if speak saying maybe rates need to stay higher e for longer -- jackie: i think the fed knows it's not really coming out with what it's going to do, and i think the markets got it wrong once again. we've seen this trend. market gets excited about something, it gets excited about what it wants to hear, not listening to actually -- brian: right. and did not pay a lot of attention to that consumer sentiment number. taylor: bingo. and the inflation expectations in that number too, really worrisome. not worry esome is charles payne. "with making money" starts now. charles: thank you all very much. the market worry when it wants to worry or when it's too late. i'm charles payne, this is "making money." breaking right now, we are seeing a bifurcation in this market. it's been an amazing may, but it's been stagger all of the names you normally wouldn't hear about like utilities. when will the magnificents step up, because at some point it's going to be needed to keep this rally going. althoug
dallas fed president lori logan said rates may not be restrictive enough, so you are getting some fed if speak saying maybe rates need to stay higher e for longer -- jackie: i think the fed knows it's not really coming out with what it's going to do, and i think the markets got it wrong once again. we've seen this trend. market gets excited about something, it gets excited about what it wants to hear, not listening to actually -- brian: right. and did not pay a lot of attention to that consumer...
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May 2, 2024
05/24
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the fed, keeping rates unchanged.owell sang the next move is not likely to be a hike, but avoided offering a timeline for rate hikes. andrew gives us a base case for cuts in 2024, more than priced by interest rate markets. andrew, hello, let's go straight to it. forecast into 2024, not consensus. andrew: the fed cutting this year, it was clear from chair powell yesterday that the next move is a cut and the way that they get there is the inflation data gives them the opportunity. i don't think it will go to 2%, but it will be slow enough to let them cut and the label market will begin a weaker. we heard that from chair powell, saying that the trend is towards a weaker labor market. jonathan: this is your signature call, the weakness of the labor market. do you see it now? andrew: what we heard from chair powell is that with the dual mandates in the better balance, in their words, inflation has come down. not 2%, but it has come down. when they look at employment, he highlighted these things, look at the climate board.
the fed, keeping rates unchanged.owell sang the next move is not likely to be a hike, but avoided offering a timeline for rate hikes. andrew gives us a base case for cuts in 2024, more than priced by interest rate markets. andrew, hello, let's go straight to it. forecast into 2024, not consensus. andrew: the fed cutting this year, it was clear from chair powell yesterday that the next move is a cut and the way that they get there is the inflation data gives them the opportunity. i don't think...
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May 7, 2024
05/24
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that's when the fed will consider its next move.hink it's important it's not just reprint softer than it is, but i think it is soft prints. we are still adding jobs. it's getting lower. it is true the unemployment rate kicked up been i think we got a soft headline ism data but the prices paid component was strong. we could be in a dynamic where we do see the economy slowed a little bit, which might see the fed say we will cut, it's a timing issue, december, next year, that might cap the front end. as long as prices are sticky, we are seeing sticky inflation and we see the curve steepen. that will become a bit more dynamic. rather than having a strong directional yield, i think the strong field at the moment is steeper in the curve. i think we finally see this record long and fruited curve finally ending its inversion in the coming months. haslinda: we have been talking about the yen for forever. despite the two interventions, suppose it interventions, which we saw, the yen did not manage to get to 152. >> bearish, bearish, bears the
that's when the fed will consider its next move.hink it's important it's not just reprint softer than it is, but i think it is soft prints. we are still adding jobs. it's getting lower. it is true the unemployment rate kicked up been i think we got a soft headline ism data but the prices paid component was strong. we could be in a dynamic where we do see the economy slowed a little bit, which might see the fed say we will cut, it's a timing issue, december, next year, that might cap the front...
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May 21, 2024
05/24
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what's go to our fed speak and an fed president rafael double down on his mantra. loretta says three rate cuts in 2024 are no longer appropriate. loretta: i was on the record saying i was at the median, three. developments i have seen right now i would not think that is appropriate because inflation risks. >> anything can happen. inflation will fall into 2025 and i think it will take a wild for us to get to 2% but i think we will get there. tom: ok, let's bring in mark cranfield in singapore. we heard from loretta messner. expectations on the number of cuts. dot plots signaled three, what are traders looking for? mark: traders are looking for one and two rate cuts by the end of the year. probably in november. the fed meeting coming up is the one, giannis the next time and it will give us a new outlook. there is no way they can go to three. we've reached the end of the year and they were projecting this in january or march. data has not worked out in their favor. they had to dial back and that is why your hearing a longer -- higher for longer mantra. people are doin
what's go to our fed speak and an fed president rafael double down on his mantra. loretta says three rate cuts in 2024 are no longer appropriate. loretta: i was on the record saying i was at the median, three. developments i have seen right now i would not think that is appropriate because inflation risks. >> anything can happen. inflation will fall into 2025 and i think it will take a wild for us to get to 2% but i think we will get there. tom: ok, let's bring in mark cranfield in...
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it should leave the door open for fed rate cuts later this year.e can debate on when the, but i think that's still the likely course of action. charles: what if the ship goes too far? and i'm going to point to ism numbers. >> sure. charles: manufacturing went into contraction, which has been in contraction, but there's certain parts of it that are really starting to struggle a lot, even more. but services today overshadowed by this jobs report, i thought it was somewhat of a shocking number, contracted for the first time after 15 months in a row. and the part where both of them are linked, manufacturing and services, prices keep going up. that that's a heck of a combination. so the headline is coming down, but the prices are going up. that's the exact opposite of what we want. that's not a soft landing, is it? >> right. at least to the fest part of your question, when to get concerned, some slowing in employment growth is fine and healthy and goldilocks. i would say look at two things. when employment growth slows further and we get indications tha
it should leave the door open for fed rate cuts later this year.e can debate on when the, but i think that's still the likely course of action. charles: what if the ship goes too far? and i'm going to point to ism numbers. >> sure. charles: manufacturing went into contraction, which has been in contraction, but there's certain parts of it that are really starting to struggle a lot, even more. but services today overshadowed by this jobs report, i thought it was somewhat of a shocking...
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May 8, 2024
05/24
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the fed can and will achieve 2%.he question is, if disinflation is still underway, then maybe it will continue on its own. we can then take that on board. if we need to hold rates where they are for an extended time to tap the brakes on the economy, or if we need a raise, we will do what we need to do to get inflation back down. >> i will ask about 2% and i no one of the fed stands 52%. i talked to people and their cost of capital, they are basing it on close to two or 3% rate. they are saying, the 2% target, that needs to come up, that is not the reality long term, at least not for the folks in this room. >> i disagree with that. ultimately the central bank, whether the fed, ecb or the bank of england can determine whatever the inflation rate is. over time, if they conduct their policy appropriately, people will come to understand that it will adjust their behavior. we are committed to two percent. we will get to 2% and get the interest rate environment necessary to achieve two percent. haslinda: minneapolis fed pre
the fed can and will achieve 2%.he question is, if disinflation is still underway, then maybe it will continue on its own. we can then take that on board. if we need to hold rates where they are for an extended time to tap the brakes on the economy, or if we need a raise, we will do what we need to do to get inflation back down. >> i will ask about 2% and i no one of the fed stands 52%. i talked to people and their cost of capital, they are basing it on close to two or 3% rate. they are...
