bruce kasman, a real pleasure having you on the show.nd bruce, let's start with this because your forecast expects growth in the global economy to slow over the next 12 months. and if we look, let's take germany as an example. one major economy, it's already seen a recession. so, bruce, do you think others will follow? i'm just wondering, which countries do you expect to do particularly well and which ones not so well? the way we're looking at the world right now is that there's a tension between the underlying resilience and health of the global economy, which should continue to propel things forward. and i want to emphasise there, the united states and emerging markets all have really solid fundamentals. and if we can continue to move forward here, i think both regions are going to do particularly well. i think the tension here is that we still have persistent inflation. and while markets have become more optimistic that central bankers are going to be able to take their feet off their brake in 2024, we're somewhat sceptical of that. s

bruce kasman, a real pleasure having you on the show.ruce, let's start with this because your forecast expects growth in the global economy to slow over the next 12 months. and if we look, let's take germany as an example. one major economy, it's already seen a recession. so, bruce, do you think others will follow? i'm just wondering, which countries do you expect to do particularly well and which ones not so well? the way we're looking at the world right now is that there's a tension between the underlying resilience and health of the global economy, which should continue to propel things forward. the way we're looking at the world right now is that there's a tension between the underlying resilience and health of the global economy, which should continue to propel things forward. and i want to emphasise there, the united states and emerging markets all have really solid fundamentals. and if we can continue to move forward here, i think both regions are going to do particularly well. i think the tension here is that we still have persis

my colleague aaron heslehurst has been talking tojp morgan's chief economist bruce kasman and he beganthink the central bank community doesn't needed to get all the way back before they can consider the whole of 2024 we get — can consider the whole of 2024 we get a — can consider the whole of 2024 we get a substantial one, when the brinks _ we get a substantial one, when the brinks underlying inflation below— the brinks underlying inflation below 3% and give central banks the confidence to get into it and — the confidence to get into it and that— the confidence to get into it and that looks like a reasonable scenario but by no means — reasonable scenario but by no means for— reasonable scenario but by no means for sure that it's going to happen and that is the key question— to happen and that is the key question of 2024.— to happen and that is the key question of 2024. when it comes to consumer _ question of 2024. when it comes to consumer spending, _ question of 2024. when it comes to consumer spending, what - to consumer spending, what differences do you see in different parts of the

kasman, chief economist at the banking giant, jp morgan, about what to expext in 202a.slehurst asked him whether inflation in europe and the us finally would fall back to the 2% that central banks want. i think the answer to that is no but i think this central bank community doesn't need to get them back to 2% before they can consider easing. while get an incomplete unwind of inflation in 2024, you get a substantial enough one, one that brings underlying inflation below 3% and gives central banks of the confidence to begin to take their feet off the break. that looks like a reasonable scenario but it is by no means for sure that it is going to happen and that is in some basic sense the key question about 2024. when it comes to _ question about 2024. when it comes to consumer _ question about 2024. when it| comes to consumer spending, what differences do you see in different parts of the world? it continues to be pretty strong in the us but less so in europe. could that be the difference between growth and recession? h0 difference between growth and recession?— since the