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Feb 29, 2024
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it is stuck in the alan greenspan era.l: the core of each of that when you take out things like food and energy, the favorite of our favorite of these various numbers and that is the latest period, 4% for for the month of 2.8% from a year. what i am trying to get at here is both would have to be, the core and the general number, at least that is the thing. is it? >> i don't think so. the chair, jay powell, said we could lower the policy rates before we get to 2%. interest rate would be too high for that moment. the idea to move ahead of this, the worry has been it is hanging up the inflation rate close to 3% and a little more certainty that inflation is coming down so you have the year over year number from 2.922.8, sounds like hairsplitting and it is. they were motivated to start moving and inflation is going back. the monthly number is hot, 0.4. that is what is making people nervous. neil: do you think we will see rate cuts of this year? might be june. the economy strong enough, inflationary issue is firm enough to hold
it is stuck in the alan greenspan era.l: the core of each of that when you take out things like food and energy, the favorite of our favorite of these various numbers and that is the latest period, 4% for for the month of 2.8% from a year. what i am trying to get at here is both would have to be, the core and the general number, at least that is the thing. is it? >> i don't think so. the chair, jay powell, said we could lower the policy rates before we get to 2%. interest rate would be...
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Feb 26, 2024
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honestly, alan greenspan turned the whole thing around but each successive fed chairperson has addedo this. the question do we want stronger economy to empower stocks with no fed a accommodation or do we want the weaker stocks with the fed pumping money into the system? >> charles, you know the my answer will be before you even ask that questions because we always focus on fundamentals for the stocks we put in our portfolios, even our fixed income securities. we want to see economy with strength to it. we want to see stocks with strong fundamentals, that are trending higher. this is what feeds into the model that we use to actually pick stocks for our strategies. obviously you can always say the fed put us there. good news is bad news, vice versa. we go through all those narratives, but in the end what will give you a long-term trend is a strong economy with strong fundamentals. you're going to have consumers that have the ability to spend and you're going to have companies that can keep up with the supply demand. that's what we need for the economy to continue. charles: so what are
honestly, alan greenspan turned the whole thing around but each successive fed chairperson has addedo this. the question do we want stronger economy to empower stocks with no fed a accommodation or do we want the weaker stocks with the fed pumping money into the system? >> charles, you know the my answer will be before you even ask that questions because we always focus on fundamentals for the stocks we put in our portfolios, even our fixed income securities. we want to see economy with...
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Feb 22, 2024
02/24
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i think back to 1996, and alan greenspan if gave that irrational exuberance speech. but the market went on for another three and a half years. and i think investors are make a mistake here by looking at a price move in a stock and making a judgment based solely on that price move. because what we've seen with nvidia and several of these other magnificent seven type stocks which is really now of the fab four than magnificent seven, but what they're seeing with these companies is that the cash flow has risen just as a fast as the stock price. so this is very much fundamentally driven as well as momentum driven, and the fundamentals haven't changed. when we look at nvidia, they were on the forefront of video games, cryptocurrency, car sensors, artificial intelligence, so they're in a lot of the hot growth areas of the market, and their revenues have really ramped. so, yeah, do i have a problem buying a stock that's a made this big of a move today? probably. but is in any if sort of a sell signal or any sort of a reason to call this overvalued? i really don't think so. a
i think back to 1996, and alan greenspan if gave that irrational exuberance speech. but the market went on for another three and a half years. and i think investors are make a mistake here by looking at a price move in a stock and making a judgment based solely on that price move. because what we've seen with nvidia and several of these other magnificent seven type stocks which is really now of the fab four than magnificent seven, but what they're seeing with these companies is that the cash...
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Feb 13, 2024
02/24
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i think it happened under alan greenspan. is concerned it is predicated more on bad news, than the fed being accommodative than ordinary american growth? >> i think if you rely simply on lower interest rates in order to see corporate profits expand, to see your portfolio do much better, than, yeah, you are definitely focusing on the wrong thing. you're really should be focusing more on gdp growth, growth of the economy, increase for wages of those that are working so they can go out and spend and have organic growth, not in a sense artificial growth. if things go poorly, yeah the fed needs to open the spigots, flood the market with currency. charles: right. >> we end up with problems. charles: yeah. i mean it's, at one point it was a backstop. i think when greenspan became the maestro every chairperson after that wants to be a maestro too, except maybe not jay powell. we'll see. let's talk about these picks. start with danaher. >> danaher in the health care category, we raised our recommendation on the shares from hold to buy
i think it happened under alan greenspan. is concerned it is predicated more on bad news, than the fed being accommodative than ordinary american growth? >> i think if you rely simply on lower interest rates in order to see corporate profits expand, to see your portfolio do much better, than, yeah, you are definitely focusing on the wrong thing. you're really should be focusing more on gdp growth, growth of the economy, increase for wages of those that are working so they can go out and...
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you know, what happens, do we get back to that 1945 to the '70s or the one that alan greenspan used to5 to 2004? what do we need to get to that next level? right now it feels like a euphemism for laying people off? >> not really. when you look at it broadly on the economy. there are people losing their jobs by some companies that are trying to increase their productivity but there is still a lot more job openings than people to employ. so the labor market remains very tight. the labor market has always been full of churn and there is nothing wrong if it is churning with the unemployment rate below 4%. some people lose their jobs. then they find jobs. i don't really have a problem with that but the productivity numbers last year were fantastic, year-over-year basis we were up 2.7%. the average productivity gains since the '40s has been 2%. we're above that i think we're going to three to 4%. charles: exactly, what we have on this chart here. that would be absolutely wonderful. congratulations ed, you've been spot on for a long time. i lost track but keep it going. >> i appreciate it. i
you know, what happens, do we get back to that 1945 to the '70s or the one that alan greenspan used to5 to 2004? what do we need to get to that next level? right now it feels like a euphemism for laying people off? >> not really. when you look at it broadly on the economy. there are people losing their jobs by some companies that are trying to increase their productivity but there is still a lot more job openings than people to employ. so the labor market remains very tight. the labor...