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May 14, 2024
05/24
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what i saw the new york fedex pecktations, fed expectations. it was interesting how the labor market cooling. if everything was one-sided we would be talking about recession or inflation. >> i don't think liz is ready to give up the conversation. >> i am not a quitter. >> am i wrong? [ laughter ] >> no, i am not -- am i wrong? >> i am not ready to give up on the idea that inflation is not solved and it could reignite. especially if gdp growth reignites. the growth we saw in the first quarter was welcome print, should have been one to the fed, they have been wanting this below trend growth. the idea now they are thinking maybe we go back towards trend is not great for inflation. so, i am not ready to give up on that yet because there is, i think, at this point, a bigger risk in cutting too soon. i don't think they are going to. i think they are going to wait and do it too late if anything. i think there is a bigger risk in cutting too soon. the other thing that is interesting if you look at financial conditions, no matter the metric. a bench of
what i saw the new york fedex pecktations, fed expectations. it was interesting how the labor market cooling. if everything was one-sided we would be talking about recession or inflation. >> i don't think liz is ready to give up the conversation. >> i am not a quitter. >> am i wrong? [ laughter ] >> no, i am not -- am i wrong? >> i am not ready to give up on the idea that inflation is not solved and it could reignite. especially if gdp growth reignites. the growth...
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May 27, 2024
05/24
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don't forget we also have some fed speakers due. it looks like the hawks may get more airtime than the doves. just like that, asian equities getting the bed. csi 300 pretty flat. coming off a week when those properties support measures, the skepticism of whether it will be enough, really rain on sentiment. also the taiwan strait tension. among currencies, we are seeing recovery in the yen. cannot say the same for japan's 10 year bonds. continued selling. the expectation of the boj's policy normalization. but i guess to your point about how we are going to be data focused this week, let's flip the board and take a look at what we are seeing out of china. industrial profits rose in that is against the backdrop of exports having returned to growth, domestic demand improving, so some signs of that recovery. haslinda: that's right. lots of data to digest. avril hong, thank you. some of the top economic news we are watching. core pce data. this will be a key indicator for the u.s. of course on the back of uncertainty remaining over when t
don't forget we also have some fed speakers due. it looks like the hawks may get more airtime than the doves. just like that, asian equities getting the bed. csi 300 pretty flat. coming off a week when those properties support measures, the skepticism of whether it will be enough, really rain on sentiment. also the taiwan strait tension. among currencies, we are seeing recovery in the yen. cannot say the same for japan's 10 year bonds. continued selling. the expectation of the boj's policy...
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May 30, 2024
05/24
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even as dave is worry, i'm hearing him say the fed has the treasury back. so i don't know, give us the last word. >> you know, i think that the change to qt was a little bit curious. it was certainly more than had been expected. it was not really consummate with a fed that wanted to seriously bring down its balance sheet. so i think that was taken correctly by the market as something of a dovish signal, even while powell insisted it was not. i am interested this morning, though, in john williams, who gave a speech, i guess it broke this afternoon. he took a rather dovish take on the inflation in the past three months, where he said it did not represent an toeend to the downd progress. he attributed a lot to the second half of last year showing unusually quick declines in infl inflation. in any event, while people are talking a lot about neil kashkari, which i don't get, because i don't think he was that hawkish to begin with, but i think it's rude to think about fed officials and how they talked about the last three months of inflation, and their willingnes
even as dave is worry, i'm hearing him say the fed has the treasury back. so i don't know, give us the last word. >> you know, i think that the change to qt was a little bit curious. it was certainly more than had been expected. it was not really consummate with a fed that wanted to seriously bring down its balance sheet. so i think that was taken correctly by the market as something of a dovish signal, even while powell insisted it was not. i am interested this morning, though, in john...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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this is not good news for the fed. we are seeing a resurgence in inflation, in the manufacturing area. the employment number goes to 48 .6, slightly higher from 47 point four, but it is still below contraction. we do see another decline in job openings. so, at this point, we are seeing fewer job openings and fewer people quitting. first drop in five months. fewer people quitting and fewer job openings. also, less progress towards economic growth from the ism numbers. the fed will definitely take note of that. katie: a busy day. thank you to mike mckee. let's turn to the markets. joining us is the cohead of investments. a great to see you in person. let's talk about sentiment because it feels like it has soured. off by 4% last month. even though you have amazon up 3.5%. >> a continuation of what you have seen for years. the fed itself has a problem because they have to pivot. the underlying economy continues to run high. what stocks are picking up on our that there are signs of weakness. we saw the ceo talking about con
this is not good news for the fed. we are seeing a resurgence in inflation, in the manufacturing area. the employment number goes to 48 .6, slightly higher from 47 point four, but it is still below contraction. we do see another decline in job openings. so, at this point, we are seeing fewer job openings and fewer people quitting. first drop in five months. fewer people quitting and fewer job openings. also, less progress towards economic growth from the ism numbers. the fed will definitely...
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May 6, 2024
05/24
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we've got a couple of fed officials lurking around, waiting to speak in public. there's some consumer confidence along the way. not to mention worries about disney's number. when you look at the survey, dow gaining 107 points, s&p jumping, nasdaq jumping 1.9%. you know we have moved on to an after math of a vicious selloff. a decline here might be occasion to bye bye bye. in other words, maybe the worst is behind us. let's take the quintessential stock of the new year, let's take nvidia. i want you to think of the nvidia ark, it started on march 8th. that's when it peaked and we got a strong report. what's happened since then. nvidia introduced incredibly revolutionary chip called blackwell, far faster than anything that's currently available. put that perspective, let's say i wanted to use an example so it comes to life this way. let's say you want to teach a robot to pitch in major league baseball. right now, they would just pull the first inning. but you show black well, okay, the computer, videos of all the great pictures. load them in, then you soak blackwel
we've got a couple of fed officials lurking around, waiting to speak in public. there's some consumer confidence along the way. not to mention worries about disney's number. when you look at the survey, dow gaining 107 points, s&p jumping, nasdaq jumping 1.9%. you know we have moved on to an after math of a vicious selloff. a decline here might be occasion to bye bye bye. in other words, maybe the worst is behind us. let's take the quintessential stock of the new year, let's take nvidia. i...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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the fed is very close on its target don't get on me -- the fed is not going to solve the inflation problem the american people care about, the price level it's targeting the rate. it's a relatively close on the rate it is not -- i think it feels to panic here >> i want to put in perspective -- i appreciate that i know we have to let you go we will see you later. i will see you right after the chair is done with his news conference when we welcome in jeffrey gundlock i'll let you go. i'm reminded let's not take one report like starbucks and act like it's the end of the world, okay, or the sky is falling. what was it, a week ago, chipotle came out, chipotle came out, and they've raised prices did they come out and suggest that consumers are all of a sudden not buying burrito bowls in the magnitude or for the price that they once were? so perspective is needed why are you smiling at that? >> that's a fair point >> why >> i'm sicynical that if you'rea management, and i'm not saying they're dishonest, i'll blame it on the consumer, not on my operations, not going to blame it on losing substanti
the fed is very close on its target don't get on me -- the fed is not going to solve the inflation problem the american people care about, the price level it's targeting the rate. it's a relatively close on the rate it is not -- i think it feels to panic here >> i want to put in perspective -- i appreciate that i know we have to let you go we will see you later. i will see you right after the chair is done with his news conference when we welcome in jeffrey gundlock i'll let you go. i'm...
