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Aug 5, 2024
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joining us is andrew hollenhorst and stephen stanley.. goldman sticking with 25. why are they wrong? why is now the right time to make the call? why are you convinced with fridays data? andrew: we came out with a call in september -- that was just after the jobs report. the p think is not that the employment rate rose to 4.3%, it is we now have four consecutive months were the unemployment rate rises and accelerates. if the fed is trying to get a soft landing you have a lot of momentum upwards and the unemployment rate you need to stop. if you're trying to stop that slowing momentum that means raids should be down neutral, below neutral. where is neutral? 50 basis points in september is just getting started. basecase they do not to the emergency cut but it is possible. jonathan: what would make it happen? andrew: are further selloff in risk assets. they cannot be just about the tech sector. it has to be credit spreads widening. those are the things that can get the fed to move early. dani: stephen, you are skeptical they could go 50. why
joining us is andrew hollenhorst and stephen stanley.. goldman sticking with 25. why are they wrong? why is now the right time to make the call? why are you convinced with fridays data? andrew: we came out with a call in september -- that was just after the jobs report. the p think is not that the employment rate rose to 4.3%, it is we now have four consecutive months were the unemployment rate rises and accelerates. if the fed is trying to get a soft landing you have a lot of momentum upwards...
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Aug 19, 2024
08/24
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one of those is andrew hollenhorst at citigroup.said "the continued contraction of manufacturing, falling housing starts, the rise in unemployment rates are telltale signs the economy is poised to tip into recession." that is the latest from citi, still looking for 50. lisa: this goes back to the theme of jackson hole. how much can a 50 basis point cut ameliorate the situation in housing and how much is housing divorced from the other fundamentals of the u.s. economy? deep questions and i'm excited for the philosophical debates on friday. jonathan: i'm keenan lisa abramowicz talking housing on friday -- tom keene and lisa abramowicz talking housing on friday. here is dani burger. dani: hurricane ernesto has strengthened into a category one impacting the u.s. east coast in the canadian atlantic coast. life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely. it is expected to weaken tomorrow. mary daly told ft she has more confidence inflation is under control. even so she our greed for a patient approach to policy saying graduali
one of those is andrew hollenhorst at citigroup.said "the continued contraction of manufacturing, falling housing starts, the rise in unemployment rates are telltale signs the economy is poised to tip into recession." that is the latest from citi, still looking for 50. lisa: this goes back to the theme of jackson hole. how much can a 50 basis point cut ameliorate the situation in housing and how much is housing divorced from the other fundamentals of the u.s. economy? deep questions...
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Aug 8, 2024
08/24
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andrew hollenhorst talking about the danger zone at citigroup. changes would confirm the slow down.to jackson hole, wyoming. that it is on payrolls report. let's see if that confirms or denies the weakness we saw just last friday. september 11, another cpi report. that is the month or so ahead of us in this market. everybody starts again with jobless claims. let's look at futures at the moment. futures on the s&p positive .1%. yields are a little bit lower this morning. i can tell you later this afternoon at 1:00 eastern time we get $25 billion of 30 year bonds. dani: is this why lisa is off because she knew if she was on this is all we would be talking about? jonathan: she chose -- dani: she chose her timing well. it is putting a contrast that with the corporate bond market. people just absorb that thing and that we contrast that with the bond market come as soon as yields go over 4% we decided we do not want to buy duration. jonathan: she texted me, she is having a wonderful time. i will not tell you where she is. she will be back on monday. bank of america lowering its price targ
andrew hollenhorst talking about the danger zone at citigroup. changes would confirm the slow down.to jackson hole, wyoming. that it is on payrolls report. let's see if that confirms or denies the weakness we saw just last friday. september 11, another cpi report. that is the month or so ahead of us in this market. everybody starts again with jobless claims. let's look at futures at the moment. futures on the s&p positive .1%. yields are a little bit lower this morning. i can tell you later...
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Aug 22, 2024
08/24
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andrew hollenhorst publishing, saying downward job revisions lower the bar for a 50 basis point cut.yesterday and say "less important of the backward revision is the current establishment payrolls data is upwardly biased. we will expect the fed to put emphasis on the unemployment rate, making a 50 basis point cut more likely. downward revisions lower the bar for a 50 basis point cut." how important do you think those downward revisions were yesterday? mohamed: not as important as they were suggesting. you can argue either side. you can argue it is a demand-side issue. you can argue it is the supply-side issue in the fed has to be more cautious. economists do not agree as to what this means. i think the market did the right thing when it basically ignored it. jonathan: basically was 170 versus 240 for the 12 months through march 2024. when we hear people say if you get a bad chops number on september 6 this fed will go 50, do we know what a bad number is? mohamed: i think about number has become lower than the consensus forecast. jonathan: anything below the consensus forecast? if we
andrew hollenhorst publishing, saying downward job revisions lower the bar for a 50 basis point cut.yesterday and say "less important of the backward revision is the current establishment payrolls data is upwardly biased. we will expect the fed to put emphasis on the unemployment rate, making a 50 basis point cut more likely. downward revisions lower the bar for a 50 basis point cut." how important do you think those downward revisions were yesterday? mohamed: not as important as they...
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Aug 6, 2024
08/24
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jonathan: andrew hollenhorst looking for a 50 basis point cut in september.ne data point." "a range of data confirm what the rise in unemployment rate is signaling. the u.s. economy is at best at risk of falling into a recession and at worst already has." he goes on to say data is likely to confirm the continued slow down and that is why things are 50 basis points in september. up next, rbc's gerard cassidy on his outlook for banks. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. the all new godaddy airo. put your business online in minutes with the power of ai. we're with bridget, whose husband won't be home for months put your business online in minutes and whose daughter is due any day. we're with mike, who's leaving home to protect his family, and yours. we're with all service-members and their families who need community, connection, and maybe a bit of magic. are you with them?
jonathan: andrew hollenhorst looking for a 50 basis point cut in september.ne data point." "a range of data confirm what the rise in unemployment rate is signaling. the u.s. economy is at best at risk of falling into a recession and at worst already has." he goes on to say data is likely to confirm the continued slow down and that is why things are 50 basis points in september. up next, rbc's gerard cassidy on his outlook for banks. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ the...