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Feb 16, 2024
02/24
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you buy the dip works, even when you think about alan greenspan, irrational cube rants --?for another a four years. we now something's not right, but you're trying to make money -- >> yeah. charles: you help a lot of people. they've got to come to you and say, rebecca, we're with you on this but, golly -- [laughter] >> all of this fear of missing out is the bane of my existence because people wan protection and safety which i believe, charles, we are in thest global economic transition in the history of time ever, and that's not being hyperbolic, that is the truth. we are going through a transition from unipolarity to multipolarity and de-dollarization. it is happening. watch putin's interview with tucker carlson, it's not that you agree with putin, it's just showing you what a country that used to really leverage international trade in dollars no longer doing that. charles: right. >> and you've got metro collars -- metro dollar threats, but i would point to different from you don't know when the bottom's going to come, we have not had an inverted yield curve for this long,
you buy the dip works, even when you think about alan greenspan, irrational cube rants --?for another a four years. we now something's not right, but you're trying to make money -- >> yeah. charles: you help a lot of people. they've got to come to you and say, rebecca, we're with you on this but, golly -- [laughter] >> all of this fear of missing out is the bane of my existence because people wan protection and safety which i believe, charles, we are in thest global economic...
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i got to think it goes pack to alan greenspan and how he got the title of the mace slow. don't know. i would rather see the stock market up because the economy is great. i think that connection has been severed for a long time. i want to ask you something about inflation. it is political. president biden has now declared war on supermarkets. that is how you bring down the price of foods. i know he is deflecting from his own role in spiking inflation. right here, folks this is kroger, the largest pure supermarket out there, their net margins peaked in 2018. they have been essentially coming down. they are 1.26% down, 11% from the three-year average. this is nonsense but is there anything the white house could do to slow the rise and pace of inflation and even bring down some prices? >> as far as declaring war on supermarkets the one place we have no inflation, zero inflation is food. supermarkets have some of the tighter margins and brutally competitive businesses we have and to think or suggest there is price gouging going on at the supermarket level, there are a million
i got to think it goes pack to alan greenspan and how he got the title of the mace slow. don't know. i would rather see the stock market up because the economy is great. i think that connection has been severed for a long time. i want to ask you something about inflation. it is political. president biden has now declared war on supermarkets. that is how you bring down the price of foods. i know he is deflecting from his own role in spiking inflation. right here, folks this is kroger, the...
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Feb 12, 2024
02/24
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. >> for god as sake, the old alan greenspan briefcase indicator.red as hell but this is ridiculous. charles: [laughter]. are you bullish? >> look what we've got here, we have a fed that got extremely restrictive interest rates. at the same time we have an absolutely booming economy. obviously we don't have restrictive interest rates. if the fed starts cutting we're have restrictive interest rates. we're at the up 25% from the bear market that ended in october. stocks are cheap. you know months after wonderful conversations which i thank you, i think monetary deflation is coming is coming up, deflation numbers come up with minus signs in front of them that will be a good thing and people will panic. i wilt ever, ever so grad wally letting out a couple of shares of stocks every day while there's so nicely overvalued anticipating a little scare when everybody hears about deflation. then i buy them back. charles: that is when you come on the show with a shirt and tie. >> i might come on the show with no shirt at all. charles: you will set off all the c
. >> for god as sake, the old alan greenspan briefcase indicator.red as hell but this is ridiculous. charles: [laughter]. are you bullish? >> look what we've got here, we have a fed that got extremely restrictive interest rates. at the same time we have an absolutely booming economy. obviously we don't have restrictive interest rates. if the fed starts cutting we're have restrictive interest rates. we're at the up 25% from the bear market that ended in october. stocks are cheap. you...
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Feb 22, 2024
02/24
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>> we were reminiscing about alan greenspan and his irrational exuberance comments and the fact thatew up. does that happen again? we don't know. it's basically invested in seven things. so the fed looks at that and says what about the rest of the market? is the rest of the market being overpriced, which we saw in the 1990's? the officials i have talked to have said we don't think so. they are keeping an eye on nvidia and others because bubbles can pop, but it isn't broad. >> thank you. equities at session highs. let's run through it. bond yields are higher off the back of hotter than expected jobless claims. the right kind of downside surprise. yields are up. looking out further along the curve, up two or three basis points. the dollar stronger. you can see this on the chart. jobless claims chart. the euro against the dollar is positive by 0.1 percent. mike joins us to get into these numbers. let's talk about them. jobless claims coming in at 201,000. previous week, 213,000.how much weight are you putting on this data? how much weight are you putting on that? >> thank you for having
>> we were reminiscing about alan greenspan and his irrational exuberance comments and the fact thatew up. does that happen again? we don't know. it's basically invested in seven things. so the fed looks at that and says what about the rest of the market? is the rest of the market being overpriced, which we saw in the 1990's? the officials i have talked to have said we don't think so. they are keeping an eye on nvidia and others because bubbles can pop, but it isn't broad. >> thank...