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May 28, 2024
05/24
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could mean they were considering a rate hike from the fed.ow, we have seen from powell that the bar to a hike is fairly high and, if anything, they will hold rates longer and starting the cutting cycle sooner esc we skescaped a recession in the eurozone t in china, we are seeing enough stimulus to keep growth around 4% or 5% that, at least, leaves a rosier outlook than four or five months ago. >> we are expecting divergence with the monetary policy across the world, specifically with the eart ecb and the fed. that is the perfect setup for the fx markets for so long, there has been little-to-no volumes will we have a busy summer and busy trading snunts. >> the data is there if growth starts to slow, you could see some big moves along divergent path s for central banks. i think it is range bound. all central banks will cut if they can, but it is clear one per quarter or as the data allows what is holding us back is having a stronger conviction is the u.s. elections in the third and fourth quarter that could keep a lot of people on the sidelines
could mean they were considering a rate hike from the fed.ow, we have seen from powell that the bar to a hike is fairly high and, if anything, they will hold rates longer and starting the cutting cycle sooner esc we skescaped a recession in the eurozone t in china, we are seeing enough stimulus to keep growth around 4% or 5% that, at least, leaves a rosier outlook than four or five months ago. >> we are expecting divergence with the monetary policy across the world, specifically with the...
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May 21, 2024
05/24
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a lot of fed speak.ter that. it shows how different the fed is right now. jonathan: under surveillance this morning, shares rising in the market. better than expected sales for the first quarter. target getting more insight into the consumer. elsewhere they say they have the capability to disable chipmaking machines in the event that china invades taiwan. they have reassured officials of their ability to remotely disable machines for which tsmc is the biggest client. they would remotely force a shut off. a -- quite the development in the last day or so. >> it was one of their biggest risks. they are so exposed to taiwan. it is why you see all of these concerns coming from the legs of the white house when it comes to companies like nvidia. if there is a chinese attack on taiwan -- he said he wanted to unify the country. jonathan: earnings tomorrow afternoon. all speaking today. speaking to the cleveland fed president yesterday. she said she no longer sees three rate cuts this year. >> it is to close. we j
a lot of fed speak.ter that. it shows how different the fed is right now. jonathan: under surveillance this morning, shares rising in the market. better than expected sales for the first quarter. target getting more insight into the consumer. elsewhere they say they have the capability to disable chipmaking machines in the event that china invades taiwan. they have reassured officials of their ability to remotely disable machines for which tsmc is the biggest client. they would remotely force a...
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May 7, 2024
05/24
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we have another fed speaker speaking today neel kashkari.s that a market mover or have we finally decided it will take longer to cut rates and do you think investors are more focused on the earnings which are surprisingly strong? >> yeah. if i was an investor, i would focus on earnings right now. we are going print to print. from one to another in terms of the market rallying or selling off a little bit we'll see if his words have any bearing on the market. when we see the fed speak, whether kashkari or jp, there is some selling off here. sometimes maybe the fed shouldn't speak and let the market do its thing. >> jp. you have nicknames i like that. thank you very much. >>> coming up on "worldwide exchange," more to come including the one word that investors have to know today. >>> first, a big day for money movers in london annd wall street shares of lucid losing juice and a blowout report from ubs. >>> later, more on what to expect from apple at the event being held lerat today more still ahead on "worldwide exchange." stay with us meets bo
we have another fed speaker speaking today neel kashkari.s that a market mover or have we finally decided it will take longer to cut rates and do you think investors are more focused on the earnings which are surprisingly strong? >> yeah. if i was an investor, i would focus on earnings right now. we are going print to print. from one to another in terms of the market rallying or selling off a little bit we'll see if his words have any bearing on the market. when we see the fed speak,...
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May 29, 2024
05/24
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policies below the fed. even though you can make an argument countries like china, movie thailand, even korea, arguably, given that inflation is at the target or below the target where korea will approach the target fairly soon, they should be a little bit more comfortable about having more independent monetary policy relative to the fed and focus more on their domestic conditions. therefore, they could be for cutting and we think china could cut, thailand could cut and they are not delivering. in the case of korea, even though conditions suggest they could cut, i think this whole dollar environment in the volatility of fx will constrain policies of what be ok will do. we still see room for cutting but part of that his condition is sitting as a house, we are probably the only few expecting the fed could cut as early as july. but i certainly think that gets pushed back given some of the hawkish we are getting out of the fed and the mixed data we will get out of the u.s., that complicates easing outlooks at a
policies below the fed. even though you can make an argument countries like china, movie thailand, even korea, arguably, given that inflation is at the target or below the target where korea will approach the target fairly soon, they should be a little bit more comfortable about having more independent monetary policy relative to the fed and focus more on their domestic conditions. therefore, they could be for cutting and we think china could cut, thailand could cut and they are not delivering....
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May 22, 2024
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jonathan: several fed speakers echoing higher for longer before the fed decision.inking views on the initial rate. good morning to you. what needs to happen between now and the end of july to make this happen? >> like i was saying the peas, it comes down to the data. we could spend all of our time listening to fed speak which is important and gives us guidance but where they will go will depend on the data. we think we will see the softer inflation and softer activity and labor markets. it will probably get less attention because we been so focused on inflation. if you put those together, that will be a pretty powerful signed to the fed that is time to start cutting rates. jonathan: governor waller gave the last inflation print a c+. that's not great. c+ four inflation last month. what needs to happen in the next print? >> if we are going to run that with this analogy, it was interesting because he gave the c+ to the april report but he didn't say would gpa i will need for the next one. i think ab is probably where he wants to be. we are coming in this core pce rat
jonathan: several fed speakers echoing higher for longer before the fed decision.inking views on the initial rate. good morning to you. what needs to happen between now and the end of july to make this happen? >> like i was saying the peas, it comes down to the data. we could spend all of our time listening to fed speak which is important and gives us guidance but where they will go will depend on the data. we think we will see the softer inflation and softer activity and labor markets....
