lael brainard. thank you. [applause] dr. brainard: i think, probably i should just leave now. that was so nice. thank you. it is always wonderful to be here. that was extremely kind. i am delighted to join you. after this institution has made so many contributions to thinking about the nature of the pandemic shocks and assessing the recovery. i know you will continue to make really important contributions that will inform our thinking. after the pandemic years brought an unprecedented amount of shock, it is disheartening -- it is incredibly heartening that the every process is so strong. it is a testament to the resilience of american workers, consumers and businesses. it is also an indication that smart policy can make a positive difference. every week that goes fight, we learn more about the recovery. yesterday's return to grew by 4.9% in the third quarter and today we learned that core pce inflation came down in september on and analyzed basis. that is the lowest level since day of .21. core pce inflation is running about 2.5 percent at an annualized rate. there are of cour

joining us now lael brainard -- wei li.have seen inflation coming down much faster than anybody really anticipated. the fed therefore can start cutting rates. the ecb can start cutting rates. are we convinced that this drop is durable? wei: well, so far inflation has been driven by goods deflation, goods disinflation. and today we have service disinflation as well. but wages are super key and wages are still persistent and not in line with inflation falling back to 2% targets. if you look at broader economic data they have been surprising on the outside as well. that needs to cool a little bit for us to be convinced that inflation dropping is durable. but not to mention geopolitical fragmentation that has been happening. two hot wars that are going on at the moment. and any kind of flareup and reaction to that could be inflationary too. so we definitely are not complacent that the full inflation is down and -- is done and dusted. inflation is going through a roller coaster, and so for goods disinflation can keep this immacu

lael brainard will join us in the next hour.ou'll see the dow impacted by nike, obviously, on pace for one of the worst sessions in several years, but the s&p looking to resume this upward climb. abt pnt oif we get a gainf ou11ois. back in a moment. de is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. (fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers are pretty much the same, but at fisher investments we're clearly different. (other money manager) different how? you sell high commission investment products, right? (fisher investments) nope. fisher avoids them. (other money manager) well, you must earn commissions on trades. (fisher investments) never at fisher investments. (other money manager)

director brainard, good to see you. >> good to be here. >> what's your reaction?t pick-up of inflation, but we did see that in the month over month numbers? >> i think the trend on inflation is very reassuring. it's pal what we would wish to see. inflation two-thirds. it's clearly trending down from here. and it's -- inflation has come down at a time when unemployment has remained below 4% for the longest stretch in 50 years against a back drop of really solid growth. so, that overall picture, i think, is very reassuring. >> it's reassuring to see it come down from multiyear highs andthe painful levels where we were, say, last year, but there's this school of thought worried about the last mile. how we get from 4% on core inflation to 2% where the fed wants it to be, and just how stubborn prices are at these levels. do you worry about that? >> i'm not worried about that. i feel like the underlying trend lies in inflation are good. we've seen grocery prices come down. we've seen prices at the pump come down. we've seen some of the core areas moving back down to pre

here's what lael brainard, white house director of the national economic council, had to say. >> it is really good to see we are closing out the year with inflation on a six-month basis at 2%. that is the pre-pandemic benchmark and it's a significant milestone. and if you look back over the course of the year, it is really stunning how much progress the economy has made. inflation has come down faster than even the more optimistic forecasts and growth has remain resilient. john: let's keep the conversation going. we are joined with some more context. stuart, let's start with the inflation story because i know you have been doing a deep dive into whether price pressures have truly been tamed. what is your conclusion? stuart: today's report is about as good of a holiday gift as jay powell could have hoped for. you have disinflation and dramatically slowing core inflation. outright deflation in core goods as firms rd stocking those inventories. and as you heard brainard say come on a six-month annualized basis, that brings inflation in line with the fed target, but if firms are successful

lael brainard said the purchase of the iconic american company from the foreign entity appears to deservecrutiny in terms of the impact on national security and supply chain reliability. if approved, the deal would create the world's second largest steel company. >>> berkshire hathaway continues to grow the stake in occidental petroleum. 5.2 million shares purchased on tuesday to bring the total to 43 million shares of the 27.7% stake. berkshire paid a price of $60 a share valuing the latest buy at $313 million. warren buffet started pbuying again after one month hiatus. >>> and apple watching are unavailable on their web site. it features a promotional image of the se, the lower cost model, introduced in 2022 which is not impacted by the patent dispute. >> we will have to wait and see with the watches. they are popular. >> i heard they won't work on your watches. they will only help you is through a software update. >> people love them. >> i have one. i love it. >> see you later on. >>> coming up on ""worldwide exchange," more could come including one word that investors need to know tod

guy: we will talk to lael brainard a little later. are we sure that we've got inflation beat?s it time to take a victory lap? are we convinced we can do that with a degree of certainty? what's the answer to that question? >> i wish i was in a position to answer that. i think it's important to say what we saw from the federal reserve's they opened the door to the rate cuts but they were very cautious in their language and they have been very cautious in terms of their data points in the big reason we have seen some changing and rhetoric is if there is a big change in inflation in the upcoming data, this path will change significantly. it's a separate question -- question whether marked of gone too far. they can price aggressively frontloading the message from the fed so there is room for disappointment and if you can imagine anything less than 100 basis points cuts will be disappointed to the markets. that will be a big sell off for markets. sonali: our thanks to our guests. thank you so much for your time and happy holidays. coming up, more on our question of the day -- how du

