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Apr 10, 2024
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knapp former ceo heretage fellow andy pozner, barry knapp reaction to the cpi. >> well take june, juneble, and i have been arguing that 10-year note treasury market in general was not in the right place we are likely to get another round of you curve bear steepening like from august through october, going to be exceedingly did i for the treasury to place 519 billion coupon securities for sale next two quarters. in order to clear the market, likely to have to see rates, 10-year rates at least 4 3/4 maybe back to 5, hard to imagine how equity market just shrugs that off, the initial reaction in august was, well, driven by stronger growth and that is playing something avenue roll here but in reality i think we will probably get significant move higher in rates equity market will probably, take a breather here. >> carol we've got a market selling off dow industrials down 307 right now your reaction. >> yeah. i -- i mean i think this is obviously, a challenging, before the number the fed really is between a rock and a hard place. because, obviously, with these numbers, you know it seems tha
knapp former ceo heretage fellow andy pozner, barry knapp reaction to the cpi. >> well take june, juneble, and i have been arguing that 10-year note treasury market in general was not in the right place we are likely to get another round of you curve bear steepening like from august through october, going to be exceedingly did i for the treasury to place 519 billion coupon securities for sale next two quarters. in order to clear the market, likely to have to see rates, 10-year rates at...
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Apr 25, 2024
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let's bring in ironsides macro managing partner barry knapp.what caught my eye, your estimate of the natural rate now being 4%, just a month ago, larry summers ruffled a lot of feathers when he made the same assumption. what do you think others are not seeing? >> larry talked about the fiscal theory of the price level and the idea of running 7% budget deficits during an economic expansion, government spending at 24 to 25% of gdp raising aggregate demand higher than the economy can absorb it and causes higher trend inflation. for whatever reason the fed refuses to discuss this. we know the real reason is political. even when they hint about it, wahler, for example was pushed at the economic club of new york to talk about the deficits. he merely describes them as unsustainable, when the real issue is not so much that we're about to be on the verge of a european-style debt crisis, it is that it will cause higher trend inflation and that's where we're at. so there is other related issues. the fed's dismissal of higher trend productivity, overrelian
let's bring in ironsides macro managing partner barry knapp.what caught my eye, your estimate of the natural rate now being 4%, just a month ago, larry summers ruffled a lot of feathers when he made the same assumption. what do you think others are not seeing? >> larry talked about the fiscal theory of the price level and the idea of running 7% budget deficits during an economic expansion, government spending at 24 to 25% of gdp raising aggregate demand higher than the economy can absorb...
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barry knapp lace all that out. wall street and the game of illusion. that and much more on "making money" ♪. charles: so we had the really tense, you can almost say non-that lant session, at least the way it looked at the close. it played out on the bond market more so than equities. remember the adp jobs number came out it was a little stronger than everyone expected and nudged bonds higher toward the key breakout point, not the kind of breakout you like right? when that happened they felt the rate cut could be in jeopardy. of course we got ism services. it did come in as well as expected, even with the nuance of the report, prices paid, growth there slowed considerably. maybe the rate market is back on. the market started going done. there was tension. you could feel it all day long. the anxiety as powell started to speak. well he put everyone at ease. bond yields came down, the stock market rallied. listen still feels sluggish today, right? we got a little bit of spillover this morning. we're down off the highs earlier this morning. there is a lot o
barry knapp lace all that out. wall street and the game of illusion. that and much more on "making money" ♪. charles: so we had the really tense, you can almost say non-that lant session, at least the way it looked at the close. it played out on the bond market more so than equities. remember the adp jobs number came out it was a little stronger than everyone expected and nudged bonds higher toward the key breakout point, not the kind of breakout you like right? when that happened...
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Apr 29, 2024
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knapp had a nice comment on our survey, look, we can't do it without fiscal tightening or less fiscal input here the chair won't say anything about that and has no control. if the fiscal deficits are going to run the way they are, the fed chair has to deal with that, and that appears to be a reality, which brings me to another topic we probably shouldn't mitt we might get a qt announcement, and maybe an equally significant treasury funding announcement. so whatever you're drinking wednesday morning in terms of coffee, i would double it up it's going to be an interesting day. i'm looking right as we speak, i think this just moved on the treasury, quarterly financial estimates about the number to which they're going to have to borrow, and they look to me to be higher than prior estimates i wonder if that's why the stock market's lost like 100 points almost in the last five minutes, and the s&p now is, i don't know, about a range of a ten-point swing. it's up, now it's lower, too there's a lot of moving targets on a lot of different things >> it is a multi-varied occasion dan greenhaus w
knapp had a nice comment on our survey, look, we can't do it without fiscal tightening or less fiscal input here the chair won't say anything about that and has no control. if the fiscal deficits are going to run the way they are, the fed chair has to deal with that, and that appears to be a reality, which brings me to another topic we probably shouldn't mitt we might get a qt announcement, and maybe an equally significant treasury funding announcement. so whatever you're drinking wednesday...
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Apr 29, 2024
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barry knapp thinks the federal government should act, too inflation is likely to run above tag until and unless there is a fiscal policy tightening unemployment forecast is seen rising steadily from currently 3.8, to 4.3 by next year we'd be getting off cheap if we end there. 50% of respondents say the fed cannot hit the target of 2% without growth running below potential and the unemployment rate rising by half a point. how much the economy has to weaken, jon, for the fed to hit that target? that's one of the pressing questions for the central bank right now. >> steve, i'm a simple man i think in metaphor, right i'm not the senior economics reporter i think a high rate environment like this as being like the economy's car is coasting, right? and if we were to give the car more gas eventually it slows down and it's not slowing down that much yet, right so i mean, does something else need to happen with this car or is the coasting the slowing down from coasting going to be enough higher for longer to get us to where the fed says we need to go >> yeah. let me confuse you, jon. i know y
barry knapp thinks the federal government should act, too inflation is likely to run above tag until and unless there is a fiscal policy tightening unemployment forecast is seen rising steadily from currently 3.8, to 4.3 by next year we'd be getting off cheap if we end there. 50% of respondents say the fed cannot hit the target of 2% without growth running below potential and the unemployment rate rising by half a point. how much the economy has to weaken, jon, for the fed to hit that target?...
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Apr 17, 2024
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barry knapp. >> all right, melissa. >>> other news breaking out of deal book this morning. u.s.mission preparing to block coach parent cap in tapestry. the reporting suggests that they are planning to block this deal as of now. and you can look at that stock right now, capri holding sale off about 2% on the back of the news. >>> coming up on the other side, president biden's economic pitch in pittsburgh and his threat on tariffs in china. jared bernstein is going to join us to discuss their plans on these tariffs and maybe we'll debate some of the potential impact on inflation as well. and then later, the state of housing, home improvement and the price surge in everything from property taxes to mortgage rates, the property brothers are going to be our special guests in a little bit. we're coming right back. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sh
barry knapp. >> all right, melissa. >>> other news breaking out of deal book this morning. u.s.mission preparing to block coach parent cap in tapestry. the reporting suggests that they are planning to block this deal as of now. and you can look at that stock right now, capri holding sale off about 2% on the back of the news. >>> coming up on the other side, president biden's economic pitch in pittsburgh and his threat on tariffs in china. jared bernstein is going to join...