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May 10, 2024
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boosted by the prospect of fed cuts. like commodities, more attractive because of the weaker dollar yesterday. we will dig into the middle east geopolitics in just a moment. let's crop over -- crossover to singapore now. what's happening where you are? avril: we are seeing asia stockmarkets starting the day pretty upbeat thanks to the surge in u.s. jobless claims. those u.s. china tensions really coming to the four. the stock gauge pulled off this session highs. we are seeing the csi 300 still in negative territory. it's being dragged by some of these so-called strategic sectors, related socks -- stocks. despite how we saw the improvement towards the property sector. yet another major city scrapping those homebuying restrictions. notable what we are seeing in the chinese space. as you can see there, the hong saying is the one that's leading the charge. i want to show you what's propping things up. it's your chinese lenders but also hkex. these financial related, dividend related shares. we got reports that the regulators
boosted by the prospect of fed cuts. like commodities, more attractive because of the weaker dollar yesterday. we will dig into the middle east geopolitics in just a moment. let's crop over -- crossover to singapore now. what's happening where you are? avril: we are seeing asia stockmarkets starting the day pretty upbeat thanks to the surge in u.s. jobless claims. those u.s. china tensions really coming to the four. the stock gauge pulled off this session highs. we are seeing the csi 300 still...
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May 24, 2024
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i'm saying the fed is going to win and yesterday's pmi was an outlier. the fed is going to win. it's going their way, but it's like the second inning >> yes >> it's not the phillies, greatest record in baseball. it's not the mets. holy cow no >> if only -- if only he were here >> oh, i did that -- really. how's that >> we think david will be back on tuesday >> my favorite that he does, just so we know is, david, are you paying attention to anything i'm saying what did you say >> he keeps the ball in the air. >> yes, he does, and david's killing paramount wherever he is right now. right now, he's killing paramount. >> maybe we'll talk some box office later this morning. watch bonds. we mentioned that ten-year getting close to 4.5% today as durables did come in a bit warm. 0.7% looking for a decline. stay with us with gold and copper prices pushing towards all time highs, us gold corp. offers investors leverage to both gold and copper at its project, and mining friendly wyoming. u.s. gold corp has a reserve of almost 1.5 million ounces of gold equivalents. permits to mine zero deb
i'm saying the fed is going to win and yesterday's pmi was an outlier. the fed is going to win. it's going their way, but it's like the second inning >> yes >> it's not the phillies, greatest record in baseball. it's not the mets. holy cow no >> if only -- if only he were here >> oh, i did that -- really. how's that >> we think david will be back on tuesday >> my favorite that he does, just so we know is, david, are you paying attention to anything i'm saying...
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May 13, 2024
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i tend to look at the fed funds rate minus inflation and the real fed funds rate.o me, the level of that is as high as it has been in some time i feel like we're in a restrictive territory. >> so the head of gt fx research joins us in studio thank you for the chance to be here i want to start off with the dollar rally which has begun to fade does that rally continue to fade until we see greater prospects of the fed cutting rates >> indeed. i think a couple of drivers to the risk rally and one is the fed's reaction function to the incoming data. it is the case that the fed has started focusing on its so-called dual mandate fed chair powell has been discussing that while trying to bring inflation under control. the markets are pricing in 40 basis points of cuts this year the question ahead of this week's cpi is whether the process of re-pricing of rate cuts from the fed will continue. it could be a key print in that and if our expectations are confirmed, that is the first dip in core cpi since the start of the year after the unwelcome calling of the down trend happen
i tend to look at the fed funds rate minus inflation and the real fed funds rate.o me, the level of that is as high as it has been in some time i feel like we're in a restrictive territory. >> so the head of gt fx research joins us in studio thank you for the chance to be here i want to start off with the dollar rally which has begun to fade does that rally continue to fade until we see greater prospects of the fed cutting rates >> indeed. i think a couple of drivers to the risk...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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more fed speak later. fed speak just repeat the same line again and again. you'll hear from bowman, logan, kashkari and master. we are restrictive it might take more time to just bring inflation down, more time seems to be the frame -- the phrase. dani: we are pleased with literally any other fed speaker and that's always gotten. we don't know what they will do anymore because they don't know what they will do anymore so we get the same reframe. >> a lot of people have been talking about this over the last couple of weeks just the idea we don't have to be afraid of strong data they won't hike but if we get strong data they will ease. how well we set up for that given the move down we've seen in yields across the curve. dani: the animal spirits have been unleashed so this market is set up as if we are in the cutting cycle. if we get anything contradictory what happens to this market where you see these people flood to the bond market because spreads are so thin. you have these companies announcing and acting like cuts are not only on their way but they are he
more fed speak later. fed speak just repeat the same line again and again. you'll hear from bowman, logan, kashkari and master. we are restrictive it might take more time to just bring inflation down, more time seems to be the frame -- the phrase. dani: we are pleased with literally any other fed speaker and that's always gotten. we don't know what they will do anymore because they don't know what they will do anymore so we get the same reframe. >> a lot of people have been talking about...
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May 1, 2024
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and that's something for the fed to consider.nd a lot of the fed watchers and economists today think that the bar for talking about rate hikes is very high right now >> right. >> and most expect that easing bias to be maintained and that's the biggest question going into the fed meeting today, which is how does he walk back cuts in the near term because of the sticky inflation numbers while also maintaining the fact that the next move is going to be a cut. and that's the -- i think that's the kind of mystery we have here >> we'll learn a lot more this afternoon. stocks coming off their worst month since september, investors looking ahead, our next guest thinks there will be two rate cuts this year, joining us is wells fargo cio, target of 5,200 great to have you in d.c. >> thank you >> the regional is up 1.5. and i wonder if you're trying to sniff out powell not going uber hawkish today. >> he can't go uber hawkish. the markets have walked back the six to one rate cut. he's going to say inflation has made progress but it's uneven
and that's something for the fed to consider.nd a lot of the fed watchers and economists today think that the bar for talking about rate hikes is very high right now >> right. >> and most expect that easing bias to be maintained and that's the biggest question going into the fed meeting today, which is how does he walk back cuts in the near term because of the sticky inflation numbers while also maintaining the fact that the next move is going to be a cut. and that's the -- i think...