sonali: we spoke earlier to lael brainard, u.s. economic council, former fed vice chair. she's looking back at where we started the year and where we are now. let's take a listen. >> if you look back over the course of the year, it is stunning how much progress the economy has made. inflation has come down faster than even the more optimistic forecasts and growth has remain very resilient along with strong employment. if you recall year ago, consensus projections were that getting inflation down would require a spike in unemployment and a recession. sonali: to both of you, starting with robert, do we get through this cycle without a recession? robert: yeah, i think so. i think what we have seen over the past year is that this expansion is pretty resilient to the high interest rates. it has a lot more going for it. one aspect of that. hi immigration. it has boost to growth. but i think just intrinsic growth has been very firm. and so i think this moderating environment has been super for the bond market on average. i think it's going to be very dangerous for individuals, b

lael brainard at a time around why people are feeling bad if the economy is on a good trajectory.ing the disney princes collection from blendjet. six enchanting designs inspired by some of the most beloved disney princess characters of all time. blendjet 2 is portable which means you can blend anytime, anywhere. recharge quickly via usb-c it even cleans itself. just add water, a drop of soap, and blend. make your princess dreams come true. order yours now from blendjet.com. lisa: city, i am lisa abramowicz. the countdown to the open starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg: the open with jonathan ferro. lisa: coming up, disinflation

don't forget, he had lael brainard on his heels wanting his job, so i don't know about that whole transitoryi think they upside estimated inflation -- underestimated inflation in that period, but now they're overestimating it. thinking about a soft landing when you don't even know where the plane is, is troublesome. [laughter] >> good point. maria: jim grant, do you want to give us a prediction on your expectations for the macro story or the stock market in 2024 in. >> nope. [laughter] wait, wait, i'm supposed to. [laughter] oh, maria, markets will fluctuate, and it is my expectation they good luck if chait in such a way that -- fluctuate in such a way that demonstrates financial value for the investors rather than financial momentum. that that's my hope. maria: great conversation, even. we so appreciate your time, or tomas, congressman dan meuser, jim grant, rebecca walser, todd piro, cheryl casone, thank you so much. thank you so much for joining us, everybody. we will be back at it tomorrow morning, and i hope you'll join us then. have a great tuesday. "varney & company" picks it up. stu,

carol: that's lael brainard, the economic council director speaking on friday.tration sees the economy from fed speakers, we are expecting an aggressive rate cutting fed in 2024. that seems to be built-in but what happens is there is economic data and geopolitical and that's something we were reminded of this morning. katie: it matters chiefly for investors. you haven't really seen it in oil but maybe in the past week or so. you are starting to see crude price and some of the geopolitical risks we know are multiplying. carol: let's take a look at crude oil because there is momentum to the upside. you see the trade in real-time continue to edge higher. a significant move. the u.s. military launched strikes on three locations in iraq targeting what's said to be a terrorist group backed by iran. we are watching what's going on the middle east. we have the former senior u.s. intelligence official and senior advisor of the transitional threat project joining us on this tuesday. what do we need to be thinking about as we continue to watch headlines and what seems to b

these very sharp credible people in the white house, an old friend of this program thinking of lael brainardevery single week why aren't we hearing from them? >> i think the smoothness of the machinery is not what it was two years ago but what can be said without question is this will get written about four or six years out. >> the problem is what is the message? the reason why is we are pumping record oil. >> they can because it's against their script. there are a lot of things that should feel a lot better. you are seeing that in pockets but -- >> i love the crude production story. republicans get around saying we are not pumping enough crude and no one in the white house wants to correct them. precisely from the point you are making. >> is their script to be positive, that's a key thing. jonathan: good morning. ♪ jonathan: what a big 48 hours coming up. cpi this morning that on to the federal reserve. totally unchanged after two days of gains on the nasdaq. tech struggled yesterday with the s&p did ok. tom: spx went up. all of the magnificent seven dipped. but you are right there was a re

month over month height per month over month inflation dynamics versus this phrase i am using from lael brainardcumulative inflation. don't tell me wells fargo clients aren't agonizing over the cumulative inflation of the pandemic. >> i think it depends where you sit in the economy right now. investors and policymakers are looking very much more at some of the short-term trends in inflation so focusing on not just what we will see in terms of headline cpi tomorrow and the month over month changes but what we are looking at on the three month annualized rate will be expect core cpi to be little change at 3.5% on that annualized basis but when you step back and think about the cumulative inflation a lot of consumers are still feeling so the fact you've seen the price level rise close to 20% in just four years so yes we are seeing inflation flow but consumers aren't really feeling that. they are still seeing a high level of prices which is contributing to some consumer fatigue we are starting to see develop and we think will carry on. >> this could potentially create a sense that inflation is plate

brainard says the deal deserves scrutiny over the impacts on the national security and supply chain liability. she says the deal is the type of transaction of cifius. >> u.s. steel. u.s. steel. >> if it were china, andrew, it would immediately raise brows. this was something where the u.s. senator who lives there, raised questions about it. he lives across the street from the plant. quickly, that got picked up in washington. we'll see. >> that's what we talked about with pat toomey yesterday about. >>> the department of transportation is reviewing the frequent flyer programs of airlines for deceptive practices. it has been meeting in recent weeks to discuss transparency practices with award tickets and transfer of miles. the big issue is the devaluation or inflation or deflation of the value of all of these things. i don't know -- it's in the fine print. >> you can pay your wifi with it. >> or pay $8. >> you have to go to the points guy. you should never been using it for wifi. never buy presents on the web site. the worst use case. >> yeah. the terrible case. $8 or 80,000 miles. maybe it is