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May 1, 2024
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set us up for we can expect from the fed. a statement in any potential changes to the language and then what we will hear from jay powell. ven: yes, we're not going to get any summary of economic projections this time around, nor a dot plot. it will all be left to the statement and pilot signaling. he is likely to be hawkish. he has to be hawkish because he has no choice. the fed penciled in inflation rate of 2.6% for the year and that was already upward. now this year corsi -- core pce has averaged 3% which means the inflation script has not gone according to their tastes. which means the fed has no choice but to be hawkish. much of that is already in the treasuries. we have done 14 basis points the past month. that is a humongous surge. there is some upside potential for a yields probably 25 22 but i do not expect that to happen immediately. tom: as you say, a lot priced in already. talk to us about the reaction function within the treasuries. there is a relative ability for the treasury markets to look through the hawkishn
set us up for we can expect from the fed. a statement in any potential changes to the language and then what we will hear from jay powell. ven: yes, we're not going to get any summary of economic projections this time around, nor a dot plot. it will all be left to the statement and pilot signaling. he is likely to be hawkish. he has to be hawkish because he has no choice. the fed penciled in inflation rate of 2.6% for the year and that was already upward. now this year corsi -- core pce has...
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May 28, 2024
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lisa: there is parenti of fed speak. -- there is plenty of fed speak. we will not go into all of it. in the meantime we do get auctions. today we get a two-year, a five year. $69 billion and $70 billion of notes. tomorrow we get seven-year notes auctioned off and the beige book. thursday we will get earnings from dell, dollar general, and cosco. dollar general, how much they are getting pinched. friday is the key data point. pce. the key inflation metric the federal reserve is looking at. jonathan: you know it is a quiet week when the highlight is the beige book. things are pretty quiet. lisa: don't you think the beige book has taken on renewed importance? it is called the beige book for a reason but this point the anecdotes matter and the qualitative data matters that much more. what are companies feeling? jonathan: what are they feeling? last week what we saw is in s&p global pmi mean more to this market them blowout nvidia earnings. why are we putting so much weight on second-tier data? lisa: loretta mester address that ended it overnight when she ta
lisa: there is parenti of fed speak. -- there is plenty of fed speak. we will not go into all of it. in the meantime we do get auctions. today we get a two-year, a five year. $69 billion and $70 billion of notes. tomorrow we get seven-year notes auctioned off and the beige book. thursday we will get earnings from dell, dollar general, and cosco. dollar general, how much they are getting pinched. friday is the key data point. pce. the key inflation metric the federal reserve is looking at....
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the markets made a big move in anticipation of accomodative fed. the fed isn't accomodative.o keep the rally going we need some sort of impetus, don't we? >> yes, it has to be the earnings. it has to be from the ground up. as we've seen the street, many of the economists are looking for a recession that doesn't seem to come. the consumer keeps spending, keep going but how long can that keep moving. the earnings -- charles: these are some of your holdings for april. all quality names. all blue chip names. even a couple caterpillar got hammered pretty good. cvs got hammered pretty good. what do you tell investors? we will stay the course with these particular names even though there might be a smart-term hiccup? >> that is great point, charles portfolio management is all about risk. we like the names for fundamental reasons, for their potential, we are going to have problems. cvs was the recent one. still think the stock is a very well-run company. hopefully we can move forward from here, longer term moves on. some of the other things, you've talked about, jpmorgan, high qualit
the markets made a big move in anticipation of accomodative fed. the fed isn't accomodative.o keep the rally going we need some sort of impetus, don't we? >> yes, it has to be the earnings. it has to be from the ground up. as we've seen the street, many of the economists are looking for a recession that doesn't seem to come. the consumer keeps spending, keep going but how long can that keep moving. the earnings -- charles: these are some of your holdings for april. all quality names. all...
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May 17, 2024
05/24
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francine: you think it is 50-50 whether the fed cuts or hikes?amie: the fed will follow the data i don't know what that will say. they are doing the right thing, being patients. maybe they will not know for a couple of months. >> if you do not pay attention you are not worried. >> stocks are high, rates are higher than people think. my view is whatever the world christ in, the chance of something going wrong is high. in the u.s., but also globally. francine: what does that mean for markets? jamie: credit spreads will cap out. francine: why is the market not pricing that in? jamie: happy talk, low rates, reduced rates. geopolitics disseminate and cause problems so the future is not predictable. i am a student of history, i dad was a stockbroker. i go back to the collapse of 74. the healthy market of 80, collapse of 82. almost all crashes were not predicted so i look at these factors. prepare regardless. francine: geopolitics is not priced in. is it distressed, something going under for multiple factors? jamie: geopolitics could create stress. oil
francine: you think it is 50-50 whether the fed cuts or hikes?amie: the fed will follow the data i don't know what that will say. they are doing the right thing, being patients. maybe they will not know for a couple of months. >> if you do not pay attention you are not worried. >> stocks are high, rates are higher than people think. my view is whatever the world christ in, the chance of something going wrong is high. in the u.s., but also globally. francine: what does that mean for...
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May 2, 2024
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the fed.ook the fed at its word, now, that the next -- now we know the next move is going to be a cut. why trust their judgment on this how do they know the next move is going to be a cut at this point and why should we put faith -- i guess we're counting on a lag the lag will work. >> we are counting on a lag and -- >> they are too, the fed. >> that is absolutely correct. they still believe that their traditional economic models will work over time but i think we all have to be humble about the fact that there are a multitude of scenarios that could occur but from my perspective, as a bond investor, i want to know are the yields that i'm currently -- that i can currently get in that portfolio -- >> the next move -- >> are they compensating me for the risk both the risk in terms of treasury yields, and also the risk in terms of the credit. and everything we hear from companies on the balance sheet side is that they have been preparing for a recession for a year that didn't come, and now their
the fed.ook the fed at its word, now, that the next -- now we know the next move is going to be a cut. why trust their judgment on this how do they know the next move is going to be a cut at this point and why should we put faith -- i guess we're counting on a lag the lag will work. >> we are counting on a lag and -- >> they are too, the fed. >> that is absolutely correct. they still believe that their traditional economic models will work over time but i think we all have to...
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May 15, 2024
05/24
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he said unlikely the fed will hike rates.t is being restrictive and we believe over time it will be sufficiently restrictive. give it time. it will eventually wray inflation down. open sesame. nasdaq closed at all time yesterday. s&p joining today. investors are not surprised jay powell remained steadfast not hiking rates. an interesting thing happened. this is the fund managers survey about bullishness. notice in it spiked big time? april the market was down. a lot of folks saying you know what? powell will stay the course, and so far they have been 100% right. it is not just your professional fund managers. also just not long ago we got very bearish at least individual investors did there was more bearishness weeks ago, versus bullishness. that is a fleeting moment. it has changed big time. bearishness is now down to 23%. everyone is sort of on the bandwagon that it is going to be great, professional fund managers, everyone, that powell will pull off this sort of magic so the treat right now ironically desperately earning f
he said unlikely the fed will hike rates.t is being restrictive and we believe over time it will be sufficiently restrictive. give it time. it will eventually wray inflation down. open sesame. nasdaq closed at all time yesterday. s&p joining today. investors are not surprised jay powell remained steadfast not hiking rates. an interesting thing happened. this is the fund managers survey about bullishness. notice in it spiked big time? april the market was down. a lot of folks saying you know...
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May 6, 2024
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is it all about the fed? >> it was a period of time where it was all about the fed. i think markets have moved away from that because to your point, earnings have been really strong. let's zoom out a couple of months ago where the markets were expecting four or five rate cuts. now the expectation is about one. that's a massive change in expectations. markets are around all-time highs. we need to zoom out and be grateful for the fact that markets are behaving better and more fundamentally. it is part of being in a dynamic stock market. >> barbara, coming back to you. you said berkshire hathaway and warren buffett, of course, oracle of oomaha, growing the cash pile. i want to bounce another investment idea off you. your investors talked about it. elon musk, the ceo of tesla, inviting warren buffett to invest. what do you think of that idea? tesla shares have been under pressure in the last couple months. >> obviously, elon is brilliant for getting the most famous investor behind him. now it is a bigger team than just warren. the take away is all about succ succession.
is it all about the fed? >> it was a period of time where it was all about the fed. i think markets have moved away from that because to your point, earnings have been really strong. let's zoom out a couple of months ago where the markets were expecting four or five rate cuts. now the expectation is about one. that's a massive change in expectations. markets are around all-time highs. we need to zoom out and be grateful for the fact that markets are behaving better and more fundamentally....
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May 20, 2024
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more fed speakers on the take.e're going to hear from the atlanta fed presidents in a few moments from now. that has been driving the market narrative of late. but that shift again as you say, haidi, it does come back attorneyings over the course of this week. one stock in particular is that nvidea is the last of the big tech names to report. investors are looking for any sort of evidence and the guidance that we can see that optimism around a.i. and whether that continued ample i. chips. chai son wong spoke us to exclusively. and we hear from the c.e.o. out to being this partnership. >> it's about delivering an entire infrastructure. that entire infrastructure is insanely complex. the last 30 years both of our companies have changed a lot >> al of our p.c.'s will be a.i.p.c.'s. the reason is that anything that you're doing that has an edit property is going to be sped up because every software developer in the world is figure out how to use all this new power in the g.p.u.'s and the n.p.u.'s. annabelle: that was m
more fed speakers on the take.e're going to hear from the atlanta fed presidents in a few moments from now. that has been driving the market narrative of late. but that shift again as you say, haidi, it does come back attorneyings over the course of this week. one stock in particular is that nvidea is the last of the big tech names to report. investors are looking for any sort of evidence and the guidance that we can see that optimism around a.i. and whether that continued ample i. chips. chai...
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May 10, 2024
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logan asking the question maybe the fed is not tight enough. that's from dallas, and then we had kashkari on who says, you know what? well, you know what, let's listen to what he had to say the good news here is he's not talking rate hikes, so let's hear what he is talking about. >> if we get concerning inflation data continued, we're going to sit where we are for an extended period of time. i think that's the default if the labor market stays strong, we don't have to do anything we can stay here as long as needed >> now, i don't think austan goolsbee's viewpoint is any different from that given the scenario, where austan may be a little different, is he seems to have more optimism that inflation is going to work itself out he will keep reminding you that we had an historic decline in the inflation rate last year obviously not the price level, but the rate of inflation came down very precipitously. he's a little more optimistic. he does not accept the idea that we're in this last tougher mile of inflation he seems to have expect that the inflat
logan asking the question maybe the fed is not tight enough. that's from dallas, and then we had kashkari on who says, you know what? well, you know what, let's listen to what he had to say the good news here is he's not talking rate hikes, so let's hear what he is talking about. >> if we get concerning inflation data continued, we're going to sit where we are for an extended period of time. i think that's the default if the labor market stays strong, we don't have to do anything we can...
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May 13, 2024
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the question shouldn't be whether the fed is restrictive i think most people would agree the fed is restrictivehe question is whether they're restrictive enough and this is a separate conversation for a separate panel i don't think they're restrictive enough and i think that's plain as day, but that's another story. what i did want to -- >> why, because the stock market's near a high >> sure, where's the evidence -- with all due with respect, where's the evidence they're restrictive? >> where's the evidence that -- what needs to happen to move to you that they are? >> the original -- listen, they told me -- >> you want to -- credit spreads to blow out? >> how about go up instead of being the tightest ever? how about stocks not trading at 20-plus times forward earnings sitting at record highs, how about the economy doing, relatively speaking, just fine the whole point of raising rates to choke inflation out of the system is to slow things down. where are things slowing down? i know people wanted to point to starbucks, people don't want to spend $9 for an iced tea matcha anymore, but i listen to
the question shouldn't be whether the fed is restrictive i think most people would agree the fed is restrictivehe question is whether they're restrictive enough and this is a separate conversation for a separate panel i don't think they're restrictive enough and i think that's plain as day, but that's another story. what i did want to -- >> why, because the stock market's near a high >> sure, where's the evidence -- with all due with respect, where's the evidence they're...
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larry: fed will stay put.y one fed person, neel kashkari, the next move could be a higher rate but there is no question, there is not going to be rate cuts. now the only guy that may not know that, john, this is my last point, is joe biden. because joe biden has been hitting the fed to lower their target rate. people say trump interferes with the fed. joe biden is interfering with the fed but he will not get his wish, is he? >> i think joe biden actually needs to call janet yellen on the phone. she is meeting regularly with the fed chairman. larry: breakfast every friday. >> hey, what is he telling you? because he has got to be saying hey look, you got to get the president to stop saying we're going to cut interest rates. we're not going to cut interest rates. it is making him look foolish and out of touch with what is happening with the economy. every time he says it i think the american people say, that guy don't know what's happening in the economy. so therefore he doesn't know what is happening with me. la
larry: fed will stay put.y one fed person, neel kashkari, the next move could be a higher rate but there is no question, there is not going to be rate cuts. now the only guy that may not know that, john, this is my last point, is joe biden. because joe biden has been hitting the fed to lower their target rate. people say trump interferes with the fed. joe biden is interfering with the fed but he will not get his wish, is he? >> i think joe biden actually needs to call janet yellen on the...
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May 21, 2024
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definitely, the fed could help. haslinda: does it also necessarily mean the dollar will weaken from september? >> yes and no. if the tone of the fed is extremely accommodative, it will weaken. however, we are not seeing anything amid the collapse of the u.s. economy, seeing the massive change in the monetary policy journey. this is why we do believe that the u.s. dollar will stay strong against all the currencies, against the euro, but also against the emerging currencies as well. haslinda: let's talk about how challenging it has been for investors in 2024, it has been tough to navigate. how do you craft a portfolio that is resilient and can withstand all the ascendancy's we are talking about? >> we had a conviction at the beginning of the year that it was not the moment to leave in the equity market. we have the conviction as well that the growth has not disappeared from the landscape. if we look at the european numbers, for example, it illustrates the situation quite well. we have -- we could be in positive suppli
definitely, the fed could help. haslinda: does it also necessarily mean the dollar will weaken from september? >> yes and no. if the tone of the fed is extremely accommodative, it will weaken. however, we are not seeing anything amid the collapse of the u.s. economy, seeing the massive change in the monetary policy journey. this is why we do believe that the u.s. dollar will stay strong against all the currencies, against the euro, but also against the emerging currencies as well....
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May 28, 2024
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the fed should say as long as the fed is coming down, we are happy.should say we are happy and we need to start unwinding some of the interest rate increases we know are not going to be sustained. wherever the fed funds rate stabilizes, it is going to be at a level lower than where we are right now. annabelle: that was paul romer, professor at boston college. we will have more on mberg daybreak australia. ♪ annabelle: time is running out on bhp's ambitious $49 billion takeover plan. the two sides remain at odds over the aussie giants come look at a transaction structure ahead of wednesday deadlines. we will get more with our commodity editor. this has been a structure of the deal and the two sides are still yet to come to terms on it. >> the main problem is over bhp's requirement anglo spinoff majority stakes in south african minors. anglo argues that is going to create too much risk for its own shareholders which are going to end up owning the shares in those miners according to bloomberg's reporting on both sides of the deal. they are struggling to
the fed should say as long as the fed is coming down, we are happy.should say we are happy and we need to start unwinding some of the interest rate increases we know are not going to be sustained. wherever the fed funds rate stabilizes, it is going to be at a level lower than where we are right now. annabelle: that was paul romer, professor at boston college. we will have more on mberg daybreak australia. ♪ annabelle: time is running out on bhp's ambitious $49 billion takeover plan. the two...
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May 14, 2024
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cpi print for fresh clues on fed policy. hong kong stocks are giving up earlier gains ahead of earnings from tech giants alibaba and tencent. japanese bond yields and surging to decade plus highs on bets the boj will further reduce debt buying to ease pressure on the ailing yen. plus, janet yellen admitting china may retaliate against terrifying from the biden administration, we hear exclusively from the u.s. treasury secretary. let's get straight to markets and look at how they are faring. avril hong is in singapore keeping an eye on things. >> we're seeing asia stocks moving sideways. you get the feeling this is the way it's going to be until we get the u.s. cpi print. that is projected to show moderation but not enough to prompt fed rate cuts. we did see chinese equities starting the day on the front foot, but they have pulled off session highs, even ahead of those big tech earnings out of china. keeping an eye on what we're seeing on asia fx, the threat of tariffs on china, along with potentially higher inflation. not a
cpi print for fresh clues on fed policy. hong kong stocks are giving up earlier gains ahead of earnings from tech giants alibaba and tencent. japanese bond yields and surging to decade plus highs on bets the boj will further reduce debt buying to ease pressure on the ailing yen. plus, janet yellen admitting china may retaliate against terrifying from the biden administration, we hear exclusively from the u.s. treasury secretary. let's get straight to markets and look at how they are faring....
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May 5, 2024
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brian: it has been a challenge for the fed, the fact that the fed has been trying to tighten economic policy as well as the federal government has been practicing expansionary economic policy so when you put the two of them together, it does create a lot of this sort of friction as far as you have one that's kind of pumping the brakes and the other that is pushing on the accelerator. and that actually has contributed to some of the distortions in the economic members so when you look at where have the job gains mainly been? it's been health care, government, and areas like transportation and adjust six, things that may be do have some sort of relationship at least on the margin towards where the government spending has been said that has really complicated things for the fed which is one of the reasons why they really, i believe, at this point, want to just hold rates high for longer as opposed to really putting rate hikes on the table anytime soon. annabelle: how does that thinking around the fed policy also play into your views or your approach to bond investing then? brian: i saw a
brian: it has been a challenge for the fed, the fact that the fed has been trying to tighten economic policy as well as the federal government has been practicing expansionary economic policy so when you put the two of them together, it does create a lot of this sort of friction as far as you have one that's kind of pumping the brakes and the other that is pushing on the accelerator. and that actually has contributed to some of the distortions in the economic members so when you look at where...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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yes, rate hikes not on — enough for the fed to cut. not on the _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for now, - enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for now, but| hikes not on the cards for now, but jamie dimon has said he could see a time when interest rates hit 8% and that further uncertainty is really damaging right now to the us economy. could we be in that position where rates start rising, not only a bit, but to 8%? the comment _ not only a bit, but to 8%? the comment you _ not only a bit, but to 8%? the comment you are _ not only a bit, but to 8%? tue: comment you are referring not only a bit, but to 8%? tte: comment you are referring to not only a bit, but to 8%? t"t2 comment you are referring to him not only a bit, but to 8%? tt2 comment you are referring to him at the jamie dimon letter to investors and underneath that, you referenced, he was also saying
yes, rate hikes not on — enough for the fed to cut. not on the _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for now, - enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for now, but| hikes not on the cards for now, but jamie dimon has said he could see a time when interest rates hit 8% and that further uncertainty is really damaging right...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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i investors taking guidance from the fed and acting on it now?- fed and acting on it now?acting on it now? i think the market is _ fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still— fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still looking - fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still looking for i the market is still looking for cuts. at least with a nominal curve, which at the short end actually curtails lending growth, because thatis curtails lending growth, because that is what inverted curves do. for the equity market, it is still about pricing cache and discounting it. if rates are going to be lower, they need to boost stock prices higher. i don't think markets are quite ready to be on their own, without getting this from a lower industry.- this from a lower industry. thank ou so this from a lower industry. thank you so much _ this from a lower industry. thank you so much for— this from a lower industry. thank you so much for taking _ this from a lower industry. thank you so much for taking the i this from a lower industry. thank you so much for tak
i investors taking guidance from the fed and acting on it now?- fed and acting on it now?acting on it now? i think the market is _ fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still— fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still looking - fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still looking for i the market is still looking for cuts. at least with a nominal curve, which at the short end actually curtails lending growth, because thatis curtails lending growth, because that...
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May 24, 2024
05/24
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and it's not making the fed's job any easier.r point, these auctions are just enormous. now, i know they've kind of gotten away from fewer 10-year auctions, bond auctions and more notes, but doesn't that give it more egregious with respect to the american taxpayer? we're paying out even more money with these shorter term durations. >> correct. and given expected trajectory from the cb if o running these deficits throughout the 101-year time horizon -- 10-year, the fed if should surely be -- or the treasury, excuse me, should be terming out the debt. this morning governor waller released a speech, sort of an esoteric speech on the theoretical neutral rate. get to the end of that speech, and he starts talking about the supply of treasuries. the demand for safe assets went up a lot after the global financial crisis, and the fed if increased their balance sheet. but he's talking about that supply getting bigger and bigger and bigger. that, to me, was one of the first fed officials to hint at what the real issue is. and while they'll
and it's not making the fed's job any easier.r point, these auctions are just enormous. now, i know they've kind of gotten away from fewer 10-year auctions, bond auctions and more notes, but doesn't that give it more egregious with respect to the american taxpayer? we're paying out even more money with these shorter term durations. >> correct. and given expected trajectory from the cb if o running these deficits throughout the 101-year time horizon -- 10-year, the fed if should surely be...
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May 2, 2024
05/24
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CNBC
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some of it's going to follow the fed. in a misguided bid for transparency they've created a monster. jay powell doesn't need to hold i aq&a session after every meeting. he's chosen to do a highwire act without a net. that's an extremely risky maneuver that he has chosen. jay didn't need to say they're perhaps done raising interest rates last year. employment's incredibly strong as long as employment's strong the fed had no business taking hikes off the table. powell's fix yaitded on all sorts of data points but all he was thinking about was employment because the incredibly robust job market is the whole reason we have inflation in the first place people without jobs are less likely to spend or buy cars or homes. less spending is what allows prices to come down. i wish there with a better way to do p but the only way the fed beats inflation bicausing unemployment o'the big providers of goods, walmart, costco, amazon, with the latter being shunned by federal regulators because the biden administration is re reflexively ske
some of it's going to follow the fed. in a misguided bid for transparency they've created a monster. jay powell doesn't need to hold i aq&a session after every meeting. he's chosen to do a highwire act without a net. that's an extremely risky maneuver that he has chosen. jay didn't need to say they're perhaps done raising interest rates last year. employment's incredibly strong as long as employment's strong the fed had no business taking hikes off the table. powell's fix yaitded on all...
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May 26, 2024
05/24
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really comes down to the fed moves as well. haidi: which seems to be in terms of expectations, move on any given day. that is the volatility we are expecting as data comes through. taking a look at what we are expecting, eco-data out of the u.s. of course top of the agenda for that very reason. bloomberg economics expecting the preferred gauge to moderate. also revised reading on first-quarter gdp and growth cooling from the governor. the fed also issuing its beige book report out on wednesday. in asia china's monthly business surveys are expected to indicate the factory sector is holding up. we get a separate gauge of industrial earnings that could show profit growth returning in april as well. for japan we are walking tokyo's may inflation rate. that seemed to be climbing on higher utility rates. also looking at natural factory production and labor market data for april as well. and that is your week ahead. annabelle: let's get more on that and bring in senior economist or apac thematic research. we can look a little bigger p
really comes down to the fed moves as well. haidi: which seems to be in terms of expectations, move on any given day. that is the volatility we are expecting as data comes through. taking a look at what we are expecting, eco-data out of the u.s. of course top of the agenda for that very reason. bloomberg economics expecting the preferred gauge to moderate. also revised reading on first-quarter gdp and growth cooling from the governor. the fed also issuing its beige book report out on wednesday....
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May 28, 2024
05/24
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the fed's response to that will be important. comes to that fed response, it is the yield differential that continues to put pressure on the japanese yen, even as japan talks about having the space, and we heard this from the boj over the weekend, to gradually increase interest rates currently at 0% in japan. the boj has that space to gradually increase interest rates, but you can see that differential, the widening differential is now the yellow line in terms of the rate differential between japan and the u.s., and until the u.s. was significantly lower on rates, this is the argument from many, you would inspect the pressure on the yen will continue. we will get tokyo cpi later this week. inflation out of the japanese catalyst that could be important in terms of forming a view on the boj. the governor and other officials suggested they have made significant progress on that 2% target around japan. that did print worth -- did print worth scrutinizing. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak eur
the fed's response to that will be important. comes to that fed response, it is the yield differential that continues to put pressure on the japanese yen, even as japan talks about having the space, and we heard this from the boj over the weekend, to gradually increase interest rates currently at 0% in japan. the boj has that space to gradually increase interest rates, but you can see that differential, the widening differential is now the yellow line in terms of the rate differential between...
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May 20, 2024
05/24
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so look at what has happened to the fed. the fed pivoted on the basis of data.was the opposite of the pivot they did in december when they pivoted. now they have to do a u-turn. as they are doing the u-turn and say higher for longer, the market is going to get away. he saw it happen to the two-year ended 10 year. then there are two really problematic issues we are not talking about enough. how sensitive are the stubborn components of inflation to interest rates? they are not very sensitive. that is problem number one. problem number two, when indications are be getting of the economy? it is slower and weaker. it raises the issue that once again the fed is going to have to pivot, this time not on the basis of inflation numbers, but on the basis of the real economy numbers it will pivot yet again. the big issue i know no one wants to discuss but i insist, i understand that fully, is the inflation target the right target? we all talk about wanting to go back to 2% every single quarter. everyone assumes 2% is the right inflation target. 2% is totally arbitrary. i un
so look at what has happened to the fed. the fed pivoted on the basis of data.was the opposite of the pivot they did in december when they pivoted. now they have to do a u-turn. as they are doing the u-turn and say higher for longer, the market is going to get away. he saw it happen to the two-year ended 10 year. then there are two really problematic issues we are not talking about enough. how sensitive are the stubborn components of inflation to interest rates? they are not very sensitive....
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May 30, 2024
05/24
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you in the book about the dirty little secret of monetary policy that is the fed's that the fed's forting inflation is causing recession and. you know if you if you paid attention the inflation debate over the last couple of years you know there's been a lot of talk about this. can we have a soft landing? can you bring inflation down without having a recession and so forth? but so i'm curious about whether you think things have changed from when we wrote those papers back in the 1980s because it to me that neither the democrat cuts nor the republicans nor the fed at moment has much stomach for its dirty little secret and this may be a sign that the fed is sort of lesson dependent than it used to be. neither of the really were prepared for the pain of a recession. and so the fed i think the fed didn't do what it what it might have done back in the time we were writing. and certainly what it did in 1979, which(ó0&interest rates u, 19 or something. maybe i'm wrong on the how high, but in the book you argue that the fed sort of brief leaned in the direction of about jobs, but that pretty
you in the book about the dirty little secret of monetary policy that is the fed's that the fed's forting inflation is causing recession and. you know if you if you paid attention the inflation debate over the last couple of years you know there's been a lot of talk about this. can we have a soft landing? can you bring inflation down without having a recession and so forth? but so i'm curious about whether you think things have changed from when we wrote those papers back in the 1980s because...